# Corona virus (COVID-19)



## John-H

Countries affected by the coronavirus March 12 6:33am GMT 
Country	Confirmed cases	Deaths

China	80,932	3,172
Italy	12,462	827
Iran	9,000	354
South Korea	7,869	66
France	2,284	48
Spain	2,277	55
Germany	1,966	3
US	1,312	38
Switzerland	652	4
Japan	639	16
Norway	629	0
Denmark	516	0
Netherlands	503	5
Sweden	500	1
UK	459	8
Belgium	314	3
Qatar	262	0
Austria	246	0
Bahrain	195	0
Singapore	178	0
Malaysia	149	0
Australia	128	3
Canada	117	1
Israel	109	0
Greece	99	1
Czech Republic	94	0
Iceland	85	0
United Arab Emirates	74	0
Kuwait	72	0
Iraq	71	7
India	62	1
San Marino	62	2
Lebanon	61	3
Egypt	60	1
Finland	59	0
Portugal	59	0
Thailand	59	1
Slovenia	57	0
Brazil	52	0
Philippines	49	2
Taiwan	48	1
Romania	47	0
Saudi Arabia	45	0
Ireland	43	1
Vietnam	38	0
Indonesia	34	1
Poland	31	0
Palestinian Authorities	26	0
Georgia	24	0
Chile	23	0
Costa Rica	22	0
Algeria	20	0
Russia	20	0
Argentina	19	1
Croatia	19	0
Pakistan	19	0
Oman	18	0
Ecuador	17	0
Estonia	16	0
Albania	15	1
Hungary	13	0
Peru	13	0
South Africa	13	0
Mexico	12	0
Serbia	12	0
Azerbaijan	11	0
Brunei	11	0
Latvia	10	0
Slovakia	10	0
Belarus	9	0
Colombia	9	0
Maldives	8	0
Panama	8	1
Afghanistan	7	0
Bosnia and Herzegovina	7	0
Bulgaria	7	1
Luxembourg	7	0
North Macedonia	7	0
Tunisia	7	0
Cyprus	6	0
Malta	6	0
Morocco	6	1
Dominican Republic	5	0
French Guiana	5	0
New Zealand	5	0
Paraguay	5	0
Senegal	4	0
Bangladesh	3	0
Cambodia	3	0
Cuba	3	0
Lithuania	3	0
Martinique	3	0
Moldova	3	0
Bolivia	2	0
Burkina Faso	2	0
Cameroon	2	0
Honduras	2	0
Jamaica	2	0
Nigeria	2	0
Sri Lanka	2	0
Andorra	1	0
Armenia	1	0
Bhutan	1	0
Congo	1	0
Guyana	1	1
Ivory Coast	1	0
Jordan	1	0
Liechtenstein	1	0
Monaco	1	0
Mongolia	1	0
Nepal	1	0
Reunion	1	0
Togo	1	0
Turkey	1	0
Ukraine	1	0
Vatican City	1	0
Diamond Princess	696	7

Source: https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f ... 5839e06441

*EDIT UPDATE:*

*THE MORTALITY RATE OF COVID-19 IS 30 TO 40 TIMES THAT OF FLU AND THERE IS NO VACCINE FOR PREVENTION OR ANTIVIRAL DRUG DRUG THERAPY AVAILABLE FOR TREATMENT.

80% of infections are mild or asymptomatic, 15% are severe infection, requiring oxygen and 5% are critical infections, requiring ventilation.
*

Latest update 28th April:



















UK tend since 21st March updated 28th April - Update from tonight's Government briefing. Totals of people who have tested positive and cumulative deaths are still increasing but the current number actively hospitalised has plateaued. The death rate is likely to lag by around two weeks. Deaths are recorded as those who have tested positive and died in hospital. Office for National Statistics data showed there were 2,000 corona virus care home deaths in the week ending 17 April, double the previous week.

It brings the total number of deaths in care homes linked to the virus since the start of the pandemic to 3,096.:










This is the daily death reporting on a linear scale with lock-down and lock-down easing events marked to help spot any trends of resurgence. There was a two to three week delay from lock-down being applied to bringing the R < 1 reflected in the daily death rate. A similar delay may be expected for further changes.










Sources:
https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

There are fact and bias checking websites with some very useful information:

https://fullfact.org
https://mediabiasfactcheck.com


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## bobclive22

*US *confirmed cases *1,312,* Deaths *38*, Coronavirus.

*Eighty thousand Americans died of the the flu last season*, according to preliminary data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Seasonal influenza is a killer, even in milder years. Lately, mild flu seasons tend to kill about 12,000 Americans, and more severe flu seasons kill up to *56,000*.

But *80,000* deaths is an unusually large toll. Here's what led to the massive spike - and why you should get your flu shot.

https://www.vox.com/2018/9/27/17910318/ ... break-shot

Singapore 178 deaths 0. Coronavirus.



> The World Health Organization (WHO) declared a public health emergency on 24 Apr 2009, while Singapore's first imported case of H1N1 was confirmed on 26 May 2009.
> By 12 Feb 2010, about 415,000 people in Singapore had been infected.


https://mustsharenews.com/virus-outbreaks-singapore/

Italy is an outlier why?.

Why the panic?.


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## LVS

Ref: Italy
My understanding is there is a contingent of Chinese garment manufacturers based in that country, if they went home for Chinese New Year celebrations then returned with the virus, then they may have infected their products.


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## John-H

Apparently it doesn't survive long on surfaces - minutes or hours so I heard but the virus particles are very small of the order of 80nm - 160nm so can be carried some distance on tiny moisture particles from deep in the lungs but you need a reasonable amount to become infected. So close proximity for longer periods is more likely to transfer etc.
EDIT - see later clarification ***


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## bobclive22

It appears Italy has a rather large Chinese community.

*Prato,* Tuscany has the largest concentration of Chinese people in Italy and *all of Europe*. It has the second largest population of Chinese people overall in Italy *after Milan*

*Lodi* is epicentre of Corona outbreak, Milan has second largest Chinese population after Prato,
The driving distance from *Lodi,* Italy to *Milan,* Italy is *22 miles* / 35 km

Cities with significant Chinese communities

The "Rome Chinatown". Rome, along with Milan and Prato, contains the most significant Chinese community in Italy.

The Prato Chinatown, along with the Milan Chinatown and Rome Chinatown, is the biggest and most important in Italy.

Milan Chinese 18,918 (1.43% on total resident population)


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## roddy

bobclive22 said:


> *US *confirmed cases *1,312,* Deaths *38*, Coronavirus.
> 
> *Eighty thousand Americans died of the the flu last season*, according to preliminary data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
> Seasonal influenza is a killer, even in milder years. Lately, mild flu seasons tend to kill about 12,000 Americans, and more severe flu seasons kill up to *56,000*.
> 
> But *80,000* deaths is an unusually large toll. Here's what led to the massive spike - and why you should get your flu shot.
> 
> https://www.vox.com/2018/9/27/17910318/ ... break-shot
> 
> Singapore 178 deaths 0. Coronavirus.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The World Health Organization (WHO) declared a public health emergency on 24 Apr 2009, while Singapore's first imported case of H1N1 was confirmed on 26 May 2009.
> By 12 Feb 2010, about 415,000 people in Singapore had been infected.
> 
> 
> 
> https://mustsharenews.com/virus-outbreaks-singapore/
> 
> Italy is an outlier why?.
> 
> Why the panic?.
Click to expand...

 " why the panic ? " indeed,, very good question ,,, Facebook , who can not filter out paedophiles or child porn or bank skammers mange to filter out all conspiracy theory posts , certainly makes me think , there are some very good articles around . for sure it is most important to protect ones self and others but still it is interesting as to where and how it came from ,,, and why .


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## John-H

There was a good programme on Radio 4 yesterday "Inside science" explaining the origins of the virus and it's spread:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000g3gf

Crates of live animals one on top of another in Chinese wet markets, bringing together animals and humans that don't usually come into contact with each other, provides an excellent mixing ground for viruses to mutate and hop species. It's happened before with a number of other viruses such as SARS but that one died out before efforts to develop a vaccine were needed.

COVAD-19 seems to spread better due to its mobility and the incubation period hiding the evidence. It's also more deadly in the final stages than flu mainly affecting the weak and elderly but less so in the young. A vaccine is unlikely to be ready for a year or more.

We seem to be getting mixed messages on what to do from some very good experts but tied to political motivations a well as dubious reasoning.

We had Johnson at a press conference saying he shook hands with everybody at a hospital treating COVID-19 patients the other day and sounding rather dangerous and bumbling whilst his exasperated expert sat next to him advised "wash your hands" and we have Trump spouting nonsense ranging from fake news to - him saying doctors have told him he has so much natural insight about viruses he wonders why he ran for president!

We also have some very good reporting but there are some far reaching and significant effects to come out of this.

By Monday Italy was in total lockdown - the whole country of 60 million people, with a ban on public assembly, schools, universities and cinemas closed, everyone ordered to stay at home and curfew after 6pm enforced by police and army. Their hospitals are at the point of collapse because they don't have enough intensive care beds.

Meanwhile in the UK we are avoiding taking such measures but the government is now asking us to self isolate if we have any even mild symptoms of sore throat or cough.

The big difference with the UK is that we run our hospitals at 95% to 100% capacity after ten years of bed cuts and efficiency drives. Most other EU countries run their hospitals at 80% capacity which is why we have frequent blockages with patients held in corridors and waiting in ambulances delaying call out response .... and they don't.

The danger is that if the same thing happens here the death toll will rise quicker because we don't have the intensive care beds to look after mainly the elderly - which the virus affects more.

We also have a significantly higher percentage of population over 65 - around 20+% in Europe compared to around half the proportion in China with a younger population used to following government orders to take effective measures - they are at the point of turning things around there but we have a long way to go.

On Monday Italy had more than 9,100 confirmed infections, and more than 460 people had died.

In the UK, there were then 319 confirmed cases of Covid-19 on the Monday, a rise of 46 since the same time the previous day on Sunday.

The government are seen as acting too slow to take precautions, notably commented on by Jeremy Hunt the former Health secretary, meanwhile our infections are doubling every four days which by my calculation would put us on a par with Italy in less than 20 days on from the start of the week - and unable to cope sooner because of our overstretched NHS.

We also have lots of people on zero hours contracts and self employed who can't afford to take time off work - a system encouraged by the government. They won't get sick pay so will tend to struggle on infecting others rather than self isolate. The budget saw a measure to allow them to immediately claim benefit but I haven't heard of a measure to remove the five week wait for Universal Credit - so who would take that option?

The UK seem to be holding back on the more stringent measures other countries are taking. The epidemiologists are modeling the spread of the virus from the data gathered from a well run testing programme but the holding back of known to be effective action seems to be motivated by concerns over the prediction of public behaviour - not wanting either to cause panic or have people ignore instructions because the problem doesn't seem serious enough yet - rather than head off the problem effectively like they have done in Hong Kong and Singapore (see the graph at the top).

We've already had some reports of people fighting over toilet rolls in supermarkets and certainly my local Tesco was unbelievably out of all toilet rolls and pasta so you can see some reason for managing messages.

But perhaps they should explain things better rather than presume we won't understand leading to panic.

Meanwhile in the USA the situation is worse with a severe lack of available testing kits - one state of 10 million people with only a few hundred kits available for example. Kits are only available to those with health insurance and if you claim you have to pay the insurance excess first. Those without insurance would have to pay a huge cost even if they could get one. Many migrants fear going to hospital for fear of being deported. There is no Central command of healthcare. Hospitals are responsible to their shareholders and their response uncoordinated. The extent of the spread in the USA is very unclear but the dead will be easier to count.

Trump is more concerned about his re-election prospects from the effect on stock markets and had been trying to talk down the problem claiming the virus was a hoax initially but whilst he's more used to attacking his rivals on Twitter the virus doesn't have a Twitter account (as John Sopel so aptly put it) and carries on regardless.

Trump has now resorted to blaming others for the inevitable disaster and tried to blame the EU and banned air travel from there but not the UK - a politically motivated decision without justification and which is now having the opposite effect by spooking the markets with a huge blow to the aviation industry from which it might not recover.

As if to add to the contradiction the wife of the Canadian Prime Minister has tested positive after a visit to London.

Here if the government don't act with stronger measures soon or perhaps even if they do we'll possibly still end up in crusis and if we fare worse than other countries the government will likely get the blame for its management of the virus and policies over the last 10 years which have left us with an underfunded, understaffed and overloaded health service.

We've got another crisis to look forward to when the Brexit transition period ends on December 31st - if Johnson goes for no deal WTO we'll have more than toilet roll shortages to worry about. Will he try to blame the Brexit chaos on COVID-19? It would seem madness to walk into yet another crisis.


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## ashfinlayson

John-H said:


> Apparently it doesn't survive long on surfaces - minutes or hours so I heard but the virus particles are very small of the order of 80nm - 160nm so can be carried some distance on tiny moisture particles from deep in the lungs but you need a reasonable amount to become infected. So close proximity for longer periods is more likely to transfer etc.
> EDIT - see later clarification ***


Interesting, I read somewhere a week or so ago that it can live for up to 2 days on a surface. There is already so much misinformation going round that I've basically switched off the news entirely to it and only taking notice official statements. If more people did the same, we wouldn't have all this ridiculous panic buying. I had to try and explain to my 2-year-old yesterday that she couldn't have cheesy pasta for lunch because there is literally not a shop in town that has an pasta of any kind. It's all getting a bit silly


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## roddy

China accuses Usa of bringing corona into Wuhan ,,,, would not surprise me


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## John-H

Yes, there's a lot of misinformation and a lot of hype and misrepresentation. I heard on the BBC that a hand sanitiser gel needs to be 60% alcohol to be effective against the virus. I came across a gel being used but it didn't have an alcohol content on the label. The company emailed it was 70% but I looked up the HSE data sheet and it listed ethanol content to be 1% to 10%. Still waiting for an explanation from the company.

As for pasta and toilet rolls I keep thinking why but can't get to the bottom of it.


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## roddy

good old fashioned Dettol


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## bobclive22

> I've basically switched off the news entirely to it and only taking notice official statements. If more people did the same, we wouldn't have all this ridiculous panic buying.


Like this, 11 UK sad deaths, all had underlying health problems and all over 60 years old, the majority of the panic buying is by the younger generation. Can`t find the number of 2019-20 UK Flu deaths.

https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/uk ... n-17902704


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## ashfinlayson

It isn't flu bob, it's a respiratory disease that is more likely to cause infection in anyone that doesn't have healthy lungs. I expect anyone that is often exposed to fumes/dust, smokers asthma sufferers etc is at higher risk. Unfortunately the government have opted to protect the economy over the population as it is not possible to do both. Relying on building a heard immunity means a great many more people will die over the coming weeks and months.


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## John-H

I can't believe the government have opted to stop testing and go for herd immunity in the population instead. That's not management that's abrogation of responsibility .

Heard immunity works when you have a vaccine and you vaccinate enough of the population to cause a virus to be eradicated or limit its progress enough not to be a problem. It depends on infectivity. For measles you need about 95% of the population immune because it transfers to 18 others on average, for flu it's about 60% because you only pass on infection to between 1 to 1.5 people. For this COVID-19 (transfers to about two) it'll be something like about 70% of the population. BUT WE HAVEN'T GOT A VACCINE!

That means to get natural herd immunity without a vaccine we'll need about 45 million people infected and even if the death rate is 1% that's half a million deaths. That's not management it's a disaster.

Plus without testing we won't even know we've got there.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/heal ... html%3famp


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## leopard

Think about it... You've got all these coffin dodgers being kept alive by all sorts of medication to cheat death by a few more measley years. It's just nature's angle to thin the population out, selective culling if you will and the fittest and strongest remain.

There's always something lurking to take over whatever it is that we as a human race has conquered, take the plague for example.

It's the governments chance now to save money on the old age pension and related benefits and to free up the housing stock. It could be a game changer for the younger generation...


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## bobclive22

> I can't believe the government have opted to stop testing and go for herd immunity in the population instead. That's not management that's abrogation of responsibility .


USA.

BY THE NUMBERS, Via the CDC: *2019 Flu *- 22,000 Dead and 36 Million Infected &#8230;*2019 Coronavirus* - 50 Dead and 2,340 Infected.

Q: Who has died so far?

A. These were compiled using CDC reports plus news and local health department reports: 

31 Washington State elderly. That includes 27 in King County, (22 at the same elderly nursing facility in Kirkland), three in Snohomish county, and one in Grant County, a patient in their 80s.

Seems to to be an exercise on world population control by the UN maybe.

Four California elderly: A woman in assisted living in her 90s, a hospitalized woman Santa Clara in her 60s, an "elderly man" in assisted living, and a 71-year-old man with underlying health conditions who'd been on a Grand Princess cruise ship.

Two Florida residents in their 70s who had traveled overseas.

One New Jersey diabetic man, 69, who suffered two cardiac arrests.

One South Dakota man aged 60-69, with "underlying medical conditions"

One Georgia man, 67, with "underlying medical conditions"

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/0 ... lity-rate/


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## bobclive22

> It could be a game changer for the *younger generation*...


Shopping in Sainsbury`s last night, 2 young males late 20`s wearing masks, everyone else including 79 year old me plus many more old farts just carried on as normal. :roll: :roll:

Coronavirus Testing - Coming Very Soon There Will be *an APP for That*, What can go wrong?, read the comments.

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/20 ... ore-186294


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## bobclive22

Coronavirus Testing - Coming Very Soon, there Will be *an APP *for That, what can go wrong? :wink:

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/20 ... ore-186294


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## John-H

bobclive22 said:


> Shopping in Sainsbury`s last night, 2 young males late 20`s wearing masks, everyone else including 79 year old me plus many more old farts just carried on as normal. :roll: :roll:


Nice of them to protect you Bob.

That is the point of the mask - to protect others, not the wearer.

They are of little use outside of a medically regulated environment though. People still tend to touch the mask and then surfaces, let them get too damp, re-use them fail to wash their hands, touch their face etc.

To protect the wearer they need to be at least FFP2 in the EU (N95 USA) and be fitted properly, single use and hygienically handled.

*** An update on how long the virus lasts on surfaces and why the figures vary:... It lasts on hard surfaces longest possibly up to 48 hours or longer in colder damp environments. On soft surfaces like clothing, not long at all. Warm drying weather helps too.

The reason is - when an infected person coughs they breath out a mist of water droplets of varying size that contain the virus in suspension. If the droplet lands on a hard surface it tends to sit there as a droplet with the virus protected inside. That's when someone else can pick it up on their hand then touch their face and become infected.

If the droplet lands on a soft surface the moisture tends to be absorbed so the virus falls out of suspension and with no protection can easily be damaged and doesn't survive perhaps even minutes.

You can become infected by directly breathing in coughed out virus containing water droplets. You won't get infected by touching a contaminated water droplet with your hand but you can if you subsequently rub your eyes or lick your fingers etc. You break the cycle by not touching your face until after you have washed your hands or used a 60+% alcohol hand sanitiser.


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## SwissJetPilot

Post deleted by user.


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## bobclive22

> That is the point of the mask - to protect others, not the wearer.


So the two in question had the virus and were protecting others, or they were paranoid and thought the mask would protect them from anyone who had the virus.


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## bobclive22

> Nice visual score card from Johns Hopkins University -


Just found that here in comments, I wonder if they do one for FLU. https://theconservativetreehouse.com/20 ... ore-186414


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## StuartDB

bobclive22 said:


> It could be a game changer for the *younger generation*...
> 
> 
> 
> Shopping in Sainsbury`s last night, 2 young males late 20`s wearing masks, everyone else including 79 year old me plus many more old farts just carried on as normal. :roll: :roll:
> 
> Coronavirus Testing - Coming Very Soon There Will be *an APP for That*, What can go wrong?, read the comments.
> 
> https://theconservativ000000etreehouse. ... u0e-186294
Click to expand...

This pneumonia is untreatable, all the gas exchange air sacks excrete fluid (usually just a patch) , they are building algorithms to determine priorities of who will get a ventilator, and as you get older irrespctive of personal fitness you cannot fight the virus, the current predications are at the peak we will be 300 people requiring each ventilator. In the next few weeks over 70s or respiratory comprised people will be self isolating for months. Discussions over purposely infecting young healthy people to care for the ill once sort of immune.

If you look at the figubruisedhttps://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

And click on Italy out of "confirmed cases with an outcome" the death rate is 42% ( that's because no more ventilators)

When my wife had her pulmonary-endartarectumy at Papworth she got a reperfusion injury which meant it took 10 days on a ventilator to 'wake up' that's because her gas exchange cells were essentially bruised meaning the don't get any oxygen or expell the co2. During the I expect they'll give you 2 days to show signs of recovery.

This whole disease feels "man made" even though men are more likely to die. On an upside there'll be more houses, and come December a shed load more babies. No sport working from home.

Why are they having sports shows on the radio still?

I cannot believe the UK are submitting the recovered data? As on worldometer web site UK only have 18 recovered and 35 dead which is quite a high death rate. Obviously, it's difficult to measure fatality rates. Really need a large demographic all infected on same day and then the last of the group has recovered or died use those bits of data.

What I would f****** love is if English football league is cancelled this season. No Liverpool Champions of Premier League and no promotion of Leeds


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## StuartDB

Italy will overtake China in numbers in a few weeks last 24 hours 3500 new confirmed cases and 368 deaths that's 15 people dying on a ventilator every hour.

I couldn't buy stuff from China the other day, got my money back with message saying their factory had shut down. Italy only has food shops and pharmacy open, parks are off limits.



















My son just got back from skiing in Austria yesterday, we told him he cannot visit us for a few weeks.. Then about 2 hours later new guidance anyone from Switzerland, Austria, France, Italy to self isolate for 2 or 3 weeks. He just recently started working at a gym due to open this week, after leaving an engineering company as a Machine operator... But who on earth will join a gym right now?


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## SwissJetPilot

Post deleted by user.


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## bobclive22

Influenza and Pneumonia	No 3	killer world wide deaths in 2017 - * 3,177,204 *

https://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/wor ... tal-deaths world Flu deaths

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboar ... 7b48e9ecf6

Latest numbers for UK,

UK Population 67,886,000
Confirmed Cases 1,551
Total Deaths 37

Lets say we double the confirmed cases to 3,100, that means there is still only a 0.005% chance of catching it in the first place. 3,100/67,886,000 x 100 = 0.005%
If we double the deaths to 74 that means you have a 2.3% chance of dying from it but you have to catch it in the first place.

It`s a bit like relative risk with Statin studies.

https://heated.medium.com/theres-an-epi ... 6e0697185b


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## kevin#34

now it's global, soon or later it will spread massively in all europe, no exceptions... 
probably with spring/summer arrival it will go down, to restart again in autumn/winter...


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## bobclive22

> now it's global, soon or later it will spread massively in all europe, no exceptions...
> probably with spring/summer arrival it will go down, to restart again in autumn/winter...


https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resour ... demic.html


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## John-H

Well, COVID-19, even if the death rate turns out only to be 1% could cause half a million deaths in the UK alone - so it's a tad more serious. And the efforts to head it off will cause huge economic effects. Trying to say it's just like flu doesn't readily help.


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## John-H

So tonight, we seem to have an inferred u-turn on the herd immunity target and instead a million hospitality businesses have just been told they won't have any customers tomorrow for 12 weeks? It was a recommendation rather than an order so any business insurance won't apply.

Many businesses will go bust. Where's the support?

There seems to be realisation, catch up and reaction with no plan to go with the announcements.

It was the same when they said oldies will have to stay at home with no reassurance over supply of food and medicines.

Before that it was no plan to close sports venues, overtaken by the promoters decisions and caught up by government.

For whatever reason we are now converging with mainland Europe and WTO recommendations.

We are badly prepared however with not enough ventilators and NHS staff to run them.

JCB were approached to manufacture ventilators but said that although they were willing to help they cited as a difficulty (1) the lack of a design, and (2) source of components.

This really isn't like making Spitfires for WW2 but Dad's Army thinking and desperation does spring to mind.

Do you think the herd immunity idea was favored because we aren't prepared?

Why don't we all stay at home for four weeks and the government pass legislation making all financial transactions and consequences invalid and inconsequential for the period so normal service can be resumed when the four weeks is up and the virus is defunct through lack of spread.

At least give quantative easing based on turnover to businesses to the same aim.


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## HOGG

It would have been worse if we had stayed in the EU

Sent from my SM-G930F using Tapatalk


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## John-H

HOGG said:


> It would have been worse if we had stayed in the EU
> 
> Sent from my SM-G930F using Tapatalk


Utter rubbish. Now we are out of the European Medicines Agency we won't have priority access to a vaccine through them to say nothing of no longer being host to the operation and the loss of jobs.

The panic buying we see and shortages in shops is just a foretaste to leaving without a deal on December 31st. We'll have a lot more than loo rolls to worry about.


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## ilNannino

Hello everyone, I am in northern Italy (Bolzano) and here the situation is not beautiful. Since the beginning of February we had the first cases of COVID-19 and we are doing a lot of checks and finding many sick people. Fortunately the tampons are free and paid by the state, while I understand that in UK they are not paid by the state. Is that correct?

Thanks to the treatment some people have been able to recover from their illness.

What I can advise you is to wash your hands often, drink hot drinks and try to get out of the house as little as possible. These are the recommendations we are making here in Italy.
My partner and I have been smartworking for a week now and it is really difficult not to leave the house for a walk all this time. We only go out to go to the supermarket.

I do not want to impress you but from what I understand the rest of Europe will notice the virus a few weeks later than in Italy, I just want to try to warn you.


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## John-H

Thank you for your comments and interesting about the tampons. Yes we have to pay for them.

It is a worrying time. It is good to see your government taking decisive action to look after its people as I hope our's will too. It's important that we all work together and gather and share information to defeat this virus and it's consequences.

Stay safe and I hope we all get back to the sanity of normal life soon.


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## roddy

good leveled posts / advice there john.


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## Toshiba

John-H said:


> HOGG said:
> 
> 
> 
> It would have been worse if we had stayed in the EU
> 
> Sent from my SM-G930F using Tapatalk
> 
> 
> 
> Utter rubbish. Now we are out of the European Medicines Agency we won't have priority access to a vaccine through them to say nothing of no longer being host to the operation and the loss of jobs.
> 
> The panic buying we see and shortages in shops is just a foretaste to leaving without a deal on December 31st. We'll have a lot more than loo rolls to worry about.
Click to expand...

I previously worked for a biotech company and membership of a political union makes 0 difference in or out. Thats just dumb politics.

The UK has viral factories and major labs that are well suited to creating a vaccine, but the prospect of a cure in the near term are low. UK is already working on a vaccine (as are others) but there is not a single strain for this outbreak, viruses mutate. Then you have the stage that takes all the time and effort, trials and approval...


----------



## John-H

It helps to look up the European Medicines Agency and it's function:

https://www.ema.europa.eu/en

EMA to support development of vaccines and treatments for novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19):

https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/news/ema-s ... e-covid-19

Brexit means coronavirus vaccine will be slower to reach the UK:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.thegua ... -expensive


----------



## Toshiba

Slower from where? Novartis based in switzerland? it's just project fear again and I'm a remainer!
*"The current arrangements for this seamless trade and the supply of medicines between EU Member States and the UK will remain in place until the end of the transition period."*

GSK is a global company with major manufacturing in the US and UK, R&D, viral labs are in the US and UK, not EU.(unless you include the Roche tie up). GSK developed the H1N1 vaccines. 
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/busi ... 69653.html

At this stage it's unclear "who" or "where" a vaccine will be developed and the chances of it coming from the EU are "unknown". More alarm and unfounded claims are not needed. leave that for governments.


----------



## John-H

It's not just whether it's developed in the EU or not. It's also to do with the most attractive market whichever drug company decides to get regulatory approval and then who has the clout to negotiate the best price and availability. We don't have a regulatory framework as we are still operating under the EMA until December 31st but a vaccine may not be available for 12 to 18 months.

"Vaccine makers and drug companies may decide to first seek approval from the EMA, which represents some 500 million patients, before seeking approval from the UK MHRA, which covers a smaller patient pool."
Asked about the prospect of the UK having to pay higher prices for a vaccine, he said: "If a coronavirus vaccine is developed, EU countries may choose to band together to jointly procure the vaccine. This would give EU countries more bargaining power against a vaccine maker to try to secure a lower price. If the UK were excluded from such a joint procurement scheme, it's possible that the UK would end up paying a higher price than the EU for the same vaccine."

EMA was based in London until January last year, when Brexit saw it relocate to Amsterdam.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... -cost-more


----------



## bobclive22

> Well, COVID-19, even if the death rate turns out only to be 1% could cause half a million deaths in the UK alone - so it's a tad more serious. And the efforts to head it off will cause huge economic effects. Trying to say it's just like flu doesn't readily help.


Daily Mail



> How cases of the killer coronavirus are spiralling in London and New York
> *480* patients have been infected in England's capital, home to *8.8million people*
> In comparison, 463 cases have been confirmed in New York City, figures show
> MailOnline can reveal currently 1 case is confirmed for every 18,333 Londoners
> The rate in New York is 1 case for every 18,575 residents, according to statistics


Normally the press love percentages, not in this case though as percentages look less frightening.

1 case for every 18,575 residents or* 0.0054%* of actually catching the virus and then a 1% chance of dying from it.
I can see why Londoners are not to concerned.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... l#comments



> Shutdown, what shutdown? London stays open for business as cafes, shops and pubs flout government advice to close for 12 weeks amid confusion over coronavirus lockdown


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... -down.html


----------



## John-H

Bob, we are expecting most people will get the virus not just those presented when you last read the Daily Mail.

Peter Hennessy the historian has commented that our history will be defined as BC and AC by next year.


----------



## JorgeTTCQ

Hello everyone,
I am in Spain, and thanks to our stupid government that allow a 150.000 people demonstration at Madrid last 8 March, when the health authority knows that was a big risk, now we have *11.178 people infected and 491 people death*.
Commerce and industry stopped, schools and university, people is at home for two weeks (but I am sure it will be for more time).
A complete disaster.

Stay safe!


----------



## StuartDB

Coronavirus is nothing to do with Brexit, it would have been better if we had left on March 29 2019 then we would know who's here - doing what.

Considering a German company (part of the EU) on the brink of getting the vaccine sorted (another 1,000,000,000 infections first) has just been bought by the US, why on earth do people think being part of the EU solves anything.

People are walking around shops like zombies, I went to 3 supermarkets on the way back from picking up my work stuff (we are permanently closing our office and all working from home using a server data centre), to get about 6 items and ended up buying whatever was nearly run out instead Sainsburies having no fruit, veg, chicken etc - mostly empty freezers. got the last 10 motives menthol, the checkout lady said get there at 7am or 7pm and the shelves are full they get 6 deliveries a day.

10 days for a prescription from your local GP surgery now (they said the same day I was allowed to put our prescriptions in), so no warfarin, blood pressure pills, painkillers etc

supermarkets are surreal

WHO this morning said, why do people assume you will become immune to COVID? - SARS and MERS show no immunity!


----------



## bobclive22

> Bob, we are expecting most people will get the virus not just those presented when you last read the Daily Mail.


Not the Mail John,this - https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboar ... 7b48e9ecf6

Number with virus now in UK *1960*, no more people have died up to present, still *55*.

If you are correct, we wait to see how many unfortunate people succumb to this Wuhan virus.


----------



## barry_m2

bobclive22 said:


> Bob, we are expecting most people will get the virus not just those presented when you last read the Daily Mail.
> 
> 
> 
> Not the Mail John,this - https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboar ... 7b48e9ecf6
> 
> Number with virus now in UK *1960*, no more people have died up to present, still *55*.
> 
> If you are correct, we wait to see how many unfortunate people succumb to this Wuhan virus.
Click to expand...

Yep, approximately 0.003% of the U.K. have been diagnosed with it. The media love scaremongering.


----------



## John-H

StuartDB said:


> Coronavirus is nothing to do with Brexit, it would have been better if we had left on March 29 2019 then we would know who's here - doing what.


And how would that help unless we test everybody. UK citizens travel too.



StuartDB said:


> Considering a German company (part of the EU) on the brink of getting the vaccine sorted (another 1,000,000,000 infections first) has just been bought by the US, why on earth do people think being part of the EU solves anything.


The USA has major buying clout. So does the EU - it's actually bigger. The UK on it's own has very little in comparison to either. Better in than out in that respect.



StuartDB said:


> People are walking around shops like zombies, I went to 3 supermarkets on the way back from picking up my work stuff (we are permanently closing our office and all working from home using a server data centre), to get about 6 items and ended up buying whatever was nearly run out instead Sainsburies having no fruit, veg, chicken etc - mostly empty freezers. got the last 10 motives menthol, the checkout lady said get there at 7am or 7pm and the shelves are full they get 6 deliveries a day.
> 
> 10 days for a prescription from your local GP surgery now (they said the same day I was allowed to put our prescriptions in), so no warfarin, blood pressure pills, painkillers etc
> 
> supermarkets are surreal


You'll have a repeat of this if we goto WTO at the end of the year and hold up each lorry at Dover to cause a 27 mile lorry park. Currently we get half our food from the EU.

There are reports that the UK is asking for an extension to negotiations due to the virus and not wanting to have a repeat crisis. Civil servants working on Brexit have been reassigned to deal with the epidemic.



StuartDB said:


> WHO this morning said, why do people assume you will become immune to COVID? - SARS and MERS show no immunity!


I heard them say that when the government were talking of going for herd immunity. Even if it worked it was mad and would have been a disaster created.

Some good news today that one town in Italy has had great success testing and re-testing everybody and quarantining all that have come into contact with the infected.

We need to rapidly step up testing and inject cash in the form of quantative easing to businesses and individuals laid off - loans are not useful as businesses don't want to stack up debt and will shed staff instead. We could end up with millions unemployed and in the long run starving and homeless leading to civil unrest unless effective action is taken.


----------



## barry_m2

I did wonder how long it would take Mr Doom and Gloom to bring Brixit in to it. :lol:


----------



## John-H

I didn't bring it up but the connections are obvious.

We certainly need to coordinate our actions and work together in this situation. The last thing we need is action that divides and harms us further.


----------



## barry_m2

John-H said:


> We certainly need to coordinate our actions and work together in this situation. The last thing we need is action that divides and harms us further.


They are already. 

And you did bring it up first, 8 posts in on the first page. I didn't see anyone mention it before then?



John-H said:


> We've got another crisis to look forward to when the Brexit transition period ends on December 31st - if Johnson goes for no deal WTO we'll have more than toilet roll shortages to worry about. Will he try to blame the Brexit chaos on COVID-19? It would seem madness to walk into yet another crisis.


----------



## John-H

Thanks for highlighting this again now. It is important I agree and the government seem to be moving in that direction.


----------



## barry_m2

John-H said:


> Thanks for highlighting this again now. It is important I agree.


You agree with yourself? Good for you sport :lol:

And thank you for admitting your mistake/lie


----------



## John-H

Your quote was from ages ago. I was replying and refering the post prior to my last one as I'm sure you know. I know that because your post was just after it referring to how long etc

Obviously the government don't think dropping out without a deal is a good idea in the circumstances - that's the highlight of the point.


----------



## barry_m2

John-H said:


> Your quote was from ages ago. I was replying and refering the post prior to my last one as I'm sure you know. I know that because your post was just after it referring to how long etc
> 
> Obviously the government don't think dropping out without a deal is a good idea in the circumstances - that's the highlight of the point.


I pointed out you did in fact bring up Brexit, and yes, sooner in the thread than I actually realised.


----------



## ashfinlayson

barry_m2 said:


> I did wonder how long it would take Mr Doom and Gloom to bring Brixit in to it. :lol:


No trade barriers are going to get in the way of pharma accessing their enormous global market when they do come up with a vaccine. The only relevance brexit has in this pandemic is to put into perspective just how trivial a trade deal is in comparison with a global health crisis and just how irrelevant political union is when all affected are putting up their borders as soon as the going gets tough.

Yes only 0.003% of the population may have been diagnosed with the virus so far, but that is a tiny proportion of the amount of cases that will go undiagnosed. Myself, members of my extended family and several friends are now at home with viral symptoms, whether or not that is _the_ virus, we will probably never know but I expect a few hundred thousand are already carrying it.

All this talk of _killing off the oldies, more houses_ etc, is Nazi talk


----------



## barry_m2

ashfinlayson said:


> barry_m2 said:
> 
> 
> 
> I did wonder how long it would take Mr Doom and Gloom to bring Brixit in to it. :lol:
> 
> 
> 
> No trade barriers are going to get in the way of pharma accessing their enormous global market when they do come up with a vaccine. The only relevance brexit has in this pandemic is to put into perspective just how trivial a trade deal is in comparison with a global health crisis and just how irrelevant political union is when all affected are putting up their borders as soon as the going gets tough.
> 
> Yes only 0.003% of the population may have been diagnosed with the virus so far, but that is a tiny proportion of the amount of cases that will go undiagnosed. Myself, members of my extended family and several friends are now at home with viral symptoms, whether or not that is _the_ virus, we will probably never know but I expect a few hundred thousand are already carrying it.
> 
> All this talk of _killing off the oldies, more houses_ etc, is Nazi talk
Click to expand...

Yup, I know what's true and what isn't, I know what to believe and what is nonsense, it helps having a partner on the 'inside'.

But, this thread isn't about Brexit or what might happen at the end of the year or if we were still in the Eu.


----------



## bobclive22

Lets stop this Covid-19 political correct crap, it *originated in China* from one of two places, the Wuhan wet market or the Wuhan National Biosafety level 4 Laboratory.
Perhaps Borris might have second thoughts on allowing Huawei to be included in UK`s 5G.



> Editors' note, March 2020: We are aware that this story is being used as the basis for unverified theories that the novel coronavirus causing COVID-19 was engineered. There is no evidence that this is true; scientists believe that an animal is the most likely source of the coronavirus.


No one said it was engineered,

https://www.nature.com/news/engineered- ... ch-1.18787

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/chines ... ood-market

https://www.nature.com/articles/nm.3985 
*Zhengli-Li Shi*
Key Laboratory of Special Pathogens and Biosafety, Wuhan Institute of Virology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, China
*Zhengli-Li Shi*
Key Laboratory of Special Pathogens and Biosafety, Wuhan Institute of Virology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, China

Part funding for this study was from *EcoHealth Alliance *

Our mission



> EcoHealth Alliance leads cutting-edge scientific research into the critical connections between human and wildlife health and delicate ecosystems. With this science, we develop solutions that *prevent pandemics and promote conservation*.


OOP`s.


----------



## SamDorey

Did the UK receive a text?

Just got this which was sent to all Guernsey residents.


----------



## bobclive22

It would appear that the vast majority of the 71 unfortunate UK citizens that have died from this COVID-19 virus would probably have died from the yearly Flu. There is something odd going on here, is there no testing for the Flu virus this year.

Now 18/3/2020 at 6.30 pm there are *2642 *recorded cases, deaths remain the same at 71.

S


> o overall, which is worse: coronavirus or flu?
> That's not really an easy question to answer, says Dr. Brown. "It depends on what you mean by worse," he says. "More easily spread? Then it appears to be coronavirus. Causes more cases of serious illness. Then it's flu."


https://www.health.com/condition/infect ... e-than-flu

*Death toll from virus hits 155, with 35 people dying last week alone* Jan 25th.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/201 ... ast-winter


----------



## John-H

ashfinlayson said:


> barry_m2 said:
> 
> 
> 
> I did wonder how long it would take Mr Doom and Gloom to bring Brixit in to it. :lol:
> 
> 
> 
> No trade barriers are going to get in the way of pharma accessing their enormous global market when they do come up with a vaccine. The only relevance brexit has in this pandemic is to put into perspective just how trivial a trade deal is in comparison with a global health crisis and just how irrelevant political union is when all affected are putting up their borders as soon as the going gets tough.
> 
> Yes only 0.003% of the population may have been diagnosed with the virus so far, but that is a tiny proportion of the amount of cases that will go undiagnosed. Myself, members of my extended family and several friends are now at home with viral symptoms, whether or not that is _the_ virus, we will probably never know but I expect a few hundred thousand are already carrying it.
> 
> All this talk of _killing off the oldies, more houses_ etc, is Nazi talk
Click to expand...

Totally agree - with the one caveat that in the order of priority of market access the EU has greater bargaining power and is a more attractive market for regulatory approval priority than the UK is on its own - possibly one of the reasons the transition period is reportedly to be extended as we will have access to this availability and not be delayed. The political union regarding freedom of movement is obviously a difficulty if it coincides with unchecked spread of the virus. But that's no different to limiting social contact on a more local level. Isolation in these circumstances is for sound medical reasons.

How many people here are now working from home?

I spoke to a dentist today. He told me about the issues in controlling the COVID-19 infection in a dentist surgery is on a par with tuberculosis. Although a dentist and staff can wear a FFP3 resperator mask and gloves changing on every patient, the dental surgery process causes aeration of microscopic water droplets and particles which need time to fall to the floor and then there should be a general surface clean-up and wipe down, or there needs to be powerful filtered air exchange like there is in an operating theatre which most dental surgeries don't have. Although if done properly the staff can be protected, ensuring there is no cross infection of patients in most practices will require more time in between patients. This may explain messages cancelling appointments of minor or more time consuming treatments as they are less sustainable for a practice in these circumstances. He told me he wouldn't risk going to a dentist now unless it was an emergency.


----------



## Nidana

I'm not working from home but I am waiting to hear if from Friday I will be out of employment. 
Will be having like a lot of other people be looking to trim the fat and get rid of anything on a subscription based service. I'm not worried so much for myself it's more my wife who's health is not the best, mother in law presently now with dementia and second stroke in hospital, father in law who is also not of the best health and then my grandmother who is hospitalised and not looking good full stop some 300 miles away. 
I'm not after any pity as many other people will be in the same or worst situation, it's the selfish panic buying that's annoying me to turn a quick profit and the likes of Branson wanting a hand out.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## bobclive22

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... -FINAL.pdf

Is this China virus more deadly than Flu.

*Flu v`s Wuhan China virus.*

2014-15 deaths associated with Flu 65+ age group *25,143*, 
2015-16 *9,459* 
2016-17 *15,167*
2017-18 *22,237*
2018-19 *914*

China Wuhan Virus 2019-20 up to 19/3/2020 *104 *mainly elderly with underlying medical problems.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... 3X19300588



> *Conclusions*
> 
> Over 68,000 deaths were attributable to influenza epidemics in the study period. The observed excess of deaths is not completely unexpected, given the high number of fragile very old subjects living in Italy. In conclusion, the unpredictability of the influenza virus continues to present a major challenge to health professionals and policy makers.


https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... 1219303285


----------



## bobclive22

Could there possibly be a cheap generic treatment for this virus that big pharma don`t want us to know about.



> *Conclusion*
> Chloroquine, a relatively safe, effective and cheap drug used for treating many human diseases including malaria, amoebiosis and human immunodeficiency virus is effective in inhibiting the infection and spread of SARS CoV in cell culture. The fact that the drug has significant inhibitory antiviral effect when the susceptible cells were treated either prior to or after infection suggests a possible prophylactic and therapeutic use.


https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1232869/
https://virologyj.biomedcentral.com/art ... -422X-2-69
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... 7920300881

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020 ... ronavirus/

We then have this,

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... 4220301145


----------



## roddy

bobclive22 said:


> Could there possibly be a cheap generic treatment for this virus that big pharma don`t want us to know about.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> *Conclusion*
> Chloroquine, a relatively safe, effective and cheap drug used for treating many human diseases including malaria, amoebiosis and human immunodeficiency virus is effective in inhibiting the infection and spread of SARS CoV in cell culture. The fact that the drug has significant inhibitory antiviral effect when the susceptible cells were treated either prior to or after infection suggests a possible prophylactic and therapeutic use.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1232869/
> https://virologyj.biomedcentral.com/art ... -422X-2-69
> https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... 7920300881
> 
> https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020 ... ronavirus/
> 
> We then have this,
> 
> https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... 4220301145
Click to expand...

good god, thats a paste and a half ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, so where can one get that stuff ??????????


----------



## John-H




----------



## Essex2Visuvesi

Posted by a close friend of mine


----------



## SwissJetPilot

Post deleted by user.


----------



## ZephyR2

Well I'm taking Bob's advice about the chloroquine and having a large gin and tonic each night. 
For purely medicinal reasons of course.


----------



## Iceblue

Nidana said:


> I'm not working from home but I am waiting to hear if from Friday I will be out of employment.
> Will be having like a lot of other people be looking to trim the fat and get rid of anything on a subscription based service. I'm not worried so much for myself it's more my wife who's health is not the best, mother in law presently now with dementia and second stroke in hospital, father in law who is also not of the best health and then my grandmother who is hospitalised and not looking good full stop some 300 miles away.
> I'm not after any pity as many other people will be in the same or worst situation, it's the selfish panic buying that's annoying me to turn a quick profit and the likes of Branson wanting a hand out.
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Sorry to hear Nidana and I am sure you will not be alone should this pandemic continue. Our main airline just got rid of 2/3rds of its workforce - over 20,000 people and there are many who own small businesses with no business to pay the rent or staff. Unfortunately this is just the beginning so stay strong.


----------



## roddy

SwissJetPilot said:


> While the health issue and it's effects are being highlighted by the media, they are completely ignoring (or intentionally not discussing) what this all means for China.
> 
> China is already back to work and has figured out how to use this pandemic to their advantage over the West.
> 
> Very interesting read here...
> 
> https://www.horizonadvisory.org/news/co ... d-planning
> 
> Be sure to download the PDF and read it.


quite interesting and reassuring ,, " help , make friends with , influence and hopefully benefit from interaction " ( paraphrased ) ,,, quite different the the accepted western mantra of " bomb the b******s , loot , rape and pillage " ,,, maybe there is hope for the human race after all,.


----------



## Nidana

Iceblue said:


> Nidana said:
> 
> 
> 
> I'm not working from home but I am waiting to hear if from Friday I will be out of employment.
> Will be having like a lot of other people be looking to trim the fat and get rid of anything on a subscription based service. I'm not worried so much for myself it's more my wife who's health is not the best, mother in law presently now with dementia and second stroke in hospital, father in law who is also not of the best health and then my grandmother who is hospitalised and not looking good full stop some 300 miles away.
> I'm not after any pity as many other people will be in the same or worst situation, it's the selfish panic buying that's annoying me to turn a quick profit and the likes of Branson wanting a hand out.
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
> 
> 
> 
> Sorry to hear Nidana and I am sure you will not be alone should this pandemic continue. Our main airline just got rid of 2/3rds of its workforce - over 20,000 people and there are many who own small businesses with no business to pay the rent or staff. Unfortunately this is just the beginning so stay strong.
Click to expand...

Thankyou Iceblue

I'm actually a lucky one at the moment in relation to employment the schools I look after are staying open to help communities and critical services child care. I deal with the electrics and gas side of things. I have decided to base myself from one site only and will react to all sites as required to restrict my movements as much as possible. 
Although now it seems even if your able to keep normality going be it for how long is unknown when you go to the shops they are empty. 
I find myself now looking for news on employers that are going to take care of staff so if I survive through this know who to part with my money to going forward. 
My task today is weekly shopping for myself and wife, father in law that will be on lockdown and my elderly neighbour as required. Then it will be Netflix til Monday.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## John-H

Latest cumulative data:

In most western countries case numbers have been increasing by about 33 per cent a day, a sign that other countries may soon be facing the same challenge as Italy.


















Source: https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f ... 5839e06441


----------



## ZephyR2

So can someone explain something to me. In China there have been 81000 cases of COVID and it seems to have been very well contained by using some extreme measures. But when they relax these control measures how do they stop it spreading to the rest of 1.4 billion population.
Are China's current very low new case numbers only arising as a result of continued control measures?
They are obviously far from the levels required for herd immunity and it won't be possible to stop every infected person entering the country. So what happens when they drop their guard?


----------



## Iceblue

Nidana said:


> Iceblue said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Nidana said:
> 
> 
> 
> I'm not working from home but I am waiting to hear if from Friday I will be out of employment.
> Will be having like a lot of other people be looking to trim the fat and get rid of anything on a subscription based service. I'm not worried so much for myself it's more my wife who's health is not the best, mother in law presently now with dementia and second stroke in hospital, father in law who is also not of the best health and then my grandmother who is hospitalised and not looking good full stop some 300 miles away.
> I'm not after any pity as many other people will be in the same or worst situation, it's the selfish panic buying that's annoying me to turn a quick profit and the likes of Branson wanting a hand out.
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
> 
> 
> 
> Sorry to hear Nidana and I am sure you will not be alone should this pandemic continue. Our main airline just got rid of 2/3rds of its workforce - over 20,000 people and there are many who own small businesses with no business to pay the rent or staff. Unfortunately this is just the beginning so stay strong.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> Thankyou Iceblue
> 
> I'm actually a lucky one at the moment in relation to employment the schools I look after are staying open to help communities and critical services child care. I deal with the electrics and gas side of things. I have decided to base myself from one site only and will react to all sites as required to restrict my movements as much as possible.
> Although now it seems even if your able to keep normality going be it for how long is unknown when you go to the shops they are empty.
> I find myself now looking for news on employers that are going to take care of staff so if I survive through this know who to part with my money to going forward.
> My task today is weekly shopping for myself and wife, father in law that will be on lockdown and my elderly neighbour as required. Then it will be Netflix til Monday.
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Thats great Nidana at least you have work as I do until Monday and we will see what happens from there. Our schools in Australia remain open as well which is controversial but seems OK at this point. I went past a few beaches today in the northern part of Sydney where I live and you would not know there is a pandemic about to envelope us. People hang gliding lots of traffic and people at the beach, surfing and out on their boats. Very surreal. They had to close Bondi Beach yesterday because it was packed as it would be on any summer day and just did not make sense given the governments serious pronouncements about social distancing and staying away from crowds. Anyway keep us posted on how you are going. If the modelling is right (are you listening John) the worst of this should be over in 6-12 months. I have just heard Boris is now giving out a social wage to those made unemployed in the UK. Now that sounds nice and maybe that will save us both if our countries adopt such policies.


----------



## bobclive22

> In most western countries case numbers have been increasing by about 33 per cent a day, a sign that other countries may soon be facing the same challenge as Italy.


John, Italy is an outlier, so no, other countries may not soon be facing the same challenge as Italy.

Conclusions
Over 68,000 deaths were attributable to influenza epidemics in the study period. *The observed excess of deaths is not completely unexpected,* given the high number of fragile very old subjects living in Italy.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... 1219303285


----------



## John-H

Bob that's misplaced information. Italy has 23% over 65, Germany 21.5%, UK 18.5%, Japan 27%, China 10.3%. Yes China is younger but Italy is similar to other European countries and Japan is even older. So it's not just explained by age and we have a lot of old and vulnerable in the UK too and unlike Italy at the start an NHS already at full capacity.

China has 23 times the population of Italy and yet Italy, despite starting later, has overtaken China's death toll. Other Western countries are on the same trendline. Look at the graph - what's going to slow down the rise?

China's success is down to containment measures and speed of implementation. If China dropped its guard then yes it could spread and repeat elsewhere but if they are on top of things with the testing - test everybody in the sealed zone, quarantine and treat everybody to recovery re-test and wait long enough after they reach zero new cases then theoretically the virus in the environment (it only lasts a couple of days on hard surfaces - less on Soft and dry) should become inactive and with zero carriers they should be free to open up restrictions.

They did a similar exercise in one sealed town in Italy with great success but they can't open up when the virus is still actively spreading around them.

China reported no new home infections but there has been infection from visitors to the country. The key thing is testing so you know where you are.

In the UK as of 9am on 20 March 2020, 66,976 people have been tested, of which 62,993 were confirmed negative and 3,983 were confirmed positive.

The concerning issue is the 33% daily increase in infections which if you do the maths reaches the entire UK population after 47 days from case 100 (34 days from now) - but of course the rate would slow down long before that because an infected person can't infect another infected person, so when the mass of infection is large it becomes self limiting in rate of new infection. The modelers were predicting a halt at 80% of population if it was simply allowed to rip through unrestricted.

Nonetheless, we need to slow down the rate a lot more to prevent overload of the hospitals like Italy - hence the new restrictions - and we need more to come. We also need to massively increase testing and there's a new faster test on the way (current one takes four days) and one that detects antibodies so you know who has been infected but recovered and is immune (potentially).

As regards the measures the government is taking to protect jobs and the economy and at the same time help people stop mixing so they can stay at home and limit the spread they have taken a bold step. This is what Gordon Brown was calling for the other day. He was instrumental is limiting the financial crash in 2008 by visiting world leaders and coordinating a response. He formed the G20.

Gordon Brown's interview on Today earlier this week is well worth listening to (from 2:10:09)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000gbhc

The government's response needs improvement however. The self employed have been missed out. Their choice is to become unemployed on Universal Credit with a big drop in income or carry on working. One Taxi driver said today, _"I can't afford to stop working"._


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## bobclive22

> Bob that's misinformation.


It`s a scientific study relating to Flu in Italy John.

Almost all the Corona deaths that have occurred in the UK appear to be in the elderly age group, 75 and over and mainly those with underlying medical conditions, if these same people had contracted Flu the same outcome would probably have occurred.

The number of elderly residents in the UK between from 75 to 90+ is 4.93% as of 2020, that`s 3,139,140. If the virus kills 4% of that age group that means *125,500 *will die. Up to the present time we have lost *178*.

*The lockdown* bearing in mind that all passengers mingled before first passenger tested positive and all were breathing the same conditioned air.

*Diamond Princess,*

Passengers around 3,700, 3618 were tested on the 5th March, 696 tested positive, 8 deaths have occurred the last dated 21st March.

*19.2%* tested positive, 1.1% died.

This lockdown was probably the worst case scenario.

https://www.wired.co.uk/article/diamond ... ship-japan


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## John-H

I'm saying the information is misplaced in the ccorona virus case. It's very different than flu.


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## bobclive22

> I'm saying the information is misplaced in the ccorona virus case. It's very different than flu.


How different John.

We hear the words might and could, what we don`t hear or see are the actual admission numbers, are the UK hospitals being overwhelmed more than usual in winter, seems not.
Do we get comparison numbers for UK seasonal Flu deaths compared with Coronavirus no.
Have the Chinese Coronavirus numbers reached the level of yearly Flu deaths, appears not.

As posted earlier,

Flu v`s Corona virus.

2014-15 deaths associated with Flu 65+ age group *25,143*,
2015-16 *9,459*
2016-17 *15,167*
2017-18 *22,237*
2018-19 *914*

Wuhan Corona virus UK deaths *179*

It appears the Corona virus is mainly knocking off folks of my age group John, looking at the numbers i`m not overly concerned, why should you be?.


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## bobclive22

*China's relationship with WHO chief in wake of coronavirus outbreak under the microscope*

A Fox News piece, don`t let that put you off, actually it`s the only major truthful MSM organisation in the whole of the US, pity it is not in the UK. 
I have followed the Trump saga for 3 years, everything reported by Fox News regarding President Trump`s Russia links including his impeachment was *100% accurate.*

Read the piece and follow the links, another part of the UN gravy train.


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## John-H

Sounds like you are developing a conspiracy theory.

Funny how people need to do that.


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## roddy

perhaps more people need to do that before the truth is revealed


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## roddy

old ( elderly ) people , i bet it is poor elderly people , not rich elderly ,,


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## k3vink3vin

bob, while looking at the number of deaths caused by flu vs coronavirus, we should also look at how many people was infected.

If the same amount of people who caught flu catches the coronavirus, the coronavirus will kill a lot more than flu.

When looking at closed cases only, the number of people who died vs recovered is very scary.

In Italy it is at 44%.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... try/italy/

In the UK it is at 71%.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/


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## John-H

I tend to pick up what the truth is from the news in general and what I see going on. Are you saying you can reveal a different reality - a different truth? Perhaps you could explain?


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## SwissJetPilot

Post deleted by user.


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## John-H

There has been comparison of Covid-19 to Flu similarities with some people claiming that Covid-19 is therefore nothing to worry about in comparison or because they don't appreciate the difference start promoting ill informed conspiracy theories to explain what they perceive to be an overreaction by the authorities for devious authoritarian reasons.

Can we scotch this misinformation now before it gains any credence - THE MORTALITY RATE OF COVID-19 IS *30 TO 40 TIMES* THAT OF FLU AND THERE IS NO VACCINE FOR PREVENTION OR ANTIVIRAL DRUG DRUG THERAPY AVAILABLE FOR TREATMENT.

"Mortality for COVID-19 appears higher than for influenza, especially seasonal influenza. While the true mortality of COVID-19 will take some time to fully understand, the data we have so far indicate that the crude mortality ratio (the number of reported deaths divided by the reported cases) is between 3-4%, the infection mortality rate (the number of reported deaths divided by the number of infections) will be lower. For seasonal influenza, mortality is usually well below 0.1%. However, mortality is to a large extent determined by access to and quality of health care."

"While the range of symptoms for the two viruses is similar, the fraction with severe disease appears to be different. For COVID-19, data to date suggest that 80% of infections are mild or asymptomatic, 15% are severe infection, requiring oxygen and 5% are critical infections, requiring ventilation. These fractions of severe and critical infection would be higher than what is observed for influenza infection."

Sources:

WHO SUBJECT IN FOCUS: Q&A: Similarities and differences - COVID-19 and influenza
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source ... 96b04adf_2

Medical News Today:
https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articl ... flu#causes


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## John-H

When I first started this thread on March 12th the UK had 459 cases (8 deaths) and Italy 12,462 cases (827 deaths). Now nine days later on 21 March Italy has 53,578 cases and 4,825 deaths, the UK 5,018 cases (233 deaths).


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## bobclive22

One for you John,


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## John-H

One for you Bob


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## JorgeTTCQ

JorgeTTCQ said:


> Hello everyone,
> I am in Spain, and thanks to our stupid government that allow a 150.000 people demonstration at Madrid last 8 March, when the health authority knows that was a big risk, now we have *11.178 people infected and 491 people death*.
> Commerce and industry stopped, schools and university, people is at home for two weeks (but I am sure it will be for more time).
> A complete disaster.
> 
> Stay safe!


*UPDATE from 17/03/2020*

*Today, 23/03/2020, there are 33.000 people infected (+ 21.822 in 6 days) and 2.182 people death (+ 1.691 in 6 days).
* And we are waiting the worst news and increase next days.

Stay safe at home please!


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## John-H

JorgeTTCQ said:


> JorgeTTCQ said:
> 
> 
> 
> Hello everyone,
> I am in Spain, and thanks to our stupid government that allow a 150.000 people demonstration at Madrid last 8 March, when the health authority knows that was a big risk, now we have *11.178 people infected and 491 people death*.
> Commerce and industry stopped, schools and university, people is at home for two weeks (but I am sure it will be for more time).
> A complete disaster.
> 
> Stay safe!
> 
> 
> 
> *UPDATE from 17/03/2020*
> 
> *Today, 23/03/2020, there are 33.000 people infected (+ 21.822 in 6 days) and 2.182 people death (+ 1.691 in 6 days).
> * And we are waiting the worst news and increase next days.
> 
> Stay safe at home please!
Click to expand...

Hi Jorge,
Sorry I didn't spot your post previously. Worrying life-changing times. I expect us to go into lock down imminently if the government have any sense - as you've already done. I can't believe some people are taking it as an excuse for a holiday and a walk in the park. Stay at home - stay safe. All the best, 
John


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## JorgeTTCQ

> Hi Jorge,
> Sorry I didn't spot your post previously. Worrying life-changing times. I expect us to go into lock down imminently if the government have any sense - as you've already done. I can't believe some people are taking it as an excuse for a holiday and a walk in the park. Stay at home - stay safe. All the best,
> John


Hi John, thanks for your comments. I am absolutely convinced that our government has not acted as quickly as it should and now we have a collapsed country in both health and economy.
We are on alertness until April 11, this means that we cannot move freely, only to go to work, make food purchases or go to the pharmacy.
Probably next week all business, except health and food will be closed.

Kind regards,

Jorge


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## John-H

JorgeTTCQ said:


> Hi Jorge,
> Sorry I didn't spot your post previously. Worrying life-changing times. I expect us to go into lock down imminently if the government have any sense - as you've already done. I can't believe some people are taking it as an excuse for a holiday and a walk in the park. Stay at home - stay safe. All the best,
> John
> 
> 
> 
> Hi John, thanks for your comments. I am absolutely convinced that our government has not acted as quickly as it should and now we have a collapsed country in both health and economy.
> We are on alertness until April 11, this means that we cannot move freely, only to go to work, make food purchases or go to the pharmacy.
> Probably next week all business, except health and food will be closed.
> 
> Kind regards,
> 
> Jorge
Click to expand...

Hi Jorge,

As expected our government has just announced a lock down but it still doesn't go far enough and as you say about yours it is way too slow in response.

Let's hope we cope.

Cheers,
John


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## roddy

JorgeTTCQ said:


> Hi Jorge,
> Sorry I didn't spot your post previously. Worrying life-changing times. I expect us to go into lock down imminently if the government have any sense - as you've already done. I can't believe some people are taking it as an excuse for a holiday and a walk in the park. Stay at home - stay safe. All the best,
> John
> 
> 
> 
> Hi John, thanks for your comments. I am absolutely convinced that our government has not acted as quickly as it should and now we have a collapsed country in both health and economy.
> We are on alertness until April 11, this means that we cannot move freely, only to go to work, make food purchases or go to the pharmacy.
> Probably next week all business, except health and food will be closed.
> 
> Kind rega
> Jorge
Click to expand...

Jorge ,, all best my amigo , i have a friend who runs a mountain bike company up in the Basque lands , he told me last week that they were well tho a bit difficult ,,, we are told that we in uk are not far behind you in the development / progress of the vir ,,,,,, do you think it is possible to protect with careful isolation , gloves and spray spray spray ,,,, or what else can you recommend ( asking you as you are obviously surviving !! ) really , all best amigo.


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## roddy

yes sure we have gone into lock down tonite,, maybe in response to the moronic idiots , thousands of whom flocked to snowdonia etc at the week end , for what ? to spread their freedom and show their ignorance and selfishness ,, OMG,, i have forgoten my point !! anyway ,, anyway . wtf is going on,,,, did the americans plant it , was it a natural occurance , was it ying yang for chineese dreadful treatment of poor defenseless animals , are the figures / statistics being twisted for some allterior motive ( all perfectly plauseable when one looks at the totally inhumane and grotesque behavour of the americans and their puppet regeims , eg, UK , France Saudi Arabia , UN , NATO etc ) ,but tonite , does not really matter , if we all do well and get throo this then there is plenty of time to discuss that , for now , let us just hunker down , take the incinvenience and STAY HOME ,,,, dont wander from your ses pit in London or middle england up into Wales, dont be a selfish bastard and head up into scotland to your second home or in your camper vans without even getting tested ,, have consideration for indiginous populations , if a stranger comes into your area then send them packing , or burn them down ( i know there are people in certain parts of UK will agree with me tonite ) ,, isolate , spray , spray and spray,, every god damned thing around you , you are your own defence , dont rely on others ....


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## JorgeTTCQ

roddy said:


> JorgeTTCQ said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Hi Jorge,
> Sorry I didn't spot your post previously. Worrying life-changing times. I expect us to go into lock down imminently if the government have any sense - as you've already done. I can't believe some people are taking it as an excuse for a holiday and a walk in the park. Stay at home - stay safe. All the best,
> John
> 
> 
> 
> Hi John, thanks for your comments. I am absolutely convinced that our government has not acted as quickly as it should and now we have a collapsed country in both health and economy.
> We are on alertness until April 11, this means that we cannot move freely, only to go to work, make food purchases or go to the pharmacy.
> Probably next week all business, except health and food will be closed.
> 
> Kind rega
> Jorge
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> Jorge ,, all best my amigo , i have a friend who runs a mountain bike company up in the Basque lands , he told me last week that they were well tho a bit difficult ,,, we are told that we in uk are not far behind you in the development / progress of the vir ,,,,,, do you think it is possible to protect with careful isolation , gloves and spray spray spray ,,,, or what else can you recommend ( asking you as you are obviously surviving !! ) really , all best amigo.
Click to expand...

Hi roddy,
First I hope all of you are fine 
What I only can recommend is what doctors are telling us, *stay at home*, and in case you must go out to purchase food or something else important, use nitrile gloves and a protective face mask FFP3.
Wash very carefully your hands with hydroalcoholic gel and if you have symptoms call emergency number (fever, shortness of breath...).
The only way to stop the pandemic is do your best to avoid contagion, staying at home.

Please, be very carefully, this virus not only affect older people, we have here 36 years old athlete people very serious in the hospital.

All the best.

Kind regards


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## SwissJetPilot

Post deleted by user.


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## John-H

I fear for our NHS front line. Despite what the government says they still don't have the right PPE with reports of staff going to Sscrewfix and B&Q to get FFP3 respirators used in construction and making bigger aprons out of bin liners.

Reports also of patients under 40 now on ventilators.


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## SwissJetPilot

Post deleted by user.


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## SamDorey

Guernsey rumors are we are going into lockdown as of midnight tonight. Been told it'll be announced at 7pm.


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## SamDorey

SamDorey said:


> Guernsey rumors are we are going into lockdown as of midnight tonight. Been told it'll be announced at 7pm.


Update - We're in lockdown, think it was mentioned 28 weeks. As I live with 2 workers at the hospital (1 nurse, 1 porter who is on stand by as an extra nurse if needed) and 1 airport security , I've isolated myself for over a week already.


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## bobclive22

*Diamond Princess Mysteries*
Willis Eschenbach / 1 week ago March 16, 2020
Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach



> As you might imagine, before they *knew it was a problem*, the *epidemic raged on the ship*, with infected crew members cooking and cleaning for the guests, people all eating together, close living quarters, lots of social interaction, and a generally older population. Seems like a *perfect situation* for an overwhelming majority of the passengers to become infected.
> 
> And despite that, some 83% (82.7% - 83.9%) of the passengers never got the disease at all &#8230; why?


https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/16/ ... mysteries/

Read the piece and especially the comments, this was a closed system, it is like a scientific study where 3,700 volunteers are locked in an enclosed virulent environment and the scientists wait to see what happens, why didn`t more passengers and crew get infected, (9) have now died.

On average the flu season lasts about 13 weeks it will usually end by April, but in some years it can linger into May.
I believe this virus will disappear at the end of May as is normal for the Flu virus, judging by the evidence obtained from the Diamond Princess it won`t be because of the lockdownd.

Watch this video, it shows a total loss of infection control on the Diamond Princess, it also indicates that this virus is nowhere near as dangerous as it is being made out to be.

Diamond Princess Whistleblower: *"Nobody was professional infection control specialist"*


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## roddy

right from the start i thot that was very strange ( at least ) ,, probably the worst possible thing to do , herd everyone together , it is bound to spread , was it deliberate / calculated or just gross stupidity by some of the ( we are told ) leading scientists and doctors of our time ??? all a bit fishy . if i was on that ship i think i would have jumped overboard and swam for it . however i dont think this is the time to worry about who how or why this has happened , stay home , isolate and spray spray spray , we are our own and only deffence ,, hopefully later there will be time to discuss who or what was behind it ,, stay safe ye all .


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## bobclive22

> stay home , isolate and spray spray spray , we are our own and only deffence ,


The whole point regarding the Diamond princess debacle is that there was *little or no isolation*, even so only 16% of the 3,700 passengers and crew contracted the Virus, from this it would appear this virus is not as dangerous as we are led to believe.


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## SamDorey

IMO -You can't compare COVID-19 to anything as it's a new and different type of virus and no study can show it'll stop in April as there's no scientific history to prove that theory.


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## John-H

bobclive22 said:


> stay home , isolate and spray spray spray , we are our own and only deffence ,
> 
> 
> 
> The whole point regarding the Diamond princess debacle is that there was *little or no isolation*, even so only 16% of the 3,700 passengers and crew contracted the Virus, from this it would appear this virus is not as dangerous as we are led to believe.
Click to expand...

Bob is your mission to make people drop their guard? Perhaps you should take more care of yourself? The push you are making would suggest you aren't taking many precautions.


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## roddy

16% of the population is a fairly large amount of people , many of them lovely elderly , it is quite shocking seeing some of them wandering around the supermarket looking bewildered at the empty isles where they once bought their staples , and empty trollys , it is them for whom we should be sparing no effort . ( whither you believe in the story or not,, it is very real for them )


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## John-H

It's worth reading this report if you can get round the paywall: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/coro ... -spz6sc9vb

It explains it was the special advisor Dominic Cummings behind the herd immunity strategy at the end of February with some reservations by the PM Johnson and health Minister Matt Hancock but between them all they adopted this strategy. The Times article quotes Cummings as saying, _"herd immunity, protect the economy, and if that means some pensioners die, too bad."_

It wasn't until 12th March when Cummings read the report by Imperial College which said that if no action was taken we could have a quarter of a million people dead he changed his mind and as one senior Conservative put it: _"He's gone from 'herd immunity and let the old people die' to 'let's shut down the country and the economy'."_

It's also reported here: https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.thegua ... people-die

No 10 are denying the quotes but I certainly remember the "herd immunity" policy being widely explained as policy at the time and various protests against it and I posted about it on here so it was definitely a thing allowed to establish itself at the time. It was nuts.

Ok it's now been corrected but we seem to have lost time in the process and are now trying to catch up. We still have a desperate shortage of PPE with NHS staff explaining this morning again it's not to WHO standards and making their own out of plastic bags and visits to Screwfix. One PPE supplier this morning said they asked the government in January if they wanted more stock but were turned down claiming it was all in hand so the production was exported.

We still have confusion over who should be going to work with a "lockdown" full of holes with scenes of packed public transport. I think we need more action and I question the government faith and reliance upon unelected SpAds rather than proper experts in their field. Johnson seems to have gone from a blustering hand shaker, none too bothered about contagion and still reaching for laugh lines, to a somewhat haggard and haunted looking front man visibly aged.

What is striking is that all the targets of the culture war unleashed by his government, perhaps at the urging of Dominic Cummings, such as the BBC, the civil service and the public services, have proved essential to the Government as they seek to tackle this unprecedented crisis.


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## SwissJetPilot

Post deleted by user.


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## bobclive22

> It's worth reading this report if you can get round the paywall: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/coro ... -spz6sc9vb


Try these John, read the science not MSM spin.

On behalf of the Oxford COVID-19 Evidence Service Team
Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences
University of Oxford 20/03/2020



> The empirical evidence for the effectiveness of CQ/HCQ for the treatment of COVID-19 in humans is currently very limited. First clinical results were reported in a news briefing by the Chinese government in February 2020, revealing that the treatment of over 100 patients with chloroquine phosphate in China had resulted in significant improvements of pneumonia and lung imaging, with reductions in duration of illness (9). No adverse events were reported.


https://www.cebm.net/chloroquine-and-hy ... -covid-19/

BMJ Rapid Response:Re: Covid-19: control measures must be equitable and inclusive/ CASE FOR MASS CHLOROQUINE PROPHYLAXIS

https://www.bmj.com/content/368/bmj.m1141



> There has been some promising results using chloroquine, arbidol, remdesivir, and favipiravir and Dong et al4 provide insight into the possible mechanisms of action. It does look as though the anti-viral agents may be of value in COVID-19.


https://blogs.bmj.com/bjsm/2020/03/21/n ... ould-know/

Failure to respect the needs of vulnerable groups will seriously undermine response efforts

https://www.bmj.com/content/368/bmj.m1141



> Complete lockdowns for extended period of time of nearly all of the whole world really doesn't stand to reason. Shouldn't our limited and finite resources and energies be more fruitfully channelized for basically the elderly, and the population with lowered immunity and who are weak and frail? Why generate unnecessary panic and anxiety, and why create conditions which can craft long term problems related to economy and growth, as also problems related to law and order which could throw up challenges of peculiar nature.
> 
> Locking up all the youth and healthy individuals just for preventing this COVID-19 reaching the weak and frail elderly population who have other underlying health issues is not what the pioneers of modern medicine would have contemplated.


https://www.bmj.com/content/368/bmj.m11 ... -responses


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## bobclive22

Is this being trialled in the UK, problem is it`s cheap.

MARCH 19TH, 2020
French Peer-Reviewed Study: Our Treatment Cured 100% Of Coronavirus Patients.

https://www.pharmatrak.net/peer-reviewe ... -days/393/

New York begins testing chloroquine on coronavirus patients

https://www.pmnewsnigeria.com/2020/03/2 ... -patients/

https://www.connexionfrance.com/French- ... al-results

The French Study,

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... 7920300996






Here is the mother of all left wing media rags,

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/ ... ENEWS00001


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## John-H

So do you accept this is more serous than flu and therefore you are taking a correspondingly higher level of precaution - yes or no?


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## bobclive22

> So do you accept this is more serous than flu and therefore you are taking a correspondingly higher level of precaution - yes or no?


For me probably, but us uneducated northerners don`t appear to have have many confirmed carriers, it appears it likes your highly educated types south of the M25.


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## John-H

bobclive22 said:


> So do you accept this is more serous than flu and therefore you are taking a correspondingly higher level of precaution - yes or no?
> 
> 
> 
> For me probably, but us uneducated northerners don`t appear to have have many confirmed carriers, it appears it likes your highly educated types south of the M25.
Click to expand...

The most seem to be midlands and London reflecting populous and I've enough to worry about in the North West:









Sorry about the garish graphics - it was from the Sun website.


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## roddy

it is more common in the more densely populated ares , no surprise there . but why are they not trying the various remedies , some of which bob has identified , i was reading about another one recently with 100% success rate in china. it would seem sometimes that there is something ( someone !! ) behind all of this that is not being told . ( bob, i cant imagine why any left wing news outlet would want to suppress any right wing / establishment involvement , or are you seriously suggesting that it is the Russians again ?? ) , but for the situation which we are in ( maybe been put in ) vigilance and isolation are what will get us throo , plenty of time afterwards to discuss alternative causes


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## John-H

Don't believe in conspiracy theories - they are based on human imagination which comes from the desire to explain things people don't understand and ultimately they are always disproved and quietly forgotten. Believe in incompetence theories - they explain doing the wrong thing or delays in doing the right thing which all ultimately gets confirmed in the end. Happens every time.

Watch this and consider conspiracy or incompetence? :


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## bobclive22

> bob, i cant imagine why any left wing news outlet would want to suppress any right wing / establishment involvement


It`s for political gain, it`s mainly aimed at President Trump and his second term.

The guardian sets out to trash Trump then goes on to show the virtues of the cheap generic drug chloroquine together with an antibiotic, the other drug being tested costs $1000 a pop. I wonder which one will be recommended.



> Although Trump's claim about the drug was false it might play a role in tackling the pandemic


https://www.theguardian.com/science/202 ... s-patients

Appears to be safe,

https://www.drugs.com/comments/hydroxyc ... ritis.html



> Chloroquine May Fight Covid-19-and Silicon Valley's Into It


https://www.wired.com/story/an-old-mala ... s-into-it/



> Chloroquine: is a 70-year-old treatment for malaria the key to beating coronavirus?


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-heal ... ronavirus/


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## SwissJetPilot

Post deleted by user.


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## leopard

Chopped eggs in a cup and the ubiquitous WD40 cure all hasn't been tried as far as I know...Yet


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## SwissJetPilot

Post deleted by user.


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## John-H

I'm on the IPA :wink:


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## bobclive22

This is a clear explanation regarding the French study, it also gives links to other studies.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41421-020-0156-0.pdf

https://www.mediterranee-infection.com/ ... I_IJAA.pdf

https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/results? ... ity=&dist=


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## bobclive22

> Here is a prime example of left wing FAKE news.





> Hydroxychloroquine, a medicine for malaria that President Donald Trump has touted as a treatment for coronavirus, was no more effective than conventional care, a small study found.
> 
> The report published by the Journal of Zhejiang University in China showed that patients who got the medicine didn't fight off the new coronavirus more often than those who did not get the medicine.
> 
> The study involved just 30 patients. Of the 15 patients given the malaria drug, 13 tested negative for the coronavirus after a week of treatment. Of the 15 patients who didn't get *hydroxychloroquine,* 14 tested negative for the virus.


As is normal with the left wing MSM there are *NO* links to the Chinese study and the actual French study used a *combination of two drugs hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin,*, they had tree stands (1) placebo (2) hydroxychloroquine (3) hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin, it was the combination of the two drugs that worked. According to the hit piece the Chinese study used the drug hydroxychloroquine alone which as in the French study gave little improvement.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... e-in-study

https://techstartups.com/2020/03/18/bre ... dtrial-io/


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## roddy

wish i had time to watch all them bob,, rite now i am busy amazing at a bunch of my neighbours grouped together outside on the grass to give the NHS workers a resounding 8 oclock applause ,, now i thot that the NHS workers were desperately encouraging / pleading with everyone to stay indoors and practice social distancing ,,,,,,,,,,, some people .


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## SwissJetPilot

Post deleted by user.


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## John-H

That common good thing ... a dilemma ... privacy or more people die? Here's another dilemma:

The European Commission is creating a strategic stockpile of medical equipment such as ventilators and protective masks to help EU countries cope with the COVID-19 pandemic. All of which the UK is desperately short of because we went for "herd immunity" in the early stages and turned down our own manufacturers' offers to stockpile in late January so the stocks were exported. Now we are desperately trying to catch up and even getting Dyson to design and make some ventilators from scratch but they won't be available for months. We could be in crisis in two weeks.

Ursula von der Leyen said,_"With the first ever common European reserve of emergency medical equipment we put EU solidarity into action." "It will benefit all our member states and all our citizens. Helping one another is the only way forward."_

For the UK this poses an awkward dilemma. Could the politics of Brexit prevent the UK from requesting help from Brussels if the emergency in the UK becomes as serious as the situation in Italy? We are entitled to be part of this initiative because we are still in the transition period and single market and paying into the EU budget. So should we rally together with our neighbours or does the order placed with Dyson mean we've decided to suck up the political drawbridge and hope an untested supplier and design will see us through?

Here's how we are doing flattening the curve so far:










We are doubling every three days. If we don't bring the rate down we reach 80% of the population in five weeks.










https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/


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## ashfinlayson

What's really boiling my p*** is that we're all in lockdown behaving ourselves - I do the shopping online and jog the dog once per day, yet the builders behind me are carrying on 10-15 builders on a poxy site building flats (really important), all sharing 1 porter toilet, nowhere to wash their hands and all sitting in each others vans, coughing, climbing the same ladders etc. I overheard the head honcho talking to his minions saying we're going to carry on until they start paying the self employed, making out that he's looking after his boys. But it's all crap because it's a totally different workforce to the previous week - The previous lot had down tools due to the virus and he's gone out and found another squad of younger lads that care about the money more than their loved ones.

So we've got these types, all ltd and paying very little, won't even take a week off without someone paying them. While the rest of us realise that this is a rainy day we were taught to save for and get on with it.


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## SwissJetPilot

Post deleted by user.


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## Iceblue

John-H said:


> Don't believe in conspiracy theories - they are based on human imagination which comes from the desire to explain things people don't understand and ultimately they are always disproved and quietly forgotten. Believe in incompetence theories - they explain doing the wrong thing or delays in doing the right thing which all ultimately gets confirmed in the end. Happens every time.
> 
> Watch this and consider conspiracy or incompetence? :


Sounds like you are talking about climate change hysteria :lol:


----------



## bobclive22

Are you guy`s listening, we are on lockdown when there is possibly a cure, the French study shows immense promise, other countries including the US are testing it. I posted the Bloomberg article to indicate how the MSM are posting *Garbage*. This same Bloomberg article has been copied by *every *MSM outlet on the net, google (Malaria Drug Chloroquine No Better Than Regular Coronavirus Care, Study Finds) and see for yourself, something is wrong here.

Here is the hard to find link to the quoted Chinese study, there were *2* strands to the small study, (1) half had placebo (2) half had Hydroxychloroquine. The French study which showed 100% success used Hydroxychloroquine + Azithromycin, the dual therapy is the key.



> Results
> 
> Six patients were asymptomatic, 22 had upper respiratory tract infection symptoms and eight
> had lower respiratory tract infection symptoms.
> Twenty cases were treated in this study and showed a significant reduction of the viral
> carriage at D6-post inclusion compared to controls, and much lower average carrying duration
> than reported of untreated patients in the literature. *Azithromycin added to
> hydroxychloroquine was significantly more efficient for virus elimination*.
> 
> Conclusion


http://subject.med.wanfangdata.com.cn/U ... e1c77c.pdf ( Chinese study)

https://www.mediterranee-infection.com/ ... I_IJAA.pdf ( French study ).


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## roddy

no bob , they are not listening . all too conditioned to believing MSN ( you know, the ones owned by multimillionare right wing establishmentarians ) , like many other major events ( like pearl harbour , twin towers , Oaklahoma etc ) people are scared of leaving their comfort zones , even if it is not a very comfortable zone !!! but that should not stop us all taking very stringint measures to keep our individual selves co v free ,,, not so easy if you live in a large densely populated area ( fortunatly for me i do not )


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## John-H

I'll tell you something you need to watch - it's people making money at the expense of people's health.

We've seen Ash's example of the building site with the gaffer making out that he's looking after his workers whereas in actual fact his motivation is making money and to Hell with the health of his workers and their friends and families.

Shift that up to a bigger scale and notice the reporting from some sources suggesting that most will be Ok, it's only like flu, it's only the old and weak that will suffer who would eventually die anyway and there will be more harm caused from a recession. It smacks of interests behind the scenes looking after their bottom line.

We have Trump suggesting that people will be back at work in weeks because he's more interested in his election campaign. Amazing only weeks ago he was claiming the virus was a hoax, it would all blow over, it's all China and the EU's fault and now the rise in cases is due to the USA's exemplary testing effort - when we all know they were late starting, are way behind with inherent difficulties due to insurance based health care and no welfare cover and if you look at their death rate graph (log scale) you can see the rate is increasing because they were so slow. And he's claiming they will be back at work in weeks?

Here we have a ideological borne government initially favoring the herd immunity solution because it protects the economy, turning down invitations in late January from UK suppliers of PPE and ventilators to stock up the NHS for the oncoming tsunami. Stock which was instead exported. Now because of the realisation of an underfunded NHS overload and with half a million deaths if they did nothing they are taking action to prevent spread of the virus.

The government have been forced to intervene to protect society, even housing all the homeless by the weekend (amazing), but the ideological mind set still intervenes. They have invited ventilator contract agreements with JCB and Dyson because they are supporters of the same mind set and going it alone in a _cronyism virus_ initiative rather than joining in the EU wide initiative to join forces and support each other - claiming that they didn't see the email. The prior briefing from No 10 was telling - saying his morning the UK would not take part in the push to source more of the life-saving equipment because _"we are no longer members of the EU"._

Pressed if the decision was related to Brexit ideology, the spokesman said: _"No, as I say, this is an area where we're making our own efforts." _ Later they claimed they missed the email.

People's lives should take president, not ideology or financial self interest.

The world will be a different place after this. Hopefully the influence will be to bring us all back together. The clap for the NHS last night was inspiring.


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## roddy

hopefully not too many people listen to or believe either Trump or the Conservative camps, all of whom are self interested stooges of a capitalist establishment who do not care about anybody except themselves ,,, oh but i seem to have forgotten recent election results,, seems that people will listen to and believe anything ,,,,,,,,,,on ebay today , bottle of Dettol , 16£ ,, they used to call that exploiting a niche and that was the essence of capitalisim..


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## bobclive22

*



hopefully not too many people listen to or believe either Trump

Click to expand...

**Is this shear coincidence, the population of these countries take chloroquine and don`t get the Corona virus.*

The drug used to protect the residents of these countries listed below from Malaria is *chloroquine* repeat *chloroquine
*

*Countries With The Highest Rates Of Malaria*

UGANDA population 46,356,000 Corona cases 18 deaths *0*
Nigeria population 204,785,000 Corona cases 65 deaths *1*
Kenia population 53,460,000 Corona cases 31 deaths *0*
Democratic republic of Congo Population 89,560,000 Corona cases 48 deaths *4*

The drug used to safeguard these populations from Malaria is *chloroquine*

The French study I posted cured 100% of participants who were given hydroxychloroquine + azithromycin.

The majority of these new *MALARIA* cases and 90% of the resulting deaths occur in Africa. Uganda, for example, reported the highest number of new infections with 10.3 million. This figure is followed by Ghana with 8.8 million and another 6.3 million in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/cou ... laria.html

*Treating malaria at home in Uganda*



> In 2000, Gebreyesus Kidane and Richard Morrow reported in the Lancet a 40% reduction in under-five child mortality after mothers in Ethiopia were given simple training in recognizing fever and supplies of *chloroquine* for treatment at home.Dr Monica Olewe from WHO's Uganda Country Office said that this *chloroquine* and SP combination was specially developed for home-based care, one of a number of approaches in Uganda for reducing malaria deaths.





> sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine, the combination adopted by several African countries as the first line treatment for malaria when *chloroquine* has failed.


https://www.who.int/bulletin/volumes/84 ... 021006/en/

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC381032/


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## roddy

" the clap for the NHS was inspiring ",, really it just shows the docile attitude of the english people / electorate who just a couple of months ago voted for a party who vowed to destroy the NHS as we know it , and blowjob standing on the steps of no 10 was nothing short of insulting .


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## roddy

bob. i am all for the widespread use of these treatments , what i wonder is why are they not being used world wide ,, to whose advantage is it ,, there are so many contradictory issues arising i think it would be naive not to suspect something strange going on , not just that ,but the continuing one sided reporting from MSN, led in this country by the BBC,,, obviously considering all options does not reduce the need for serious self protection , 
PS , i wonder if blowjob johnston and prince charles were given these treatmants.


----------



## bobclive22

> Roy W. Spencer
> about a week ago
> WOW.
> 
> On the subject of using antimalarial drugs for COVID-19 treatment, I've compared COVID-19 cases versus malaria incidence by country....
> 
> *This is amazing.* I downloaded all of the data for 234 countries, incidence of total COVID-19 cases (as of 3/17/2020) versus the incidence of malaria in those countries (various sources, kinda messy matching everything up in Excel).
> 
> RESULTS, Multi-country average malaria cases per thousand, COVID-19 cases per million, in three classes of countries based on malaria incidence:
> 
> Top 40 Malaria countries: 212 malaria = 0.2 COVID-19;
> Next 40 Malaria countries: 7.3 malaria = 10.1 COVID-19
> Remaining (81-234) countries: 0.00 malaria = 68.7 COVID-19
> 
> Again, the units are Malaria cases per thousand "population at risk", and COVID-19 cases per million total population.
> 
> *In all my years of data analysis I have never seen such a stark and strong relationship*: Countries with malaria basically have no COVID-19 cases (at least not yet).
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Roy Spencer
> 
> Scientist
> 
> drroyspencer.com
> 
> Roy Warren Spencer is a meteorologist, a principal research scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville, and the U.S. Science Team leader for the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer on NASA's Aqua satellite. He has served as senior scientist for climate studies at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center. He is known for his satellite-based temperature monitoring work, for which he was awarded the American Meteorological Society's Special Award
Click to expand...

The 4 counties with the highest incidence of Malaria
Still the most widely used and cheapest drug to combat malaria is *chloroquine*

The recent French study used *hydroxychloroquine + Azithromycin *which cured all the participants in that arm of the study. As President Trump stated ( *this is a game changer*)

https://spectator.org/the-game-changer- ... was-right/

Uganda population 46,355,000 Corona cases 18 deaths 0
Nigeria population 204,785,000 Corona cases 65 deaths 1
Kenya population 53,460,000 Corona cases 31 deaths 0
Democratic republic of Congo 89,560,000 Corona cases 48 deaths 4

wow, just wow.

Sorry about this second post, I thought the first one got lost, anyway Roy Spencer is a world class scientist and well respected.


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## bobclive22

Game Changer, the cure is here.


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## roddy

so ,,, does that make you wonder who is stopping the use of it and why ???
or will it just be dismissed as fake news


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## ashfinlayson

It's not just about the developers wanting to cash in, it's also about the self employed wanting to carry on making money even though they will now be bailed out just like everyone else. These trades boil my p*** because they do cash work which they pay no tax on, they pay themselves the minimal PAYE salaries that the pay no tax on, they offset their vehicles, their fuel, their tools and their clothes so they pay sod all into the system and now they make out that _they have to carry on_ it's a selfish lie that's costing lives.

It's also down to a lack of understanding and ignorance. I overheard one youngish chippy the other day (this site is _right_ behind my house incase you didn't figure that out) _"Well we haven't got a choice though have we"_ and his older colleague/boss whatever says _"yeah of course you have, you don't have to come to work"_ then they carry on. Then at lunch time, I'm out outside with my daughter and they all start their lunchtime congregation, sat in and around vans, laughing and joking about it, one block leaning into the open passenger seat window of the sprinter that has 3 others sat in it saying _"They say the flu kill more people than this virus anyway, it's all bollocks if you ask me" _

I couldn't bring myself to have a go at these chumps, it's on my doorstep after all, but to be clear - My sisters veterinary practice was cleaned out of ventilators that go up to 10kg. Now tell me what age group weigh less than 10kg?


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## TJS

Neighbours self employed gardeners showed up yesterday to mow the lawns and tidy the garden for a birthday party and barbecue on Sunday. Some people just don't get it ... stay at home !!


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## ashfinlayson

TJS said:


> Neighbours self employed gardeners showed up yesterday to mow the lawns and tidy the garden for a birthday party and barbecue on Sunday. Some people just don't get it ... stay at home !!


Report them, you want the police to show up during their sunday party and close it down, morons.


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## StuartDB

I have wanted to create a generic snitch app for ages, for everything from not parking in bays properly. Littering, and now even better talking to strangers. 

I think someone else was going on about using chlorine recently, then had their posts deleted from youtube.

Crazy death rate in Italy for confirmed cases with an outcome is 44%. Including 46 hospital doctors.

You can tell the UK are not testing as UK death rate for cases with an outcome is 80% as only recorded 135 recovered which surely cannot be right.

Loving question time yesterday when government were reminded they initially wanted to get a herd immunity, and the Tory MP said that's bit true.. Errm yes it was we all watched it being said.

We have had the discussion already at home and probably won't go to hospital if my wife gets ill from it, she already has air and a nebuliser, along with shed loads of meds. Which is the 1st stage of help, and will not be a priority for a ventilator and unlikely to recover with emphasema in one lung and brochiotesis in the other so regularly gets chest infections with anti-biotics which she has at the moment. I was reading an article yesterday where doctors were expecting lots of families to be deciding whether they should die alone in hospital in order r o give the he ventilator to a key worker etc, or at home with their family.


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## SamDorey

This was over Hungary yesterday.


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## bobclive22

*And what is the UK doing?* other than banning the export of this drug.



> so ,,, does that make you wonder who is stopping the use of it and why ???
> or will it just be dismissed as fake news





> Dr. Vladimir (Zev) Zelenko
> Board Certified Family Practitioner
> 501 Rt 208, Monroe, NY 10950
> 845-238-0000
> 
> March 23, 2020
> 
> To all medical professionals around the world:
> 
> My name is Dr. Zev Zelenko and I practice medicine in Monroe, NY. For the last 16 years, I have cared for approximately 75% of the adult population of Kiryas Joel, which is a very close knit community of approximately 35,000 people in which the infection spread rapidly and unchecked prior to the imposition of social distancing.
> 
> As of today my team has tested approximately 200 people from this community for Covid-19, and 65% of the results have been positive. If extrapolated to the entire community, that means more than 20,000 people are infected at the present time. Of this group, I estimate that there are 1500 patients who are in the high-risk category (i.e. >60, immunocompromised, comorbidities, etc).
> 
> Given the urgency of the situation, I developed the following treatment protocol in the pre-hospital setting and have seen *only positive results*:
> 
> *1. Any patient with shortness of breath regardless of age is treated.
> 2. Any patient in the high-risk category even with just mild symptoms is treated.
> 3. Young, healthy and low risk patients even with symptoms are not treated (unless their circumstances change and they fall into category 1 or 2).*
> 
> My out-patient treatment regimen is as follows:
> 
> 1. Hydroxychloroquine 200mg twice a day for 5 days
> 2. Azithromycin 500mg once a day for 5 days
> 3. Zinc sulfate 220mg once a day for 5 days
> 
> The rationale for my treatment plan is as follows. I combined the data available from China and South Korea with the recent study published from France (sites available on request). We know that hydroxychloroquine helps Zinc enter the cell. We know that Zinc slows viral replication within the cell. Regarding the use of azithromycin, I postulate it prevents secondary bacterial infections. These three drugs are well known and usually well tolerated, hence the risk to the patient is low.
> 
> Since last Thursday, my team has treated approximately 350 patients in Kiryas Joel and another 150 patients in other areas of New York with the above regimen.
> 
> Of this group and the information provided to me by affiliated medical teams, we have had ZERO deaths, ZERO hospitalizations, and ZERO intubations. In addition, I have not heard of any negative side effects other than approximately 10% of patients with temporary nausea and diarrhea.
> 
> In sum, my urgent recommendation is to initiate treatment in the outpatient setting as soon as possible in accordance with the above. Based on my direct experience, it prevents acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), prevents the need for hospitalization and saves lives.
> 
> With much respect,
> 
> Dr. Zev Zelenko
> 
> cc: President Donald J. Trump; Mr. Mark Meadows, Chief of Staff


https://www.covidtrial.io


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## roddy

and is that available on demand if you can afford it ??


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## bobclive22

Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection

GIGO, another expert from Oxford.

https://www.dailywire.com/news/epidemio ... ises-model

*British Pathologist: Why COVID-19's Death Rate May Be Lower Than We Feared*

https://www.dailywire.com/news/british- ... -we-feared



> The simplest way to judge whether we have an exceptionally lethal disease is to look at the death rates. Are more people dying than we would expect to die anyway in a given week or month? Statistically, we would expect about 51,000 to die in Britain this month. At the time of writing, 422 deaths are linked to COVID-19 - so 0.8 percent of that expected total. On a global basis, we'd expect 14 million to die over the first three months of the year. The world's 18,944 coronavirus deaths represent 0.14 percent of that total. These figures might shoot up but they are, right now, lower than other infectious diseases that we live with (such as flu). Not figures that would, in and of themselves, cause drastic global reactions.


https://spectator.us/deadly-coronavirus ... -covid-19/


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## John-H

Those antimalarial drugs like chloroquine were reported on the BBC undergoing trials back in February. It's trial development is well known and widely reported as a possibility (e.g. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/51980731) so I fail to understand references to a conspiracy not to report it. It's part of the worldwide effort.

I would however be wary of any studies playing down the impact of the pandemic. The UK is not China and we were late applying a "lock down" which actually is nowhere near as strict. If you like conspiracy theories you might consider the motivations of those, who facing losses, might be keen to put the economy first over people's lives and drip feed us with doubt - like claiming it's only like flu when it clearly isn't.

We are still on a doubling every three days trajectory:


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## roddy

it is not a case of " liking conspiracy theories ",, its a case of opening ones eyes to what might be / seems to be very plauseable information,,, especially since our " powers that be " have a history of telling lies to the population


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## John-H

Well, I don't like conspiracy theories as explained. It's far more likely to be incompetence but in this case to be fair it takes time to gather the evidence so maybe it's impatience and frustration driving the need to explain the lack of perceived action and that's where the theories come in.


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## bobclive22

> I would however be wary of any studies playing down the impact of the pandemic. The UK is not China and we were late applying a "lock down" which actually is nowhere near as strict.


Watch these video`s John, Listen to what Dr Zelenco is saying, he is treating the most vulnerable before they are so ill they need to be hospitalised. No one out of the hundreds of patients he has treated needed hospital treatment as they all recovered. Once hospitalised the same medication is used but it is then too late as the damage has been done.
The elderly are dying because there is *NO* treatment being offered, this regime of Dr Zelenco backed up with the french study gives hope. This drug is *safe*, it`s been used for years, it`s cheap and the side effects are *mild*, every patient over 60 should be treated with it. 
There is NOTHING else available.





 Dr. Zelenko Mar 22, 2020




 Dr. Zelenko Mar 24, 2020




 Dr. Zelenko Mar 24, 2020


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## John-H

Yes, I know that Bob. There are plenty of reports and they are doing trials to see if it can be repeated for this and other drugs. They are also taking steps to stop people self medicating before anything is confirmed. I seem to remember hearing on the BBC World service a some weeks back about people in Africa overdosing from self medication and in the case of Plaquenil long-term or high high doses may cause irreversible damage to the retina of your eye - so some care needs to be taken.

You should read this Bob - it includes your French study and further evidence from China: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... uine-trump


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## bobclive22

> Yes, I know that Bob. There are plenty of reports and they are doing trials to see if it can be repeated for this and other drugs. They are also taking steps to stop people self medicating before anything is confirmed.


John, the drug is cheap, available and the side effects if any are mild, you can overdose on aspirin for gods sake.

Look on the bright side John,






Dr Zelenco Update,








> in the case of Plaquenil long-term or high high doses may cause irreversible damage to the retina of your eye


John, It`s a 5 day course, the dosage will be on the box, the dosage used by Dr Zelenco is stated clearly on his video, I really don`t understand your logic here, are you suggesting we just let it roll, accept hundreds maybe thousands more elderly deaths when a treatment is available.


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## roddy

it is happening , but still it is not believed .


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## John-H

Bob there's little and anecdotal evidence as yet - there're the claims of this doctor, a too small French study and again small but claims from China that the drug is no more effective than bed rest - that's what the bigger trials are for to gather some proper evidence.

Did you know that Dr Zelenko has been sharing social media messages claiming that the virus is a Chinese manufactured population control instrument. That doesn't fill me with confidence.

We are likely to have this lock down for 11 to 12 weeks by the way. Hopefully the curve will flatten - if not expect a lot longer.


----------



## John-H

> There's worrying news around the world of people self-medicating at home with the drugs chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine to treat COVID-19. There's since been reports of chloroquine poisoning and even death after taking the drug. Scientists first reported chloroquine's potential against coronaviruses after the Sars epidemic in 2003.
> 
> Part of the recent confusion seems to have followed US president Donald Trump's announcement on Twitter that implied hydroxychloroquine and another drug (the antibiotic azithromycin) taken together could treat novel coronavirus. The US Food and Drug Administration released a statement in response, saying they're still looking into whether chloroquine can treat people with mild to moderate symptoms of COVID-19. Neither of these drugs have been approved in the US to treat COVID-19. Tests are still being conducted elsewhere, including in China, to see whether they can help treat patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19.


https://www.theconversation.com/amp/chl ... ans-134703


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## John-H

So, quite disgusting if true. Trump yesterday said he rang up Boris Johnson and said that the first thing Johnson said to him was, _*"We need ventilators".*_ So having turned down EU help over this for political reasons and claiming the UK is sorting its own ventilators, Johnson now makes a desperate plea to Trump.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 1.html?amp

The government's mismanagement and missed opportunities including failing to take up an offer of an extra 25,000 ventilators which instead went to other countries is astonishing. The NHS only has 8,000 and needs at least another 20,000 in two to three weeks:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/vent ... 85941683d1

The Telegraph reveals that the NHS failed a pademic exercise test three years ago but the "terrifying" results were kept secret:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.telegr ... three/amp/

Meanwhile the doubling of new cases every three days continues:









https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

And the death toll tops 1,000:










https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/


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## StuartDB

No one else has ventilators either (Germany are treating Spanish and Italian patients but will stop as they have start getting more ill people), that's why the current advice circulating for chronically ill people is #dieathome with your family instead of alone sedated in hospital. There'll be some stem cell treatment for things like this in a few years to allow old and infirm to regenerate the damaged diseased gas exchange alveoli cells.

To be fair Im not sure how some people are super ill and others not....

We both had weird things for about 5 or 6 days (no temperature) we sort of lost taste and had pain drinking cold or hot drinks, like a sore throat but not in our throat directly, and then a sort of anchor shaped pain for about 2 days, down from throat to breast plate then out towards as arm pits.


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## StuartDB

roddy said:


> it is not a case of " liking conspiracy theories ",, its a case of opening ones eyes to what might be / seems to be very plauseable information,,, especially since our " powers that be " have a history of telling lies to the population


Cabin fever has made you paranoid.


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## SwissJetPilot

Post deleted by user.


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## John-H

Andrew, I really appreciate your polite debating style but you use the word "fact" like it was a fact whereas what you mean is preferred opinion.

It's on record and widely reported that the UK government ignored offers from UK ventilator and PPE manufacturers back as far as late January to place orders and secure production - read the articles I linked.

To make a blanket comment that nobody was prepared is misleading by giving the impression that every country is in the same position which is clearly not the case.

The NHS has been run at 95% to 100% capacity for years whereas Germany runs their health service at 80% capacity - hence they have capacity for a pandemic unlike or NHS which failed a pandemic exercise three years ago (* which has just come to light* ) and why we are struggling now - not helped by the government wasting weeks through pursuing a herd immunity policy before abandoning it and putting politics before health by not joining in the EU scheme.

The NHS doesn't have spare capacity - we are cancelling operations to free up beds. We only have 8,000 ventilators.

Germany has around 28,000 intensive care beds and possesses 25,000 ventilators, with 10,000 more on the way.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/opin ... y.amp.html

Germany manufactures ventilators and their government was well ahead of the UK placing orders. The USA who are also well behind again due to political denial and dogma it seems, have at last just placed an order for 100,000 but it's too late and won't be fulfilled in time described as "absolutely mission impossible":

https://www.spiegel.de/international/ge ... 54b008-amp

So to sum up:

(1) The NHS has been run at 95% to100% capacity for years so we have no spare capacity.

(2) The government has known for three years that the NHS was incapable of handling a pandemic yet did nothing about it.

(3) The government initially put the economy before health by going for herd immunity and lost time and opportunity turning down offers of PPE equipment and vital ventilators.

(4) For political reasons the government declined to join forces with the EU to pool availability of PPE and ventilators.

The consequences of this folly, dogma and mismanagement have yet to play out.


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## John-H

*Nantwich firm blasts Government over delay after offering 5,000 ventilators*










_*"The idea of getting existing British companies to learn how to manufacture ventilators is not the route forward, we do not have time."

"I am incredibly frustrated with the British Government and the current 'manana' attitude.
*_
https://thenantwichnews.co.uk/2020/03/2 ... ntilators/


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## bobclive22

> https://www.theconversation.com/amp/chl ... ans-134703


*Misinformation, John do some homework. The advice to the elderly if they get Coronus symptems is stay at home and dont ring 111 for 7 days, bit then late then I think, are you suggesting John that we wait until the pandemic ends then test it,*

We are not talking about chloroquine, but about *using hydroxychloroquine together with azithromycin*



> Hydroxychloroquine, which has been around since 1955, is similar to chloroquine but less toxic. But it does have some side effects, including stomach problems and long-term problems for the eyes. Like chloroquine, hydroxychloroquine is used to treat rheumatoid arthritis and lupus, and is also used for managing sun allergies.


Misinformation

The course is 7 days and eye problems rarely occur and only with long term use
No one is advocating using chloroquine for Coronas.



> Chloroquine has been used to treat malaria for many years, but it stopped working against malaria caused by the Plasmodium Falciparum parasite which is common in sub-Saharan Africa. Despite this, chloroquine is still available to buy in Nigeria where people have starting taking it for COVID-19 - leading to reports of accidental poisonings.


Chloroquine is still the *first line of defence* against malaria.



> First, it's really easy to get the dose of chloroquine wrong and end up with too much of it in the body if taken without medical advice. Too much chloroquine is poisonous. Symptoms of chloroquine poisoning include feeling sick or having a stomachache, vomiting, feeling sleepy and body shakes. Without urgent medical care, your breathing and heart can stop, or you could slip into a coma. Patients can die very quickly from chloroquine poisoning - within a few hours.


No one is suggesting self medication, the same can happen with Aspirin as it did in the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic, the large doses of aspirin which killed millions were given under *medical supervision*



> hydroxychoroquine have been tested against the novel coronavirus both in the lab, and in patients. But none of the studies so far show convincing evidence that chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine work against COVID-19.


Yes they have, reference the French study and off label treatment by US doctors, including Dr Dr. Zelenko.



> Some hospitals are also publishing guidelines for their staff which include the use of both drugs in treating patients with COVID-19 and lower respiratory tract infections. But from a scientific angle, there's still reason to be cautious until these trials are finished, and the results are known.


By that time it is too late, the lung damage is far to advanced, that`s the reason there are so many deaths in hospitals.

In India all medical staff treating Coronus patients recieve a course of hydroxychloroquine + azithromycin .


----------



## John-H

Obtuse Bob. You've latched onto something you believe in and are treating it like a solid pier reviewed and field tested fact. It isn't.

(1) There's no proper evidence yet for any of these treatments being effective as a preventative - either the one you claim or similar ones.

(2) Pretending there is and propagating misinformation around the internet encourages people to obtain their own medicines precisely because it is not being offered by the authorities as a licenced preventative treatment and because it offers hope which encourages them to obtain their own supply of either what is being talked about or something "similar" they find and self medicate - people have died because of this.

(3) There is more than one solution under trial so there is little use in you insisting you know precisely what the solution is. You don't. You don't have any acceptable evidence yet because nobody does. When they do it will be reported on the news and implemented - you won't know for sure first because of some obscure YouTube video.

Here's a way you can help by lending your computer power to join a network to find a solution:

https://www.hpcwire.com/2020/03/16/fold ... -covid-19/


----------



## SwissJetPilot

Post deleted by user.


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## John-H

It's simple maths Andrew.

Running your health service at 80% capacity is being *more prepared* than continuously running it flat out at 95%-100% capacity with no spare beds.

Having 25,000 ventilators is being *more prepared* than having 8,000 ventilators. As is ordering even more in time for when they will be needed.

I'm sure most sensible people would wish we were as prepared as Germany. If the USA were so prepared why have they tried to order 100,000 ventilators from Germany?

Sniff sniff.... Can you smell toast burning?


----------



## StuartDB

Considering the NHS have advised today that the survival rate from patients put onto a ventilator is 50%
All that does is add 1 or 2 days time. So a different treatment is required.

My wife takes loads of medicines which could actually help in treatment to prolong life including a shed load of Viagra every day, medicine to stop the build up of any fluid in respiratory system. Some other stuff which
Improves the gas exchange performance.

I actually think the hint from Trump for these drugs was to trigger a mass of human trials, by 1000s of people sourcing it themselves - then reviewing the data. Rather than a 6 month lab trial.


----------



## Iceblue

Swiss is right John. The UK government decisions you refer to were in a context that was different to the situation the UK finds itself in today. The WHO had not even declared a pandemic on the dates you mention. BTW, a non compulsory lock down strategy does not equal herd immunity. No one knows whether a total lockdown can be successful other than flattening a curve that can recommence when you come out of lockdown once re-infection commences. If you have read Swiss's earlier article, the most lives were lost in the second wave of the Spanish flu following various unsuccessful lockdowns in regions of the US.

We have not locked down like the UK nor have many of the successful countries in Asia that seem to be beating the virus (read Taiwan & Singapore). Our death rate is .4% on over 3,800 cases without any lockdown and with our schools only just closing now due to the bringing forward of school holidays. Yes part of the recreational econony has been shut down a week ago with thousands unemployed but the rest go to work if they cannot work at home. Meanwhile we are being asked to voluntarily stay at home with restrictions on outdoor numbers and social distancing. I don't know if our results are sustainable although our rate of increase in new infections has dropped from 25-30% a day to below 14 % and today 9%. Yes we may ultimately go into full lockdown if this trend reverses, but there are many ways to combat this virus and each country is unique for many different reasons that future reseach will determine. No one really knows the best way and people are making decisions that no one can really know are right or wrong, all of which are based on expert medical advice in all the circumstances.

Also, your judgement on your governments incompetance cannot be compared to anything other than say, Jeremy Corban running this for you, and lets face it that would of been the end of your economy with far more suffering as a result.


----------



## John-H

StuartDB said:


> Considering the NHS have advised today that the survival rate from patients put onto a ventilator is 50%
> All that does is add 1 or 2 days time. So a different treatment is required.
> 
> My wife takes loads of medicines which could actually help in treatment to prolong life including a shed load of Viagra every day, medicine to stop the build up of any fluid in respiratory system. Some other stuff which
> Improves the gas exchange performance.
> 
> I actually think the hint from Trump for these drugs was to trigger a mass of human trials, by 1000s of people sourcing it themselves - then reviewing the data. Rather than a 6 month lab trial.


Not sure what you mean by one or two days. If you are in the lucky 50% surviving you could live for years.

Getting the public to experiment themselves with random drugs would just result in a shed load of anecdotal evidence and chaos - to say nothing of people overdosing and killing themselves. Trump is dangerous in his comments and contradicted by his own health secretary. Any proper evidence needs a controlled trial and they are going on.

I hope you and your wife are Ok.


----------



## bobclive22

> I actually think the hint from Trump for these drugs was to trigger a mass of human trials, by 1000s of people sourcing it themselves - then reviewing the data. Rather than a 6 month lab trial.


Drugs need a prescription, can`t get them without so they need medical supervision.

The drug is well understood, here is a brilliant clear explanation on how it works, Dr Zelenko obviously understood this as he is the only doctor adding zink with the 2 drugs.








> Getting the public to experiment themselves with random drugs would just result in a shed load of anecdotal evidence and chaos - to say nothing of people overdosing and killing themselves. Trump is dangerous in his comments and contradicted by his own health secretary. Any proper evidence needs a controlled trial and they are going on.


Don`t be idiotic John, watch the Bl**dy video and learn something, no`one is suggesting self medication.


----------



## John-H

Iceblue said:


> Swiss is right John.


Well, no he clearly isn't. If he had said nobody was expecting it then fine but he said nobody was prepared more than anyone else when it's quite clear that the way the UK has been running its NHS over the last 10 years with no spare capacity and a lack of equipment and staff means it's less prepared than Germany which has more spare capacity and more equipment therefore they are more prepared for unexpected emergencies like this. It's got nothing to do with when the WHO declares a pandemic it's to do with what state your health service is in - how prepared you are for the unexpected emergencies. Do you follow?



Iceblue said:


> Also, your judgement on your governments incompetance cannot be compared to anything other than say, Jeremy Corban running this for you, and lets face it that would of been the end of your economy with far more suffering as a result.


I'm sure the Labour party would not have let the NHS get this run down like it has been over the last ten years by the Tories so it would have been better prepared for emergencies on a continuous basis had Labour been in charge - that's to do with funding and capacity. Labour created the NHS.

The incompetence of the government's handling of recent decisions is a reaction to the unfolding emergency and it does appear that dogma has got in the way. It's well explained here:


----------



## bobclive22

Update, March 28 2020.






New French study with 80 people.

https://www.youtube.com/redirect?event= ... HU-2-1.pdf


----------



## John-H

bobclive22 said:


> I actually think the hint from Trump for these drugs was to trigger a mass of human trials, by 1000s of people sourcing it themselves - then reviewing the data. Rather than a 6 month lab trial.
> 
> 
> 
> Drugs need a prescription, can`t get them without so they need medical supervision.
> 
> The drug is well understood, here is a brilliant clear explanation on how it works, Dr Zelenko obviously understood this as he is the only doctor adding zink with the 2 drugs.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Getting the public to experiment themselves with random drugs would just result in a shed load of anecdotal evidence and chaos - to say nothing of people overdosing and killing themselves. Trump is dangerous in his comments and contradicted by his own health secretary. Any proper evidence needs a controlled trial and they are going on.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> Don`t be idiotic John, watch the B***** video and learn something, no`one is suggesting self medication.
Click to expand...

Bob I would suggest you moderate your language and avoid personal insults.

I had already watched your video. I know he was not suggesting people self medicated but what you seem not to appreciate is that you can't just march up to your doctor and demand he gives you some drugs you saw on YouTube - even if the bloke on the video claims he's a doctor.

You need to have the treatment licenced for use and you need evidence it works. There is none. You believing what you see on YouTube does not constitute evidence. These things can get trialed in a clinical environment or by a health authority and that's the way you can get evidence.

The more you propagate videos you've seen on YouTube and claim them to be facts and evidence the more chance there is of people believing it and as I've patiently explained but you seem not to appreciate - precisely because people can't obtain the treatment from their doctor means they are far more likely to self medicate by trying to obtain these things off the internet or use other stuff they think is equivalent. Promoting unproven health treatments in this situation, like Trump, is dangerous.


----------



## bobclive22

> You need to have the treatment licenced for use and you need evidence it works. There is none. You believing what you see on YouTube does not constitute evidence. These things can get trialed in a clinical environment or by a health authority and that's the way you can get evidence.


The drugs are licenced and safe, they are being used off label which is acceptable, there is not time for lengthy studies, this combination of 2 drugs won`t kill anyone but it might save them. You appear like doctor doom John.


----------



## John-H

bobclive22 said:


> You need to have the treatment licenced for use and you need evidence it works. There is none. You believing what you see on YouTube does not constitute evidence. These things can get trialed in a clinical environment or by a health authority and that's the way you can get evidence.
> 
> 
> 
> The drugs are licenced and safe, they are being used off label which is acceptable.
Click to expand...

The drugs are standard but the treatment combination is not. What I said still stands you can't get this treatment and there's no evidence it works.



bobclive22 said:


> Update, March 28 2020.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> New French study with 80 people.
> 
> https://www.youtube.com/redirect?event= ... HU-2-1.pdf


Case in point - it was an uncontrolled study and as somebody commented:



> The uncontrolled study had 1 death divided by 80 infected patients = 1.25% death rate which is higher than Germany's death rate of 399 deaths divided by 53,350 infected patients = 0.75%. Anyone who is trained in science will be unimpressed with this study. Maybe we need to look at why Germany is so successful until we we have more studies with plaquenil that use control groups.


Your cure seems to be ineffective on that basis. You need better evidence than that.


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## bobclive22

Waste of time Discussing this with you John, perhaps you might see it differently if you were 79 with a recent past cardiac arrest and a defibrillator stuck in your chest.
I`m gone.


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## John-H

Well, I would hope you get proper effective preventive treatment if or when it becomes available and not something that gives you false hope or a false sense of security. At least we got you to take Covid-19 seriously and stop claiming it was only like flu and nothing to worry about. That realisation could save your life.


----------



## roddy

bobclive22 said:


> You need to have the treatment licenced for use and you need evidence it works. There is none. You believing what you see on YouTube does not constitute evidence. These things can get trialed in a clinical environment or by a health authority and that's the way you can get evidence.
> 
> 
> 
> The drugs are licenced and safe, they are being used off label which is acceptable, there is not time for lengthy studies, this combination of 2 drugs won`t kill anyone but it might save them. You appear like doctor doom John.
Click to expand...

they would rather let people die than give them something which might kill them,,, mmm , bit flawed if it was me


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## ashfinlayson

Not often that I agree with John when it comes to politics, but in this case I do. Johnson's lot sat with a thumb up their arses for too long, production on vital hardware and supplies could have started at least six weeks ago and the NHS would be in a much better position.

However, I see a lot of posts online usually from the lippy liberals, banging on about this pandemic being the fault of an underfunded NHS etc, but that is frankly bollocks, as Andrew says, no one in the world could be fully prepared for this. But wasting two months or preparation and turning down help of industry is unforgivable.

I hope when all this is over, there is a public enquiry into decisions made.


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## Iceblue

bobclive22 said:


> Waste of time Discussing this with you John, perhaps you might see it differently if you were 79 with a recent past cardiac arrest and a defibrillator stuck in your chest.
> I`m gone.


Thats dissapointing Bob as your research and ability to bring these developments, whether sanctioned or otherwise has been interesting and could have merit. The fact that you can source this stuff means that the Doctors and medical institutions are aware of it as well, as highlighted from that Doctor in NY that is currently treating his patients with it.

But as John said, this is all we can do and hope that those charged with these responsibilities see fit to use it, and if not, have a good reason for not so doing. We all have to respect their professional expertise and process on this hence the danger of creating false hope and worst case, unintended negative health consequences. The latter seems unlikely given the information you have provided but again the experts would be aware of this.


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## Iceblue

well done Bob looks like France is adopting Chloroquine zinc treatment and others incl Italy are soon to follow. Well done Donald Trump bringing this to the worlds attention two weeks ago despite the hostile press trying to make political mileage out of it.


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## roddy

hope not bob and wish you all the best ( do you not have a contact to get some of that chloro and zinc stuff , ) . your contributions have been very enlightening to those who of an open mind and are aware of what MSM are capable of .

*MOD EDIT:* Please don't encourage people to self medicate with unapproved medication. The UK government are considering legislation to make it illegal for social media and internet publishers to host false or misleading information during this crisis.


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## ashfinlayson

These new positive pressure masks sound really promising to keep patients out of ICU, I hope they can get enough manufactured in time


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## John-H

Regarding the chloroquine and Zink treatment - It would be good if it works but let's be precise about what's been decided. Are we talking about proof that it works as a preventative from a trial, permission for use in a preventative trial or approval of a trial for treatment of severe cases?

From this report it would seem to be the latter:

*
"The anti-malarial drug chloroquine can be administered in France to patients suffering from the severest forms of the coronavirus but only under strict supervision."

"The high council recommends not to use this treatment&#8230; with the exception of grave cases, hospitalized, on the basis of a decision taken by doctors and under strict surveillance."*
https://techstartups.com/2020/03/28/bre ... -patients/

The reasons are discussed by a French and a British Doctor interviewed in a video at the bottom of the article. Please watch it.

It is a very good discussion and explains the reasons why approval has only been granted on a national level for critical patients as a last resort on compassionate ethical basis. It also explains why it is dangerous and unethical and statistically unsound to give approval for this treatment as a preventative or even in mild initial symptom cases on a national level outside its approved use - before proper statistical evidence is available. It explains how one French doctor can ethically run a preventative trial within his jurisdiction and responsibility but why the results are not statistically valid, should not be accepted for national use by any county yet and how personal belief in ones own work is inadequate proof. It explains how and why scientific evidence needs to be repeated independently in controlled trials, peer reviewed and the reasons why it is dangerous to jump to conclusions.

The discussion reminded me of an episode of BBC2 Horizon when a French medical team led by a charismatic doctor became convinced it had proof that homeopathic water has a measurable effect on cancer cells. The French paper was submitted to the Lancet for publication and review and the editor called in the services of the magician James Randi and the BBC Horizon team to investigate. James Randi showed that there was no deliberate fraud but what was happening was the cumulative effect of belief. The team counting cells on microscope slides had to make subjective judgements about which cells to include in one total compared to another and because the team believed in their leader they were subtlety and unconsciously persuaded to favour a positive result.

James Randi insisted they perform a double blind trial by counting the results of normal and homeopathic water. The team agreed but when Randi took the fresh samples and removed the identification, replacing it with a random number and putting the key to identification in a sealed envelope and sticking it on the ceiling the French doctor was indignant accusing Randi of not trusting him and treating him like a child. When things calmed down the team agreed to test all the samples and record the results.

When the envelope was opened and the sample results sorted into homeopathic and normal water there was no statistically significant difference. Some of the team burst into tears and the doctor stormed out in embarrassment.

That taught me a valuable lesson in science. You need to remove belief and rely on valid verifiable statistical proof and independent pier review. The same principals are involved here. Let's hope there is a cure but let's be sure about what we are doing.


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## roddy

ok john ,, so just let the people die while others need proof which will take weeks ??? ,,, btw ,, my brother survived cancer for 16 years refusing chemotherapy in favour of homeopathetic remedy , at the amazement and against recommendations from all of his " specialists " . the cloro zink thing has been getting used in S Korea , NY , Louisiana and now FRance and appaerntly Italy are soon to follow ,,, why wait ?? you might mention long term side effects but many of these patients are elderly and some with underlying issues so many of them do not have a psticularlly long term plan anyway ,, give it to them now ..


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## John-H

Roddy, watch the video in the article I posted. One of the side effects is an adverse effect for patients with heart conditions.


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## roddy

i have ( not all 40 mins !! ) but glad to see that what has been getting debunked for over a week now is at last being used ,, i suspect that the major drug companies who have no financial gain in the use of this measure are somewhat behind the non use ,,, yes sure it has to be used under proper medical supervision , as are all drugs , ( and i mean proper ,not just someone who gets drafted in and may have been resisting its use up until now ), someone who has experience of and belief in its use . it looks like maybe the corner has been turned and the deniers will be ignored .. 
ps, tbh, i was a bit put off by the inclusion in the derogitory use of the term " maveric " in the title and suspect some sort of influence was intended .
pps.. thans f. or the link.
pppps , and thanks to bob for his resiliance and hammering away at the wall .


----------



## Iceblue

Great vid John and thanks. Hopefully there is some solid proof one way or another in 6 days. If there is it could be a worldsaver and then we can focus on obtaining reparations from China for the deaths and property loss they have caused worldwide by not closing their wet markets which were also the source of the earlier viruses that fortunately did not become pandemics.


----------



## roddy

( i may have missed something ) ,, and still no mention of it in MSM , dear old BBC is still spouting out government panic measures .


----------



## John-H

I first heard about it on the BBC at the start of the outbreak. It had an oblique mention this morning in reference to Trump's comments but it's not headline presumably because of the state it's at.

There's been far more mention of testing needing to be stepped up to include the whole population so we can contact trace and isolate the infection. We can currently manage 10,000 per week. Germany can do 100,000 per week and are set to double this. This might explain their success in keeping the death rate low.

Also mentioned as Ash did earlier is the availability in time for the peak (hopefully) of CPAP (continuous positive airway pressure) machines if their trials go well which could be produced at 1,000 per day. Not the same as ventilators.

There's some sign that hospital admissions heave reduced due to the isolation measures.

Also looming a few weeks off will be crops going to waste because there are no migrant workers able to come over.


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## John-H

Update on hospital admissions referred to as "reduced" - seems what was meant was still at same rate (logarithmic) which is still an exponential rise:


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## roddy

main national news ,, no mention of serious trials on what may become a game changer .


----------



## John-H

There are other things being tried - that's only one drug trial. It's being trialled by Oxford university on the same critical ethical basis by one of the drug companies providing funding. There's mention of it and others and also the trouble caused by the hype here:
https://inews.co.uk/news/health/major-c ... us-2521984
https://www.theguardian.com/science/202 ... s-patients


----------



## roddy

yes John ,, the dundee one was on the scottish news ,, but for a vaccine and 4 months down the line ,, yes fine but not what is needed now .. one death attributed to ill informed and unsupervised self medication ,, most serious drugs can result in death if unsupervised , but you can not just dismiss something out of hand because of the actions of one fool .. hoarding etc, if a controlled program was in place there would be no need for panic hoarding . it is now more than a week since this discussion started all over the world , ( largely suppressed by MSM ), that is plenty of time to have some answers , DR Zelenco showed his results from less time than that , i am sure his patients are quite glad he did not wait for official approval .


----------



## ZephyR2

roddy said:


> main national news ,, no mention of serious trials on what may become a game changer .


I wonder if there's a need to keep people focused and intent on following the isolation process. Any hint of a "cure" just round the corner might temp the general populous to stop taking things seriously.


----------



## roddy

ZephyR2 said:


> roddy said:
> 
> 
> 
> main national news ,, no mention of serious trials on what may become a game changer .
> 
> 
> 
> I wonder if there's a need to keep people focused and intent on following the isolation process. Any hint of a "cure" just round the corner might temp the general populous to stop taking things seriously.
Click to expand...

i dont agree that it is the BBC / Sky / MSM responsability to treat the population as idiots or just to push government policy ,, it is supposed to be a news prog ( BBC ) not a propoganda outlet , if they told the truth in a rationed way the panic would never have started and may have got a more responsible reaction from the population.


----------



## John-H

roddy said:


> yes John ,, the dundee one was on the scottish news ,, but for a vaccine and 4 months down the line ,, yes fine but not what is needed now .. one death attributed to ill informed and unsupervised self medication ,, most serious drugs can result in death if unsupervised , but you can not just dismiss something out of hand because of the actions of one fool .. hoarding etc, if a controlled program was in place there would be no need for panic hoarding . it is now more than a week since this discussion started all over the world , ( largely suppressed by MSM ), that is plenty of time to have some answers , DR Zelenco showed his results from less time than that , i am sure his patients are quite glad he did not wait for official approval .


I don't think it is long enough time to have some answers - how long does it take to get better for one thing? His results were not a controlled trial and neither were the French results so they can't use them. It needs to be repeated and as explained you need to do a double blind controlled trial to get valid statistical evidence otherwise it's no better than guesswork or prone to personal bias. When they have the evidence they will use it.

Here's something useful. Did you know that if you started a new job after 28th February you are not eligible for the 80% government pay scheme? So if you had a job then got a new one starting the day after and you had to be furloughed because you were in hospitality or deemed non essential in this crisis - then suddenly you have no income and wished you'd not moved jobs.

People are in tears over this. Please sign this petition to close this loophole. Thanks:

https://www.change.org/p/rishi-sunak-re ... s-loophole


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## roddy

well here is the solution ,, let it be available on request . Dr Zelenco is basing his " results " on whither his patients are still ALIVE,,, from what i remember of the Fox video they all were .. what was it 150 ?? , and if you dont believe him there are others in S Korea , Louisiana France etc etc who are not prepared to sit and let people die . ( because governments have their hands tied by mullti national drug consortiums who have no profit margin in non patent cures )


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## John-H

Roddy it's not up to me but how do you know that the small number in the French trial were not going to improve anyway unless you have a control group to compare to? For Dr Zelenco how do you know his results are not just wishful thinking and again nobody would have died anyway? The truth lies in verification and it will be done - that's the way these things work. Governments have their hands tied by the ethical and scientific standards of the medical authorities they appoint to do the job. They usually act on best advice.


----------



## Iceblue

Australia's Doherty Institute is also about to commence a Chloroquine test covering 2,500 patients who have symptons of Covid that require them to be hospitalised. Funded by three billionares, so it can commence on Monday, and to be run over the next three weeks. The trial will undertake the random allocation of 4 differnt antiviral treatments with Chloroquine being one.


----------



## leopard

There is talk of an imminent breakthrough of treatment which would take effect within 20mins as opposed to vaccination that would take weeks to be effective. It is speculated that treatment could take effect from September onwards.


----------



## bobclive22

*CBS News caught using footage of an* *overwhelmed Italian hospital* in *coronavirus coverage about NYC*

Watch the CBS video, watch at 300 onwards, a young female police officer has the virus she has had no problems and is doing OK, her mother also has the virus and is struggling. Here is the kicker, the police officer takes the *trump wonder drug hydroxychloroquine* for Lupus.






https://www.theblaze.com/news/cbs-news- ... spital-nyc


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## John-H

This is worth reading about capacity in the NHS and what happens when you run it flat out all the time and a pandemic comes along. A friend of mine who has had cancer removed and due to go on chemotherapy because it was "needed" is now told it's cancelled as "non urgent". I'm sure this is because beds are being prioritised for the pandemic as many other operations have been cancelled for the same reason. The consequences are extremely worrying:

https://members.tortoisemedia.com/2020/ ... newsletter


----------



## roddy

John-H said:


> Roddy it's not up to me but how do you know that the small number in the French trial were not going to improve anyway unless you have a control group to compare to? For Dr Zelenco how do you know his results are not just wishful thinking and again nobody would have died anyway? The truth lies in verification and it will be done - that's the way these things work. Governments have their hands tied by the ethical and scientific standards of the medical authorities they appoint to do the job. They usually act on best advice.


it does not matter if they were going to improve anyway , it is the ones that were not going to improve anyway that will that matter ,, i have no way of verrifying DR Zelencos claims but i am presuming that if it was fake he would have been exposed by now, as i recall he treated people who were in a bad way ,,,, how many are going to die while others dither.


----------



## leopard

leopard said:


> There is talk of an imminent breakthrough of treatment which would take effect within 20mins as opposed to vaccination that would take weeks to be effective. It is speculated that treatment could take effect from September onwards.


https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programm ... id-19-cure

(Forgot earlier to put link in)


----------



## bobclive22

John you are not listening, according to Dr Zelenko the elderly are most at risk and need to be treated within the first 3 days on contracting the virus, testing in the US takes 3 days. Out of over 600 patients treated by Dr zelenko not a single one has died.

Watch this interview between President Trumps attorney and Dr Zelenko, all the nuts and bolts explained. The heart rhythm disruption is extremely rare and linked to high dosage, all other side effects are minimal. The drug has been used since 1938 for gods sake, millions have taken it and still are for malaria.


----------



## John-H

roddy said:


> John-H said:
> 
> 
> 
> Roddy it's not up to me but how do you know that the small number in the French trial were not going to improve anyway unless you have a control group to compare to? For Dr Zelenco how do you know his results are not just wishful thinking and again nobody would have died anyway? The truth lies in verification and it will be done - that's the way these things work. Governments have their hands tied by the ethical and scientific standards of the medical authorities they appoint to do the job. They usually act on best advice.
> 
> 
> 
> it does not matter if they were going to improve anyway , it is the ones that were not going to improve anyway that will that matter ,, i have no way of verrifying DR Zelencos claims but i am presuming that if it was fake he would have been exposed by now, as i recall he treated people who were in a bad way ,,,, how many are going to die while others dither.
Click to expand...

Well, you just don't know from the available evidence because other things can explain the outcome.

Look, Bob has just posted an example of a young police woman in New York that is taking hydroxychloroquine for Lupus. Despite that, she got the virus but recovered but passed it onto her mother who isn't doing so well. Bob may see this as proof that hydroxychloroquine has had a beneficial effect but I presume the mother is older than the daughter and we know age has a direct correlation to severity of symptoms so it is not proof at all. It's only one case anyway - but it exemplifies belief getting in the way of proof and how easyy it is to jump to conclusions.

If the effect was blindingly obvious then we wouldn't be having this conversation but imagine the drug does have an effect but it's only small. To tease that proof out of the data would take a large double blind trial and preferably more than one trial. So he might be right but nobody is going to find out until the more extensive trials have completed.

And it's for that reason that this question still hangs - why there are no answers yet and people are still testing. If anything you could perhaps reasonably presume the effect isn't that obvious and if anything is small. Of course if you just _believe_ then you don't need to do any proper testing to satisfy yourself but the authorities don't accept such confidence and quite rightly.


----------



## bobclive22

In an earlier post I gave an indication of my health issues, according the the government, I am *NOT a higher risk person*.
The guidance for the eldery, if you contract Covid, stay inside your home for* 7 days*, do not contact 111. It now appears the success of Dr Zelenko`s treatment is partly due to the timing. This Covid advice reminds me of the expert advice given the the residents of Grenfell tower, *we all know what happened there.*

If you try to contact your surgery and mention covid-19 you get *cut off*, so no advice or treatment there, if you catch this virus in the UK and you are over 65 there is *NO treatment what-so-ever,* if you need a ventilator which you won`t get it`s to late anyway.

Getting access to this *£15 treatment* may save your life (may), if you don`t get access to it you will probably die, as can be seen by the numbers. This I believe is now the *scandal of the century,* the elderly cannot wait for the results from lengthy studies which are often flawed anyway. I posted on the dodgy statin trails where data is hidden and the dodgy RR static is used to inflate the result.
The UK government will *not allow* GP`s to provide prescriptions for hydroxychloroquine if it`s proposed use is for Covid-19.


----------



## bobclive22

> Look, Bob has just posted an example of a young police woman in New York that is taking hydroxychloroquine for Lupus. Despite that, she got the virus but recovered but passed it onto her mother who isn't doing so well.


Are you actually SPANDEX John, there appears NEVER to be a positive in your life.
Advice for you John, always try to turn a negative into a positive.

In the case mentioned above, who has the best prognosis, taking the drug does not mean you can`t catch it, it means you get over it quicker and it will cause you less damage. Do some research, all health workers and carers in India dealing with Covid-19 patients receive hydroxychloroquine.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=578wBFI ... e=youtu.be


----------



## John-H

I think I'm being reasonably rational whereas you are putting faith before proof and accepting anecdotal evidence as conclusive.

If as you claim all the proof is there already without doubt then why is this treatment not approved by any country for national use and by the WHO against this pandemic?

Why do you think they are running trials - are they not busy enough already?


----------



## roddy

bobclive22 said:


> In an earlier post I gave an indication of my health issues, according the the government, I am *NOT a higher risk person*.
> The guidance for the eldery, if you contract Covid, stay inside your home for* 7 days*, do not contact 111. It now appears the success of Dr Zelenko`s treatment is partly due to the timing. This Covid advice reminds me of the expert advice given the the residents of Grenfell tower, *we all know what happened there.*
> 
> If you try to contact your surgery and mention covid-19 you get *cut off*, so no advice or treatment there, if you catch this virus in the UK and you are over 65 there is *NO treatment what-so-ever,* if you need a ventilator which you won`t get it`s to late anyway.
> 
> Getting access to this *£15 treatment* may save your life (may), if you don`t get access to it you will probably die, as can be seen by the numbers. This I believe is now the *scandal of the century,* the elderly cannot wait for the results from lengthy studies which are often flawed anyway. I posted on the dodgy statin trails where data is hidden and the dodgy RR static is used to inflate the result.
> The UK government will *not allow* GP`s to provide prescriptions for hydroxychloroquine if it`s proposed use is for Covid-19.


i suspect the FDA and other organisations are dictating to their embedded governments not to because their is no profit in it for them and protecting vested interest you are right,, it is a scandal ( only one of quite a few from established governments ), i am also in the age group but with no underlying.


----------



## John-H

Sorry Roddy, that was also covered in the video between the two doctors I posted which you said you didn't watch all of. It's a common conspiracy theory. There is actually plenty of profit to be made settling this drug. It's cheap to produce, well known with no regulatory barriers and we would need a huge amount of it. Very profitable. If it works.


----------



## bobclive22

> Sorry Roddy, that was also covered in the video between the two doctors I posted which you said you didn't watch all of. It's a common conspiracy theory. There is actually plenty of profit to be made settling this drug. It's cheap to produce, well known with no regulatory barriers and we would need a huge amount of it. Very profitable. If it works.


*Rubbish*, this is a single pandemic, frighten the public into accepting a far more expensive yearly vaccine for the Corona virus is where the Big bucks will be made. Same as the statin scam, take it for 5 years and gain 1 month if you are lucky, you will probably be unable to walk while taking it though.

One thing is certain, if I am still around after this all dies down I intend to stock up with these drugs just in case there is a next time.


----------



## roddy

John-H said:


> Sorry Roddy, that was also covered in the video between the two doctors I posted which you said you didn't watch all of. It's a common conspiracy theory. There is actually plenty of profit to be made settling this drug. It's cheap to produce, well known with no regulatory barriers and we would need a huge amount of it. Very profitable. If it works.


thanks john ,, well let them get on with it , there are so many unconnected episode now of it being used , what is there to loose ? some side effects , ( eliminated with proper prescription ), none of them are any worse than dying


----------



## roddy

bobclive22 said:


> Sorry Roddy, that was also covered in the video between the two doctors I posted which you said you didn't watch all of. It's a common conspiracy theory. There is actually plenty of profit to be made settling this drug. It's cheap to produce, well known with no regulatory barriers and we would need a huge amount of it. Very profitable. If it works.
> 
> 
> 
> *Rubbish*, this is a single pandemic, frighten the public into accepting a far more expensive yearly vaccine for the Corona virus is where the Big bucks will be made. Same as the statin scam, take it for 5 years and gain 1 month if you are lucky, you will probably be unable to walk while taking it though.
> 
> One thing is certain, if I am still around after this all dies down I intend to stock up with these drugs just in case there is a next time.
Click to expand...

much more likely Bob,, these people are evil


----------



## John-H

Don't buy Bobs conspiracy theories ... come on really :lol:


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## roddy

Bob ,, thing is i dont get , i think most reasonable people nowadays realise it is not any silly conspiracy stuff but know that the FDA has the US gov in its pocket , but how is it that Trump ( of whom i am no fan ) is pushing for this Hydrochlo thing whille they are obv preventing it ,,, what is your take on that ?? is Trump just being strung along on a leash with no real chance of getting it throo .


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## John-H

I think the best thing I heard about Trump recently was a Trump fan on social media annoyed at the criticism Trump was getting over his handling of the Corona virus said, "God gave us Donald Trump!" To which someone replied, "Why? Did he run out of locusts?"


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## roddy

John,,, is Spandex still around ?


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## John-H

Not seen him for ages.


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## roddy

John-H said:


> Not seen him for ages.


did he resign , disappear, get the boot ??


----------



## John-H

No he just vanished like an old oak table. I miss his analytical arguments.


----------



## roddy

John-H said:


> No he just vanished like an old oak table. I miss his analytical arguments.


how long ago ( i have been away a while myself )


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## John-H

Well I'm glad you're back and if you can find Spandex that would be grand


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## FNChaos

There are 7 known human Coronavirus types, 4 of which are quite common. 
(i.e. Alpha Coronaviri HCoV-229E and HcoV-OC43 are known to cause the 'common cold')

After decades of research there are still no vaccines for *any* of them.

It would be great if it were true, but I wouldn't get my hopes up that a simple cocktail of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin is the answer. If it were, I'd think there would be more evidence showing the drug(s) therapeutic benefit against other members of the Coronaviridae family.

This I believe (rather than some FDA conspiracy) is the reason why the use of hydroxychloroquine / azithromycin isn't being pushed.


----------



## Iceblue

Agree that it is not a FDA consiparacy and to think otherwise is not common sense. It is being pushed however, and in some cases obviously being used as shown by Bobs earlier info, with the latest being India's policy where all their medical workers and carers within households are using it as well. There are currently numerous trials underway and others about to commence in several countries which means it is being taken seriously as it does present as one of the only short term solutions before a dedicated cure can be found and trialed.

Have not heard before that just because it is related to the cold virus that it is near impossible to find a cure. Makes sense on the face of it but thought there were a number of teams who were very close


----------



## bobclive22

The BBC did their usual reporting of all the bad news last night. To make a point they did a piece on Lagos Nigeria, it appears lagos will be in lockdown for a few weeks to stop the spread of Covid-19. The BBC didn`t state the number of deaths in their Lagos peice, the reason is there *aren`t any.*

Here are the facts.

The population of Nigeria is *204,800,000*, it has the largest death rate from malaria in the world, the population are mainly *poor*. The capital Lagos is a port city of *1.4 million* people, the majority are *poor* and live in *dense* shanty type accommodation with *poor* sanitary provision. This is *ideal for the spread of Covid-19 *yet only *82* people have been infected in Lagos and only *139* throughout Nigeria, in the whole of Nigeria *2 *deaths have occurred. The government have banned the use of *chloroquine* as it is now only 35% efficient. The problem is that the recommended drug is *far to expensive* for the majority of the population therefor* most still use chloroquine.* It cannot be a coincidence that the 4 countries that have the most deaths from malaria and *mainly use chloroquine* as protection have the *fewest* deaths from Covid-19. *Chloroquine* appears to be the key here, this links nicely to the medication being used by *Dr Zelenko.*

UGANDA population 46,356,000 Corona cases 44 deaths 0
Nigeria population 204,785,000 Corona cases 135 deaths 2
Kenia population 53,460,000 Corona cases 59 deaths 1
Congo Population 89,560,000 Corona cases 109 deaths 8

That`s 11 deaths out of a total of 394,200,000 = *0.00002%* of the population.

https://www.premiumtimesng.com/coronavirus-outbreak


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## roddy

does anybody still believe the BBC / Sky / CNN etc MSM sources ?? John Pilger put out an article recently highlighting ( amongst other things ) the BBC complicity in major gov / establishment frauds , sometimes they are so obvious to be a joke .


----------



## TJS

Your facts are wrong ... decimal place slippage ?

The population of Lagos is 14 million plus compared to greater London of c. 9 million


----------



## roddy

TJS said:


> Your facts are wrong ... decimal place slippage ?
> 
> The population of Lagos is 14 million plus compared to greater London of c. 9 million


that would enforce his argument by a power of ten ?


----------



## John-H

It's quite amusing watching Bob desperately trying to find facts to fit a theory. It's confirmation bias on steriods!



> That`s 11 deaths out of a total of 394,200,000 = 0.00002% of the population.


 :lol: what's that supposed to mean?

Let's do something more useful with your figures.

UGANDA population 46,356,000, Corona cases 44, deaths 0

Death rate 0%

Nigeria population 204,785,000, Corona cases 135 deaths 2

Death rate 1.48%

Kenia population 53,460,000 Corona cases 59 deaths 1

Death rate 1.69%

Congo Population 89,560,000 Corona cases 109 deaths 8

Death rate 7.3%

Those rates are in line with what might be expected: All over the place because he error margin is huge because the number of cases are still very low as the virus hasn't spread far yet possibly because of first contact date and possibly influenced by lots of other factors like temperature. The first reported case in Sub Saharan Africa was Nigeria on 28th February. The UK had cases on 31st January. Africa is a month behind us. You haven't shown any valid statistical connection to chloroquine whatsoever.


----------



## FNChaos

bobclive22 said:


> Here are the facts.
> 
> The population of Nigeria is *204,800,000*, it has the largest death rate from malaria in the world, the population are mainly *poor*. The capital Lagos is a port city of *1.4 million* people, the majority are *poor* and live in *dense* shanty type accommodation with *poor* sanitary provision. This is *ideal for the spread of Covid-19 *yet only *82* people have been infected in Lagos and only *139* throughout Nigeria, in the whole of Nigeria *2 *deaths have occurred. The government have banned the use of *chloroquine* as it is now only 35% efficient. The problem is that the recommended drug is *far to expensive* for the majority of the population therefor* most still use chloroquine.* It cannot be a coincidence that the 4 countries that have the most deaths from malaria and *mainly use chloroquine* as protection have the *fewest* deaths from Covid-19. *Chloroquine* appears to be the key here, this links nicely to the medication being used by *Dr Zelenko.*


Here are the facts:

The elderly are much more likely to die from Covid-19.

_"Covid-19 kills an estimated 13.4% of patients 80 and older, compared to 1.25% of those in their 50s and 0.3% of those in their 40s"_ - Cut from:https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/30/what-explains-coronavirus-lethality-for-elderly/

The median age of people in Nigeria is *18.1 years *
The median age of people in the USA is 38.2 years
The median age of people in the UK is 40.5 years

Or in other words, it may just be there are fewer people living in Nigeria that survive long enough (death through other causes) to reach an age that is most susceptible to death from Covid-19

I would say you could make a stronger causal-effect argument based on population age than you can based on the number of cases of malaria...


----------



## roddy

if i was lying dying i wouldnt care what you all said , i would be asking for the chloro stuff


----------



## John-H

roddy said:


> if i was lying dying i wouldnt care what you all said , i would be asking for the chloro stuff


I understand the thought but wouldn't you rather have a real doctor giving you something with real evidence it worked? Remove the uncertainty - stay at home! That's what I'm doing but I must take the bin out in a bit. I hope the bin folk are taking precautions and can look after themselves.


----------



## bobclive22

> Or in other words, it may just be there are fewer people living in Nigeria that survive long enough (death through other causes) to reach an age that is most susceptible to death from Covid-19 is stark.
> 
> I would say you could make a stronger causal-effect argument based on population age than you can based on the number of cases of malaria...


Your reasoning is screwed, the life expectancy in Africa is low, their health is impaired at a far earlier age. The difference between Spain and Nigeria regarding Covid-19 is stark.

*No need for drug trials they have already been done in real time.**
*
The population of Nigeria is *204,800,000*, it has the largest death rate from malaria in the world, the population is mainly poor. The capital Lagos is a port city of 14.4 million people, the majority are poor and live in dense shanty type accommodation with poor sanitary provision. This is ideal for the spread of Covid-19 yet only* 82 *people have been infected in Lagos and up to 1st April there have been *NO deaths*, there are only *139 confirmed *cases throughout the *whole of Nigeria* and only *2 deaths* have occurred. The government *banned the use of chloroquine in 2006* as it was only 35% efficient. The problem is that the recommended drug is *far to expensive for the majority of the population *therefor* most still use chloroquine.* It cannot be a coincidence that the *4 countries* that have the *most deaths from malaria* and mainly use *chloroquine* as protection for malaria have the *fewest deaths from Covid-19.*

Chloroquine appears to be the *key* here, this links nicely to the medication being used by Dr Zelenko and the French study.

As the first confirmed cases in Spain and Lagos Nigeria *occured about the same time between 25th-26th Feb 2020* you would expect( especially in the densely populated city of Logos ) a *similar level of infection* to have occured up to the present time, that is *not the case *as can be seen below.
The first confirmed case in Nigeria was *26th Feb 2020*

https://punchng.com/breaking-lagos-reco ... n-nigeria/

The first case confirmed in Spain was *25th Feb 2020*

https://112.international/society/spani ... 48920.html

Spanish population *45,700,000* Corona cases *102,136*---- *9,053 Deaths*

Nigeria population *204,785,000* Corona cases *135*---- *2 Deaths*

Lagos population *14,368,332* corona cases *82*----Deaths *0*

Kenya population 53,460,000 Corona cases 59 deaths *1*
Congo Population 89,560,000 Corona cases 109 Deaths *8*
UGANDA population 46,356,000 Corona cases 44 Deaths *0*

*correct as of 1st April 2020.*

https://www.premiumtimesng.com/coronavirus-outbreak.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-sh/lagos


----------



## bobclive22

> Nigeria population 204,785,000, Corona cases 135 deaths 2
> 
> Death rate 1.48%


You have to catch it first John and the population in Nigeria appear to be immune.
The BBC piece was suggesting the virus was spreading in Lagos and the city was to be lockeddown to stop it. Whats the point of a lockdown in Lagos now. The first confirmed case appeared at the same time as in Spain, if the virus was going to spread in Lagos it would surely have done so by now.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-sh/lagos


----------



## John-H

bobclive22 said:


> Nigeria population 204,785,000, Corona cases 135 deaths 2
> 
> Death rate 1.48%
> 
> 
> 
> You have to catch it first John and the population in Nigeria appear to be immune.
> The BBC piece was suggesting the virus was spreading in Lagos and the city was to be lockeddown to stop it. Whats the point of a lockdown in Lagos now. The first confirmed case appeared at the same time as in Spain, if the virus was going to spread in Lagos it would surely have done so by now.
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-sh/lagos
Click to expand...

No they don't appear to be immune Bob it's just that your belief in a theory in the absence of any valid data whatsoever appears to be key here. You can't compare Lagos to the whole of Spain. Spain's first case was 5th March and Nigeria (of which Lagos is a small part) had its first case a month later. The numbers are too early to rely on. :roll:


----------



## John-H

Every evening this week ministers have faced the same question at the daily Coronavirus press conference: Why are we not testing enough people? Every evening we have watched ministers squirm, dive and mislead as they do everything they can to avoid answering this question.

The reason for their bluster has now become obvious: the Government is desperate to avoid having to admit it may have made a terrible mistake.

There are explanations in the Times here and the Buzzfeed here about how Boris Johnson and his advisers may have got it so wrong.

While the World Health Organisation was instructing every country to "test, test, test" our Government was trying to mitigate the outbreak through herd immunity.

On March 13 it announced it was abandoning mass testing only to change its mind three days later when academic forecasts showed hundreds of thousands of lives were at risk.

The Government's strategy then switched from mitigation to suppression but this approach requires mass testing. It is only through testing that we can tell if NHS and other front-line workers are fit to work and it is only through testing that you can monitor the spread of the virus and without testing the government will not be able to judge when to lift the lock-down restrictions.

While Germany is testing around 70,000 people a day, the UK has yet to carry out 10,000 a day and is unlikely to reach the Government's target of 25,000 a day until the middle of this month.

You can't blame hindsight here. In 2016 the government knew the NHS was unprepared for a pandemic following the Cygnus exercise *here* which warned the NHS had no spare capacity and lack of ventilators. The Government could also have ordered sufficient supplies of testing kits and other equipment such as ventilators in late January when the potential of the outbreak spreading from China to become a pandemic was being discussed. Memo's have come to light showing that the UK government was in discussion with the EU regarding its Covid-19 procurement scheme then, which it later declined to join, subsequently favouring placing orders with untried suppliers instead - also exposing as a lie the more recent comment that the UK government didn't see the EU's email about the procurement scheme.

It didn't take action because it instead decided its strategy was for herd immunity and reasons of politics but then changed its mind.

At yesterday's press conference Michael Gove put the blame for the current testing difficulty to sourcing chemical reagents - a claim questioned by many in the industry.

There is now the problem of not just the mistake but that their refusal to be candid with the public about the situation undermines public trust in the Government and people will be less willing to follow official advice if they feel the government are not being straight with them.

(Credited, edited and amended from the Daily Mirror)

This might be useful - a UK graph tracking the "Cases", "Hospitalisations" and "Deaths" trend since 21st March when there was some stability in the numbers. What we hope is that social distancing measures will kick in and "flatten out the curve" or in this case as it's on a log scale, will reduce the gradient slope. Horizontal means a complete stop to the spread of the virus. I'll try and keep it updated:










Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/


----------



## FNChaos

bobclive22 said:


> Your reasoning is screwed, the life expectancy in Africa is low, their health is impaired at a far earlier age. The difference between Spain and Nigeria regarding Covid-19 is stark.
> 
> *No need for drug trials they have already been done in real time.**
> *


Occam's razor

"A philosophical razor is a tool used to eliminate improbable options in a given situation" Occam's razor can be summarized as follows:
_Among competing hypotheses, the one with the fewest assumptions should be selected"_

So we can either believe that our governments are willfully ignoring a simple solution that could prevent countless deaths, willingly destroying our economies in the process because of a secret $$$ pact between 'Deep State' actors and Big Pharma and a conspiratorial cover-up by major news media in the US and UK (and all of this without a leak :roll: )

or

the science backing the Nigerian claim just isn't there.


----------



## roddy

John-H said:


> roddy said:
> 
> 
> 
> if i was lying dying i wouldnt care what you all said , i would be asking for the chloro stuff
> 
> 
> 
> I understand the thought but wouldn't you rather have a real doctor giving you something with real evidence it worked? Remove the uncertainty - stay at home! That's what I'm doing but I must take the bin out in a bit. I hope the bin folk are taking precautions and can look after themselves.
Click to expand...

pardon ,, there is no " real " doctor giving anything , proven or not ,, they are leaving me to die , i would rather have something which there is evidence of saving people , to me thats simple


----------



## roddy

why ??????? since the gov has apparently got everything wrong ( no surprise there ) why do they not just take the chance , give out Dr Zelencos ( and others ) chloro thing , they might just seize victory from the current jaws of defeat ,w ith nothing to loose and everything to win ,,,, or is there a deeper more sinister reason why they cant / wont . chances are they could win a whole generation of voters . it really is a scandal that there maybe a solution out there which every educated country / person is talking about and they wont give it a chance .. that in itsself should not be forgotten.


----------



## John-H

For ethical considerations and there is no evidence yet.


----------



## roddy

FNChaos said:


> bobclive22 said:
> 
> 
> 
> Your reasoning is screwed, the life expectancy in Africa is low, their health is impaired at a far earlier age. The difference between Spain and Nigeria regarding Covid-19 is stark.
> 
> *No need for drug trials they have already been done in real time.**
> *
> 
> 
> 
> Occam's razor
> 
> "A philosophical razor is a tool used to eliminate improbable options in a given situation" Occam's razor can be summarized as follows:
> _Among competing hypotheses, the one with the fewest assumptions should be selected"_
> 
> So we can either believe that our governments are willfully ignoring a simple solution that could prevent countless deaths, willingly destroying our economies in the process because of a secret $$$ pact between 'Deep State' actors and Big Pharma and a conspiratorial cover-up by major news media in the US and UK (and all of this without a leak :roll: )
> 
> or
> 
> the science backing the Nigerian claim just isn't there.
Click to expand...

i dont know about this science stuff , science has done nothing so far and does expect to do anything for at least 4 months some say over a year , Bob gives actual figures,, that would do for me if i was either serious in a bed or in the at risk group. the time for dithering is , sadly for some , over .


----------



## roddy

John-H said:


> For ethical considerations and there is no evidence yet.


how " ethical " is it to let thousands of people die without trying everything possible . it would appear that the evidence is there , ask China , S Korea , India , France , NY , Louisiana , (and Bob , he has plenty of figures and examples )


----------



## John-H

Very ethical if you might do more harm than good.

We generally trust experts to do jobs we can't do or judge ourselves - like doctors, dentists, scientists, engineers, electricians, plumbers etc. Generally when we have a problem we go to an expert in the field to get it sorted. We can have a guess or a go ourselves...... but as a ley person with little understanding of the subject we are likely to get it wrong don't you think?

Of course you could take a personal choice - but it would be wrong to inflict that decision on others don't you think?


----------



## roddy

no i dont ,, if all the " experts " are standing around scratching their heads and not getting the job done i would turn to someone who is already doing it and tell him to get on with it ,,, the alternative for thousands of people is DEATH ,, that is not much of a bargaining position ..


----------



## roddy

dont forget John , i speak from a position of someone who brother disregarded the " experts " advice and survived cancer , from which they were given 6 months to live , and lived for 16 years , and a sister who is currently amazing her specialist , 4 years now , refusing chemo and self medicating ( basically diet ) and whose clinician tells her " fantastic, just keep doing what you are doing ", and she is in very good health . so " expert evidence " is not a term which fills me with awe . let the people live .


----------



## John-H

Well I can understand that your personal experience and your own admission that you don't get science may lead you to a different conclusion than the doctors and medical authorities but then, if you'll forgive me and please see this in a logical scientific sense and in no way a personal remark, I'm glad you are not in charge of the medical care of others or yourself. Having said that, I'm sure your intentions would be the very best.


----------



## roddy

John-H said:


> Well I can understand that your personal experience and your own admission that you don't get science may lead you to a different conclusion than the doctors and medical authorities but then, if you'll forgive me and please see this in a logical scientific sense and in no way a personal remark, I'm glad you are not in charge of the medical care of others or yourself. Having said that, I'm sure your intentions would be the very best.


well if i was john i doubt there could not be anymore dead but maybe ( and i guess a maybe is quite a lot to someone who is on their last legs ) whole lot more alive , it would certainly be interesting , although obv impossible , to get the opinions of those who have died waiting for the " experts " to hep them


----------



## FNChaos

roddy said:


> i dont know about this science stuff , science has done nothing so far and does expect to do anything for at least 4 months some say over a year , Bob gives actual figures,, that would do for me if i was either serious in a bed or in the at risk group. the time for dithering is , sadly for some , over .


Here is a synopsis of the WHO "Solidarity" global drug trial worth reading:
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...al-four-most-promising-coronavirus-treatments

Note, the information on Chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine look less promising than some of the other options (and more risky) Quote: _"Researchers have tried this drug on virus after virus, and it never works out in humans. The dose needed is just too high,"_

Also note, the source provided is a peer-reviewed academic journal of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) and one of the world's top academic journals. Contrast that with some of Bob's more 'questionable' sites used in this thread (i.e 112.International - Ukranian / Russian or punchNG - Nigerian sourced...)


----------



## roddy

may just be of some interest .
on another forum which i wile away some time on currently a person posted about his 75 yo neighbour, just died, his daughter in isolation , his this and that and his sister in law with underlying on her last legs , not to be resusitated, so i prompted the question would she be gratefull for or accept the hydrochlo thing,,,, yes was the resounding answere . i dont think i need to ask how many more would make that choice .


----------



## roddy

FNChaos said:


> roddy said:
> 
> 
> 
> i dont know about this science stuff , science has done nothing so far and does expect to do anything for at least 4 months some say over a year , Bob gives actual figures,, that would do for me if i was either serious in a bed or in the at risk group. the time for dithering is , sadly for some , over .
> 
> 
> 
> Here is a synopsis of the WHO "Solidarity" global drug trial worth reading:
> https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...al-four-most-promising-coronavirus-treatments
> 
> Note, the information on Chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine look less promising than some of the other options (and more risky) Quote: _"Researchers have tried this drug on virus after virus, and it never works out in humans. The dose needed is just too high,"_
> 
> Also note, the source provided is a peer-reviewed academic journal of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) and one of the world's top academic journals. Contrast that with some of Bob's more 'questionable' sites used in this thread (i.e 112.International - Ukranian / Russian or punchNG - Nigerian sourced...)
Click to expand...

it has been getting used daily for years all around the world as anti malarial !!


----------



## FNChaos

roddy said:


> FNChaos said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> roddy said:
> 
> 
> 
> i dont know about this science stuff , science has done nothing so far and does expect to do anything for at least 4 months some say over a year , Bob gives actual figures,, that would do for me if i was either serious in a bed or in the at risk group. the time for dithering is , sadly for some , over .
> 
> 
> 
> Here is a synopsis of the WHO "Solidarity" global drug trial worth reading:
> https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...al-four-most-promising-coronavirus-treatments
> 
> Note, the information on Chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine look less promising than some of the other options (and more risky) Quote: _"Researchers have tried this drug on virus after virus, and it never works out in humans. The dose needed is just too high,"_
> 
> Also note, the source provided is a peer-reviewed academic journal of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) and one of the world's top academic journals. Contrast that with some of Bob's more 'questionable' sites used in this thread (i.e 112.International - Ukranian / Russian or punchNG - Nigerian sourced...)
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> *it has been getting used daily for years all around the world as anti malarial !!*
Click to expand...

Malaria is caused by a parasite not a virus.
Totally different type of threat.


----------



## FNChaos

roddy said:


> may just be of some interest .
> on another forum which i wile away some time on currently a person posted about his 75 yo neighbour, just died, his daughter in isolation , his this and that and his sister in law with underlying on her last legs , not to be resusitated, so i prompted the question would she be gratefull for or accept the hydrochlo thing,,,, yes was the resounding answere . i dont think i need to ask how many more would make that choice .


FWIW

I've spent the last 33 years of my carrier installing, calibrating and repairing medical imaging equipment (MRI's, CT's, Vasc / Cath labs, etc) At one time or another I have been in all of the major hospitals in Western Washington, Alaska, Hawaii and most of California.

One of my closest sites, Providence Everett admitted the first known Covid-19 patient in the US. 
Evergreen Kirkland (another hospital I frequent) experienced the first US death. 
In fact, I have several sites within walking distance to the Kirkland LifeCare Center (where it all started over here).

Now I'm not claiming to be any kind of expert in medicine but I am considered "essential personal". Unlike the majority of people who've been asked to stay home, I am expected to go into known 'hot zones' daily.

Due to the shortage of protective equipment (i.e. N95 masks, 'bunnysuits', etc), PPE is reserved for staff members that come into direct patient contact. The rest of us just have to be careful. :?

Over the years, I've seen more dying people than I care to think about. No doubt many of them were willing to try anything if they though it would buy them time... I honestly hope that a treatment like Chloroquine will prove to be successful, but from my vantage point I am not that optimistic.


----------



## LVS

Sound is not great in this video clip, I suspect that an official video will be posted soon. This was the second part of an interview with an infectious disease expert in USA.






The previous segment, not yet posted online, he explains that most of his patients are Diabetic or pre-diabetic and are obese or morbidly obese.

Essentially his treatments and results track well with the French results, none of his patients needed intubation after 4-5 days of hydroxychloroquine

FYI; Doctors over here are self-treating with the drug to prevent them from becoming infected. An anti-body test is available in USA and Dr. Brix wants testing of front-line personnel as soon as possible. I suspect that will happen before the end of the week and that could change the numbers dramatically if they find that people have had the disease in the past, recovered and now have antibodies.


----------



## bobclive22

If my theory is correct and there is hope or it is just clutching at straws the theory could be tested.
There are *2* groups of patients in the UK and around the world that take *hydroxychloroquine* on a regular basis, they are suffers of * Rheumatoid arthritis* and *Lupus*, both are autoimmune disorders. Those two groups according to my theory should have a certain level of immunity to Covid-19 similar to the populations of Africa. I have no way of knowing how many of that group have died of the virus, if any. This group are supposedly in high risk regarding virus, but hydroxychloroquine may help kill the virus before any lung damage occurs, then maybe not, who knows.



> In the UK, Robin May, Professor of Infectious Disease at the University of Birmingham, explained that there is a scientific rationale for the use of hydroxychloroquine in the treatment of COVID-19, based on its mode of action in malaria.


https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/2020031 ... e-answer#1


----------



## roddy

LVS said:


> Sound is not great in this video clip, I suspect that an official video will be posted soon. This was the second part of an interview with an infectious disease expert in USA.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The previous segment, not yet posted online, he explains that most of his patients are Diabetic or pre-diabetic and are obese or morbidly obese.
> 
> Essentially his treatments and results track well with the French results, none of his patients needed intubation after 4-5 days of hydroxychloroquine
> 
> FYI; Doctors over here are self-treating with the drug to prevent them from becoming infected. An anti-body test is available in USA and Dr. Brix wants testing of front-line personnel as soon as possible. I suspect that will happen before the end of the week and that could change the numbers dramatically if they find that people have had the disease in the past, recovered and now have antibodies.


the sooner the better ,,,btw , where is " over here " ?


----------



## roddy

John-H said:


> Well I can understand that your personal experience and your own admission that you don't get science may lead you to a different conclusion than the doctors and medical authorities but then, if you'll forgive me and please see this in a logical scientific sense and in no way a personal remark, I'm glad you are not in charge of the medical care of others or yourself. Having said that, I'm sure your intentions would be the very best.


not quite sure why you miss quote me and misconstrue my meaning , deliberatly or not , ( not very becoming of you ) ,, and i am sure that any seriously ill or worse person would rather that i give them something which seems to be working in other places rather than have the likes of your self let them die because of some "evidence " issue .


----------



## bobclive22

*Experts Still Puzzled At Why So FEW Coronavirus Cases In Africa* *Mar 11, 2020*

We are now at *Aril 2nd* and nothing has changed, *still no deaths in Lagos*.



> Experts still don't know why so few cases of the new coronavirus have been reported in Africa, despite China - where the virus originated - b*eing the continent's top trading partner *and the continent having a population of 1.3 billion people.





> "It will always be possible to miss cases and that's always been admitted in the UK," says Mark Woolhouse at the University of Edinburgh, UK. But given heightened awareness in Africa, the lack of coronavirus-linked deaths on the continent implies there aren't yet big undetected outbreaks, he says. "If there were major outbreaks, of the scale that Italy or Iran have had, anywhere in Africa, I would expect those deaths to be well above the radar by now."


These experts won`t even mention Chloroquine.

https://iharare.com/experts-still-puzzl ... in-africa/

Here we go, but not in the UK.

Bahrain and Belgium report their hospitals are successfully treating coronavirus patients with the anti-malaria drug hydroxychloroquine touted by President Trump as a possible breakthrough in the pandemic.



> The Kingdom of Bahrain's Supreme Council of Health chairman said his country was among the first to use the drug and that its impact has been "profound," according to the Bahrain News Agency.


https://wentworthreport.com/2020/03/27/ ... -patients/

If President Trump is for the Press are against it even in the UK.


----------



## John-H

roddy said:


> John-H said:
> 
> 
> 
> Well I can understand that your personal experience and your own admission that you don't get science may lead you to a different conclusion than the doctors and medical authorities but then, if you'll forgive me and please see this in a logical scientific sense and in no way a personal remark, I'm glad you are not in charge of the medical care of others or yourself. Having said that, I'm sure your intentions would be the very best.
> 
> 
> 
> not quite sure why you miss quote me and misconstrue my meaning , deliberatly or not , ( not very becoming of you ) ,, and i am sure that any seriously ill or worse person would rather that i give them something which seems to be working in other places rather than have the likes of your self let them die because of some "evidence " issue .
Click to expand...

I was trying to put it kindly and simply but I think also there is some confusion here. You said,


roddy said:


> i dont know about this science stuff


 and then went on to dismiss the validity of taking the time to gather evidence and validating treatment before administering treatment.

You are therefore advocating the taking an unproven treatment and risking the patient.

Ethically, the risk of the drug needs to be offset against the risk of the virus at the stage the disease is at.

Without proof that the drug prevents the more serious later stages of the disease and considering the drug itself has risk it can't be justified ethically to be given to early stage patients with a cough.

The drug is ethically allowed on your death bed example where the patient is likely to die from the virus anyway (this was explained in the video I gave you which you didn't watch all of) as clearly the relative risk from the drug in the final stages of the disease is less. It's Ok to experiment then to put it simply. But that's not what's being advocated by Bob and his YouTube doctor - they are talking about taking the drug *before* you have developed serious complications. It's that situation which has no approval and there is insufficient evidence for medical authorities to give national approval for use. You are conflating the different situations.

Please watch the video to appreciate the situation:

*"The anti-malarial drug chloroquine can be administered in France to patients suffering from the severest forms of the coronavirus but only under strict supervision."

"The high council recommends not to use this treatment&#8230; with the exception of grave cases, hospitalized, on the basis of a decision taken by doctors and under strict surveillance."
*
https://techstartups.com/2020/03/28/bre ... -patients/

The reasons are discussed by a French and a British Doctor interviewed in the video at the bottom of the article. Please take the time to watch all of it for a full understanding.


----------



## bobclive22

*Australian doctors warned off after prescribing potentially deadly Covid-19 trial drug to themselves
*

This is a normal Guardian misinformation piece, they couldn`t produce honest journalism if they tried.



> Australia's drugs regulator has been forced to restrict powers to prescribe a drug undergoing clinical trials to treat Covid-19, because doctors have been inappropriately prescribing it to themselves and their family members despite its *potentially deadly side-effects*.
> 
> The anti-malarial drug hydroxychloroquine and the similar compound chloroquine are currently used mostly for patients with autoimmune diseases such as rheumatoid arthritis, but stocks in Australia have been diminished thanks to global publicity - including from Donald Trump - about the potential of the drug to treat Covid-19.
> 
> Hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine have potentially severe and even deadly side effects if used inappropriately, including heart failure and toxicity.


*What deadly side effects*

Guardian say, severe and even deadly side effects *if used inappropriately,* *repeat if used inappropriately,*

It`s being prescribed by a doctor, you can`t get it any other way, how dare they print such crap.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... themselves


----------



## John-H

My raised eyebrows have exceeded even Roger Moore's most extreme facial dexterity 

It's worth reading the UK Guardian article in full to see the effect of hype and misinformation:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.thegua ... themselves

There's also a link to poisoning incidents in Lagos following Trump's I'll informed comments about the drug:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... aised-drug

Anyway.......


----------



## Iceblue

Bob I wouldn't worry about the Guardian in Australia, they are a known left wing publication that has spent the last two months attacking the governments balanced policy of dealing with the crisis with results to date showing a week old flattening of the curve from 25% to 7% growth. Two weeks ago they predicted 150,000 deaths in Australia. We have 21 with a .4% death rate, average age 78 with one in his 60's who had pre-existing conditions. 25% of our deaths and infections came from one cruise ship.

Like most left wing media where center right governments are in power, their contributions to date, in circumstances where the whole world was caught off guard by China's inappropriate actions to create, advise and contain the virus has been,
1. Question, undermine and blurr any government decision and messaging and find both qualified and unqualified people to dispute the countries best medical advice.
2. Promote opposition parties criticisms of economic policy responses
3. Like climate change, present worst case scenarios as probable outcomes and then ask why the government does not have enough medical supplies to deal with the situation
4. Downplay and over emphasize any risks associated with a short term solution such as Chloroquine

John take note. The outcome of this is to create and exacerbate fear and confusion at a time when this is least required unless of course you had Jeremy Corbin running the show :lol: .


----------



## roddy

John-H said:


> roddy said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> John-H said:
> 
> 
> 
> Well I can understand that your personal experience and your own admission that you don't get science may lead you to a different conclusion than the doctors and medical authorities but then, if you'll forgive me and please see this in a logical scientific sense and in no way a personal remark, I'm glad you are not in charge of the medical care of others or yourself. Having said that, I'm sure your intentions would be the very best.
> 
> 
> 
> not quite sure why you miss quote me and misconstrue my meaning , deliberatly or not , ( not very becoming of you ) ,, and i am sure that any seriously ill or worse person would rather that i give them something which seems to be working in other places rather than have the likes of your self let them die because of some "evidence " issue .
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> I was trying to put it kindly and simply but I think also there is some confusion here. You said,
> 
> 
> roddy said:
> 
> 
> 
> i dont know about this science stuff
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> and then went on to dismiss the validity of taking the time to gather evidence and validating treatment before administering treatment.
> 
> You are therefore advocating the taking an unproven treatment and risking the patient.
> 
> Ethically, the risk of the drug needs to be offset against the risk of the virus at the stage the disease is at.
> 
> Without proof that the drug prevents the more serious later stages of the disease and considering the drug itself has risk it can't be justified ethically to be given to early stage patients with a cough.
> 
> The drug is ethically allowed on your death bed example where the patient is likely to die from the virus anyway (this was explained in the video I gave you which you didn't watch all of) as clearly the relative risk from the drug in the final stages of the disease is less. It's Ok to experiment then to put it simply. But that's not what's being advocated by Bob and his YouTube doctor - they are talking about taking the drug *before* you have developed serious complications. It's that situation which has no approval and there is insufficient evidence for medical authorities to give national approval for use. You are conflating the different situations.
> 
> Please watch the video to appreciate the situation:
> 
> *"The anti-malarial drug chloroquine can be administered in France to patients suffering from the severest forms of the coronavirus but only under strict supervision."
> 
> "The high council recommends not to use this treatment&#8230; with the exception of grave cases, hospitalized, on the basis of a decision taken by doctors and under strict surveillance."
> *
> https://techstartups.com/2020/03/28/bre ... -patients/
> 
> The reasons are discussed by a French and a British Doctor interviewed in the video at the bottom of the article. Please take the time to watch all of it for a full understanding.
Click to expand...

when i say i dont know about this science stuff, i mean i do not agree with the waiting game ,please take my statement in context to the point in discussion , ie , waiting for " evidence " , not misconstrue it ,, i have not been advocating its use as a preventative ,i will leave that to others who have their finger on the pulse much more than i have , like the doctors in India , France Australia , Bob ( for his revelations ) et all , my issue all along has been to give it to the peolpe who are being left to die , who are being sent home and refused treatment because they are being treated as lost causes, then if a trend emerges , it only takes a few days for improvements to show , then it could be used further ,, dont try to confuse . i see at least you are starting to accept that not giving it to " lost causes" is ethically and morally inexcuseable , i suppose that is a start ,, let Bob chip away and perhaps he can shed more light on further hopefully successful progress with this , or any other , treatment .


----------



## LVS

Better sound quality on this video which contains both sections

https://video.foxnews.com/v/6146455701001#sp=show-clips

Listen carefully at the very end, the testing that has been done by this guy in USA matches and confirms the French data.


----------



## bobclive22

> If the virus is so bad, why are European death rates down?


By April 2, 2020

This is an interesting read, via *Guido Fawkes*.



> We might also note that the UK government appears, oddly, to agree with this mortality rate since, despite the extraordinarily costly, illiberal and harmful lengths it has gone to in its efforts to suppress Covid-19, it has just removed it from the official list of High Consequence Infectious Diseases (HCID), stating that mortality rates are '*low overall*'.





> But Prof Ricciardi added that Italy's death rate may also appear high because of how doctors record fatalities.
> 
> "The way in which we code deaths in our country is very generous in the sense that all the people who die in hospitals with the coronavirus *are deemed to be dying of the coronavirus*.


https://conservativewoman.co.uk/if-the- ... ates-down/

*Only 12% of Italy's patients reported as dying from Cov-19 died from it directly*

https://www.independentsentinel.com/onl ... -directly/

Here is another, I stated at the start that Italy was an outlier.

https://forum.facmedicine.com/threads/w ... aly.48222/

https://web.archive.org/web/20200325020 ... erm=031720



> Over the last few days, new data have emerged to support this. Here is what we know so far and a lens through which the data should be viewed. A few key factors first regarding Italy's demographics.
> Italy has the *second oldest population in the world*, after Japan. People over the age of 65 make up a whopping *24%* of their population.
> Italy has the unpleasant distinction of* leading Europe in deaths related to antibiotic-resistant infections.* This directly impacts doctors abilities to effectively treat pneumonia in many elderly patients.
> *Italians smoke, nearly 24% of the population.* A factor known to aggravate symptoms in those testing positive for COVID19


https://medium.com/beingwell/new-data-e ... 60b94c6bf6


----------



## roddy

lots of stuff coming together ,, people are dying while " experts " ,
scientists , governments and apologists dither and moralise about ethics etc .


----------



## roddy

Malaria is caused by a parasite not a virus.
Totally different type of threat.[/quote][/quote]

i am surprised that as some sort of medical type that you are unaware of , or choose to dismiss , the research which is going on and the apparent connection.


----------



## bobclive22

> The reasons are discussed by a French and a British Doctor interviewed in the video at the bottom of the article. Please take the time to watch all of it for a full understanding.


https://techstartups.com/2020/03/28/bre ... -patients/

John, every time you have a medical procedure you Have to sign a consent form, every time you participate in a medical study you sign a consent form, The arguments put forward by these two doctors don`t hold water.

This is an old drug used by millions and it`s safety profile is well understood, I smell drug company lobbying here.


----------



## bobclive22

> Malaria is caused by a parasite not a virus.
> Totally different type of threat.





> In a recent publication (Gao et al., 2020), Gao and colleagues indicate that, "according to the news briefing", "results from more than 100 patients have demonstrated that chloroquine phosphate is superior to the control treatment in inhibiting the exacerbation of pneumonia, improving lung imaging findings, promoting a virus negative conversion, and shortening the disease course".
> 
> This would represent the first successful use of chloroquine in humans for the treatment of an acute viral disease, and is undoubtedly excellent news, since this drug is cheap and widely available. However, it should be considered carefully before drawing definitive conclusions, since no data has been provided yet to support this announcement.


It works and has not killed anyone.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... 4220301145


----------



## FNChaos

bobclive22 said:


> Malaria is caused by a parasite not a virus.
> Totally different type of threat.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> In a recent publication (Gao et al., 2020), Gao and colleagues indicate that, "according to the news briefing", "results from more than 100 patients have demonstrated that chloroquine phosphate is superior to the control treatment in inhibiting the exacerbation of pneumonia, improving lung imaging findings, promoting a virus negative conversion, and shortening the disease course".
> 
> This would represent the first successful use of chloroquine in humans for the treatment of an acute viral disease, and is undoubtedly excellent news, since this drug is cheap and widely available. However, it should be considered carefully before drawing definitive conclusions, since no data has been provided yet to support this announcement.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> It works and has not killed anyone.
> 
> https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... 4220301145
Click to expand...

That's what you got out of the article? :lol: :lol: :lol:

I read:

_..."However, it should be considered carefully before drawing definitive conclusions, since no data has been provided yet to support this announcement". _

_"Of note, chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine are considered to be safe and side-effects are generally mild and transitory. However, the margin between the therapeutic and toxic dose is narrow and chloroquine poisoning has been associated with cardiovascular disorders that can be life-threatening"_

_ "chloroquine did not prevent influenza infection in a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trial"_

_"had no effect on dengue-infecteds patient in a randomized controlled trial"_

_"The case of chikungunya virus &#8230; was shown to enhance alphavirus replication in various animal models"_ (in other words, made things worse)

_"In a nonhuman primate model of CHIKV infection, chloroquine treatment was shown to exacerbate acute fever and delay the cellular immune response"_ (in other words, made things worse)

_"Its use in the treatment of HIV-infected patients has been considered inconclusive"_

_*"Altogether, the assessment of previous trials indicates that, to date, no acute virus infection has been successfully treated by chloroquine in humans"*_.


----------



## roddy

well all those indian front line practitioners, the chinese , the SKoreans , French , the patients in NY and Louisiana etc etc etc had better look out ,,maybe they would be better of certain dead !!


----------



## John-H

roddy said:


> ...
> when i say i dont know about this science stuff, i mean i do not agree with the waiting game ,please take my statement in context to the point in discussion , ie , waiting for " evidence " , not misconstrue it ,, i have not been advocating its use as a preventative ,


Well sorry, in that case we have misunderstood each other. I thought you were supporting Bob who is advocating the use of the drug when symptoms first indicate or as a preventative and who says that it is of no use in the final stages of the disease.

I've already pointed out that In the final stages of the disease there is permission to administer the drug because the ethical considerations allow it.

What I was saying is needed is evidence that it works as a preventative or in the early stages in order for it to be allowed for national use in those circumstances. It's all explained in that video - have you watched it?



roddy said:


> ... my issue all along has been to give it to the peolpe who are being left to die , who are being sent home and refused treatment because they are being treated as lost causes,...


Nobody is being sent home as a lost cause and left to die. They are placed in isolation to stop the spread of the disease and treated. In those conditions they may receive experimental treatments - it's allowed.



roddy said:


> ,, dont try to confuse . i see at least you are starting to accept that not giving it to " lost causes" is ethically and morally inexcuseable , ...


If you have followed what I've said (and watched the video!) you would appreciate that I have explained that all along. Several pages back I quoted:

*"The anti-malarial drug chloroquine can be administered in France to patients suffering from the severest forms of the coronavirus but only under strict supervision."

"The high council recommends not to use this treatment&#8230; with the exception of grave cases, hospitalized, on the basis of a decision taken by doctors and under strict surveillance."
*
https://techstartups.com/2020/03/28/bre ... -patients/


----------



## John-H

bobclive22 said:


> If the virus is so bad, why are European death rates down?
Click to expand...

How about everyone is in lock down and not able to drive around and crash into each other, pollution is down, everyone is safe at home :roll:


----------



## John-H

bobclive22 said:


> The reasons are discussed by a French and a British Doctor interviewed in the video at the bottom of the article. Please take the time to watch all of it for a full understanding.
> 
> 
> 
> https://techstartups.com/2020/03/28/bre ... -patients/
> 
> John, every time you have a medical procedure you Have to sign a consent form, every time you participate in a medical study you sign a consent form, The arguments put forward by these two doctors don`t hold water.
> 
> This is an old drug used by millions and it`s safety profile is well understood, I smell drug company lobbying here.
Click to expand...

Conspiracy theories again hey Bob? You would need more than individual consent to run a mass trial. Trials need to be approved and you would certainly need approval for mass administration.

If you had watched and followed what was being said in the video you should appreciate that the drug can't be approved for national use in the early stages as you are advocating because there is not enough evidence to justify its use in these circumstances when weighed against the known risks of using the drug. You should also appreciate that making this drug in bulk for preventative or early stage mass administration would be very profitable for drug companies precisely because it has already been through much of the approval process for other uses and is very cheap to manufacture so the profit margins are high. This all depends on it being proved beneficial following the trials being undertaken of course.


----------



## John-H

bobclive22 said:


> Malaria is caused by a parasite not a virus.
> Totally different type of threat.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> In a recent publication (Gao et al., 2020), Gao and colleagues indicate that, "according to the news briefing", "results from more than 100 patients have demonstrated that chloroquine phosphate is superior to the control treatment in inhibiting the exacerbation of pneumonia, improving lung imaging findings, promoting a virus negative conversion, and shortening the disease course".
> 
> This would represent the first successful use of chloroquine in humans for the treatment of an acute viral disease, and is undoubtedly excellent news, since this drug is cheap and widely available. However, it should be considered carefully before drawing definitive conclusions, since no data has been provided yet to support this announcement.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> It works and has not killed anyone.
> 
> https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... 4220301145
Click to expand...

There is not enough evidence that it works yet and it _has_ killed people.

You even started to quote the rider,

*"However, it should be considered carefully before drawing definitive conclusions, since no data has been provided yet to support this announcement."*

When I read the paper I noticed it said *"100 patients have demonstrated that chloroquine phosphate is superior to the control treatment"* and my first thought was - what was the control treatment? Nothing? It was explained partly to be the case later:

*Results were produced in ten different hospitals and possibly from a number of different clinical protocols among those listed above, which include various designs for control groups (none, different antivirals, placebo, etc.) and various outcome primary indicators. The final interpretation is therefore technically demanding, and in the absence of published data, it is difficult to reach any firm conclusion.*

There was no mention of the dosage. The evidence is not good enough as it stands for mass application as you are advocating as it is not without known side effects.

You may be interested to know that there was an in depth article on BBC R4 The World Tonight exploring the use of hydroxychloroquine and other experimental drugs amid allegations that doctors were being prevented from using medicine allowed to be used in other countries. It was explained that the current UK treatment is paracetamol and oxygen and it was alleged the UK was unable to use other drugs until we had run our own trial. 29 clinitians wrote to the CMO saying they had already used targeted cytokine inhibition treatments on a number of patients. A spokesman for the Department of Health and Social care expressed the importance of trials but said that *clinicians may prescribe an unlicensed medicine outside of trial where they consider that benefits may outweigh the risks of using that medicine*.


----------



## John-H

Here's an update of the official data plotted on a log scale since 21st March when the numbers were more steady. This is just to gain a perspective and is is simply a re-presentation of available data.

You can see that the previous best fit line (double every four days) retained for confirmed COVID-19 "cases", which projects to 80% of the population by May 13th (about six weeks), is starting to show a slight leveling off and may now be closer to doubling every five days. It will of course flatten off well before 80% of population is reached because there are less people to infect but we need it to flatten off a lot quicker in order not to overload the NHS.

Hospital admission is also down but data points are missing as the information is hard to find. The latest point was from tonight's government briefing.

More concerning is the death rate with is running at 22.6% of hospital admissions and on a steady double every 3.4 days incline. At that rate we could have 10,000 deaths by this time next week and 20,000 four days later. Reporting in the media following government briefing that the rate is "steady" is somewhat misleading - plotted on a log scale it looks steady but is still an exponential rise. Hopefully current efforts will flatten this trajectory - it needs to become horizontal (zero new deaths).

Only 8.7% of confirmed cases result in death and given that the number of real infections is likely far higher because of the lack of testing in the population this is no doubt an exaggerated figure.









(Click to enlarge)
Data source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/


----------



## FNChaos

roddy said:


> i am surprised that as some sort of medical type that you are unaware of , or choose to dismiss , the research which is going on and the apparent connection.


There have been multiple studies showing that chloroquine is ineffective in stopping a variety of viruses. That is not to say there might be something different about Covid-19 that makes it susceptible to treatment with chloroquine, but there isn't much evidence to support that it will.

The evidence that you and Bob cling to is 'sketchy' at best, and if you did any further research, you'd find that the tests performed in China were tainted because patients were given multiple drugs all at the same time and the French study had no controls & was too small to conclude anything.

You assume the reason the "Main Stream Media" isn't reporting on this "miraculous" cure is because of some conspiracy or left-wing political agenda, but then you accept information from obscure / right-wing news site without question as it confirms your opinion....

The World Health Origination only agreed to add chloroquine to their testing after Pres Trump announced that it was a "game changer" and all of the attention his statement garnered. (Of course Dr Fauci had to quickly tamp-down expectations as soon as the words came out of the President's mouth). As stated earlier, there are several more promising candidates being evaluated right now. Hopefully WHO's SOLIDARITY study will provide better answers.

As a healthcare worker, I would love to be provided with a vaccine or some other protective measure, but taking chloroquine prophylactically without a controlled study or hard evidence is simply ignorant.


----------



## Taylortony

John-H said:


> bobclive22 said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> If the virus is so bad, why are European death rates down?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> How about everyone is in lock down and not able to drive around and crash into each other, pollution is down, everyone is safe at home :roll:
Click to expand...

Still at work mate so still driving. Roads are unreal, no traffic, it's great..


----------



## bobclive22

I am going to predict that UK hospitals will have no more capacity problems this year compared with recent previous years.


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## roddy

5 days now since Bobs last post , i hope he is well and has just got fed up banging his head against the wall trying to keep us informed of certain developments .


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## John-H

Vodafone UK's chief executive Nick Jeffrey said on Sunday that _*"vandals"*_ had carried out a *"series of arson attacks" on masts around the country, and that some of the company's engineers had been abused in the street. ... "It beggars belief that some people should want to harm the very networks that are providing essential connectivity to the emergency services, the NHS, and rest of the country during this difficult lockdown period,"*.

_*"Sadly, we have experienced cases of vandals setting fire to mobile masts, disrupting critical infrastructure and spreading false information suggesting a connection between 5G and the COVID-19 pandemic,"*_

https://www.euronews.com/2020/04/06/cor ... d-covid-19

The government is increasingly concerned about the impact of the spread of conspiracy theories and has been considering legislation against social media, forums and other hosts of such material as well as the sources.

A video that allegedly showed the fire was shared in a local Facebook group, in which one user replied: *"Good!! All these need to get burnt down!! Coronavirus is just a cover up... its 5G killing everyone. Its too powerful. These all need to go."*

Another user said:* "Get them all taken off or burn them. Save lives - simple reason if police ask what made you do it. Simple."*

*"Lives are precious and these material things are destroying life. Shame on government knowing what is going on in the world but keeping quiet and blaming rats and bats in China."*

https://www.euronews.com/2020/04/04/is- ... ws-answers

It's all rubbish of course - nobody stopped to think: Why are countries such as Iran suffering from Covid-19 when they don't have any 5G? More disturbing is the consideration of how conspiracy theories spread and the questionable sources of the misinformation and the motivation behind those who create it and those who spread it. In these febrile times people should be more careful of their sources of information.

There are fact and bias checking websites with some very useful information:

https://fullfact.org
https://mediabiasfactcheck.com


----------



## John-H

I thought it was odd that Dominic Raab last night said he hadn't spoken to the Prime Minister since Saturday - given he's first secretary of state and would deputise. He didn't ask him how he was on Sunday evening when he was admitted to hospital or during Monday up until the daily briefing? He said at 4:30pm Monday that the PM was receiving red boxes and signing documents and in "good spirits" despite "persistent symptoms" and had only been admitted as a "precaution". Come the evening he's been moved into intensive care after receiving oxygen. It makes you wonder if the PM was still in charge and his deputy wasn't communicating with him who was in charge?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... e-covid-19

The situation may be moving rapidly but it's important for government to be open and honest during such crises as any hint of covering things up only leads to speculation. Conspiracy theories can start in such situations with other motivations highlighted and misinformation spreads. The government should be aware of this. When government is not trusted its authority and the willingness of the population to follow guidance is brought into question. That stacks up trouble.


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## John-H

There is some good news as of yesterday Monday 6th April that some countries have seen a flattening of the curve and reduction down the other side of the peak:



















These are logarithmic graphs and the UK has been on a straight line tend (meaning exponential rise in linear terms) since 21st March. Just displaying this last section (updated 6th April) gives a better perspective to spot any recent trend. As of yesterday there was an indication of falling positive test cases, hospital admissions and deaths but deaths tend to lag two weeks or so behind hospital admissions and there is a weekend reduction effect and this is only one data point - the coming days will confirm further:










Sources:
https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/


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## roddy

yes John , the coming days maybe somewhat enlightening . hoping for the best


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## ZephyR2

The latest conspiracy theory - Boris hadn't got the virus. 
He's pretending to have it so as to raise the seriousness of the problem with the general public. I guess this would involve certain medical staff etc. being in on the deal with him.


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## John-H

Just an update from tonight's Downing Street briefing. The number of positive test cases and hospital admissions continue to rise but over the last few days suggested at a lower rate. The death rate, given that patients who die tend to have been on ventilators for a couple of weeks (and presuming we have enough) is therefore likely not to depart from the trend for a couple of weeks unless something changes.


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## Iceblue

ZephyR2 said:


> The latest conspiracy theory - Boris hadn't got the virus.
> He's pretending to have it so as to raise the seriousness of the problem with the general public. I guess this would involve certain medical staff etc. being in on the deal with him.


Even more ridiculous than the 5 G tower conspiracy. Not sure why this would need to be repeated as the death of your PM at this critical time would be a tragedy for the UK.


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## John-H

Update from tonight's briefing. Totals are still increasing at an increasing rate but the rate of increase is slowing for new cases and hospital admissions. The death rate change is still likely to lag by a couple of weeks and has the highest daily increase yet.


----------



## John-H

I just read this Reuters news report. Quite astonishing to see all the dates and facts in sequence laid bare:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN21P1VF


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## John-H

Latest from tonight's briefing. The rate is still increasing apart for hospital admissions which has gone into decline at least for on data point (-ve gradient).


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## John-H

Latest from tonight's briefing.










Sources:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m ... e-12042020
https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

Please check your sources:
https://fullfact.org
https://mediabiasfactcheck.com


----------



## LVS

This may be of interest, there is a growing theory that the virus started spreading earlier than was previously thought and may have spread to USA (and other countries) as a results of the Military World Games that were held in Wuhan, China in late October. 110 counties took part

https://uncoverdc.com/2020/04/05/could- ... mber-2019/

Also, Iceland is in the process of testing their entire population; Of those that test positive for the virus, approximately 50% show no symptoms of the disease.


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## FNChaos

LVS said:


> This may be of interest, there is a growing theory that ---> snip.


Considering the source, I wouldn't give the article much credence. 
UncoverDC's 'Editor-in-chief' Tracy Beanz is a Right-wing conspiracy theorist who is known to organize QAnon rallies... 
[smiley=toilet.gif]


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## ashfinlayson

LVS said:


> This may be of interest, there is a growing theory that the virus started spreading earlier than was previously thought and may have spread to USA (and other countries) as a results of the Military World Games that were held in Wuhan, China in late October. 110 counties took part
> 
> https://uncoverdc.com/2020/04/05/could- ... mber-2019/
> 
> Also, Iceland is in the process of testing their entire population; Of those that test positive for the virus, approximately 50% show no symptoms of the disease.


As much as testing the entire nation is a good thing to do - The population of Iceland is under 400,000


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## Iceblue

LVS said:


> This may be of interest, there is a growing theory that the virus started spreading earlier than was previously thought and may have spread to USA (and other countries) as a results of the Military World Games that were held in Wuhan, China in late October. 110 counties took part
> 
> https://uncoverdc.com/2020/04/05/could- ... mber-2019/
> 
> Also, Iceland is in the process of testing their entire population; Of those that test positive for the virus, approximately 50% show no symptoms of the disease.


Your right and it is well known that the first cases in China must have occurred around this time. Unlike those on the left who are apologists for China causing and then trying to down play the outbreak with the complicity of the WHO, the article quoted appears objective and based upon facts that are well sourced. Whether it was the Military Games or the spread by others out of China (textile workers in Northern Italy etc) the fact that it was covered up enabled the spread to go global from this early period right up to February when early movers, US and Australia banned travel from China. Unfortunately even this was to late and not comprehensive enough given the blurred facts available at that time


----------



## John-H

FNChaos said:


> LVS said:
> 
> 
> 
> This may be of interest, there is a growing theory that ---> snip.
> 
> 
> 
> Considering the source, I wouldn't give the article much credence.
> UncoverDC's 'Editor-in-chief' Tracy Beanz is a Right-wing conspiracy theorist who is known to organize QAnon rallies...
> [smiley=toilet.gif]
Click to expand...

The website is currently under review by the fact check-checkers for bias and validity of sources . Given what you say it seems the news source should be dismissed as untrustworthy.


----------



## Iceblue

The WHO cannot be serious. Why anyone would want to listen, let alone support this conflicted organisation is beyond me https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_6149170157001


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## John-H

Iceblue said:


> The WHO cannot be serious. Why anyone would want to listen, let alone support this conflicted organisation is beyond me https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_6149170157001


More dubious news reporting I'm afraid. Sky News Australia is not the same as Sky News UK which is a respected news source and no longer associated with Rupert Murdoch. Sky News Australia is like Fox news with a right wing political agenda.

There are several factual errors in the article you've linked to - the biggest one is that the WHO don't have legal powers to demand anything of a member state so can't ban things. The WHO operates by the consent of *194* member states and has been encouraging China to release its research information into Covid-19 with some success - they released the sequencing information to allow worldwide vaccine research and have provided other information. It's a difficult balancing act for the WHO to encourage consensual coordinated international action when you've got China's political interests on one hand and Trump and the right wing media trying to make political capital on the other.

The other criticism of that article is the lack of perspective. "Wet markets" are like "Farmers markets" in the UK only not operating under the same hygiene laws Both sell fresh fruit and veg which is fine but it's the animal trade that's the problem not the market.

There are arguments for the WHO to be given legal powers so they can more effectively fight the next and bigger pandemic free from bullying political interference but everyone needs to agree. It's certainly better to have the WHO than the alternative of not having it.


----------



## ashfinlayson

I disagree John, Chinese wet markets are quite different to British farmers markets - At British markets, livestock is not kept alive, then slaughtered and butchered and sold/cooked in the same location at the same time so there is no opportunity for viral transmission from live animal to raw meat to consumer. Then we could go back to a previous arguments about animal welfare and the benefits of chlorine washing? :roll: British livestock is well looked after and vaccinated against a lot of nasties. The Chinese find wildlife, roadkill even steal peoples pets, take them to slaughter and sell with no vaccinations or welfare considerations.


----------



## John-H

Sorry if I confused - I did say and meant it was the animal trade that was the problem which is done in a way that wouldn't be allowed here (and is the source of the wider problem). I was making the point that both are fresh produce markets for fruit and veg (wet as opposed to dry) and in that respect are like fresh produce markets here. People like fresh food more direct from source rather than supermarkets etc in the same way - so it's not a local produce market that needs banning in its entirety just the animal problem within it - hope that clarifies.

I read that the animal trade was banned by the Chinese government within these markets until the restrictions were lifted.

There's a lot to be said for just eating fruit and veg. Most human pathogens originate in the animal kingdom.


----------



## John-H

Britain missed three opportunities to be part of an EU scheme to bulk-buy masks, gowns and gloves and has been absent from key talks about future purchases, the Guardian reports:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... lk-buy-ppe

But we did get 60 ventilators off Germany for free!


----------



## John-H

Latest from tonight's briefing.










Sources:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m ... e-14042020
https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

Please check your sources:
https://fullfact.org
https://mediabiasfactcheck.com


----------



## FNChaos

The 'wet' market (particularly in China) has been a concern for some time, mostly due to the high concentration of birds, swine and people mixing together in less-than hygienic conditions . It is known that birds can carry all known subtypes of influenza A, and that pigs are susceptible to infection with both avian and human influenza.

Cut from the National Center for Biotechnology Information's website
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2702078/
_"The "wet markets" of Southeast Asia, where people, pigs, ducks, geese and chickens (and occasionally other animals) are in close proximity pose a particular danger to public health"

"Because swine are susceptible to infection with both avian and human influenza viruses, novel reassortant influenza viruses can be generated in this mammalian species by reassortment of influenza viral segments leading to the "mixing vessel" theory"

"It is difficult to predict which virus will cause the next human pandemic and when that pandemic might begin. Importantly, the establishment and spread of a reassorted mammalian-adapted virus from pigs to humans could happen anywhere in the world. Therefore, both human and veterinary research needs to give more attention to potential cross-species transmission capacity of influenza A viruses."_

Cut from the Centers for Disease Control's website
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/virus-transmission.htm
_"Influenza A viruses have eight separate gene segments. The segmented genome allows influenza A viruses from different species to mix and create a new virus if influenza A viruses from two different species infect the same person or animal. For example, if a pig were infected with a human influenza A virus *and* an avian influenza A virus *at the same time*, the new replicating viruses could mix existing genetic information (reassortment) and produce a new influenza A virus that had most of the genes from the human virus, but a hemagglutinin gene and/or neuraminidase gene and other genes from the avian virus. The resulting new virus might then be able to infect humans and spread easily from person to person, but it would have surface proteins (hemagglutinin and/or neuraminidase) different than those currently found in influenza viruses that infect humans."

"This type of major change in the influenza A viruses is known as "antigenic shift." *Antigenic shift results when a new influenza A virus subtype to which most people have little or no immune protection infects humans*. If this new influenza A virus causes illness in people and is transmitted easily from person to person in a sustained manner, *an influenza pandemic can occur"*._

Note: The articles cited above are old (the first one from 2009) so this isn't something new. In fact, it was just a matter of time before something like Covid-19 was created. Considering what we learned from SARS and MERS, you have to wonder why we weren't more prepared?
I remember convincing my Dr. to give me both the PnuemoVac23 and Prevnar13 vaccines prophylacticly at the time (SARS `2003) after reading that the major cause of death (in the case of a pandemic) would likely be due to pneumonia and the lack of ventilators for treatment...


----------



## Iceblue

@Chaos, Agree we should be more prepared and no doubt this pandemic will lead to this. First up however we should be trying to mitigate the source which in the cases you refer to have commenced in CCP controlled China. As a totalitarian regime this should be straight forward but has not occurred. That worries me more as the next pandemic they release may overcome any future preparations as well.


----------



## Iceblue

Iceblue said:


> More dubious news reporting I'm afraid. Sky News Australia is not the same as Sky News UK which is a respected news source and no longer associated with Rupert Murdoch. Sky News Australia is like Fox news with a right wing political agenda.
> 
> There are several factual errors in the article you've linked to - the biggest one is that the WHO don't have legal powers to demand anything of a member state so can't ban things. The WHO operates by the consent of 194 member states and has been encouraging China to release its research information into Covid-19 with some success - they released the sequencing information to allow worldwide vaccine research and have provided other information. It's a difficult balancing act for the WHO to encourage consensual coordinated international action when you've got China's political interests on one hand and Trump and the right wing media trying to make political capital on the other.
> 
> The other criticism of that article is the lack of perspective. "Wet markets" are like "Farmers markets" in the UK only not operating under the same hygiene laws Both sell fresh fruit and veg which is fine but it's the animal trade that's the problem not the market.
> 
> There are arguments for the WHO to be given legal powers so they can more effectively fight the next and bigger pandemic free from bullying political interference but everyone needs to agree. It's certainly better to have the WHO than the alternative of not having it.
> Re: Corona virus (COVID-19)
> by Iceblue » Yesterday, 20:37
> 
> The WHO cannot be serious. Why anyone would want to listen, let alone support this conflicted organisation is beyond me https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_6149170157001


Poor attempt to de-platform here John. As you know all media is biased one way or another and Sky in Australia is also structured to meet regulations on concentrated ownership like it is in the UK. Some media is extreme like the Guardian, but Skynews is not extreme in this country and represents centre right values generally and is therefore a main stream media organisation. Just because the left (unbeleivably in the circumstances) is trying to politisise Co-vid by trying to blame centre right governments for inaction does not get around the WHO's ineptitude and/or conflicted conduct in this virus.

The article I linked does not contain any other inaccuracies and does not make any claims about the WHO having rights over other sovereign nations and I agree with what you say about that. It implies a right to "shut down" I concede, but what it is saying is the WHO should have a policy to advise members to shut down these wet markets. To date this has not been done and the article is highlighting the WHO's conditional support of wet markets in a region where modern standards cannot be enforced as there is no regulatory or other pressure for them to do so. Surely given the thousands of deaths in the UK, you would be interested in mitigating the future risk of this happening again rather than focusing on what Boris Johnson should or should not have done in the circumstances of a black swan event.


----------



## John-H

As widely reported ... "The Office For Budget Responsibility, the independent body that analyses public finance predicts that the economy could shrink by 35%, that 2million may be left jobless - and that the Government could be forced to borrow more in a single year than since World War Two.

The projection was based on the assumption that the shutdown lasts for three months followed by another three-month period during which restrictions are gradually lifted.

In this scenario, experts told the Government that unemployment would rise to 10% of the working population, but will ease off later in the year, and public sector net borrowing is forecast to reach 15% of GDP.

They also said that there would be a sharp economic rebound once the crisis was over."

This is of course a prediction but a relatively simple one to make given the known size of the economy and that it has largely been shut down.

Two variables that will make a huge difference are:

(1) the length of time the government keep the economy in lock down - for which they can not say perhaps because they don't know (or have not yet published) the mechanism by which they determine when it is safe to lift restrictions. It's Ok to see when the curve flattens to say, Ok we've stopped transmission now but without an exit strategy how do we lift restrictions and prevent resurgence of the virus - e.g. a vaccine plan or population testing and monitoring?

(2) The startup rebound will only occur if businesses will still exist in order to come out of hibernation - only 2% have so far successfully applied for the government emergency loan scheme. There is a danger that unless the rescue funding is made easier or more practical many will have gone bust by then.

The International Monetary Fund has also issued a forecast yesterday in which it said that the world was facing the worst recession since the Great Depression with a 3% downturn - a reversal from previous predicted growth.


----------



## SwissJetPilot

Post deleted by user.


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## ashfinlayson

I expect the government have an exist strategy of sorts at least in the works. But the health officials have continuously said lately that they don't know from the data where the peak is etc so it's too early to be talking publicly of exit strategy let alone executing it.

I suspect the economy will bounce back gradually, I can't see that being a quick process, the lockdown will likely be lifted gradually which you'd have thought will have a similar yet delayed impact on the economy as well. Though I suspect the UK will fair a lot better than most of Europe being outside of EU regulation.

Business aren't taking out the gov loan scheme because it's a terrible deal for businesses. Banks are offering terrible interest rates for one so it would be absolute last resort for most, and why get yourself in debt when you can just furlough your staff and have the taxpayer pay their wages? Business are working solely on cash retention so getting rid of as many overheads as possible, go down to skeleton staff so while they might not be bringing in money, they can keep the company at least operational or afloat on paper until the money starts coming back in again.


----------



## John-H

ashfinlayson said:


> I expect the government have an exist strategy of sorts at least in the works. But the health officials have continuously said lately that they don't know from the data where the peak is etc so it's too early to be talking publicly of exit strategy let alone executing it.


Although the timing may depend on unknown factors I think it would be helpful to know what the strategy was meaning to be - e.g. are they still thinking of herd immunity? I think we have a right to scrutinise the plan and know what it is. There's no point in refusing to discuss this and suddenly when a vaccine is available find out that we are not ready to deploy it because there was no plan.



ashfinlayson said:


> I suspect the economy will bounce back gradually, I can't see that being a quick process, the lockdown will likely be lifted gradually which you'd have thought will have a similar yet delayed impact on the economy as well.


If businesses go bust that section of the economy will be much slower to return than the lifting of the lockdown and may never return at all.



ashfinlayson said:


> Though I suspect the UK will fair a lot better than most of Europe being outside of EU regulation.


What on earth justifies that statement? We could have had PPE and ventilators if we'd lost the Brexit mindset.



ashfinlayson said:


> Business aren't taking out the gov loan scheme because it's a terrible deal for businesses. Banks are offering terrible interest rates for one so it would be absolute last resort for most, and why get yourself in debt when you can just furlough your staff and have the taxpayer pay their wages? Business are working solely on cash retention so getting rid of as many overheads as possible, go down to skeleton staff so while they might not be bringing in money, they can keep the company at least operational or afloat on paper until the money starts coming back in again.


The first year of interest and lender fee payments are paid for by the government for the 'Coronavirus Business Interruption Loan'. Many businesses are losing staff because they can't get a loan to fill in staff wages before the furlough scheme starts. The problem with the loans is that the banks are applying commercial checks and wrongly requiring security for the 20% not underwritten by the government. It's all taking too long.


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## SwissJetPilot

Post deleted by user.

.


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## ashfinlayson

I suspect herd immunity will be a part of it, a vaccine isn't exactly around the corner. Businesses go bust in every recession John, but this time the gov has done a lot to keep people in work, so those companies than can get by with low wage overheads until this blows over will probably be fine. But the government can't save every job, business or household, national debt is going to rocket anyway without spending extra cash on businesses whose days were already numbered. After recessions, companies that go under are eventually replaced by the next generation of entrepreneurs who this time round will have a bit of money in their pockets because the government opted to bail out joe public instead of thanks.

You only have to look at how well Germany did for 60 years after the second world war to see that deregulation leads to a prosperous economy. I'm not saying Britain will race to the bottom, but we've got options.


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## John-H

That's not very inspiring Ash and without a vaccine or effective treatment of the disease that sustains life, "herd immunity" which basically entails allowing the virus to spread, whether fast or slow, means condemning hundreds of thousands of people to death. I don't think that's acceptable.

I think we need a plan for when a vaccine becomes available to ensure supply and national mass implementation as soon as available.

Before that we need a plan to implement mass testing and contact tracing to stand any chance of lifting the lock down without triggering a second wave. That could include ongoing partial restrictions.

Meanwhile we need to support businesses to overcome the imposed cash flow crisis by immediately removing the barriers stopping them securing the free loans they are supposed to be receiving to tide them over the lock down period and stop them shedding jobs. The Swiss are providing 100% government security backing for the banks to provide 100% loans via a simple form within 24 hours of application. Why can't we do that?

We also need to extend the EU Brexit negotiations deadline as there's no point in imposing tariff costs and restrictions to trade at the end of the year (for which we have not prepared any infrastructure) on top of the effects of the current crisis.

Germany's success is not due to deregulation. They had a sensible system of government imposed for them at the end of the second World war and have been making sensible decisions within a supportive regulated system ever since.

This Corona virus crisis has not been left to market forces to sort out. It's required national and international coordination, regulation and support.

You could say it's the lack of sensible regulation and unrestricted market practices that caused the virus in the first place!

You need a sensible structure of regulation to stop things getting out of hand and to create the infrastructure and environment to allow business and society to be of mutual benefit to each other. Not just during an emergency but all the time.


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## ashfinlayson

It's a pandemic John, it's not meant to be inspiring.


----------



## John-H

I was talking about inspiration of a successful solution to the pandemic and its effects.

The government's furlough scheme is finally starting today. The take up of loans to cover the cash flow of wages amongst other things, up to this point, has been very poor because of the insistence that 20% security should be stumped up by the banks which has held up the process or made it impossible. 100% government backing would have been a solution.










From last night's daily briefing. The hospitalisation level has plateaued but the daily accumulated positive cases is increasing still although at a lower rate as is the death rate. The death rate is likely to lag by around two weeks. Deaths are recorded as those who have tested positive and died in hospital. Coroners are not allowed to record a death outside hospital as COVID-19 unless specifically tested for the virus but tests are not being done outside of hospital so the number of actual deaths in the community and care homes due to COVID-19 are likely to be several thousand greater.


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## Iceblue

Thanks for the update John and great to see you guys maybe over the hump.

I am surprised the banks are holding up the loans as it would not be in their interests to do so. Without recapitalised customers they would have a bleak future. None the less you need to have a third party conducting some risk analysis where they have some skin in the game otherwise the Scheme would be rorted. I think the bigger issue may be whether a client wants to take on debt at this early stage of the recovery.

In Australia we have allowed early access to Superannuation funds of up to $20K per person in addition to other measures such as loans. Up to 1 million people out of a population of 25 million are expected to do this.


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## John-H

Switzerland are providing loan cash within 24 hours after filling in a single form that's 100% backed by the government. The UK scheme is hampered by the banks being told to provide 20% under normal commercial terms.

A wider point: As the Sunday Times pointed out *here* following earlier reporting by Reuters detailing the timeline of events *here* and also *here* in the Guardian, the Prime Minister missed five emergency Corona Virus COBRA meetings in February when PPE stock was shipped from the UK to China and he was accused of having been "missing in action". He had enjoyed a holiday, attended a rugby match and Cheltnham races went ahead whilst other countries were locking down amidst the escalating pandemic and raising eyebrows at the UK's response.

The government were reluctant to do anything and were bounced into banning sporting events by the venues themselves deciding to take action. Then we had the drip feed of advising people not to go to pubs and theatresbefore the government took action to close them. The PM had seemed reluctant to take it seriously and boasted about shaking hands with everyone at a hospital treating Corona virus patients and then came down with COVID-19 himself. He was apparently at deaths door and has still yet to return to his job. Before he succumbed to the illness he changed his tone to give a serious warning about families losing loved ones. A serious candor which sat uncomfortably with his more familiar jovial optimism. During his absence the cabinet have seemed reluctant to take decisions. Was this because he picked them to be yes men or are they happy to allow him to take responsibility? There are the ambitious amongst them and amongst back bencher's who are now speaking out demanding a plan.

It's interesting that Michael Gove confirmed on Sunday to Andrew Marr that the PM _had_ missed the COBRA meetings. He claimed that it wouldn't have been necessary for him to attend but the excuse seemed the opposite edge to a double edged sword for which Gove has form. It is not difficult to conclude that for the PM not to chair the COBRA meetings the implication is that he didn't see the situation as important enough. That could have lost us time and lives.

Meanwhile we have a severe failure of the supply of PPE with according to the Royal College of Nursing *here* 67% of nurses don't have adequate access to PPE, one third have spend their own money buying their own and one in 10 resorted to making their own. We have UK suppliers of PPE being ignored by the government and resorting to export their stock. Standards are revised down to preserve stocks rather than clinical need. We've also got a huge problem with PPE in care homes and the wider community with many COVID-19 deaths going unreported.

Following comments to a select committee by the Foreign Office's permanent secretary, Sir Simon McDonald that the decision not to engage with the EU PPE scheme was a "political decision", Matt Hancock today used the Downing Street daily press briefing to rebut the damaging claims that the government put Brexit ideology ahead of people's lives. Hancock claimed that we have joined the EU scheme now but it hasn't provided a "single piece of equipment". One has to ask - is that because we didn't take the opportunity to join it when it started?

I do wonder where this is heading. Johnson won the Conservatives the election with his ra-ra optimistic can-do buffoon act but the serious situation we are now in does not fit well for what needs to be a more serious and competent leadership style and capability. The Tory party can be ruthless when they see a leader become a liability. Look what happened to May.

We also have a testing crisis. No 10 said yesterday that the capacity was 36,000 per day, lass than the 38,000 announced last week and today claimed that 39,250 could be carried out but that only 13,460 had actually been performed. According to Matt Hancock we should be up to 100,000 per day by the end of the month in nine days time. This seems unlikely.

Now it has been revealed *here* that the NHS are using a 'flawed' COVID-19 test - missing 25% of positives and allowing NHS workers and others to return to work and infect patients, colleagues and the public.

Latest from tonight's briefing 21st April:










Sources:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m ... e-21042020
https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

Please check your sources:
https://fullfact.org
https://mediabiasfactcheck.com


----------



## FNChaos

Not looking good for hydroxychloroquine as a treatment for COVID-19... :?

*"Trial of chloroquine to treat COVID-19 stopped early due to heart complications"*
https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-chloroquine-study-stopped-early.html

*"No evidence of rapid antiviral clearance or clinical benefit with the combination of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin in patients with severe COVID-19 infection"*
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0399077X20300858?via=ihub

*"No benefit, higher death rate for malaria drug in coronavirus study"*
http://www.rfi.fr/en/wires/20200422-no- ... irus-study

*"NIH Panel Recommends Against Drug Combination Promoted By Trump For COVID-19"*
https://www.npr.org/sections/corona...g-combination-trump-has-promoted-for-covid-19


----------



## leopard

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... uine-trial

A double whammy here. It looks like hydroxychloroquine isn't the magic bullet people thought it might be in the treatment against Covid-19 and an extra bonus to look forward to this Winter is a potential second wave corona outbreak with flu combo..


----------



## John-H

This Channel 4 news report perhaps illustrates why we were so behind despite being able to see what was happening in other countries:


----------



## FNChaos

According to multiple news sources, Dr. Rick Bright - Director of the Department of Health and Human Services' Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) was removed from his post after he pressed for a rigorous vetting of a coronavirus treatment. (BARDA is the United States federal agency tasked with developing a coronavirus vaccine).

From the Chicago Tribune: 
https://www.chicagotribune.com/coro...0200422-mgdln3b2nzfafggwpyvnukszqi-story.html

"(The) doctor says he was removed from his federal post after pressing for rigorous vetting of treatments embraced by President Donald Trump."

"Bright, who is a career official and not a political appointee, pointed specifically to the initial efforts to make chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine widely available before it was scientifically tested for efficacy with the coronavirus."

"Specifically, and contrary to misguided directives, I limited the broad use of chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine, promoted by the administration as a panacea but which clearly lack scientific merit,"

"While I am prepared to look at all options and to think 'outside the box' for effective treatments, I rightly resisted efforts to provide an unproven drug on demand to the American public,"

"I believe this transfer was in response to my insistence that the government invest the billions of dollars allocated by Congress to address the COVID-19 pandemic into safe and scientifically vetted solutions and not in drugs, vaccines and other technologies that lack scientific merit,"

"Unfortunately, this resulted in clashes with HHS political leadership, including criticism for my proactive efforts to invest early into vaccines and supplies critical to saving American lives. I also resisted efforts to fund potentially dangerous drugs promoted by those with political connections,"

"Sidelining me in the middle of this pandemic and placing politics and cronyism ahead of science puts lives at risk and stunts national efforts to safely and effectively address this urgent public health crisis," Bright said.

"I will request that the inspector general of the Department of Health and Human Services investigate the manner in which this administration has politicized the work of BARDA and has pressured me and other conscientious scientists to fund companies with political connections and efforts that lack scientific merit,"

The White House declined to comment on Bright's statement...


----------



## John-H

I heard about that. It is a great concern when cronyism and politics infect our scientific institutions. Reality will be the final arbiter however.


----------



## John-H

Trump suggests injecting disinfectant as treatment :roll:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52407177

Doctors warned the president's idea could have fatal results. Pulmonologist Dr Vin Gupta told NBC News: *"This notion of injecting or ingesting any type of cleansing product into the body is irresponsible and it's dangerous. It's a common method that people utilise when they want to kill themselves."*

What got me was when a journalist in the press briefing made the point that _people look to these press briefings for guidance not rumour_ to which Trump replied, *"I'm the president. You're fake news."*


----------



## Iceblue

Noted this from the same anti FOX article quoted by Chaos

"Medical experts say that it is still not known whether hydroxychloroquine might yet emerge as an effective treatment for the most devastating symptoms of COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus. The studies in Brazil and at the Department of Veterans Affairs were small and limited. Comprehensive, peer-reviewed studies have yet to be completed, and while hospitals are using the drug, many doctors acknowledge they are doing so only because they have few other tools to help dying patients"

Also from the initial scientific material disclosed by Bob it is noted that the Chloroquine/zinc treatment proposed would be less effective to hospitalised patients and opined that its best effect would be on preventing people from becoming infected or fighting off the infection in its early stages before it became serious and moved to the lungs. This is the problem with the studies as regulatory requirements only allow testing in circumstances where it is given to hospitalised patients as a last resort.

I wonder whether any studies are being done on the Indian medial staff who were prescribed it several weeks ago?


----------



## Iceblue

John-H said:


> Trump suggests injecting disinfectant as treatment :roll:
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52407177
> 
> Doctors warned the president's idea could have fatal results. Pulmonologist Dr Vin Gupta told NBC News: *"This notion of injecting or ingesting any type of cleansing product into the body is irresponsible and it's dangerous. It's a common method that people utilise when they want to kill themselves."*
> 
> What got me was when a journalist in the press briefing made the point that _people look to these press briefings for guidance not rumour_ to which Trump replied, *"I'm the president. You're fake news."*


Unfair conclusion there as he was asking the question to a medical expert at his side whether the disinfectant could be injected. Dumb question I concede, but a questiion nevertheless. Of course this does not stop the anti trump media converting an obvious question into a statement. More politics 101. Its like Boris not being at meetings he was not meant to be at. Catch 22. In hindsight these meetings look critical but at the time did not require the countires leader to attend. Proximate context is everything in writing an accurate version of history.


----------



## John-H

The point is that it's a national press briefing from the Whitehouse and Trump should know that what he says gets taken as sound advice by some people which can lead to deaths - as happened when he started spouting on about unproven drug therapies such as Chloroquine - which he's now gone quiet about. His lose talk is irresponsible and he should be more careful. This is a demonstrable fact and nothing to do with press bias.

As regards Johnson attending Cobra meetings; whilst it it's not compulsory for the PM to chair, it is his/her choice and is usual at times of national crisis and an indication of how seriously he/she takes the matter.

I suggest that an indication of how seriously he took it was the Prime Minister's boasting that he shook hands with everybody at a hospital treating COVID-19 patients when the official advice was to avoid closer contact and to wash your hands. He has perhaps learnt his lesson the hard way but the fact that he didn't take the situation seriously coincides with his failure to chair Cobra meetings. This too is not reporting bias but a demonstrable fact.

Here's a Guardian report on this very issue contrasting Gordon Brown's chairing of Cobra during the foot and mouth crisis with Johnson's lack of attendance for Corona virus:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.thegua ... a-meetings

The Guardian is a left of centre newspaper so might choose to report this but it is factual. It uses reliable sources of information most of the time and is generally a trustworthy news source.

Contrast that with Fox news which is far right of centre and often uses dubious sources of information and promotes conspiracy theories.

You can look them up here:

https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/fox-news/

https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/the-guardian/

And then we have the BBC as more central and highly factual.

https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/bbc/

It is wrong to imply that a slight political bias in choice of reporting renders a source inaccurate. It is also wrong to imply that all left and right biases are equal and opposite and certainly erroneous to suggest that both sides lie equally. That argument usually gets trotted out by those holding indefensible positions - sutch as during the Brexit discussions when Vote Leave cheated and received massive fines for overspending which would have rendered a legally binding referendum result void - but then leave supporters said well the other side cheated too - as if their small discrepancy were anywhere near equal and even if it were true would be another reason to void the result. But I digress.....


----------



## Iceblue

I was not implying any political bias I was stating a fact that had been distorted by the media and then regurgitated by you. The media in distorting facts and being alarmist leads to people doing the wrong thing, not Trump causing them to do the wrong thing. Agree though that Trump has been hamfisted in several areas surrounding the virus.


----------



## John-H

They are not distorting facts. You can see what he said on the video yourself - no distortion. He's irresponsible for saying it. He's a dangerous lose cannon. It was his own press conference where he knows millions will be watching. He said it. There's only one person responsible. Him. It had to be immediately denied by medical experts and we've now had several disinfectant manufacturers having to issue warnings to the public not to ingest or introduce their products into the human body.


----------



## ZephyR2

It's better to say nothing and be thought stupid, than to open your mouth and prove it.

Someone should tell Trump.


----------



## FNChaos

Iceblue said:



> Noted this from the same anti FOX article quoted by Chaos
> 
> "Medical experts say that it is still not known whether hydroxychloroquine might yet emerge as an effective treatment for the most devastating symptoms of COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus. The studies in Brazil and at the Department of Veterans Affairs were small and limited. Comprehensive, peer-reviewed studies have yet to be completed, and while hospitals are using the drug, many doctors acknowledge they are doing so only because they have few other tools to help dying patients"


Out of all of the various newspapers running a story about Dr. Bright, I intentionally chose one from the _'right-of-center'_ Chicago Tribune knowing that anything published by a _'left-leaning'_ paper would be quickly dismissed as "fake". I also chose the Chicago Tribune for the high marks it receives for factual reporting.

From mediafactcheck.com: "Overall, we rate the Chicago Tribune Right-Center biased based on moderately right leaning editorial positions and High for factual reporting due to a clean fact check record."

Compared with Fox... "Overall, we rate Fox News strongly Right-Biased due to editorial positions and story selection that favors the right. We also rate them Mixed factually and borderline Questionable based on poor sourcing and the spreading of conspiracy theories that later must be retracted after being widely shared. Further, Fox News would be rated a Questionable source based on numerous failed fact checks by hosts and pundits, however straight news reporting is generally reliable, therefore we rate them Mixed for factual reporting.

While there still might be use for hydroxychloroquine in the treatment of COVID-19, there is almost no evidence that its the "game-changer" that Pres Trump initially claimed it to be.

As you point out, studies (so far) have been small and still need peer review, but the "initial scientific material disclosed by Bob" is even smaller with less scientific rigor.

From my perspective, it seems like there is more emphasis from the 'right' to prove Pres Trump was correct about hydroxychloroquine (thus allowing him to saving face) than there is to find the best COVID-19 treatment, whatever that might turn out to be.


----------



## John-H

Apparently Trump is now back-peddling on his disinfectant advice claiming he was being sarcastic :roll:


----------



## LVS

Injections of Chlorine, US patent ; https://patents.google.com/patent/US10105389B1/en


----------



## LVS

This is the interesting part;



> The chlorine dioxide compositions are administered (preferably, by injection) directly into the cancerous tumor and the resulting tumor is effectively eliminated from the patient or subject over a period of one to several days to a few weeks, often after a single injection or multiple injections at one time into the tumor. Often, an initial injection or multiple injections at one time are sufficient to dissolve the cancerous tumor. Often the cancer is eliminated (as evidenced by remission) in a period of no more than several days to about two-three months and does not recur.


----------



## leopard

Forget chlorine dioxide.

Chlorine tri-fluoride (CLF3) is the one to get


----------



## John-H

Errrrr. . . . Corona virus infection is not localised and not a tumour. It infects the whole body. Are you suggesting dissolving the whole body with bleach? I suppose that's one way of dealing with a problem :?


----------



## Iceblue

John-H said:


> Apparently Trump is now back-peddling on his disinfectant advice claiming he was being sarcastic :roll:


He is doing that because it was a dumb question that he posed. Again, it was never a statement that you should inject disenfectant. Don't let me stop you being derranged however as the more the media does this, the more votes Trump receives. Instances such as this reinforces to his base that most media is fake.


----------



## Iceblue

FNChaos said:


> Iceblue said:
> 
> 
> 
> Noted this from the same anti FOX article quoted by Chaos
> 
> "Medical experts say that it is still not known whether hydroxychloroquine might yet emerge as an effective treatment for the most devastating symptoms of COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus. The studies in Brazil and at the Department of Veterans Affairs were small and limited. Comprehensive, peer-reviewed studies have yet to be completed, and while hospitals are using the drug, many doctors acknowledge they are doing so only because they have few other tools to help dying patients"
> 
> 
> 
> Out of all of the various newspapers running a story about Dr. Bright, I intentionally chose one from the _'right-of-center'_ Chicago Tribune knowing that anything published by a _'left-leaning'_ paper would be quickly dismissed as "fake". I also chose the Chicago Tribune for the high marks it receives for factual reporting.
> 
> From mediafactcheck.com: "Overall, we rate the Chicago Tribune Right-Center biased based on moderately right leaning editorial positions and High for factual reporting due to a clean fact check record."
> 
> Compared with Fox... "Overall, we rate Fox News strongly Right-Biased due to editorial positions and story selection that favors the right. We also rate them Mixed factually and borderline Questionable based on poor sourcing and the spreading of conspiracy theories that later must be retracted after being widely shared. Further, Fox News would be rated a Questionable source based on numerous failed fact checks by hosts and pundits, however straight news reporting is generally reliable, therefore we rate them Mixed for factual reporting.
> 
> While there still might be use for hydroxychloroquine in the treatment of COVID-19, there is almost no evidence that its the "game-changer" that Pres Trump initially claimed it to be.
> 
> As you point out, studies (so far) have been small and still need peer review, but the "initial scientific material disclosed by Bob" is even smaller with less scientific rigor.
> 
> From my perspective, it seems like there is more emphasis from the 'right' to prove Pres Trump was correct about hydroxychloroquine (thus allowing him to saving face) than there is to find the best COVID-19 treatment, whatever that might turn out to be.
Click to expand...

There is also a very real perspective that there is more emphasis by the media to prove Trump wrong or to distort his statements to make him look wrong.

In any event I agree with you that if the media spent less time on this it could focus on the real issues of finding a treatment and to determine the source and how it was allowed to spread from China in circumstances where the WHO said it was not necessary to stop flights out of China and in particular Wuhan. I cannot understand why China shut down all travel out of Wuhan into other parts of China but at the same time allowed people to fly out of Wuhan to the rest of the world. This is what the media should be focussing on.


----------



## John-H

Iceblue said:


> John-H said:
> 
> 
> 
> Apparently Trump is now back-peddling on his disinfectant advice claiming he was being sarcastic :roll:
> 
> 
> 
> He is doing that because it was a dumb question that he posed. Again, it was never a statement that you should inject disenfectant. Don't let me stop you being derranged however as the more the media does this, the more votes Trump receives. Instances such as this reinforces to his base that most media is fake.
Click to expand...

So your advice would be to allow Trump's statement to go out on live TV and not to comment on it? Really?

Allow people to take on board the suggestion from the president without qualification?

Not to give any warning that it was dangerous? Just allow it to go out and not say anything?

I'm glad you realise it was a "dumb" suggestion so presumably won't be trying it but are you confident that all the millions of people who heard it would also realise it was not a good suggestion?

People have died as a direct result of him suggesting chloroquine would protect you from catching Corona virus.

How many people do you think would die if the president's suggestion to inject disinfectant was allowed to go out without comment or challenge?

I don't think it is "deranged" to think that the correct response is to highlight the irresponsible suggestion and warn of the danger of trying it. That's responsible reporting. Not to comment would be neglect.


----------



## ashfinlayson

The trouble with Trump is that he thinks out loud.


----------



## Iceblue

Agreed and is struggling with the fact that he is no longer in control as the State Governors are effectively running the show and dictating to him when the economy can restart.


----------



## Iceblue

John-H said:


> Iceblue said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> John-H said:
> 
> 
> 
> Apparently Trump is now back-peddling on his disinfectant advice claiming he was being sarcastic :roll:
> 
> 
> 
> He is doing that because it was a dumb question that he posed. Again, it was never a statement that you should inject disenfectant. Don't let me stop you being derranged however as the more the media does this, the more votes Trump receives. Instances such as this reinforces to his base that most media is fake.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> So your advice would be to allow Trump's statement to go out on live TV and not to comment on it? Really?
> 
> Allow people to take on board the suggestion from the president without qualification?
> 
> Not to give any warning that it was dangerous? Just allow it to go out and not say anything?
> 
> I'm glad you realise it was a "dumb" suggestion so presumably won't be trying it but are you confident that all the millions of people who heard it would also realise it was not a good suggestion?
> 
> People have died as a direct result of him suggesting chloroquine would protect you from catching Corona virus.
> 
> How many people do you think would die if the president's suggestion to inject disinfectant was allowed to go out without comment or challenge?
> 
> I don't think it is "deranged" to think that the correct response is to highlight the irresponsible suggestion and warn of the danger of trying it. That's responsible reporting. Not to comment would be neglect.
Click to expand...

Your right to call him out for being hamfisted as a result of potential consequences but don't add to the possibility of these consequences by saying he gave advice to inject disinfectant. The reason companies have had to follow up to correct this is because of the media's incorrect reporting that he was giving advice when he was asking a question.


----------



## John-H

I didn't say he gave advice and neither did the news report I linked to. It said, *"Trump suggests injecting disinfectant as treatment"*. That's not advice it's a suggestion but I can understand the two might be mixed up or people might not appreciate the difference. I did say people look to the press conference for advice. It's a daily official presentation. In the press conference Trump himself said, *"I'm here to present ideas"* and therein lies the danger.


----------



## StuartDB

They just debunked the chlorine treatment after treating half the patients in a ward with it and more of those died than the non chlorine treated.

I'm really annoyed with the constant discussion of immunity. When WHO has said no guaranteed immunity, and the vaccine experts said corona virus antibodies only hang around for a little while.


----------



## John-H

StuartDB said:


> They just debunked the chlorine treatment after treating half the patients in a ward with it and more of those died than the non chlorine treated.
> 
> I'm really annoyed with the constant discussion of immunity. When WHO has said no guaranteed immunity, and the vaccine experts said corona virus antibodies only hang around for a little while.


Yes, reports of it here: https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/2020 ... 020046001/

And you are right to say there's no hard evidence to say that once you've had it you are immune. The key maybe in the T cells but the idea of immunity passports is fraught with problems such as forgery or people deliberately infecting themselves: https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-52425825

Also Republican governor of Maryland had to put out health alert warning after receiving hundreds of calls from people asking if it was Ok to treat themselves with disinfectant:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.axios. ... f6e00.html


----------



## Iceblue

StuartDB said:


> They just debunked the chlorine treatment after treating half the patients in a ward with it and more of those died than the non chlorine treated.
> 
> I'm really annoyed with the constant discussion of immunity. When WHO has said no guaranteed immunity, and the vaccine experts said corona virus antibodies only hang around for a little while.


For obvious reasons, lets hope they don't approach testing for other vacines or treatments for Covid based on only one ward of patients who have already moved to the hospitalised stage of the virus.

Also I would be careful relying on the WHO given their ineptitude and complicity with CCP controlled China in allowing the virus to spread in late January February. You could rely on your own experts going forward and forgive them and the recipients of their advice for being confused by the WHO until it was too late.

From what I have read there has been no conclusive expert review that there may be no longer term immunity post infection.

Also you may not have heard, but China today threatened economic sanctions against Australia because our government is seeking support from all countries, including China, to conduct an independent review of how and where the virus came from and how best to identify and contain potential pandemics at their source. I am not into consiparcy theories, but their reluctance and bullying to this reasonable request may suggest there is a bigger picture here.

Here is a bit of background from our BBC equivalent the ABC (left of centre)- https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04...-juncture-china-the-west-world-order/12179972


----------



## John-H

A vaccine is to stop you contracting the disease so you would give it to healthy people before they become exposed to the virus.

That's what's going on at the moment in the Oxford trialin a group of about 1,100 volunteers. They are randomly administering the new Corona vaccine to half and the other half a common meningitis vaccine as a control.

https://www.cambridgenetwork.co.uk/news ... rial-stage


----------



## Iceblue

Your right of course and perhaps I should have been more careful with my sarcasm. Fingers crossed for your Oxford team


----------



## FNChaos

If you are stuck at home and bored out of your skull, [smiley=skull.gif] here is a episode of an American program called "Frontline" that chronicles the COVID pandemic response in Washington State (First reported case in the US). Warning, it is rather long (53 minutes)

FWIW, I work in all of the hospitals mentioned in the program (Prov Everett, Evergreen Kirkland) as well as hospitals in downtown Seattle. I can say (from my perspective anyway) that it is an accurate accounting of the events...






...and here is an interesting article comparing Seattle's COVID-19 response with that of New York.
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/...et-scientists-take-the-lead-new-yorks-did-not
Bottom line, Seattle acted quickly and (relatively) decisively where-as New York did not.

Quote from the above article: _" More than fifteen thousand people in New York are believed to have died from covid-19. Last week in Washington State, the estimate was fewer than seven hundred people. New Yorkers now hear constant ambulance sirens, which remind them of the invisible viral threat; residents are currently staying home at even higher rates than in Seattle"_


----------



## StuartDB

I'm loving Dr Hilary on Good Morning Britain this morning talking about smoking kills the virus after last week telling a caller that is utter rubbish, after they referred to a study in China. I am not sure if it is for post smokers hardened / damaged lungs etc or the actual heat and smoke of the action of smoking.
I love these "science commentators" who have to keep backtracking.


----------



## StuartDB

Iceblue said:


> StuartDB said:
> 
> 
> 
> They just debunked the chlorine treatment after treating half the patients in a ward with it and more of those died than the non chlorine treated.
> 
> I'm really annoyed with the constant discussion of immunity. When WHO has said no guaranteed immunity, and the vaccine experts said corona virus antibodies only hang around for a little while.
> 
> 
> 
> For obvious reasons, lets hope they don't approach testing for other vacines or treatments for Covid based on only one ward of patients who have already moved to the hospitalised stage of the virus.
> 
> Also I would be careful relying on the WHO given their ineptitude and complicity with CCP controlled China in allowing the virus to spread in late January February. You could rely on your own experts going forward and forgive them and the recipients of their advice for being confused by the WHO until it was too late.
> 
> From what I have read there has been no conclusive expert review that there may be no longer term immunity post infection.
> 
> Also you may not have heard, but China today threatened economic sanctions against Australia because our government is seeking support from all countries, including China, to conduct an independent review of how and where the virus came from and how best to identify and contain potential pandemics at their source. I am not into consiparcy theories, but their reluctance and bullying to this reasonable request may suggest there is a bigger picture here.
> 
> Here is a bit of background from our BBC equivalent the ABC (left of centre)- https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04...-juncture-china-the-west-world-order/12179972
Click to expand...

What I have not heard much about is what the long term damage to the body might be for those getting as far as an respirator - they were saying some people had Kidney and Liver damage instead of Lungs which surely must mean it is bloodborne in some people doesn't it?

When you say "conspiracy theories" being discussed is that down to a leak from the Wuhan lab by accident or even on purpose? it seems every 101 years something pandemic is created as a population control.

Although, I did read a theory about a Wuhan Lab scientist had a wife in Canada and she visited a few times between Canada and Wuhan, then for some reason was sacked in Canada?

This article is from October 2019. Surprisingly, around the same time the UK denied stockpiling Bodybags in preparation for Brexit, but they didn't deny stockpiling them.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba ... -1.5307424

There's quite a few accusations surrounding the Wuhan Lab in the news last week - including "unit broken seals" and $3.7m grant paid to the Wuhan lab.


----------



## StuartDB

John-H said:


> A vaccine is to stop you contracting the disease so you would give it to healthy people before they become exposed to the virus.
> 
> That's what's going on at the moment in the Oxford trialin a group of about 1,100 volunteers. They are randomly administering the new Corona vaccine to half and the other half a common meningitis vaccine as a control.
> 
> https://www.cambridgenetwork.co.uk/news ... rial-stage


They have been speaking to quite a few different research labs using different types of vaccine - so it will be interesting in whether there will be multiple types available - with different side effects etc


----------



## Iceblue

StuartDB said:


> Iceblue said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> StuartDB said:
> 
> 
> 
> They just debunked the chlorine treatment after treating half the patients in a ward with it and more of those died than the non chlorine treated.
> 
> I'm really annoyed with the constant discussion of immunity. When WHO has said no guaranteed immunity, and the vaccine experts said corona virus antibodies only hang around for a little while.
> 
> 
> 
> For obvious reasons, lets hope they don't approach testing for other vacines or treatments for Covid based on only one ward of patients who have already moved to the hospitalised stage of the virus.
> 
> Also I would be careful relying on the WHO given their ineptitude and complicity with CCP controlled China in allowing the virus to spread in late January February. You could rely on your own experts going forward and forgive them and the recipients of their advice for being confused by the WHO until it was too late.
> 
> From what I have read there has been no conclusive expert review that there may be no longer term immunity post infection.
> 
> Also you may not have heard, but China today threatened economic sanctions against Australia because our government is seeking support from all countries, including China, to conduct an independent review of how and where the virus came from and how best to identify and contain potential pandemics at their source. I am not into consiparcy theories, but their reluctance and bullying to this reasonable request may suggest there is a bigger picture here.
> 
> Here is a bit of background from our BBC equivalent the ABC (left of centre)- https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04...-juncture-china-the-west-world-order/12179972
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> What I have not heard much about is what the long term damage to the body might be for those getting as far as an respirator - they were saying some people had Kidney and Liver damage instead of Lungs which surely must mean it is bloodborne in some people doesn't it?
> 
> When you say "conspiracy theories" being discussed is that down to a leak from the Wuhan lab by accident or even on purpose? it seems every 101 years something pandemic is created as a population control.
> 
> Although, I did read a theory about a Wuhan Lab scientist had a wife in Canada and she visited a few times between Canada and Wuhan, then for some reason was sacked in Canada?
> 
> This article is from October 2019. Surprisingly, around the same time the UK denied stockpiling Bodybags in preparation for Brexit, but they didn't deny stockpiling them.
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba ... -1.5307424
> 
> There's quite a few accusations surrounding the Wuhan Lab in the news last week - including "unit broken seals" and $3.7m grant paid to the Wuhan lab.
Click to expand...

Yes a consipracy theory as to whether it was released intentionally for geo-political reasons involving the weakening and distraction of the West whilst it makes it move on Taiwan and other areas. It will also enhance its Belts & Roads influencing program with every country crying out for investment post Covid.

Regardless, a full enquiry around the outbreak and how to prevent one from spreading in the future is a critical requirement to stopping this happening again.

I am surprised other nations of like values have not demanded this and put greater pressure on China to be transparent. Then again I am not surprised, as most of those countries have also bought the man made climate change hysteria model whilst letting China off the hook at Paris and elsewhere so it can over develop using cheap fossil fuel whilst we all go backwards paying for subsidised renewables that don't provide base load power. This enables those countries to export their climate change responsibilities to China by shifting the bulk of the worlds manufacturiung base there.

Hypocracy I know, but thats the crazy reality we have ended up with driven by a loud minority. Hopefully Covid will change this.


----------



## John-H

Conspiracy theories again :roll: And man made climate change is real - the scientists and David Attenborough and most of the world say so but perhaps this pandemic might help us realise we need to, can do and should do something about it.


----------



## John-H

UK tend since 21st March updated 28th April - Update from tonight's Government briefing. Totals of people who have tested positive and cumulative deaths are still increasing but the current number actively hospitalised has plateaued and has recently seemed to decline. The death rate is likely to lag by around two weeks. Deaths are recorded as those who have tested positive and died in hospital. Daily hospital deaths also seem to be decreasing. A third of all corona virus deaths in England and Wales, however, are now happening in care homes, figures show. The Office for National Statistics data showed there were 2,000 corona virus care home deaths in the week ending 17 April, double the previous week.

It brings the total number of deaths in care homes linked to the virus since the start of the pandemic to 3,096.:










The government provided this graph tonight in the middle of the briefing - you can see the grey line - that's the UK total deaths (not just in hospitals but in all settings) under the USA's total. The grey line lags behind the blue UK hospital deaths because of the time to report. We are heading to be the worst death toll behind the USA and overtaking italy if that trend line continues.









(click to magnify)

From tomorrow the UK is to include the total from all settings - not just hospitals. Some on care are complaing we have a National Hospital Service and their sector has been overlooked.


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## Iceblue

Surprisingly on a per head of population, your death rate is well north of the US


----------



## k3vink3vin

Iceblue said:


> Surprisingly on a per head of population, your death rate is well north of the US


Yes the death per 1M pop for UK is a lot worse than the US


----------



## LVS

k3vink3vin said:


> Iceblue said:
> 
> 
> 
> Surprisingly on a per head of population, your death rate is well north of the US
> 
> 
> 
> Yes the death per 1M pop for UK is a lot worse than the US
Click to expand...

And 1/3 of that US death rate is from one city, New York....


----------



## ashfinlayson

There are a lot more people per square mile in the UK that US so that isn't surprising. But I expect USA probably has a higher toll than in daily reports given the health inequality.


----------



## John-H

Latest from tonight's briefing:










As you can see there's been a jump in the death curve since they started including non hospital COVID-19 deaths but we are still not out of the woods.

Meanwhile two interesting graphs.This one shows the daily testing rate:










There has been much hype about will the government reach it's 100k per day "people tested" test target by the end of the month (which they have tried to turn into "test capacity"). We know from various sources that (1) included in the total are single test kits sent out but not yet returned, (2) multiple test kit packs sent but neither returned or allocated to individual users, (3) inclusion of test kits ordered but not yet sent, (4) not every test counting towards one person as some are wasted or repeated. So from the graph it's perhaps not surprising that in an effort to reach the political milestone, since then, the daily testing has dropped back. It's also not clear that when the posted out tests eventually return they will not get counted again.

Then there's this - a comparison with other countries. It looks like we are going to overtake Italy as the worst EU country:


----------



## LVS

Per capita, UK has a ways to go before it catches up to Italy.


----------



## ZephyR2

It's hard to know who has the worst death rate. Presently it's Belgium - but they say that's because their being honest. Ostensibly China has the best. Really??
It al depends upon what you count and how you count it - are you only counting deaths in hospital, deaths in the community as well, only deaths where tests have been carried out ?
What about deaths where Covid19 is a factor but not the actual cause of death ? 
Apart from that it can all becomes very political too , like our "testing figures". Governments don't want to appear to be doing worse than other countries.


----------



## LVS

Due to the State of Emergency that was declared in USA, hospitals get more Federal funding per patient if that patient is positive for COVID-19. Needless to say this has prompted some doctors to label just about anything as COVID, even if the disease was the not the primary, or even contributing factor.

I think it may be several months until a full accounting is made by which time I think some doctors may find themselves on the wrong side of fraud investigations. If our DOJ starts issuing threats against them then I would expect our recorded numbers to be adjusted downwards sharply.

South Dakota and Oregon have recorded similar death rates and have similar populations, the former did no lockdown at all, while Oregon remains under a stay at home order.


----------



## John-H

Apart from clear positive tested COVID-19 deaths and doubts over how they may be measured, such as only hospital deaths like the UK was doing, one measure that will feature in analysis is the excess death rate over the average for the year. That will include the collateral effects such as people dying of other causes because they couldn't or avoided getting treated until it was too late etc. Also many older people may have died prematurely but only by a year or so anyway due to existing health conditions even if it weren't for the pandemic. The excess death measure will show the total effect over the norm and cut through the differences in measuring.

But it's official now:

*UK coronavirus death toll rises above 32,000 to highest in Europe*

And part of the reason why we didn't head off the damage from the early warning we had from Italy is down to the cavalier actions of a careless buffoon:

*Scientists urged Boris Johnson to tell people to stop shaking hands the SAME DAY the PM was boasting he was still using the greeting on 'everybody' - and he later became infected with coronavirus*


----------



## John-H

New PPE ideas...


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## John-H

*"So, we are saying don't go to work, go to work. Don't take public transport, go to work. Don't go to work, stay indoors. If you can work from home, go to work, don't go to work. Go outside, don't go outside and then we will, or won't, err, something or other."*














The PM at one point actually said:
*
"What we are saying now is, 'You should stay at home if you can, but go to work if you must-if your job does not allow you.'"*

Please get in contact if you can provide a translation..


----------



## John-H

Gloves and masks are of little use to the general public. I saw someone entering a supermarket queue, pull out some latex gloves, turn them inside out and then put them to their mouth to inflate them before putting them on. If that person was infectious they could now infect everything they touch. I suspect the gloves had been used previously so they could have just infected themself too from their previous use.

Gloves can be a source of infection as can masks once contaminated and handled, especially if you bring them or your hands to your face.

Pockets, purses and wallets, bags, bag handles, packaging, car keys, your car door handles, steering wheel, phone and all surfaces you touch on your way home are vulnerable to surface transfer. A quarantine area at your home entrance for coat and shoe removal/sterilisation, three day storage (so the virus becomes inert) of non perishables or washing of items and disposal of packaging for more urgent items is advised - thinking all the time of what has come into contact with what.

Only medical grade FFP3 properly fitted and sealed respirators can filter the 60 nm to 140 nm size virus particles carried on exhaled water vapour which can be a similar size and all the way up to 10um. Normal dust masks and scarves allow this invisible water vapour straight through or it escapes through mm gaps around the poorly sealed edges (path of least resistance) and remain airborne for some distance before dispersing. Dust masks and scarves are mainly of use for catching much larger visible cough saliva droplets which fall rapidly to the floor anyway - hence the 2 m distance rule is just as effective for protection.

So a simple dust mask or scarf may protect someone sat next to you on a crowded tube train or bus from your coughing but not your breathing. Best keep away from such crowded places and keep your distance. In a confined space the exhaled air can build and increase the viral load.

Gloves only save you washing your hands if you dispose of them carefully without touching the outer surface with your fingers on removal. Re-use is clearly dangerous. You don't catch the virus through your skin so gloves don't add protection. An alcohol gel (+60% concentration) will decontaminate your hands when out and about or you could wait to wash your hands with soap and water and don't touch your face prior to this as that's how the virus can get in.

Gloves and masks can engender a false sense of security and people fiddle with them, take them off to talk and put them in their pocket which then becomes contaminated and re-use them etc, so they can rapidly become a source of infection transfer. Outside of a trained and controlled medical environment they are of little worth and can make things worse especially if people sourcing medical grade PPE take away availability from the medical profession.


----------



## ashfinlayson

The likelihood of catching or parsing the virus on through touch is very remote compared to inhaling droplets - otherwise we would all be infected from opening post or putting the online shopping away and the hospitals would be overwhelmed. Where you will get it will be in the supermarket because it will be circulated in the air conditioning and there is a lack of distancing due to all the twats that just want to nip back an isle because they forgot something.

Look at all the southeast asian countries, as soon as there is a health crisis, they turn off the aircon, open all the windows and wear masks. While wearing a scarf over your face will not prevent droplets escaping entirely like it would a p3 mask, it will slow them down and prevent them travelling as far.

The most effective measure anyone can take against the virus is to take a daily vitamin D supplement and get plenty of sunlight, it annoys me that that information isn't being peddled in the daily briefings.


----------



## John-H

The smaller particles hang in the air and you can walk into them but there is a thing about viral load which is to do with how many particles you need to become infected and although it's known there's a cut off below which you are likely to be Ok there's not enough research to know what this likely is. Certainly the worst would be in a confined space with a contaminated person for a long time - which is why public transport is an issue.

If your mask were trapping such particles it would also become heavily contaminated and handling it would be hazardous. The hardware store DIY FFP3 masks tend to have valves which let the air straight out unfiltered.

The lockdown has reduced the R number below 1 but relaxing the lockdown when nothing has changed (we still don't have a vaccine) is experimental.

I worry about restarting the schools especially with younger children who can't stick to social distancing rules and will then be returning to their families. As one teacher said, how can we decontaminate all the surfaces after each child? What can you do with a pile of Leggo?


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## ashfinlayson

Viral load I agree with however any cloth mask will make a significant reduction in transfer when combined with the 2 metre rule. I have a full face respirator for spraying and I would never go out to the supermarket in it because yes it would become heavily contaminated and I would look like daath vadar. A cloth mask and a pair of glasses is more than sufficient IMO.

I agree with you that reopening schools or nurseries is a ridiculous idea. While I appreciate that some people need them to get back to work full-time - My parents are desperate to see their grand daughter and they're not alone. So allowing the mixing of households with one other household would solve the childcare issue for a lot of families and improve moral greatly without as much of an impact on public health.


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## John-H

You can get a good idea how much breath is not trapped by a simple mask or scarf from people complaining that their glasses steam up!

We exhale about 90ml/h when walking I believe which is getting on for half a cup full - clearly it's not retained by any mask otherwise it would be dripping wet. It either escapes unfiltered or re-evaporates after filtration. Whilst every little helps the filtration needs to be FFP3 to hold back 99% of all particles 0.3 um and above (EN spec). You can see even FFP3 won't hold back 100% of the virus particles at a third of this size or less. So a simple piece of cloth far less.

This study is interesting citing evidence of filter efficiency of aerosols of 0.08 and 0.22 µm as low as 2% for home made cloth masks even if they do fit well: https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspec ... sound-data

*"In sum, cloth masks exhibit very low filter efficiency. Thus, even masks that fit well against the face will not prevent inhalation of small particles by the wearer or emission of small particles from the wearer."*

I suspect the government recommendation is more to do with giving the public confidence to use public transport and goto work.

You make a good point regarding grandchildren. A teacher was complaining that she can't visit hers but lots of other people's grandchildren will be coming into her classroom!


----------



## John-H

Hi Ash,

The vitamin D thing is an interesting one. People with dark skin are prone to low levels in our climate which may tie into observed infection rates.

There's one observational study for example that suggests you are 20 times more likely to develop COVID-19 if you have low levels of vitamin D but the observation did not record other factors like age and we don't know if the disease itself causes low levels of vitamin D which could explain the result.

There is a controlled trial going on at the moment to find out if it helps avoid infection and unlike some other medication ideas vitamin D is a safe supplement so long as you don't exceed the stated dose.

It's discussed in detail in the last item here on More or Less:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000j2r7

They also discuss a few more interesting things like the government's inaccurate testing data claims - did you know there are twice as many tests done than there are people tested? They also discuss social distancing and droplet size. Well worth a listen.


----------



## ashfinlayson

John-H said:


> Hi Ash,
> 
> The vitamin D thing is an interesting one. People with dark skin are prone to low levels in our climate which may tie into observed infection rates.
> 
> There's one observational study for example that suggests you are 20 times more likely to develop COVID-19 if you have low levels of vitamin D but the observation did not record other factors like age and we don't know if the disease itself causes low levels of vitamin D which could explain the result.
> 
> There is a controlled trial going on at the moment to find out if it helps avoid infection and unlike some other medication ideas vitamin D is a safe supplement so long as you don't exceed the stated dose.
> 
> It's discussed in detail in the last item here on More or Less:
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000j2r7
> 
> They also discuss a few more interesting things like the government's inaccurate testing data claims - did you know there are twice as many tests done than there are people tested? They also discuss social distancing and droplet size. Well worth a listen.


There have actually been many studies on Vitamin D deficiency now on large datasets in the tens of thousands in some cases and conducted in several countries providing concise data on it - The conclusion being that people with a significant Vitamin D deficiency are 10x more likely to die from Covid-19 than individuals with normal vitamin D levels. To add further weight to that - I have access to a few interesting spreadsheets on deaths and cases broken down by NHS Trust - London, Birmingham, Leeds hospitals saw 10x the death toll of all other NHS Trusts.


----------



## ashfinlayson

Dr John Campbell has done quite a few videos on vitamin D data, as of today Harvard are agreeing with him.


----------



## John-H

I don't know if you've listened to the More or Less link I posted but I watched your video and picked up the researcher from Harvard. So to summarise some key points from More or Less which may overlap your information:

Adrian Martineau, professor of respiratory infection in Queen Mary university London has co-authored a review of all the available vitamin D trial evidence and says that to date there have been 41 clinical trials involving 30,000 participants and when they are averaged together they show that you are 20% less likely to contract accute respiratory infection if you take a vitamin D suppliment.

Some listeners had written in about a x20 effect.

There are two studies that show you are 20 times more likely to end up in intensive care with COVID-19 if vitamin D deficient but they are "pre-print" studies not yet reviewed and are unlikely to pass review without substantial changes:

(1) Philapines trial last month with 200 patients showed 49 had mild symptoms and of those 47 had normal vitamin D levels. Out of 48 patients with critical symptoms only 2 had normal vitamin D levels. Other factors such as age were not recorded.

(2) Trial with 780 participants 19 times higher but the data compares dead patients with those still in hospital. Again no control for other factors - for example does the disease deplete your vitamin D and did they have normal levels prior?

Both studies were not clinical trials but "observational studies" i.e. vitamin D was measured and not administered. The lack of a control is an evidential problem meaning you can't scientifically draw firm conclusions.

None of the available evidence the programme concludes is enough for a reliable conclusion yet but Spain and France are conducting proper randomised trials soon to be completed to establish this and Adrian Martino is conducting a UK trial within the Queens University COVIDANCE study which you can join if over 16 details here: https://www.qmul.ac.uk/covidence/about- ... -uk-study/

The Harvard professor JoAnn E Manson referenced in your video is also interested in the possible links, cites some of the same study data and importantly is also conducting a randomised control trial to provide what would be acceptable evidence. She explains here: https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/930152

All are certainly interested but again it comes down to providing reliable evidence before it's accepted as fact which is always the way with these things.


----------



## John-H




----------



## John-H

Guidance
Coronavirus (COVID-19): admission and care of people in care homes:
https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... care-homes

This is the *current* advice still on the government website.



> 1. Admission of residents
> The care sector looks after many of the most vulnerable people in our society. In this pandemic, we appreciate that care home providers are first and foremost looking after the people in their care, and doing so while some of their staff are absent due to sickness or isolation requirements. As part of the national effort, the care sector also plays a vital role in accepting patients as they are discharged from hospital - both because recuperation is better in non-acute settings, and because hospitals need to have enough beds to treat acutely sick patients. Residents may also be admitted to a care home from a home setting. Some of these patients may have COVID-19, whether symptomatic or asymptomatic. *All of these patients can be safely cared for in a care home if this guidance is followed.*
> 
> If an individual has no COVID-19 symptoms or has tested positive for COVID-19 but is no longer showing symptoms and has completed their isolation period, then care should be provided as normal.
> The Hospital Discharge Service and staff will clarify with care homes the COVID-19 status of an individual and any COVID-19 symptoms, during the process of transfer from a hospital to the care home. Tests will primarily be given to:
> • all patients in critical care for pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) or flu like illness
> • all other patients requiring admission to hospital for pneumonia, ARDS or flu like illness
> • where an outbreak has occurred in a residential or care setting, for example long-term care facility or prisons.1
> *Negative tests are not required prior to transfers / admissions into the care home.*


So there we have it. The Prime Minister was quite wrong to claim that the government advice quoted by Keir Starmer which said that it was policy to send patients from hospital into care homes only applied to earlier in the pandemic when there was no transmission in the community. It's still current advice on their website today.


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## barry_m2

Patients who have tested positive for COVID-19 are not released from hospital until they have tested negative.


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## John-H

Not according to the advice on the website - It's there in bold.


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## ashfinlayson

The trouble is patients were discharged to care homes for their safety as much as to clear hospital beds, which is a reasonable course of action, after all they would be safer in a care home given that they're high risk and the epidemic was primarily in hospitals at the time.

The epidemic in care homes occurred because NHS trusts discharged patients told care homes that they had been tested when they hadn't, or they told care homes that patents had tested Covid positive _after_ dropping them off. This is a failing of individual NHS trusts, not the government.

But Boris has made a calculation, either expose the NHS (that the public and media are currently in love with) for their failings or passively take the wrap himself, which he has sort of done - although not well. The leftwing have an uproar every time he says or does anything anyway so he'll brush it under the carpet and be back to normal in no time.


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## barry_m2

John-H said:


> Not according to the advice on the website - It's there in bold.


Yes, true. But I'm not quoting from the/a web site, I'm telling you what happens before a patient can be discharged.


----------



## John-H

The problem was that care homes were seeded with patients who were Covid-19 positive some time ago in order to free up hospitals. They were not tested then as policy, care homes were not prepared and had not been getting adequate PPE, workers on zero hours contracts were told that if they isolated due to infection they wouldn't be paid and as a result 40% of the deaths have occurred in care homes. Instead of accepting the failure and learning from it constructively we get denial and comments defensive of political ideology which this should be beyond. Avoidance of blame seems more important than learning.

Look at the situation with public transport. People being forced back onto overcrowded trains and buses with no hope of social distancing. There's no attempt to control this it's a free for all. We know what happened there - the government briefed the press that lockdown was to be lifted and suddenly it was "hoorah" magic Monday back to work but then come Monday all that had changed was the dropping of the "stay at home" slogan to be replaced with an ambiguous "stay alert" with a psychological green for go border. When asked for clarification not a lot has changed - It's still stay at home if you can and keep your distance but the bigger momentum was the expectation driven by the press and if people get ill from overcrowded tubes the quieter clarification can be trotted out later as the government transferred responsibility to individuals and they didn't follow the advice. Sure there is a need to get the economy going but couldn't safety be enforced along the way with staff on trains enforcing distance and numbers? We don't have contact tracing up and running nor adequate testing capacity yet.

We also have a looming problem with schools starting up again despite recent evidence that children can carry the disease the same as adults.

The transmission has been slowed and deaths are decreasing to an extent but that's only because of the lock down. Now the lock down is being relaxed but nothing else has changed - we still don't have s vaccine, effective treatment or other preventative measures. So what's likely to happen?

In 1918 there was a second wave from the flu pandemic when precautions were relaxed which killed more than the first wave.

Learning from past experience should not be overlooked and those pointing it out should be heeded.


----------



## Iceblue

Most of the second wave was spread by troops returning from the first world war. Different circumstances completely particularly having regard to the higher standards of general hygiene that exists across the world now. Tracing and testing are the way forward.


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## John-H

Yes it was a different situation and the virus was spread by returning troops moving from one country to another true but with modern international travel it's already in most countries and the virus can also be spread by coming out of lockdown and spread within a country. Which is worse?

The second wave was also a mutated strain more deadly than the first to be fair but then there was also a third wave made worse by people coming out of lock down too early:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.thegua ... 8-pandemic

Of course, we know a lot more now. We couldn't even see viruses with microscopes until the 1930's and cloth masks don't stop the virus but a lock down does. Certainly yes, it would be sensible to have test, track and isolate up and running before releasing the lockdown.


----------



## John-H

Although this is rare it is tragic:

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/b ... i-22039416


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## skella45

[smiley=bigcry.gif]


----------



## roddy

where is Bob ,, i hope he is well,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, the most tragic thing is the miss managment by Blow job johnstone and his cohorts ,, i hope the people who voted for the tory scum are feeling some responsibility and some ( much ) guilt for what they have brought upon this nation and particularly their aged peoples, someones fathers / mothers , grand parents .


----------



## ross_cj250

roddy said:


> where is Bob ,, i hope he is well,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, the most tragic thing is the miss managment by Blow job johnstone and his cohorts ,, i hope the people who voted for the tory scum are feeling some responsibility and some ( much ) guilt for what they have brought upon this nation and particularly their aged peoples, someones fathers / mothers , grand parents .


Yeah, 'cuase Jeremy Corbyn would be doing soooo much better! :lol:

Regards
Ross (not feeling too guilty!)


----------



## John-H

He cares more about people than the blonde buffoon who went round shaking hands with everybody. I don't think it could be worse than this:










The timeline catalogue of disaster is quite shocking and the government was obviously lying when Matt Hancock claimed the "protective ring" was put in place for care homes "right from the start". It wasn't. Not until the peak of deaths did they start testing all hospital discharges intro care homes as you can see in the graph.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/52674073?


----------



## carlsicesilverTT

ross_cj250 said:


> roddy said:
> 
> 
> 
> where is Bob ,, i hope he is well,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, the most tragic thing is the miss managment by Blow job johnstone and his cohorts ,, i hope the people who voted for the tory scum are feeling some responsibility and some ( much ) guilt for what they have brought upon this nation and particularly their aged peoples, someones fathers / mothers , grand parents .
> 
> 
> 
> Yeah, 'cuase Jeremy Corbyn would be doing soooo much better! :lol:
Click to expand...

This argument is irrelevant I've heard all the clowns coming up with this statement - Corbyn is not PM so statement is irrelevant.


----------



## barry_m2

Is this thread now just for government bashing?

It looks like it's purely being used to put across individuals political positions and beliefs?


----------



## leopard

It's never been any different.


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## barry_m2

leopard said:


> It's never been any different.


That's true. It's a shame as there have been some interesting posts, once you look past the derogatory comments towards a political party you don't agree with.


----------



## John-H

It is true that it has never been any different and that's hardly surprising. We have a government making monumental political decisions, an opposition holding them to account over a crisis which is their job, and everybody can see what's going on and are subject to the consequences. So nobody can reasonably expect everyone to speak impartially as if they are BBC newsreaders. The facts are plain and those making decisions can only expect judgement from people whether they voted for them or not.


----------



## LVS

This is an interesting article documenting the origins of the 'lockdown' concept

https://www.aier.org/article/the-2006-o ... down-idea/


----------



## barry_m2

This made me chuckle. It's funny how people are so easily influenced by the media, as you see comments all over social media akin to those below, and indeed when the press are questioning the government in their daily briefing.

So far from what I've seen without needing to look through the media's rose tinted glasses, the government have done an amazing job.


----------



## John-H

barry_m2 said:


> ... the government have done an amazing job.


I suppose if you use the number of deaths as a measure of amazingness it ranks quite highly. It's now the highest number in Europe. It's the second highest in the world. That's not success or apparent success. How on earth did it come to this?

The UK locked down the same day as Germany on the 23rd March but Germany locked down after only 86 deaths whereas the UK had by then waited until it reached 359 deaths despite seeing what was going on in Italy. If the UK had locked down a week earlier following the predictable exponential rise we would have seen only one quarter of our 35,000 deaths and been more like Germany's 8,000 and saved all those lives. We were too slow.


----------



## barry_m2

John-H said:


> barry_m2 said:
> 
> 
> 
> ... the government have done an amazing job.
> 
> 
> 
> I suppose if you use the number of deaths as a measure of amazingness it ranks quite highly. It's now the highest number in Europe. It's the second highest in the world. That's not success or apparent success. How on earth did it come to this?
> 
> The UK locked down the same day as Germany on the 23rd March but Germany locked down after only 86 deaths whereas the UK had by then waited until it reached 359 deaths despite seeing what was going on in Italy. If the UK had locked down a week earlier following the predictable exponential rise we would have seen only one quarter of our 35,000 deaths and been more like Germany's 8,000 and saved all those lives. We were too slow.
Click to expand...

Are all other countries numbers just hospital deaths, or all situations?

This virus is not going to go away. The majority of the population will get it in some form. Some worse than others, just like every other virus out there.

Comparing to other countries is pointless. There are too many variables involved meaning you cannot make a like for like comparison. And saying 'if we'd done something earlier' is pointless too. You can only share findings based on what you experience at the time, which all countries have been doing and making judgements based on this.

You also need to consider how deaths are recorded. In the UK, death certificates show covid-19 if you tested positive, it doesn't mean it was the cause of death, or had anything to do with the death, just that person was positive.

The media have done a great job spinning it to make it sound way worse than it actually is. All the deaths are sad, yes. But you need to understand that the vast majority of these people are very ill in the first place. Even catching something as simple as the common cold could kill.


----------



## John-H

I disagree that it's pointless to compare to other countries. The government were very happy to do so, showing lots of slides every week claiming relative UK success . . . until with delayed but relentless mathematical exponential rise our death rtoll rapidly caught up and overtook everybody else, whereupon, strangely, the government suddenly dropped presenting such slides and when asked why, claimed that comparisons were pointless . . . but they had previously been making them! . . . when it suited. Now it doesn't of course.

Deaths are not a pointless comparison and unlike the number of infected people which is difficult to know if not enough people are being tested (the UK has never met it's claimed 100k target and still hasn't), deaths are more obvious.

The fact that we waited until the number was too high before imposing lockdown mathematically means we end up with more deaths. Had we imposed lock down at 1/4 the number we would have peaked at 1/4 the eventual total with all things being equal and without even comparing to other countries. The ratios are the same. The comparison between countries is an illustrative number coincidence to Germany but the real comparison is to accept that they acted when the number was 1/4 the number we did which rode through with them over the same period of delayed exponential rise.

We were numerically a week too late and have four times the deaths as a result which we could have avoided. It's a predictable mathematical result which can't be dismissed.


----------



## barry_m2

You're well within your right to disagree, it doesn't mean your view is correct.

I believe your views are also politically motivated.

You need to remember this is a virus, it's not going to go away. It will infect the majority of people, it's just happened quicker in the UK than is has in other countries (which again is down to so many different variables). The other countries deaths will go up, just at a slower rate, over a longer period of time. It's about control.

The mainstream media, twitter, facebook... it's not the place to get info from.

We could disagee for ever on this. 

So tell me, Australia have just been hit with a tarrif of 80% on Barly imports by China, after they pushed for an inquiry into Covid-19. Does this highlight their guilt? [smiley=gossip.gif]


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## John-H

You don't seem to be acknowledging the maths and trying to change the subject. Is that because of political motivation?

If you seed an exponential rise over a set number of days with a bigger number to start with you will get a proportionately bigger end result. Show me where that is not correct.

By imposing the lock down when the number is higher given the same exponential rate you will end up with more deaths. It doesn't happen quicker here, we were just too slow to impose the lock down. There's no way it's incorrect or a matter of opinion or politics. It's a demonstrable fact.

Oh and as long as we stay in lock down and keep R below 1 then we won't get exponential rise again - the rate of new infections will be very slow so thankfully it won't be inevitable that 80% of people will get it and hopefully we'll get a vaccine.


----------



## barry_m2

John-H said:


> You don't seem to be acknowledging the maths and trying to change the subject. Is that because of political motivation?


 :lol:


----------



## Iceblue

Maths - The Covid modelling has been proved to be wrong John as it over estimated the virus impacts significantly. Just like a lot of the other modelling you believe in.

You have also missed Barrys point. The mistakes of your government were largely caused by China's misrepresentation that there was no human to human transmission and the WHO's failure/bias in declaring a pandemic two weeks after it was obvious. So as Barry says, you should not be sucked in by your media's confected attempt to critisise your government at every step, but rather China's ongoing misbehavior by bullying of countries for trying to call them to account and to ensure this does not happen again.


----------



## LVS

It was the models and the media panic attack that led to lockdowns in the first place.

Comparing one country to another is pointless as there are too many variables. In USA, some states did not lockdown at all and had similar death rates to states that did a full lockdown.

The lockdowns and the media-induced fear kept people away from hospitals which meant that other health issues were not addressed. This has almost certainly led to more deaths that could have been avoided.

We are also just coming out of the regular flu season, which has led to some deaths being incorrectly attributed to COVID.

Numbers are being falsely inflated, likely by leaders hoping for justification for the lockdown. Colorado just lowered their numbers by 23% following legal challenges after they categorized one mans death due to COVID when he had a blood/alcohol level of .55

The biggest loss of life is in care homes, people sharing the same space for prolonged periods of time was driving the spread.
People in care homes are sick, that's why they are in care homes, they are susceptible to disease due to other illnesses and perhaps a low level of vitamin D.


----------



## John-H

Iceblue said:


> Maths - The Covid modelling has been proved to be wrong John as it over estimated the virus impacts significantly. Just like a lot of the other modelling you believe in.
> 
> You have also missed Barrys point. The mistakes of your government were largely caused by China's misrepresentation that there was no human to human transmission and the WHO's failure/bias in declaring a pandemic two weeks after it was obvious. So as Barry says, you should not be sucked in by your media's confected attempt to critisise your government at every step, but rather China's ongoing misbehavior by bullying of countries for trying to call them to account and to ensure this does not happen again.


What a load of dingo's kidney! :lol:

You are both missing my point. Firstly, it's not covid modeling it's more of an analogue of the real UK trend. It's a multiplier. You don't have to model it. It is what it is. The numbers went from 359 to 35,000 that's an increase during the real life exponential rise of about 100. If we had locked down at 89 instead, then given the same real life exponential rise over the same period we get:

89 x 100 = 8,900

It's simple maths.

The other point you make trying to blame China for fooling the UK government that it wasn't transferable is a ludacrous point.

We knew well in advance of lock down that it was contagious because people were dying. We could see China struggling, what was happening in Italy etc and yet we waited until we got up to 359.

Germany could see the same as us and triggered their lock down at 89. They were quicker to take it seriously.

So you are claiming we were fooled by China but obviously Germany weren't as easily fooled? Ridiculous. We were simply too slow to realise the significance which was there for all to see in other countries. We wasted our advance warning. It was a failure of leadership. Even the public were self locking own before the UK government made it official. Sports organisers were canceling their own fixtures before the government caught up. The government were even slow to close pubs - advising people not to go before actually closing them. They were playing catch up - despite the obvious rise in deaths.

Had we acted even a week earlier we could have saved all those lives. But no we had been musing about herd immunity and our PM was recklessly shaking hands and infecting his cabinet, attending Cheltnam races, going on Holliday and failing to attend COBRA meetings.


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## leopard

John-H said:


> Had we acted even a week earlier we could have saved all those lives.


Complete nonsensical comment.

Where's your proof that a week would have saved all those lives ?


----------



## John-H

leopard said:


> John-H said:
> 
> 
> 
> Had we acted even a week earlier we could have saved all those lives.
> 
> 
> 
> Complete nonsensical comment.
> 
> Where's your proof that a week would have saved all those lives ?
Click to expand...

March 17th we had 81 deaths March 23rd 359 deaths. Follow the curve and offset it back by the number seeding the same curve. The curve defines the multiplication. Start with a smaller number you get a proportionately smaller end result with the same multiplication factor.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

That's why it's important to act quickly with exponential growth and get R below one so it reverts to exponential decay.


----------



## leopard

It still doesn't proove that a week prior to taking action would have saved the amount of lives you state. 
The virus was well in the process of doing it's work before anybody knew what was going on. Your explanation is analogous to having a crystal ball and a 'told you so' mentality.


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## John-H

No it's likely. Did you look at the death graph and click the log function? The graph is a straight line at the start so you can reliably seed a different number and the graph itself is a true record of the growth multiplier over the period. n x f = X, 2n x f = 2X very simple. Have a listen to More or Less for a more full explanation:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000j949


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## leopard

Translation from Greek = 'BBB'


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## barry_m2

Hardly a surprise...

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.stan ... html%3famp


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## Iceblue

John-H said:


> What a load of dingo's kidney!


Quite like that 

Also just read somewhere that there is no statistical correlation between the effect on the overall death rate relative to the different countries lock down strategies. So put that in your Lord Lucan pipe and smoke it


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## John-H

Hitch Hiker's Guide. It's full of interesting phrases :wink:

You have a point and it ties in. If you compare Germany to the UK for example both death tolls went up by a factor of about 100 from the point of lock down before it brought R below 1 despite the differences.


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## John-H

Apparently the special one is going to make a statement this afternoon and take questions. It's good that the real Prime Minister is going to make an appearance. We only had the pretend one yesterday.


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## ashfinlayson

It's not the special _one_ though is it John, look at the press breaking lockdown to ask Cummings why he broke lockdown, the irony is laughable.


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## John-H

When was that photograph taken? The EXIF data seems to indicate 2012. That can't be right. I was wondering why they were all wearing coats.

This one was taken when he complained on camera and waved a ball at photographers:










Whether the press stick to suicidal distancing rules is not the issue however. They aren't the government and don't make the rules and it was hypocritical for him to make a point of complaining given what he had been doing and given his position.

The most amazing thing was that a SpAd should hold a one hour press conference. Who is the most important one here? The PM spending so much political capital or this advisor charging it? He seems to have raised more questions than he answered and he needs a safer way to test his eyesight.


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## ashfinlayson

You can't really trust metadata on uploads, too much file manipulation has happened and some devices get funky with creation dates anyway, e.g. according to my mac everything I recorded on my zoom recorder last week has a creation date of aug 2011. but anyway, the picture shows some reporters wearing masks, I wonder if that was photoshopped or if there was a global pandemic in 2012? perhaps it's just cold on the underground? There are reporters wearing coats on some of the BBC footage outside his house too. But I completely disagree with you - if you are breaking the lockdown rules, you have no right or authority to criticise others for doing the same thing. Regardless of whether you're a government official, a reporter or school teacher etc. Breaking lockdown rules in order to harass an individual at their home is not key work eitherr, it is harassment.

I don't really care about Cummings as an individual, he's nothing to me and I won't judge him for action he takes to protect his own family. But let's just take a step back - The bloke is probably pulling off 18 hour days, most of the cabinet are off sick with covid, the pm is off sick with covid, his home is receiving death threats, him and his wife are ill and reckon they've got covid, his 3 yr old son spends a night in a&e and he has a relative die of covid, all in the same week! Give the guy a f$%king break.


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## John-H

I wonder if all the people who have made sacrifices to follow the rules, not seeing their loved ones, not being with them when they have died and missing their funerals should have been given a break?


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## barry_m2

What he did in the circumstances he had before him, had nothing to do with funerals, or seeing loved ones, or being with loved ones when they died.

In fact I believe he missed one of his own family members funerals because of 'lockdown'. Which would be the direct comparison.


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## John-H

It had everything to do with it. The rule was if you get ill, stay at home and isolate so you don't pass it onto anyone else so they don't get infected and possibly end up dead. Moist of the public took it seriously.


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## barry_m2

Neither of them had covid symptoms.

Arranging care for your child is totally different to going to a funeral. No comparison between them what so ever.


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## barry_m2

A comparable example would be this:

I wonder if all the people who made sacrifices to follow the rules and weren't able to go to loved ones funerals, saw their MP doing this, should they be allowed to do the same?

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/tahi ... 06676.html


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## John-H

barry_m2 said:


> Neither of them had covid symptoms.
> 
> Arranging care for your child is totally different to going to a funeral. No comparison between them what so ever.


I think you must have missed his explanation he gave that his wife had COVID-19 symptoms and because he thought that he was about to come down with it too, leaving neither of them to reliably care for the child, he elected not to arrange local support (he had family nearby and I'm sure government would have helped) but instead elected to drive his symptomatic wife and his infected self and child 270 miles to his elderly parents property in Durham.

She said he came down with it badly after she did in an article she subsequently wrote but didn't mention it was in Durham.

He explained the half hour trip from his parents' to Barnard Castle on Easter Sunday (his wife's birthday) as necessary in order to test his eyes because his vision had become impaired because of the virus.

You can imagine the conversation:

_"Really not sure if my eyes are up for driving, darling."

"I could drive?"

"No no, chuck the kid in the back and we'll test it out."

"I really can drive, darling."

"No no, it's your birthday. I'll drive us to the bluebell field, and if it gets too much, or if the lad needs a wee, we can stop by the riverbank and play in the woods for a bit. You know, just a normal, straightforward, eye test drive."_
(https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/do ... 32001.html)

The Prime Minister has backed him up claiming that he has had to wear glasses since becoming I'll.

Doctors say you can get temporary conjunctivitis but there is no known long term vision impairment from. COVID-19.

Something else has come to light. In Cummings' press conference he was asked about supporting herd immunity and he said, quite the contrary - he had specifically warned about "Corona virus" outbreaks from labs and the need for lock down in his blog a year ago.

Hee did write an article about pandemics a year ago but according to the internet archive the only mention of the phrase "Corona virus" had been subsequently added to the blog this year, the very day he came back from Durham after his recovery.


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## barry_m2

John-H said:


> barry_m2 said:
> 
> 
> 
> I think you must have missed his explanation he gave that his wife had COVID-19 symptoms and because he thought that he was about to come down with it too....
Click to expand...

I'm sure I heard that at the time of making the trip, neither of them were showing symptoms? Maybe I heard wrong. I'll check.

EDIT:

He's quoted as saying his wife 'fell ill'. No mention of covid-19 symptoms. I believe Michael Gove clarified this earlier today.






Forward to around 3:50. He confirmed she was NOT showing symptoms of the virus.


----------



## John-H

barry_m2 said:


> John-H said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> barry_m2 said:
> 
> 
> 
> I think you must have missed his explanation he gave that his wife had COVID-19 symptoms and because he thought that he was about to come down with it too....
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> I'm sure I heard that at the time of making the trip, neither of them were showing symptoms? Maybe I heard wrong. I'll check.
> 
> EDIT:
> 
> He's quoted as saying his wife 'fell ill'. No mention of covid-19 symptoms. I believe Michael Gove clarified this earlier today.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Forward to around 3:50. He confirmed she was NOT showing symptoms of the virus.
Click to expand...

Listen carefully. He was talking specifically about *going into work* on 27th March when his wife first became ill but didn't "at that time" suspect she had COVID-19. Had he thought "at that time" she had COVID-19 he shouldn't have gone into work - he should have immediately isolated.

It was later after returning home according to Cummings knowing medical advice and that the infection was at work he realised she likely had COVID-19, that he was likely to have it too and drove to Durham to isolate.

Throughout that interview Gove talks about them "isolating so not to infect others" - according to the guidelines. It's just that contrary to the guidelines he didn't stay at home to do it.

Obviously they thought they were infected on the long journey to Durham.

Cummings'wife Mary Wakefield wrote about it here and claimed she believed she had COVID-19 but implied lockdown for them happened in London (it didn't):
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/get ... larity/amp

BBC timeline here:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co ... s-52784290


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## John-H

We've had 30 Tory MPs now demanding his resignation and a Minister resigning over the issue.

71% of the public believe Cummings broke the rules.

Almost six in 10 believe he should resign, including almost half (46%) of Tories and 52% of Leavers. Even the rabid Brexiteer Mp Peter Bone wants him gone.

Boris Johnson's approval rating plummets 20 points to -1. I remember when Gordon Brown's reputation fell like that - he never recovered.

The Daily Mail AND the Guardian both agree he should go - that is politically significant and invokes a historical precedent that when they agree there's no point in fighting it.

Yet, Boris Johnson still backs him and the cabinet are trotting out the same rebuttals.

Matt Hancock has tonight agreed the government would review fines handed out by the police to families who were caught travelling during the lockdown for childcare reasons - given Cummings has redefined what's "acceptable".

This is unprecedented. One has to ask what is so special about the unelected special one that he is preserved at the government's and the country's expense? Who thinks he is so vital to the mission that he can't be replaced? What is the mission? Who holds power and to what end? What is going on at the heart of government?


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## ashfinlayson

Being physically barred from entering a hospital infection unit where your loved ones are dying is really quite different. I expect if people were dying at home by themselves, loved ones are probably breaking lockdown to be with them as is what happened in Italy.

I assume you don't have kids John, either that or your hateful far-left mindset has made you forget the natural instincts a parent has to protect their child.


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## ZephyR2

So what we really want to know is - what's the dirt he's holding over Boris, or the gov, that stops them giving him the push.


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## John-H

I do Ash. I've not seen my daughter for months and I won't go further but suffice to say we have made sacrifices. I find your remark uncalled for and becoming personal. Don't go there. Plenty of people have made choices not to see their relatives when they are ill because of the lock down when they had the choice before they became hospitalised. Plenty of people have avoided friends and family for the public good. You have only to listen to the radio, TV and read the papers to hear a plethora of examples and outrage.

Talk about politics and general. That's fine. You describe my characterisation as far left. I would not describe me so. Have you not considered that I might be reacting in reflection and pointing to something I am concerned about? How would you like being described far right? Do you mirror me? Have a care.

I simply point out that remarkably Cummings would have been sacked long ago under any previous administration. The whole debacle, the press conference allowed about him, the concessions defence and preservation at political expense of the government and the Prime Minister is unprecedented. I ask why?


----------



## barry_m2

John-H said:


> We've had 30 Tory MPs now demanding his resignation and a Minister resigning over the issue.
> 
> 71% of the public believe Cummings broke the rules.
> 
> Almost six in 10 believe he should resign, including almost half (46%) of Tories and 52% of Leavers. Even the rabid Brexiteer Mp Peter Bone wants him gone.
> 
> Boris Johnson's approval rating plummets 20 points to -1. I remember when Gordon Brown's reputation fell like that - he never recovered.


71%, hilarious. I wonder who was asked, the Labour shadow cabinet any chance!! :lol:

Those figures mean absolute nothing.

Most of Twitter voted for Labour at the GE and look how that turned out :lol:


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## John-H

Yougov poll of public opinion.:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.scotsm ... 4948%3famp


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## barry_m2

John-H said:


> Yougov poll of public opinion.:
> https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.scotsm ... 4948%3famp


 :lol:


----------



## John-H

This might help. Bad language warning however:


----------



## John-H

Is Boris Johnson following the science? Two members of SAGE have now publicly commented that with the daily infection rate still at 8,000 and R still close to 1 it is too early to ease lock down.

We still don't have a fully functional track, trace and isolate system without a functioning mobile phone app and with inadequate numbers of volunteers to cover the numbers infected and still struggling to set up with the software. Critics say that this has all been recklessly brought forward to distract from the scandal caused by Dominic Cummings breaching lock down rules with the Prime Minister's support.

If people see this debacle as a slap in the public face from an out of touch elite that think they are above following the rules themselves it risks people questioning why they should follow the rules now. Rules which are now being relaxed opening up even more room for interpretation.

Downing Street admitted yesterday that the official coronavirus alert level remains at 4 - the second highest.

The revelation has raised questions as to why the Prime Minister has announced a significant easing of the lockdown from this Monday with people able to meet up outdoors in groups of six - something which was meant to happen when the alert was at level 3.

Mr Sunak insisted the Government was following the science and was not acting in a "reckless" way.

Greece has banned Britsh tourists from going on holiday there because of our poor coronavirus record.

The Greek Government has said it will accept tourists from 29 countries from June 15th but the UK has been barred until we get Covid-19 under control.

The UK has recorded with Spain the highest coronavirus death rate in the world, according to new analysis, which indicated that Prime Minister Boris Johnson's decision to lock down the country at a relatively late stage of the pandemic has significantly influenced the number of COVID-19 deaths in the UK.

The UK has registered 59,537 more deaths than usual since mid-March, which represents a death rate of 891 people per million. An analysis by the Financial Times showed that the figures mean the UK with Spain have the highest rates of death at this time of year of all other countries for which reliable data is available. The UK has the highest excess death toll in Europe and the second highest in the world behind the United States.










The timing of lockdowns relative to the spread of the virus had a significant effect on the total level of excess deaths, the data show.

Countries such as Germany and Norway, which imposed restrictions when the spread of the virus was limited, suffered much lower levels of additional deaths than those in the UK where the government waited longer before ordering a lockdown. This is especially telling given that we had the advantage of being forewarned as we could see what was happening in Italy.



















https://www.ft.com/content/6b4c784e-c25 ... 8ffde71bf0

This falls in line with previously posted analysis that had the UK locked down a week earlier we could have saved around 28,000 lives. The UK and Germany locked down at the same time but Germany had 81 deaths and the UK 359 at that point. Both death tolls increased x100 following predictable exponential growth leading to Germany with 8,000 deaths and the UK 36,000. If only we had locked down a week earlier when our death toll was 89.

Looking at all deaths

If you look at all deaths in a country, irrespective of cause, you will capture the deaths missed by lab testing, the misdiagnosed deaths and the deaths caused by the strain the virus puts on our society.

Of course, you'll capture the heart attacks and car accidents that might have happened anyway and other events like Peru suffering different disease outbreaks.

But the total number of deaths registered in a week normally follows a predictable pattern.

It has shot up since the end of March, running far higher than the previous weeks or what would be expected at this time of year. That number has fallen in recent weeks but we're still seeing more deaths than would be expected at this time of year.










If you notice, all the graphs have a little recent spike just visible - that tracks back to the last change when the government got the press to predict magic Monday lockdown lifting and then backtracked.

The death rate has only come down because of lock down. Relaxing lock down will only make it go up. Nothing has changed - we still don't have a vaccine or an effective treatment. With ONS figures of 7% national infection (17% in London) the pandemic still has a long way to go.

With our R rate still very close to 1 and the UK about to relax lockdown prematurely and open schools and shops before the track, trace and isolate system is due to be fully functional at the end of June, for the sake of just a few more weeks of lock down for politically decided reasons, we risk losing control and a second spike of excess death which will appear with a month delay by July.


----------



## John-H

https://www.euronews.com/2020/05/30/cor ... tists-warn?


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## John-H

Immunity may only last six months making herd immunity unachievable:

https://www.euronews.com/2020/05/25/cov ... -new-study?


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## Iceblue

C'mon John. Out from under the doona, stop panicking and get on that Brexit bus.

The science, again not settled, is trying to understand the virus which is obviously a crisis as is the economic crisis which forms part of this pandemic.There have been no second waves from those that have come out regardless of the left wing media describing the outbreaks in Singapore and Japan as second waves. If you look at the numbers there was no second wave just isolated outbreaks in transient parts of the community that were brought quickly under control. I know you guys have had the worst from this virus but you are over the hump and your hospitals are in a much better position to deal with outbreaks when they occur, which they will. You now have to deal with the economic crisis which will only worsen exponentially the longer you remain in lock down.


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## John-H

I listen to the science not the biased and emotional optimism coming from government and their political supporters and donors. They need holding to account.

With an infection rate running so high by the time you notice R increasing you will also have a large unavoidable death rate coming through.

It needs to be a lot lower so the tracking, tracing and isolation can work to contain it. If the numbers go up it's too big to deal with so the only option is lock down again.

The other countries successfully releasing lock down avoid a second wave by having lower numbers and a working tracing system to deal with it.


----------



## SamDorey

I must admit our government in Guernsey Channel Islands have been amazing with the Covid pandemic. We're currently in phase 4 of lockdown which is starting to feel back to normality. There's some places opening which I don't agree with thing like pubs etc. We're still keeping 2m distance, Sanitizers before entering shops, but again the government has been amazing.

We're expecting a second wave once the boarders open again but that's bound to happen.


----------



## John-H

Downing Street today admitted we are still at coronavirus "alert level" 4 - which it has been since the very start of the lockdown on March 23.

The alert, set by a new Joint Biosecurity Centre, means Covid-19 is still "in general circulation" and "transmission is high or rising exponentially".

This is a more detailed graph of excess deaths - I'm concerned about the late upturn - time will tell.










On Thursday, The Chief Medical Officer and Chief Scientific Adviser, Chris Witty & Sir Patrick Vallance, refused to comment on Dominic Cummings' actions or their implications for public health. It was read by many commentators as them either being silenced, or their refusal to support Cummings. Their discomfort was clear. Also on Thursday, the *'Independent SAGE'* groups published a report saying the Government was unwise to open schools.

On Friday, there was a rebellion by three members of (real) SAGE, Sir Jeremy Farrar, Professor John Edmunds and Professor Peter Horby, who all said they believed the government was easing lockdown and opening schools too soon. John Edmunds said the government decision was "political".

On Saturday, the Chief Medical Officer of England, Johnathan Van-Tam, said he was "quite happy" to answer the question of Cummings: "In my opinion the rules are clear and they have always been clear," he said. "In my opinion they are for the benefit of all. In my opinion they apply to all." He warned that the coronavirus was like a "coiled spring".

Then on Sunday, the Observer front page ran "Top scientists: Cummings has broken trust in Covid policy" and it carried a letter entitled "Dominic Cummings' actions damage public trust". Also on Sunday, the Association of Directors of Public Health took the extraordinary step of "calling for full implementation of all Phase 2 measures to be delayed until further consideration of the ongoing trends..."

This made me laugh especially the Michael Gove comment ...










And this is almost as nuts as Jacob Rees-Mogg's last idea of encasing MPs in perspex:

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/ ... e-22119390?


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## barry_m2

Witty and Vallance stated they were not politicians, and had no interest in the political side of it. Hence why they did not comment. There was no discomfort.

Independent Sage is NOT Sage, it's a separate rival group setup because they don't agree with what the other scientists are saying, the government have no affiliation with, or take any advice from Independent Sage.

SAGE (the real one) are more than happy to allow schools to re-open.


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## John-H

So? The scientists in independent SAGE are still scientists and many have worked in advisory rolls for government. All you are saying is that some scientists don't agree with others but you are not acknowledging that several significant (epidemiologists etc) members of the real SAGE have also spoken out to say they don't agree with releasing lock down so early and say the decision is a political one being imposed upon them. It's more difficult for them to speak out as civil servants and is certainly uncomfortable I'd imagine. You certainly can't claim the government are scientifically correct. At best they are cherry picking. You have to admit they are taking a greater risk than if they waited for the numbers to come down. Then they would have had a more full scientific agreement that it was safe to do so. Reality will determine the outcome of course.


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## barry_m2

I'm not claiming anything. I wasn't acknowledging or denying anything either.


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## John-H

My mistake.


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## John-H

Very interesting analysis of Dominic Cummings' statement to the press from the Downing Street Rose garden. It shows that it was drafted by a lawyer in the form of a witness statement to carefully avoid liability by ensuring unwitnessed claims to establish lawful cause match dated witnessed facts.


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## John-H

I see the government are making "face coverings" compulsory on public transport. The WHO do not endorse this.

Home made face coverings will only protect people from large visible spit particles such as from coughing. That's what social distancing does as spit falls to the floor within 2m.

Face coverings won't protect people from an infected person's breath which is invisible and too small to easily filter and floats about in a confined space such as a bus or train carriage.

Only an FFP3 medical grade respirator would provide some protection from the 100 nm size virus particles carried in exhaled breath.

As an illustration, cigarette smoke particles are bigger with the majority around 200 nm to 250 nm in size or more. Imagine a smoker in an enclosed space like a bus. The space would rapidly fill with smoke and everybody would smell it. Visible cigarette smoke demonstrates how breath spreads and lingers.

A home made cloth face covering or a DIY dust mask won't stop you smelling smoke. It will also let the virus particles straight through as they are even smaller.

We exhale invisible water vapour ranging from 10 nm to 10 um in size at the rate of a cup full or more per day. That water vapour transports the virus and can escape through gaps around masks and even if tight fitting, is not retained by any mask otherwise it would be dripping wet in no time - clearly water vapour passes straight through or re-evaporates. The question is does the filter trap the virus particles?

As stated, only an FFP3 respirator is effective and even then is not perfect. The FFP3 EN 149 specification is to filter 99% of particles of >300 nm in size. The virus ranges from 60 nm to 140 nm in size. Clearly some will get through and the longer you are breathing in other people's breath in an enclosed space the greater the chance of infection even with FFP3 filtration.

"Face coverings" on public transport are a means of giving confidence to encourage people to tightly pack trains and buses without social distancing. They prevent someone sneezing on your face but it's not safe because people breathe the same air in a confined space with or without a home made mask which is incapable of filtering virus particles and provides no protection from contaminated breath.


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## ZephyR2

I agree with what you say about the true effectiveness of masks and I have long thought the distance over which you can smell cigarette smoke is a good indicator of how far the virus could travel. 
The use of PPE has always been about compromises. Complete protection is usually impractical and prohibitively expensive so lesser control measures are adopted which give an acceptably small level of risk but are achievable in real life conditions. This has long been the case in many strictly controlled industries such as asbestos. 
So the use of face masks on public transport can only be regarded as a means of risk reduction, not risk elimination. The question is whether that level of risk is reduced to an acceptable level. 
The next question is - what is acceptable having regard to all of the other factors that affect people's livelihood and their need to use public transport.


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## John-H

Agreed. Asbestos is a good example of how the reduction of risk is a statistical exercise and can't be 100%. It's all around us from demolished buildings to slowly deteriorating garage roofs and used to be in brake linings. One fibre can kill you thirty years later but most are washed out of your lungs with other debris and it's more to do with the dose you receive and the statistical probability that the load it's too high to deal with either from a single event or cumulative.

Similar thing with being killed by smoking.

There's a similar infectious dose issue with this virus but it's not known what this is exactly, only that you are more at risk if more exposed.

Interesting then that the government's Track Trace and Isolate scheme sets the bar for exposure to an infected person at 15 minutes at 2 m with no time specified for face to face at under 1 m - that's considered enough for you to have to isolate.

I count myself fortunate not to have to use public transport or be in any enclosed space with others for any length of time. Shopping is done as little as possible and a quick in and out and everything washed or quarantined on return.


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## John-H

Going for a drink in a nice pub and have a curry are sorely missed at the moment and it would be good to share that moment with my daughter I've not been able to see since this all started.


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## ashfinlayson

Takeaway curry and a few cans in the Garden?


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## John-H

Too far away unfortunately 

I thought it would be useful to plot a graph of daily deaths against time on a linear scale referenced to key points in the lock-down timeline. The log graph of total deaths and cases was useful to show the flattening of the curve as the lock-down had an effect during the exponential rise reducing the gradient but being cumulative and now that R is close to 1 it's now not so useful being flat. One reason I've not updated it.

So here's a plot of the "daily deaths" on a linear scale to spot trends. This was rising when lock-down was introduced on 23rd March when the cumulative death toll had been allowed to rise to 359 (daily deaths = 54) and it took about three weeks to bring R below 1 and bring the exponential rise into exponential decay. The rate of decay was still close to 1 and so daily deaths have slowly been reducing at perhaps 80 per week (whilst the total exceeded 40,000) but instead of letting this slow daily reduction continue to near zero various elements of lock-down have been controversially lifted early by government or made less effective due to public reaction to events. Daily infections are still 9,400 according to the biggest King's College C-19 survey https://covid.joinzoe.com/.










Now we have to wait to see if the previous three week lock-down delay continues the daily death trend to zero or whether the easement or abandonment of lock-down measures causes the trend to rise again. Of course the virus could spontaneously evolve and die out which I'm sure we'd all want but reality as always will have its say.


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## John-H




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## roddy

ashfinlayson said:


> Being physically barred from entering a hospital infection unit where your loved ones are dying is really quite different. I expect if people were dying at home by themselves, loved ones are probably breaking lockdown to be with them as is what happened in Italy.
> 
> I assume you don't have kids John, either that or your hateful far-left mindset has made you forget the natural instincts a parent has to protect their child.


utterly disgracefull ,, shame upon you.


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## roddy

ashfinlayson said:


> Takeaway curry and a few cans in the Garden?


this lad clearly showing his class ( or lack of ) again .


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## roddy

seems that John has taken all credability in this thread ,,,,,,, where is Bob ? .. i do hope he has not been one of the unlucky .0001 % who have succumbed and for whom we are all in irons .


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## John-H




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## roddy

yep ,, its all over bar the shouting . 8)


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## ashfinlayson

roddy said:


> ashfinlayson said:
> 
> 
> 
> Takeaway curry and a few cans in the Garden?
> 
> 
> 
> this lad clearly showing his class ( or lack of ) again .
Click to expand...

What has having a takeaway in the garden with loved ones you haven't seen in 3 months got to do with class?


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## John-H




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## John-H

Some real good news at last:

Coronavirus: Dexamethasone proves first life-saving drug
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53061281

Cheap widely available drug saves 1/3 the lives of those on ventilators. In the trial, led by a team from Oxford University, about 2,000 hospital patients were given dexamethasone and compared with more than 4,000 who were not.

For patients on ventilators, it cut the risk of death from 40% to 28%.

For patients needing oxygen, it cut the risk of death from 25% to 20%.

Still keeping an eye on the death rate:


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## John-H

Today's latest U-turn. The Government admits it is ditching its previously promised "world beating" centralised contact tracing app that it was developing and trialling on the Isle of Wight. An app which the hapless and appless Matt Hancock said it would be our "duty" to download.

After a long period of the deadline being missed and things going quiet and lately downplaying its importance saying it would only be "the cherry on the cake" the government has now decided after all to use the Google/Apple developed API which is already up and running in many EU countries.

Our app, using the Google/Apple API is not now going to be ready until the winter.

Apparently the Google/Apple API works identifying contacts 99% of the time whereas the UK version being trialled was only detecting 75% of Android phones and 4% of Apple devices.

But it's good to U-turn. Our data was/is to be held on a cloud central database run by Palantir, founded by Silicon Valley billionaire and close Trump ally Peter Thiel, a data-mining firm best known for supporting the CIA's counterinsurgency and intelligence operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. To include:

_Name, personal email address, home address, home telephone numbers, emergency contact details, gender, nationality, place of birth, work contact details including phone, email, department, user ID, work location, employment details including job title, duties, manager, working hours, employee number, racial ethnic origin, political affiliations, religious beliefs, criminal offences._

This is known because under pressure, the UK government was forced to release NHS COVID data deals with big tech. You can read the released NHS contract details here: 
https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/under- ... -big-tech/

Palantir is being paid *£1* to run the service committing 45 engineers to the NHS contract fuelling speculation that it expects further work and NHS integration from this loss leader. And what is Faculty AI, a data science firm strongly linked to Dominic Cummings, doing at the heart of the UK's pandemic response?


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## John-H

The Joint Biosecurity Centre (JBC) has today reduced the alert level from 4 to 3. This is the the government's slide produced on May 11th:










Despite being at level 4 for some time the lock-down precautions had already been reducing. Now the level has caught up with the lock-down reduction progress. This can only increase pressure to reduce lock-down measures further. There is speculation that the 2 m social distancing rule will be reduced on 4th July.

However the R rate is still high:










The most cases ever were reported worldwide today by the WHO warning that the pandemic is entering a new and dangerous phase.

Uk daily death rate shows slow decline:










UK daily case rate leads the death rate by two weeks or so and shows persistence:










Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/


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## John-H




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## John-H

If this goes up we have a big problem. According to the ONS survey on the government's own figures 2/3 of infections are unknown and not being traced. The graph above is known cases and not all of them are providing contact information and without an app how do we warn the strangers on the bus?

Publicly, the government last stated the R was 0.7 to 0.9 on June 17. If R - short for the reproduction rate of the virus - is greater than 1, the epidemic is generally seen to be growing. If R is less than 1, the epidemic is shrinking.

But a copy of last Thursday's document, titled "COVID-19 Situation Report" and marked "OFFICIAL SENSITIVE", states that because of uncertainty in how accurate the figure is "we cannot preclude R being above 1" in England.

It adds that the rate is believed to have risen recently, and explains: "We believe that this is likely to be due to increasing mobility and mixing between households and in public and workplace settings."

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/ ... f5d4871f61

The image from Bournmouth today is not encouraging:


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## John-H




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## Iceblue

Better to be outside in the sun providing your social distancing. Those low angle shots of beaches have been used by various media trying to exagerate the look of a crowded beach. The virus does not last long when it is exposed to sunlight.


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## John-H

Low angle shots can exaggerate the close look that's true and it is outdoors so better ventilated but there were plenty of witness accounts of kids and others mingling and the accounts about toilets and other areas being used and the debris left behind was not pleasant and had to be cleaned up putting workers at risk.

There is a problem with psychology and mixed messaging. The government talk up lockdown being soon over and "independence day" etc but please take precautions - and everybody ignores the last bit and hears the bit they like the sound of.

Then you have the basic problem of people thinking, hey let's go to the beach! Then when a two hour drive turns into a three or four hour drive due to congestion they are already invested into the expedition and when they get there and find it's crammed it's too late to turn back and what the Hell everyone else thinks it's Ok so we will too - peer pressure to say nothing of disappointing the kids.

Perhaps it could have been predicted as was the weather.

Lockdown is being re-imposed in US states that quickly lifted it. We may have to do the same, possibly in regions.


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## Cloquera

Now the US new cases are spiking again because of the lack of leadership.


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## FNChaos

Cloquera said:


> Now the US new cases are spiking again because of the lack of leadership.


Unfortunately here in the US, wearing a mask, practicing social distancing, etc all have become political decisions rather than medical / safety decisions. If you want to show your support for 'Team Red' you don't take precautions. If you want to show support for "Team Blue' you do.

Predictably, states that didn't enforce distancing rules during the Memorial day holiday (May 25th) are now experiencing large spikes in COVID-19 cases.

As someone who works in the medical field, it is my opinion that doctors, nurses & support staff should be able to refuse treatment to anyone who 'flaunted' the rules and now requires treatment.

Over the last several months, medical providers have been over-worked and over-stressed. They risk their lives to help people and jeopardize the health of their families in the process. When it looked like there might be some 'light at the end of the tunnel' a bunch of knuckleheads insisted that it was their right to behave badly... violating others rights to remain healthy.

...and in some warped logic, these idiots believe their actions make them 'patriots' for demanding the "freedom" to do as they please, when in reality they have done nothing to help anyone but themselves.

MF'ers [smiley=furious3.gif]


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## John-H

Over here today has been billed for a while as "Super Saturday" or "Independence day" as the pubs, cinemas, b&b.s. and hairdressers open again, with the Prime Minister encouraging people to raise a pint and expecting "bustle" etc. but with a local lockdown being imposed on Leicester due to a spike in COVID-19 infections he's rolled back the encouragement and told people to be responsible but it's still gone ahead.

Undoubtedly infections will rise but now we will be reliant on contact tracing to spot and catch the hot spots and quickly suppress the spread with local lockdowns.

The rise in infections in Leicester was known for two weeks before a lock down was imposed however. Pillar 1 data (from NHS hospitals) only suggested 80 new cases in the area but the data from Pillar 2 testing (community based outsourced to accountancy firm Deloitte) for the same period was later revealed by Matt Hancock the Health Secretary to be 944 - hence the panic to lockdown.

This really isn't good enough and I hope they are going make changes to improve. Apparently the contract with Deloitte doesn't require or even prohibits them them from reporting to local authorities - so nobody knew. Also the data collected by Deloitte from testing is not much use for contact tracing either.

So we wait to see what happens over here.


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## Iceblue

FNChaos said:


> Cloquera said:
> 
> 
> 
> Now the US new cases are spiking again because of the lack of leadership.
> 
> 
> 
> Unfortunately here in the US, wearing a mask, practicing social distancing, etc all have become political decisions rather than medical / safety decisions. If you want to show your support for 'Team Red' you don't take precautions. If you want to show support for "Team Blue' you do.
> 
> Predictably, states that didn't enforce distancing rules during the Memorial day holiday (May 25th) are now experiencing large spikes in COVID-19 cases.
> 
> As someone who works in the medical field, it is my opinion that doctors, nurses & support staff should be able to refuse treatment to anyone who 'flaunted' the rules and now requires treatment.
> 
> Over the last several months, medical providers have been over-worked and over-stressed. They risk their lives to help people and jeopardize the health of their families in the process. When it looked like there might be some 'light at the end of the tunnel' a bunch of knuckleheads insisted that it was their right to behave badly... violating others rights to remain healthy.
> 
> ...and in some warped logic, these idiots believe their actions make them 'patriots' for demanding the "freedom" to do as they please, when in reality they have done nothing to help anyone but themselves.
> 
> MF'ers [smiley=furious3.gif]
Click to expand...

Assume you would direct the same sentiments to the Black Lives matter protesters as well who have flaunted the social distancing rules far more than a few freedom protests


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## FNChaos

Iceblue said:


> Assume you would direct the same sentiments to the Black Lives matter protesters as well who have flaunted the social distancing rules far more than a few freedom protests


Yes, I would apply the same standard. Diseases aren't political, they are opportunistic.

I fully expect to see outbreaks occurring in places where large groups of people gather (regardless of the reason), but you're talking apples to oranges here. This isn't BLM vs _"a few freedom protests"_, we are talking about entire states that have refused to follow our CDC's recommendations for phased reopening. The current spike occurring in the US was totally preventable with the worse outbreaks all are occurring in "Red" (conservative) states where leadership failed to enforce safety measures for (stupid) political reasons...

Cut from APNews.com https://apnews.com/0468a60b64947879926d2a16e45c00ee

_"Over the past two weeks, the percentage of positive tests has doubled in Georgia, Kansas, Montana, Michigan, Missouri, Tennessee, Mississippi, South Carolina and Ohio. In Nevada, it has tripled. In Idaho, it is five times higher.

In Texas, where new cases in the past two weeks have swelled from about 2,400 a day to almost 8,000 on Wednesday, the positive rate ballooned from 8% to 14.5%. In Arizona, it has gone from 5.7% to 10.3%."_

_*"If you can't be a good example, then you'll just have to be a horrible warning."*_― Catherine Aird


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## HOGG

FNChaos said:


> Diseases aren't political, they are opportunistic.


It's a virus not a disease....

Sent from my SM-G930F using Tapatalk


----------



## FNChaos

HOGG said:


> FNChaos said:
> 
> 
> 
> Diseases aren't political, they are opportunistic.
> 
> 
> 
> It's a virus not a disease....
Click to expand...

COVID-19 is an infectious disease caused by a virus.
The novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 (causes but) is not COVID-19

My statement is still coherent and grammatically correct.


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## John-H

The government have spent £190 billion on the Corona virus pandemic but how big is this?
Here's a good visualisation of government spending with the excess over budgeted indicated:


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## Iceblue

The chart is misleading if excludes the biggest cost.


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## John-H

Latest daily cases trend:










This is following confirmation by the ONS that England had the highest excess deaths in Europe. This has largely been attributed to time - the delay in applying lockdown seeding an exponential rise and a panic reaction of releasing patients back into care homes without testing as policy up until the middle of April in an effort to stop hospitals being overloaded. The Nightingale hospitals had the beds but did not have the staff so were largely cosmetic because the hospitals and all NHS staff were already working at full capacity.

The reason for delaying lock-down seems to have been a misplaced notion raised in March that people would become fatigued by lock-down if we went too early. No government department can produce any scientific evidence for this. SPI-B minutes from 4th March say there is no evidence but SAGE on 13th March allude to the notion without reference. The Nudge unit has been blamed for the notion but categorically deny being the source of any suggestion of proposing "behavioural fatigue". Lock-down occurred on 23rd March following a period of confusion where we were urged not to go to pubs but not compelled. We had the early advice about asymptomatic transmission but the precautionary principal seemed to have been abandoned waiting for proof of the need to arrive.

Tonight new lock-down restrictions have been announced in the North of England. The number of daily cases seems to be on the rise following a sustained period of continued infection where the fall from the high level had been halted by the easing of restrictions before the number of cases had fallen low enough to pre-lockdown levels. This is not a second wave but a continuation of the first.


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## roddy

SCOTLAND ,, 0 ( ZERO ) deaths for 16 days ,, 2 new cases today .. close the border .
( where is Bob )


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## John-H

Interesting that with so few cases in Scotland a recent outbreak in Aberdeen with 32 cases linked to a single pub, highlighted with an absence of background infection, that despite applying supposedly "Covid safe" practices the infection still happened and was traced to source. The precautions didn't work.

That's not so easy to show in England where there's so much background noise of infection. You are less sure how it's spread.

With recent increases in the North, meeting anyone you don't live with, inside a private home, is now a criminal offence in parts of Greater Manchester, Lancashire or West Yorkshire.

You can be fined £100 by police - doubling each time up to £3,200 for repeat offenders - and police can use "reasonable force" to remove you.

Yet while the law bans having lunch at your gran's house, or having sex with someone you don't live with in their home, going to the pub is technically allowed.

Call me cynical but I detect that at a pub you spend money but meeting people in their gardens you don't.


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## Iceblue

John-H said:


> or having sex with someone you don't live with in their home,


 I have to agree with you John that is ridiculous. We have a city that is completely locked down and with a curfew but they still allow you to spend time with your intimate partner whatever that means these days


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## FNChaos

Interesting read.
https://www.livescience.com/cat-coronavirus-drugs-treat-human-COVID-19.html

I wouldn't necessarily expect a direct human application of an experimental drug used to treat cats, but if the mechanism for deactivating a feline coronavirus is understood, then maybe a similar approach can be taken to create an effective Covid-19 cure?


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## John-H

That is interesting. Perhaps we'll need it soon with schools about to go back. Apparently the viral shedding of infected five year olds from throat swab tests is 10 to 100 times that of adults but they are not a primary transmission route because they don't have the opportunity to mix. I do wonder about the older children going to school and mixing however. They may not suffer if infected but how much will they spread and take it back home to elder family?


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## John-H




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## John-H




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## John-H

Some concerning facts:

The infection rate is now doubling every week. The biggest UK sampling survey has the R rate at 1.7.

Your chances of dying from COVID-19 once contracted is mainly determined by age. It's the biggest factor from the epidemiological evidence but it's perhaps not what most people realise. It's a very predictable exponential rise. The chances double for every six years of age - so someone aged 60 is 32 times more likely to die than a 30 year old. Which means a 60 year old should go to the shops 32 times less often than a 30 year old to maintain the same level of risk - all things being equal. Source: https://alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/


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## John-H

The Government has spent a staggering £5.5bn on PPE contracts. Shockingly, three of the biggest beneficiaries are companies specialising in pest control, a confectionery wholesaler, and an opaque family fund owned through a tax haven.

Why did the Government think these companies should be awarded these huge contracts? The Government is ignoring the usual rule that contracts should be published within 20 days.

The Government awarded a PPE contract worth £252 million to Ayanda Capital Limited, a 'family office' owned through a tax haven in Mauritius, with connections to Liz Truss.

In response to judicial review proceedings the Government has admitted that the 50 million FFP2 masks they purchased from Ayanda Capital - for a price calculated to be between £156m and £177m - "will not be used in the NHS" because "there was concern as to whether the[y]&#8230; provided an adequate fixing."

So, unless Government finds another use for, or seeks to sell, those unsuitable masks, that money has been wasted. And as for the remaining 150 million Type IIR masks purchased from Ayanda Capital? Government has admitted they also require further testing and have not been released for use in the NHS.

Another remarkable feature of the £252 million Ayanda contract is that Matt Hancock's lawyers have now admitted they planned to enter into that contract with a £100 company wholly owned by Liz Truss' adviser Andrew Mills and his wife. Mr Mills asked - and Government agreed - to enter into it with Ayanda instead because the £100 company (Prospermill Limited) didn't have "international payment infrastructure." Just how much has this arrangement prospered Mills?

At this point there were three sets of judicial review proceedings in relation to the procurement of PPE - with a pest controller, a confectioner, and Ayanda/Prospermill. Not one of those contracts has resulted in any PPE yet being released for use in the NHS. The entirety of the PPE delivered under these three contracts is either untested or has already been found to be unusable.

These are the facts - and they are not disputed.

We know from Treasury documents that Government has approved a staggering and unprecedented £15 billion for PPE procurement to protect frontline staff. But what we see is implausible counterparties, staggering sums of money, political connections, vast waste on duff product - and most of all a lack of transparency.

The law is clear, mandatory and unconditional: regulation 50 of the Public Contracts Regulations 2015 gives Government 30 days to publish details of contracts. But Government is routinely ignoring the law.

On 11 July, judicial review proceedings were issued against Michael Gove for awarding an £840,000 contract to long-time associates of his and Mr Dominic Cummings'. The proceedings claimed that Mr Gove had broken the law in bypassing the normal procurement rules, rules that exist to ensure fair competition and to guard against croney-ism and that that Mr Cummings and/or Mr Gove had acted with apparent bias, just as had his cabinet colleague Mr Jenrick.

But cronyism is not just related to PPE. How is it that Public First, long-time associates of Michael Gove and Dominic Cummings, have been awarded yet another contract, without any advertising or competitive tendering process?

Although Government cancelled A-Levels and GCSEs in mid-March, it was only in June that they contracted Public First to help Ofqual "secure public confidence in the strategy". We all know how well that assignment worked out! But on any view, there was time to run a procurement process before starting work - how can Ofqual justify sidestepping procurement law?

At this point we were aware of three contracts awarded to Public First. A river of public money is flowing into a business owned by close associates of the Prime Minister's Cabinet Office Minister and Chief Political Adviser - and all without any open, transparent tender process.

At this point the total value of contracts handed to Public First this year was over £1 million.

Public First is a small lobbying and research firm run by James Frayne, a Brexit ally of Mr Cummings, and Rachel Wolf, who co-wrote the 2019 Tory manifesto. Public First was based in Westminster's notorious Tufton Street - where a string of right wing lobbyists and think tanks have their headquarters.

Hanbury Strategy, which was co-founded by ex-Vote Leave director Paul Stephenson won two government contracts to research "public attitudes and behaviours in relation to" the pandemic.

The Cabinet Office also failed to publicise the contract within the mandatory 30-day period. It hired Hanbury on March 16, shortly before lockdown, and finalised a contract on June 30, a freedom of information request uncovered.

Stephensen worked alongside Dominic Cummings as the director of communications for the 2016 Vote Leave campaign. He founded Hanbury with Ameet Gill, a former strategist for David Cameron in Downing Street.

That makes Hanbury the fourth firm with connections to the Tory party to ascertain government contracts without having to compete for them.

Topman Guerin, which worked on the Tory Party's 2019 digital campaign strategy, was handed £3 million to work on coronavirus messaging.

Sources: https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/ ... c-22576452?

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-st ... -1-6826420


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## John-H




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## John-H

With the world beating privately outsourced test, track and trace system having problems with capacity (despite slowly rising), now causing days of delay for results and non availability of tests, we are in danger of losing grip of the true picture of the live spread of the virus. When tests are too old they become too late to use to prevent spread and might as well be disposed of to allow newer tests to at least be processed quickly and usefully.

It makes the "moonshot" - test everyone -idea - that the PM plugged, seem impossibly out of reach. It was slammed by experts - apart from using technology that doesn't exist yet, using materials that may not be available - there is also the issue of "false positives which nobody seems to be mentioning.

The purpose of such a test is to screen and isolate and provide a clean bill of health to allow mixing with no risk of spread so we can all get back to normal. But to achieve this the test is going to have to err on the side of caution and not ignore partial detection for fear of spread.

If the error rate is 10% and each of those falsely indicated cause 10 people to self isolate, then testing the whole population of 65 million will result in 6.5 million false positives and 65 million having to self isolate. Oops! That doesn't seem to achieve anything does it?

Still, not to worry, if you go on a grouse shoot you can mix with up to 30 people so it will still seem like normal - Grouse shoots are exempt from the rule of six.










Meanwhile under the question of have we got our priorities right a Corona virus testing centre in Kent is closed down to make way for a Brexit lorry park: https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/ ... e-22686693?


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## John-H

Coronavirus latest - Test and trace has been condemned as "barely functional" as its tsar, Dido Harding, admitted demand was up to four times capacity while 90% of tests were failing to hit the 24-hour turnaround target.

Incredibly she claimed that nobody foresaw or modeled that when schools resumed there would be an increase in demand - something which seems obvious. How will it cope when the winter flu season is with us which typically sees 500,000 infections per day?

Government claims that the test and trace system tests 300,000 per day are misleading. The government's own latest website *figures* admits they are testing 82,000 "people" with PCR swab tests per day (571,400 people newly tested in the week to 9 September - 82,000 per day) these PCR tests are the tests which indicate current infection. The larger number claimed includes people tested multiple times as part of trials or front line staff etc, antibody testing and the many tests lost or spoilt.

The Guardian reports seeing documents showing tracers taking up to two weeks to alert contacts of people diagnosed with Covid-19. Serco get paid regardless of results so there's no incentive to improve.

The Tories, and their private sector cronies, have failed on a massive scale when most needed. Jacob Rees Mogg described complaints of a shortage of tests as 'endless carping', but Test and Trace head Dido Harding admits that the system is up to four times under capacity.

Many headlines now say 'NHS Test and Trace' is in crisis. But you know this is not true. The NHS does not run the collapsing test system - the blame lies with Serco and the other private sub-contractors such as Deloitte and a government intent on privatised outsourcing contracts rather than using existing experienced local authorityand GP NHS public health network capacity.

Share to let everyone know that this is Serco's failure, not the NHS's:

https://r.ippl.es/serco/


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## bezzer

Nationwide restrictions announced today, pubs/bars/restaurants to close at 10pm, work from home when you can and further restrictions to be announced later today.

What a shambles.


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## John-H

(New infections per day as recorded by government test service teir 1 and 2)

New infections are now doubling approximately every seven days and only 8% of the population have so far been infected leaving 92% vulnerable. If the trajectory continues there could be 49,000 cases per day by October 13 and by the middle of November that could lead to more than 200 deaths a day. 6,000 people per day are now estimated to be getting the virus according to the ONS sampling survey and 7,536 daily according to C-19 Zoe Symptom study - and it is translating to a rise of people in hospital.










There is a rise in infections across all age groups.


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## John-H




----------



## LVS

I think the chart is missing some key data points.

Specifically, how many hospitalizations on the same axis along with numbers of tests being performed and how many are asymptomatic.

If they are doing PCR tests then how many cycles are they using? Anything over 30 cycles will produce a large number of false positives.


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## John-H

The hospitalisations are increasing at the same rate according to SAGE but the data set is less easy to come by. It was regularly reported when we had daily briefings.

I've attempted to offset the increase in number of tests but again the data set is not so easy to derive as the test numbers are being inflated by various factors such as people regularly being tested multiple times as front line workers etc. The number of new people tested is still only 82,000 as of week to 9th September not the 250,000 pillar 1 + 2 reported. It might be time to revert to the log scale.

The PCR false positive argument being put about is a red herring. The rate is very low, something like 0.04% but even if it was higher and increasing with the number of tests it would only be false with a random sample of an uninfected population i.e. if the virus was not spreading. The fact is the percentage of positives of current total testing is increasing which is indicative of increasing infection. The test is not becoming less accurate.










It looks as suspected for some time, that it's set to rapidly take off again. The government under political pressure started to release lockdown too early from when the shops and pubs opened before they had got infections down to a level which could be handled by the track and trace system which they have never got on top of. The test result and trace time has always taken too long, the app never materialised and even if available now won't be much use if the track and trace system isn't working quick enough or covering demand. It's too late now and we are entering the flu season.

The decline has reversed and now we are into exponential growth again with over 6,000 new cases today. The government are making the same mistakes as before - too little too late. The full lock-down worked before when everyone stayed at home but with their latest effort shutting the pubs slightly earlier, abandoning encouraging people back to work and cutting weddings from 30 to 15 - it's not going to make much difference because it's spread too far now and they are trying to protect the economy. I'm afraid we are going to see another full lockdown soon when they start to panic over the political pressure from the news reporting the spread of infection and overloaded hospitals. They will try and blame the public of course when in reality it's them that are not leading events but following them - the result of a combination of dithering, confusion, other priorities and a deadly virus.


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## thehof2012

John-H,

It's apparent that you truly care about the health and well-being of your fellow countryman. I wish in the States the viewpoint was seen as such, too.

I live in NW Iowa, specifically Sioux County, which has the highest positivity rate of COVID nearly in the entire US. We were past 15% positivity when I checked last. I've been working remotely 100% since March, we are masked whenever we're in public, and do our best to play our part in lowering the spread. Others in the area, sadly, not at all.

I have (2) kids in school (one in Preschool, one in 2nd grade) and neither are mandated to wear masks. It's simply a matter of time before everyone has it over here.

You've put a lot of information about what you're seeing in your location, and I just thought I'd throw my 2c in about your US neighbors. It's sad how we've "responded" to the virus, if you even want to call the US' actions a response. So terribly sad.

With how we've dealt with the virus, it doesn't matter if 10% or 50% or 90% of people take the proper precautions, because so many others already have it! We have people screaming we're taking liberties away by wearing masks... it's just insane.

I'm glad I can talk/share some sane viewpoints, and read sane thought processes here, it helps to take the stress off.... that is until I realize I'm here and you're there, and no one wants Americans to visit now! (with good reason!)


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## FNChaos

thehof2012 said:


> You've put a lot of information about what you're seeing in your location, and I just thought I'd throw my 2c in about your US neighbors. It's sad how we've "responded" to the virus, if you even want to call the US' actions a response. So terribly sad.
> 
> With how we've dealt with the virus, it doesn't matter if 10% or 50% or 90% of people take the proper precautions, because so many others already have it! We have people screaming we're taking liberties away by wearing masks... it's just insane.
> 
> I'm glad I can talk/share some sane viewpoints, and read sane thought processes here, it helps to take the stress off.... that is until I realize I'm here and you're there, and no one wants Americans to visit now! (with good reason!)


In a nutshell, 2020 is a Presidential election year for the US.

Prior to the Covid-19 pandemic, President Trump's best argument for re-election was, _"the economy is strong and unemployment is low"_. Of course that all changed once the disease started to spread...

Ever since, Pres. Trump has tried to downplay the severity of the crisis. With his poll numbers tanking, Trump has become more concerned with getting back 'on message' than protecting the people (which should be the primary responsibility of the President).

First he told us that COVID-19 was nothing, then it was treatable, the pandemic was beat, hydroxychloroquine was a 'miracle' drug, and recently that COVID is 99% harmless... all this to get businesses open and people back to work (regardless of the dangers)

Bob Woodward's recent book "Fear" details conversations he had with Pres Trump showing the President understood and acknowledged the risks but choose to downplayed it anyway. (For those that are too young to remember, Bob Woodward and Carl Bernstein helped bring down President Nixon during the Watergate scandal).

Right-wing media continues to promote the President's position (regardless of the facts) and Cult45 'parrots' what they hear. One only has to look back to the beginning of this thread to see examples (BobClive22 being a exemplary case).

Republican Governors chose to ignore the the advise of medical professionals in order to curry favor with our 'Dear Leader'. Blue and 'Purple' state Governors (who were more cautious) came under attack with Trump irresponsibly tweeting things like "LIBERATE MICHIGAN!" and the (not unexpected) protests that ensued.

Dr's Fauci and Birx have been sidelined with Trump sycophant Scott Atlas (who confuses 'herd immunity' with a 'survival of the fittest' eugenics program) becoming Trump's new Corona virus spokesperson.

Lifting restrictions prematurely and opening up public spaces 'might' have earned Red-State politicians points with the President, but the consequences are evident, a renewed spike in the infection rate and the needless deaths of 1000's. We have now exceeded 200k deaths in the US and countries around the world are banning Americans from visiting due to our inability (unwillingness, stupidity?) to control the spread of the disease.

#sad


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## thehof2012

Well said!


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## John-H

I think it's unworthy of those in office to allow their self and party political interest to trump the interests of public health and scientific understanding. Such people are not beneficial to the world. We've seen this on both sides of the Atlantic, whether directly contradicting expert advice or watering down necessary intervention to the point of ineffectiveness to keep their supporters and backers comfortable in their political beliefs. Whether that's over corona virus or climate change - the behaviour is the same; short sighted, divisive and damaging, led by events in chaos and disorder, rather than acting with understanding and effective prediction to the greater good - what might be termed leadership.

The virus has no political beliefs. It doesn't respect the principal of freedom to not wear a mask or to disrespect social distancing and mingle and it has no appreciation of pubs shutting an hour earlier. It simply progresses through the opportunity provided.

Reality will be the ultimate judge of our leaders. It's a pity the public has to learn the hard way.


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## Iceblue

Ahh Trump derangement syndrome. Come on fellas no need to be so partisan.

The US infection rate per million is well below the UK and many other western countries. Trump was one of the first to close the US borders with China as did Australia. Of course he was seen to be a racist at the time and the left started pushing a hug the Chinese promotion as a response. Talk about social distancing lol. All whilst the Chinese continued to allow its population to travel overseas whilst preventing domestic travel within its own country. They also convinced the WHO to state the there was no human to human transmission from Covid. Convenient misinformation to enssure the virus could get the necssary spread to become a pandemic.

Get over it, Trump did not cause the virus and has had little impact on the the various US states responses which as we all know, but seem forget, is the responsibility of the States and their respective Governors. They are the ones who have largely controlled what is going on in the front line.

Whilst Trump is unconventional and inappropraite in many areas, god help the US, & the world for the matter, if Joe Biden wins. The maxist BLM movement will be back on the streets, Hong Kong & Taiwan will be takeen over by China and their bullying of Australia and lack of accountability for Covid will remain unchallenged.

Trump is also the best option to get the economy going again which is now the real challenge for the world, unless of course you are an elite or public servant who seem to have been uneffected by the realities of lockdowns on businesses and peoples livelihoods.

BTW recent hydroxichloriquine & zinc results have been very promising so maybe he was right and it would be interesting to know how the fradulent results that made it to Lancet that poo pooed hydroxichloriquine & zinc came about. Sounds like some more Trump derangement syndrome which is now costing lives whilst this treatment could have been accepted by now by the various Gov Health bodies rather than being banned.


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## John-H

You missed out injecting yourself with disinfectant as a cure and telling us "it will all pass". That's all just what Trump says but if his interests are the problem and making the situation worse it doesn't really help to repeat his song book. What a load of dingo's kidney if you don't mind me saying. I kindly refer you to reality as the final arbiter.


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## FNChaos

Iceblue said:


> Get over it, Trump did not cause the virus and has had little impact on the the various US states responses which as we all know, but seem forget, is the responsibility of the States and their respective Governors. They are the ones who have largely controlled what is going on in the front line.


Trump did not cause the virus but as President, it was his responsibility to organize the response. As the sign on Former Pres Truman's desk once read, "*The Buck Stops Here"* .

It is absolutely the responsibility of the Federal Government. Departments like FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency) HHS (Health and Human Services) CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) are all Federal agencies.

Not surprisingly, Covid-19 entered the US mostly though our major ports of entry (i.e. New York, Seattle, San Francisco, Los Angeles) and spread quickly due to the population of those port cities.

Urban areas in the US tend to lean left and unfortunately, President Trump, (always at war with 'liberals') viewed the disease as a 'Blue State' problem. Rather than defend the people of the US against a common enemy he choose to withhold support for political gain.

'Blue State' Governors took action because the Federal Government failed to do it's job. And worse, they had to compete against each other for limited resources because there was no coordination at the Federal level.

Currently areas like NY and Washington State (under local leadership) have achieved reasonable success in the fight to reduce the spread of Covid-19. 'Red States' are now experiencing the brunt of the crisis due to Thump's lack of leadership.



Iceblue said:


> BTW recent hydroxichloriquine & zinc results have been very promising so maybe he was right and it would be interesting to know how the fradulent results that made it to Lancet that poo pooed hydroxichloriquine & zinc came about.


Total misreading / lack of understanding about Lancet's article concerning the use of hydroxichloriquine.

Lancet had to retract their publication because the results were based on _"an observational database assembled by medical data aggregation firm Surgisphere which claimed to have access to the medical records of nearly 100,000 COVID-19 patients treated in hundreds of hospitals across the globe"_.

When pressed, Surgisphere would not provide Lancet with access to the full data set claiming that it would violate patient confidentiality. Without the ability to perform peer-review, Lancet could no longer stand behind their paper and had to retract it. No one has provided evidence proving fraud on Lancet's part.

All that said, several other studies like the UK's RECOVERY study have also concluded that there is *"No clinical benefit from use of hydroxychloroquine in hospitalized patients with COVID-19"* 
(cut from https://www.recoverytrial.net/files/hcq-recovery-statement-050620-final-002.pdf)
supporting the Lancet study, and there has been little evidence since to prove otherwise.


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## StuartDB

I think Harry and Meghan telling America to vote for Biden. Has probably got Trump voted in again.
The US, like the UK tend to do the opposite of what they are told to do. Hence Brexit, Boris and Trump. And more recently the covid app

Will Americans really listen to a 'limey woke hypocrite' preaching about who they should vote for? Especially, after choosing wealth over morals, by taking Netflix cash at the same time as the are profiting from his father essentially shagging his baby sitter and mum having a mental breakdown and self-harming (bulimia) or maybe he'll fit right in...? 

I have to be honest most people are just tired if covid now... my wife hasn't left the house since March.

The mayor of Manchester is complaining that the government need to give them more money. My niece lives there and essentially no-one is wearing masks in Tescos etc so why are the police not fining them all £200 there are 2,700,000 people there so imagine if you fine 1,000,000 people a month. That's 200,000,000 and could pay for Marcus Rashford's dinner money for poor kids.


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## Iceblue

FNChaos said:


> Total misreading / lack of understanding about Lancet's article concerning the use of hydroxichloriquine.


Really. So how does Lancet justify its lack of due diligence in allowing anyone to publish on such a critical area during a pandemic. The article should have never been published, but the left controlled group allowed anything to stop Trump being proven right. As stated, Trump derangement syndrome is causing more unnecessary deaths due to the lefts politicisation of "everything". Look at John's stupid comment


Iceblue said:


> injecting yourself with disinfectant as a cure


. A comment again taken out of context as we discussed earlier in this thread.

As for President Trueman's well established comment, well unfortunately it does not really apply in the circumstances. Otherwise Trueman should have resigned the second after he agreed to allow the atomic bomb to be dropped on Hiroshima according to many on the left. I could quote a 100 instances of where this principal has not applied to democrat Presidents. To apply it selectively to centre right politicians does not wash I am afraid. The reality is China is responsible for the virus becoming a pandemic and understandably many world leaders have had to deal with this without a guidebook and have, and are continuing to make mistakes. Many of these mistakes have been caused by politicised reactions from both sides. Hydroxychloroquine/zinc treatments unfortunately are an example of this https://www.trialsitenews.com/more-evidence-for-hydroxychloroquine-as-a-life-saver-cnn-casts-doubts/


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## Iceblue

StuartDB said:


> I think Harry and Meghan telling America to vote for Biden. Has probably got Trump voted in again.


Agreed as with the many other derranged movie and rock stars. Most normal people do not take political guidance from an actor ,musician or other elite. Its hilarious that they think we should and be embarrased for not doing so.


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## John-H

Well documented comments are only "out of context" to those who inconveniently find them embarrassing to their cause in the context of the reality of the situation they appeared. Denying well documented reality is an an indication of a faith thing that denies objectivity. Arguments would be better presented without use of labels such as "the left" which immediately classify remarks as politically motivated rather than objective. It's blind faith in political doctrine to the point of denial of reality that causes much of the world's problems. Faithfully relying on and repeating the unsubstantiated medical claims of a president who is entirely unqualified to make them and when there is no substantiating peer reviewed evidence accepted by those who are qualified to make those judgements is another demonstration of an act of unobjective faith and quite a dangerous one.


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## Iceblue

I preferred a load of "dingo's kidney" :lol: Hope you are well BTW and good to see you are back and firing


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## John-H

Ah you are most welcome. Good to see you too. Stay safe as they say.


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## FNChaos

*Breaking news...*

Thursday Oct 1st, 2020 US President Trump reveled that his Communications Director, Hope Hicks tested positive for Covid-19 during a live interview with Fox News host Sean Hannity.

Today Oct 2nd, the President and First Lady were both determined to have contracted the virus. The President was given an experimental "polyclonal antibody" drug cocktail manufactured by Regeneron and then transferred to Walter Reed Military Medical Center for observation _'out of an abundance of caution'_. The President's current condition is reported to be good, suffering from fatigue w/ a low-grade fever

In a statement, Regeneron confirmed that it provided the president with the treatment after his physicians filed a _"compassionate use"_ request, a rare exception to the drug's use, which at this point is mainly confined to clinical trials.

_"In addition to the clinical trial supply and product being manufactured under an agreement with the U.S. government," the statement read, "there is limited product available for compassionate use requests that have been approved under rare, exceptional circumstances on a case-by-case basis."_
Compassionate-use requests allows for unapproved medicines to be used in patients with serious diseases who don't have other treatment options.

The President attended multiple fundraising rallies, including one in New Jersey Thursday evening despite the knowledge of Hick's condition. Contact tracing is ongoing and it is believed that Hope Hicks might have been contagious at the recent Presidential debates.

Additionally, Pres. Trump attended a Rose Garden ceremony to officially nominated Amy Coney Barrett to replace Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg on the Supreme Court. 
Utah's Senator Mike Lee, Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina and University of Notre Dame President Rev. John Jenkins were in attendance and all three have now tested positive.

Cut from the Wall Street Journal: https://www.wsj.com/articles/trumps-weight-age-gender-make-severe-covid-19-more-likely-11601660627

_"For those who do experience more severe disease, their symptoms often start out mild and worsen over time, typically within a week or so, infectious-disease experts say."

"The critical week is Oct. 7 or 8 to Oct. 15," said Daniel Griffin, chief of infectious-diseases at ProHealth Care New York.

"Vice President Mike Pence and Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden both tested negative for the virus Friday, but because it takes two days to two weeks for the virus to incubate and become detectable, they could still test positive within the next week or so."_

Vice President Mike Pence, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Sen. Chuck Grassley are all expected to isolate themselves from the President and his staff as part of a contingency plan to provide continuity of government should the President become incapacitated.

*Update*: Kellyanne Conway, a former top aide to President Trump, said in a tweet Friday she tested positive for the coronavirus - the latest person to have attended the White House event where Amy Coney Barrett was nominated to fill the open Supreme Court seat.

...story is ongoing


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## John-H




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## FNChaos

*Update 2 *

In addition to receiving Regeneron's experimental polyclonal antibody cocktail, President Trump is now being treated with Remdesivir.

Presumably, Pres Trump is receiving the best medical care possible and has access to the best medical professionals in the US. The decision to use these two treatments would tend to indicate that they are the best options currently available (neither one is considered a cure but 'may' be effective in reducing the symptoms / complications caused by Covid-19 ). Unfortunately this choice could be also be construed to indicate that a cure is not imminent... (Note: Hydroxychloroquine was not considered /snark)

Additionally, President Trump's campaign manager Bill Stepien has now tested positive for coronavirus as well as former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, both of which helped President Trump prepare for the first presidential debate that occurred last Tuesday Sept 29 2020.

*And this from AP News:* 
"President Donald Trump went through a _"very concerning"_ period Friday and the next 48 hours "will be critical" in his care as he battles the coronavirus at a hospital, White House chief of staff Mark Meadows said Saturday. Meadows' comments contradicted the rosy assessment of Trump's condition offered by his staff and doctors, who took pains not to reveal the president had received supplemental oxygen at the White House before his hospital admission.

"We're still not on a clear path yet to a full recovery," said a weary Meadows.

It was a dramatically different picture than the one painted by the White House staff since Trump revealed his diagnosis as well as by his doctors, who updated the public at a press conference at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center".
https://apnews.com/article/election...ns-campaigns-08fcfd3778ca3bbabd011307cf23dc8d


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## Iceblue

Agreed something is going on given the mixed message. Next 48 hrs will be critical


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## FNChaos

FWIW, found this interesting article on pandemic dispersion / super-spreader events:
This Overlooked Variable Is the Key to the Pandemic... It's not R. [smiley=book2.gif]


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## FNChaos

Iceblue said:


> Agreed something is going on given the mixed message. Next 48 hrs will be critical


Definite mixed messages. Doc says Pres. Trump 'may' go home as early as Monday, but then there is this...

Trump is receiving dexamethasone, a steroid usually given to patients with severe Covid-1
Quote _"Dexamethasone is generally reserved for patients who have serious disease. The National Institutes of Health's treatment guidelines for Covid-19 say dexamethasone should be used only in hospitalized patients who are on ventilators or who require supplemental oxygen, and specifically "recommends against using dexamethasone for the treatment of Covid-19 in patients who do not require supplemental oxygen."_

*In other news*
. Ex-N.J. Gov. Chris Christie now hospitalized citing concerns about his history with asthma.
. White House aide Nick Luna, who serves as a personal attendant to President Donald Trump has tested positive for coronavirus infection


----------



## Iceblue

FNChaos said:


> FWIW, found this interesting article on pandemic dispersion / super-spreader events:
> This Overlooked Variable Is the Key to the Pandemic... It's not R. [smiley=book2.gif]


Great article that underpins the new understandings that lockdowns are not necessarily the answer and that backward contact tracing is critical. This is not an unknown however as most jurisdictions have been prioritising this for a long time. I know we have in Australia with the exception of one State which has paid the price for its Governors incompetance. 680 deaths out of a total of 800 for the whole Australia came from poor policies and execution of quarantine and tracing by one State Governor and his ill prepared Administration. Interestingly it was a very left Labour Governor. Unlike America however, no one blames our Prime Minister for this as it was not his responsibility.

Perhaps more due diligence on what your State Governors are doing may help the US generally from adopting the newer research and taking less politicised decisions to be more effective in combating the virus.


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## John-H




----------



## FNChaos

Add White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany and her two deputies, Chad Gilmartin and Karoline Leavitt to the (growing) list of Covid-19 positive cases...

McEnany is the 11th WH official to test positive after attending an event at the Rose Garden last Saturday


----------



## StuartDB

Some looney leftie GP on radio 5 live the other day, said Scotland had an R rate of 6 at the start of the pandemic. 
If each cycle was 4 days that would mean over 326,000,000 would be infected after 40 days - Scotland has about 10m residents.. what an idiot... 6^10


----------



## StuartDB

Duplicates


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## FNChaos

StuartDB said:


> Some looney leftie GP on radio 5 live the other day, said Scotland had an R rate of 6 at the start of the pandemic.
> If each cycle was 4 days that would mean over 326,000,000 would be infected after 40 days - Scotland has about 10m residents.. what an idiot... 6^10


You are assuming a constant R rate of 6.... [smiley=dunce2.gif]

Found this: https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-modelling-epidemic-issue-no-15/

_"What the modeling tells us about the epidemic as a whole
Figure 1 shows how Rt has changed since February. Before the "stay at home" restrictions were put in place Rt was above 1, and most likely to have been *between 4 and 6* before any interventions were put in place."_










_"Source: Scottish Government modeled estimates using Imperial College model"_


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## StuartDB

Well even that would be a shed load... you cannot say it was an r of 6 for the first person, so 7 people are infected, it needs to be long term. So let's say 5 as that is between 4 and 6 and over 30 days assuming 4 day cycle. 5^8 is 390,000 people infected in Scotland between Feb and March then an r of 2 is 6 million by April.

That's everyone who lives in Scotland plus 500,000 people over the hill near Scottish Borders.


----------



## FNChaos

StuartDB said:


> Well even that would be a shed load... you cannot say it was an r of 6 for the first person, so 7 people are infected, it needs to be long term. So let's say 5 as that is between 4 and 6 and over 30 days assuming 4 day cycle. 5^8 is 390,000 people infected in Scotland between Feb and March then an r of 2 is 6 million by April.
> 
> That's everyone who lives in Scotland plus 500,000 people over the hill near Scottish Borders.


Again, lots of assumptions.

You assume an R0 of 5 for 30 days (Feb to Mar) but the first confirmed case of Covid-19 in Scotland occurred on Mar 1st. So your starting point is 1 not 390k

Even with a starting reproduction rate of 5, this was not a steady state, nor did it drop and plateau at 2. The infection rate dropped precipitously throughout March to an R0 <1 before April making it quite possible to start with an R0 of 6 without hitting the numbers you're projecting.


----------



## StuartDB

I am using your chart you uploaded?

the black line is mine.. that shows 17th Feb?










the fact of the matter is some people with bad maths stated something which they didn't understand, you cannot say the R is 20 because 1 person infected 20 people in a nightclub, those 20 people would also need to infect 20 people etc - it is just an anomaly.

it is like the Dan Brown Inferno - talking about reproduction of human beings accelerating.

lots of people dont realise that if a piece of paper was 1mm thick and you *could turn it over on itself 50 times it would reach the sun and back and back to the sun again.

2^49 = 5.6294995e+14

= 562949950000000mm
= 562949950000m
= 562,949,950km



> Earth orbits the sun 100,000 times closer than the Oort Cloud, at an average of 92,955,807 miles (149,597,870 km)


_*obviously you couldn't fold it over 50 times as the last fold will need a sheet of paper more than 1.2 billion km across_


----------



## John-H

The R rate is an average estimates at a particular time past based on lagging data. Things can change to affect it dynamically such as the reaction of people and governments. There's also the K dispersion factor as highlighted further up this thread.

I've been concerned for some time regarding the significance of airborne transmission from invisible aerosol in breath (10nm to 10µm in size) which can pass through and around simple cloth face coverings and hang around in the air like cigarette smoke. Interesting that this seems to be gaining credence: https://www.euronews.com/2020/10/06/cor ... ansmission


----------



## FNChaos

...another update from America:

President Trump returns to the White house against advice that he should have stayed at the hospital until he was no longer infectious or should remain confined to his residence.

Meanwhile, White House senior policy adviser and speechwriter Stephen Miller now tested positive as well as White House press aide Jalen Drummond

Adm Ray, vice-commandant of the US Coast Guard has also tested positive for Covid.
Nearly all members of the Joint Chiefs of Staff - a body consisting of senior military officials who advise the US president - are in quarantine after attending meetings with Adm Ray last week

In addition to the Joint Chiefs, those in quarantine are said to include the vice-chief of staff, army chief of staff, chief of naval operations, air force chief of staff, CyberCom commander, Space Force chief, chief of the National Guard and deputy commandant of the Marine Corps.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-54441986

This brings the number of known infected people working in and around the White House to at least 25.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/elanag...-for-covid-near-president-trump/#18c8280d799a

*Edit:* Make that *34* known infected people working in and around the White House. This includes Crede Bailey, head of the White House's security office who is reported to be in serious condition.... :?

https://thehill.com/homenews/admini...ks-34-coronavirus-cases-to-white-house-report
https://thehill.com/homenews/admini...fficial-reported-to-be-gravely-ill-with-covid


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## StuartDB

if Trump is really better after 3 or 4 days of treatment, it is going to make the NHS look like a poor mans alternative to proper treatment.

people dont stay in hospital when they are still infectious in the UK, thats why all the elderly died in care homes.

the premier league allow a positive test for coronavirus - it is only if it is over a certain "population" or whatever the term is, that they are not allowed to play.


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## Iceblue

FNChaos said:


> ...another update from America:
> 
> President Trump returns to the White house against advice that he should have stayed at the hospital until he was no longer infectious or should remain confined to his residence.
> 
> Meanwhile, White House senior policy adviser and speechwriter Stephen Miller now tested positive as well as White House press aide Jalen Drummond
> 
> Adm Ray, vice-commandant of the US Coast Guard has also tested positive for Covid.
> Nearly all members of the Joint Chiefs of Staff - a body consisting of senior military officials who advise the US president - are in quarantine after attending meetings with Adm Ray last week
> 
> In addition to the Joint Chiefs, those in quarantine are said to include the vice-chief of staff, army chief of staff, chief of naval operations, air force chief of staff, CyberCom commander, Space Force chief, chief of the National Guard and deputy commandant of the Marine Corps.
> 
> https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-54441986
> 
> This brings the number of known infected people working in and around the White House to at least 25.
> 
> https://www.forbes.com/sites/elanag...-for-covid-near-president-trump/#18c8280d799a
> 
> *Edit:* Make that *34* known infected people working in and around the White House. This includes Crede Bailey, head of the White House's security office who is reported to be in serious condition.... :?
> 
> https://thehill.com/homenews/admini...ks-34-coronavirus-cases-to-white-house-report
> https://thehill.com/homenews/admini...fficial-reported-to-be-gravely-ill-with-covid


The positive in all of this is that people are beginning to realise that Covid is not as bad as some would like to suggest, and we should not let it destroy our economies and should get on with a new normal where outbreaks will occurr and be dealt with swiftly. At the same time we know the avearge age of those that die with, or as a result of Covid, is over 81.4 in the UK, 82 in Australia and 84 I think in the US. And yes whilst all lives matter, we should open our economies and focus more on directing more efforts to protecting the elderly and those with co-morbidities.This is why the politisisation of Covid is dangerous as it creates unnecessary and ill founded fear in the community which has major economic and social consequences.


----------



## John-H

Are you wearing peril sensitive sunglasses that turn dark in the face of danger thus protecting you from experiencing stress and alarm?










_The Joo Janta 200 Super-Chromatic Peril Sensitive Sunglasses have been designed to help people develop a relaxed attitude to danger. They follow the principle "what you don't know can't hurt you" and turn completely dark and opaque at the first sign of danger. This prevents you from seeing anything that might alarm you. This does, however, mean that you see absolutely nothing, including where you're going.
_https://hitchhikers.fandom.com/wiki/Joo_Janta_200_Super-Chromatic_Peril_Sensitive_Sunglasses

The problem with Trump's message not to take the virus seriously because it suits him politically is that people will needlessly die as a result of it, indeed as might he, as he's not out of the woods yet despite being pumped up with experimental medication that is not generally available to anyone else.

The other problem with the argument to let the virus rip whilst protecting the vulnerable is that age is the single most significant determinant of risk across the population and older people don't live in isolation. They interact with younger people and can become infected and die as we saw in our care homes. There is also no hard cut off age above or below which you are or are not at risk.

From the morbidity data the risk doubles for every six years of age. It's a precise exponential relationship. A 12 year old is twice as likely to die than a six year old and a 60 year old is 32 times more likely to die than a 30 year old. You are also twice as likely to die being male rather than female.

Given that, how can you possibly draw a line to separate safe from vulnerable - you can't.

The only way to stop the virus without a vaccine and immunity is to stop human interaction. Unfortunately we have missed the boat again by doing too little too late. We should have gone into lock down sooner. We should have stayed in it longer to bring the virus numbers down to a level that could have been managed whilst expanding our tracing and isolating ability but we came out of lockdown and relaxed too early and encouraged mixing and it's inevitably got out of hand again. We've failed and now the system can't cope.

We are heading for a very difficult time with overloaded hospitals and further restrictions that will cost us a lot more now than had we acted earlier with more decisiveness and without politics getting in the way of rationality.


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## FNChaos

Iceblue said:


> The positive in all of this is that people are beginning to realise that Covid is not as bad as some would like to suggest, and we should not let it destroy our economies and should get on with a new normal where outbreaks will occurr and be dealt with swiftly.


There is a tendency for people to lose sight of how large something is once the scale gets big enough.

So to put some _'relatable_' perspective on the number of Covid deaths that have occurred in the US, consider how we might respond if a 9/11 attack happened every day for 71 days straight....

...or if people realized that more people have died from Covid19 than the combined US military death toll from WW1, Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq combined. (it is expected that more people will have died by the end of the year than the total number of American deaths in WWII).

&#8230; or maybe something closer to home, consider if every man, women and child in Salt Lake City UT, Norwich UK or Hobart AU were obliterated in a nuclear blast....

More than 213k dead (so far) yet people continue to behave badly. We are at war with a disease and our response is lacking. Our predecessors were asked (and stepped-up) to give much more when threatened by a common enemy. Now people are more concerned about their personal "freedom" to attend motorcycle rallies (i.e Sturgis) or college frat parties than to do what it takes as citizens and 'patriots' to get this under control.

I will also point out to younger readers that they might want to read up on MERS. 
MERS (Middle East respiratory syndrome) was / is another coronavirus that primarily attacked younger people. It turned a healthy person's own immunity response against itself (aka hypercytokinemia or Cytokine storm). Being young and healthy was a disadvantage as it made you more susceptible to dying.

Fortunately MERS was less contagious that Covid-19 and it was brought under control, but consider that we could be one mutation away from Covid-19 acting like MERS...

Coronavirii are RNA-based pathogens which (unlike DNA-based diseases) means they don't have a self-correcting mechanism to prevent mutations. (Average mutation rates in RNA viruses are estimated to be about 100 times higher than those for DNA viruses). Every infection (no matter how minor) is an opportunity to mutate. If you think you're safe and refuse to help in the fight because you're young, you may face a day of reckoning.


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## Iceblue

Again Chaos you are only focusing on the wrong statistic. The deaths per million is what is important as the larger your populatioin the more deaths you will have, unless of course you are China and you weld doors closed to stop the spread. Fortunately we don't agree with totalitarian regimes as freedom is more important than Covid particularly as Covid only adversly effects 1% of the population who contract it. It's basic math.

As stated before the US's death per million is well below many other western democracies.

Also if you look up the deaths from all causes in a normal year you will find there has been little change, so this 200,000 you keep quoting is actually well within normal as many of these people would have died from flu (flu rates are down significantly BTW) or their other co-mobitities.

So this idea we are all going to die before our time from Covid or its mutations is just fear mongering. Look at the positives and get on with it. There is no other way unfortunately, otherwise deaths from suicides and long term social dysfunction will far outweigh the 200,000 out of a population of 330,000,000 you keep quoting.


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## Iceblue

John-H said:


> Are you wearing peril sensitive sunglasses


No unfortunately but would love a pair please. I have my steely, blue eyes (_sic_) focused on the situation that currently confronts us very clearly. We are in the midst of a pandemic against a disease that adversly effects 1% of the population with a death rate significantly below other pandemics that effected the world such as spanish flu, the black plague, MErs, SAR's etc etc.

Rather than running around trying to blame people you don't agree with for this or that, and saying we are all going to die (that's the medias job) it would make you feel a lot better if you dig around for the real statistics that show we are getting on top of this thing. For example, the death rate for Covid is falling despite many more new infections. New medications and treatments are showing very encouraging results (Trump) and there are at least three drugs in third stage trials with a timetable of 12 months to release to the world. So we have two options. Shut everything down so as to minimise the already falling death rates over the short term or learn to live with this thing asap so we can limit the current and long term socio-economic impact that will effect our kids, their kids and the kids of their kids.

You don't need peril sensitive sunglasses to make a common sense decision here.


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## John-H

So, there's no increase in deaths over the norm and medication is proven to be so effective by use of a one man trial we have nothing to worry about and can all get back to normal.

I'm afraid I call dingo's kidney again :roll:

Firstly, you are making the mistake of singularly focusing on death rate from infection and completely ignoring the multiplying effect of the infection rate itself - the combination of which causes our hospitals to become overloaded and the corpses to pile up as were seen - there's the practical dis-proof of your claim for the reasons I'm stating.

MERS had a death rate of 34% and SARS around 14% (WHO) but they didn't spread as easily.

Corona virus(SARS-CoV- 2) has an R0 without intervention depending on which study you look at from when of anywhere between 2.5 and 7.5, say around 4 perhaps, whereas SARS is 1.7 to 1.9 and MERS was <1 (WHO). This variation illustrates the dependency of the history of intervention during the period of the disease.










But as indicated by the above graph it's not just R0 x death rate that's important. You also have the means of transmission and how easily this can be modified by human intervention to bring down R0. Transmission can for some diseases easily be spotted and brought under control (R<1). You also have the delay in the onset of symptoms which can hide the means and route of spread which effectively makes the virus go underground and you end up chasing your tail.

Conversely and dangerously, you also have a relaxation of preventative measures because of political pressure causing the whole thing to fire up again - as were seen. It's all far too easy to intervene, bring down infection rates and then for some people to get far too relaxed and start complaining there's no problem any more so let's go back to normal.

The problem with common sense is that it can easily be influenced by repeated political lies and misinformation from lobbying interests with influence. Reality will decide the truth however.

Finally, let's knock the idea on the head that people with co-morbidities and other issues would have died anyway in the normal course of events so we can dismiss "so called" COVID-19 deaths as being the cause. If I had diabetes and got run over by a bus I wouldn't go down as being killed by diabetes now would I? :roll:


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## Iceblue

John-H said:


> Finally, let's knock the idea on the head that people with co-morbidities and other issues would have died anyway in the normal course of events so we can dismiss "so called" COVID-19 deaths as being the cause. If I had diabetes and got run over by a bus I wouldn't go down as being killed by diabetes now would I?


Why, because it does not serve the purpose of scaremongering about Covid?

Facts are facts. Focusing on new infections when the death rate is falling will lead to poor decisions

BTW there is a well documented case of a motor bike rider who was in hospital and terminal who contracted Covid in hospital and was recorded as a Covid death. As far as I am aware that seems to be the policy of most hospitals throughout this pandemic.

This idea that the only way to deal with this is to have massive lockdowns will not work. The disease is too infectious for this. Look at New Zealand. They shut down everything for two months with an eradication strategy and were lauded by the left until it broke out again. The cost to New Zealand was a massive fall of 20% GDP. They have yet to recover from this and will pay the price down the track.


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## LVS

Regarding USA; 200,000 have NOT died _of_ COVID. According to CDC approximately 6% of this number have died _of_ COVID with no other known co-morbidities. The others have approx 2.5 other co-morbidities.

Much band-width has been spent comparing COVID with seasonal FLU. Ordinarily this would be a legitimate process but unfortunately, thanks to guidance from the CDC, this is not possible.

Many people die during FLU season, very few otherwise healthy people die of the FLU. They typically die of whatever co-morbidity that they have at the time, heart-disease, pneumonia, renal failure, diabetes etc. that are all exacerbated by the FLU. In these cases the death certificate will list the cause of death as 'heart-disease, pneumonia, renal failure, diabetes' and may (or may not) list the FLU as a secondary or contributing factor.

In USA, the CDC has instructed doctors to ALWAYS list COVID as the primary cause of death if they know (or even suspect) that the patient had COVID at the time of death or any time in the last few months. In the USA, the hospitals even get extra money if they have a COVID patient.

So if a person drops dead of a heart-attack on a golf course and also has COVID, then they list the virus as the cause of death. The virus did not kill the golfer, the heart attack did.... any other time their death would be listed as a heart-attack, now its COVID.

There is another agenda at work here, its nothing to do with a virus.

All these PCR tests are either grossly flawed or the the vast majority of those allegedly infected are asymptomatic. There is no viable evidence that asymptomatic people can spread the disease, so why bother testing? If a person passes a test they could get infected the next day. Its just pointless, it just spreads the fear.

Lockdowns don't work, and masks don't protect either the wearer, or anyone else.

If you think this virus is going to kill you, then stay indoors, cut yourself off from everyone and live your life in fear, pass that fear on to your children so they grow up psychologically damaged and unable to cope with reality.

The rest of us would like to get on with our lives.

History will not judge our leaders kindly with regards to this virus.


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## John-H

This is just repeating the histrionic misinformation trying to infer the pandemic is fake that's already been disproved as nonsense.

Why don't all the governments and health authorities hold the same view and protect the economy? Why are they going along with the idea that the pandemic is real?
Some international conspiracy theory perhaps?

If someone gets run over by a bus - that's what killed them. Not the co-morbidity. It's nonsense to suggest that there's some conspiracy or even unconscious bias to put down a "coincidental" COVID-19 infection as the cause of death when in actual fact it was an unrelated blood clot or heart failure. Do we think doctors are stupid and corrupt? They have to record a cause of death. They are professionals and will use their professional judgement not some political bias. If COVID-19 is the cause of death that will be recorded even if it is the cause of triggering a secondary failure because it was the cause. Lots of people have co-morbities but it's perverse to presume they were the cause at this moment and COVID-19 should be ignored. This is a real pandemic and it kills people. It's not coincidental and inconsequential.

In two weeks time when our hospitals are overloaded and headline news if no action is taken, try telling us again that this is all normal.


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## wsantos

There's plenty of evidence pointing to deaths being reported as Covid even when someone dies of a heart attack at home at 87 (real case in the family and they were not even tested for Covid).

The government says deaths are logged as Covid if someone dies within 28 days from testing positive regardless of what killed them.

We're all victims of the Nanny State that generations before this one helped create. So many people now absolutely paranoid and relying solely on the government to tell them what to think and do which is exactly what governments want.

Sent from my SM-G975F using Tapatalk


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## FNChaos

Iceblue said:


> Again Chaos you are only focusing on the wrong statistic. The deaths per million is what is important as the larger your population the more deaths you will have


We know that Covid disproportionately kills the elderly and those with underlying health conditions.
Deaths per million by itself doesn't paint a good picture of an individual's risk. However, monitoring the total number of infected people in your population allows you to calculate the level of risk to your vulnerable population. Dismissing 213k deaths as an 'acceptable' percentage is unacceptable.



LVS said:


> If you think this virus is going to kill you, then stay indoors, cut yourself off from everyone and live your life in fear, pass that fear on to your children so they grow up psychologically damaged and unable to cope with reality.
> 
> The rest of us would like to get on with our lives.


I guess that's one (selfish) way to look at it :roll:

For me, I'm not particularly concerned about dying, but I know my actions affect others.
As a military Vet and a long-time hospital worker I've always believed one needs to continually earn one's keep. That is, if you want to consider yourself a good citizen and a patriot you need to defend your Country against threats and protect those that can't protect themselves. If you have the ability to help, then you have an obligation to help.

There are people who risk their lives every day to help others. IMO, wearing a mask and avoiding crowds is hardly a sacrifice.


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## Iceblue

FNChaos said:


> There are people who risk their lives every day to help others. IMO, wearing a mask and avoiding crowds is hardly a sacrifice.


Agree if that is what is required to avoid lock downs and get our economies moving again


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## John-H

This is a concern - tests shows the virus survives in the dark for up to 28 days. Concerns raised over mailed items contents rather than just packaging:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co ... h-54500673


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## John-H

SAGE officially recommended an urgent 2-week 'circuit break' lockdown 3 weeks ago: https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/ ... t-22834510

Chris Whitty warns toughest new Tier 3 restrictions not enough to slow Covid-19 spread: https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/ ... t-22834289

Ministers were warned three weeks ago that Britain faced a "very large epidemic with catastrophic consequences" unless they took immediate action by imposing a two-week lockdown. The Sage committee of experts urged ministers to move urgently as new infections rose in all age groups, even as the full impact of opening schools and universities had yet to be felt. They warned a second wave would fall disproportionately on society's frailest and poorest as well as BAME communities: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... econd-wave?


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## John-H

Latest Government contact awarded to company PPE Medpro for £110 million of government contracts under cover of COVID. At least the name is better than PestFix. This actually sounds like a proper medical company.

The government refuse to publish contract details within 30 days like they are legally supposed to however.

Then we find out that the company only started this May with a share capital of £100. Perhaps that's part of the reason?


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## ashfinlayson

Uhuh, their directors are based on Isle of Man and "their" products are shipped straight from factory, which usually means they resell Chinese tat.


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## StuartDB

Maybe we could approach them for a forum Group Buy - for vaccines


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## John-H

You remember a certain unelected policy maker tested his eyesight on a visit to Barnard Castle and didn't get prosecuted by the police during lockdown for visiting his parents as he stayed separately in a cottage on their property whilst possibly being contagious?

Well, it turns out that Dominic Cummings part owns the property making it a second home - against the rules for visiting at the time.

Not only that but the cottage and another building on the property both did not have planning permission .

Not only that but no council tax has been paid for several years.

Mr Cummings must have been pleased when the Valuation Office Agengy decided not to retrospectively back charge for the £30,000 missing council tax.

Seems that the law doesn't apply to those pulling the strings.

Rather a shame for him then that Durham Council have decided to appeal the decision:

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/ ... n-22875104


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## Essex2Visuvesi

Thought I'd share this!
I will be wearing a mask in shops (and limiting my trips).
I'm not sure how being considerate to others for the common good is now being mocked by some who are calling it "living in fear", but it needs to stop....
When I wear a mask over my nose and mouth at work, in public and in the Stores/Supermarkets/Pharmacies/Offices - I want you to know the following:

I'm educated enough to know that I could be asymptomatic and still give you the virus.
No, I don't "live in fear" of the virus; I just want to be part of the solution, not the problem.
I don't feel like the "government controls me". I feel like I'm an adult contributing to the security in our society and I want to teach others the same.
 If we could all live with the consideration of others in mind, the whole world would be a much better place.
Wearing a mask doesn't make me weak, scared, stupid or even "controlled". It makes me caring and responsible.
When you think about your appearance, discomfort, or other people's opinion of you, imagine a loved one - a child, father, mother, grandparent, aunt, uncle or even a stranger - placed on a ventilator, alone without you or any family member allowed at their bedside.....Ask yourself if you could have helped them a little by wearing a mask.


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## rbl2020

Lagos capital of Uganda,

In 1918 Lagos lost 2.1% of it`s 81,941 population from H1N1 Spanish flu.
Lagos in 2020 has *126* Covid deaths out of a population of 14.3 million.
In 1918 the Malaria drug Quinine was not widely available for the indigenous African population, in 2020 Chloroquine a derivative is sold from almost every street corner shop. 
In 1918 Quinine was used to treat H1N1 with almost 100% success if given within 3 days of symptoms.
In 1937 Chloroquine was invented by a German pharmaceutical company. 
Africa, *Quinine, Choroquine*, Malaria, covid, is there a link.

https://nimedhealth.com.ng/2020/03/16/t ... s-in-1918/

https://archive.org/details/medicalreco ... 0/mode/2up Page 1981.

https://babel.hathitrust.org/cgi/pt?id= ... up&seq=247 Page 235


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## Iceblue

Unfortunately as this treatment has become politisied no one will pay attention to the facts. Bit like climate change alarmism and the Hunter Biden emails. Strange world we live in. Well at least we all now know that we cannot rely on Big tech to be balanced and an unbiased source of information.


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## John-H

Shoe makers profession.


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## John-H

The UK privatised Serco/Deloitte track and trace system is failing. Less than 15% of test results are being returned within 24 hours, less than 60% of contacts are being traced and 70% of those traced are within the same household!

How can this possibly be effective to get on top of the virus?

Those areas going into Tier 3 restriction can only come out when the R0 figure falls below one (falling cases) but SAGE say Tier 3 will not do this alone. Tier 3 is doomed to last indefinitely unless stricter measures are taken.

The problem with localised measures is that people cross borders to say nothing of the confusion as to what rules apply.

A circuit breaker national lock down of two or three weeks would reduce R0 below one, as previously proven, and give a chance for the failing tracing system to catch up and isolate infection. Local public health should be involved. Once this has been done it would be possible to drop out of lock down without the previous rate of further spread.

This should have been done weeks ago but political sensitivities are allowed to get in the way of pragmatic public health measures and the longer term economic interest.

The longer this hesitancy lasts the more areas will become Tier 3 with spreading paralysis and the longer the damage will last. Where is the leadership?


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## John-H

If you remember the scientific advisers SAGE said if you are re-opening schools something else will have to be restricted in order to keep the R rate below one. The government refused.

More recently they advised a two week circuit breaker lock down in order to allow test and trace to get back on top of the rising number of cases. The government refused.

We see the consequences and hear the warnings that the death toll will be higher than in the first wave unless the government do something more drastic.


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## Iceblue

Why will the death rate be higher


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## John-H

The restrictions are lower now than during the "lock down" which did bring R under 1 and the virus is still spreading and increasing. *If* nothing is done to halt the spread regarding the current measures which clearly are not working to bring R under 1 the case numbers will continue to rise and the deaths will follow after the usual time lag. The longer nothing is done the bigger the numbers get.

You also have the winter loading on hospitals and an increasing list of treatment cancelations and the consequences of that to say nothing of weary care workers trying their best to catch up and now hit with more loading.

The SAGE modelling apparently shows that the peak of the death rate may not be as high but unless action is taken it will last longer increasing the total number.


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## StuartDB

John-H said:


> You remember a certain unelected policy maker tested his eyesight on a visit to Barnard Castle and didn't get prosecuted by the police during lockdown for visiting his parents as he stayed separately in a cottage on their property whilst possibly being contagious?
> 
> Well, it turns out that Dominic Cummings part owns the property making it a second home - against the rules for visiting at the time.
> 
> Not only that but the cottage and another building on the property both did not have planning permission .
> 
> Not only that but no council tax has been paid for several years.
> 
> Mr Cummings must have been pleased when the Valuation Office Agengy decided not to retrospectively back charge for the £30,000 missing council tax.
> 
> Seems that the law doesn't apply to those pulling the strings.
> 
> Rather a shame for him then that Durham Council have decided to appeal the decision:
> 
> https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/ ... n-22875104


I bet you're good gutted Corbyn and momentum have been essentially booted out of labour to bring it back into centre / right.. New New New Labour

Local council's have been desperately trying to back charge unoccupied properties, after a law change allowed them to charge up to 4 times normal council tax for empty properties when it used to be half cost, even New owners are being charged for years before they even purchased the home.

I expect the found a document stating the cottage was being rented to his parents. The problem with just reading headlines is they rarely show the whole truth and are often bias


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## StuartDB

I think 4pm emergency briefing will put the country into total lockdown, which i was angry about as e have a really low infection rate where I live. I would have been angry but when I went into our local Tesco and 5pm builders and roofers just walked around with no masks.

There was a maybe security guard at the door and he didn't say a word to the 3 people, his job is to try and stop the very poor families nicking a packet of sausages for their tea.

4pm moved to 5pm now moved to 6.30pm... ominous maybe he hasn't got his hair quite right


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## John-H

No not really regarding Corbyn and I think the law should apply equally to everyone regarding Cummings but back on topic and as expected we've had too little too late and now we have to pay the consequences - which is going to cost us more in the long run.

Part of the problem has been coming out of lock down too early before the virus was properly suppressed, followed by too soon encouraging people to go back to normal and with an eat out to help out scheme where we spent a load of money to spread the virus further, opening schools and universities without restricting other activities against scientific advice and then when the numbers inevitably go up ignoring the SAGE advice to have a circuit break to give track and trace a chance to catch up and now the hospitals are also going to get overloaded it's panic and an even bigger circuit break now to make up for the poor decisions.

People dropping their guard and not bothering with precautions is partly due to the mixed messaging. If you tell people to go back to normal then reverse the advice and confuse everybody with tiers and regions people start deciding for themselves what they want to do and take advantage.

I was talking to someone who works in a cinema. She told me they get large groups coming in and when told they need to wear masks they apparently all have asthma.


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## John-H

Here's some light Halloween relief:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FTJnUZo ... e=youtu.be


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## StuartDB

*



I was talking to someone who works in a cinema. She told me they get large groups coming in and when told they need to wear masks they apparently all have asthma

Click to expand...

*Haha yeah.. that was my piss-take when ranting on Instagram about it. And to be fair if we let #BradlyWiggins and all our other cycling champs get away with cheating when taking 'therapeutics' because they have a letter from their mum that they once coughed after bashing a rug in the garden when they were ten years old. We have to expect groups of chavs, dating the same thing.

It's simple really.. traffic wardens dish out fixed penalty notices along with a video of them, and they have to challenge the £200 fine in court. Rather than a 16 year old twerp asking (let's face it) the same cool kids who bullied them at school to put a mask on.

either that.. or we bring in #DogTheBountyHunter and the guys and gals (i have never seen a gal) from don't pay and we'll take it away. To chase the money.

I have to be honest I didn't say anything when I saw it in Tescos... after seeing that guy just punch out someone totally unrelated to him, as he assumed it was a complaint to him instead of the member of staff.

I have asthma...

To be fair if someone actually had asthma etc they would be worried and wouldn't be out in a group.. this is not why I'm going on about it.. but my wife has been told by Papworth and the GP to just stay at home since March. And has once (and stupidly) have our grandkids a hug, I say stupidly as it was a week after the went to school.

What we have noticed is the tesco delivery guys that had COPD or PHE etc don't delivery anymore.


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## barry_m2

Everyone can wear a mask, there is no excuse. It doesn't affect breathing.

Maybe if the stupid people out there listened to what they were being told to do rather than argue and think they know better, we wouldn't still be in this situation. But sadly there is always someone that thinks they know better.


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## StuartDB

> Everyone can wear a mask, there is no excuse. It doesn't affect breathing.


that is simply not true - my wife already wears a mask joined to her oxygen tank if (not out of home since march) but our oxygen concentrator in the spare room - that has been running 24/7 since Feb. she cannot use the nasal version as it dries her sinuses.

and my dad had a cataract operation last month and was told he "must not wear a mask otherwise the condensation goes onto the eyes and stops them healing"

so yeah the excuses are few and far between - also my grandson has autism and even though a child would unlikely be able to wear a mask as an adult, that's a thing. you could probably turn it into a game but then he would take his mask off and put it onto strangers


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## SwissJetPilot

Post deleted by user.


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## StuartDB

seasonal flu is exactly that - "seasonal" so by the time it is damped down and starts coming back - it dies off naturally. I have tried to explain how mega intense an R of 2 is in 52 weeks it will be 100000 times the population of the world.. if it takes 1 week to spread it...

2^51 = 2.2517998e+15

equals 2,000,000,000,000,000

7,000,000,000 * 100000

maybe not quite 100,000 but close enough


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## SwissJetPilot

Post deleted by user.


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## barry_m2

:lol: so true SJP, so true.


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## John-H




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## John-H

This is fun. *My Little Crony*
A visualization map app someone's done showing the connections between Tory politicians and companies being awarded government contracts during the pandemic. Seems this is going to become like the cash for questions scandal.


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## StuartDB

I would be more concerned that Kier Starma brought Jeremy Corbyn back into 
'new new old new old new new old Labour' after realising without 'the left' they are centre party with only 10% of the vote.. and 'Reform' will pick up all the UKIP and the 'normal' left voters as essentially Kier's Labour without socialism are just whiney opposition, made into fools by 'The King of the North' Andy Burnham, who would have won over that Red Belt if Labour's leader last year.. I would be interested to discover if Burnham is out of media headlines because..

1. Labour want him out the limelight?
OR (More likely IMO)
2. His stupidity caused 1000s of deaths telling Manchester businesses to continue 'business as usual' now the hospitals are full and only treating covid patients for 50p extra power per person. In all honesty he should be arrested .


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## John-H

Corbyn has nothing to do with this thread as far as I know or in his dismissal or reinstatement respect Starma given the party processes.

More general political leanings may play into this crisis but reporting here should best be lead by the related evidence.

I thought Andy Burnham had argued for more support but been denied because other deals had been agreed e.g. Liverpool that if a better deal was agreed elsewhere then they would be upgraded too.


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## StuartDB

The 3 weeks arguing demanding the whole country should be in lockdown.. meant the whole country went into lockdown.

But why is he never interviewed anymore? He was on 10 time a day before.. now is he in hiding?

I know two people now who have sadly died from covid a 72 year old 'auntie' (parent's neighbour from 1960s) who was given 2 months to live 2 years ago with pulmonary fibrosis - using hair spray in the 60s and 70s apparently)
And another 72 year old 'auntie' with severe dementia in a care home for the last 4 years, died last week.. its really crazy - dementia isn't just forgetting names and being reminded its time for dinner.. your brain actually forgets reflex and conditioned responses too.. a bit like heavy duty painkillers like oxycodone can make you forget to breath..

My wife still hasn't had her 6 monthly Papworth checkup, that was due 8 months ago. But chaperones are not allowed at the appointment, and with the new building, if you can walk from the front door to the initial reception you probably don't need an appointment and if you can walk the extra 200 metres to the day appointments, you almost certainly don't need their help anymore.


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## John-H

All quite scandalous with a lack of planning despite long-standing warnings that a pandemic was the biggest threat, that we were so run down on PPE stocks but now confirmed by the National Audit Office that it cannot sign off on £18 billion of government PPE contacts because of a lack of transparency, lack of documentation and illegal delay in publication of details. It reveals discovery of a fast track lane for contracts approved directly by ministers which meant you were 10 times more likely to end up with a contract. The process was described as "chaotic" with huge range of prices paid and many companies red flagged such as PestFix awarded £350 million of contracts with only three staff working on PPE and Ayanda Capital who work with government advisor Andrew Mills awarded £250 million for face masks describing itself as an investment firm. Contracts placed with unlikely companies with offshore links to government ministers and party members. Now we know the explanation for why established British PPE manufactures had their offers to supply turned down. It's called corruption.

Channel 4 news report:


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## leopard

Don't worry about it. Nothing will come from this.


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## StuartDB

for 95% of the human race, covid never really arrived - watch some of the episodes of "Ancient Aliens" and you will soon understand the real origin of Coronavirus   https://hdclump.com/ancient-aliens-alie ... epidemics/ <-- everyday is a learning day.

conspiracy / mis-information / social media related to Anti-Vaccers
some 30 (can't guarantee the number was 30  ) expert virologists across Europe created a collation of individual scientific results from a variety masks and impacts in different environments, and driven factually by the UK infection Head Office in Oxford - _I was supposed to go there after Addenbrookes poisoned me into renal failure trying to get rid of Antibiotic Resistant Hospital Infection Pseudomonas Osteomyelitis - they managed to give me after fitting an ORIF for a spiral fracture of the distal third and tibia plateau "obliteration" - when a people carrier pulled into me. to be fair there were more than 30 bits, some crushed some twisted, some yanked and after about 10 different anti-biotics and 4 months, the "Black Wednesday" (mid august junior doctor swap over) no-one checked my bloods_ <-- digression I suppose  but in any case when this report was uploaded to the Oxford university hospital Facebook account it was deleted and was replaced with a fact checker comment <-- or whatever.

but this does lead to the point that is - if any anti-vaccination comment is put on social media and deleted and people are arrested and fined (if Kier Starma gets his own way) people will think they being silenced because its true.

This conversation on the Radio led to the people complaining this hasn't been properly tested yet, and the presenter said but it will be safe though wont it, so it is just jumping a step in the queue. The "Free Speech" guy on the Radio pointed out that Swine-Flu vaccine was fast-tracked and deemed safe then a couple / few years later they realised that it has caused narcalepsy so the vaccine was given in 2009 and I am unsure whether they took 3 or 4 years to discover and admit the link. I think they have been compensating anyone suffering £120K


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## John-H

The risk was about one in 52,000 and one in 52,750 and much smaller than the risk of swine flu which it was protecting against. The fact that this particular vaccine was withdrawn because of this small observed risk is indicative of the safety standards employed.
https://www.nhs.uk/news/medication/swin ... ery-small/


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## StuartDB

How do you feel about the Oxford Vaccine 70% effective with 2 doses. although if you have a 1/2 dose then a full dose it is 90% effective?

When the lead scientist was asked why it was more effective with a half dose first? He didn't know...   but still submitting it for safety checks.

Still refusing to give under 18s a vaccine is interesting isn't it? I want to know whether the example of giving children a vaccine had the opposite effect when they caught the illness, is related or whether there is a complication surrounding consent ?

Let's face it... we ask want a vaccine but who really wants to be the 1st 

I also want to know which vaccine Russia created, being they apparently stole details for both the RNA (or whatever) and the traditional modified virus distribution. If I can advise any decent Amazon Prime show #TheAmericans is great..

When my fellow apprentices at BAe (after my departure), accidently let a Terminate Stay Resident program we mucking about with - spread across the Stevenage Networks.. finding devices and disks etc.. they simply created another virus to spread the anti-dote. So if the Oxford Vaccine is in another actual virus, why is that not trans-missed in the same way?

Still not clear from any of these viruses whether it is still caught and spread and the effects are simply suppressed? As it can be spread before symptoms, maybe it will simply circulate and eventually kill everyone who has not been injected.


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## John-H

The news this morning that the AstraZeneca vaccine large scale trial has reported 62% and 90% effectiveness depending on dosage regime - the combined result being reported as 70.2%. The better result resulting from a lower dose followed by a higher dose - it being suggested that the lower dose primes the immune system and the larger dose then created a better immune response. Apparently nobody who received the vaccine went on to develop COVID-19.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/202 ... university

This is I believe the biggest trial and also the only one to do follow up testing to determine infectiveness - the early indications of which suggests it stops the spread. It also generates an immune response in the elderly.

The vaccines are being prioritised for vulnerable groups such as front line workers and the elderly split into age groups. It's not being prioritised for younger groups because the risk of the virus is less. The risk doubles with every six years of age so a 60 year old is 32 times more likely to die from COVID-19 than a 30 year old.

There were a lot of volunteers on this trial who thought it would help humanity to participate - all age groups too.


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## SwissJetPilot

Post deleted by user.


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## John-H

In the Third Man Orson Wells said, _"In Italy, for thirty years under the Borgias, they had warfare, terror, murder and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci and the Renaissance. In Switzerland, they had brotherly love, they had five hundred years of democracy and peace - and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock."_

It's all not true of course because the cuckoo clock was German invented in the Black Forrest and there's not much brotherly love with that policy but somehow it seemed appropriate.


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## Iceblue

John-H said:


> they had brotherly love


Did not realise this particular trait about the Swiss, and for 500 years' too. Perhaps Swiss can explain


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## SwissJetPilot

Post deleted by user.


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## ZephyR2

@John-H - "The cuckoo clock" :lol:

@SJP - So after all those years of social cleansing, did it actually made any difference to the quality of Swiss society? Can't believe how backwards their thinking was even into the later 1900s.

Mind you I shouldn't be surprised that their state policies were severely flawed, even their cheese is full of holes :lol:


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## SwissJetPilot

Post deleted by user.


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## John-H




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## SwissJetPilot

Post deleted by user.


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## John-H

I *feel* the *gap* in understanding your *terminal* view is *point*less [smiley=bigcry.gif] :wink:


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## Iceblue

SwissJetPilot said:


> Just a few of Switzerland's darker social secrets. It's not all scenic views, chocolate and cheese over here.
> 
> In 1880, in an effort to rid the country of the lowest classes, Swiss authorities handed one-way tickets to over 80,000 of their poorest citizens and shipped them to the US.
> 
> In a practice that lasted until 1981, tens of thousands of children and teenagers were forcibly removed from their families. Unmarried teenage mothers and dropouts could be detained without trial or interned in psychiatric hospitals right up until the 1980s. The authorities sometimes even decreed that the adults should be castrated or sterilized and forced to hand their children over for adoption.
> 
> Some 60,000 people considered "deviant" by the Swiss authorities were locked up over the course of the 20th century. The practice peaked in Switzerland in the 1930s but was still legal as late as 1981.
> 
> From the 1920s until the 1970s, the Swiss government had a semi-official policy of institutionalizing Yenish parents and having their children adopted by members of the sedentary Swiss population. 590 children were taken from their parents and institutionalized in orphanages, mental institutions, and even prisons. Child removals peaked in the 1930s to 1940s, in the years leading up to and during World War II. The program was discontinued in 1973.
> 
> Interesting fun fact, Swiss women were only given the right to vote in 1971, however It took another 20 years until the last canton, Appenzell Innerrhoden, extended local voting rights to women.
> 
> One has to ask if it was a coincidence that these horrific social practices only stopped after women could vote.


Wow who would have thought given the neutral egalitarian image the world has about Switzerland. Perhaps its time to take sides.


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## John-H

From the Daily Mail:





On *PMQs* the wider point was made that the government has acted too little too late throughout, leaving us with amongst the highest death tolls and with the greatest economic damage of any country in Europe. Why?

For the first lockdown, the UK and Germany locked down on the same day but Germany had 81 deaths and the UK had delayed until 359 deaths before acting at that point. Both death tolls increased x100 in the following three weeks following from the predictable exponential growth of the natural R rate of 3+ doubling every two to three days prior to lockdown, and then after three weeks having forced R<1 and with those infected either having lived or died Germany found itself with 8,000 deaths and the UK 36,000. If only we had locked down a week earlier following scientific advice when our death toll was 89 we could have perhaps saved 30,000 lives given the predictable exponential rise.

Then we had the mad middle class eat out to spread the virus scheme and we opened the schools without, as the scientists advised, restricting mixing in other areas to keep R under control. Predictably the infection rate rose.

The government never got the "world beating" track and trace scheme working properly which was continually overwhelmed by the numbers of cases despite all the money poured into Circo and Deloitte.

The same mistake was made with the second lock down. The government delayed and resisted until they were forced by the rising infection rate into taking action and had to apply lock down for much longer resulting in more economic damage than necessary.

Bizarrely they decided the end of the lock down date and announced relaxing of restrictions over Christmas before knowing what the infection rate would be.

Consequently we've come out of lock down with the infections still high - too high for track and trace to cope with and now we are going into Christmas with R>1 again and about to relax restrictions further to make things worse because the government cannot face up to what it sees as a difficult political decision to be a Christmas Grinch and would rather instead abdicate responsibility to the public who are now presented with the mixed message of "meet up - don't meet up".

It was the economist Maynard Keynes that said, *"When the facts change I change my mind. What do you do, Sir?"*

Perhaps we will find out at 4:30 pm.


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## John-H

> *The government's poor control of Covid-19 has increased the force of the infection and allowed more mutations to happen. On top of the economic costs of lockdown measures, the UK has now been effectively placed in quarantine by the international community. The prime minister's repeated dithering, delays and seeming inability to make unpopular decisions have led Britain to have one of the worst death rates in the world. We have now cancelled Christmas and triggered international alarm. We can only hope that we're not still in this position by Easter.*


https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... tion-occur?


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## StuartDB

I personally feel immunity creates mutations, so if there's any blame it's the Oxford calamity of trials, not knowing what doses people had, saying an accidental half dose given as a first dose increases immunity, then saying 2 full doses are best rather than a full dose followed by a half dose.

That's a C- in science.

Brief
Create a covid vaccine

Method
Use existing vaccine methods we know are safe, is cheap, can be stored in a fridge and trial in different countries.

Results
We are not sure, only one person died. But we have different results based on a confusion over the dosage.

Conclusion 
We have an intriguing result where lots of trials were wrong and some of those people didn't get covid..

So we are pretty sure it's between 60 and 90 percent, remembering only 3% of people actually get ill from it.

But does anyone want it?

US - no
INDIA - this sounds like what we need but we don't understand your results or conclusion... why don't you start using it first then we'll see?
WHO - can anyone make head or tail of the results?
MHRA - what the f*** is this bull-s***... you had one simple task to do. It included:
1. Write down a name and scan vaccine barcode
2. Inject 1 unit
3. Wait 3 weeks 
4. Inject 1 unit
5. Followup health checks
6. Tick or cross for cov id 
7. If date < 6 months goto 5
8. Click reveal to see if meningitis or covid vaccine.

But that's okay, it probably is too far behind the mutation already.

All the scientists told us in order to mutate for ease of transmission, a virus gives up some virulence.. which is how Spanish flu 'disappeared'

Oxford vaccine results remind me of being 11 and getting 0 for a colour wheel in Art. The teacher accused me of being lazy and properly mucking it up. I am colour blind so went to mix the two colours but had no idea what went where.. essentially the whole wheel afr the prime colours was essentially greeny / browny


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## John-H

Good job we have expert analysis via the regulator to rely on.

Viruses mutate all the time but the one thing that enables and amplifies this is transmission. We've had a lot of it in the UK and transmission has never been properly suppressed. With no transmission there's no mutation and spread. Given that the number of people infected through transmission vastly exceeds by several orders of magnitude the relatively small number involved with vaccine trials there would be far more opportunity for mutation through natural selection than any influence of a vaccine.

Some people are asymptomatic carriers and pass on the virus which possibly survives in them better through mutation and is passed on. Vaccinated people however are far more likely to kill off the virus and therefore stop it passing on. This makes a vaccine yet far less likely involved in mutation.

How would you gather evidence of a particular mutation's origin? You could theoretically back trace but so far the only evidence is wide geographic. The UK also has a large testing and analysis capacity so is far more likely to find new mutations than some counties for this reason. It's not clear that the identified strain also exists elsewhere therefore.


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## StuartDB

Something I really don't quite understand here is with the measles vaccine (as an example) if a vaccinated person comes in contact with someone with measles the vaccinated person catches measles but then just gets rid of it before they get ill and can retransmit it? But the various experts and doctors have not quite confirmed whether they are essentially making people less vulnerable to the virus, but they still can catch it and pass it on but were unaware they even had it, so surely they (doctors, nurses etc) still need to be tested probably daily... to make sure they are not spreading it to unvaccinated patients.

One of my friends is married to a Russian who said the Russian vaccine uses human anti-gen and the UK uses chimpanzee anti-gen which is why Russia claim 90% (but apparently more dangerous) but I thought their 'traveller friend' copied RNA like Pfizer and Merdona


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## John-H

I don't knw much about the Russian vaccine but you are right I believe in that we don't know for sure whether the vaccines will prevent transmission or only provide a protective immune response as the data collected so far from the trials looked at the numbers naturally infected, in both the vaccine and control groups in the random community. Establishing data for blocking transmission is more complicated as you'd need to compare viral loads/shedding in the infected, and the vaccinated group will have a much smaller number which increases uncertainty of the data. I don't know if that data is known or reliable. They are expecting a reduction in transmission and that will be more evident from the results of the vaccine roll out and the effect on measured infection rate in the community.

Of more concern right now is the infection rate which seems to be rising sharply and is now the highest ever recorded with hospitals about to be overloaded again. The relaxation over Christmas predictably has a cost. If this doesn't tell people having a party at New Year's Eve is a bad idea I don't know what will. It looks like we will be heading for another strict national lock down in the New Year.


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## StuartDB

As their were the highest number of 999 calls on Christmas Day - the one day people could mix (in some places) does that mean the incubation people is only a few hours instead of 2 weeks? or just paranoid people drinking and eating too much?


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## roddy

SwissJetPilot said:


> "We're from the Government and we're here to help."
> 
> Any questions??


somehow shows the limited intelligence level of the cov-antic zealot


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## John-H

The mother of all U-turns they are saying after General Dither Johnson, saying on Sunday that schools were to open and then shutting them on Monday. He claims it was new information he saw overnight but the numbers have been shooting up obviously and he's been behind the curve all the way when scientists and Starmer were warning him for weeks not to relax Christmas and to bring in a lockdown prior which he ridiculed Starmer for (calling him Captain Hindsight when clearly it's foresight) only for General Dither to reverse his decision claiming he'd only just been told about a new virus variant - when in fact the number of infections rising was all the information he needed. He was told that the tiers were clearly not working. Given 24 hours by Starmer to introduce a lockdown he sheepishly hinted on the Marr show that tougher measures may be needed and the next day he claims he was reluctantly acting because scientists had put the threat level up to five overnight - as if he didn't really want to act in the public interest all along.

There was a very interesting discussion on Radio4 PM tonight about the psychology of decision making (or indecision) in an effort to explain how we are being led. It reminded me of this I'd seen earlier by Rafael Behr:

_Johnson's technique for dealing with problems is to let them run out of control, building to a point of sufficient crisis that delay is no longer viable. That way the choice becomes perversely easier because there are fewer options left. Wait long enough and there might be only one.
That is how he has dealt with Brexit. He imagines that brinkmanship is a negotiating strategy to wring concessions out of Brussels, but in reality it is just a way to simplify the decision by eliminating options that needed time to develop. He lets procrastination do the heavy lifting. He can then tell himself (and his audience) that the final outcome, while not perfect, is the best available solution. And maybe it is. But only because it is so late in the day and all the better solutions have long since expired.

It is a chaotic way to run anything: leaving it all to the last minute, relying on a critical mass of external pressure to get motivated. As a way of governing in a pandemic it is disastrous because there is no slack time between deadlines. The moment to make the tough choices is always now. The rate at which good options decay is exponential. The virus thrives on indecision. Johnson's method is effective for one thing, though: it guarantees a sustained pitch of political drama, with the figure of the prime minister lit centre stage. It forces the nation to hang on his word, waiting for him to act, while the consequences of his inaction play out. That bathes him in an aura of power, but it is not leadership._

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... tmas-covid


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## leopard

John-H said:


> The mother of all U-turns they are saying after General Dither Johnson, saying on Sunday that schools were to open and then shutting them on Monday. He claims it was new information he saw overnight but the numbers have been shooting up obviously and he's been behind the curve all the way when scientists and Starmer were warning him for weeks not to relax Christmas and to bring in a lockdown prior which he ridiculed Starmer for (calling him Captain Hindsight when clearly it's foresight) only for General Dither to reverse his decision claiming he'd only just been told about a new virus variant - when in fact the number of infections rising was all the information he needed. He was told that the tiers were clearly not working. Given 24 hours by Starmer to introduce a lockdown he sheepishly hinted on the Marr show that tougher measures may be needed and the next day he claims he was reluctantly acting because scientists had put the threat level up to five overnight - as if he didn't really want to act in the public interest all along.
> 
> There was a very interesting discussion on Radio4 PM tonight about the psychology of decision making (or indecision) in an effort to explain how we are being led. It reminded me of this I'd seen earlier by Rafael Behr:
> 
> _Johnson's technique for dealing with problems is to let them run out of control, building to a point of sufficient crisis that delay is no longer viable. That way the choice becomes perversely easier because there are fewer options left. Wait long enough and there might be only one.
> That is how he has dealt with Brexit. He imagines that brinkmanship is a negotiating strategy to wring concessions out of Brussels, but in reality it is just a way to simplify the decision by eliminating options that needed time to develop. He lets procrastination do the heavy lifting. He can then tell himself (and his audience) that the final outcome, while not perfect, is the best available solution. And maybe it is. But only because it is so late in the day and all the better solutions have long since expired.
> 
> It is a chaotic way to run anything: leaving it all to the last minute, relying on a critical mass of external pressure to get motivated. As a way of governing in a pandemic it is disastrous because there is no slack time between deadlines. The moment to make the tough choices is always now. The rate at which good options decay is exponential. The virus thrives on indecision. Johnson's method is effective for one thing, though: it guarantees a sustained pitch of political drama, with the figure of the prime minister lit centre stage. It forces the nation to hang on his word, waiting for him to act, while the consequences of his inaction play out. That bathes him in an aura of power, but it is not leadership._
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... tmas-covid


Rubbish, comments like this can't be given any credibility. You're a known Tory basher John, a lefty who idolises the left wing and their gutter press, aka The Guardian.

Johnson is damned if he does and damned if he doesn't. He's doing a splendid job considering. Tell us all how you would go about things and make sense of it all whilst crying at the same time into that warm beer of your's over Brexit and how we've all been shafted :lol:


----------



## BW57

John-H said:


> The mother of all U-turns they are saying after General Dither Johnson, saying on Sunday that schools were to open and then shutting them on Monday. He claims it was new information he saw overnight but the numbers have been shooting up obviously and he's been behind the curve all the way when scientists and Starmer were warning him for weeks not to relax Christmas and to bring in a lockdown prior which he ridiculed Starmer for (calling him Captain Hindsight when clearly it's foresight) only for General Dither to reverse his decision claiming he'd only just been told about a new virus variant - when in fact the number of infections rising was all the information he needed. He was told that the tiers were clearly not working. Given 24 hours by Starmer to introduce a lockdown he sheepishly hinted on the Marr show that tougher measures may be needed and the next day he claims he was reluctantly acting because scientists had put the threat level up to five overnight - as if he didn't really want to act in the public interest all along.
> 
> There was a very interesting discussion on Radio4 PM tonight about the psychology of decision making (or indecision) in an effort to explain how we are being led. It reminded me of this I'd seen earlier by Rafael Behr:
> 
> _Johnson's technique for dealing with problems is to let them run out of control, building to a point of sufficient crisis that delay is no longer viable. That way the choice becomes perversely easier because there are fewer options left. Wait long enough and there might be only one.
> That is how he has dealt with Brexit. He imagines that brinkmanship is a negotiating strategy to wring concessions out of Brussels, but in reality it is just a way to simplify the decision by eliminating options that needed time to develop. He lets procrastination do the heavy lifting. He can then tell himself (and his audience) that the final outcome, while not perfect, is the best available solution. And maybe it is. But only because it is so late in the day and all the better solutions have long since expired.
> 
> It is a chaotic way to run anything: leaving it all to the last minute, relying on a critical mass of external pressure to get motivated. As a way of governing in a pandemic it is disastrous because there is no slack time between deadlines. The moment to make the tough choices is always now. The rate at which good options decay is exponential. The virus thrives on indecision. Johnson's method is effective for one thing, though: it guarantees a sustained pitch of political drama, with the figure of the prime minister lit centre stage. It forces the nation to hang on his word, waiting for him to act, while the consequences of his inaction play out. That bathes him in an aura of power, but it is not leadership._
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... tmas-covid


Absolutely spot on!

And "He's doing a splendid job considering." is laughable.


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## leopard

BW57 said:


> John-H said:
> 
> 
> 
> The mother of all U-turns they are saying after General Dither Johnson, saying on Sunday that schools were to open and then shutting them on Monday. He claims it was new information he saw overnight but the numbers have been shooting up obviously and he's been behind the curve all the way when scientists and Starmer were warning him for weeks not to relax Christmas and to bring in a lockdown prior which he ridiculed Starmer for (calling him Captain Hindsight when clearly it's foresight) only for General Dither to reverse his decision claiming he'd only just been told about a new virus variant - when in fact the number of infections rising was all the information he needed. He was told that the tiers were clearly not working. Given 24 hours by Starmer to introduce a lockdown he sheepishly hinted on the Marr show that tougher measures may be needed and the next day he claims he was reluctantly acting because scientists had put the threat level up to five overnight - as if he didn't really want to act in the public interest all along.
> 
> There was a very interesting discussion on Radio4 PM tonight about the psychology of decision making (or indecision) in an effort to explain how we are being led. It reminded me of this I'd seen earlier by Rafael Behr:
> 
> _Johnson's technique for dealing with problems is to let them run out of control, building to a point of sufficient crisis that delay is no longer viable. That way the choice becomes perversely easier because there are fewer options left. Wait long enough and there might be only one.
> That is how he has dealt with Brexit. He imagines that brinkmanship is a negotiating strategy to wring concessions out of Brussels, but in reality it is just a way to simplify the decision by eliminating options that needed time to develop. He lets procrastination do the heavy lifting. He can then tell himself (and his audience) that the final outcome, while not perfect, is the best available solution. And maybe it is. But only because it is so late in the day and all the better solutions have long since expired.
> 
> It is a chaotic way to run anything: leaving it all to the last minute, relying on a critical mass of external pressure to get motivated. As a way of governing in a pandemic it is disastrous because there is no slack time between deadlines. The moment to make the tough choices is always now. The rate at which good options decay is exponential. The virus thrives on indecision. Johnson's method is effective for one thing, though: it guarantees a sustained pitch of political drama, with the figure of the prime minister lit centre stage. It forces the nation to hang on his word, waiting for him to act, while the consequences of his inaction play out. That bathes him in an aura of power, but it is not leadership._
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... tmas-covid
> 
> 
> 
> Absolutely spot on!
> 
> And "He's doing a splendid job considering." is laughable.
Click to expand...

Another Guardian reader me thinks


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## John-H

leopard said:


> Rubbish, comments like this can't be given any credibility. You're a known Tory basher John, a lefty who idolises the left wing and their gutter press, aka The Guardian.
> 
> Johnson is damned if he does and damned if he doesn't. He's doing a splendid job considering. Tell us all how you would go about things and make sense of it all whilst crying at the same time into that warm beer of your's over Brexit and how we've all been shafted :lol:


Everybody is entitled to an opinion but I think the difference between your criticism and mine is that I'm criticising the government in power for it's performance which is a matter of record - just look at the graphs, the dates and decisions made and follow the news, and you are criticising me for criticising your hero. Sorry about that but that's how it is.

















I am also concerned that the higher R0 (R nought) value of the new virus strain with incomplete vaccine take up will render vaccines ineffective.

If a vaccine is 70% effective then if you vaccinate 100 people you'd expect 30 could become infected despite being vaccinated which is the same result as vaccinating only 70 out of the 100 people with a 100% effective vaccine - equivalent to less take-up of the vaccine.

This is particularly concerning with the new 202012/01 strain being relatively 1.74 times more transmissible.

The original Corona virus has a natural R0 = 3. To calculate the percentage of population to achieve herd immunity you use 1 - 1/R0 = 0.66 i.e. 66%.

The new variant R0 = 5.22 and the same calculation works out to 80% of population and won't be achieved with a 70% effective vaccine even if 100% of the population were vaccinated. In this situation R remains above one (R >1) and the virus still spreads exponentially and has the potential to mutate further. Arguably something that this country has allowed to happen because we didn't act soon or decisively enough - too little too late.

This overall picture does not seem to have been picked up in the media. Nobody is pointing out that vaccine effectiveness multiplies with take up. This makes the second dose more important to say nothing of overcoming anti-vax misinformation and persuading higher take up of the vaccine or even making it compulsory?

Without effective eradication of the virus through herd immunity we will be doomed to continue imposing social restrictions despite vaccination in order to keep R<1. The longer the virus remains active the more likely a new strain with higher R0 can develop.

Measles, in comparison, has a higher R0 of 12 to 16 and requires >91% of the population to be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity - which has been achieved because the Measles vaccine has good take up and crucially is 99% effective unlike the less effective Corona virus vaccines.

The other thing is the speed of the vaccine roll out and the effective low level of protection until complete and how that plays into the above. It's going to be a long year I think.


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## leopard

I've just spent the last 15mins writing out a detailed response here and have been logged off. I'll be buggered if I'm going to repeat it over again, but have simplified it.

"We're all armchair experts in hindsight as we haven't experienced anything like this in modern times. Globally there are 2 million deaths and counting. Are all governments wrong etc"..


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## barry_m2

leopard said:


> Rubbish, comments like this can't be given any credibility. You're a known Tory basher John, a lefty who idolises the left wing and their gutter press, aka The Guardian.
> 
> Johnson is damned if he does and damned if he doesn't. He's doing a splendid job considering. Tell us all how you would go about things and make sense of it all whilst crying at the same time into that warm beer of your's over Brexit and how we've all been shafted :lol:


Nail, head, hit.


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## BW57

Another Guardian reader me thinks [/quote]

Hmm...sorry, but you think wrong


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## John-H

leopard said:


> I've just spent the last 15mins writing out a detailed response here and have been logged off. I'll be buggered if I'm going to repeat it over again, but have simplified it.
> 
> "We're all armchair experts in hindsight as we haven't experienced anything like this in modern times. Globally there are 2 million deaths and counting. Are all governments wrong etc"..


But we have experienced it. What you say is contrary to the evidence we can all see. We saw what was happening in Italy and unlike Germany left it too late for the first lock down, despite the calls from the scientists, so we had tens of thousands more deaths. Despite, the prior (not hindsight) warnings we repeated the same dither and delay before acting again and again. We've just done it again now. You are denying the evidence of the record we can all see and we've ended up amongst the highest death tolls and the worst hit economy. How did we manage that?


----------



## StuartDB

We had the biggest hit on the economy, by closing down businesses and paying people 80% of the income to watch TV.

Amazon and Hermes Drivers need to be trained to give vaccines they visit over 1,000,000 households a day.

You are quite socialist John - probably remember the beautiful 3 day week Labour created for the Railway workers where 256,000 people just cleaned trains all day, as there were no jobs for them to do. or where BT gave voluntary redundancy / earlier retirement on full final salary pension, and then re-employed them as contractors the following day


----------



## John-H

Quite clearly delaying taking the correct action soon enough and coming out of lock down too early means the infection rises to a greater level, lockdowns have to be more frequent and last longer and so have a bigger effect on the economy when dealing with it. That's why we are suffering more than other countries who have also supported their businesses and citizens only not as much as we've had to do.

Realising that is being a realist.

If by socialist you mean someone who agrees that people should be looked after in a supportive society I'd agree. The government also took supportive measures in this pandemic. They even took the homeless off the street and put them up in a hotel. How socialist is that? The alternative is to let people suffer. I don't think that would be right and I hope and presume you wouldn't either.

The argument is the cost and that is in proportion to the extent to which you need to do it. If you allow the situation to deteriorate you have a bigger job on your hands.


----------



## leopard

Instead of making a case argument on the car forum why don't you put forward some case for crowd funding and go to London, I dunno perhaps something along the lines of this:

"Help me raise a few bob so I can catch the bus to Downing st and vilify his peeps, B. Johnson Esq and Prof Witty. They will be de-briefed as to why they have got it so wrong with managing Covid 19. I have the full support of my comrades at the local Labour club and wise sages at my local public house, the Dog&Pheasant"

"Extra funding will be required for further debrief on the state of the economy and Brexit Armageddon" :lol: :lol:


----------



## John-H

Good to see you are interested in the subject but I'll let you do but that and get arrested for breaking lockdown rules :wink:

By the way I don't think Witty and the other SAGE advisors are getting it wrong. They advised Johnson to close schools two weeks ago then on Sunday he said:

_"I understand people's frustrations and I understand people's anxieties. But there is no doubt in my mind that schools are safe. The risk to kids, to young people, is really very, very small&#8230; the risk to staff is very small and, of course, the benefits of education are so huge. Overwhelmingly we want to keep our young people, keep children, keep kids in education because that's the best thing for them." - Boris Johnson, January 3.
_
January 4: Boris Johnson shuts all schools in England.


----------



## leopard

Now there's the irony, they're Boris' s rules...


----------



## StuartDB

> If by socialist you mean someone who agrees that people should be looked after in a supportive society I'd agree. The government also took supportive measures in this pandemic. They even took the homeless off the street and put them up in a hotel. How socialist is that?


Who do you think we tested covid therapy and fast tracked vaccines on?


----------



## Iceblue

Leopard said:


> "We're all armchair experts in hindsight as we haven't experienced anything like this in modern times. Globally there are 2 million deaths and counting. Are all governments wrong etc"..


Absolutely Leopard - each Country is different and are learning as they go. No need to politisise every mis-step JH.

John, you should be directing your highly refined commentary/research skills on the real culprits who started this virus and the circumstances upon which it was created, released and why the the lies about it not being contagious for humans whilst at the same time allowing their citizens free movement out of the country whilst stopping domestic travel from Wuhan. Since then Hong Kong gone, Trump gone, one sided trade war commenced against Australia for suggesting there should be an investigation into the cause of the virus. Oh, and yes no one seems to have commented that China is not allowing your beloved WHO to investigate the cause of the virus after earlier agreeing to do so.

China's current aggressive posture combined with a weak, compromised and medically unfit democrat president in the US is a recipe for world instability with far greater consequences than this virus.



John-H said:


> If by socialist you mean someone who agrees that people should be looked after in a supportive society I'd agree.


Hilarious definition John. Socialism does not work and there are many examples. Individual freedom works although imperfectly.


----------



## John-H

Iceblue said:


> Leopard said:
> 
> 
> 
> "We're all armchair experts in hindsight as we haven't experienced anything like this in modern times. Globally there are 2 million deaths and counting. Are all governments wrong etc"..
> 
> 
> 
> Absolutely Leopard - each Country is different and are learning as they go. No need to politisise every mis-step JH.
Click to expand...

Absolutely not. You are making two errors. Firstly you are treating this as a political argument when primarily it is not. What's happening here is I'm arguing the consequences of scientific data, decisions made and the consequences and you are treating it as a political comment against the government. It's a criticism of the government for sure but it wouldn't matter what flavour of party was in charge - I'd be making the same criticism.

Secondly you are treating all comments as "hindsight" when clearly they are not. Read back through the thread and you will see predictions were made before the events happened. That's foresight - not mine I was merely pointing out the advice the government received but ignored and we can now see the consequences. I've been saying all along we need to suppress the virus down to manageable and traceable levels but all along it's been allowed to rise too far and not enough was done - too little too late.

Here I've made it more easy for you by adding the example of the SAGE circuit breaker lockdown advice to the graphs given to the government on 21st September - which the government rejected, fiddled around with ineffective tiers and finally six weeks later had to implement the lockdown advised - but too late. Also you can clearly see despite the numbers still being high they still came out of lockdown - too early - and the results shot up again - all as predicted. Not hindsight at all.





















Iceblue said:


> John, you should be directing your highly refined commentary/research skills on the real culprits who started this virus and the circumstances upon which it was created, released and why the the lies about it not being contagious for humans whilst at the same time allowing their citizens free movement out of the country whilst stopping domestic travel from Wuhan. Since then Hong Kong gone, Trump gone, one sided trade war commenced against Australia for suggesting there should be an investigation into the cause of the virus. Oh, and yes no one seems to have commented that China is not allowing your beloved WHO to investigate the cause of the virus after earlier agreeing to do so.
> 
> China's current aggressive posture combined with a weak, compromised and medically unfit democrat president in the US is a recipe for world instability with far greater consequences than this virus.


I don't think arguing about the origins of the virus in China are going to help dealing with the virus here and now.



Iceblue said:


> John-H said:
> 
> 
> 
> If by socialist you mean someone who agrees that people should be looked after in a supportive society I'd agree.
> 
> 
> 
> Hilarious definition John. Socialism does not work and there are many examples. Individual freedom works although imperfectly.
Click to expand...

There you go making political comments which are irrelevant to the arguments here about taking the right action to protect our citizens.


----------



## leopard

John-H said:


> Absolutely not. You are making two errors. Firstly you are treating this as a political argument when primarily it is not


Lol, you clearly are because it's next to impossible to separate the politics from the factual because the factual outcome is predetermined by the former in this case. It just so happens that Boris leaves a sour taste on your palate.



John-H said:


> Secondly you are treating all comments as "hindsight" when clearly they are not. Read back through the thread and you will see predictions were made before the events happened. That's foresight - not mine I was merely pointing out the advice the government received but ignored and we can now see the consequences. I've been saying all along we need to suppress the virus down to manageable and traceable levels but all along it's been allowed to rise too far and not enough was done - too little too late


Proof required that the government willingly ignored advice. It's fair to assume they considered the advice and thought it wasn't in the country's best interest at that time. Two different scenarios there you see..


----------



## John-H

Still trying to politicise the issue I see. Your avoidance of discussion of the technical points just tells me you've taken the only path left to you. :roll:

Proof? They were wrong not to follow the advice clearly :roll:


----------



## leopard

John-H said:


> Still trying to politicise the issue I see. Your lack of discussion of the technical points just tells me you've taken the only path you can. :roll:
> 
> Proof? They were wrong not to follow the advice clearly :roll:


Hardly, why are you rolling your eyes like a big girl :lol:

"*Proof? They were wrong not to follow the advice clearly" *

Is that all you can come up with. As clear as mud 

You know full well that you're the pontiff when politicizing. As far as technicalities go I'll leave that with you as your copy and paste technique off your favourite political site is more than adequate without the need for my intervention into the subject. You paste and I'll comment thanks all the same


----------



## John-H

Try contributing something useful to the subject


----------



## barry_m2

John-H said:


> Try contributing something useful to the subject


 :lol:


----------



## John-H

Yes I know. Tall order but we live in hope bit then there is this:
https://www.ttforum.co.uk/forum/viewtop ... &t=2004739


----------



## John-H

Here's your starter for ten. Given that the infection rate is still rising (i.e. R > 1) do you think...

(1) We should impose tighter restrictions to reduce R rather than let the infection rate continue to rise?

(2) Do you think we should do this ASAP or leave it a while?


----------



## barry_m2

John-H said:


> Yes I know. Tall order but we live in hope bit then there is this:
> https://www.ttforum.co.uk/forum/viewtop ... &t=2004739


It was actually aimed at you, John.


----------



## John-H

Gosh. No answer then. You could win points :wink:


----------



## leopard

John-H said:


> Here's your starter for ten. Given that the infection rate is still rising (i.e. R > 1) do you think...
> 
> (1) We should impose tighter restrictions to reduce R rather than let the infection rate continue to rise?
> 
> (2) Do you think we should do this ASAP or leave it a while?


What do you define as tighter, as we're pretty tight as it is. The tightness seems about OK, it's the idiots that aren't adhering to the requirements of the restrictions. That's where the problem lies, witness the idiots protesting down in London and those that think nothing of travelling 200 miles to climb the Brecon Beacons for example.

There is always Marshall law of course If that is what you're intimating..


----------



## John-H

I'll take that as a no then - keep things as they are. Let's see what happens but I predict it's going to get a lot worse and the government will be forced again to act but again too late when it's got out of hand and again it will be obvious they should have acted sooner and more decisively.


----------



## StuartDB

Did China really only lose 4500 people in 12 months? out of 1.6 Billion?

we are shipping that every 3 days at the moment - although we did keep elderly and infirm well past their sell-by-dates (my wife including in that by the way (just so you dont think I am biddy-bashing) - she was number 1065 in UK for a pulmonary endarterectomy - they started those operations in the 90s (George is still alive thats over 20 years), she was operated on in 2017)

so is that why we are dying off? plus over 40% adult obese - I am not a football hooligan fan, but it was shameful when the Russians just kung-fu'd the English fatties throwing plastic chairs and a large working-class population from ethnic minorities which are apparently more likely to carry the "death-by-morning" gene.

I do get annoyed with Elite Athletes deemed they do more good than bad - so take "Arsenal Ladies" (probably not allowed to call them that anymore) Arsenal Football Team _but not the Men_ (And I am still an Arsenal Fan by the way)

They are 
1. Allowed to play Football
2. Allowed to spend Christmas in Dubai
3. Allowed to catch COVID
4. Allowed to suspend the game because they are self-isolating

No-one "told off" because 3 Arsenal women were on business over Christmas on the beach catching and spreading a disease which kills people.


----------



## barry_m2

John-H said:


> Gosh. No answer then. You could win points :wink:


I don't want to play your games, John.

I see the affects of people that can't understand or follow simple instructions and how it hits frontline nurses.

I don't need to see your tabloid pasted graphs, or listen to your government bashing comments. I can see where the actual problems lie first hand. I do read a lot of your comments on here and it's quite clear what your agenda is, which is why I haven't commented for a long time, and why I won't be any more.

The affects of how covid affects a frontline worker is something I see every day. And not something I want to discuss with someone who posts up the things that you do.

Maybe spend some time focusing on the positives. It's what people need right now.


----------



## leopard

barry_m2 said:


> John-H said:
> 
> 
> 
> Gosh. No answer then. You could win points :wink:
> 
> 
> 
> I don't want to play your games, John.
> 
> I see the affects of people that can't understand or follow simple instructions and how it hits frontline nurses.
> 
> I don't need to see your tabloid pasted graphs, or listen to your government bashing comments. I can see where the actual problems lie first hand. I do read a lot of your comments on here and it's quite clear what your agenda is, which is why I haven't commented for a long time, and why I won't be any more.
> 
> The affects of how covid affects a frontline worker is something I see every day. And not something I want to discuss with someone who posts up the things that you do.
> 
> Maybe spend some time focusing on the positives. It's what people need right now.
Click to expand...

Quite right [smiley=thumbsup.gif]


----------



## John-H

barry_m2 said:


> John-H said:
> 
> 
> 
> Gosh. No answer then. You could win points :wink:
> 
> 
> 
> I don't want to play your games, John.
> 
> I see the affects of people that can't understand or follow simple instructions and how it hits frontline nurses.
> 
> I don't need to see your tabloid pasted graphs, or listen to your government bashing comments. I can see where the actual problems lie first hand. I do read a lot of your comments on here and it's quite clear what your agenda is, which is why I haven't commented for a long time, and why I won't be any more.
> 
> The affects of how covid affects a frontline worker is something I see every day. And not something I want to discuss with someone who posts up the things that you do.
> 
> Maybe spend some time focusing on the positives. It's what people need right now.
Click to expand...

It's positive to have more than the usual emoticon reply and it wasn't a game but an encouragement for a more detailed response and it worked. I apologise if I was being a bit provocative to that end.

Please understand where I'm coming from - an engineering scientific background and I tend to look at evidence dispassionately and it frustrates me when politics gets in the way and prevents a logical solution. It's also sad that the important details can't be discussed if the discussion becomes personalised to distract from the substance. My graphs are my own by the way.

To me, it's obvious that the solution is to suppress the virus to the point that you can handle the residual infection through track trace and isolate and you need to act swiftly because of the exponential rise - not delay and seed the curve. They've managed this in other countries and we are an island but we've allowed the numbers to rise too far with one in 50 now infected making a trip to the supermarket a hazard.

I don't believe that it's getting out of hand now due to the minority that "can't follow simple instructions" as you put it. Just look at the evidence. We now have a virus with a higher R0 value which obviously requires stricter intervention but we have a lock down that is not as strict as we had back in March last year and we should have acted sooner following scientific advice. How can it be expected to work?
We have garden centres open, DIY stores, nurseries and the schools half full of children of so called essential workers like everybody is an essential worker because the definition has expanded. It's not like Christmas day on the roads like it was in March but more like normal traffic. We had the encouragement of Christmas with crowded shops when we could have suggested delaying or cancelling Christmas. What's more important, carrying on as usual or saving lives? That's also down to the government - holding onto expectations of a normal or relaxed Christmas up until the last moment when people had already made their plans.

We are mixing too much and the scientific advice is that with the higher R0 we need to mix less to keep the virus under control - and the failure to implement that advice is down to the government - not individuals who have received mixed messaging and now tire and perhaps cut corners. That's only natural. Government messaging and intervention needs to account for this and the mistakes made and account for increased transmission. We need to make it financially viable to self isolate. The public need trustworthy leadership. We need to follow the science and not treat it like a negotiation between scientific advice and civil liberty political sensitivity with an inevitable unsatisfactory half way house that satisfies neither but results in more death.


----------



## John-H

Some very interesting discussions about vaccine second dose delay effectiveness including viral escape mutant possibility, different vaccine for second dose implications and how vaccine effectiveness is calculated: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000r605


----------



## John-H

How far are you allowed to go to deliver a local message?










https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/ ... e-23304712

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... cise-rules


----------



## John-H

Half a pepper. Half a tomato. The end of a carrot. Less than half an onion.

You've no doubt heard about the food boxes sent by private companies contracted by the government to provide poor children to live on after Marcus Rashford's intervention. Apparently they get £30 per box to cover 10 days (school time not weekends). What's in the box isn't worth £30 like the voucher scheme previously could have provided directly. Someone is making a profit at poor children's and the taxpayer's expense.

Tell your MP: Stop private firms profiteering from hungry children: https://r.ippl.es/mp-meal-boxes/

Petition: https://you.38degrees.org.uk/petitions/ ... els-fiasco?


----------



## StuartDB

The lesson I hope all these poor children learn from this awful nightmare, is wear a condom, get an implant, go on the pill, only have same seed relationships... I am sure that wouldn't wish this situation in their worst enemies.

Parents die, get ill, split up, are made redundant etc and it is always the children that suffer... (unless you have rich parents.. then it's double presents and guilty parents giveaways) luckily my wife and I are just about still together, she will never work again and is entitled to nothing.

I cannot believe the woman interpret
Interview said they are trying to make free meals exciting to cook etc... the kids just want food or money and the parents just want food, money and broadband.. but a controlled cooking lesson.


----------



## StuartDB

Had a liver biopsy for Thursday cancelled today.

Was referred 3 years ago to haematology to check for haemochromatosis, after 18 months of 2 blood test I was referred to hepatology after 6 months of 1 blood test, I was booked for a fibroscan then after 6 months I had a fibro scan (May 2020) that came back as stage 2 fibrosis. After 6 months and no contact from hepatology the haematology department booked me for 3 monthly venesection (blood letting) and advised I checked why no contact from hepatology. I contacted them and they found my 'missing file' (in lorenzo... they can lose people like in Tron) the consultant said oh we have never spoken to you, this is quite serious, we need a biopsy) in December this was booked for January (a 40 min consultation about the operation, booked cov id test etc)

Last Friday was called and told to go to a different day ward, on Monday I was called and asked why I missed a covid test at 9.10? I don't have a covid test today. I was told to go to outside the Swannary and dish ext 6610... oh okay then they are doing their own tests... at lunch time Monday I got a covid appointment booking for 4 hours ago.

Today I phoned and explained the confusion and has my covid test moved..?

Oh I will call you back in 30 minutes...

-----

Ring Ring... Ring Ring...

Hi hepatology secretary here, we are moving your appointment....and..er...

Why? I booked 2 days of holiday, for this...

'CoronaVirus'

What do you mean.. Coronavirus?

The pandemic... we cannot do your procedure because of Coronavirus!

Has the surgeon got Coronavirus?

No, we just need to move the appointment.

We are really sorry and will be in touch with another appointment in March...

You will just cancel that one too, won't you! (That was not a question)

Well hopefully not mr bai...

Click.....

‐-------

Essentially, all they are doing is booking appointments and cancelling them so they don't get fined, but that pre-dates Coronavirus. When I spoke to the hepatology consultant after chasing them up... she said 'the Haematology consultant said you didn't need venesection, but I can see you had a venesection last month, has anything changed?" I said "I think he assumed you wouldn't take 9 months to speak to me."

Tell me how a day surgery biopsy cannot be carried because of covid? It's just being used as an excuse, no explanation, just 'Coronavirus'

We need to bring back more retired nurses...


----------



## John-H

Sorry to hear all that. I think there's a lot of similar experiences given the pressure on the NHS.

Informative episode of More or Less today:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000r4t9

Confirms and explains about the new variant having a higher R0 and therefore that other measures will be required to keep R < 1 despite vaccination for quite some time and that increased transmission is worse than being a more individually lethal virus so we need to be strict about minimising all the means of transmission.


----------



## StuartDB

Hmmm I was looking for sympathy, my complaint is that 'Coronavirus' is being used as an excuse for essentially everything.

To be fair for a year now, the scientists told us that when a virus mutates to be more transmissible it loses its virulence, as part of being more transmissible means it is recognised quicker and dealt with quicker, so let's imagine there's 200,000 new infections a day its probably 1% mortality.. it would be interesting to see if a vaccine beats community saturation. Probably only another 6 months and it'll be through most people. I good use case will be some of these areas which have 8% infection, in 4 weeks surely most people would have had it. So will they be immune?


----------



## John-H

You have it. We all need our health - it's the most important thing in life.

There's some good news today regarding your question. Public Health England tracked six and a half thousand health care workers who had the virus and concluded that surviving the virus gives you 83% immunity from catching it again for at least five months (the duration of the study so far). Some did catch it again 44 cases were detected, about half had no symptoms but a few had high enough levels of the virus to spread it to others. The lead author of the study said that the virus was here tho stay and we will have to continue with precautions for the foreseeable future.

It could be presumed that vaccination will also give high levels of immunity but of course without having to be infected first. Your 1% mortality presumption could account for 600,000 deaths if the whole population were eventually infected so it would be better the have the vaccine instead to avoid that. We have had 100,000 corona virus deaths so far.

The issue of herd immunity, whereby the virus naturally dies out because of the lack of spread of infection to susceptible hosts, is something that can only be achieved once the level of vaccination protection plus infection derived immunity is high enough.

This new variant of Corona virus appears to have an R0 (unhindered reproduction number) = 5.2 which means that we need 81% immunity protection (1 - 1/R0) to achieve herd immunity with R (effective reproduction number) < 1. Vaccination effectiveness multiplies with vaccine take up so a 70% effective vaccine taken up by only 70% of the population would only give 49% protection - so you can see we would have to have higher take up and a higher vaccine effectiveness to get over 81% protection. If the second delayed vaccine dose gives perhaps 90% protection then it's achievable.

Now it's a race against time and mutations of the virus into more infectious strains to roll out the vaccine effectively. Until then we will still need to use social distancing, masks and other precautions to keep the R < 1.


----------



## Nilathis

John-H said:


> You have it. We all need our health - it's the most important thing in life.
> 
> There's some good news today regarding your question. Public Health England tracked six and a half thousand health care workers who had the virus and concluded that surviving the virus gives you 83% immunity from catching it again for at least five months (the duration of the study so far). Some did catch it again 44 cases were detected, about half had no symptoms but a few had high enough levels of the virus to spread it to others. The lead author of the study said that the virus was here tho stay and we will have to continue with precautions for the foreseeable future.
> 
> It could be presumed that vaccination will also give high levels of immunity but of course without having to be infected first. Your 1% mortality presumption could account for 600,000 deaths if the whole population were eventually infected so it would be better the have the vaccine instead to avoid that. We have had 100,000 corona virus deaths so far.
> 
> The issue of herd immunity, whereby the virus naturally dies out because of the lack of spread of infection to susceptible hosts, is something that can only be achieved once the level of vaccination protection plus infection derived immunity is high enough.
> 
> This new variant of Corona virus appears to have an R0 (unhindered reproduction number) = 5.2 which means that we need 81% immunity protection (1 - 1/R0) to achieve herd immunity with R (effective reproduction number) < 1. Vaccination effectiveness multiplies with vaccine take up so a 70% effective vaccine taken up by only 70% of the population would only give 49% protection - so you can see we would have to have higher take up and a higher vaccine effectiveness to get over 81% protection. If the second delayed vaccine dose gives perhaps 90% protection then it's achievable.
> 
> Now it's a race against time and mutations of the virus into more infectious strains to roll out the vaccine effectively. Until then we will still need to use social distancing, masks and other precautions to keep the R < 1.


I absolutely agree with you. It is very scary because of what is happening in the world and more and more outbreaks of a new type of coronavirus are very scary. It seems to me that the only way out of the situation is to individually improve the immune system of each of us. As soon as the coronavirus began, I, together with my family, began to eat more balanced, add various nutritional supplements and vitamin complexes to my diet in order to prepare my body for a future illness. I use vitamins from Immune Defense. If you have not heard about this company, then I advise you to pay attention and go to the page https://immunedefence.info/studies to read scientific research about the ingredients they use in products. I like these vitamin complexes because they use 100% natural ingredients in all products so that I, as a user, receive the necessary vitamins and minerals necessary specifically for my immune system.


----------



## StuartDB

there must be some "Brazilian Variant COVID versus England Variant COVID" memes somewhere already?

like the old thong one with them sitting on a wall.


----------



## wsantos

StuartDB said:


> there must be some "Brazilian Variant COVID versus England Variant COVID" memes somewhere already?
> 
> like the old thong one with them sitting on a wall.


Jokes apart, this new variant is a huge myth. I'm Brazilian/British and there is absolutely nothing being said in Brazil at the moment about any local variant. Having said that, Brazil had reportedly identified over 40 variants since the beginning of the pandemic. And both leading vaccines were mostly tested on Brazilian "Guinea pigs" 

Sent from my SM-G975F using Tapatalk


----------



## StuartDB

Brazil has the best prison system where your family can move into the prison..

Although, a bit like Mexico and 'femicide' which I think is actually what you squirt onto a contraceptive sponge. When questioned by that tiny little blond English woman (Stacey Dooly), the in-mates said 'they would not be killed for no reason, maybe they looked at another man.'

Still doesn't change the fact I think there must be some meme, with a little Brazilian virus, and a massive English virus both wearing thongs the early 2000s meme is probably more famous than ceiling cat or the anna kornakova virus. (I cannot believe my auto spell correction actually made 'Anna Coronakova Virus')


----------



## John-H

In Bulgaria, Poland and Denmark, workers on sick pay get 80% of their salary. In Germany, Croatia and the Netherlands, it's 70%. In all but four countries in Europe, it's more than 50%.

In the UK, Statutory Sick Pay is just £94.25 per week, or around 20% of the average income.

To get the disease under control, everyone must self-isolate if they have symptoms or if they have come into contact with someone with Covid-19. But without better and more universal sick pay, many workers are currently unable to stay at home - because they simply can't afford to.

This is a public health emergency. With record-breaking numbers of people admitted to hospital with Covid-19, there is no time to waste.

*Sign the petition to level up sick pay*

We can't beat the virus unless people can afford to self-isolate.


----------



## John-H




----------



## StuartDB

Hopefully, now they have blocked football players having business meetings on beaches in Dubai and bringing #GrannyKillingDiseases back to spread around London. It'll calm down.

My sister and brother in law, foster 3 kids, the youngest was sent home with a temp. and home test kit, he had a temperature for about 4 hours in total, and the kit came back with a positive. none of his siblings or 54 year old foster parents had any symptoms. Surely, that was a false positive.

Maybe we are actually at 300k new cases a day and will smash through the remaining 30,000,000 uninfected in the 6 months?

Loving Pfizer unable to deliver what they promised, because the US are demanding more than their pre-order. Oxford is no better, they said they had our 100,000,000 doses and could have a 1,000,000,000 by September 2021. It lasts for months in a fridge, so where are they?

Lots of people inject themselves so why are they not being given to communities to distribute? I injected clexane for months (admittedly just in a tummy, but there's skill to find soft skin instead of hardened dead patches), and also mixed my own antibiotics and slow injection (bolus) through a piccline for 3 months. And my wife has to inject a similar type of heparin (enoxiparin) if her INR is less than 2.5 so she could poke people too.

Should really be able to by the Oxford jabs from amazon if you ask me


----------



## FNChaos

StuartDB said:


> Lots of people inject themselves so why are they not being given to communities to distribute?


Moderna's vaccine needs to be stored at -20c and Pfizer's at -70c right up until injection, making wide-spread distribution problematic. Supposedly some of the other vaccines still under trial won't require extreme cooling?


----------



## StuartDB

Yeah the Oxford one just needs a fridge the US refused to approve it, as the trials were not carried out properly.

some of the trials were incorrectly dosed, which showed a better efficacy. They should probably just submit the live results, India want to approve it as they have a manufacturing plant ready and 1.3billion people. Also it is only about 3 GBP a dose instead of 15 GBP Pfizer or 25 merderno GBP - as it is old fashioned not INA ?

I think someone died from the Oxford Vaccine Trials too maybe in Brazil? But it transpires he/she was given the menagitis 'placedo' vaccine instead.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-54634518


----------



## John-H

There's a 30,000 late trial ruining in the US for the AZ vaccine and I believe the FDA are waiting for the results of that.

India has approved the AZ vaccine apparently.

Yes, the death in Brazil was in a volunteer that received the placebo apparently so was coincidental and not a safety concern.

Coincidence could be a problem going forward as we are certainly going to have people die or become ill coincidentally after receiving the vaccine which could be pounced on by conspiracy theorists and anti-vaccers.


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## toddjoseph

I've been thinking, what is it that will come out of all this? Equality! No one is an exception. This situation has shown us that we are all the same regardless of our religion, culture, whether we are poor or rich.


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## John-H

toddjoseph said:


> I've been thinking, what is it that will come out of all this? Equality! No one is an exception. This situation has shown us that we are all the same regardless of our religion, culture, whether we are poor or rich.


A very good sentiment although reading this article is a reminder of how unequal things still are and that some take advantage of the pandemic to increase their own advantages further over those who cannot:

https://bylinetimes.com/2021/01/04/vacc ... l-company/


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## StuartDB

"... this article is a reminder of how unequal things still are and that some take advantage of the pandemic to increase their own advantages further over those who cannot.."

Like Pfizer and Merderna who are selling vaccines for profit.


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## John-H

They aren't individuals setting up a company to take advantage of the pandemic whilst being a government minister in charge of vaccine distribution with a £25 million property portfolio and rules to follow about conflict of interest. Making a profit may be a link but he's hardly equal to most individual people.

In fact Axstra Zeneca are providing the vaccine at cost price and are making no profit for the duration of the pandemic - a far better example to set.


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## StuartDB

Yeah, I'm not sure how AZ work now as India created their own plant, so will AZ get any money for that? They shouldn't as its not for profit, although can the Indian manufacturer may a profit?


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## StuartDB

John-H said:


> They aren't individuals setting up a company to take advantage of the pandemic...


We do live in a capitalist country full of opportunity, every holes a goal. Essentially, is it a pyramid scheme?
No... then it is a legal business opportunity..
Yes... turn the pyramid upside down then its okay....


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## StuartDB

lol.... so essentially Celebrity TV Doctors were excited about doing one dose followed by 12 weeks before the second dose and how amazing it will be with 89% efficacy after the 1st dose and then more immunity built up before the 2nd dose 12 weeks later. even on a RNA vaccine never given to humans  

now the BMA have said they are not happy with 12 weeks and it should be 6 weeks (but still not evidence based)

and now the real world tests in Israel for over 60s - say the Pfizer vaccine is actually supposed to be 52% efficacy after the 1st dose, but is actually only 33%


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## John-H

The Pfizer vaccine is ~50% effective from the clinical trial data if you count infections from day one to 28 days averaged after the first dose but if you count from day 10 it's 89% effective. That's because it's had more of a chance to work later.

The 30% more deadly figure comes from deaths following a positive test result for the new variant compared to the old variant - however hospitalisation mortality rates are the same for new and old variants - so the data is not yet clear and the 30% figure is unreliable.

The new variant having up to 74% increased transmission takes the R0 value from around R0 = 3 to R0 = 5.2 which means that to achieve herd immunity in a population you would now need 81% effectiveness (1-1/R0).

Even after a second dose giving 93% protection, if only 70% of the population take up the vaccine you only have 65% population protection (0.93 x 0.7) and none of the vaccines are yet licenced for children. This means that without taking extra precautions R would be above one and the virus would spread exponentially. So we are unlikely ever to achieve herd immunity and will need to live with the virus and take extra precautions for some time.

However, surviving infection gives you 83% protection and the vaccines prevent severe illness, so eventually once everyone has protection the virus will be akin to catching a seasonal cold.


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## StuartDB

This 33% came from Israel 200,000 over 60s data, so whose new variant is that one?

I'm loving that WHO may be allowed to inspect the Bio Facility in Wuhan now 12 months after requesting access.

And as 1 in 3 people are asymptotic, is the 33% based on the 2 in 3 people or just those 1 in 3 already.


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## John-H

Pets may need to be vaccinated to stop Covid-19 spread, scientists suggest


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## John-H

Medical grade masks 'should be made compulsory' on public transport and in shops


I've long said a bit of cloth isn't good enough as all of the exhaled invisible aerosol in breath ranging from 10nm to 10µm which can contain thousands of 100nm virus particles pass through largely unhindered. FFP3 ( EN 149) grade at least gives 99% filtration of 0.3 µm (300 nm) and above particles FFP2 95%.


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## John-H

Today we reached 100,000 deaths.

On 17 March, Sir Patrick Vallance, the government's chief scientific adviser, told a committee of MPs *"If we can get this down to 20,000 and below, that is a good outcome in terms of where we would hope to get to with this outbreak"*.

Many people scoffed at the modelling that produced higher figures.


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## StuartDB

those figures were based on the deaths in China


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## John-H

China were more strict. We acted too late and relaxed too early. The one good thing we did was invest is vaccines.


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## FNChaos

FWIW, I got my second Moderna vaccine today (and I'm still alive)


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## StuartDB

There's so many other attributes in this.

We have an aging population, which had actually created a massive issue where 4-6 people needed to work to pay for every elderly person. Plus little quirks like not so many people smoke, which actually kills the virus.

I still can't believe the naivety of Chinese people one person in radio said it is spread by pets so dogs and cats were tossed out of apartment blocks.. which did raise conversations about how high can you throw a cat out a window where it will actually survive, as it reaches its terminal velocity and is the right way round and prepared.. its a difficult thing to trial. But I think it has been tested.

Also, why is it so quiet from there? I'm not really sure I trust their numbers, or maybe they released a new antidote virus.. I think I said that'll be a good thing to do.


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## StuartDB

FNChaos said:


> FWIW, I got my second Moderna vaccine today (and I'm still alive)


Winner... that would never have happened if Trump was still the boss


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## StuartDB

I'm not sure the UK have had any Moderna vaccines delivered.

But with the UK finally completely out of the EU, I understand Germany are setting up check points and checking zee papers, of all imports and exports.


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## Frederick

Hello everyone, it's so sad to think about all these people who have lost their job because of the coronavirus.... Personally I also got fired, and now I feel really depressed because of it. I believe that many of you all here have the same feelings right now... I hope that one day I will finally find a good job somewhere, for example, some of the sainsburys delivery driver jobs or something of the kind. I want to start travelling again as well because I'm too tired to stay at home all the time...


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## StuartDB

I understand Brexit now.. Peston Twitter Explaination






so it is only a few minutes long but the money shot is from about 1.20 where Germany, France, Netherlands and Italy created a "International Vaccine Alliance" and agreed to be supplied by AZ in June - then the EU told them they could not make this deal and instead the EU will be working as one. Then as we know took an extra 2 months trying to get them super cheap (1/10th of the cost of the Pfizer Vaccine) putting them 3 months behind ! and there is a bit of a hoo haa regarding transparency of the contract between AZ and the EC.


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## John-H

They were not "told" as every member state can make sovereign decisions just like the UK did to buy and approve Pfizer and AZ whilst still operating under EU law, it's just that all concerned thought it was the best approach.

The EU also backed some vaccines that didn't work out such as the French Pasteur Institute and Sanofi. It's all been a bit of a gamble and the UK backed some successful manufacturers and naturally got in early with Oxford and home producer AstraZeneca.

Producing the vaccine culture is not an easy process as it's a bit like experimental brewing. Batches can fail and one plant may help another.

Sanofi have now agreed to help manufacture it's competitor Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine by the end of the year. It takes time but is a good example of how the pharmaceutical industry is global and collaborative with supply chains for various components crossing many borders.

The row between the EU and AZ is unfortunate and a reflection of the pressure both are under trying to get vaccine produced.

We don't want rows and nationalist attitudes to prevail because if that were to happen global vaccine production would grind to a halt. The WHO have warned about this and also highlighted that whilst rich nations may have got off to a good start in the whole of Sub Saharan Africa less than 100 vaccine jabs have been given.

If we don't vaccinate the whole world equitably the virus will mutate and return in a more virulent form to those who thought they had an advantage in protection.


----------



## StuartDB

> If we don't vaccinate the whole world equitably the virus will mutate and return in a more virulent form to those who thought they had an advantage in protection.


Yep 100%, so the EU in their total incompetence have failed 900m people and are continuing to do so.. they are trying to cure the illness by stealing other people's vaccines.. they need to buy and fund new vaccines themselves, not stop other people being vaccinated.

Are they actually Magpies? You don't increase the amount of birds by stealing eggs that just moves the birds.

I'm actually a bit annoyed that EU have vaccinated 11m people? How come we've only had 7.5m people vaccined.

I hope the EU don't realise I have 20 vaccines in my wine cellar.. we were told keep them quiet incase the SS come knocking.


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## John-H

Sharing vaccines and production is obviously the best thing for us all to do rather than hogg them. Especially as the UK has pre-ordered three times more than we need. Glad you agree.


----------



## StuartDB

JH --:| please just dont do your EU sucking up stuff here - the closest if Sturgeon but she is even not speaking as the Scottish Independence followers also have the Internet, TV and Radio - there is absolutely no defence in that drunken Trumpism behaviour, followed by an intervention to the president by other, followed by it is a mistaken communication apology, followed by Macron saying well AZ doesn't work anyway, followed by a mockery of the EU EC - what is this, the worst outcome of this - is extremists in Ireland tell Boris to do the same Article 16 and cancel it the other way <-- thats a shame, as we looked good standing back and pointing.

What on earth will Biden think? he only like Ireland (being that he is Irish and good mates with the IRA) The EU EC President looked like she had a hormone overload or was bi-polar.... and I still cannot believe the French MEP who said if you want to stop the Brexit Article 16 - tell AstraZeneca to give us the Vaccines from the English Plants

I did too read the Contract and yes 5.4 does look like it includes the UK as an EU site, but there's a lot of other language around which doesn't mean "the EU just gets them"

here it is attached.. Although, maybe JH can remind the countries in the EU they were entitled to do their own deals even though the European Commission told them they couldn't.

View attachment APA_-_AstraZeneca.pdf.pdf


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## John-H

I think you need reminding that each nation is a sovereign state capable of making their own decisions which they did as did we.

But glad you agree now that production facilities as well as vaccines are best shared and allowed to operate freely in this pandemic.

The WHO have called on the UK to pause its vaccination programme once the vulnerable have been vaccinated and share surplus vaccines with other countries so their vulnerable can be vaccinated before continuing.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.thegua ... vulnerable


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## StuartDB

So.... with the news of the incredible NHS Hero sadly admitted into hospital with Covid19, is it 'in the public interest' to know if they were given a vaccine? Or is that media Harrassment ?

https://www.cps.gov.uk/legal-guidance/m ... ting-media

It's a tight line the media tread, and fame tends to put the famous person onto the other side.. eg Diana, Meghan etc

Edit... so no he hadn't as he was already ill

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11408911/ ... -hospital/


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## SwissJetPilot

Post deleted by user.


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## John-H

That's a little out of date - things move fast. In fact it was our Prime Minister that first threatened to invoke article 16 of the Northern Ireland protocol and the press didn't bat an eyelid (always wondered where that expression came from?). But then when the EU suggested they would (they didn't actually) there was an uproar and within hours they apologised that it had been a mistake. Not unnaturally the press have made much of it, and again accused them of imposing export bans when in fact they hadn't - just imposed a monitoring and authorisation controls - yet again, quietly unnoticed, the UK has imposed an actual export ban on two anti-inflammatory drugs for COVID-19 treatment and nobody makes a fuss.

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/pressco ... ent_21_314

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/no ... -controls/


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## FNChaos

SwissJetPilot said:


> _"A lot of people in the Biden administration see Brexit as a kind of British Trumpism, as a populist rejection of the international order. But that view simply cannot be reconciled with what is going on now. The EU, to cover its own failure, is peremptorily demanding that British vaccines be handed over, while the United Kingdom continues to make the case for a rules-based global approach."_


I think a lot of Americans see Brexit as analogous to our own MAGA movement, with US support for Brexit falling predictably along similar political lines.

IMHO, a dangerous rise in nationalism / nationalistic pride seems to be on the upswing in many Countries around the world (US & UK included). Of course there is nothing wrong with supporting / defending your country, but unchecked zealotry can become deadly if pushed too far. Über alles :roll:

Currently we have a generation of adults who, for the most part have never served in a war (with a good chance their parents didn't either). The lessons of cooperation & alliances that were learned during those conflicts have been lost or diminished over time. This in turn leads to more people thinking that they need to "regain" lost 'sovereignty' (and a feeling that there are no consequences for doing so).

Unfortunately I also think we (US & UK) underestimate the fact that other Countries have similar feelings and are surprised when there is push back...


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## FNChaos

RIP Captain Tom








https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-55881753
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/captain-tom-moore-dies-age-100-covid/


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## StuartDB

RIP Sir Tom Moore

He had a full life especially the last year of it...

Let's hope he's memory is not used as some sort of Pro or Anti Vaccine Ammunition... I'm suprised he didn't have a vaccine as they started them nearly 2 months ago, and apparently didn't have one due to pneumonia.


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## John-H

74,000 children have likely already suffered from Long Covid in the UK. Previously healthy children with some left paralysed and in pain for months with long COVID-19 symptoms including fatigue, brain fog, muscle pain, seizures and even paralysis. Calls for vaccination programme to be extended to children following realisation that younger age groups are more seriously affected than previously thought.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/l ... m-23455504


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## StuartDB

When my daughter was a Great Ormond Street as a student nurse, she said they used chemotherapy to cure some children who were paralysed for no physical reason.


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## FNChaos

Several news sources are reporting that the AstraZeneca vaccine's effectiveness against the Africa B.1.351 strain is "_substantially reduced_" when compared to it's effectiveness on the 'original' Covid-19 strain.
They are however cautioning that the study was limited in size (~2000 participants) so ?
oxford-astrazeneca-covid-shot-less-effective

They are also reporting that the Johnson & Johnson and the Novavax vaccines show reduced efficacy against the S, African variant. variants-covid-19-vaccines

So far the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines seem to be fairing well, but new mutations could change all that.

Note: AstroZenica, J&J and Novavax are all DNA / adenovirus vector based vaccines (similar to the way annual Flu vaccines are manufactured) where as the Moderna & Pfizer vaccines are mRNA based.

The big benefit of adenovirus vaccines are they aren't easily damaged and can be kept under normal refrigeration for longer periods. The benefits from the mRNA vaccines is they appear to more effective on mutations since they 'teach' your body to make and recognize the protein spikes rather than recognize a particular virus's 'fingerprint'.

My guess is we will need annual / semi-annual booster shots or a combination of vaccines for the foreseeable future to keep up with the mutations... 
:?


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## StuartDB

This is mother-nature controlling humans, unless of course it is inferno, utopia, infinity war (Thanos), logans run etc etc (eg population control) - maybe even "Ancient Aliens" they had 2 episodes on how aliens may control population and what bacteria and viruses can live outside the space stations in the "vacuum of space".

I have a feeling there will be some civil issues, riots, looting etc etc - we cannot indefinitely keep funding people and as soon as that stops they wont spend their furlough etc on other peoples goods. Brexit is probably the best timing so we really can shut up shop and once 10% of the population have expired and 25% have migrated away we can mine the channel and stick our heads in the sand for 50 years. We must almost be at bartering already to avoid taxation and worse than that you stay off the HMRC radar. Pasta is currency and I need the leak in my conservatory fixing, any offers?

After a disaster some people have disappeared their partners / spouses etc etc and saying they were there - I do wonder whether there are many planned covid deaths - for life insurance / inheritance / abused retaliation - there must be some organised crime groups who are keeping multiple infectious people able to "accidently" bump into a mark for money? If I recall, the young (34 year old) Chinese doctor who was treating COV ID patients at the start in China had 20 different covid infections when he died.


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## FNChaos

StuartDB said:


> This is mother-nature controlling humans


Well, being at the top of the food chain means there aren't a lot of checks on human population growth.
Two checks that do come to mind are disease and war. Both tend to thrive when we crowd together and /or when resources become limited.



StuartDB said:


> Pasta is currency and I need the leak in my conservatory fixing, any offers?


...and I thought it was butter and bullets?


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## StuartDB

Butter only works in winter 

I do have a couple of unopened Lupak salted at the back of the fridge though, just in case.


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## John-H

I do like pasta dishes and most of mine have a high chilli content which whilst I've no peer reviewed evidence that it protects against the virus I'm willing to continue to self administer it on the precautionary principal :wink:


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## John-H

The reported South Africa trial was with 2026 people with a median age of 31. Nineteen of the 748 people in the group that were given the vaccine were infected with the new variant, compared with 20 out of 714 people in the group that were given a placebo.

Researchers also conducted laboratory experiments on blood samples from people who had been vaccinated and found a significant reduction in the activity levels of vaccine-generated antibodies against the B.1.351 variant compared with other lineages.

The researchers compared the levels of infection by the new variant in people who showed evidence of having previously had Covid-19 with the levels of infection in people who did not, and found no difference.

The sturdy has not yet been published or peer reviewed.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytime ... a.amp.html

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.thegua ... tudy-finds


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## John-H

The PM did not heed the advice of his own scientists - who accurately predicted the winter spike months ago (Image: REUTERS)

*New documents reveal SAGE accurately predicted the winter spike in infections as early as July - but the government did not heed warnings*


----------



## leopard

John-H said:


> I do like pasta dishes and most of mine have a high chilli content which whilst I've no peer reviewed evidence that it protects against the virus I'm willing to continue to self administer it on the precautionary principal :wink:


Lots of evidence that carbohydrates, aka sugar, increases insulin resistance and you'll probably die prematurely of some kind of metabolic related syndrome instead :lol:


----------



## leopard

John-H said:


> The PM did not heed the advice of his own scientists - who accurately predicted the winter spike months ago (Image: REUTERS)
> 
> *New documents reveal SAGE accurately predicted the winter spike in infections as early as July - but the government did not heed warnings*


So what, I dare say you wouldn't know which way to turn either given the circumstances.


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## StuartDB

The best thing about politics is you cannot have an opinion about them on forums about pandemics, how many people have died since Biden took over the US..

Let's face it 10% of the UK will expire and 25% will migrate away. Then as long a we open up the coal mines and sell iron brew and marmite we'll be in the money.

Anyway I'll just remind everyone that now than 350m a week extra has already been given to the NHS, so... the bus was short of true.

I was at hospital today and they didn't sound like doctors and nurses are dropping dead, and there were no queues for the covid vaccinations, in fact I parked in a closed carpark (closed for vaccination queues, but I just moved the cone (if you look like that is what you are supposed to be doing, nobody questions you)) and the left over vaccines are taken up by staff, and local police also get a 'we have 3 vaccines left messages, at the end of the day)

It's very sad... but in 7 or 8 years some of us will be glad we're through it all..


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## John-H

leopard said:


> John-H said:
> 
> 
> 
> I do like pasta dishes and most of mine have a high chilli content which whilst I've no peer reviewed evidence that it protects against the virus I'm willing to continue to self administer it on the precautionary principal :wink:
> 
> 
> 
> Lots of evidence that carbohydrates, aka sugar, increases insulin resistance and you'll probably die prematurely of some kind of metabolic related syndrome instead :lol:
Click to expand...

Hmmm...



leopard said:


> John-H said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The PM did not heed the advice of his own scientists - who accurately predicted the winter spike months ago (Image: REUTERS)
> 
> *New documents reveal SAGE accurately predicted the winter spike in infections as early as July - but the government did not heed warnings*
> 
> 
> 
> So what, I dare say you wouldn't know which way to turn either given the circumstances.
Click to expand...

The evidence is against you as detailed in this very thread. I criticised the Prime Minister for shaking hands with everybody when the scientific advice advice was to avoid contact and wash your hands. Not something I would have done clearly and we know what happened to him.

I criticised him for being too slow to introduce the first lockdown. Lockdown stopped transmission but the deaths in the weeks following were due to the infections going back three or four weeks prior to lockdown which were doubling every two to three days. He waited until we had 359 deaths before acting. Had he acted when SAGE advised a week earlier when deaths were only 89 the infections wouldn't have doubled as many times in that intervening week and the death toll would have been proportionately lessvby the same ratio.

The SAGE scientist responsible for the modelling that eventually persuaded the government to lock down agrees and says that had we acted a week earlier we could have saved 20,000 lives:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/health-52995064

That was in the early days and since then I've consistently criticised the PM for doing too little too late and relaxing too early. I warned he was going to make the same mistakes again.

Dither and delay, and being led by events is his leadership style - waiting until he's forced to act so his backbenchers can't complain.

I've been pointing this out throughout, producing graphs showing the infection rate and pointing out that the numbers are too high for test and trace to work.

I criticised the eat out to spread the virus scheme, which I had nothing to do with, that they introduced, and their encouraging of people back to work when infections were obviously too high which I criticised.

I've agreed with Keir Starmer that the tiers were not working and calling for a lockdown for which Johnson ridiculed him but then two weeks later he introduced a lockdown blaming the Kent variant as an excuse when the infection rate alone should have made him take action.

I criticised him for his proposed relaxation over Christmas as did Starmer for which he was again ridiculed by Johnson only for Johnson to roll back his Christmas relaxation too little and too late when he'd already encouraged people to make plans.

We had 70,000 dead before Christmas and now we have 112,798 dead, the worst death rate in Europe and the hardest hit economy and don't start me on Brexit.

That's what you get when you elect an entertainment act as a leader. I'm surprised you claim I would have done the same thing when the overwhelming evidence is against such a notion.

Looking forward I'm concerned that the latest virus variants are evading some of the vaccines and we need to take tougher action over travel. We are an island but despite discovering the South African variant was here from samples taken in December we are still waiting for action. You can be assured that if we have discovered 150 cases so far the real number will be dramatically higher and as we roll out vaccines that tackle the earlier variants if the later variants evade vaccines they will become dominant.

You need to act quickly and decisively with exponential growth to prevent things getting out of hand. This government has been behind the curve.

The one thing that has been a success so far has been the vaccination roll out by the NHS. This success is due to their experience and competence and the fact the government have not handed out the contract to inexperienced private contractors like Serco and Deloitte as they did for test and trace or the crony chumocracy sandals over PPE.

Is Johnson finally learning something from what works and is that why he is reportedly removing the requirement since Cameron for the NHS to put everything out to private tender and instead encourage health authorities to work together and organise their own resources?


----------



## FNChaos

Interesting article on the confluence of left-wing antivaxers and right-wing Q-anon conspiracy nut-jobs and their affect on herd immunity...
How the Anti-Vaxxers Got Red-Pilled

Quote: "_A Pew poll in December found that only 60 percent of Americans intend to vaccinate and nearly 20 percent - or roughly 50 million adults - are dead set against it.
If that many Americans abstain from vaccination, the coronavirus will continue to circulate, and to mutate, posing a grave ongoing threat to public health_."


----------



## John-H

FNChaos said:


> Interesting article on the confluence of left-wing antivaxers and right-wing Q-anon conspiracy nut-jobs and their affect on herd immunity...
> How the Anti-Vaxxers Got Red-Pilled
> 
> Quote: "_A Pew poll in December found that only 60 percent of Americans intend to vaccinate and nearly 20 percent - or roughly 50 million adults - are dead set against it.
> If that many Americans abstain from vaccination, the coronavirus will continue to circulate, and to mutate, posing a grave ongoing threat to public health_."


Certainly a long read but very interesting. I pulled this:
_
"The hard truth is that returning to the point where Americans can go back to work or enjoy a night out at a crowded bar and be confident no one is going to get sick will require persuading millions to overcome their fear of vaccination and take a jab for the team."_

That is indeed the deal with reality people will need to grasp. The efficacy of the vaccine programme (%pro) needs to be high enough to put the virus spread into exponential decay for herd immunity and to stop mutations but the efficacy of the programme is not only proportional to the efficacy of the vaccine (%vax) but also proportional to the vaccine take up in the population (%pop) such that (%pro) = (%vax) x (%pop). If you need 80% efficacy and your vaccine is 90% effective with only 70% population coverage you only get 63% efficacy and will be doomed to continue social distancing, mask wearing and restriction on activities.


----------



## John-H

Thought we should have a graph update:



















It's quite striking that the first lockdown started at 23rd March 2020 with 67 deaths (on the day) and today daily deaths are still way above this and yet certain sections are calling for removal of all restrictions.

The delay between SAGE advising the second lockdown and the 2nd lockdown starting is also clear along with its removal too early with the introduction of tiers which clearly didn't work. The third lockdown has worked - guess what will happen if we remove all restrictions? I think we need to do some maths on this.


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## StuartDB

I think the answer is in vaccine transparency. Eg how many vaccinated people are still dying.. 
That'll encourage BAME to come forward. I think I may have a vaccine, as a carer for a vulnerable person.

But would be due in May anyway.


----------



## StuartDB

Any thoughts on the EU (maybe only Germany) considering the Russian Sputnik V. Apparently, increased side-effects, due to using human anti-gens. Also China are selling one of their recipes and process as their factory can only produce 300,000,000 doses a year.


----------



## FNChaos

StuartDB said:


> Any thoughts on the EU (maybe only Germany) considering the Russian Sputnik V. Apparently, increased side-effects, due to using human anti-gens.


Sputnik V appears to be an adenovirus based vaccine (similar to your Ox-AZ vaccine) 
Its efficacy rate is quoted to be ~ 91.6% which makes it a little more effective (at least on paper) than Ox-AZ (~ 82%)

Not sure if this is due to the fact that Sputnik uses two different human adenoviruses (Ad5 & Ad26) vs Ox-AZ's single chimp-based adenovirus (ChAdOx1) or maybe it's just a difference in testing methods, etc?

IMHO, the more options the better. If the disease mutates or becomes drug-resistant you have more weapons to fight with (maybe the UK should consider adding mRNA vaccines to the toolbox?)


----------



## StuartDB

We have Pfizer (50m) Merderna (5m) and there's a new one agreed made in the UK (65m) that's a single dose vaccine not sure if it is rNA?

And AZ said they can adapt the vaccine in 48 hours - but obviously no help if you have 10m already in the fridge.

We do have a new strain announced today which is similar to the SA vaccine.


----------



## FNChaos

Super-simplified explanation:

Adenovirus-based vaccines (Ox-AZ, J&J, Sputnik) use an adenovirus as the 'transport' mechanism to deliver a vaccine antigen (portion of the genetic code from a dangerous vector) into your body.

Adenoviruses are a family of DNA viruses related to the common cold. These viruses are easy to manipulate genetically, so if you can find one that suits your needs, it can be modified as to not cause symptoms in a human host.
A person is 'infected' with the modified virus (usually by injection) and the virus spreads but causes no ill effects.

Your body detects the 'intruder' and produces antibodies to destroy the invaders. The antigen payload contained within the adenovirus isn't capable of causing disease but it provides enough of a 'fingerprint' that your body now knows how to recognize / handle any invaders that look similar.

Should you ever come in contact with the real thing, your immune system is primed to fight before the virus has a chance to spread.

mRNA-based vaccines (Pfizer, Moderna) use 'messenger' RNA to instruct your own cell to produce proteins. 
In the case of a Covid vaccine, the protein produced from the mRNA instruction set is the same as the protein that makes up the 'spikes' found on corona viruses.

Again, your body recognizes these invaders and learns to defend itself.

With mRNA vaccines, you are given one shot to 'prime' your immune system and a second higher dose a few weeks latter to kick everything into high gear.

The benefit of this approach is no portion of a dangerous virus is used, and since you are targeting a more "generic" spike rather than a specific "fingerprint" the vaccine may 'possibly' be more effective should the virus mutate.

The downside is RNA is more fragile than DNA (DNA can repair itself). This is why the storage requirements for mRNA vaccines is more demanding.


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## StuartDB

So is the -70 degree C to stop the RNA vaccine from essentially breaking up so no longer recognisable.

China's Vaccine has to be the answer - the US believe they made covid and hardly anyone has died (if you trust their figures) and they are vaccinating the citizens although it will take about 10 years to vaccine them?


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## John-H

Here's the latest updated daily infections graph with an additional plot of the R rate over a seven day average where R = last seven days infection average / previous seven day infection average. This calculation is pretty robust as it self compensates for the slow build up of the testing capacity and the estimated larger numbers not tested as they likely stay in proportion.

R > 1 means the spread of the virus is increasing exponentially
R < 1 means the spread of the virus is decreasing exponentially

It starts off around 2.5, drops to 1 for a while after the first lockdown started with a corresponding constant infection rate for a while before falling below 1 up to when the pubs opened in July 2020 after which it went above 1 and was further boosted by the eat out to spread the virus scheme and when the schools opened. Notice where SAGE called for the second lockdown soon after when R > 1.5 and it only fell below 1 when the second lockdown started weeks later in November 2020 but then shot up again when the second lockdown ended and tiers were introduced in early December. It shows the tiers didn't work and again R didn't fall below 1 until the third lockdown started in January.

The question for the government this weekend amidst all the press speculation and clamour to relax lockdown is what can be done? Little. Clearly a return to tiers won't work and will set R above 1 again. Schools opening along with pubs would also seem to be a dubious move. Will they make the same mistakes again?

The roll out of the vaccine, if it does halt the spread of the virus rather than just prevent serious illness, has only been applied in the majority to the retired elderly so far and it won't be until the working and more mingling population is vaccinated will R be significantly affected and it will be a proportionate effect - if half the population is vaccinated the virus only has half the hosts to spread to which should halve R all things being equal. There's a long way to go yet.


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## StuartDB

I think the vaccine with the elderly will make a big difference as they account for about 70% of the declared ill. So lots of younger people will just take a test if they need help. The fact they are confident to purposely infect and treat 18-30 year olds suggests they can infect the elderly without realising and carry on and so can the elderly.

I am not sure the government are really involved that much, they are using the science so the blame falls on them if there's issues .. apart from Scotland and now Wales trying to pretend they are doing better than England is just shameful. I think Scotland are hoping to have more covid deaths than drug overdoses this year.


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## John-H

The government have decidedly not been following the science throughout because they've let the politics get in the way and made the repeated mistakes of being too slow to lock down and too early relaxing so far as shown.

The vaccine may protect the elderly and indeed they are most at risk (you double your risk of death for every six years older) but the spread of the virus is greatest with those who mix more and they are younger and still at work or even still at school. The vaccine will have a bigger effect controlling spread with this larger group - if it works to impede spread.


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## StuartDB

I had a meeting (unrelated to covid that was just small-talk) with someone in January 2021 who had just recovered from covid (3 weeks tired), he had exactly the same symptoms 13 months prior eg Dec 2019.. so was he protected for 1 year with his original infection?

There's lots of opinions about politics, lockdowns, schools opens, shuts etc.. we know discussing politics doesn't work in forums when one person controls the delete button so I'm not biting 

There will be 2 key things taught in history in 100 years, captain Tom Moore and Boris Johnson doing that speech 11 months ago, I also still have an unopened letter from the PM about Corona Virus.

My biggest regret is not buying CV19 WHO for £295 from cherished plates (March 2020 - whilst in a socially distanced queue to the GP). my biggest issue is I only buy old cars, so I would have put it onto retention for 10 years.


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## John-H

StuartDB said:


> There's lots of opinions about politics, lockdowns, schools opens, shuts etc.. we know discussing politics doesn't work in forums when one person controls the delete button so I'm not biting


Anyone can say anything they like and agree or disagree as much as they like as long as it's within site *rules* so the moderators don't have to step in. Nothing would be removed otherwise.

The Prime Minister said last night the emphasis would be to allow families to meet loved ones in care homes from 8th March, that people from different households will be allowed to meet outdoors and that schools are a priority. Details to follow.

Teaching unions have expressed concern and warned of an upsurge in infections if schools are opened too quickly.

The outdoor meeting may work in tandem with the warmer climate in the coming months but what happens when it rains or someone wants to use the loo? You can see what happened on the graph last time as R was allowed to stay >1 for so long with repeated doubling of case numbers as more relaxations were introduced. And then we only had the original strain with an R0 = 3 and the dominant strain now has an R0 = 5.2 which has a direct proportionate effect on R.


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## John-H

Very good discussion on all these lockdown and relaxation epidemiological issues in The Briefing Room:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000s9s7

For example one very good point about schools returning is not only the spread between households through children but also parents meeting at the gate and parents returning to work because they don't have to look after children. It would be better to keep parents at home and provide support for this rather than have them leave the home and mix.


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## StuartDB

My daughter is a key worker as she helps looking after key workers children in school, she also has her own children so they also go to school. I don't know how full the schools are, but she also has to record videos of making things etc to send to the other lower school children who are not at school.

The only businesses keen on getting out of lockdown is hospitality - after the massive investment they made to be cov id safe.
No school teacher of school teacher union will say the schools should be reopened as they will be blamed if we need to go into another lockdown in September.

Scotland and Wales have a much lower population density than England and probably Northern Ireland. So they can go a bit earlier

In the EU a couple of sample countries (excluding Germany as they are an anomaly, totally different behaviours, health-care etc a bit more tax, but less equivalent to NI (I wish the UK still capped NI), don't normally buy a home until they retire)

UK 
Population - 68M
Over 65s - 18.4% - 12,512,000
Cases - 4,100,000
Cases% - 6%
Cases over 65s% - 32.8%
Deaths - 120,000
Death Rate% - 2.93%

Italy
Population - 60.5m
Over 65s - 20.8% - 12,584,000
Cases - 2,780,882
Cases% - 4.6%
Cases over 65s% - 22.1%
Deaths - 95,235
Death Rate% - 3.43%

Spain
Population - 47m
Over 65s - 19.4% - 9,118,000
Cases - 3,133,122
Cases% - 6.67%
Cases over 65s% - 34.4%
Deaths - 67,101
Death Rate% - 2.1%

So essentially Italy may have less Deaths but the Death Rate is much higher - when their reported Cases reach 4.1m they will have 141,000

I still don't really trust lots of these other countries figures and I doubt they trust ours either.

With the government bonds ideas - to try and get some more cash, I would prefer a voluntary salary sacrifice of 1 or 2% of income where you can choose where it goes to. Maybe a choice of local or national services - a bit like crowd funding, and you can change each tax year where to put it.


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## StuartDB

Whilst checking flu versus cov id...

Death 1.3 times more Death Certificates contain Flu and / pneumonia compared to COV ID but Flu was not blamed for the death.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... august2020


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## StuartDB

I would like to see cigarettes provided on prescription as a form of protection against covid, not sure whether it might just be for key-workers, but feels quite dystopian? And finally pubs will start smell like pubs again.

Who is going to suggest a trial? And is it the actual smoke or the more hardy pre-scared environment?


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## StuartDB

Lol... so do Labour want Matt Hancock to resign? And be replaced with whom? Is covid going to become a political playground?

It will remind me of when David Beckham used 'Mr Loophole' to get out of a speeding fine.. essentially, everyone stalked him, photo'd, video'd him until he was caught picking up a phone whilst sitting in traffic. If the (let's face it) Labour Party are starting a witch hunt to try some form of power play to get into power in 8 years, the #ToryFanBoys will put together an 'Upload a Labour Crime' and people will be encouraged to video any wrong doing.. from 'telling their kids to shut up in the back of a car' to driving at 31 mph in a 30 zone. Just to see where any hypocrisy is.. I do love a 'complainer' being found out as no better themselves.

They are essentially stating the government are corrupt, lest not forget TonyBlair was never prosecuted for being involved in an illegal war, killing thousands of Muslim women and children.


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## John-H

A judge at a London High Court said the Secretary of State for Health, Matt Hancock, failed to comply with a public procurement law(Reuters)

The British government broke the law by failing to publish details of billions of pounds of spending on personal protective equipment during the coronavirus pandemic, a London court ruled on Friday.

There's no doubt that the government had to be more agile over the last year to protect the people of the UK from Covid-19 and keep the NHS from collapsing.

By July 2020, £18 billion had been committed in 8,600 contracts, more than half (£10.5 billion) of that spending was awarded without a competitive tender process amid accusations of cronyism and chumocracy.

On Friday night it became clear that not only did MPs' contacts get priority - whether or not they had any relevant experience - but that the Health Secretary, Matt Hancock, acted unlawfully by refusing to reveal details of those contracts within 30 days, as required by law.

This legal action was brought by the Good Law Project and the ruling by Mr Justice Chamberlain shows that the government is not above the law. BUT the need for this kind of action is another demonstration that the Johnson government is instinctively driven to avoid transparency and scrutiny. Instead, they chose a path of obfuscation, racking up over £200,000 of legal costs as a result in an attempt to use the threat of a crippling cost award as a disincentive to challenge by judicial review.

The public shouldn't be forced to rely on litigation to keep those in power honest, but in this case it's clear that the challenge pushed Government to comply with its legal obligations. Judge Chamberlain stated that the admission of breach by Government was "secured as a result of this litigation and at a late stage of it" and "I have no doubt that this claim has speeded up compliance". It begs the question, if we hadn't brought this legal challenge, what other contract details would have remained hidden from view?

And whilst Government always sought to dismiss any challenge by insisting a claimant needed to be an 'economic operator' to have standing, the judgment states that it is unrealistic that economic operators would have challenged Government's breach of the law in these circumstances. In other words, if The Good Law Project hadn't taken this case, there are not many others who could have done so.

This judgment, which can be found *here*, is a victory for all of us concerned with proper governance and proof of the power of litigation to hold Government to account. But there is still a long way to go before the Government's house is in order. The Good Law Project have now *written* to the Secretary of State for Health and Social Care detailing what needs to be done to improve procurement processes and ensure value for British taxpayers.

Write to your MP to ask what they're doing to uphold the rule of law *here*.


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## StuartDB

I think the government have been absolutely great. Even Kier Starma (captain hindsight) is constantly backing the Tories with everything they have done and / or suggested.. You really can't get a Government just pushed out based public complaints.. and the UK have seen what's happened in the US by changing leaders in the middle of a pandemic (absolutely nothing is different) there's still 30k+ new infections and hundreds of new deaths.

The lawyer yesterday just said if the Government is more transparent they'll drop the litigation. Some of the complaints about the Tories make them sound like a cartel, which is just utter nonsense.

If papa-smurf with the lunatic brother got into power, lord only knows where we all would be.


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## John-H

And they say you can't fool all of the people all of the time.


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## StuartDB

How does someone start providing plastic tubes manufactured to the highest level for medical tests, without previous medical contracts? That's the only real compliant.

If papa smurf was running the show he would have re-employed coal miners to clean tipex-thinners bottles, with everyone in a 3 day week, all wearing the same clothes. 

It was only 30 million quid I think we spend 8.8 billion a month on furlough?

I think there's several months this information needs to be disclosed in. If people really think there's some conspiracy theory going wild, it was just the right person in the right place at the right time... show Matt Hancock with some hidden cayman island account with 10m in and I will agree with you... otherwise its just sour grapes and jealously, from people who don't live where Matt Hancock does.


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## John-H

It's 30 days and Handcock was on Marr this morning claiming that on average they had published contract details on day 47 so were only slightly late - but that's a complete con. A bank robber can say his average day doesn't involve robbing banks.

Some of the contracts they didn't want people to know about they were refusing to disclose at all and had to be forced into it. If it was all above board why refuse and why spend so much time and money trying to defend the secrecy in court and try to continue to hide the details from the public?


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## StuartDB

Wasn't the complaints about these type of entrepreneur contracts essentially the public complaining that people were making money as 'brokers' and Joe Public, think they shouldn't make money for handling suppliers and supplies, and instead they think civil servants should cold call suppliers in China, India etc and arrange deals for the NHS and Government etc... that's ridiculous.

Arval Car Leasing and Finance part of BNP have about 4000 brokers managing deals (they don't have 1000s of people finding the deals)
When we employed a developer from India there's a way of dealing with this.. 
1. We had to go through a UK recruitment company
2. They had to go through an Indian recruitment company
3. The developer got paid.

We weren't allowed to disclose how much we were paying for him each day, as he only got £100 a day but we paid £1000 a day (UK recruitment took £500 a day finders fee, the Indian recruitment took £400 a day finders fee)

Brokers take commission, but they also set up the deals saving millions of lives so getting paid 50p per life saved is tiny.

Like I said - just jealously, and 'this is life saving emergency, you should do it for free'.

There's 1000s of companies who have changed their business to suit the covid demand. We can't all be mug parents of a teenager with a 3d printer, who paid £100 quid a day so their kid could print 30 face shield holders for free, that (let's face it are about 15pence to create in China)

I tell you what I would really like... that's a way of me going to Tesco to buy some beer without having to buy something else which I don't want or need, just to make the journey look necessary...

I don't think 30 days is enough to disclose a new contract, as unless you have the contract, you can't supply, and you can't supply without the contract.

I feel for Dyson he was given the specification for a ventilator for full intubation and created 2000 and the UK only wanted the free ones, in favour of the F1 simpler forced air CPAP (for use to aid breathing in someone conscious, not a ventilator) I was going to get one at the beginning of this, as my wife already uses an oxygen concentrator, but a CPAP is quite intense with a full mask so you can speak etc. They are only about 300 quid, I know the McClaren one was much cheaper but it was just a mixer tap, and didn't include any air supply, pipework or facemask.


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## StuartDB

Lol... the complainants were a Labour MP, a Green MP and a Liberal Democrat MP.. I didn't think there were and Liberal Democrats?

She (Liberal Democrat) seems to think companies who already made PPE were not able to sell theirs.. just sounds like AntiTory whining to me...

I wonder if there was some security reasons to protect some of these providers, as we all remember Germany Government had essentially got 419'd and the UK Banking Security stopped their money transfer of millions of Euros and advised the German Government to check the Lorries first. There's also the question of vaccines storage in the UK, these locations are still secret and highly protected.. I recall Nicola Sturgeon said 3 weeks ago she was going to disclose daily 'how many vaccines we have in stock' did she ever do that? I expect she was told she cannot.


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## John-H

StuartDB said:


> Wasn't the complaints about these type of entrepreneur contracts essentially the public complaining that people were making money as 'brokers' and Joe Public, think they shouldn't make money for handling suppliers and supplies, and instead they think civil servants should cold call suppliers in China, India etc and arrange deals for the NHS and Government etc...


No, not entirely. The complaints were mainly about details being withheld regarding contracts placed with companies with connections to ministers. Dubious companies with no experience in medical supply chosen over regular suppliers. Start-up companies started by family members of ministers and of a fast track priority lane favoring companies, recommended by ministers, that happened to have made donations to party funds.



StuartDB said:


> I don't think 30 days is enough to disclose a new contract, as unless you have the contract, you can't supply, and you can't supply without the contract.


It makes no sense. The law states that details of the contract should be published no later than 30 days from agreement of the contract. It's there in black and white. How hard is it to publish? More to the point why refuse to do so and go to court trying your hardest not to comply? What are you trying to hide?



StuartDB said:


> Lol... the complainants were a Labour MP, a Green MP and a Liberal Democrat MP.. I didn't think there were and Liberal Democrats?
> 
> She (Liberal Democrat) seems to think companies who already made PPE were not able to sell theirs.. just sounds like AntiTory whining to me...


That may be the way you prefer to view but complaints were made by regular medical supply companies that they had not been considered as providers despite offering to supply.



StuartDB said:


> I feel for Dyson he was given the specification for a ventilator for full intubation and created 2000 and the UK only wanted the free ones, in favour of the F1 simpler forced air CPAP (for use to aid breathing in someone conscious, not a ventilator) I was going to get one at the beginning of this, as my wife already uses an oxygen concentrator, but a CPAP is quite intense with a full mask so you can speak etc. They are only about 300 quid, I know the McClaren one was much cheaper but it was just a mixer tap, and didn't include any air supply, pipework or facemask.


Dyson's is the second project to be abandoned, after an effort involving the Renault and Aston Martin Red Bull Formula One teams was stood down due to a change in the specifications set by the government for new devices.
The only group to have secured regulatory approval and supplied ventilators to the NHS in significant numbers is Ventilator Challenge UK, a consortium of manufacturers that focused on scaling up production of proven devices, rather than building new ones.

The consortium has delivered more than 250 to the NHS, expects to reach production of 1,500 by early May and could supply up to 20,000 devices made by Oxfordshire specialist Penlon and Luton-based Smiths Medical.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... t-covid-19


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## StuartDB

They continued to use the sample ventilators made by Dyson though didn't they it have they been binned now too?

It's quite an important thing so I'm not surprised they expanded the existing business. I'm surprised they didn't need a load more dialysis machines, infusion boards, monitoring equipment, air mattresses, Dyson fans, UPSes etc my wife did have to give back her emergency oxygen tank for 6 months. One thing interesting is when I had my liver biopsy last week, I asked why they are using under the tongue use once thermometer instead of forehead infrared scanners, thinking they were cheaper, and they said no, since covid they need to be more accurate, so they have to use those 3M more expense plastic strips. I will point out we have gone through 3 forehead scanners, they don't need much to stop working.. the best one I have used is a Braun in ear one that lasted about 10 years. Also got a car laser one but you always have to add 1 degree on, and if you miss the forehead and get your eye you have a blue line for 2 hours


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## John-H

StuartDB said:


> They continued to use the sample ventilators made by Dyson though didn't they it have they been binned now too?


They would not have been able to use equipment that had not been approved by the MHRA. Imagine how easy it would have been to sue the hospital for using an unlicensed experimental prototype where the patient had died.

It was muddled thinking. A mixture of panic and a doctrinal belief that British entrepreneur effort could quickly adapt to the challenge when in truth it was never a good idea to re-invent complex safety critical equipment and licenced manufacture of proven designs was the quicker and more reliable route to go. Good summary here: https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com ... 6efbc575ec


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## StuartDB

I think the disorganised delegation chaos was caused by PHE stating in February 2020 they will handle everything to do with Coronavirus and within 2 weeks were drowning, and had loads of tasks taken away from them, they probably needed 10 times more trained staff.


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## John-H

In this video after the Sky, Ch4 and BBC Marr clips there's a very interesting interview with Jo Maugham QC revealing some of the astonishing detail that came to light in the case such as the politically sensitive contracts being held back for many months (many times greater than Hancock's "average 47 days"), the $50 million paid to a go between as a finder's fee - not even for the subsequent supply of PPE paid for separately that turns out to be unusable and that the government have purchased five years supply of PPE at five times the normal cost and are now employing investigators to find out where it is. That the government lawyer couldn't rule out corruption being involved with party friends and donors is telling. That a government Minister having being found guilty by a High Court judge is now claiming he's done nothing wrong is indicative of contempt - the government seem to think the law does not apply to them.






There's more to come out and the case has even gained backing from traditionally Tory supporting newspapers like the Sun, Mail and Telegraph.


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## StuartDB

This pandemic was regularly defined as a war, and during wartime the government is not accountable for things like equipment, supply chains and do not need 90+ day tenders. (My employer is joining a tender which started in Sept 2019, that's not the answer in 'a War')

Dealing with these things after the emergency is all well and good and in 29 years when government meeting details will be accessible then some people may get into a 10 year 'Levison Enquiry' or it will be like the 'Liverpool Sheffield Wednesday' investigation over 30 years more.


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## Danny1

Roll on June and lets get things back to normal


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## John-H

StuartDB said:


> This pandemic was regularly defined as a war ...


Only figuratively and not in law so that's no excuse.

On a lighter note:

*London masks throughout the ages.*









In the 1930s, as now, not everyone believed in the benefits of covering both the mouth and nose









A facemask and pearls were appropriate 1950s smogwear









The beak-like part of the plague mask was stuffed with aromatic herbs in order to counteract harmful "miasmas"









Safety first! This 1971 motorist wears a gas mask but no seat belt









Dance numbers were unaffected but the choir wasn't thrilled









Some doctors suggested disinfectant-sprayed gauze might prevent against the deadly Spanish flu

More here: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-56085529? [bbcnews_fivecenturiesoffacecoverings_newscoronavirus]

So we've gone from nose to mouth and a study from India suggested glasses help protect. It's all ports of entry basically, not just cough droplets but as suspected for a long time invisible floating aerosol.









Ultimate complete protection and you can walk on water - Bargain £290
https://www.gameyore.com/2-meter-water- ... t0QAvD_BwE


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## leopard

Facemask and pearls does it for me [smiley=thumbsup.gif]

The beak mask with the stuffed herbs for a heavy duty Jalfrezi clean out the day after the night before


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## StuartDB

I'm loving the plague masks... what annoyed me a bit was in one of Dan Brown's books, I envisaged that was a 'death mask' when I watched the film the death mask is just a plaster cast of the dead persons face.

There's some 'dark "blue velvet" hotness" of dancers in gas masks.


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## StuartDB

Does anyone else think that Boris Johnson's lockdown exit roadmap obliterated Scotland and Wales - commitment less, non specific, next week only planned, and 'same old, same old'. They both played their hands far too early and have offered nothing of any substance, who's writing Boris Johnson's speeches at the moment? I expect that Nicola Sturgeon will try and clarify a plan through to 1 day longer than England.. and Wales will do something similar, or pick up on the second home Tory comment about going on second home / self contained property holidays, and say no-one from England will be allowed into Wales until 2 days after


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## John-H

StuartDB said:


> I'm loving the plague masks... what annoyed me a bit was in one of Dan Brown's books, I envisaged that was a 'death mask' when I watched the film the death mask is just a plaster cast of the dead persons face.
> 
> There's some 'dark "blue velvet" hotness" of dancers in gas masks.


I know what you mean about Blue Velvet - very surreal and disturbing film. I can hear the candy coloured clown they call the Sandman now...


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## John-H

StuartDB said:


> Does anyone else think that Boris Johnson's lockdown exit roadmap obliterated Scotland and Wales - commitment less, non specific, next week only planned, and 'same old, same old'. They both played their hands far too early and have offered nothing of any substance, who's writing Boris Johnson's speeches at the moment? I expect that Nicola Sturgeon will try and clarify a plan through to 1 day longer than England.. and Wales will do something similar, or pick up on the second home Tory comment about going on second home / self contained property holidays, and say no-one from England will be allowed into Wales until 2 days after


Scotland is talking about going back to the Tier system - but we know at least nationally that didn't work. They had a slightly different system there but looking at their graph it seems to be much the same shape.

Opening schools in a big bang is going to be risky. We can see on the graph that last time it sent the R rate up and infections increased. And that was with the original Corona virus with an R0 = 3 not the Kent variant we have now with an R0 of 5.2. It's not only transmission between children that's the issue but also parents meeting up and of course being freed up to go to work etc.

Here's the latest data updated last night. You can see the infection rate fall has plateaued and sent R from 0.7 to 0.9 over the last few weeks. Looking at that I wouldn't be opening schools without taking extra action like staggering the start and supporting parents to stay at home. In fact I would wait for more vaccine coverage before going further. We've reached 25% with a first jab but they are mostly the elderly and retired who are not the main spreaders.


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## John-H

Today, the High Court will hear the Good Law Project's application for a cost capping order regarding judicial review of Government's decision to award huge PPE contracts to questionable counterparties.

Thet have been forced to apply for the order, which would cap the costs of both sides, after Government revealed it planned to spend an eye-watering £1 million defending the case.

The Good Law Project (GLP) would be liable for these enormous costs. And Ayanda and Pestfix - the fortunate VIP lane recipients of vast contracts to supply PPE much of which we now know to be unusable - are also asking for huge and inflated sums in costs. GLP are a small not-for-profit group, funded by donations from members of the public who cannot bear this kind of existential risk.

The government know this and it would appear they want them silenced. What are the government scared of becoming exposed?

You might think it has something to do with the types of points coming to light. Last Monday, their case against Michael Gove showed that Dominic Cummings awarded a lucrative public contract to those he admitted were his 'friends'. Last Friday, the High Court ruled Government had acted unlawfully by failing to publish details of COVID-19 contracts.

The Good Law Project's judicial review of PPE contracts has already generated an admission from Government that it purchased £155m worth of facemasks that can't be used by the NHS, fuelled countless newspaper headlines in the UK and around the world, and prompted repeated scrutiny in the House of Commons.

That it threatens to get right to the heart of the highly troubling "VIP lane" largely populated by Ministerial contacts is why the government are trying to cost GLP out of court and keep the details hidden. If there was nothing to hide why not just release the contract details required by law? Why the enormous effort to keep details hidden?

They even considered scrapping the system of Judicial Review entirely to stop government being held to account but because this system also exists in Scottish law and the Scottish Parliament would have to agree, this for now seems to be a step too far. Hence the effort to use legal costs to avoid scrutiny.

EDIT: Matt Hancock was asked on Today this morning what persuaded his mate and neighbour, the former pub landlord with no previous medical supply experience, to sign a contract for supply of medical grade vials to the NHS? Matt Hancock said he didn't know.


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## StuartDB

Or the government simply want to get on with saving lives instead of having to be concerned with things like this. If all these contracts went out to tender the death toll would surely be much worse, and the same people would be complaining that the government should not have wasted 4 months in a tender process, or the losers from the tender process would say the government picked favourite companies instead of it being based on a selection process, it is like offering a job to someone at a school. They must advertise it both internally and externally for a certain period of time, even if they have no intention of giving it to anyone apart from the person they already offered it to. The unselected tender companies, will behave like people made redundant wanting to prosecute their ex-employer saying it wasn't fair, it just makes everything expensive and time consuming.


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## John-H

Complete Straw Man argument Stuart. There was never any question of the contracts going out for tender and competative delays because the law was changed under the emergency provisions to speed up the process by simply choosing suitable suppliers. That's not the argument.

The argument was publishing the contract details as required by law within 30 days so we the public can see if they have chosen suitable suppliers. If contracts have been signed they are there in black and white so there is no excuse to delay publication. How long does it take to publish something you already have a copy of? Duh!

There was no excuse to delay for months on end and certainly no excuse to go to court and try to block publication and using nefarious means of massively inflated costs and spurious legal arguments to try and keep the information hidden from public view.

If it's all above board why go to these lengths to avoid publication? Wouldn't it be easier, tie less people up and take less time and money to simply publish the contracts? They are trying to hide the information for a reason obviously.

What we are allegedly discovering here is corruption at the heart of government. That the PPE supply has been used as a gravy train for ministers and their mates with a VIP fast lane set up for suppliers recommended by ministers which the National Audit Office say favoured these VIP selected companies over legitimate suppliers offering their services by 10:1. We are finding that these ministerial recommendations are dubious start ups, inexperienced, friends and party doner connections, way overpriced and providing product that can't be used and had to be thrown away.

If you really think it's fine for ministers and their mates to profit with their snouts in the public money trough producing unusable PPE that has to be discarded then that really is a strange position to take.

If you think that would be bad as I'm sure you do really and believe that everything is above board, as indeed you may, then it would be even stranger and perverse to support keeping the contract details hidden - surely you would want them to prove their actions to be legitimate with a simple action which would remove the reason for all criticism.


----------



## StuartDB

If they had published these back in April then no-one would have had any PPE because they would still be squabbling over it. just like if the ventilators and other equipment had gone out to tender then no-one would have got anything done.. we have agreements with collaborating where the interfaces are agreed and suitable - and everything then stops for years arguing about commercials - the whole lot of this has been shoved in to get it done. In China they built a hospital by knocking down peoples homes they were given what 2 or 3 hours to pack and go to their new dwellings, that is communism at work, is that acceptable? I think that is why China said they could do HS2 so cheaply as they are used to just smashing down to build, where-as the actual situation in the UK would be every mile involves 6 months of debate. it is definitely not what happened here.

In actual fact just as with the vaccines ? they didn't go out to tender - they set up a group of experts in the UK and a manufacturer - why are other companies not complaining that they could have made the vaccine quicker and cheaper if it had gone to tender? and none of that was scrutinised and debated - there was no BBC parliament programs, of course if this had failed I am sure you'd be on here rattling on about - the government wasted tax payers money and Papa Smurf's replacements will be calling for the government to step aside.

Didn't Tony Blair decide to go to war, totally on his own - even without the support of his own cabinet - they said "no - we need to debate this and scrutinise the evidence over 3 months", and he said actually it is just my decision.

One day we will find out Lady Di was assassinated, McCann were involved in Maddie disappearance, Elvis is still alive and Matt Hancock pushed through some emergency power to get equipment in, avoiding a lengthy tender process. 
It is a shame the existing manufacturers didn't branch out as the whole world wanted it - so why didn't they take the initiative to go and sell abroad. 
I watched Capricorn One yesterday, it certainly looked more realistic than the latest Mars pictures and videos  

I do think now, we will be able to deal with these types of emergencies much better, as we know the most efficient ways to mobilise a variety of technical, chemistry, physics, testing and manufacturing - we probably were one of the best in the world in our reactions to this emergency, putting aside the sad loss of life - hopefully we will get our timing and protection of vulnerable people much better (my wife just received another COV ID letter from Papworth, saying she has another 6 weeks shielding - she has had one just about every month since March 2020, reminding her that it is not safe for her to mix with other people)

Do you remember September 2019 the Labour MPs wanted to know why the UK were buying and storing millions of body-bags, project fear assumed that on February 1st 2020 no-one would get any medicine because of Brexit - pretty obvious that they had a different purpose  but we will need to think about stock piling lots of things like that now too, I addition to germinated seeds, clean soil, underground crops etc..


----------



## John-H

StuartDB said:


> If they had published these back in April then no-one would have had any PPE because they would still be squabbling over it. .


Where is your evidence for this peculiar notion? If it's all above board there would be no problem. How can your notion possibly be justified?

All the rest you've written is a bit random isn't it? I read it three times and could still could not make head nor trail of it.

Ok I get it that you think it's fine for government ministers to avoid scrutiny and break the law, stick their noses in the trough, and rip off the public. How would you know otherwise? Wouldn't you want to know?


----------



## StuartDB

80% of people vote the government to do the governing. Its only the 20% of people who didn't vote for the government, that want to know all the details.

I pay my income tax, ni, council tax, road tax and vat on purchases - and expect the government and councils to run the country with my money. If any of them are stealing it, then I expect the police to deal with it .. so you are right... I'm part if the 80% who don't care about things the government and civil servants are responsible for.

Lots of disappointed voters, the 20% want to spend their lives trying to see what 300 ministers and 40,000 civil servents are doing.. most people don't really care. 
Some people are from mining families still blame Thatcher for Billy Elliot, Some people still blame The Sun newspaper for making headlines after the sad 98 deaths.

But most people just put petrol in the cars and drive to the shops, and try and work to put food on the table.

Did we get PPE? - Yes
Did we get tests? - Yes
Did we get vaccines? - Yes

Were corners cut? - we've all seen House of Cards, Line of Duty, The Shield etc etc - so I expect Yes..?

If this was big news, it would be in the news where it was 5 minutes on StephenNolan a few days ago and on Jeremy Vine, most callers didn't care and defended Matt Hancock, and even that Mega Left Owen journalist didn't really go on about it, like he normally does about anything Anti-Tory.

There's 2 arguments here and you are trying to win both.

1. They should have disclosed any contracts in a timely fashion. 30 days (most were within 47 days)

2. You also think the contracts should have gone through a Tender process? And seem to think a fair tender process could be completed in a timely fashion.. no chance in my opinion.

So the tenders I have been involved in start with an official 'request for information', which needs to be completed in order to be shortlisted for a tender. These usually start with an NDA and then are usually a vague specification of requirements and include supplier chain disclosure to ensure any computer system adheres to accessibility standards, that all companies in the supplier chain can provide evidence they adhere to the latest compliance rules for diversity and equality, modern day slavery etc etc And various ISO standards etc etc. The list goes on and on.

If you have an example of a tender process which only takes 4 weeks from start to finish let me know? It probably takes more than 4 weeks minimum to employ and induct a person into a company, even a supermarket shelf stacker.

I am sure you read the contract that AZ spent months agreeing with the EU (that took 3 months before they started to make anything for them? And they already had the product !!!)

Mr and Mrs Joe Public is just glad the government got the stuff we needed, and we don't care where we got it... as long as we haven't somehow funded domestic terrorism.


----------



## John-H

StuartDB said:


> 80% of people vote the government to do the governing. Its only the 20% of people who didn't vote for the government, that want to know all the details.


Rubbish. 43.6% of the electorate voted conservative. The majority of voters voted for other parties. Wanting to know about wrongdoing shouldn't be politically motivated otherwise you become a very poor judge and you end up accepting corruption.



StuartDB said:


> I pay my income tax, ni, council tax, road tax and vat on purchases - and expect the government and councils to run the country with my money. If any of them are stealing it, then I expect the police to deal with it .. so you are right... I'm part if the 80% who don't care about things the government and civil servants are responsible for.


I get it that you don't want to know and would rather stick your head in the sand. That's clear. But how do you expect the police or anyone else to investigate wrong doing if the details are kept secret?



StuartDB said:


> There's 2 arguments here and you are trying to win both.
> 
> 1. They should have disclosed any contracts in a timely fashion. 30 days (most were within 47 days)
> 
> 2. You also think the contracts should have gone through a Tender process?


Wrong. There's only one argument - the first one about disclosure of contract details which, I'm glad you agree now, should be disclosed and within 30 days so details can be examined. Great.

Under the emergency provisions the law was changed to remove the need for a competitive tendering process. There is no legal requirement and I have never made that argument. It's you who keep making this straw man argument so you can rabbit on and try to fool others or possibly yourself mistakenly that you have a valid argument - you don't because it's not the argument - it's an irrelevant distraction.

So fortunately the rest of what you say can be ignored and we are left with the inconsistency or simplification in your position - that you have no argument against contract details being disclosed within 30 days so wrongdoing can be investigated. But you don't want to hear about it.


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## okcha

My friend is forced to travel around the world for work and he says that we don't even know about half of the cases, since most of the countries hide the real numbers. They say that only after 7 years life will back to normal.


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## John-H

Art the risk of annoying Stuart again...

A defiant Mr Hancock said yesterday that he would breach the law again if needed, claiming the documents were on average only a fortnight late.

But in a letter to Government lawyers, the Good Law Project revealed the Health Secretary's estimate that contracts took an average of 47 days to be published *did not include contracts which had still not been released*.

They said that once unpublished contracts were included the figure skyrocketed to 78 days by November - almost three times the legal limit.

In a letter to the Government Law Department, lawyers Deighton Pierce Glynn, who represent the Good Law Project said they were concerned Mr Hancock was "denigrating" the High Court decision.

Matt Hancock repeated the same defence argument to the media which had been rejected by the court and claimed there hasn't been a shortage of PPE.

But Labour 's Shadow Health Secretary Jonathan Ashworth hit back, saying: "The National Audit Office said there was a national shortage of PPE.

"Hundreds of NHS staff died, nurses resorted to using bin bags. His response was to hand out contracts to his pub landlord who Whatsapped him.

"He bought 25 million masks from a pest control firm that can't be used in the NHS that cost £59 million.

"A hedge fund in Mauritius was handed £252 million but again the face masks supplied couldn't be used, and a jeweller in Florida was paid £70 million for gowns that couldn't be used.

"Matt Hancock should apologise and commit to recovering taxpayers' money from companies who provided this duff PPE."

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/ ... 3-23552910

There's a good explainer impartial news video from TLDR here:






It also makes the point that the reason this story is not as widely reported as you might expect for a government Minister found guilty in the High Court is that most of the press are right wing and it doesn't fit their narrative.


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## StuartDB

Why are you not complaining about the vaccines? And the risks the government took with tax payers money, blindly investing Billions of GBP in the hope we might get something?

There were a lot of brokers in these deals, and if they ask worked out no-one would talk about it. It's just hindsight politics and the government will be able to say 'lessons have been learned

No-one is going to prison.


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## John-H

I don't think any ministers got their mates to set up pharmaceutical research, development and manufacturing giants. It was a little bit too big a hurdle. The only candidates already existed and some are even supplying at cost price. For smaller things like PPE if you are light on your feet you can take advantage.

Why are you so desperate to find an excuse to justify or excuse corruption in those you voted for? What other crimes does political choice excuse? Are you saying it's acceptable to be a criminal if you join a certain party? Because I'm sure you'd be criticising the opposition if they were in power and doing the same thing, as would I. Surely evidence of wrongdoing should be investigated and punished regardless of party.

I see Matt Hancock has taken the picture of his mate's pub off the wall. Bit late now :roll:


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## StuartDB

John-H said:


> StuartDB said:
> 
> 
> 
> 80% of people vote the government to do the governing. Its only the 20% of people who didn't vote for the government, that want to know all the details.
> 
> 
> 
> Rubbish. 43.6% of the electorate voted conservative. The majority of voters voted for other parties.....
Click to expand...

Doh... yeah of course I'm thinking of parliamentary seats and not 'proportional representation' which is one of those complaints losing parties use, when it suits them

Do you think we should introduce a new voting system?

Of course if 'proportional representation' was used in UKIPs last proper general election they would have had maybe 150 MPs? And Green would have still had 1 or maybe 2  Lord only knows what will happen when Caroline Lucas dies.

I would actually prefer we all use one of those 'who should I vote for?' Web Apps to decide who to vote for based of answers to multiple choice questions. Then you get the percentage of what us best for you. Example when Tony Blair was going for PM the first time, the things that mattered to my wife and realistically me too. Would have meant we both would have voted for him. Basically, she needed a free council house and there was no such thing as minimum wage, after I'd had a career change after a split and walking out on a programming job at BAe 'to find myself' after gulfwar just started etc.

So New Labour was right for us both, but I would never do that as its just wrong... and loads of people who probably were told to vote Labour by parents because Thatcher closed the northern industry and privatised failing services, actually needed Tory (although let's face it Blair was more right than centre and Labour are supposed to be Left) our constituency was Conservative then and still is, so protest votes don't count.

Anyway, back to the website, that removes history and just uses your answers - so if you have a young family your answers will naturally pick health and education, it 10 years maybe policing and road etc.. obviously open to fraud. They have always picked Conservative right wing for me. I do think some people are surprised when they get their answer and still vote what their dad told them to.


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## John-H

StuartDB said:


> John-H said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> StuartDB said:
> 
> 
> 
> 80% of people vote the government to do the governing. Its only the 20% of people who didn't vote for the government, that want to know all the details.
> 
> 
> 
> Rubbish. 43.6% of the electorate voted conservative. The majority of voters voted for other parties.....
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> Doh... yeah of course I'm thinking of parliamentary seats and not 'proportional representation' which is one of those complaints losing parties use, when it suits them
> 
> Do you think we should introduce a new voting system?
Click to expand...

Well, if you were thinking of parliamentary seats your 80% figure is still fantasy.

I do think proportional representation is a better electoral system. Not a subject for this thread however


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## John-H

Some good news for a change - the plateauing of the fall in infections and a rise in R heading back towards 1 seen around 25 February has been replaced with a fall to its lowest value since the first lockdown start at 0.65. This would appear to be due to the vaccination programme which in other data is reducing hospital admissions. It's only a few days data and could reverse again especially when the schools go back which could well be a problem as we have a more infectious strain than before when this event caused an upsurge. Offset against that is a speeding up of the vaccine programme as second doses are being given alongside first doses for yet younger age groups including 60 year olds from this week.

You can book your vaccination here: https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavir ... ccination/


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## StuartDB

I'm a bit annoyed with the vaccines - i'm entitled as a primary carer, but because I don't get paid for this; I'm not registered - so not able to get one easily through online booking.

I expect it'll only be a few weeks in any case.

Thank God for the Tory Government for getting this vaccine sorted.. I bet the Labour Party hope we have another pandemic when they are in power in 2030, so they can show off too...


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## John-H

Well that would be a bit negative. I don't think anyone would wish that if only because they might also fall victim.

It's the NHS that's getting the vaccines sorted. Thankfully the government allowed them to do it rather than outsource it to Serco and Deloitte like they did with test and trace. Pity they didn't learn sooner.

Pity we didn't lock down sooner and relax so soon, repeatedly, then perhaps we wouldn't have ended up with the worst death toll and hardest hit economy in Europe. I guess you learn by your disasters.

Have you tried booking without claiming to be a primary career? If you are 60+ or in certain other categories you can just book - just don't go down a route that you have no documentary proof for. You don't need your NHS number either but if you click to say you have it and you don't you'll also get stuck.


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## StuartDB

I have a hepatology phone appointment after a biopsy last week - so hopefully if my liver is failing I can go up the list 

Still only 49 and my birthday is after the 50+ push in April.


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## John-H

StuartDB said:


> I have a hepatology phone appointment after a biopsy last week - so hopefully if my liver is failing I can go up the list
> 
> Still only 49 and my birthday is after the 50+ push in April.


I didn't realise you were such a young-un! Well, stay safe in the mean time my friend. I'm sure it will work out alright in the end as most people want things to work out best


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## John-H

"Let them eat claps...."


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## Nilathis

I really hope that there will be no new strains and mutations of this virus.


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## John-H

Nilathis said:


> I really hope that there will be no new strains and mutations of this virus.


To achieve that we've got to stop transmission. The more it replicates the more chance it will change. So the best policy is to bring infections to a near zero as possible. The worst thing would be allow an "acceptable" level of infection to continue such as release restrictions because the NHS can cope with a certain number of ill people. That would be asking for trouble.


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## StuartDB

The NHS are the 3rd biggest employer in the world....

1% is better than the other public services who get nothing... although, I'm not sure about the talk of a cancelled 3% rise last year?

In my experience Filipino nurses are the best in the NHS, fitting canulars and taking blood etc are part of their basic training, but it's a course and a 500 quid pay rise in the UK.

I haven't had a pay rise for 6 or 7 years. Only pay reductions in no on-call, no overtime etc etc..

Also the real nursing money is in Bank-Shifts even HCAs could earn 40k-50k if they top up with Bank Shifts..

Although, I do think nurses are under-paid but that's nothing to do with a rise. Also when my mate joined their IT department to create a few reports, he started on like 6c or similar, which is a specialist nurse / midwife etc with 20 years experience.

Nurses also bump their wages up by doing courses and changing their grades, that's every year too for the first 10 years or so.

The NHS do also pay a lot of compensation don't they? Like what 200m or more? I should have chased one up after several mistakes leading to nearly dying via renal failure, after antibiotic mismanagement, through Black August (when junior doctors swap departments) through anti biotic resistant pseudomonus, through infected metal work, through fracture blisters, through junior doctor putting a cast on too tight and not noticing my bone had been exposed to the outside world. That was Addenbrookes.. the best lesson I learnt with my 28 operations were that you should never tick the box about junior doctors be 'in attendance', as that can mean anything from washing with iodine to removing seized screws in a partially grown spiral fracture. Oh and also a nurse pushed me whilst recovering from sepsis in high dependency whet I was trying to get to the bed from the chair and said the consultant said I need to start putting weight on it, and I needed another x-ray which showed a new fracture in the ball in my ankle.. I will say it was a sad day when I left the plastic surgery new age air conditioned ward and going back to essentially the top of a train in india in orthopaedics. Also when your first nurse in May sees you in a lift in August and says 'are you back already?' 'I havn't let yet! 'Wr should charge you! ' 'oh, I think I should be charging you lots
I will say my knee consultant was outstanding, when I spoke to him one evening after renal failure and sepsis, I said I need to go home and am refusing any more anti biotic until I get some strength again.. he said 100 days ago you had a broken leg, and a couple of weeks ago Addenbrookes essentially poisoned you. I was being booked up to be transferred to Oxford University Hospital as the best infectious disease consultants in the UK, but my wife was having a nervous breakdown after my renal failure... so I went back a year later when the infection returned to have the metal taken out and inject my own merrapenin through my picine.

And my wife probably should, DVT which they diagnosed as not DVT and didn't do a chest x-ray then when returned was diagnosed as DVT and she was asked how she's doing on the heparin which was never prescribed, then put on river roxiban , for 3 months and told to stop after and can then back if she gets another DVT then 3 days later a Pulmonary Embolism, which Bedford saw immediately on a chest x-ray, and Addenbrookes would have too as she had over 20 years of PEs building up.. she was told they were panic attacks for 20 odd years. She was told the miscarriages were due to her weight.
She was told the exploding veins in her fingers wrists and eyes were a bit odd.

At Papworth the consultant was teaching other doctors how to hear pulmonary hyper-tension using a stethoscope, that's probably the best heart and lung hospital in the world, even at their St Ives home.


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## StuartDB

Jesus Christ, an NHS union secretary has just said in radio5live everyone (not just nurses) in the #NHS should be getting a 15% pay increase. That's the CEO getting a 75k per year increase... lolcanos

15% for everyone... imagine that...










Part of the reasoning is 'eat out to help out' was done, so it's just like that... but for 30 years and not 2 months...


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## John-H

So it's gone from let them eat clap to let them eat clap trap. When you have 100,000 vacancies in the NHS, nurses having to visit food banks and Dominic Cummings getting a 40% pay rise I think we've got our priorities wrong.


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## StuartDB

Domonic 40% pay rise is the equivalent to about 14 nurses getting 15% pay increase. Stop comparing cabinet advisors and ministers to people that dish out prescriptions prescribed by doctors (apart from the handful or prescribing nurses) and call doctors when someone in a ward looks more sick than expected.

Think of HCAs as the equivalent as TAs in school, they can do most of the work of a nurse / teacher... do not have to have any real qualifications and can nowadays train on the job. Lots of people have to get food bank food, and cannot afford houses, but blame people buying second homes and building companies especially profiteering from help to buy schemes by inflating prices raising rental values.


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## John-H

Stop trying to justify a hierarchy of unelected elites who with their privileged position lord it over us and get away with ignoring the laws that apply to the rest whilst they at the same time being so ungrateful to those who risk their own lives doing their best for others whilst at the same time have so little reward that they have to visit food banks and are so poorly appreciated in reward that the NHS is hemorrhaging staff and suffering a recruitment crisis. Do we want an NHS or what?

We were encouraged by the government to clap for them every Thursday night. Did you? Why do you think that was?

Perhaps it was so they could eat claps instead of actually being paid. I thought that at the time.

Do you think it's fair to conveniently forget the appreciation now in order to tow a party line and prove me right? The answer is an indication of priorities and an indication of manipulation.


----------



## FNChaos

In an interesting turn of events, several news sources are reporting that the EU is asking the US to export millions of doses of AstraZeneca back to Europe.

I say_ 'interesting'_ because the AZ vaccine has not yet been approved for use in the US. 
Apparently the US ordered some 300 million doses of AZ, and has been stockpiling doses as they become available in anticipation that approval for will be grated soon.

See: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-s-vaccine-that-could-speed-up-biden-timeline

It is also interesting that Oxford initially considered teaming up with U.S. pharmaceutical giant Merck & Co for production, but EU concerns that the US 'might' hoard the vaccine led to the deal with British / Swedish based Astrazeneca... :roll:


----------



## StuartDB

John-H said:


> Stop trying to justify a hierarchy of unelected elites who with their privileged position lord it over us and get away with ignoring the laws that apply to the rest whilst they at the same time being so ungrateful to those who risk their own lives doing their best for others whilst at the same time have so little reward that they have to visit food banks and are so poorly appreciated in reward that the NHS is hemorrhaging staff and suffering a recruitment crisis. Do we want an NHS or what?
> 
> We were encouraged by the government to clap for them every Thursday night. Did you? Why do you think that was?
> 
> Perhaps it was so they could eat claps instead of actually being paid. I thought that at the time.
> 
> Do you think it's fair to conveniently forget the appreciation now in order to tow a party line and prove me right? The answer is an indication of priorities and an indication of manipulation.


I got a bit tired of those weekly clapping fireworks....I cannot remember how many times one of the most important government ministers went into hospital? I am sure he used the NHS to have kids and what not... and since 2000 the NI stopped being capped at £219, and has been crazy since...

Alistair Campbell was no better either was he....? He started a war with the middle east for the US to control the Oil..... and Cummings drove to a castle.....  Jesus Christ get some perspective...

It's like the few child abusers using mccann as a role model in court cases... there's a certain type of person that use idiots in privileged positions as examples of how they should conduct themselves... I'm pretty sure there's an abusive comment earlier in this thread or the other anti-tory thread about people being fooled by a fool... if people model their lives on government ministers or people in the news, we'd ask end up in prison or dead


----------



## StuartDB

FNChaos said:


> In an interesting turn of events, several news sources are reporting that the EU is asking the US to export millions of doses of AstraZeneca back to Europe.
> 
> I say_ 'interesting'_ because the AZ vaccine has not yet been approved for use in the US.
> Apparently the US ordered some 300 million doses of AZ, and has been stockpiling doses as they become available in anticipation that approval for will be grated soon.
> 
> See: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-s-vaccine-that-could-speed-up-biden-timeline
> 
> It is also interesting that Oxford initially considered teaming up with U.S. pharmaceutical giant Merck & Co for production, but EU concerns that the US 'might' hoard the vaccine led to the deal with British / Swedish based Astrazeneca... :roll:


This is great news, I hope that they are charging a surcharge on them, as the EU were so caught up in profiteering from a 'not for profit' product, it'll be good if they pay a fair price... I'm actually suprised they hadn't been buying in from Russia and China as Germany seem to be incredibly close to both this countries now... who knew the Chinese army to the world's biggest employer, I wonder how much smaller the army would be if they only gave the soldiers 1% and they went on strike   hopefully the US will send some over to our close friends in AUS, whilst they are also struggling in getting their AZ factory tuned in with great yields of AZ vaccine


----------



## John-H

StuartDB said:


> Alistair Campbell was no better either was he....? He started a war with the middle east for the US to control the Oil..... and Cummings drove to a castle.....  Jesus Christ get some perspective...


I doubt if you could produce any coherent evidence that Alasdair Cambell "started a war" but I could easily produce plenty of evidence of Dominic Cummings' involvement in Brexit which arguably has had a far worse effect on the UK's fortunes. Neither are suitable for discussion in this thread.

Dominic Cummings has of course had plenty to do with the government's response to corona virus. Do you think that's why they got rid of him?


----------



## StuartDB

His contract was expiring in December 2020, I would personally be more worried that Boris' fiancee is now apparently running the country 

If people use some bloke as a spirit guide for their own stupid behaviour 'more sheep them' I had never even heard about Cummings until he got famous for 'protecting his family' from Anti-Brexit lunatics in the same way Harry ran away from his responsibilities (you can see why they never liked wives in wars)

But did you use Dominic Cummings as an excuse to break covid rules? I doubt it, as you don't seem 'backwards' !
f anyone use him as a reason to spread a virus and kill off essentially 40% of care home income in 12 months so be it.. it's like killing a family member and saying they were on the lochabie flight.

I do recall Dominic Cummings saying that if you just drink about 5ml of bleech every-day for a month then 10ml of bleech you get a similar power to superman. (Please don't drink bleech, but follow Dom for everything else)

I doubt you are right about Blair's illegal war - but at least you recognise the last voted Labour PM did start an illegal war... this is Alistair Campbell slithering out of any responsibility, by suggesting he knew his boss was hiding details from everyone else... I don't know how... but snakes always seem to land in their feet 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 79756.html


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## John-H

Don't you remember Cummings leaving No. 10 with a cardboard box? Regarding bleach I think you are mixing him up with Trump but I agree about the shambolic nature of Johnson's premiership.


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## SwissJetPilot

Post deleted by user.


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## FNChaos

No worries at all. I've done my 'due diligence' and I trust the science behind the vaccines approved for use. In fact I've already received my second Moderna injection and lived to tell the tale.

If you follow-up on several of the claims, like the latest one where Denmark halted the use of AZ because of "potential" blood clots you'd find there is no evidence to support their position.

For example, cut from https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/11/business/astrazeneca-vaccine-denmark-blood-clots.html

_"Millions of people have received the vaccine without safety problems, and there is no evidence of any causal link between the vaccine and blood clots"

"Health authorities in three European countries on Thursday suspended use of AstraZeneca's vaccine because of concerns that it might increase the risk of blood clots, but emphasized that they were taking action as a precaution and that there is no evidence of any causal link"._

What makes me wonder is why people ignore millions of data point suggesting that the vaccine(s) are safe and effective but give credibility to reports of complications that lack any verifiable proof?


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## SwissJetPilot

Post deleted by user.


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## John-H

SwissJetPilot said:


> FNChaos said:
> 
> 
> 
> No worries at all. I've done my 'due diligence' and I trust the science behind the vaccines approved for use. ...
> 
> 
> 
> So what you're saying is your trust is based on your belief that it works and not actual scientific facts since there are no clinical trials to verify any CV-19 vaccine is effective as published in the manufacturer's product literature and government statements.
> 
> To be clear, the vaccine is only "approved for use" under the Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) and not regular FDA clinical trials -
Click to expand...

Andrew I think you are conflating too much from a disclaimer and ignoring the evidence, including trial data for the vaccines, that led the FDA to approve for emergency use and inferring therefore wrongly that FNChaos only has a "belief" without any scientific evidence.

There is plenty of scientific evidence that the vaccines work from published trial data and now roll out, and are safe. To imply otherwise is perverse and unhelpful if we are trying to encourage people to get vaccinated in order to counter the virus which is clearly the biggest risk with the most damaging consequences. Have you had yours yet?


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## SwissJetPilot

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## John-H

Why did you post this information? What is the purpose? Are you trying to put people off taking the vaccine or trying to encourage them? Or asking why this disclaimer exists and what it means? Presumably you thought there was an importance in posting it.

You can say people are ignorant and uninformed but _why_ should they read it? Ok you can post the disclaimer for "information" but if you don't at the same time provide context and explain what it means they still won't fully understand the context of the disclaimer and they might jump to the erronious conclusion that vaccines don't work and are dangerous - which could be implied from your accompanying claim that there is no scientific proof they work and warnings about blood clots etc.

There is proof that vaccines work of course. That's why the FDA approved the vaccines for emergency use. The proof is a statistical proof from the trial data but as in all cases is not an absolute certainty of efficacy in an individual - hence the disclaimer so you can't sue if it doesn't work.

It works like this. The manufacturer performs a large blind trial split in two, giving one group of volunteers the vaccine and another group a placebo. After a while when a number of people have become infected they gather the data and reveal how many infections are in the vaccine group and how many are in the placebo group. If the infections are equal in both groups then that's a statistical proof that the vaccine doesn't work. If the vast majority of infections fall in the placebo group that's a statistical proof that the vaccine does work and from this data they can give a percentage effectiveness figure which could be 90% say. That means there's a 10% chance if you had the vaccine that you could still become I'll - because the proof of effectiveness was a probability and not an absolute.

It's like there's no absolute proof cigarette smoking causes cancer. The proof was a statistical proof from a large bloody of data which showed that if you smoked you were more likely to get cancer. Nobody argues that smoking doesn't damage health now. But there is no absolute certainty you will get cancer.

If you read the safety data sheets and side effects and contra indications of any medicine you might well be put off but it's important to realise these things are rare so nothing to worry about (probably) and are included to protect the manufacturers who have a duty and an interest to include this information so you can't say you weren't warned of the (rare) side effect etc and they don't get sued.

The FDA or any medicine approval authority wouldn't approve something for use unless they thought it was of benefit to society. The greater danger is posed by not having the vaccine and catching COVID-19.

Oh and the blood clot warning is for people with pre-dispositions for this. Blood clots are common in the population and there's no statistical link between the reports of clotting and the vaccine.


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## SwissJetPilot

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## FNChaos

A couple of quick points:

On the average it takes the FDA 12 years from application to approval before an experimental drug is allowed to enter the market.

The first know US case of Covid-19 was recorded on Jan 19 2020 (patient showed up at one of the hospitals I work at BTW). One year later there were ~ 400K dead. Since January 2021 there have been an additional 130k dead in the US bringing the total to over ½ million people.

Waiting for the FDA to formally approve a Covid vaccine using its standard practice would be unacceptable considering the time frame for approval and the speed which Covid spreads.

Additionally, everyone that contracts Covid-19 (no matter how minor) is an opportunity for the virus to mutate (and RNA-based Viruii have a high rate of mutation). Delaying the roll-out might mean a fully vetted vaccine would be useless by the time it became available.

The FDA granted Emergency Use Authorization based on growing evidence that vaccines are effective and there has been little evidence to date that side-effects are life-threatening. Since the FDA didn't follow their SOP they added a disclaimer as a CYA. Vaccine manufactures did the same.

The guidelines for administering vaccines are strict. For example, immediately after receiving an injection, I was put into an observation area and monitored for 15 minutes before I was allowed to leave. I was also tracked by the CDC everyday (via phone app) for a week after each injection and then every week for several week following the vaccination. All symptoms and reactions were recorded (increasing data points) and the CDC would follow up personally if any responses were deemed significant.

As far as my trust being _'based on belief that it works and not actual scientific facts'_, I would say that I make no claims to be an expert but I do read everything I can get my hands on concerning Covid-19 & the various approaches to defeating it. I also have an advantage over most people since I have access to the advice of medical professionals (who are experts) due to my profession.

Of course there are no guarantees that Covid vaccines are 100% harmless, but when comparing the odds of an adverse reaction to a vaccine to the known adverse effects caused by Covid, I'll take my chances with the vaccine.

Finally, I'd reframe the question from it being a personal decision (whether not not to vaccinate) to one of, _"What is the greater good?"_ Sometime you need to 'take one for the team' regardless of one's personal safety.


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## SwissJetPilot

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## John-H

SwissJetPilot said:


> John-H said:
> 
> 
> 
> There is proof that vaccines work of course. That's why the FDA approved the vaccines for emergency use. The proof is a statistical proof from the trial data but as in all cases is not an absolute certainty of efficacy in an individual - hence the disclaimer so you can't sue if it doesn't work.
> 
> 
> 
> Wrong. As I posted previously _"When the Secretary of HHS declares that an emergency use authorization is appropriate, FDA may authorize unapproved medical products._" The FDA does NOT have the ability to authorize unapproved medical products. Only the Secretary of HHS can authorize the distribution of unapproved medications IN AN EMERGENCY and even if they do, that does not make the medication FDA approved.
Click to expand...

Andrew, the point is the medical authorities think it's a good idea. What's your problem? I'm not familiar with the US regulatory system detail but the point remains the authorities wouldn't allow it to be used unless they thought it was a good idea.



SwissJetPilot said:


> John-H said:
> 
> 
> 
> If you read the safety data sheets and side effects and contra indications of any medicine you might well be put off but it's important to realise these things are rare so nothing to worry about (probably) and are included to protect the manufacturers who have a duty and an interest to include this information so you can't say you weren't warned of the (rare) side effect etc and they don't get sued.
> 
> 
> 
> If people are willing to sign away their right to damages for an unapproved medication, that's up to them. I'm just making them aware of the legal ramifications of signing away their rights in order to get vaccinated.
Click to expand...

But why highlight this without providing context?



SwissJetPilot said:


> John-H said:
> 
> 
> 
> The FDA or any medicine approval authority wouldn't approve something for use unless they thought it was of benefit to society.
> 
> 
> 
> The FDA has NOT approved any CV-19 vaccines as they state in their own literature. ,
Click to expand...

Semantics. My point remains.



SwissJetPilot said:


> John-H said:
> 
> 
> 
> ...there's no statistical link between the reports of clotting and the vaccine.
> 
> 
> 
> According to who, you? This is only your opinion, not fact. This is why the Danes, and others, are looking into it.
Click to expand...

I'm repeating authoritative sources and given the low numbers of clots (handful) and the millions vaccinated without this issue it should be bleedin' obvious (excuse the medical joke :wink: ).


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## John-H

SwissJetPilot said:


> FNChaos said:
> 
> 
> 
> Finally, I'd reframe the question from it being a personal decision (whether not not to vaccinate) to one of, _"What is the greater good?"_ Sometime you need to 'take one for the team' regardless of one's personal safety.
> 
> 
> 
> To follow the example by *FNChaos* I agree everyone should do their due diligence before using any medication or undergoing any medical procedure. If uncertain what do to, individuals should seek professional medical advice from a qualified physician or health care provider who can explained to them all associated risks and benefits including potential legal ramifications.
> 
> On the other hand, all human beings have the right to decide independently in all matters related to their personal health care. No one should be forced or coerced to do any act which is against their will or in violation of their personal belief system even when that act is considered to be a benefit to others. This is the fundamental principle of basic human rights and we are obligated to respect their decision whether we agree with them or not.
Click to expand...

Agreed and I believe this is happening.


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## SwissJetPilot

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## FNChaos

SwissJetPilot said:


> Does anyone know if the CV-19 vaccine providers are offering a stamp in your international passport as proof to immigration that you've been vaccinated? I'm not talking about the international yellow immunization card shown below, but a stamp in your official travel passport.


To my knowledge there are no travel 'vaccine passports' to date. Definitely a controversial subject. Some people advocate a 'passport' would allow a vaccinated person to travel, frequent restaurants etc sooner which would help get the economy back on track. Others say it would create privacy and discrimination issues.

I've read that Israel currently had a "green passport" which allows one to go to gyms, theaters, etc.

I was recently looking into Hawaii's travel requirements and they are requiring proof of a NAAT (nucleic acid amplification test) conducted within 72hrs of travel if you want to avoid an 10 day quarantine. 
I haven't found anything that allows a vaccinated person to bypass this requirement (yet) but I expect that will likely happen if there is enough evidence to demonstrate a vaccinated person is no longer a vector.


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## SwissJetPilot

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## John-H

They are discussing it here too. Arguments are many. For international travel with some countries more advanced in vaccination it makes a practical sense to limit transmission but also argues for a more distributed and fair global roll out. Within a country the arguments against are that it creates an unfair discrimination in society especially against the young who will be last to be vaccinated but then once everyone has been vaccinated there's no point in having a card to confirm it. Even people who refuse to have it will be protected by the heard and not pose a threat to the herd because they are epidemiologically isolated so what's the point? You might argue that new variants start the ball rolling again but that just makes more of an argument for more complete vaccination and virus eradication to stop mutations - if that can be done.


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## StuartDB

WINNER !!!!

Apparently, I am now classed as 'a vulnerable person' so have booked up both my vaccines... I don't think all areas allow both dates booked together.. my parents didn't, but round our way we do... I expect I need to put on a limp or something like when there's someone standing outside a disabled toilet...


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## John-H

Well there's hope yet


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## StuartDB

So there's a lot of 'coincidence' surrounding people being vaccinated seeing improvements within a few days regarding 'long covid' symptoms. I actually assumed long covid was related to lung scaring, emphysema etc.. but a possible reason is a confused immune system seeing fragments of the virus and making them feel ill / 'virally' and the vaccine behaves like a helping hand to iradicate the remaining bits and pieces, essentially an auto immune disease.. the scientists have said it would be immoral to have a true test, where 50% of people with long-covid are given a placebo, when everyone else is given the vaccine.


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## John-H

Yes, there are quite a few reports from GPs citing patients with long covid, reporting relief of symptoms following vaccination. Not all their patients though. Long covid includes things like brain fogg, lethargy and persistence of symptoms that won't go away otherwise termed post-viral fatigue. The WHO says, symptoms may include extreme fatigue, persistent cough or exercise intolerance. The virus can cause inflammation in the lungs, cardiovascular and neurological systems, and it can take a long time for the body to recover.


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## SwissJetPilot

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## StuartDB

Old people don't create those cells... its what #CharlieGard died from, when a US doctor has kept 5 or 6 people alive, unconscious, comatosed, on machines.

My wife had undiagnosed Pulmonary Embolisms for over 20 years (antiphosphalidic syndrome) that leads to pulmonary hyper-tension when the right side pressure from the heart is massive for about 2 inches, then vents out of a hole due to blockages. That's essentially COPD which leads to chest infections which leads to emphysema, and essentially O2 when moving about.

That is what I thought long cov-id would be but I don't think it breathlessness, but I can see if your body is always fighting an infection (even if it's not there anymore) you'll feel ill all the time. What has not happened is that many fit people getting ill and dying.


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## StuartDB

The EU cannot deliver vaccines so they are suspending delivery of AZ to try and get some stock (I know some people will say it is the countries individual choices) but they are reacting to 30 DVT / PE cases in 5,000,000 people when in a sample population of 5,000,000 the normal number of cases should be 100 in the weeks the have used the vaccine (1 in 1000 per year)

This is just politics because they failed.

Why did Angela Merkle say she is too old for the AZ Vaccine?

It's going to be a read sad day, if the UK deaths become dwarfed by some of these paranoid countries.

Also France said they have suspended the Vaccine, but are still giving people with appointments the AZ vaccine.

What's interesting is one country are excluding certain batches - not sure whether they believe that some batches were not made correctly or not stored correctly - maybe kept too warm or too cold in transportation? _(or even dread the thought a mistake in the manufacturing process)_ You would have thought if they are stopping certain batches they want to have a reason. Maybe a couple of people had the normal side effects, but were unfit and the elevated heart beat, or short fever reaction freed up small DVTs or something.

-------- 
When they investigated a street 2km away from the Sandy Heath Transmitter, every house had suffered at least one case of cancer - but these people were all about the same age, same income etc - so maybe it was diet and exercise etc. The various studies suggested that there was an EMR Umbrella which would be about that distance from the tower.



> In every one of the 10 houses on a residential street close to the
> Sandy Heath transmitter in Bedfordshire, there has been a cancer death


https://www.ecolibria.com.au/electromag ... h-affects/
---------

Anyway, I have my vaccine on Saturday I hope it is the AZ one...


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## John-H

It's temporary and the reason is the precautionary principal. It's recognised that it's better to deploy in general on any risk/benefit analysis but the reason for the temporary halt is to find out if there is indeed any linkage to any sub-group who may be at greater risk of clotting and perhaps should be advised not to participate. It's known that cancer sufferers are at an increased risk of clotting for example. They'll be assessing the people involved for a connection. Of course in this highly charged situation people will make political accusations but the effect on confidence could be of more significance if it causes people to refuse vaccination. Of course if there is no connection and it's just the noise of probability with so many being vaccinated then perhaps people will regain confidence and feel happier the precaution was taken when it resumes.


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## John-H

*Covid: The inside story of the government's battle against the virus
By Laura Kuenssberg
Political editor*










Even stopping shaking hands seemed a step too far for the prime minister.

Before the first major coronavirus briefing on 3 March, he had, I am told, been prepared by aides to say, if asked by journalists, people should stop shaking hands with each other - as per government scientific advice.

But he said the exact opposite. "I've shaken hands with everybody," he said, about visiting a hospital with Covid patients.

And it was not just a slip, one of those present at the briefing says. It demonstrated "the whole conflict for him - and his lack of understanding of the severity of what was coming".

"The prime minister was even heard to say: "The best thing would be to ignore it." And he repeatedly warned, several sources tell me, that an overreaction could do more harm than good."

"The early meetings with the prime minister were dreadful." And inside Downing Street, senior staff's concerns about the government's ability to cope grew.

"There was a genuine argument in government, which everyone has subsequently denied," one senior figure tells me, about whether there should be a hard lockdown or a plan to protect only the most vulnerable, and even encourage what was described to me at that time as "some degree of herd immunity".

There was even talk of "chicken pox parties", where healthy people might be encouraged to gather to spread the disease. And while that was not considered a policy proposal, real consideration was given to whether suppressing Covid entirely could be counter productive.

On 18 March, we reported that a small number of members of staff in No 10 had fallen ill. One insider says: "People were dropping like flies."

The prime minister, however, was acting as though he was impervious to the risk. He had developed a habit of banging his own chest, telling staff he was "strong as a bull". Soon, though, this chest-banging turned into "extreme coughing fits". Tests, in short supply everywhere, were requested for him from 25 March. And two days later, he tested positive.

A former official tells me: "We thought we really could lose him - we had to plan for a full transition." That night was "long and shocking", one source says.

But it was after Barnard Castle that it felt like the mood in the country had changed.

"People wanted to portray the PM as a clown," one minister tells me, "or not up to the level of events."

In July, a grinning chancellor delivered plates of Japanese curry to unsuspecting customers at a London restaurant, to promote his "eat out to help out" scheme. Then the prime minister started to encourage people back to the office.

But behind closed doors, there were significant doubts about the wisdom of this new mood. "We knew there was going to be a second wave," one cabinet minister tells me, "and there was a row about whether people should work from home or not - it was totally ridiculous."

The summer optimism and opening was "the biggest mistake - a rush of blood to the head, another senior figure says. "The PM has to carry the can".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-56361599


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## SwissJetPilot

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## SwissJetPilot

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## FNChaos

SwissJetPilot said:


> Hematologic factors are already a known risk which is why AZ included this statement in their product literature -
> 
> _*7 WARNINGS AND PRECAUTIONS*
> As with any vaccine, vaccination with AstraZeneca COVID-19 Vaccine may not protect all vaccine recipients. Individuals may not be optimally protected until after receiving the second dose of the vaccine.
> 
> *Hematologic*
> Thrombocytopenia and coagulation disorders
> As with other intramuscular injections, AstraZeneca COVID-19 Vaccine should be given with caution to individuals with thrombocytopenia, any coagulation disorder or to persons on anticoagulation therapy, because bleeding or bruising may occur following an intramuscular administration in these individuals._


AZ's generic hematologic warning basically says, "take caution" when giving shots to 'bleeders' since hypodermic injections (regardless of content) may cause excessive bleeding or bruising. Thrombocytopenia is exactly the opposite of clotting.



SwissJetPilot said:


> Interesting article from November 2020
> 
> *New Cause of COVID-19 Blood Clots Identified*
> https://labblog.uofmhealth.org/lab-repo ... identified
> _
> "In patients with COVID-19, we continue to see a relentless, self-amplifying cycle of inflammation and clotting in the body," Kanthi says. "Now we're learning that autoantibodies could be a culprit in this loop of clotting and inflammation that makes people who were already struggling even sicker."_
> 
> With more countries suspending administration of AZ, it will be interesting to see if they can identify the correlation between the effect of the CV19 vaccine and the clotting issue and hopefully get it resolved as quickly as possible.


The article cited draws no correlation between CV vaccines and blood clotting. It says there is a strong correlation between blood clotting and patients who are infected with Covid-19.

To my understanding, there have been fewer clotting incidences by those who have received the AZ vaccine than would be expected in the general public on average. Like the saying goes, "correlation does not imply causation", and I'm not sure there is a case to be made that even supports correlation.



SwissJetPilot said:


> And in case anyone is wondering if this hasn't already become political enough, this was published in the US Department of Health & Human Services 2020 Annual Report -
> 
> _"Combatting malign influences in the Americas: OGA used diplomatic relations in the Americas region to mitigate efforts by states, including Cuba, Venezuela, and Russia, who are working to increase their influence in the region to the detriment of US safety and security._-->snip


And then there is this: Russian Disinformation Campaign Aims to Undermine Confidence in Covid-19 Vaccines :twisted:


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## John-H

Anyway, if you are interested in numbers of unfortunate and unnecessary deaths read Laura Kuenssberg's article I posted above. The numbers due to denial and delay swamp the handful of blood clots. Let's have a sense of proportion.


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## John-H

*Boris Johnson's spokesman won't deny PM said he wanted to 'ignore' Covid-19*
The Prime Minister has been accused of complacency, mistakes and delays - which led to "more deaths". Number 10 didn't deny the allegations










https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/ ... t-23738137


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## SwissJetPilot

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## John-H

I don't see the point in highlighting this when there's no evidence of it being a risk associated with the vaccine?

Did you read Laura's article? There are far more deaths due to delay and dither - several orders of magnitude more than this background noise!


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## John-H

*Boris Johnson faces explosive claims of Covid-19 complacency which led to 'more deaths'
*










The Prime Minister reportedly suggested the best way to deal with Coronavirus would be to "ignore it" - and there was allegedly talk of encouraging "chicken pox parties" in order to let the virus burn through healthy Brits, creating "herd immunity"

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/ ... s-23734169


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## StuartDB

There's an awful lot of deflection and diversion going on in this thread.. demonstrating some unfounded sympathy towards to total failure of the EU regarding vaccines, I hope the UK totally block any incoming people, they need to be in quarantine somewhere first... like a dog in the 70s.

Scotland said they would rather be in the EU, they need to show solidarity with the EU and react to their lunacy agenda.

Angela Merkle said she cannot have the AZ vaccine because 'she is too old' after jumping on Macron comment that it doesn't work for over 65s... all with 0 evidence.

Whatever country it was I cannot remember, said they are only suspending 2 batches - without any further details... and France are still giving the AZ vaccine to people even though they said they have suspended it... just political posturing... how many countries have banned Alcohol, Cigarettes, KFC, McDonald's, Burger King, motorbikes, cars, sexual relationships etc as all of those kill more people in 2 weeks from a 5,000,000 sample so even if there was a link...

It's going to be a really sad day if some of these countries have more deaths than the UK.... its crazy that 52% of people believe the UK would not have been able to ignore the EU statements without Brexit, whilst 48% of people think if Corbyn was in charge and reversed Brexit we would have still stuck 2 fingers up to the EU and done our own thing..? For a start the EU does not allow state sponsorship and that's what we did... and also anyone updating the EU Commission face sanctions and we would not get away with keeping our own for us... I also believe France said they should not have to pay for the AZ vaccine as it is not for profit...

Are France just jealous? They were making their own vaccines, weren't they... how did that turn out? Also they said it has been suspended, but they are still using it... go figure  (realised I said this above somewhere too, you're not going mad)

Anyone who happened to watch Deutschland 86, would have seen that West Germany paid the East German government to test drugs on people to resolve a respiratory disease, caused by West Germany paying East Germany to take their household waste and landfill and burn it in East Germany.... that caused a lot of Pulmonary Embolisms too... 

I will point-out that this mass vaccination process and uncertainty is a perfect time to 'off someone' you don't want anymore... 

If anyone cares to give an opinion on Angela Merkle and / or Macron's comment - that'll be great... and those comments are from the Naked Scientists Dr Chris Smith - not Piers Morgan - so you either trust or don't trust the main virologist on UK media...

Or just bulk out a load more messages to try and push the question out of view 

We are all supposed to be jealous of the German Healthcare, but my German Auntie talking about her 18 y/o grand daughter ( my cousins daughter) she has treatment for cancer a few years ago and a few weeks ago was suddenly unable to move her left arm or leg.. essentially she has a shadow in her brain.. but they had no oncologists to look at her, and have no-one able to treat her... it was only because her husband knew a doctor, they were seen without waiting weeks. Both my Auntie and Cousin complained about how bad the Gernan Health System really is... Compared to my sister whose son was treated for Leukemia (the safer type) from 3 to 7 (extra 1 year to make sure the cancer is not hiding in the testicles), who called Addenbrookes the other-day as her 10 year old had been diagnosed with a condition which can be linked to testicular cancer, she was seen the next day and given the all clear with a follow-up appointment 2 days later to ensure he responding to the Antibiotic treatment given by the GP)

my Nan was German, and moved to the UK a week or two before the war started after her brother (officer in the Army told her and my Grandad to go to England as they are going to start a war in 2 weeks) and my Auntie moved back to Germany after the war... along with my cousins..

I do wonder whether their way of counting covid deaths might be slightly different?
I have Teams meeting every week or two with an Indian Salesforce consultant both in India and Australia and in January he travelled back to Aus and was in quarantine for 2 weeks (I think) - but said Australia is pretty much back to normal and has been for months.


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## FNChaos

On a surprisingly positive note, today former US Pres. Trump _"recommended that all eligible Americans get the coronavirus vaccine when their opportunity comes"_ (though he added a caveat that he also respects people's decisions to not get one).

There have been calls for Trump to endorse the use of vaccinations (which he's avoided until now) in an effort to reduce the spread of Covid-19. Both Trump and his wife received vaccinations in January but did so in private and did not use the opportunity to convince others to do the same.

Cut from: https://www.npr.org/2021/03/16/9780...-vaccine-within-limits-of-freedom?ft=nprml&f=

"Republicans and supporters of the former president are the *least likely to seek a vaccine* for the coronavirus, an NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist survey revealed last week".

*"Almost half of Republican men, 47% of Trump supporters and 41% of Republicans overall said they would not get a vaccine if one is made available to them*".

Trump - _"I would recommend it, and I would recommend it to a lot of people that don't want to get it.... "But it's a great vaccine, it's a safe vaccine, and it's something that works,"_

"Trump's endorsement of the vaccine comes as many of his supporters have embraced baseless and dangerous conspiracies about the coronavirus"

Hopefully Trump's comments will help change the minds of those that follow him...


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## John-H

StuartDB said:


> Angela Merkle said she cannot have the AZ vaccine because 'she is too old' after jumping on Macron comment that it doesn't work for over 65s... all with 0 evidence. ...
> 
> If anyone cares to give an opinion on Angela Merkle and / or Macron's comment - that'll be great... and those comments are from the Naked Scientists Dr Chris Smith - not Piers Morgan - so you either trust or don't trust the main virologist on UK media...
> 
> Or just bulk out a load more messages to try and push the question out of view


I thought that was what you were doing with your confusing random monologues :wink: Sorry. Addressing one factual or relevant reference... albeit very outdated ...

Briefly, the comment was an old one from February when the German regulator had not approved the AZ vaccine for those over 65 and Merkel is 66. This stems from the original AZ trials including very few older people (not quite zero evidence) that the vaccine worked or was proven safe in the older group. There is a great deal of evidence now however because of the vaccine roll out showing both safety and antibody response in older recipients.

Now here's your opportunity for some perspective and proper fact checking.

Laura Kuenssberg presents a special BBC News two part podcast - Covid Confidential - looking back at the last 12 months of the crisis in the UK and how decisions were made at the heart of government:



P.S. Did you know that although the UK has administered the most doses in Europe, the UK is number 27 down the list of countries as a percentage of fully vaccinated population having received two doses in accordance with manufacturers recommendations which the UK has decided to ignore.

See a table here:

https://www.euronews.com/2021/03/16/cov ... ng-the-way

Luckily, the increase of the gap between doses from four to 12 weeks results in an increase in efficacy as shown in recent trials but it could have gone the other way:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/health/2021 ... e/13202050


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## ZephyR2

On a lighter note another potential side effect. A study within the EU has found that with a week of receiving the AZ vaccine over 1000 people have had a lottery win.


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## John-H

ZephyR2 said:


> On a lighter note another potential side effect. A study within the EU has found that with a week of receiving the AZ vaccine over 1000 people have had a lottery win.


Bonus! :lol:


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## StuartDB

So apparently we could have gone our own way (like we did) irrespective of Brexit !!!!

Although, it looks like maybe we cannot go our own way even with Brexit ...

This feels a little bit like a Mafia dictatorship ? Or some kind of protection organised crime?

Good job we're allowed a few extra nukes 

Let's face it, if the UK suddenly allow Shamina Began back into the UK, she's being used to train the EDL ready for a gorilla warfare land invasion to get our products we bought... from both Amazon and AstraZenica what's going to be funny is if a vaccine war kills more people than the illness. 

Why on earth did the UK vote to Leave this utter nonsense?

So essentially Mi6 have 3 targets... 2 in California and the leader of the EU, saying she'll decide who is allowed to be vaccinated. I don't know, we've been out of the EU for 2 months and they're already gone back to being 
communism.. (sorry old school socialism <- there's a fine line  )














































No doubt this post will be deemed.off topic and deleted 

Absolutely shameful, that the EU are allowed to control who lives and who dies in countries outside of their dictatorship..

I suppose the equivalent would be if the Queen said no-one in the UK is allowed to buy wine from Italy until we had bought and drunk all the GreeneKing IPA from Burton On Trent first... or a bit like East Germany in the 70s / 80s where you had to buy more than you sold.. (I wasn't allowed there on a school trip, just like my Dad's business partner daughters were not allowed to go to ballet in USSR <- it's crazy are now comparing the EU to the Soviet Union)  this behaviour by the EU is indefensible.


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## John-H

In my moderator role I was tempted to move your post to the Brexit thread because most of your jingoistic warlike ranting is about the EU - but at least you _know_ you should be keeping to the topic - corona virus.

I guess now you are starting (or should be starting) to realise the value of cooperation 

I'm sure if we were still in the EU you would be all for the EU acting in its and our own interests.


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## John-H

*Covid contracts: Dog food vendor probably earned £1m for PPE deals*










The owner of a dog food firm brokered personal protective equipment deals worth £258m between the government and a Hong Kong firm, a BBC investigation has found.

London-based Zoe Ley is likely to have been paid at last £1m by the firm for her work in securing the deals last spring when the UK was short of PPE.

Ms Ley says she was approached by the UK's Covid taskforce when it was "seeking urgent assistance" to get PPE.

The government denies this.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-56400527

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000t8td

It was only after the BBC's probing that the Government were prompted to publish.

It sought to explain its failure as an "admin error." But even if true - which is doubtful - this doesn't justify a further breach of the law on transparency.

Despite the High Court ruling last month that Matt Hancock had broken the law in failing to publish pandemic contracts, the failures continue. Meanwhile, Boris Johnson and his Minister mislead Parliament about the scale of the breaches. And refuse to come clean about the beneficiaries of its 'VIP' lane.

*"One unfortunate consequence of non-compliance with the transparency obligations&#8230;is that people can start to harbour suspicions of improper conduct..."* said Judge Chamberlain in last month's judgment against Matt Hancock.


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## John-H

*Dominic Cummings brands government's Covid PPE contracts an 'absolute total disaster'*










The Tory government's billions in Covid contracts were an "absolute total disaster", Dominic Cummings has declared.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/ ... s-23744267


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## John-H

Latest infection figures over a week since the schools went back show that the fall in infections has halted with R close to one so far.


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## StuartDB

PROOF: the UK were right in leaving the EU Bloc 14 months ago in that thing called BREXIT

We are getting the 1st Export of Mederna Cov-19 vaccine, in a few weeks. Absolutely, amazing negotiators and investments made by the UK Government.

Remainers- constantly go on about any of the 27 countries in the EU could have, but they didn't did they! The UK have simply out-classed all these failed countries behaving like orphans with a vaccine bowl asking the EuroCommission 'Please Sir can we have some more?' 'Hold Please'

The EU surely will disappear whilst the individual counties will want to deal with the UK and our amazing relationship with the big pharma companies around the world.

The best vaccine business the EU Commission have done so far is state 'we will steal other countries vaccines' (words to that affect)

I hope we start helping Southern Ireland by setting up vaccine centres for them to receive vaccines after they have been let down so badly by the EU Mafia...



















I had my AZ vaccine today, its 3 miles away I left at 4.25 (for my 4.35 appointment) and was back home at about
4.50pm.. no queue, showed booking ref, parked car, had hand sanitiser, followed Maureen, registered , sat behind 1 person, stood on a line, moved forward twice, gave number, took jumper off, confirmed DOB, lifted sleeve, took jab (6 seconds slow injection), took vaccine papers and stamped card (like a puppy) told to bring card back for June booster, and told I can go straight away, did a 4 question exit survey


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## John-H

Well, glad you had your vaccine Stuart, as have I now (any side effects?), but as for your disappointing comments about the EU all I can say is that it doesn't matter how many times a falsehood is claimed to be a fact it will never make it true. Reality doesn't work like that. Don't believe the jingoistic right wing press as we don't want you to end up looking silly along with them when you come here to do some fact checking.

It seems worth repeating, the UK's approval and procurement of vaccines HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH EU MEMBERSHIP OR BREXIT.

Because

The UK ordered stock in advance and approved vaccines last year WHILST STILL OPERATING UNDER EU RULES IN THE TRANSITION PERIOD EFFECTIVELY AS AN EU MEMBER.

Just repeat the bits in capitols over and over to all around until it sinks in so everyone appreciates what it means and we don't get idiots like Ann Widdecombe claiming Brexit saves lives :roll:

To act independently was an option open to any EU member state under EU rules. Whether to join the EU's joint procurement scheme was a sovereign decision for each member state.

Now you can argue about the efficiency or otherwise of the EU's joint procurement scheme but the choice to join it was an independent sovereign decision by reach country (none were forced) and they could still decide to act independently if they wanted to - as indeed many are in deciding whether or not to approve the continued use of the AZ vaccine despite the EU medicines agency's endorsement for example. None have decided as yet to leave the scheme however. Why's that?

Well let's put some things in perspective.

Did you know that whilst the UK is is the leading country in Europe regarding the number of single jabs given to its population, it is way behind on the numbers of citizens *fully vaccinated* with two jabs - about 27th by country (because the UK is delaying the second dose and concentrating on first dose). The EU in total has given far more jabs of course because it is bigger. Here's the relative comparison:
























Sorry I had to post three pictures because the list is so long.


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## StuartDB

I've totally agreed with what you said... (not your whole post just the Brexit bit the reason we got our own deals) and my point is why would we want to be the only competent country in the EU..

Here is where I agreed with you, and we were the only country with the foresight to forge ahead, the EU was dragging us down. That's why I'm glad we left.



> Remainers- constantly go on about any of the 27 countries in the EU could have, but they didn't did they! The UK have simply out-classed all these failed countries behaving like orphans with a vaccine bowl asking the EuroCommission 'Please Sir can we have some more?' 'Hold Please'


I think my quote above confirms I have accepted that the UK was the only country in the EU to plan to protect their citizens. I also think we could help Southern Ireland - vaccine gratis.

It would be interesting to see if a countries government in the EU, is allowed to 'state sponsor' a company - as Oxford University and Astra Zeneca' were sponsored by the UK taxpayers!

I wouldn't be surprised in Prime Minister Boris Johnson gets a Nobel Prize, for his selfless commitment to all of the UK citizens. Leading from the front. 

Ref Vaccine just a bit feverish this morning with a temp of 37.7, and the aching injection site. With the trials they started giving the guinea-pigs paracetamol as a matter of course because the fever is proving your fighting something. 
Paracetamol is an amazing drug, absolutely pointless as a painkiller for most people with chronic pain, but reset your biological thermometer, so when you get so hot you feel cold, and you keep putting layers on, you will start to feel hot again so won't overheat with blankets again. It's a shame that some virologists have said if the booster includes the South African vaccine, the body probably won't notice the difference as it is too similar. It's a bit like antibiotics used for resistant infections, the infectious diseases department try to avoid a broad spectrum antibiotic like Meropenam as if the bacteria becomes resistant to that Antibiotic then they have the key to all the Meropenem derivatives too..

It's like having access to the superclass instead of an extended class


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## StuartDB

Incredibly, yesterday; I was part of ~880,000 people vaccinated in the UK. That's more than some whole countries vaccinations..

Let's Face It
When the EU demand vaccines and threaten to steal them - 10% of the UK support them (usually staunch socialist remainers who would like Deutschland East Berlin running the show)

If the EU ask if the UK could please help them with their vaccination program - 90% of the UK will support the European Commission being given 'some help' considering post Brexit the EU have sold 30% less exports to the UK and the UK have lost 40% less exports to the EU.. I'm sure a deal could be made.


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## John-H

Sorry to hear you had side effects. Apparently it's one in 10 who get them. I've been lucky as it happens. Makes me think I've had water :wink:

Glad you agree it wasn't our EU membership that made any difference to our vaccination procurement. The EU gave us an opportunity to join in a fair joint effort which we didn't take and our roll-out is down to our NHS. We still have a long way to go and time will tell but the main point I would urge is that we ALL need to be vaccinated UK, EU, the world, otherwise the nightmare won't end, so we need to share vaccines rather than indulge in vaccine nationalism.


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## StuartDB

I think women are suffering AZ side effects more, like I said i had a fever, my wife had on / off issues for a couple of weeks (although she has lots of other complications) and my mum had Pfizer and asked if I had AZ as my female cousin and several other younger female friends of my mum said they had issues.. I don't call a fever showing an antibody reaction a bad thing... if they all had dvt and necrosis then I suppose that's an issue.. I get enough migraines to no0t be concerned from a tiny temp for a couple of hours.

In not sure the news helps, when they talk about dog nappers everyone assumes you'll get the dog stolen, when someone is mugged, you think everyone is a mugger, and when some people got ill from a vaccine, you get chest pains. When I started having my liver investigations I could feel it hurting, until I realised the liver was much higher- now I reckon its a grumbling appendix  (the pain a grumbling appendix, the liver thing is real - some iron overload? )


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## John-H

One year on today since the first lockdown with 126,172 dead. R at one since the schools opened two weeks ago. Lockdowns being re-imposed in Europe. Still a long way to go.


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## SwissJetPilot

Post deleted by user.


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## StuartDB

Yeah they've been discussing this a few weeks ago. It only gives cover for a couple of hours.

A couple of interesting things being discussed - infecting people with a harmless Rhino virus which will stop Coronavirus.

Below is about Phage being used to treat infections with infections, when I researched Pseudomonus in hospital, it seemed the most effective method was to have a bespoke treatable infection given to the patient, which kills off the resistant infection- but I still don't think it would work on metal work infections only something properly reachable.

In 2010, I had an antibiotic resistant hospital infection "Pseudomonus Aeruginosa" after some muck-ups after being knocked off my motorbike. They tried 6 or 7 antibiotics over the months in Addenbrookes, as well as plastic surgery, to move my calf flesh over the cut out infection over my metal work. And skin graph over my calf. When, I refused any more antibiotics after renal failure.. I went home to get some strength for when it would get angry again.. (the following year) anyway getting to the point.. I asked my infectious diseases consultant whether they could try 'Phage' as they do this in Russia, he didn't really know what it was but said 'the NHS wouldn't purposely infect someone' essentially the infection left when the metal was removed. As it hides under a gel blob, and can stay in this state for years. It has been found in buckets of bleech in hospitals, then spread into wards when the floor is mopped.


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## John-H

I remember watching an episode of Horizon years ago about phages and how a huge library of phage samples was in danger of being lost and that they could help with the problem of antibiotic resistance. They are viruses which infect bacteria and have been used for years in the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe and even France. Some can look very strange:
















https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bacteriophage

News today reports that the EU will be checking exports of vaccines. To date they have exported 41 million doses to other countries outside the block including 10 million to the UK.

Interesting that the UK has not exported any doses to the EU and Johnson didn't exactly help with his comments that the UK progress has been because of _"capitalism and greed"_. I hope it's not another Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe moment. We need to be cooperating.

Another thing he said was a warning that _"the third wave in Europe could wash up on our shoes"_. I think he's getting the blame game ready for when he needs to cancel opening up or re-introduce another lockdown. The thing is the Kent B.1.1.7 variant is already the dominant strain here and we passed it onto Europe who are locking down again because of it. If you look at the last graph I posted with the schools having gone back the fall in infections has halted and R = 1 again. I don't think we should be opening up any more otherwise we'll be into exponential growth again. So what's he going to do - open up in response to pressure and have to lock down again and blame the EU or delay opening up, blame the EU and hope that more people getting vaccinated will dig him out of the ditch?


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## StuartDB

Appalling behaviour amounting to an export ban, to countries better off than the worst country in the EU.

Let's hope AZ set up a Fill and Finish plant in the UK, whilst that is being completed we don't need to export any of the vaccine components we contribute.

Also the EU are essentially sending in the Stasi in raid and examine product and paperwork, in any plant in any country in the EU.

Really Embarrassing for the EU

THE WHOLE WORLD IS WATCHING


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## John-H

Did you not spot that the UK have exported zero to the EU and the EU have exported 10 million to the UK? Isn't that the opposite way round to what you are saying? The UK are effectively operating an export ban to the EU through the the contract it has with Astrazeneca. Is that fair and Ok?

What about India when the UK was due to get deliveries from them but they've now said they are keeping them because they need them for themselves. Nobody is saying appalling behavior by India but some like to jump on the EU because it's double standards hoby horse ism :roll:


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## StuartDB

And another example of the EU incompetence... purposely played out in public by Germany - they don't want to negotiate to get Sputnik V until they have approved it and know how many doses they should buy.

If the UK were to sign up tomorrow, the EU will not allow them to pass through Europe to UK.

The EU actually have 47,000,000 doses of AZ sitting in a secure plant in Italy. But they are not agreeing to the manufacturer plant in Netherlands yet... its just crazy they are so terrible.

https://www.politico.eu/article/germany ... -v-russia/


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## StuartDB

Yeah... the EU are self sufficient they can and have made their own vaccines, we send loads of vaccine components to the EU to be fill and finished, then returned to us.. what they are supposed to do is make their own vaccines from the components in the Netherlands (which they do have 47m AZ doses - that are theirs) we are not taking any of their components only the bottling services from the AZ, and yes we have had some Pfizer jabs from our deal with Pfizer, we made in May... We need our own bottling factory.

I do think we need to set the whole EU as a redlist for travel.


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## John-H

:lol: you are being such an attack extremist Stuart. Do you not think we should be working together? Doesn't that apply to the UK as well as the EU? Do you think EU citizens should go without? It all just highlights the mutinational nature of production and how much we all need each other. Or should we be ruled by capitalism and greed?


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## StuartDB

I'm actually at Papworth (well driving round in circles for hours, after thinking my wife was going to be ready at midday, we are only 30 minutes away from Addenbrookes)

But they are building an AstraZeneca Project on Addenbrookes Road.


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## John-H

There's a huge sprawling plant near me but not linked to the vaccine. I believe AZ contribute 1% of UK GDP.

You never said anything about the lovely phage pictures I found


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## John-H

How refreshing to see a leader give a wholehearted apology for a mistake:

https://www.euronews.com/2021/03/24/ger ... r-lockdown

Unlike our own bunch who never admit to anything, claim they are following the science when they are shaking hands not, refuse to resign despite 130k deaths which they achieved due to over confidence, dither, delay and misplaced boosterism, refuse to sack Cummings, corrupt PPE procurement, wasting billions of public money on a failed test and trace system, slagging off the opposition warnings which are eventually proved right, and refuse to hold an enquiry to see where they went wrong.

What a contrast :evil:


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## StuartDB

The Belgium MEP today on Radio5live said the following...

1. AstraZeneca Vaccine has well publicised issues with safety but we understand the illness is worse than the risk of vaccine, so we have accepted that. 
--- totally unchallenged by the 'five live drive' presenters

2. 5LIVE: When highlighted there's not much take up of vaccines and vaccine centres are left with vaccines left over.
MEP: Yes because of the published issues with the AstraZeneca vaccine causing blood clots, and also the UK residents do not want it either. 
---- again unchallenged on the safety of AZ

3. MEP: did you know the local police visited a plant and found over 30m AZ doses hidden....
5LIVE: (finally challenged one thing) AZ made a statement suggesting these are
EU vaccines awaiting approval by the EU.
(But it was not accurate, they were military police and military medical officers, and it was a raid not a visit, and they were from the Netherlands AZ site which EU have not approved)

3. Our argument is not with Britain it is with AZ they said they would give them vaccines from Britain in the contract. And they haven't, and we don't want to have 'starlinism', as that will cause a trade war, then no-one will get any vaccines. So Britain need to give us vaccines to meet AZ commitment. 
(There's been plenty of legal beagles stating Britain don't have to, after reviewing the contract and 2 conflicting points included)

4. She said when the pandemic should have started there should have only been one world approach to the vaccine, and everyone should have got them all at the same time. 
(Honestly, she reminded me of the East Berlin normals in Deutschland 83 / 86 / 89)

Her party has Socialism in its name but it is the 'cold war' meaning.

BBC Came across pretty left wing in their lack of challenging the guests made up stories.

There's going to be some violence, either by the public or the authorities. I'm loving the response to Germany statement to the EU 'We should pre-order Sputnik V?'

EU:No we will first approve it, then we will have a vote to see if we should order some then the Countries will say how many doses they want, then we can negotiate with Russia.... I want Boris to order 10m tomorrow and fast track through our thing everyone else in the EU can do to. And once passed get them dished out.

I would also be up for AZ to either fulfil the initial and cancel the extra option for more, or just pay them back.

My highlight from Jeremy Vine this morning, when discussing putting the entire EU on the RedList.. an English ex-pat from Portugal called and said, the UK are the blame for all this, they should not be allowed in Europe, not the other-way around...  (pretty sure it's the same thing)
Are you vaccinated, yes I am in 1 month and I'm 50 so wouldn't be allowed if in the UK, Portugal are vaccinating more people than the UK now. 
(In Feb Portugal were vaccinating 23k people a day and are vaccinating over 50s at the moment)

Just imagine the sanctions the UK would be under if we hadn't invoked article50 and left the looney Bloc, Brexit really has highlighted the instability of having essentially 'a company' of - unelected, unmonitored, unmeasured individuals like some kind of Empire, Protection Racket or Mafia.. who are essentially incharge of 27 'infants' (countries who don't have the resources or ability to manage themselves)

I cannot see the EU Commission still being here in 5 years time... they have played their card that they have a special skilled military team who can raid any home or business without any warning and audit their records, stock, file systems, emails, personal belonging, friends and relatives. I bet they even check babies nappies for hidden USB drives.... <- it sounds so familiar from a time in the past.

I reckon if Boris Johnson folds and gives into the EU he will be out of the party shortly afterwards (the same day) and will need his own secret army and 2 planes flying in different directions whilst he's hiding in a northern slate mine, as 52% of the UK voted to stop that exact type of EU control and UK submission, will be marching towards Downing Street and the 48000 Full time coppers as 52000 of them will also be in the March will remind him what we voted for.


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## StuartDB

John-H said:


> There's a huge sprawling plant near me but not linked to the vaccine. I believe AZ contribute 1% of UK GDP.
> 
> You never said anything about the lovely phage pictures I found


I did like the pictures but assumed they were an illustration in paint... it is a bit crazy, but my favourite wall pictures in Addenbrookes corridors were cancer, it's one of the most beautiful things which are just awful in reality.

It does feel a little bit like something Nano technology could be tasked to do.

I think Scotland contribute 3% to GDP... it probably used to be 5% before covid and when the oil was worth more than the labour to extract it.

Cov Id symptoms wise.. 2 days after my vaccine I recall going downstairs to the kitchen feeling a bit confused why I was there? I sat in the living room for a few minutes, then heard a noise from the kitchen the hobs were on with pans on two of them, one has water in.. and the kettle was boiling milk all other the worktop and floor.

I vaguely remember putting milk in the kettle? Something I have never done in my life...

My mate reckons it was just Bill Gates testing my interface...

My wife had her Papworth consultation today and after being there from 8am to 4pm was asked how things are at home... her reply was pretty much -
I have been locked in a house for 12 months, essentially limited to a bedroom and the only other people at home now are my 21 year old son with asbergous and a husband with psuedo-dementia who boiled a kettle full of milk at 3am the other night.  I think she is hoping to get a 'record voucher' or something.


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## John-H

As I keep telling you, the UK's moves setting up vaccine supply was done under EU law whilst effectively still in the EU in the transition period - a decision open to any sovereign member state. So given that, there can then be no legal sanction applied against that if we were still in the EU, just as there can't be now. Any action taken has to be within the existing law.

The problem seems to be in the contracts. It seems AZ has contradictory contracts such that the UK has exclusivity for the vaccines produced at the AZ plants in the UK and the EU has contracts with AZ which list a number of manufacturing plants including the UK's.


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## John-H

An update. The EU has exported 77 million doses since early December.


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## StuartDB

Yeah... but as biontech has told the EU... stay away they need a shed load of stuff from the UK and if political moves impact a trade war the EU will end up with nothing.

The UK has had 11 Pfizer vaccines from EU, although the EU were just part of it.

And EU raided 'stasi' style with military police and military medical scientists, an Italy plant where 17m were nothing to do with the EU at all, and 30m were waiting for the EU to sign off their own plant. This raid was published as 'hidden vaccines discovered' (all the UK vaccines are hidden, otherwise they'll be stolen)

Watch Deutschland 83, 86, 89 and The Americans what the East German GDR HVA (along with a weakened USSR story showed) East Germany were essentially testing medication created for a respiritory disease (which was caused by East Germany taking in household waste from West Germany) the medicine caused blood clots too.

Why are the EU ignoring Germany recommending the Spudnik V... other EU countries are already demanding why 1,000,000 vaccines go to some member states (Germany I expect) and only 80,000 go to others (Southern Ireland maybe <- they are famous for 'sticky blood, so probably want a heparin, clexane set of tummy jabs too)

The Belgium MEP stating the 'whole world' should be given the same amount per % population wise doesn't realise that 1% of India is quite a lot more than 1% of San Marino 

I just want to stand-by and watch, this is better (24 hour news cycle) voyeurism than Harry and Meghan 

Hopefully, the UK will start setting up decent pharma factories, my wife worked in a pharmaceutical bottling and labeling factory when she left school) in 1980s

I'm not being funny here but how many AZ doses has the UK actually had ? The EU have surely had more than us and we signed 3 months before, paid to set up a collaboration.. and started administering 2 months before the EU. We have only used 28,000,000 doses (including at least 11,000,000 pfizer) and as we found out yesterday the EU have 30m AZ doses sitting in a shed.

I do wonder if the EU regret forcing AZ to charge less than cost price.. the Vaccine is £3 but the EU pressured them into less.

I would like to see the UK military police and the data protection / information teams to raid Glaxo, J&J, AZ and Pfizer supply manufacture labs and start auditing what they are making and who they are going to. So we can protect the delivery chains, as these chemicals are valuable so the manufacturers should start paying for protection to ensure the pay-loads are not interfered with.


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## John-H

I don't know where you are getting some of that information from Stuart but as of 23 March the UK had put around 30 million jabs in arms and publicly stated that about 13 million of these are Pfizer jabs, *all of which are imported from the EU.* Alongside this, the UK has received 5 million from the Serum Institute in India, and significant numbers of Astrazeneca vaccine from the Halix plant in the Netherlands.

The UK has probably produced slightly less than half of its total, somewhere between 10 and 15 million jabs, or enough to provide somewhere around 20% of its 68 million population with a first vaccination.

The EU has produced over 100 million doses, enough vaccines for about 20% of its 447 million population.

So why the difference in roll out?

The reason is European producers have exported about a third of their production globally, to countries such as Mexico, Canada, Chile, the US and, above all, the largest recipient, the UK. The overwhelming reason why the UK is so far ahead with its vaccination programme is that it has received so many vaccines from the EU.

By contrast not a single dose has been exported by the UK.

The publicly signed and published contracts show that the EU contracted *one day before* the UK, and that both contained clauses requiring 'best reasonable efforts' to supply the contracted amount. Both also referred to the same four factories, two in the UK and two in the EU as suppliers.

The explanation is simple: having promised to supply the UK preferentially, and the EU fairly, Astrazeneca simply cannot do both, and so has made a commercial decision to breach the contract that will cost it less.

The UK thus decided to get as many vaccines as it could for itself, at any cost. It promises to contribute to global vaccine supply, but only after it has served itself. The European producers, by contrast, have accepted that they have a global and regional role, even though this means domestic shortages.

The characterisation being made in much of the media is not a fair one.

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2021 ... cinations/


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## John-H

Latest data. I've added hospital admissions. These closely precede deaths as you might expect and they both lag cases.


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## SwissJetPilot

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## John-H

Individual countries may require confirmation of vaccination before travel as they do for other transmissible diseases - that's up to them but there is a question about asymptomatic transmission and variants which may limit any effectiveness which is partly what the WHO are getting at.

Then there's the question about internal "passports" or "freedom passes" as they've been called to which the following applies:

Prior to everyone being vaccinated, vaccine passports will be unfair and discriminatory to those who can't have or have not yet been offered full two dose vaccination including the young who will be last on the list.

Vaccines will protect those vaccinated but not 100% and evidence about asymptomatic transmission and therefore the protection provided to others is less clear - so who is being protected by such a sceme and what is the point of it?

When everyone has been vaccinated there will be no point in confirming you've been vaccinated as has everyone - so again there is no point to such a scheme.

If unvaccinated people are a danger why are we relaxing restrictions? This should only be done in tandem with increasing the number vaccinated to ensure there is no added danger associated with mixing. It won't be just pubs where a passport scheme was being considered where people will mix.

There will be exemptions and the eventual small number of unvaccinated people won't make much difference to achieving herd immunity. The most important thing is to maximise take up through encouragement to get there as soon as possible.

New virus variants, which the current vaccines might be ineffective against, will effectively set us back to square one - and a repeat of the above arguments will apply again.


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## SwissJetPilot

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## StuartDB

I don't have a vaccination record and have never used one or needed to show one. So I'm not sure about using something people don't have.


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## SwissJetPilot

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## John-H

That's all for international travel which unless it's for your job is not so frequent - holidays etc.

I heard a number of people saying they were in favour of a "national freedom pass" and wouldn't go into a pub unless they were sure everyone else had had the vaccine.

Let's break that down: If the vaccine works why are they worried?

If the vaccine doesn't work what good is knowing?

So do all the young have to watch their elders enjoy themselves with a false or pointless sense of security whilst they are excluded?

Then when everyone's done what's the point?


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## SwissJetPilot

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## StuartDB

John-H said:


> That's all for international travel which unless it's for your job is not so frequent - holidays etc.
> 
> I heard a number of people saying they were in favour of a "national freedom pass" and wouldn't go into a pub unless they were sure everyone else had had the vaccine.
> 
> Let's break that down: If the vaccine works why are they worried?
> 
> If the vaccine doesn't work what good is knowing?
> 
> So do all the young have to watch their elders enjoy themselves with a false or pointless sense of security whilst they are excluded?
> 
> Then when everyone's done what's the point?


I am getting a little bit concerned with some of the pressure that "everyone must be vaccinated", and then if you dont get a vaccine you'll become a Social Piranha, it does annoy me a bit - especially when BBC presenters shutdown anyone in a phone-in who say they are not going to have a vaccine because.... , also magazine shows like Jeremy Vine who does an awful lot of virtue signalling - _funniest was today nearly crashing a e-scooter twice riding one and saying if everyone had one no-one would die from a car accident._

All UK certified Cov-ID vaccines are covered by the Vaccine Damage Program and pays up to 120K to anyone with permanent damage, so this is an opportunity to get kidney failure, narcolepsy, a stroke (even if the Pulmonary Embolism stories were true it is very difficult to get a dislodged DVT or a PE into the brain as the blood doesn't pump that way)


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## jamesonmount

FNChaos said:


> A couple of quick points:
> 
> On the average it takes the FDA 12 years from application to approval before an experimental drug is allowed to enter the market.
> 
> The first know US case of Covid-19 was recorded on Jan 19 2020 (patient showed up at one of the hospitals I work at BTW). One year later there were ~ 400K dead. Since January 2021 there have been an additional 130k dead in the US bringing the total to over ½ million people.
> 
> Waiting for the FDA to formally approve a Covid vaccine using its standard practice would be unacceptable considering the time frame for approval and the speed which Covid spreads.
> 
> Additionally, everyone that contracts Covid-19 (no matter how minor) is an opportunity for the virus to mutate (and RNA-based Viruii have a high rate of mutation). Delaying the roll-out might mean a fully vetted vaccine would be useless by the time it became available. The FDA granted Emergency Use Authorization based on growing evidence that vaccines are effective and there has been little evidence to date that side-effects are life-threatening. Since the FDA didn't follow their SOP they added a disclaimer as a CYA. Vaccine manufactures did the same.
> 
> The guidelines for administering vaccines are strict. For example, immediately after receiving an injection, I was put into an observation area and monitored for 15 minutes before I was allowed to leave. I was also tracked by the CDC everyday (via phone app) for a week after each injection and then every week for several week following the vaccination. All symptoms and reactions were recorded (increasing data points) and the CDC would follow up personally if any responses were deemed significant.
> 
> As far as my trust being _'based on belief that it works and not actual scientific facts'_, I would say that I make no claims to be an expert but I do read everything I can get my hands on concerning Covid-19 & the various approaches to defeating it. I also have an advantage over most people since I have access to the advice of medical professionals (who are experts) due to my profession.
> 
> Of course there are no guarantees that Covid vaccines are 100% harmless, but when comparing the odds of an adverse reaction to a vaccine to the known adverse effects caused by Covid, I'll take my chances with the vaccine.
> 
> Finally, I'd reframe the question from it being a personal decision (whether not not to vaccinate) to one of, _"What is the greater good?"_ Sometime you need to 'take one for the team' regardless of one's personal safety.


I still think a vaccine is a great solution to problems, but when will it help us? Because there will always be a circle of people who do not have money for a vaccine, so the virus will not be completely destroyed, plus it will mutate and the vaccine will not help. This is the wheel of Samsara, which seems to be spinning forever.


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## John-H

We might find out from here. I read this :lol: :

"Not only was the previous wood-panelled location far smarter, but the party of business seems to have been completely rinsed for their £2.6m. It looks like it cost about what a leading public school would spend on the set for a sixth-form play about a man who becomes prime minister. Which I suppose is what we're watching."

https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... rony-shame


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## FNChaos

jamesonmount said:


> FNChaos said:
> 
> 
> 
> A couple of quick points:
> 
> snip-->The guidelines for administering vaccines are strict.Spam link removed For example, immediately after receiving an injection<--snip
Click to expand...

Not sure why you quote me and then add a 'spam' link into the quote? A new mutation, Corona-topic virus perhaps? :lol:

So it appears that 'vaccine passports' are becoming the next _"culture-war"_ issue in the US...

There is a big disparity in who has / intends to get vaccinated and who hasn't / doesn't. 
Those who don't tend to be conservative & male, and there is a growing realization that refusing to be vaccinated due to one's political affiliation 'might' have additional consequences (beyond lack of immunity) should passports become a reality.

_"Among Republican men, 49% said they did not plan to get the shot, compared with just 6% of Democratic men who said the same. Among those who said they supported President Trump in the 2020 election, 47% said they did not plan to get a coronavirus vaccine compared with just 10% of Biden supporters"._

Cut from: https://www.npr.org/sections/corona...ncy-among-white-and-black-americans-poll-find

_"Republicans are up in arms over the possibility that businesses and local governments may require vaccine passports for people to get access to certain activities, buildings or events"

"Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) has urged his state's GOP-controlled legislature to pass a law forbidding passes showing proof of coronavirus vaccination, while vowing to take executive action. Congressional Republicans have similarly slammed the passports, framing them as invasive."_

Cut from: https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/545670-battle-rages-over-vaccine-passports


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## StuartDB

Germany stopped using AZ because 9 people died after 2,700,000 were vaccinated... but 200+ people died today, along with 20,000+ new infections.
I want to knock on wood because France has 10x the new infections and 10x the deaths.

Italy is creeping up on us, another 12 days. And they'll be infront of us. Read an article today that AZ should never had embarked on this nightmare, they have lost 20b USD for nothing, and have said after the current contracts have been fulfilled, they will 'sell'/'give away' the patent, or charge a real price for the vaccine, I assume the EU realise SputnikV is the stolen AZ vaccine but using Human Anti-gens instead of Chimp Anti-gens.










It feels a bit off showing a table, but it is presented as a score table... so...?


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## John-H

Some good news in the data. What had seemed to be a halting in the fall in infections which caused R = 1 has dropped slightly in a cluster over the last few days so brought R back down again to around 0.8. The deaths and leading hospital admissions has continued to fall. Hopefully this trend will continue and we don't blow it over the Easter weekend.


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## StuartDB

Yeah, I'm expecting more kids will start getting ill, where old biddies are whacking then with walking sticks.. they are leaving so much litter around our way in the parks, I cannot let our puppy off because she keeps finding food, masks even tampons.


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## StuartDB

Jesus Christ - you can take the Mussolini out of Italy... but he's certainly got his following...
People will have their Pay Stopped if they do not have a vaccine..  utter lunacy

The Italian Prime Minister is so far left he's now right wing


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## FNChaos

StuartDB said:


> Jesus Christ - you can take the Mussolini out of Italy... but he's certainly got his following...
> People will have their Pay Stopped if they do not have a vaccine..  utter lunacy


Vaccine requirements are nothing new in certain professions. The only difference between then & now is the politicization of Covid-19.

In both California & Washington, an annual flu shot is the price of admission if you want to work in hospitals.

I am allowed to decline the hepatitis vaccine series (I didn't) but would be required to view an annual refresher course on infectious diseases and sign a waver if I declined.

Both my wife (who is a High School teacher) and I are required to have a TB (tuberculosis) test performed every couple of years in order to continue to work in our respective fields.

No one is forced to comply, but choosing not to get vaccinated means you'd need to find a different line of employment...

Personally, I view vaccines as 'armor'. If they make a shot for it, I want it. 
Even better if its a requirement for employment as your employer is then required to pay for them.
The way I see it, the more protection I have the more places I can go & the more things I can do safely.


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## StuartDB

So if a government will enforce a mandatory vaccine. (There's no way an MP should be allowed in London)

They need to all do this first.. followed by every GP, Surgeon, registrar, nurse, toilet cleaner.
And it must be the cheapo one  so our AZ Jab @ £3 not the Pfizer @15 or Merderna @20 or JJ @??

This is absolute lunacy.. it is simply documenting every person and their medical history..
I have taken. Anti epilepsy medication for 11 years and never have had an epileptic fit. It needs to be collected along with a dna sample.

The AZ vaccine is interesting 7 people from 30 have died from an interesting blood clot... its very rare.. but only 30 people got one from 18,000,000 .. but they would not have had one without the vaccine. So is that £120,000 x 30 compensation for knowingly risking a vaccine induced blood clot or 7 ? A sinus blood clot, doesn't feel co-incidental ? It's like saying we'll teach everyone to cross a motorway and saying only 1 in every 10,000 people got run over... so that's good.... but none of those 10,000 were going to try and cross the motorway were they?

I don't like the idea of it... if they really want rid of more people they need to hang them, like in 'A Handmaid Tale'

I want to see some evidence of the 100% efficacy from the Pfizer Vaccine for 12-16 year olds the Trial was 2000 so 1000 vaccinated and 1000 not vaccinated and none of them got ill... or did 1000 unvaccinated kids get ill?

They already stated 1 in a million get ill, so the trial needs to be 200,000,000 doesn't it?


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## John-H

Careful Stuart, all your thoughts are coming out loud again.

The blood clot thing is interesting. I've seen normal population prevalence figures for cerebral venous thrombosis (CVT) clotting quoted from five per million to 1.6 per 100,000 (BMJ) per year so for a 18,000,000 sample you'd expect 90 to 288 cases in a year normally. So are the 30 cases over the period the vaccine was given a coincidence? Apparently the chances of getting thromboembalism from COVID-19 are about 1 in 6 and the C-19 infection mortality rate is about 1,000 per million infected.

There's an analysis in the Lancet based on Danish data here: 
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00762-5/fulltext


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## StuartDB

Yeah, there's less in the UK compared to the continent ... I didn't realise it was a clot in the brain. They discussed on the news, whether these people might have covid at the same time as being given the vaccine. I always thought a clot in the brain was deemed a stroke. Weird that it's mainly women under 60 effected.

It still doesn't mean that everyone is forced to have a vaccine. If you take the choice away, it creates resentment - the current community encouragement, has been effective so far. Everyone I know who are entitled have had it, and half said they wouldn't as don't want to be guinea-pigs.


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## John-H

*Covid 'super strain may cause devastating outbreak' if lockdown eased too soon*

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/c ... g-23844197


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## StuartDB

I would like to say what doesn't kill us makes us stronger - but that really isn't the case with cov-id

I think the expert virologists were a bit premature with their "when it mutates it becomes less deadly as exchanges that to be more transmissible" and now they are all tell us public to not keep saying (what we were told by the and their peers) as it isn't true.

maybe we just need to suck it up and accept there's too many people in the world, and this will sort out lots of problems, we can slow it down, but cannot stop the inevitable.


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## StuartDB

Another massive fail for EU and sad missed opportunity for AZ (who spend £3 making a dose of covid vaccine and EU negotiated £2.50 somehow) ?

Hungary have 'approved' Sputnik at €16 a dose and €30 a dose for Chinese covid vaccine. That's €60 euro per person from the Chinese government, for their vaccine.

https://www.euronews.com/2021/03/12/mat ... y-tells-eu

They have published the entire contracts, and are tired of the EU Commission lack luster approach to their citizens. I think they spent a couple of weeks agreeing payment and transfer, so they can vaccinate their people. Hopefully AZ will start charging proper money too soon..

Right at the beginning of the delivery of AZ vaccines, the EU accused AZ of not delivering to them because other people paid more... if it transpires the EU Commission decided each EU citizens' life (not 'lives' surely as we are not cats) is worth less than the cost of production of a "not for profit" vaccine, they will be destroyed (like in "The Hand Maiden's Tale", when someone attacked one of them) shame on the EU for gambling with 400,000,000 people's welfare and future.

So as you suggested John, other countries can approve and separately purchase their own, but what damage will this cause? (EU wise...? Will they allow this anarchy? A bit like a house survey, you only need one.. so all the other countries can see 4 weeks after the Hungary jabs that everyone's okay, they can get their own.. and will Hungary get a referrers fee?)

Have Hungary really tested and approved these vaccines? They only have 9.5 million people? Surely they have just said... yep let's do it..


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## John-H

You can't one minute say the EU is a dictatorship and a bad thing and the next say their lack of dictatorship is causing anarchy and is a bad thing. Both can't be true and the reason is that neither are true.

The EU's vaccine procurement scheme was done for all the right reasons in an effort to avoid vaccine nationalism. The difficulty over the AZ vaccine supply I've already covered - the UK are effectively implementing a vaccine export ban through contact. We're not exported even one vaccine. The EU in contrast have been exporting vaccines worldwide and the biggest customer has been the UK. Which deserves the shame?


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## StuartDB

> .... :
> You can't one minute say the EU is a dictatorship and a bad thing and the next say their lack of dictatorship is causing anarchy and is a bad thing....


Of course, I can that's exactly what anarchy is...

Just like I might disagree with the new police law and disagree with the riots about the bill. Or be angry about racism and also angry about the BLM riots. Disagree with abortion, but also state that women are entitled to do whatever they wish. I am not carrying on, I think you understand the point I am making. Regarding the EU they have been exposed for what they are, and the individual member states are now also seeing them for what they are and being forced to 'go it alone" in football, when the team isn't working they replace the management, but when management are self-elected and self-managed the players leave the club instead.

Which Segways back to I think everyone should be vaccinated by I don't think they should be mandatory


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## John-H

Well you seem to be agreeing with my point that neither extreme is true and what is required is more in the middle gained from understanding and compromise.


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## StuartDB

I wish you would stop saying I agree with you... unless you have a Black TT as they are the fastest colour.

I am more similar to an Amazon Union Busting Robot Ambassadors..


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## John-H

Regarding "vaccine passports" being used to relax social distancing, the calculation on the R rate is quite interesting.

As you can see in *this article* discussing the transmission blocking effects of vaccines it's a difficult thing to measure and certainly not the same thing as efficacy against preventing severe illness, which is the presumptive mistake our politicians seem to be making.

The Astrazeneca trial taking swab tests every week and comparing vaccinated to placebo groups suggested the vaccine only reduced transmission by a factor of about 0.5 (49.3%).

The natural R0 rate for the dominant Kent variant is 5.2 and we've brought the current measured R rate down to around 0.8 with a combination of social distancing and vaccinations done so far.

So if vaccination halves transmission (reducing R0 from 5.2 to 2.6) social distancing is having a much bigger effect. A factor between 2.6/0.8 = 3.25 for all vaccinated and 5.2/0.8 = 6.5 for only social distancing affecting R.

So, if we use vaccination certificates as a false excuse for removing social distancing precautions we will likely push R back up towards 2.6 and exponential growth which would be very dangerous if done before everyone is vaccinated.

The virus would still be in circulation even then and likely to produce variants.


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## StuartDB

> &#8230;.The Astrazeneca trial taking swab tests every week and comparing vaccinated to placebo groups suggested the vaccine only reduced transmission by a factor of about 0.5 (49.3%)&#8230;.


that is actually quite good, there was no expectancy that vaccinated people would stop spreading it, only not get ill from it.

I think the blood clot investigations are not going away, the fact it seems to be affecting relatively young women, must help the investigations. as soon as someone getting vaccinated may have more chance to die from the vaccine than the illness. they'll need to stop... so the fact under 30s are not getting AZ, maybe highlights the line in the sand.

this is a whole feature of Deutschland 86 (I think 86) medication to stop a respiratory disease being tested on East Germans (it was Western medicine) - not sure how true it was.

Edited: hole to whole


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## John-H

It's not good enough. The point I was making was that transmission is only shown to the reduced by half (not the 100% like many are presuming from their comments) and that social distancing has a much bigger effect. So swapping one for the other is going to be a bad idea.

Also, the trial is not such a reliable measure in the circumstances where transmission is reduced by other mitigating factors. Transmission is one of the most difficult things to measure. You really want to be tracing individual infections to be sure - or wait until a whole population is vaccinated to get an averaged picture when social distancing is removed - but then it's too late - or now is too early.


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## StuartDB

You know the types of dreams where 'you are trying to outrun a tidal wave'..? (We all have them) - Humanity is at the point where running won't help anymore, and instead we need to face the tidal wave and roll with the wash up the shingle into the cave and try and pot-hole our way out to life.

Covid-19 is so last decade


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## FNChaos

China is now admitting that its Sinopharm Covid-19 vaccine isn't very effective.

_"In a rare admission of the weakness of Chinese coronavirus vaccines, the country's top disease control official says their effectiveness is low and the government is considering mixing them to get a boost."_
cut from: https://www.politico.com/news/2021/04/11/china-covid-vaccines-480802

_"It's now under formal consideration whether we should use different vaccines from different technical lines for the immunization process," Gao said at a conference in Chengdu, according to the New York Post."_
cut from: ttps://www.nationalreview.com/news/...accines-dont-have-very-high-protection-rates/

Guessing Hungary is now regretting its agreement to purchase Sinopharm @ the inflated cost of $36.00 / dose. Can't blame Hungary for being proactive, trying to vaccinate everyone quickly, but Hungary has shown a inclination to undermine its allies by working directly with the Russians and the Chinese... this time it appears to have bitten them in the butt.


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## StuartDB

I think Brazil have used synopharme too..

It was probably only useful for the original coronavirus which had a tiny death rate.

I don't expect Hungary will still have to pay, I thought China were only able to create 150m doses a year, or was that for their other vaccine


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## John-H

One thing that I'm please to see in government, and was surprised at its source but good to see that the message is getting through, as shown by a statement by the Prime Minister:

_*"Of course the vaccination programme has helped, but the bulk of the work in reducing the disease has been done by the lockdown,"*_

Finally it's being publicly acknowledged that the R rate is likely only reduced in half by vaccines but by a factor of five by lockdown (based on Astrazeneca trial data and the R0 of the Kent variant and given R is now below one). Something I've been pushing for people to realise.

More worryingly he went on to say:

_*"So, as we unlock, the result will inevitably be that we will see more infection, sadly we will see more hospitalisation and deaths.

"People have just got to understand that."*_

That last part could be a warning about a small number or a large number of deaths depending on how much we suppress the virus and how quickly we reduce the effects of lockdown.

Infections are around the same as they were in September before it all took off. My worry is we are unlocking too soon again with too big an underlying infection rate. For the sake of a little longer in lockdown to suppress the virus into patches manageable by test trace and isolation, with proper incentives to test and for those asked to isolate, we may be substituting a later damaging wave of rising infections.


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## StuartDB

Italy now has a higher death ratio of COV ID than the UK.

ITALY 60,000,000 people and 115,000 deaths ~ 1.92%
UK 68,000,000 people and 126,000 deaths ~ 1.86%

exact figures from declared yesterday

ITALY (115,527 / 60,391,837) * 100= 1.913%
UK (127,161 / 68,166,088) * 100 = 1.86%


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## SwissJetPilot

Post deleted by user.


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## SwissJetPilot

Post deleted by user.


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## John-H

SwissJetPilot said:


> From the US National Library of Medicine National Institutes of Health, here's Interesting piece of research on the effectiveness of Facemasks -


I think the remarkable thing about that is it's a false hypothesis. It's not an accepted peer reviewed view but an opinion piece that has been debunked. See here:

https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2 ... evidence-/

Even as an engineer having done some rudimentary investigation into masks I know the FFP3 respirators that I use filter most of the virus particles going by their size. Font line medical staff use them. The effectiveness reduces for lower standards and less training in their use. A "bit of cloth" is only useful to stop your cough spittle reaching someone else. Current view is that the major spread is airborne aerosol making ventilation and/or high grade filtration more important. The WHO increased its recommendation to triple layer in an effort to improve the "bit of cloth" effectiveness for the public. I hardly think masks will have as "devastating" an effect as corona virus. Well worth the risk.


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## SwissJetPilot

Post deleted by user.


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## John-H

I think better safe than sorry is the watchword - why not?


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## StuartDB

I have had 2 throat infections caused by lazy mask personal health. But saying that I also managed to be bitten by a spider on the back of my neck, and 3 other times on its way down my back, boxer shorts and out my trouser leg. 

My point is masks and no masks are just as dangerous and both unrelated to cov id.

I'm not being funny but, when I was infected by anti-biotic resistant pseudomonus in hospital I did a lot of reading about infections, cells and what-not. 
My point is the Indian Cov-id variant is apparently pretty weak - so why not allow this infection to sweep through and essentially 'fill up the cells' so secondary / additionally 'South African' variants won't be able to infect.. or are we suggesting they'll just all pile on.


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## SwissJetPilot

Post deleted by user.


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## StuartDB

Something I noticed last night... they had the world famous anti European outspoken and some times sounding a little pro Trump virilogist naked scientist Dr Chris Smith on Radio 5 Live and I realised how boring the same discussions are about coronavirus. The part of the show I listened to was about friends, parents, siblings etc not taking up the vaccine and every caller said the same thing, and the stand-in presenter and Chris Smith told them to "keep pressuring them', and maybe they will be forced to be vaccinated to go on holiday at some point.

I don't understand why we are not allowing the Indian Variant to spread as it is supposed to be less fatal.

One interesting thing which was discussed was about genealogy of people who are actively more likely to die versus more likely to survive. The presenter incorrectly said that it is social groups and not race as everyone is essentially the same, so some races might live closer and work in the same places. Whereas Chris said that obesity is the biggest difference and UK is 4th most obese country in the world. But... he also said blood type O have the smallest chance of becoming ill.. and difference races do have different genes. The conversation was that without an active vaccination process, maybe in 20,30,50? generations all the people with the more susceptible genes could be wiped out. He also pointed out that after the black death the west has some natural immunity to something else (can't remember) due to the surviving gene pool, and similarly due to the flu pandemic in 1918, Western Europe are less likely to catch HIV


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## John-H

Regarding the Indian variant - the worry is not it being more or less deadly, the worry is that our vaccines might not be effective against it and if it spreads more people will die - so it could be more deadly as a result of the spread and lack of protection - so that's why they are jumping on it and trying to stop it spreading.


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## StuartDB

Yeah maybe.. or the Indian Variant immunity will be better than our vaccine.. and if less deadly (0.1% ?) Probably more.

I think the cases v death is still about 3% which does feel like a lot.


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## John-H

India are having a bad time at the moment because of it but they only have 1% of a huge population vaccinated. Immunity from vaccination is usually higher than that gained from infection. Quite a few people have been infected twice and worse the second time round. The last thing we would want is a virus variant that our vaccines are ineffective against even if we would gain a new branch of immunity because of the death toll that would accompany it if we let it "rip through". That's the same argument for "herd immunity" via infection that the government were warned could cause 500k deaths. I don't think that's a good place to go back to.


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## StuartDB

At some point we might need to just 'suck it up' and get some media distraction for a few weeks.. ESL DomC AZ hooha

Maybe some IRA snaffoo ?

Shine a torch, left, right and centre . Whilst bad stuff happens top and bottom


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## StuartDB

Things have really kicked off in India, its weird a country with 1.4 billion people managed to keep it under control for a year.

Over 3 million new registered infections in the last 10 days. Hospitals picking and choosing people for treatment, as no more air. And those illnesses are from people infected when the infection rates was 160k a day... now it is 330,000


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## John-H

Tragic.


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## StuartDB

Let's face it... UK discarded James Dyson who followed the exact specifications for the full intubation based ICU ventilators and instead adopted the 10 quid 'mixer tap' for assisted breathing CPAP solutions, for conscious patients.

The have a 1% fatality rate currently in India, if that gets to the world wide 3% average that's 10k a day.. in 2 weeks time

That's just inconceivable..

The sadest thing is they were desperate to use AZ and it was delayed because of the EU posturing and lying saying it didn't work or killed more that cured... and now they have a variant which is resistant to AZ.

The Internet allows me to blame the EU.. but no MP will blame EU for that. India may find themselves the first country with 1m deaths.

In other news Italy are 6k deaths behind UK. They are miles past us in deaths percentage now.


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## John-H

Stuart please stop trying to blame the EU when it's got nothing to do with them. India are the worlds biggest vaccine manufacturer and were manufacturing Astrazeneca vaccine and exporting it to the UK. Why aren't you blaming the UK for buying it? India suspended deliveries to the UK because the situation was getting worse.

As for James Dyson he was never going to make a ventilator and neither was JCB or F1. There's no way they could have got them designed tested and approved for use in time. Ventilators are complex pieces of medical equipment that require rigorous safety tests before they would have allowed them anywhere near a patient.

Dyson never produced anything - not one ventilator - it was at best an idiot idea and at worst a publicity stunt and a potential gravy train contract for party donors and Brexit supporters who had the Prime Ministers number under a misplaced notion by Johnson that they could help his boosterism publicity when in actual fact it just diverted money and effort from where it should have gone and lives were lost as a result of it.

The situation was that whilst Dyson was being heralded as a saviour we had genuine ventilator manufacturers in this country with ventilators already approved and waiting in stock, on the shelves ready to be sold to the NHS with their offers of supply being ignored by the government because the publicity played out better with Dyson. So those ventilators ended up being exported to other countries whilst the Prime Minister was rar-rarring with his mates.

We also had dubious and inexperienced companies set up by the mates or family connected members of government ministers and MPs prioritised on a VIP fast lane to supply ventilators and PPE so they could make a profit at the tax payers expense and genuine suppliers were being bypassed and ignored. Snouts in the trough and again lives were put at risk.

Did you know the NHS were being supplied Chinese imported ventilators through these connections at £50k each - ventilators now sat in hospitals with a "do not use faulty" label on them - at the same time as the UK produced high quality ventilators costing £15k were being exported?

It's the same story with PPE - experienced UK NHS suppliers being ignored in favour of being supplied at vastly inflated prices through the sleaze train puffing out of Tory central.

Don't believe me? Check these out:











https://www.arco.co.uk/103/content/do...


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## StuartDB

James Dyson isn't Chinese...

They made 2000 ventilators to be told the NHS only want the test ones.

In January India were asking why AZ had not been approved yet, as they had a massive factory ready.

Here's EU also asking India for 10m AZ doses for a vaccine they had not approved.. let's not pretend the UK are the baddies here.










Years ago whilst discussing partition on a public forum, the Indian fellows said that India is such a powerful country but the country is always too helpful to others before themselves, it's ingrained in their leaders to be submissive, rather than selfish - they were complaining that the government were 'too nice' and thought about others instead of themselves.

I'm sorry John, but I will believe James Dyson and the BBC ...


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## StuartDB

This is sad though.. the biggest serum manufacturer in the whole world was trusted in making vaccines for 190 countries.. but because they didn't manage to keep covid19 controlled with lockdown and other measures, the Indian Government said they would not distribute to the promised contracts.

That's essentially like you paying your wages into a bank, but the bank saying they are short of cash, so will keep it...  (I know, that's what happened already  )


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## StuartDB

Oh my.... poor India Residents..

Their government has 'gifted 60 million vaccines, to try and influence other countries' so John is correct, they have been exporting doses, but for free for trade deals and what not...

Meanwhile another 356,000 positive tests today.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/202 ... -its-limit

In my opinion that is indefensible, but I will wait for some spin ;(


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## John-H

Regarding Dyson you don't seem to understand Stuart. It never got approval for use.

Dyson ventilators didn't reach the NHS because they were never approved for use before he was told to stand down.

Everyone in the industry knew this would be the case from the start. It was a complete waste of time and meanwhile, as I said, genuine existing manufacturers were being bypassed as the lady explains here:






Of the government's ventilator challenge scheme:

_
"The only group to have secured regulatory approval and supplied ventilators to the NHS in significant numbers is Ventilator Challenge UK, a consortium of manufacturers that *focused on scaling up production of proven devices*, rather than building new ones."_

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.thegua ... t-covid-19

That's because the existing design was already approved. Dyson's was never approved before he was told to stand down.


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## StuartDB

Yeah to be fair, the government should have just asked for money instead of getting people to waste time and money in something so specific and difficult to really produce. When my wife was in Papworth ICU, she was connected to about 4 or 5 machines in addition to the ventilator, all taking to each other. Everything from timed medication, food, right heart pressures, 3 or 4 drains.

I think the cpap valve was used but to be fair it's only using existing cpap machine with an o2 concentrator.


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## John-H

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... claim.html

Rather incredible that this should come from a Tory supporting newspaper but I suppose there comes a point when the news exceeds political leanings.

BBC political editor Laura Kuenssberg has just confirmed on World at One that her sources confirm that this was indeed said during heated exchanges in the autumn where accusations centre about delay and dither which led to unnecessary deaths.


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## StuartDB

Laura got banned from attending the daily updates, for just asking the same accusing question three different ways. So not really a tory.

I would be more inclined to link the acquisition of hundreds of thousands of body bags in October 2019 for a knowledge of impending Covid-19, when everyone thought they were for no-deal Brexit.


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## John-H

Risk of catching Covid indoors 'just as bad at 60ft apart as 6ft' new study claims

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/us-news/r ... t-23981465

_"even wearing masks in some types of indoor settings won't fully protect the wearer from infected people more than 6ft away - comparing the way an airborne virus travels to second-hand smoke."
_
I did mention that cigarette smoke particles at 200nm size speading in a room are a good indication of where the 100nm size virus particles in breath go too. And that they can travel through a "bit of cloth" and FFP3 would be required to stop the majority of particles.

_"The fact that face mask directives have been more effective than either lockdowns or social distancing in controlling the spread of Covid-19 is consistent with indoor airborne transmission as the primary driver of the global pandemic..."_


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## StuartDB

I think the 'people in charge' should be investing more time and money in checking someone's immunity instead of a generic lateral flow test to see if someone has it.. a bit like a INR machine or glucose machine.

Just because we have a 30 min home test doesn't mean they should stop there. China would be able to create personal machines at a low cost, use a lancet for a drop of blood, then cook it on a test strip and the machine will upload the result. We are probably a few years away, but remember Elon Musk got interested in space travel a few years ago and has now overtaken NASA.

Also a guest in talk sport reckoned the lateral flow test actually returns the result in a couple of minutes as you see 1 line virtually straight away. But that is the control line and is nothing to do with the actual result.


----------



## StuartDB

John-H said:


> Risk of catching Covid indoors 'just as bad at 60ft apart as 6ft' new study claims
> 
> https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/us-news/r ... t-23981465
> 
> _"even wearing masks in some types of indoor settings won't fully protect the wearer from infected people more than 6ft away - comparing the way an airborne virus travels to second-hand smoke."
> _
> I did mention that cigarette smoke particles at 200nm size speading in a room are a good indication of where the 100nm size virus particles in breath go too. And that they can travel through a "bit of cloth" and FFP3 would be required to stop the majority of particles.
> 
> _"The fact that face mask directives have been more effective than either lockdowns or social distancing in controlling the spread of Covid-19 is consistent with indoor airborne transmission as the primary driver of the global pandemic..."_


You only need to see someone vaping and able to smell they are vaping black-current 15ft behind them outside... it might be that vaping holds the droplets suspended in the mist...


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## John-H

Here are some numbers for you:

0.1 mm (100 µm) human hair thick
0.04 mm (40 µm) human hair thin
0.04 mm (40 µm) eye resolution
0.01 mm (10 µm) largest exhaled water vapour droplet
0.00001 mm (10 nm) smallest exhaled water vapour droplet
0.0001 mm (100 nm) Corona virus (60 - 140 nm Corona virus SARS-Co-V2)

200 nm Cigarette smoke (100 nm to 1 µm, 200 nm - 250 nm peak)
Diesel smoke 10 nm
Petrol smoke 50 nm - 200 nm

1,000 virus particles in width of human hair
100 virus particles across width of water vapour droplet (10 µm) or could contain ~666,000 virus particles.

If you can smell or blow smoke through your cloth mask it won't stop the water vapour droplets carrying the virus. The best medical grade respirators FFP3 ( EN 149) provide 99% filtration of 0.3 µm (300 nm) and above size particles - so even they won't stop 200 - 100 nm water vapour droplets carrying the virus completely.

The average person exhales:
15-18 ml/hour water vapour at 60 bpm heart rate.
60-70 ml/hour water vapour at 140 bpm heart rate.

Normally you don't see water vapour but you know how quickly your breath streams up your car windows on a cold day.

How many virus particles you need to become infected, the infectious dose, isn't precisely known but is believed to be very small.


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## StuartDB

I probably already mentored this, but when Shrewsbury were supposed to play Spurs in FA Cup, Spurs medical team tested all the Shrewsbury players, and Shrewsbury Team Manager was told they couldn't play because they were over the allowed limit of covid-19


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## StuartDB

oh my.... some reports are the cases and death tolls are 10-20 times the reported by India.

https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavir ... 43077ee6fb


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## John-H

Following its win in the High Court The Good Law Project has now revealed the names of four more companies awarded contracts through the VIP lane: Clandeboye Agencies, P14 Medical, Luxe Lifestyle and Meller Designs.

• P14 Medical, run by a Tory councillor and donor, was awarded £276m in PPE contracts.

• Meller Designs, run by David Meller a large Tory donor and trustee of the rightwing lobby group Policy Exchange, was given more than £160m in PPE contracts.

• Luxe Lifestyle was awarded a £26m contract despite appearing to be insolvent and without any employees.

• Clandeboye Agencies whose registered trade on Companies House is "wholesale of sugar, chocolate and sugar confectionery" was awarded £108m in PPE contracts.

These four are in addition to Ayanda, which enjoyed a £252m deal negotiated by Liz Truss's adviser Andrew Mills. And Pestfix which won approximately £350m in contracts despite being described by Government as a company "which specialises in pest control products, that was dormant in 2018". There remain a further 41 firms yet to be revealed.

Good Law Project can also reveal that of the nine contracts the subject of the judicial review - one with Ayanda, two with Clandeboye and six with Pestfix - five or possibly six of them have failed in the sense that some or all of the PPE provided under them has proved unfit for its intended purpose. Hundreds and hundreds of millions of pounds - spent with these three suppliers alone - have been wasted. It is inconceivable that this is the only waste.

The High Court said the Government should carry out additional searches for:

(1) texts and WhatsApp messages for some selected civil servants; and

(2) instructions, directions and decisions by Ministers in respect of the establishment, selection and criteria of the VIP lane.

It also said that the Government should supply details of the advice given by Emily Lawson in relation to FFP2 facemasks.

The Government was ordered to pay the costs of the application.

Sort of puts Major Sleaze's £840 a roll gold wallpaper and £10,000 sofa as part of his £58,000 Downing Street flat makeover into perspective. Or was that all part of the sweetener deal to direct the awarding of contracts. Is that why he won't come clean?


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## StuartDB

Political opinions should not taint this thread about coronavirus.. crying about money desperately trying to save the UK citizens. 
We are now better than both France and Italy regarding deaths percent per population.

I notice the Australian Cricket Players are leaving the India Cricket IPL and flying home - India, stated all players would be vaccinated to protect them - so they can continue playing.. $$$$$$$$$$ versus ♡♡♡♡♡♡♡

Additionally, the rich residents of India are flying out too.. it reminds me of Pompeii...


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## John-H

The reporting of massive corruption and cronyism by the government is not a political opinion. It's a covid related fact. They've been caught out and exposed and quite rightly reported.

This is public money wasted and lining the pockets of Tory doners.

This is money that should have been spent with genuine UK suppliers of PPE who had stock and could have supplied but instead the government, through their VIP lane, diverted hundreds of millions of tax payers public money to inappropriate and inexperienced companies, often just recently set up for the purpose of this fraud - whereby hugely inflated prices were paid to the dodgy company and they in turn placed orders for poor quality cheap, non compliant and often out of date PPE and pass that on to our NHS and pocket the difference.

Don't you remember hearing the reports of PPE being rejected or discovery that it has been re-labelled with a later date over the top of the expired use by date? This was putting our front line NHS doctors and nurses at risk.

And look at who's been ending up with the hundreds of millions of public money - the likes of Tory councillor, mates of ministers, or right wing think tank run by Tory supporter and party donor David Meller: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... m-ppe-deal

Sleaze on a grand scale adding up to billions that put lives at risk.

Here's a short video about it:


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## StuartDB

I am loving the UK capitalism profiteering on the fear of death from a disease that kills 3% of the population and 99% of that 3% were already poorly / vulnerable to respiratory disease.

£15 for a couple of weeks protection of Coronavirus killing 99.9% of COVID-19 - so say I inhale 200,000 viruses - I only get impacted by 200 COVIDs (and it takes what 30 to start a colony? or it kills 99.9% of variants of coronaviruses?

https://lloydspharmacy.com/pages/virale ... asal-spray

there's a scientific paper just here --

View attachment SSRN-id3830085.pdf


Bagup   - guys keep Britain moving, (BTW, if anyone wants some VIRALIZE VIRALESE or V1R4LEEES - it is much cheaper from China  

What if you actually breath through your mouth? Could the anti-viral barrier be added to air conditioners etc?


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## John-H

Covid-19 is a vascular disease not a respiratory one study finds and helps explain the issue of blood clotting:

https://www.euronews.com/2021/05/06/cov ... says-study


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## StuartDB

its interesting that they are stating that normal treatment for thrombosis events are ineffectual, I would like to see some details regarding people who are already on Warfarin or Rivaroxaban have less or more chance or avoiding this.

When my wife had her pulmonary endarterectomy, she didn't "wake up" for 10 days and that was due to a "reperfusion injury" in her lungs, which is an inflammatory response to being overloaded with oxygenated blood after being starved for a long period, there is no cure or medication for that, only time on a ventilator. even if you are "awake" - whilst on a ventilator _which is something I never expected to see in my life, as the natural response is to pull at 2 wide inch pipe out of your face_..


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## Mabel Becker

Well, understanding the severeness of this virus is really hard because scientists could not the know-how it damages our lungs therefore there is not an effective covid-19 vaccine in the country. But the scientists are working hard to get knowledge of this virus. Therefore till then, we have to wear Leaf UV Mask to stay away from covid-19, I personally use this mask and found it really helpful for covid prevention.


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## CA57WAY

:lol:


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## John-H

The government dashboard data for infections shows an infection rate fall stalled at a plateau for the last five weeks equal to the rate in early September last year. We also have the B.1.617.2 Indian variant here in clusters now which are spreading rapidly with some areas reporting a doubling or trebling within a week. It's not known for sure whether the B.1.617.2 variant is more transmissible than our dominant B.1.1.7 Kent variant but there are reports of whole households here being infected which wasn't seen previously which suggests it's more transmissible and there are reports of whole teams of vaccinated healthcare workers in India testing positive showing the present vaccines are less effective - although symptoms are not as severe. 18 year olds are being invited to receive the vaccine early in the cluster areas.

There are calls for the government to delay the further partial lifting of restrictions due on the 17th May and 21st June in order to allow time to assess the development. SAGE are holding an urgent meeting today.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... ent-strain

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57102392

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/ ... newsletter


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## John-H

The scientific group SPIM have stated that the Indian variant is >50% more transmissible than the Kent variant and if this continues to be the case across wider transmission there will be a significant increase in infection and there are too few fully vaccinatedand adults to prevent a significant strain on the NHS without further lockdown measures.

SAGE say that if the Indian variant is 40% to 50% more transmissible then the unlocking on Monday WILL lead to hospitalisations larger than previous peaks.

Given what they say, the government is now being accused of being irresponsible in going ahead with lockdown relaxation on Monday.


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## StuartDB

I think they suggested 1150 people have tested positive for the Indian Variant. No doubt it has increased.

There will be a suge especially up north and London, as Police have been too scared to break up the premier league protests. My daughter lives in Bidford on Avon and her partner has been invited for vaccine and he's only 31. So it sounds like they are speeding things up in that area.

Italy are sadly still catching and likely to overtake UK in actual death count, they are already well past UK on deaths per capita.

The UK have completed more than 169m tests.. I know it's more as we have done 9 tests at home and I only uploaded the results one the first 3 negative tests. That's the highest 'per capita' for any country with more than 10m population, we have 2.5m tests per 1m people.


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## John-H

The problem with accelerating second dose and inviting younger age groups for vaccination is that it takes time. Twelve weeks reduced to eight is good but the second dose will take a couple of weeks to work and first dose will be eight weeks plus two weeks for second dose. Meanwhile the new strain with an R0 of 7.8 is trebling every week and even with ~90% protection of hospitalisation to those fully vaccinated 10% will be hospitalised, and vaccines (two doses) only reduce transmission by 50%.


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## StuartDB

I would be more worried about the current increase of "Black Fungus" for COVID Survivors in India.

https://zeenews.india.com/india/what-is ... 60987.html

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/scie ... atientswhy

they also have that black gloop which some animals have evolved to live in, from the landfill.

https://www.latimes.com/world/la-xpm-20 ... story.html


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## John-H

That's not contagious.


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## StuartDB

The black fungus? or the landfill who employee 9 year old kids? What an appalling country India is... one of the richest counties but only if you are rich...

Imagine if the UK started shoving kids back up chimneys again..


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## John-H

I meant the fungus. It's in the environment and gains a hold through reduced immunity.

India is a country of contrasts. A friend of mine visited many years ago and took the most amazing black and white photographs of wizened faced bearded men sat on street corners - I'm sure for the tourists. There was one guru with a wizened arm that was completely atrophied - he'd held it upright continuously for years to prove the strength of his devout beliefs and it became completely stuck like that.

She was shocked seeing a funeral pyre with bits of body falling out and being thrown back into the flames. There's been a lot of that lately.


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## StuartDB

"Wizened" is a word almost never used, but now I am going to notice it everywhere.. 

I see... so the black mold illness is essentially an allergy. I wonder if it is more common in polluted areas, maybe the smog is causing humidity.. I obviously haven't been to India but i always envisaged India being a dry heat, making mold unusual?


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## John-H

It's not an allergy. I'm not sure if it's the same mould that gets in your bathroom taps and shower curtains but it's common in the environment. Essentially it's a fungal infection that can infect the sinuses where it's damp of course and it can get to the base of the brain which is then serous. Treatment involves surgery to clean the passageways. It's been occurring in people who have had their immune system suppressed during COVID treatment with use of steroids for example. Healthy people with good immune systems will shrug it off but they breath in the spores all the time because it's in the environment.


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## StuartDB

It's only in India though isn't it. Yeah, it's supposedly where your body cannot handle the spores..










Our house has always had mould somewhere, I'm not going to spread any rumours here.


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## John-H

There's a BBC article about it here: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-57027829.amp


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## John-H

When will the government learn that scientific advice is not like political advice to be bargained and compromised?

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/ ... e-24122860

It's worth repeating that the scientific group SPIM have stated that the Indian variant is >50% more transmissible than the Kent variant and if this continues to be the case across wider transmission there will be a significant increase in infection and there are too few fully vaccinatedand adults to prevent a significant strain on the NHS without further lockdown measures.

SAGE say _if_ the Indian variant is 40% to 50% more transmissible then the unlocking today WILL lead to hospitalisations larger than previous peaks. Given what they say, the government is now being accused of being irresponsible in going ahead with lockdown relaxation.

You only have to look at India to see the difference between the B.1.1.7 (Kent variant) and B.1.617.2 (Indian variant) dominance effect transition.

The difference between India and UK is mainly vaccination coverage but vaccination only halves transmission. Given that the B.1.617.2 variant has an R0 = ~8, removing all social distancing restrictions would leave us with an R = 4 rate if everyone had two vaccine doses. We'd be 90% protected from serious disease but it would still be spreading exponentially and 10% would be in serious trouble. Vaccines are not perfect.

But of course most don't have two jabs so it will be worse.

86 local authorities have now reported the B.1.617.2 strain responsible for new infections.

Would you visit a pub indoors and hug people now?


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## StuartDB

At some point the general public are going to have to start to shoulder some responsibilities for themselves, it's not that hard to be careful and cautious. Does everyone really have to be told how to behave by Boris Johnson?

Although, after the appalling scenes of Glasgow Rangers Fans at the weekend.. including reports from A&E where someone came in with only half a hand after a firework went off before he/she/they threw it at the police. Then the videos of the players and staff being not much better, regarding sectarian chanting... I'm not sure the public are ready to be careful by themselves.

What's annoying me a bit, is anti "end of lockdown" scared little bunnies, keep saying "we have come so far, let's not throw it all away for the sake of a couple of weeks more" that's going to be as vomit inducing as "lessons will be learned" after the social workers failed baby p, grenfell tower and the Iraq War  

If the R0 of the Indian virus was really R0 = 8 then within 8 weeks there would be 16.7m people infected. And in 11 weeks the entire world, would be infected. (Assuming a transmissible period of 1 week, obviously if it is only 5 days it'll be much sooner...)


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## John-H

The first duty of government is to protect its citizens - not to wash its hands and blame the public for the consequences. We should also have prevented the spread from India to the UK rather than delay the red list inclusion for the sake of a trade deal.

I'd say in the light of the new variant which is said to become the dominant strain within days, we should be extending the caution - not relaxing regardless. The scientists are not mixing indoors because they know better - unlike the politicians who are gambling again - with our health.

Your calculations are not realistic by the way Stuart. You are presuming the generation period _D_ is seven days when it's probably nearer four. For _n_ periods of four days each the daily new infections will be R^_n_ in so many _D_ periods but this presumes behavior doesn't change which it obviously would if infections and hospitalisations took off. We'd lock down and reduce R below one.

You have two fractions, number of contacts _p_ and the riskiness of each contact _q_ and to keep out of exponential growth you need to satisfy:

(1−_p_) × (1−_q_) ≤ 1/R

And that represents things like lockdown mingling restrictions and wearing masks, ventilation, vaccines etc.

It's the social distancing measures that stop a high R0 rate having its natural effect. Vaccines help to but only by 50% (0.5) - you multiply the factors together. That's why it's more important to keep up precautions for a more contagious strain with high R0 and because vaccines are also not 100% effective at stopping serious disease and hospitalisations and we have only 30% of the population vaccinated, why we should be delaying relaxing lockdown measures.


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## StuartDB

They are suggesting the vaccines are higher protection level. 
The government are not washing their hands, the India strain might actually be a blessing in disguise as it will create a natural immunity quicker as more transmissible but is less virulent. There'll always be another strain and more dangers.. we were saying just a couple more weeks since June last year.

What is clear(ish) is most of the areas where uptake of the vaccine is low and misbehaviour / lack of citizen governance is obvious, the infection rates are the highest. Take Andy Burnham the self appointed Labour Leader in waiting, he demands Government action and more commitment for vaccines in the North, whilst also turning a blind eye / sympathising with the anti lockdown protests and even worse the soccer fans protests.

It's a bit annoying Bedford is on that hot spot, as I have to go to hospital every six weeks for venesection. When I spoke to the nurses there a couple of weeks ago, they have stopped doing vaccines now.. they are done in local community centres, churches, mosques, GP's etc but they said all those places want to go back to normal now, so they have no idea who will be carrying out yearly boosters and finish off the vaccines.


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## StuartDB

It's so terribly sad that an NHS nurse who helped treat the Prime Minister Boris Johnson has resigned because she suggests that NHS staff who help treat middle class / VIP UK citizens deserve more money and extra pay...? !

What on earth led her to distinguish normal UK working class from VIPs , this is shameful behaviour essentially suggesting that Nurses deserve more pay because some of the people they treat are more valuable than other people, the polar opposite of what socialism stands for. And how terribly selfish of this woman to state Nurses are now important than Police officers (who run towards danger), Fire service officers (who run towards danger) than Nurses.

She signed an NDA so I'm not sure where she's going to sell her story, but if all Nurses believe different patients mean they deserve more money compared to taxi drivers, builders etc are a terrible vision, and I'm personally glad she's out of the NHS - she's definitely broken the hipocratic-oath


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## John-H

What compete distorted made up tosh. Tell me you didn't make up that clap trap yourself and are unfortunately repeating something you've read without checking your facts Stuart :roll:

Here are the facts: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57162428.amp

And what you said earlier about the new Indian variant being a blessing in disguise is just plain bizarre. I despair.


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## StuartDB

They just interviewed a 6th form school child from Bedford, who said essentially the entire school year is infected, but they are all asymptomatic... as in none of them have any symptoms what-so-ever.

How many nurses have you heard of (apart from Florence Nightingale, Who was actually discredited just recently for being "domineering, bossy, bloody-minded and self-promoting" ) Who is a spokesperson, complaining that they only received 1% so left their job (self-made martyr)? What a coincidence... the nurse Boris Johnson personally thanked for her commitment in helping to keep him safe, happens to be the one whining about wages.. he could have gone private.. but demonstrated his confidence in the free service, kindly funded by the English tax payers, paying their way, to keep us all safe in pandemics, wars, floods, road traffic accidents and the likes.

Scotland apparently pay for their own NHS, but they also control their own income tax too. So Nicola Sturgeon found some ridiculous £800-£1k fixed for high earners - minimum wagers) or 2%-5.4% (middle high to middle low earners) pay rise in Scotland for NHS staff...

Although - Jimmy in Glasgow earning 50k a year will pay £1670 a year more in income tax than Doris in Dorset earning 50k a year... and also I don't think 'basic rate' tax payers can take their house-husband's / or other stay-at-home spouse's tax allowance in Scotland.

Look... nurses knew the deal when they trained and got the job.. no-one likes famous rich people earning millions a year, but a nurse will never earn millions, even if the entire country is thankful for their commitment. We can't all be millionaires... if there's one thing I have learnt in all my years... no-one is irreplaceable so stepping down from your job... just makes a space for someone else to take your job...

BTW If your point was related to signing an NDA - that was in the paper, as a doctor who refused to sign one was not allowed to treat Boris Johnson.. if you believe red tops.
But.... it actually appears to be a Labour Official (Andi Fox, who chairs Labour's powerful ruling body) accidentally (or not) spreading a conspiracy theory, which originated as satire on a Facebook Group.. you really cannot trust those Labour officials can you..   how embarrassing for the Labour Party (again) i am a sucker for believing 'the opposition'

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 64246.html


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## John-H

I could barely follow any of that again but I think it boils down to -

Stuart says, _let them eat claps._

Next time you visit a hospital you'll have to tell tell the staff what you've been saying here - but then you only post here to wind people up I know.

As for your wishful thinking about the B.1.617.2 strain - regarding one of the 86 local authority areas reporting the infection, Bolton, which recorded 733 new cases in the seven days to 11 May, Matt Hancock has said 18 people in the town have required hospital treatment after being infected by the disease, five of whom have had a jab, including one who has been given both doses of the inoculation.

A _"blessing in disguise"_? I don't think so and Johnson let it into the country because of a potential trade deal. You may like everything he's responsible for but that really is going too far.


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## StuartDB

The whole country is struggling lots of people lost their jobs, lively hood, future and family members - I found the weekly clapping a little dis-respectful in all honesty, especially after few weeks - and more so as the numbers were dwindling down leading to the cease.

I am not making up stories to "wind people up" just debating and playing devils advocate, but if there were no subjects debate worthy - I wouldn't be on an off-topic box shouting out my complaints that's what twitter and Instagram is for. dont take what I said in the "what's happened to this forum" thread too much to heart - it felt like someone had experienced a life changing event and was looking for a place which used to give them comfort 10 years ago, and struggled to discover it wasn't they same (we have all been there and done that)

I know Jeremy Vine is not a real barometer but the Nurses that called in this morning said she shouldn't have said and done what she did, Boris Johnson invited her to Number 10 to give her a voice and she used it to attack the Prime Minister - she is not really going to leave though is she, as she has "offered her resignation" - and will be convinced to stay (probably through an individual fast tracked promotion)

The Nurses on the phone ranging from 30 years to a 70 year old, said they only want respect from their patients.

Let's face it - the 1% pay increase is tiny (but more than police and fire service) - and Nurses still have yearly career grade and sub grade jumps when they meet their appraisal goals (like council workers throughout the UK) and nurses have ad-hoc jumps after attending a variety of training courses eg an extra £500+ if they learn to take blood. Other services do that too, I have a dog walking occasional pass-by chat with a local policeman and he got an extra bit of cash for passing an exam to be a "basic motorbike escort" (even though he doesn't usually ride for his job) I think he could have a further course and exam so he can be a VIP motorbike escort. (Interesting fact the police use BMW RT1250s - I think so, and are not allowed to go more than 126mph even though they are rated for 145mph)

my point about Scotland is 
1. they are giving with one hand (4%)
and 
2. taking it back with the other hand (extra income tax)

Incidentally I think we should all be charged an extra 1% income tax but the 1% has an optional designation (hopefully corruption free) so if I want tax year 2021-2022 I want option 6 (Adult Metal Health) the 1% would go there... then next year I might want it to go to the NHS etc.. a bit like a limited enforced charity donation. Probably could be salary sacrifice too.


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## John-H

StuartDB said:


> The whole country is struggling lots of people lost their jobs, lively hood, future and family members - I found the weekly clapping a little dis-respectful in all honesty, especially after few weeks - and more so as the numbers were dwindling down leading to the cease.


I know what you mean. I first felt very enthusiastic to join in a public thank-you for all the front line workers exposing their own personal safety to help save the lives of others - above and beyond the call of duty in the circumstances in my book. As the weeks went by though I got the distinct impression from government that they had hijacked the whole thing in a political virtue signalling exercise for their own ends and when there were calls for the staff to be given a pay reward to recognise their sacrifice where many had died in their efforts and the government said no, the clapping became a substitute for a genuine reward and I didn't want to join in what then seemed to be as you say - disrespectful.



StuartDB said:


> Let's face it - the 1% pay increase is tiny


For them in real terms its a pay cut. Not right in the circumstances.



StuartDB said:


> Incidentally I think we should all be charged an extra 1% income tax.


I think that's likely to happen. We've built ourselves a pile of debt and at the same time we've reduced our GDP for political reasons and therefore reduced the government income. How are they both going to pay for public services and repay the debt? That's going to fall on our public shoulders.


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## StuartDB

Forgetting about the enforced cost of being employed, there seems to be little enthusiasm from the general public in actually picking something they want their 1% going to. I cannot be the only person thinking this... I know the usual argument is 'just give it to charity if you feel that strongly about it'!!! I would rather it was a countrywide effort, and it shouldn't be classed as charity even if it essentially is... if the whole country works at this it'll be uplifting transparent statistics.. currently, the lowly 'tax victim' just gets a bit a paper showing "they" took a shed load of cash. If I could go onto a page showing 'the 10 selectable taxation funds' in a leader board and the amazing extra money and examples of the good work they can do. It would be a bit like watching a share fund or 'Christmas-Club' 

It would be much better than a council tax bill .. where the coppers has 217.65 > £20.45 (11.34%) <- not real numbers... and that cost is probably costs related to the traveler site and drones and two helicopters


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## StuartDB

It's awful.... but it is hard not to laugh and jeer at the lying scum.... everyone pointing fingers at the English Parliament whilst (we all knew really, didn't we..!) Scotland #SNP have been manipulating the care home cov id deaths the entire time...


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## John-H

Looks like we are going up again :?


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## StuartDB

Eventually, the world will have a manageable population, humans have no natural predators, so mother-nature has stepped in every 100 years or so with Terrestrial or Extra-Terrestrial disease. Once the population is naturally supported then diseases will disappear.

Watch Ancient Aliens and educate yourself with strange new viruses which survived the vacuum of space and infected earth, through meteorites. I'm not saying covid is from outer-space.

I remember when the world's population rocked over to 5 billion, I was about 10 at junior school. Its now about 8 billion... its crazy though as UK are not making more people than are dying currently.

I do expect more infections but hopefully we'll reduce our mortality % to 0.01 which you are probably more likely to die in a plane crash than of corona virus, and if course each infection adds to our herd, of healthy volunteers. It'll be interesting to see if the kids born in the last year or so will be more immune or less immune to covid(s) there's some disagreement in science regarding peanut allergy, that if you eat too many peanuts whilst pregnant it makes your baby have an allergy versus doesn't...?


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## John-H

As I pointed to yesterday and has been admitted in the Downing Street press conference just underway today infections are rising. 3/4 of infections are now the B.1.617.2 variant which is now the dominant strain.


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## StuartDB

Yeah 75% is what they said.. they also said if people caught a Rhino-Virus they will have a natural immunity to corona virus as the exposed cells are already occupied / infected.
It's a bit annoying that phage treatment is apparently new and a breakthrough, I was asking Addenbrookes infectious diseases if they could do it, whilst infected with Hospital Infection and Antibiotic-Resistant Pseudomonas Aeruginosa Osteomyelitis, instead of just being told "Well Gentamicine is no longer effective!" How do you know? I would ask... ? The bacterial infection in your Gentamicine dish has now started to thrive.. after hybinating for 3 weeks in a gel capsule.

They said they had never heard of it, as a treatment.. although nature has used phage consistently... how do you stop a 'fancy man' getting you pregnant whilst your soldier husband is away? Get pregnant first... 

Hopefully, our vaccines will keep the #IndiaVariant at bay... I'm sure my second vaccine next week, but as stated earlier need to go to Bedford regularly.. or I learn to blood-let 446g myself.


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## StuartDB

This is the number we care most about....

3500 new infections today....

Only 10 dead

If in 2-4 weeks we are lower than 35 dead then we are < 1% that was the recorded deaths in India.










Look at Italy - nearly 126k :| for only 60m residents

That's 0.21% of Italy residents have died from covid versus 0.18% of UK residents ?


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## StuartDB

What I don't really understand is why and how that India is drastically reducing their infections?

I would be interested to know if it is simply burning itself out... I don't believe the Indian Officials are controlling people via lockdown or vaccines etc to reduce new infections from 400k to 179k a day.


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## StuartDB

I didn't wear a face mask in Halfords today, it was quiet and I didn't even realise I wasn't wearing one until I spoke to a shop assistant. It is so embarrassing, I nearly went back in to apologise - no-one said anything to me about it though, which is quite sad really. Our local Tesco hands them out on the door if people have forgotten them. I expect if there was anyone else in the shop I would have noticed..

I could have killed a generation.


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## leopard

Had the Astra Zenica jab a week and a couple of days ago. I was in bed for the first two with all over body aches followed by the next few days of a sore throat developing into a cough with a runny nose. No fever though but still feeling like crap with a heavy chest and tickling cough.

They're on about a booster later this year. If it makes me feel anywhere near what I've experienced they can get stuffed, I might just chance it without..


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## John-H

I presume that's your first? Or if not what was the reaction to the first?


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## leopard

It's the second jab. The first was just a heavy arm and a couple of days of feeling off but this one is on another level completely. In fact I was so concerned that I went for a PCR test and have had two lateral flow tests - all negative which I suppose is a positive. Spoke with someone today and they reckon they're still suffering after four weeks from the second jab 

Oddly (or not) can't find anything about this online. Perhaps it's being kept under wraps as to not deter people from having it.


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## BW57

leopard said:


> It's the second jab. The first was just a heavy arm and a couple of days of feeling off but this one is on another level completely. In fact I was so concerned that I went for a PCR test and have had two lateral flow tests - all negative which I suppose is a positive. Spoke with someone today and they reckon they're still suffering after four weeks from the second jab
> 
> Oddly (or not) can't find anything about this online. Perhaps it's being kept under wraps as to not deter people from having it.


Had both my AZ vaccinations&#8230;&#8230;shivery for about 30 mins after the first, and no symptoms at all after the second. Guess I've just been fortunate (or you've been unfortunate!).


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## John-H

leopard said:


> It's the second jab. The first was just a heavy arm and a couple of days of feeling off but this one is on another level completely. In fact I was so concerned that I went for a PCR test and have had two lateral flow tests - all negative which I suppose is a positive. Spoke with someone today and they reckon they're still suffering after four weeks from the second jab
> 
> Oddly (or not) can't find anything about this online. Perhaps it's being kept under wraps as to not deter people from having it.


I've been told it's about 1 in 10 that have side effects of a mild sort from a sore arm to a headache or shivers for a day or so.

My first was totally uneventful to the point I wondered if I just had salt water.

Someone at work wondered if having had the flu jab prior might have something to do with the reaction but having asked I'm told there's no connection.

There's an emerging symptom of catching Covid having had the vaccine and that's sneezing. Ultimately that's what this might end up as when everyone's vaccinated - like having a cold.

Trouble is most people are not yet fully vaccinated, with one dose only giving 30% protection against B.1.617.2 and younger age groups not having had any, and we appear to be into a third wave now.

Some scientists are calling to wait a few more weeks before deciding to unlock and to wait until over 70% are fully vaccinated (like Israel) in order to stop the exponential rise.

That makes sense to me. I recon we need 87% protection from this variant which we might get to considering the addition of those having recovered with natural immunity as well as the vaccinated by then.


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## John-H

Matt Hancock and several newspapers trumpeted the "zero deaths" headline yesterday as proof the vaccines work and the end is in sight. Newspapers have told Boris Johnson not to listen to the scientists urging caution and to stick to the June 21st unlocking date. The government is sticking to its line that there is nothing in the data to suggest the date should be changed but they are keeping things under review.

I thought it would be useful to take a closer look at the data. Here's the graph of daily deaths (red) with the hospital admissions (blue) superimposed. Deaths lag hospital admissions by around four weeks or so and you can see the two green arrows matching numbers between now and the start of September last year just before infections and admissions took off. It appears hospital admissions are on the rise again and certainly not dropping to zero. It's not unreasonable to expect deaths to follow this trend in a few weeks. Today's death figure is 12.










The trend is more obvious looking at infections (blue) which leads hospital admissions. In this graph similar points are arrowed comparing today to early September last year with a similar number. The trend is increasing exponentially and the "R" rate has now risen above one.










"*A*" on the graph at the start of the first lockdown on 23rd March 2020 shows the result of infections that were doubling every two to three days prior, feeding into the death toll (red) weeks later. The point of lockdown stopped transmission but the numbers already infected (many of which were not recorded because test capacity was not fully developed) fed through to 30 to 40 thousand deaths. Had we locked down a week earlier that death toll could have been reduced by the same doubling factor every two to three days in that prior week, reducing the death toll by 20,000 - 30,000. That's a sobering point and highlights the importance of acting quickly when an exponential rise is in progress.

"*B*" on the graph shows the rise in infections which was allowed to happen despite SAGE spotting the rise in infections and advising a lockdown on 21/09/2020. That lockdown was resisted and did not occur until the start of November. "*C*" on the graph is the lagged rise in death toll due to the infection rise "*B*" adding another 30,000 deaths.

"*D*" on the graph was when the second lockdown ended with infections still very high and ineffective "Tiers" were introduced whereupon the infection rate rose rapidly. This was amplified by the new "Kent" variant (R0 = 5.2) but even if it hadn't been identified the infection rate rise at "*D*" should have triggered a full lock down prior to Christmas. This didn't happen until the start of January where the rise in infections from "*D*" fed through to "*E*" adding another 50,000 deaths cut short by the January lockdown which has brought the infection rate back down to summer levels.

The infection rate is exponentially rising again.

The difference between now and last year is the increase in vaccine coverage with 50% of adults fully vaccinated and 75% with a first dose. The other difference is the dominant B.1.617.2 variant which is 50% more transmissible. First dose vaccine only gives 30% protection from infection rising to 90% or so with two doses but regarding transmission two doses only reduce transmission by 50% so vaccines alone can only reduce the B.1.617.2 variant R0 = 7.8 to 3.9 so clearly other social distancing measures still need to be applied to keep R < 1.

All we need to do is keep in lock down another couple of months enough to get around 70% of the population fully vaccinated and with the cohort of people having recovered from infection with natural immunity we should have close to the 87% protection needed for herd immunity.

Fully vaccinated people catching COVID-19 are showing symptoms of sneezing according to the Zoe symptom study. This virus could become no more than a cold eventually.

At the moment, however, we have too many people with less than full protection.

What will the government do - take the risk of another rise in the death toll or play safe and protect citizens?


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## leopard

Indeed.

There's also the new strain of Bird flu that is starting to do the rounds too. A heady mix for this Autumn/Winter awaits.

Update: My symptoms from the second Astra Zenica jab have completely subsided, akin to turning off a switch... Weird.


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## John-H

I had my second jab today. No reaction and I can't even tell were the needle went in.


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## StuartDB

You're one of the test subjects who has a placebo.

That's done mighty research and documentation, you've provided.

0 deaths eh.... gotta be something to celebrate (even after a 3 day back holiday), once all the targets are out the way they'll be no more covid deaths.

World overpopulation, could have been achieved by simply releasing something to make 70% of all people infertile and 70% of newborns infertile. But someone decided they wanted a shorter more difficult solution.


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## John-H

It was a genuine vaccine - not a trial.

Noise in the numbers is just that. Not really worth a celebration. A genuine tend would be.

Male sperm count has seen an overall decline of 52.4% over the last 40 years but only in the West.


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## StuartDB

It's the women that need to be made infertile - a pride only has one male for all those ladies.


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## John-H

Pride goeth before destruction... _Proverbs 16:18_

Not that I'm religious at all.


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## StuartDB

I cannot judge you on your religious subconscious inclinations.

When I was in hospital I got to know the cleaners, porters etc.. and when a porter said he prayed for me the night before... I decided to have a quick whiz through the start of the new testimate and realised essentially all the stories in school RE lessons, moses, monty python holy grail based films or whatever; are covered in about the first ten pages. I'm not really sure what's in the other 900 pages.


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## John-H

Gordon Brown is doing some great work banging heads together trying to get the world vaccinated. Totally agree we are not safe until everybody is protected:


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## StuartDB

Its really easy for Labour to complain about the Government - they are called "The Opposition" so must oppose to every decision, action, point, discussion, consideration or something totally untrue posted in a Red Top.

Liz Truss yesterday complained that the government are not doing enough with the vaccination rollout, and they need to improve this. <-- surely the Labour MPs must understand that when they complain about Prime Minister Boris Johnson's amazing cabinet and allocated roles - they will just have more turncoat voters.

I had my second jab today, I got a bit confused (Bank Holiday) and missed my appointment last Tuesday - and rebooked on Thursday for today with no complications, but they didn't send any reminders for the missed appointment. the local big town has Pfizer in one location and AZ where I went, and I only waited about 5 minutes they had 4 tables - but considering most people due for AZ are already fully vaccinated or on the second one - they are not going to be that busy compared to the under 40s who go to the other community hospital.


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## John-H

I was talking about Gordon Brown's influence on world leaders.


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## John-H

The UK has just passed 3/4 of its population with a first dose and 1/2 population fully vaccinated but has not yet exported any vaccines although has promised to donate surplus doses and is calling on the G7 to donate 1 billion doses over the coming year. Critics say this isn't enough and is too slow resulting in development of variants.

More than 50% of the EU's adult population has received at least one coronavirus vaccine dosage, according to Ursula von der Leyen. The European Commission President said on Thursday that 100 million adults are now fully vaccinated. "We achieved that whilst never stopping exports," she remarked. Out of the 700 million doses produced within the bloc since December, around 350 million have been exported to over 90 countries, such as the United Kingdom, the United States, Canada, Mexico, Japan and Australia.

But for the World Health Organization, inoculation rates in Europe are still "far from sufficient to protect the region from a resurgence".

The full picture in Europe can be seen here:
https://www.euronews.com/2021/05/28/cov ... ng-the-way


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## StuartDB

It's sad when you just summarise other people's news..

Where has your opinion gone? Or is your opinion the regurgitation / summary articles?

Tell me John... what is it you desire? (Lucifer 1000 bc - 2021 AD

1. Manchester vaccinated tomorrow, because they ignore Andy Burnham?
2. Road Blocks to stop northerners coming past Watford-Gap?
3. New laptops for single parents?


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## John-H

This is sadder. It was predicted and is like watching a slow car crash.


















B.1.617.2 is 60% more transmissible, twice as likely to end you up in hospital and being fully vaccinated only reduces transmission by 50% and with 90+% protection from serious disease with reported symptoms more likely to be sneezing similar to a mild cold.

We still have the younger age groups unvaccinated and although they are much less likely to die, they are just as likely to become infected as anyone else and the risk of anyone developing debilitating "long Covid" is about 1 in 5.


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## StuartDB

Is it more likely to get you into hospital? Or do the hospital have more space now so bring in everyone they see? The cases have been increasing, but the death rate has either not caught up yet, the numbers of new infecting are wrong, the tests false positives issues are being highlighted or it is not so fatal.

As every adult is supposed to test every few days now there's a load more tests being completed and registered.

1.
This will highlight the 0.04% false positive results from the lateral flow tests. So even though there's the potential that 35m adults are testing every 3 days that's 10m a day 0.04% of 10,000,000 is 4,000 false positives a day (although there's noway that many people are self testing, and I doubt half the people testing positive would submit their results)

2. If you are positive do you still upload your results for each future test? Eg if 1000 people have tested positive for the 1st time on the 1st June, are all future positive tests (on 4th,7th,10th,13th,17th,20th,23rd) submitted over the next 3 weeks also added to new infections?


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## John-H

The tests I'm reporting are PCR lab tests and the capacity hasn't changed much since last year. It's got nothing to do with new lateral flow tests and false positives. The real infection rate is going up fast.

Hospitals are not inviting peuple in for a jolly time because they are twiddling their thumbs. My local hospital has re-opened its Covid ward and it's mostly younger people. Someone I know has a 15 year old in there. Whilst the young are less likely to be as seriously ill the B.1.617.2 variant is more infectious and twice more serious than B.117.


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## StuartDB

Some of the positive test guidelines are that when you get a positive lateral flow test you are supposed to have a pcr test.

I have to be honest - I was in a petrol station / supermarket yesterday and the only adults wearing masks were me and the staff. I'm not saying masks are the reason it's spreading, but if people don't care about that obvious rule, what else don't they care about?

We have local grandchildren in the house but we were their child care, and I have been to visit new grandson in Bidford. But those rules are allowed now, so what is the current rules.. mixing outdoors and mixing indoors with 2 families is allowed.. I think these current restrictions are fine for 90% of people.

What I don't get is France and Italy have a much smaller vaccinated percentage but their figures haven't gone bananas.. so do they not have the delta variant?


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## John-H

Remember Boris Johnson wanted a trade deal with India so was slow to limit travel: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/56801288


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## StuartDB

Yeah, a 1 billion quid deal doesn't sound much to me. But when we had an Indian developer, we paid the UK agency £850 a day, they paid the Indian agency £400 a day and they paid the developer £100 a day. So a billion might go a long way... maybe we can exchange our landfill for something they have that we want.


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## John-H

As Yvette Cooper said, _"They should have put India on the red list at the same time as Pakistan and Bangladesh. Since then, we've had this three-week period in which thousands of people have returned from India and that probably includes hundreds of the new variant Covid cases."_

India was added to the red list on 23 April, but neighbouring Pakistan and Bangladesh had been on it since 9 April.

France imposed quarantine restrictions on UK visitors as did Germany and Australia because of the B.1.617.2 variant taking off here.

We are an island. We didn't use that advantage and despite France and Germany behind behind us on vaccinations they have been able to contain the spread of the Johnson (B.1.617.2) variant whereas we have not.


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## StuartDB

It'll all work out in the end.. apparently the symptoms are a headache and runny nose, it wouldn't surprise me if some of these diseases have been around for years and just now being recorded because people are being treated for them all the time.

Last 5 days 45k new infections and about 50 deaths.. so at the moment about 1 in 1000.. obviously, a slight offset in timing,

I'm loving you calling the delta virus as the Johnson Variant. I am wondering whether our actual death figures will go crazy once the Care Home Scottish cover-up investigation (assuming it is being investigated) completes.


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## John-H

Stuart, don't you think the hospitals will test for Corona virus before admitting someone into a busy hospital Covid ward?

The same proof applies to the gold standard laboratory PCR tests used to give the infection figures. They don't use lateral flow for these figures.

Think about the answer and then consider whether the rest of your post makes sense apart from you loving me calling B.1.617.2 the *"Johnson variant"* (which they obviously identify as dominant from testing). I'm glad about the approval. I shall use it from now on


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## John-H

On the subject of transmission it's interesting to consider the effect of ONE person NOT being vaccinated in a chain of contact between three people.

Consider fully vaccinated parent and visiting unvaccinated child who has been in contact with an infected person.

*Chance of direct infection from carrier to:*
Vaccinated person: 0 - 10%
Unvaccinated person: 0 -100%
*
Chance of transmission from:*
Unvaccinated carrier: 0 - 100%
Vaccinated carrier: 0 - 50%

*Chance of parent being infected by:*
Unvaccinated child: (0x0x0 - 10% x 100% x 100%)
*= 0 - 10%*
Vaccinated child: 
(0x0x0 - 10% x 50% x 10%)
*= 0 - 0.5%*

So, up to 20 times safer for the vaccinated parent if the child is vaccinated.

Do your bit for Father's day


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## StuartDB

Only 1% of beds have covid patients in.. that's probably still quite a lot.

Are you saying the figures disclosed by the UK Government are only from pcr tests? If that's true then I am sure the infection figures are much higher.

They said on QT that the transmission rate is slowing down again.

Like losing golf balls in a playing field, if you always lose one then you will start finding them again. Once you get to a certain level of saturation, things don't go up or down.


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## haldex

what's the general thought on lockdowns later this summer and autumn/winter?


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## John-H

This might help you decide...


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## StuartDB

No clue then.... just a load of colourful charts.

Bedford Hospital have a meeting everyday and the staff, I spoke to - are not worried, and nothing of concern was discussed.. or at least they weren't on Tuesday... I am glad I'm not a young'r.. I took my son for his 1st vaccine today.. and they are keeping everyone for 15 minutes after Pfizer jabs... I'm glad it was not 30° today.. some young bloke put his hand up and was put in a wheel chair and taken for a lie down somewhere... its probably anxiety induced panic attack... I was just annoyed the mobile coverage was rubbish so I couldn't play pokemon shuffle.

It would be easier for me if the lockdown extended, as I don't want to go to a family gathering for all the people who couldn't go to a wedding.


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## John-H

You need an explanation?









Well, this one (above - click to expand) shows the daily cases and the R rate on a rolling seven day average. This shows that the cases are increasing exponentially, similar to how they increased in September/October last year, only now it's summer which you'd think would relatively supress the spread of the virus because people are outdoors more with windows open and better ventilation etc. What the increase in the infection rate shows is that we are nowhere near herd immunity under the dominant Johnson variant (B.1.617.2) despite the effect of vaccines. This is partly due to more of the lower age cohort being unvaccinated but spread is also occurring in the partially and fully vaccinated. You are 20 times more likely to catch and pass on the virus if unvaccinated but being fully vaccinated only reduces onwards transmission by 50% and you still have a 10% chance of catching it.









This second graph shows that hospital admissions are rising as they did in September last year. Hospital admissions lead deaths by four weeks or so and there is some indication that deaths are rising but the numbers are low and similar to where they were in September last year. The next few weeks will tell if they are going to rise.









This final graph includes the total death toll. The parallelograms show the connection of gradient rate of rise and delay between infections and deaths. You can see where SAGE advised a lockdown in September last year and Johnson delayed until November which added 30,000 unnecessary deaths and then relaxed too early in early December, introducing useless tiers giving an immediate rapid and steeper rise of infection which correlates to the rapid increase in death toll in January/February by a further 60,000 unnecessary deaths, only brought back under control by the lockdown imposed at the start of January.

Now the infections are rising again, a similar parallelogram gradient and delay could be predicting another 20-30,000 deaths over July/August but it depends very much on whether hospital admissions translate to the same death rate. Have vaccines broken the link? If the death toll starts to rise as before I'd predict another lock down by the end of July as the government realise they've got it wrong again and should have listened to the scientific advice telling them to wait until everyone is vaccinated to stop transmission, but the deaths may not materialise due to people in hospital being younger and more likely to survive their stay.

The government should be looking at hospital admissions and not waiting for deaths. Admissions will still clog up the NHS but there is a danger that they may forge ahead with releasing restrictions further if deaths remain low.

Either way however, allowing infections to circulate only increases the chance of more variants. We should wait to vaccinate everybody and achieve herd immunity so R<<1 and the virus stops spreading and dies out.

If we get a variant that evades the vaccines then we are back to square one to repeat the whole thing again.


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## StuartDB

So Hancock has resigned... Pretti-Patel has a no-nonsense approach to managing rebellious civil servants 

This resignation will create a precedence.... it will signify that anyone breaking a rule will be told to resign.... and to be honest, it wouldn't surprise me if he staged it - to allow an exit without Cummings getting the glory.


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## John-H

Useful information here about the various strains or variants of Coronavirus including how effective each vaccine type is against each variant:

https://www.bhf.org.uk/informationsuppo ... t#SAoxford

This video explained by a doctor highlights and explains a preprint paper's research findings that rare incidents of blood clotting associated with vector vaccines such as Astrazeneca were caused by unfortunate intra venous injection into a blood vessel rather than intramuscular injection.






Usually vaccine delivery is into the deltoid muscle in the upper arm which allows a delayed release into the blood stream and lymphatic system. However, people with a thin deltoid risk the needle reaching a blood vessel. If this happens with immediate delivery into the blood stream the research findings suggest clots can be formed due to immune reaction in the spleen.

The solution is to "aspirate" when injecting - pull back the plunger to check for blood before pushing the plunger in - as explained here:

https://www.healthline.com/health/intra ... tion#howto

Although training may have told nurses this is unnecessary.

The paper has not been peer reviewed but there are previous references to this problem in past medical literature.


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## John-H

The infection rate is a concern having risen to the same level as when the second lockdown started in early November:










Hospital admissions are rising but not at the same rate indicating success of vaccines breaking the link between infection and hospital admission - or possibly with a larger delay. Admissions are partly amongst the unvaccinated but are now a younger age group so possibly take longer to deteriorate.










Having a rising pool of infection is not a good thing and can't be ignored as with it comes a greater chance of developing or encouraging a vaccine resistant variant - which could set us back to square one and require everyone to receive a new effective vaccine. The South African Beta B.1.351 variant is present in the UK in small numbers at the moment. A small study of 2,000 people in South Africa has shown that the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine offers minimal protection against mild cases of the Beta variant, but the vaccine is still likely to reduce severe cases and deaths from the strain.

The study, which was based on people of an average age of 31, shows that protection may be as low as 10% causing the use of the AZ vaccine to be halted. The research wasn't able to determine whether it protects against serious illness or hospitalisation, because this group of people were at low risk of serious illness. Other research suggests that the vaccine is still likely to reduce severe cases and deaths from the B.1.351 strain. More research is needed in this area.

Oxford University is working on adapting the vaccine to ensure that it protects against this variant, as well as other strains. They have said a 'booster' jab could be available by autumn 2021.

The dominant Johnson variant (Delta B.1.617.2) now has the following symptoms in order of reported prevalence:

*Unvaccinated:*

Headache
Sore Throat
Runny Nose
Fever
Persistent cough

*Single dose:*

Headache
Runny nose
Sore throat
Sneezing
Persistent cough

*Two doses:*

Headache
Runny nose
Sneezing
Sore throat
Other

The previous 'traditional' symptoms as still outlined on the government website, such as anosmia (loss of smell), shortness of breath and fever rank way down the list, at 11, 29 and 12 respectively. A persistent cough now ranks at number 8 if you've had two vaccine doses, so is no longer the top indicator of having COVID.

Curiously, it's been noticed that people who had been vaccinated and then tested positive for COVID-19 were more likely to report sneezing as a symptom compared with those without a jab.

These symptoms are similar to a summer cold or hey fever so beware.

If you've been vaccinated and start sneezing a lot without an explanation, you should get a COVID test, especially if you are living or working around people who are at greater risk from the disease.


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## leopard

The two dose jobby are exactly the symptoms I had and lasted just over a week although the PCR and flow tests showed negative. I'm still wondering whether I had the latest variant.
In fact are the flow and PCR tests effective in diagnosing the new strain or are they geared towards the Kent / South Aftican variety [smiley=sick2.gif] [smiley=bomb.gif]


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## John-H

The lateral flow devices work by detecting the nucleocapsid protein inside the virus whereas the "variant" identity relates to to spike protein on the surface which the lateral flow tests don't look for but your immune system does. PCR tests amplify the RNA so can also go onto identify the variant with use of genomic sequencing.

They can also look for antibodies from a previous infection and discriminate for antibodies from vaccine with a blood test. Something I'll be getting as part of the ONS survey next week to check the vaccine efficacy.


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## StuartDB

Do you know if you go to A&E with a temperature they put you in a covid room, meaning even if you just have a chest infection.. you then need to self-isolate when you go home.

Luckily, they didn't do that with with children. My daughter was told by the GP legally she needs to keep her child at home to self isolate because he has a temperature, but take him to A&E because it probably isn't CovID.


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## StuartDB

We are at about 15 deaths in 25,000 reported covid infections, so let's assume that's 150,000 actual infections.

I am not sure how relevant this is (as it is so old).. but it must be more dangerous going for a walk and crossing a road. Than walking around and catching covid and dying...

https://www.jstor.org/stable/3007711

I think the scientists tried running, hopping, walking backwards and closing their eyes as part of the University Experiment of 'How dangerous is it crossing a road


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## John-H

There were 1,770 UK road deaths in 2018. There are two orders of magnitude difference in deaths compared with Covid-19.

One difficulty with that comparison is that you can see and predict road traffic and the road is fixed so the deaths depend entirely on our behaviour but you can't see the virus or predict how variants will behave. We have introduced a vaccine, which is analogous to lowering the speed limit making eventual collision less deadly but the vaccine/speed limit doesn't apply everywhere and a variant could ignore that limit. We can also alter our own behaviour and take more or less care with the government either mandating or advising that behaviour and it's scope.

Related: SAGE break ranks to call the government's plans to unlock "bonkers" given only half the population are vaccinated and infections are increasingly rampant (with R = 1.7) setting up "variant factories". Making precautions a personal choice sends the wrong message when it's a "we" thing and not an "I" thing and government is washing its hands of responsibility.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/ ... d-24456506

Will you throw away your mask and increase the risk to yourself and everyone around you?

A worrying time for bus and taxi drivers.


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## StuartDB

Amazing "Post CovId19" news to finally apply therapy to the unvaccinated and poorly people exposing themselves to risk and allowing the other 99.999% of the UK to 'get on with it' absolute 'double disaster' for Labour leader Kier Starmer ignored for scare mongering, but the worst outcome for him voting legislation which stops students (who don't understand real life) illegally voting twice (usually for Labour see previous point) they probably should be stopped from voting at all  #triggered


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## StuartDB

We all know the lockdown babies conceived between March 2020 and July 2021 - will be known as 'quaranteens' so what will a victim of a new babyboom of post lockdown babies be called when they are teenagers? I vote for 'FreeDrones'.. they essentially are going to be conceived in club toilets, back alleys, taxi cabs.. after the PM "Boris Amazing Johnson".. opened up the flood gates... allowing imprisoned young adults the keys to the party cupboard.


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## John-H

You are making no sense again Stuart. It looks like English but I can't make head nor tail of it.

Are you using your predictive text to write sentences for you? I'll see if mine makes any more sense:

I've also heard that government is to the EU and the Tax payers Alliance for you and over to me know off the for you and you might be able to get rid of the crowd funded cases where it was a bit of a good to see you are interested in your spam folder on the surface of the ministerial code is into that you make are incited violence against the same time to check your facts right now and the end of this month and I can see that the UK has always been able to log on now we know that we have lost their own resources and.

There, back at you!


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## John-H

*"With just over 50% of the population fully vaccinated, by letting the virus run through the population, we are creating the perfect conditions for the selection of mutations that allow the virus to evade the vaccine. This strategy may therefore not only be risky for England, but could also set back the global fight against the pandemic," said Ghani.*

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... third-wave

All the people who don't or can't have protection from vaccination are being put at risk or forced into isolation by rising infections due to opening up too early. The young and others have a 1 in 5 chance of developing "long Covid"

The government keep saying _'If we don't open up now then when will we open up?'_ - well the answer Mr Johnson is, 
*WHEN EVERYONE IS VACCINATED OBVIOUSLY!* - which wouldn't have been long if you had only waited!

He made the ridiculous point that we can't wait until winter because infections will be rising more then. What? He obviously doesn't have the intelligence to realise that unlocking now will increase infections both now and in the winter, landing us with a far bigger infection level, which by his own argument we should be locking down again for!

The uncomfortable body language from the scientists stood next to him spoke volumes.


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## StuartDB

How many of the infections are real? Teenagers are making potions which create a false positive on the lateral flow test to get out of school. I think it's essentially citric acid- lemon and orange juices... if this shows an anti gen response is it also a therapy?


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## John-H

I did say several times that the official recorded cases are lab based PCR tests. They can't be fooled by school kids. Your surmise is erroneous.


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## StuartDB

In not sure about that statement, as you also said we hadn't increased our capacity in 12 months which means they are only testing 100,000 people with pcr.. but more like 800,000 adults would be tested and (if positive) told to self-isolate.. those people wouldn't be tested again as they'd be okay in a day or two.. also why does the weekend have less infection figures as they would be processing Thursdays on Saturday and Fridays on Sunday. So I would expect to see a rise in figures over the weekend instead of a drop.

I went to Wembley to watch Eng V Den today.. and my wife said this morning whilst I was getting ready to leave... 'Have you done a lateral flow test?' You can guess my reply... "Why the F*ck would I do a test? I will test a couple of days after I get back if I feel 'iffy' "

Going there was quiet and empty... the tube back out, reminded me of a scene from World War Z. :>


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## John-H

PCR testing capacity is projected to be around 615,000 per day. When I said it hadn't increased since October I was referring to the fact that the increase in capacity could no longer be seen as influencing the increase in positive cases as it was no longer a limiting factor - to disprove the false argument that numbers were only going up because more tests were being done. Now capacity is high enough that can no longer be a possibility - not that it was significant before either because increase in numbers still reflected the demand of infection in the short term. The capacity effect could only be seen in the longer term when comparing first wave to second wave etc.










https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details ... _test_type

As regards the "weekend effect" people are more reluctant to be admitted to hospital at night and the weekend and if they are admitted are more likely to be in a worse condition and more likely to die. This has led to a false perception that you are more likely to die at the weekend in hospital due to lower staffing levels when in fact the causal effect is reversed.

Overall there are less admissions at the weekend and the process of recording deaths is slower because of the need to contact relatives etc which is why the reporting date tends to slip out from the weekend and gets included in mid week figures. A similar thing happens with testing and with there being no postal collection on Sunday for home testing returns.


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## SwissJetPilot

Post deleted by user.


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## FNChaos

SwissJetPilot said:


> Interesting. A pandemic that's killed over 90 thousand people in Germany and has a recovery rate of ~96%. On the other hand between 100,000 and 120,000 people die every year as a result of smoking*. Smoking seems to be a much greater risk to the average German's health than CV-19 and has been for decades. Maybe Herr Heinz should take away smokers' freedom too, at least until they have been forced to quit smoking. It would be an inevitable conclusion from smoking related deaths.
> *Informationssystem der Gesundheitsberichterstattung des Bundes


 [smiley=smoking.gif] a couple of thoughts come to mind...

Death by smoking is self-inflicted, death by coronavirus is not.

While there is some evidence 'second-hand' smoke can kill, there are many restrictions limiting where smoking is allowed. This makes it possible for non-smokers to avoid risk. On the other hand, The unvaccinated are not easily identified from those that are. This makes it hard to avoid situations where the risk of contacting Covid is high.

The number of deaths from Covid-19 would likely be significantly higher than the number of deaths by smoking, influenza, etc. *if* it wasn't for the fact that many people did get vaccinated (possibly saving themselves and reducing the spread to others).

Covid-19 has not been defeated. Each new infection (no matter how minor) is another chance for mutation. The annual death toll from Covid-19 could increase significantly with a new variant. The death toll from smoking will not change unless more people start smoking.

The Delta variant is in the news now (showing some resistance to our current vaccines) and there is some concern that the Lambda variant (currently predominant in Peru) may be worse. What if a future 'Romeo', 'Sierra' or 'Tango' mutation becomes completely resistant to our current vaccines? If the number of opportunities for mutation can be reduced though vaccination, can those who's personal choices lead to increased mutation opportunities be held responsible?

Since the health risks associated with smoking are known, most insurance companies charge a premium for heath or life coverage (at least here in the US). Should insurance companies be able to charge the unvaccinated a premium since those people represent a greater risk / greater cost?

Many life insurance policies have clauses nullifying the policy if the insured participates in risky behavior (i.e skydiving). Since the chance of dying is greater among the unvaccinated, should Covid-related death be a cause to void a policy?

Or considering that many Countries are providing the vaccine for free, should a medical provider be able to completely refuse treatment for any Covid-related illness to those that refuse to be vaccinated?

There have been criminal cases (resulting in jail time and financial penalties) where someone who knew they were HIV positive withheld that information and knowingly infected others. If someone claims to be vaccinated for Covid-19 (but is not) and that person infects someone else should 'victims' of the 'unvaccinated' have recourse?


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## John-H

Add to that the thought of how much bigger the death toll would have been if lockdowns and social distancing/restrictions hasn't been imposed and we just instead let the virus rip through society.

Another thought is health and safety and the obligations on an employer and employee to mitigate risk. Does that impose an obligation to vaccinate to protect oneself and others?


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## SwissJetPilot

Post deleted by user.


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## FNChaos

SwissJetPilot said:


> Fact is, those who have been vaccinated can still get, and spread CV-19. The vaccine does not eliminate the possibility of either getting or transmitting CV-19 because no vaccine offers 100% protection.-->snip


Best case, the Pfizer & Moderna vaccines provide ~90% protection against contracting the virus if you are exposed to it and maybe less with the Delta variant ( recent reports coming out of Israel that suggest the vaccine is only 60% effective against Delta)

1 in 10 chance isn't great, but 2 in 5... you have better odds playing Russian roulette.

Now the key phrase is "if you're exposed to it". Obviously not everyone you meet is infected, but if you're surrounded by unvaccinated people who've made little attempt to 'social distance' there is a good chance that someone in the crowd will be a disease vector. In this scenario your odds of contracting Covid falls somewhere between 10 & 40 percent.

Now if everyone around you has 60 - 90% protection, and on top of that you have 60 - 90% protection the odds of contracting the virus becomes significantly lower. This idea creates a 'social contract' with you and your fellow man. My protection increases your protection. Your protection increases my protection. If we all agree to this we all benefit from it. This reduction also has the added benefit of reducing the opportunities for mutation which in turn helps ensure that the current vaccines remain viable. Win-win-win.

As far as liability goes, we know most of the consequences of contracting Covid (and there is evidence that there may be additional long-term neurological damage still ahead, even for those who had mild cases).

On the other hand, there have been over 3.42 Billion doses of CV19 vaccines administered with very few complications (and in most of the reported pcases the evidence is circumstantial at best).

I think it is safe to say companies face less risk of liability promoting vaccinations than paying for Covid-related employee health costs.


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## SwissJetPilot

Post deleted by user.


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## John-H

The safety of the vaccines has been established via large safety trials during the approval process in the normal way. They have not omitted any part of the approval process. The reason why it was done quickly is because of the up front investment allowing various stages, normally concatenated, to be run in parallel.

The vaccines are around 90% effective at stopping you becoming infected with Corona virus and halve your chances of passing it on if you do develop COVID-19, so the effect on transmission should be a 20 fold reduction or 95%.

The significance of that is the potential impact on herd immunity. The R0 value of the "Johnson" (B.1.617.2 or "Delta") variant is estimated around 8.0, so to achieve herd immunity with R < 1 we'd need vaccine effectiveness in the population to be 1 - 1/R0 = 0.875 or 87.5%.

With only 52% of the population fully vaccinated we've only got 95% x 0.52 = 49.4% vaccine effectiveness in the population. Consequently with R0 = 8, R = 1.97 which is still well into exponential growth and the reason why it's crazy to remove lockdown restrictions at this stage. To do so indicates the government could be hoping to achieve herd immunity through infecting the remaining unvaccinated portion of the population which is reckless because it will kill tens of thousands and encourage virus mutation and the possibility of a vaccine resistant variant emerging negating vaccine effectiveness worldwide.

However, given we have 68.8% of the population with first dose, we don't have to wait too long. We need to get to 92% of the population fully vaccinated for vaccine effectiveness to be 87.5% and bring R<1 but we will get there quicker because of those who already have natural immunity from having survived infection already - although natural immunity is likely to be less effective than a vaccine.

The main point is that it will be much better to wait until we have herd immunity with R<1 and keep certain restrictions in place so R<<1 before unlocking because at that point the virus will be in exponential decay and rapidly disappear - removing the danger of infection and the 1 in 5 chance of developing "long Covid".

The way the government are behaving by unlocking too early is to keep the population splashing about in a Petri dish and maintain our plague island status.

As for how long antibodies last, the ONS are running a study to monitor antibodies through vaccination (and infection) which I'm involved with through blood sampling which is to run into next year so I'll let you know :wink:


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## StuartDB

Amazing news the UK are lifting all restrictions on the 19th July, after such a long period over +20k new daily infections < 20 daily deaths. 0.1% is surely a reasonable risk?

We will expect a rise, but fingers crossed it stays managable.


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## John-H

The proportion of deaths from infection is not really relevant if we allow infections to rise without limit - deaths will follow.

For example, if the doubling time remains nine days then 32,000 cases and 32 deaths per day will become 500,000 cases and 500 deaths per day in five weeks, providing there is no other modifying influence. The chances of "long Covid" are about 1 in 5 of those infected which would be 100,000 sufferers.

The UK is the only county to remove lockdown restrictions in the face of rising infections.


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## StuartDB

We cannot hide forever.. some people need to buy food and clothing...

There's not many people left to infect... 

I do wonder the actual life long injuries from long covid and how comparable they are with 'city life' or smoking etc? That's not saying okay.. but I hope we will make it through the other side.

I am not worried about being the 1st to do something, we were the 1st to vaccinate too..


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## John-H

We all haven't been infected by the next variant we are breeding :wink: Most of our population is not yet fully vaccinated for the existing variants.

The UK was indeed the first country to start vaccinating its population on December 8 2020. In Europe Germany has now overtaken the UK with total number of vaccinations given:








(Click to enlarge)

Of course Germany has a larger population and if you look at the share of population vaccinated worldwide the picture is different:








(Click to enlarge)

The rate of vaccination worldwide shows we are slipping behind vaccinating our younger adults:








(Click to enlarge)

As to how we are doing with infections now it's a bit grim with a rapid rate of rise - and we are about to take the brakes off:








(Click to enlarge)

This is already translating into hospital admissions and deaths:








(Click to enlarge)

.... and we are about to take the brakes off :?


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## StuartDB

What is it you expect to happen?

There'll always be another variant, we need to put our big boy pants on now..


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## John-H

There need not be another variant. Without transmission there is no evolution. That's why I said the government are turning us into a Petri dish culture experiment by stoking the fire of transmission.

The government could instead keep restrictions in place for another couple of months and in that short time vaccinate the rest of the population and at the same time also suppress infections and better manage track and trace and isolation. That way in two months we could have this infection under control and with eventual herd immunity the infection would diminish, die away and reduce the risk of producing variants until when it's not transmitting at all there is no chance of variants.

What do I think will happen? Unless they change their minds or introduce some other intervention they will stoke the fire and the virus will rip through the remaining half of the population. We'll have more deaths mostly in the older population and partially vaccinated but also the clinically vulnerable, and the indestructible young including those not vaccinated will provide their contribution to the rising toll.

I did predict that in five weeks we could at the present rate of doubling see 500k infections, 500 deaths per day and with 100k going on to develop long Covid across all age groups - per day. If the peak of infection is drawn out for another five weeks (if that's the peak) you'd be looking at several million incapacitated. You can see this trend in the numbers - it's a simple mathematical correlation based on the present trend.

There is a "potential caveat scenario" to that (apologies for use of an ex work colleague's favourite expression!) But it depends very much on people's behaviour which can change and the government who have reversed and changed direction so much it's like being at a barn dance. A small change to the transmission coefficient can cause a big change in the numbers.

The government are removing legal restrictions but backtracking the advice and passing the buck to individuals thus absolving themselves of blame. However, employers and businesses are starting to realise that _they_ then have a legal obligation under the Health and Safety at Work act to protect their employees and the public from harm. The lawyer's are already sharpening their litigation pencils and employers are already starting to react by insisting on masks and vaccinations etc. This will increase.

I will repeat that we are the only country to be removing restrictions in the face of rising infection. Israel are further vaccinated than us and had driven down infection but the Johnson variant has caused infections to rise again there so they are re-introducing restrictions.

When will our government ever learn that scientific advice is not a bargaining position to be compromised?


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## StuartDB

Too long to read.. what's your point?

If Andy Burnham said its okay... would you still protest?


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## John-H

What I said.


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## ashfinlayson

At this point I care far more about the education and economy for the young population that have made huge sacrifices to protect the older population that has now been protected by vaccination. We were told from the off that this was going to be a seasonal virus and that the vaccine was the way out.


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## John-H

The chances of developing long Covid from infection is around 1 in 5 with little age variance (compared to chances of death which doubles every six years). Younger people are less/not vaccinated. The highest infection rates are now in those 24 years of age and under, consequently they are the group most exposed to the risk of developing long Covid.


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## StuartDB

Hopefully - they'll be okay 

We don't want to get to a point where young people start resenting the elderly..... they're already wound up about old people... for kicking Brexit out the park..

10 people in my son in laws cricket club has covid aged 22-30 - 1 feels poorly, the others didn't know they had 'the illness'


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## John-H

Report out this morning that younger adults admitted to hospital with Covid are almost as likely to suffer from complications as those over 50 years old.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57840825


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## StuartDB

They have added 200 symptoms of 'long covid' apparently ... from feeling tired to feeling energetic and erectile disfunction to feeling randy.

Surely fake savid javid covid result.

We have to learn to live with this virus. This is the message did over a year.

People will get ill and die, but the other 99.9% won't..


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## John-H

Long Covid isn't trivial though with clear multiple sourced evidence of debilitating effects. Why claim the government are presenting the public with false information about the Health Secretary? I thought you liked this government? What motivation would they have to create a false story about him?

Vaccines have reduced the ratio of infections to deaths from ~1% to ~0.1% but also shifted the age group away from the elderly to the young and the unvaccinated.

If infections are allowed to let rip unchecked to 10 times the previous peak we'll have just as many deaths as before only this time younger people and unvaccinated.

On top of that we'll have ten times the long Covid sufferers.

Is that what's meant by "living with the virus"?


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## SwissJetPilot

Post deleted by user.


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## John-H

Did anyone spot the three hour U turn this morning? The Chancellor and the Prime Minister had been pinged by the NHS to self isolate after coming in contact with the Health Secretary but had announced they would be using the VIP testing trial to avoid isolation.

After various commentators, the opposition and struggling companies said it was one law for them and one for everyone else - three hours later they were isolating at home :roll:


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## StuartDB

I think they are going to try and force people to install this app. Maybe if you need to enter a shop, restaurant etc - you must scan in and if your app has not been up and running for at least 10 days and you have biometrically identified yourself successfully during this period, you are refused entry.

I have not downloaded the app.

I know a big complaint is where people are not with their phones but the phones are with everyone else's. Like maybe in a meth lab, where everyone has to work in their undies  or more likely in a teacher's or school kids lockers?


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## John-H

Boris Johnson begs England to 'please, please be careful' as he braces for catastrophe. "Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory" in a massive gamble.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/ ... e-24562509


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## StuartDB

YOLO


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## John-H

YODO


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## John-H

Regarding the screeching U - turn the best quote was that Johnson and Sunak were like bank robbers who got caught so offered to give the money back :lol:


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## StuartDB

I always preferred the going "ouch... I really hurt myself when I tackled you"

Not a lot has changed round our way...


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## John-H

*BBC News - Covid: Boris Johnson resisted autumn lockdown as only over-80s dying - Dominic Cummings*








https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-57854811

On 13 October, with Covid deaths having risen to more than 100 a day, Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer called for a "circuit-breaker" lockdown of two to three weeks, but the government decided against this.

In a WhatsApp message sent on 15 October, shared with the BBC, Mr Johnson appears to have described himself as *"slightly rocked by some of the data on Covid fatalities"*.

The "median age" for those dying was between 81 and 82 for men and 85 for women, the prime minister allegedly wrote, adding: *"That is above life expectancy. So get Covid and Live longer.
*
*"Hardly anyone under 60 goes into hospital... and of those virtually all survive. And I no longer buy all this NHS overwhelmed stuff. Folks I think we may need to recalibrate... There are max 3m in this country aged over 80."*

He reportedly went on to write: *"It shows we don't go for nationwide lockdown."*

But 16 days later the prime minister announced a four-week lockdown for England on 31 October, saying this was needed to protect the NHS as figures suggested deaths could reach *"several thousand a day"* without *"tough action".*
*
Queen row (confirmed by others)*

Cummings said, *"You can't go and see the Queen. What if you go and see her and give the Queen coronavirus? You obviously can't go."*

He continued: *"I just said, 'If you give her coronavirus and she dies, what are you going to [do]? You can't do that. You can't risk that. That's completely insane.'
"And [the PM] said - he basically just hadn't thought it through - 'Yeah...I can't go'."*
*
Full interview tonight at 7 pm on BBC2*


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## StuartDB

Cummings is like a old bit of mouldy bread which the looney-left have put onto a pedestal, they'll put his statue up next to Lady Diana's once Tories are out of office in 11 years... 

Pretty sure the Queen has had 2 vaccines, so she is safe after the amazing proactive decision Prime Minister Boris Johnson did by pushing and investing into umpteen Vaccine's with the faint hope we can Save Our Souls - no one else was going to save us... and between Trump and Boris Johnson the UK and US developed enough high grade Vaccines and purpose built factories to save humanity.

Remember our struggles with testing.. now the UK are only behind the US and India in number of tests completed. 235m tests completed in the UK, we only have a population of 68m... its this incredible country wide effort managed by the Tories and the extra investment with the right balance in the NHS , Big-Pharma, Tech and entrepreneurs by the Tories that have allowed people in the UK to make their own decisions regarding personal wellbeing and safety, after the terribly sad and 'controlling' approach whilst we were gathering enough information and making over 60m people safe using vaccines to dampen down this awful disease and helping to protect the few citizens who are unable to be vaccinated through pre-existing conditions or their rights of choice.

I look at Kier and in all honesty, if he was PM he would step aside and let Tony Blair or Andy Burnham take the lead, as he is absolutely clueless - another typical left who is both a republican (want rid of the Queen of England) whilst happily receiving special awards.. for something or other... just like Jimmy Savile the Queen should take back Kier's prizes...

Well done Boris Johnson... you have had the most difficult PM job since Winston Churchill.. I think Tony Blair had the 'PollTax' fallout and made 3 billion enemies of the UK by bombing Muslim women and children. (Probably contributed to 911, 7/7, Grande Manchester Bombing) but at least 8 good seasons of HOMELAND 

Gordon Brown had Top Gear mock him, for only having one eye...


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## John-H

Oh dear Stuart. Something's riled you. Don't tell me you watched the evil Cummings who is responsible for dividing our society and causing irreparable harm to the country?

He's a useful witness though because he was there in the room and he's provided various confirmatory Watsapp and text messages.

Yes we know Johnson is responsible for around 100k unnecessary deaths due to his dithering over lock down and unlocking too early. And we know now that one of the reasons he left it too late was because he wouldn't heed Keir Starmer's call to lock down because he didn't want to lose political face. Yes, he puts politics before public health. It all ties in with what we know.

As for vaccines you make out that if it wasn't for Johnson the world wouldn't have vaccines - a ludicrous idea. The AZ vaccine was created before Johnson had even attended his first Cobra meeting because he wasn't taking it seriously at that time but Oxford were. He did stitch up AZ later in a contract for preferential supply from UK manufacture leaving the EU short on their order but now the tables have turned: The UK vaccination programme has stalled to the slowest due to a lack of Pfizer vaccines with only 300k first doses left and with orders not due until September and we've been overtaken by Germany as the EU storms ahead.

But why is Johnson opening night clubs etc and in another U turn insisting there will be vaccine passports needed to be let in - but not until October?

He couldn't be trying to hide the shortage and going for herd immunity through infection could be? Something else he's been accused of trying before and appears to be pursuing now. That will leave millions victims of long Covid. Something else he will be held responsible for in the eventual enquiry.

You can see cases are now shooting up and nearly as high as January:










And hospital admissions and deaths are now shooting up at the same rate of doubling despite the weakened link from infection due to vaccines. The biggest age group is now 18 to 24 and unvaccinated.










And just as a reminder of how Johnson's dithering and reluctance to lock down led to the death toll you can follow the events around the parallelograms:


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## John-H

*Tory MPs including Jacob Rees-Mogg refuse plea from speaker to wear masks in House of Commons*

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/ ... s-24587208

How to set a good example to the public :roll:

I see also that the Prime Minister, since being required to isolate after meeting with the infected Health Secretary in Downing Street, has travelled 40 miles to the 1500 acre Chequeres retreat with its own heated indoor swimming pool and attendant staff. The Chancellor is isolating in Downing Street. Questions have been asked - not that anyone is suspicious.


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## FNChaos

Here in the US, the decision on whether or not one gets vaccinated is largely influenced by politics (and where you get your news...) rather than science. 'Red' states by & large have some of the lowest vaccination rates in the country while 'Blue' states have some of the highest.
See: Extreme Right moved beyond Fox news

"Overall, 86 percent of Democrats have had a least one shot of the vaccine, according to a Washington Post/ABC News poll, but only 45 percent of Republicans have done so"
See: GOP criminally reckless

Some Republican leaders have even gone so far as to 'crow' that stopping Pres Biden from achieving a 70% vaccination goal was some sort of a political victory for team Trump?
See: Vaccination goal sabotaged

As predicted, once mask mandates were lifted people went back to their old routines, (even though they were advised to continue wear masks indoors if unvaccinated and to continue social distancing as appropriate) acting as though Covid-19 had been eradicated or that it somehow magically disappeared...

Now there is a 4th wave of Covid-19 (mostly Delta) in the US and it is hitting Red states particularly hard. States like Alabama have a vaccination rate of ~34% (!?!). Much too low to see any benefits from 'herd immunity'. Currently more than 97% of the people hospitalized with Covid-19 are unvaccinated and 99% of all Covid-19 deaths in the US are among the unvaccinated.

It is hard not to think that maybe those that are dying right now deserve what they get, but healthcare workers are still out there trying to save people from themselves.
See: I'm sorry but it is too late :?

Personally I've become a little more jaded as I watch this drag on, thinking it's nigh-time to start handing out 'Darwin awards' to those that think they're invulnerable [smiley=whip.gif]


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## StuartDB

So... Riddle Me This....

Labour Leader 'Sir Kier Starmer' was phoned up to inform him he needs to "Self Isolate" so.....

When 619,000 people were 'Pinged' by the excellent 'Tory Backed' NHS 'life saving app' Kier Starmer was contacted through the dedicated analysts helping the UK with 'Track And Trace' can someone advise WHY, HOW, WHO, WHEN Kier's App didn't 'Ping'....?

Let's face it -- Kier and his family have not installed this app.. thankfully, they were still hunted down by Track And 
Trace...


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## John-H

I think you have just highlighted the fact that Keir Starmer didn't try to get out of it - unlike Boris Johnson who tried to excuse himself via a VIP trial excuse and then backtracked less than three hours later :roll:


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## John-H

So, on top of the Brexit lorry driver crisis the government have reacted to the increasing pings from the track and trace app by exempting them and food supply workers. At least they are requiring tests but of course the app is only responding to the increase in infections fuelled by the government.


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## John-H

More than half of EU adults now fully vaccinated against COVID, says Brussels

https://www.euronews.com/2021/07/22/mor ... s-brussels


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## StuartDB

So..... the number of daily infections are dropping off 'naturally' as the country is unlocked now, and people are trusted to be cautious when necessary.

But... let's face it...

People are not getting tested unless they are ill as a positive result impacts so many people....

Employers
Employees
Customers
Suppliers
Friends
Family

With the leisure businesses now open and trading Example: my daughter and her family are going to Bestival next week for 5 or 6 days.

The app and test and trace could destroy that family holiday.. I personally think it's going to be used as a weapon eg an 'Annoyed Ex' could ruin a day out at Thorpe Park for his/her Ex and friendship group. By getting a positive test sorted a couple of days before.

Or people are worried about being sacked (or bullied by work mates) for causing a mass group isolation

Instead... most people will simply push on through it, as we know it hardly impacts anyone and of those who it did impact most are vaccinated now.


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## ashfinlayson

Good on them for going away and getting on with things. I went on a friends stag weekend in Cornwall a couple of weekends ago, before restrictions had been lifted which put a bit of a dampener on the weekend - Lots of nazi-like door staff and bar managers, lots of kitchen's closed due everyone getting pinged, but we had a laugh anyway. We've got a wedding to go to in Wales in a couple of weeks, then we're going to Cornwall for a family break. Fed up of home working now so nice to get away.


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## John-H

*Ministers 'fear coronavirus could be spread by farting in a confined space'*

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/ ... d-24609803

Government ministers talking pose similar risks for obvious reasons :roll:


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## StuartDB

5th day in a row in England infections have 'naturally' reduced.. and even better in Scotland... the whole world including WHO are examining and observing the UKs daring experiment. Thank Goodness we have politicians who care for the young and influential as well as the old and infirm. God help us all...


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## John-H

Thing is we don't though do we Stuart - we have a bunch of chancers and opportunists led by a serial liar who care little for the young because there are no votes to be gained and are effectively allowing them to become infected in a drive for herd immunity through infection because they are fixated on the economy and their support base and donors.

Why do you think they have opened up night clubs before their proposed vaccine passports? Not that I think vaccine passports are a good idea but the timing is telling.

You could say the young are less likely to die from infection but 1 in 5 get long Covid and if admitted to hospital have a 50% chance of organ damage.

Regarding the "old" we know how they promised a "ring of steel" around care homes but discharged infected patients from hospital into them resulting in (March-May 2020) nearly 40% excess deaths of people in care homes and more in the second wave.

This idiot government have unlocked when infections are still high with the Executive Director of the WHO calling what we are doing *"epidemiological stupidity"*.

As for the infection rate dropping - it's too early to tell if the peak has passed and it's unlikely. What would be the reason for it when if anything the vaccination rate has stalled? It could be that the good weather has brought people outdoors, it could also be that with the school holidays, lateral flow testing of pupils has stalled and follow up PCR tests used for the statistics have also stopped so we've lost sight of part of the infection. Apparently 20% of users have turned off the NHS app as the reported infection rate has risen. It's also too early to see the full effect of unlocking.


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## StuartDB

Stop whining every old person has been offered both vaccines and are getting ready to get a winter booster. That's better than any "let's hope no-one ever moves and spreads an illness".
Maybe watch 'war of the worlds' we are essentially safe from an alien attack  unless of course they sent it to the earth in the first place 

The problem with applying political emotions against a world wide illness, and comparing the UK who have led the vaccine program across the entire world.. is you just sound bitter and wanted more death and failure so you can point at the Tories.. but there's nothing to point at...! You are now relying on Domonic Cummings to embarrass the Government... when was the last time you quoted the Labour leader ?

Just a sore loser.. ?


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## John-H

Someone's got to counter your constant fawning over Johnson. I do find it difficult to keep up with your error rate however.

I quoted Keir Starmer several times which you've not noticed, there have been several countries ahead of us in vaccinating their population which you keep ignoring despite the charts provided and don't you think your man has caused enough death? I do. That's what I've been complaining about since the pandemic started. You think he's on a winning streak? I'd hate to see what you'd consider failure.


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## StuartDB

I suppose if you want to compare the UK Tory Government and some of their approaches to getting the virus in and out or vaccines.

You could watch
300 rise of the empire - the gods tried democracy for a giggle.
Troy - aphridity (or whatever) wanted to see if love would conquer power or riches
Midsummer's night dream - with Boris as Bottom..

Anyway check out the Score Bored for deaths per Million...
UK are 20th.. which is 1.89% Deaths
Italy are 2.12% Death Rate.. what did that tell you about the incredible action of "Getting the Vaccine's Done!"










PS - why wouldn't I respect the Prime Minister of the UK - he's the most important person in the whole country.. what has Kier Starmer ever done? I know he's a Sir which as mentioned before is a joke as he is a republican so he should have handed it back instead of taking taking taking... who'll trust a person willing to take awards from the Monarchy whilst preaching we should get rid of the Queen in the next breath..  plus he reckons he is 'down with the BLM.. but didn't understand the one decent policy 'defund the police' he said don't be ridiculous, and it is the type of policy he actually would like... incidentally the policy is already being applied my niece unofficially worked for the police for 1 day a week, as the 1st point of call for young people as a community social worker is much more productive (and cheaper) than sending 2 6'3" coppers round their mums flat.


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## John-H

What? I think your error rate has gone up again. Keir Starmer was honored for his legal services, as a human rights lawyer, in 2005 he won the Bar Council's Sydney Elland Goldsmith Award for his outstanding contribution to pro bono work in challenging the death penalty saving many lives, became Director of Public Prosecutions and Head of the Crown Prosecution Service, whereas Boris Johnson is responsible for decisions leading to around 100k unnecessary deaths not to mention ruining the economy and becoming elected on the basis of "getting Brexit done" which is patently not true as the government announced in the commons last week that he wants to renegotiate the Withdrawal Agreement - you know, that "oven ready deal" which was half baked and he's now throwing in the bin. Must be the first time ever a government has thrown it's central election policy in the bin - but he does have a problem with the truth.

Here's a Keir Starmer quote for you:

*Labour MP Dawn Butler 'right to accuse Boris Johnson of lying', says Keir Starmer*










https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/ ... t-24616690

And for something more directly on topic:

*Son says anti-vax mum and ex-nurse who compared medics to Nazis should be prosecuted*








https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/s ... m-24619696


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## StuartDB

But he is a republican?










Also, if we only had 27k deaths 127k -100k then the death rate would be less than dying if you fell out of bed.

0.0397% Death Rate


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## John-H

With the reports of infections rapidly falling over the past week (apart from the last day or so) and comments about reaching _herd immunity_ and i_t's all over because of vaccines but nobody has noticed_ (attributed to an unnamed cabinet minister) I thought I'd apply a little rational analysis.

Firstly as I previously calculated, with the Johnson (B.1.617.2) variant having an R0 = 8 approximate value we would need to have a vaccination effectiveness in the population of 87.5% for herd immunity and given the vaccines are around 90% effective at stopping you becoming infected with Corona virus and halve your chances of passing it on if you become infected, the effect on transmission should be a 20 fold reduction or 95%. However we only have 56.6% of the population fully vaccinated so the 95% becomes 53.7% - so we still have a long way to go through vaccination - we need 92% of the population vaccinated to achieve 87.5% vaccination effectiveness and herd immunity.

However there was a recent ONS survey result that estimated 89.8% (95% credible interval: 88.2% to 91.3%) of the adult population would test positive for antibodies. This is based on a combination of tests for natural immunity from infection (nucleus) and vaccination (spike) random sampling tests. It is the adult population and given 18% of the population are children and not included this adds to the uncertainty. It must also be said that the presence of antibodies does not measure immunity. Particularly with natural immunity reducing over time and there has not been a trial of natural immunity effectiveness but it's likely to be less effective than vaccines.

We would appear not to have reached herd immunity - somewhere between the 53.7% achieved by vaccination and 89.8% x 0.95 = 85.3% from the ONS antibody survey, presuming the effectiveness of vaccines is also achieved by natural infection immunity (which we know is not likely) - but we are getting towards there. Vaccination rates have slowed however but natural infection has been increasing.

So, has the infection rate actually been falling given we are coming out of lockdown? This has caused some confusion given the sharp rate of fall without a corresponding lockdown and the slow rate of vaccination.










The above graph shows the sudden fall of infection R rate and additionally, the slow ramp of double dose full vaccination - clearly the latter has not caused the fall. Speculation has been that (a) the schools breaking up has caused a fall in lateral flow tests and subsequent PCR test follow ups, also (b) deleting of the NHS app because people want to go on holiday and have reacted to the reports of a "pingdemic". There has been a recorded reduction of PCR tests corresponding with the fall which reflects demand.










The above graph shows infections and hospital admissions. In the early days test capacity was low and latterly vaccinations have reduced the ratio of infection to hospitalisation. The position of the peaks shows a delay between infection and hospitalisation of a week or two. Hospitalisations have continued to rise despite the fall in infection.










As shown above deaths have also been rising after a three or four week delay from hospital admissions.

Whilst writing this, the ONS have just reported that their randomised survey results of infection rose by 15% last week compared to the previous one.

All the above indicates that the fall in infections recorded on the government dashboard is misleading. Both hospital admissions and the ONS indicate that infections are still rising. The fall in infections seen is more likely to be due to other factors of human behaviour affecting testing demand. The next week or two will confirm or deny this and will also include the effect of "freedom day" not seen yet in the data.


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## ashfinlayson

50% of the population fully vaccinated, plenty of people have immunity from having the virus John. Sure you remember all the talk of Immunity passports last year? Funny because most of the scientific community said they'd be unethical.


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## John-H

"Plenty" seems not to be the case if infections are rising as by definition R>1.

There seems to be a stick approach as well as carrot. The US are offering $100 and rooms set aside for young people to take selfies here - all a drive to persuade the young and sceptical in the face of falling immunisation rates to achieve that final percentage.

Vaccine passports offer the deprivation of service for the lack of vaccination here and the US are indicating mask and testing compulsion for vaccine refusers.

Some genuinely won't be able to have the vaccine and the 18% children of the population pose a real ethical question.

Once herd immunity is achieved there will be little further need for a community incentive. Vaccine passports for domestic use could (or should) have a limited lifetime.

Everything changes if a vaccine resistant variant arises - which is more likely if infection is allowed to thrive amongst a part vaccinated population.


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## SwissJetPilot

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## John-H

The vaccines are not 100% perfect and it is still possible to catch and pass on COVID-19 but having been vaccinated the chances of doing so are much reduced. Roughly, for AstraZeneca and Pfizer you have 90% protection from catching COVID-19 and 50% reduction in the chances of passing it on once fully vaccinated if you did catch it, so there's a 95% reduction in transmission of the disease through a vaccinated chain of people.

You have even greater protection from serous disease and hospitalisation. If having been vaccinated you do become infected with COVID-19 your symptoms are more likely to be mild and non life threatening, although since we are dealing with probabilities a fatal outcome is still possible.

Much depends on the infectious dose - you are more likely to catch the disease from someone shedding large amounts of the virus and the probability multiples up with the exposure time and other mitigating circumstances like masks and ventilation. Being exposed to a large amount of virus poses a bigger challenge for the immune system.

So you can imagine a large dense public gathering being a more likely situation for breakthrough infection from an influx of visiting virus shedders. That Massachusetts report goes on to say that no conclusions can be drawn about the effectiveness of vaccines from the study - _"data from this report are insufficient to draw conclusions about the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines"_ - because of the large percentage of vaccinated people, detection bias and demographic selection. One could also imagine people are more likely to attend such an event _if_ they have been fully vaccinated and that if everyone was unvaccinated the outbreak could have been 10 times worse. Only five people were hospitalised four having been vaccinated and nobody died.

According to the WHO the Cinavac vaccine prevented symptomatic disease in 51% of those vaccinated and prevented severe COVID-19 and hospitalisation in 100% of the studied population. Source. So not as good as other vaccines but still useful.

Mixing vaccines could well be a useful strategy. There are good reasons why mixing vaccines can be more effective. The vector vaccines for example can build up an immune response to the vector virus carrier making the second dose more likely to be rejected (not that this has been seen yet) - but you may get better results from AstraZeneca followed by Pfizer. It also simplifies distribution and supply logistics. There is no trial data for this approach yet as far as I know.


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## StuartDB

UK are planning on Pfizer boosters for the old and infirm (which I am one of) 
Even Pfizer are linked to clots too.

We need some nuclear medicine to trigger an evolution to be immune from this 'wrath of above' overcrowding control.

I watched a thing about terra-forming Mars the other day... it'll only take 100 years of greenhouse gases being emitted.. that's gonna be our escape route... 
NASA /Jet Propulsion Labatories are not entertaining the idea of it.... not because it sounds crazy but because too many people state we destroyed this world and shouldn't destroy other planets....
We saved this world with intensive farming and deforestation 1000s of years ago to create an ozone layer to keep us warm.

Anyway... we need to live with it... People in the UK don't have to self isolate if they have been pinged by the pointless app after being fully vaccinated.

I do wonder whether AZ, will start charging for variations of the vaccine. Pfizer have made Billions...

Then if the UK can keep the disease around for 10-15 years, we will get over the Brexit Bump...  exporting, or for professional services helping countries getting their own labs and chemicals sorted.. then like Antivirus software we could sell subscriptions, so the franchises get the latest 'vaccines' <- I think I have imagined a conspiracy theory there, which probably already exists...

££££££ €€€€€€ $$$$$$$ ☆☆☆☆☆


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## John-H

That all sounds a bit mixed up Stuart. The ozone layer was formed 600 million years ago and allowed lifeforms to evolve to leave the oceans and occupy the land otherwise they would have been harmed by ultraviolet light. That's a long long time before deforestation and intensive farming.

The app, by the way, is doing its job. More people being pinged is due to rising infections.


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## StuartDB

Yeah, sorry I mean the greenhouse affect by destroying forests.. is it fluro-carbons.


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## SwissJetPilot

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## StuartDB

Why does something start by sounding important, but essentially - if they changed the name to defcon 2 instead of defcon 1 - then they could have saved millions of €€€


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## SwissJetPilot

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## FNChaos

SwissJetPilot said:


> And the latest from the CDC -
> 
> According to Dr. Rochelle Walensky's latest interview on CNN: _"The vaccines neither prevent people from catching COVID nor from spreading COVID. At most, they simply reduce the severity of the symptoms people experience if they do catch COVID._"
> 
> *This begs the question: Why should people get vaccine passports if they are both as contagious and as vulnerable to contagion as their unvaccinated cohorts?*
> 
> If a vaccinated and non-vaccinated person have the same capacity to carry, shed and transmit the virus - with or without symptoms - then what difference does a vaccination passport or vaccination ID make?


As John-H stated a few comment earlier, vaccines are not a guarantee that you won't catch / spreading Covid-19 but they do significantly reduce your chances of becoming infected and, for those unlucky few (that were vaccinated but catch the disease anyway) the reduction in one's 'viral load' is reduced (meaning the chance of spreading the disease is reduced). So while neither group immune to the disease, one group is significantly more likely to get sick.

The vaccines were never 100% effective and Delta makes them less so. This is why it is suggested that people (vaccinated or not) continue to wear masks indoors and avoid crowded situations. It is all about risk reduction (i.e would you rather play Russian Roulette with 1 bullet or 6?)

If we had only reached 'herd immunity' before the Delta mutation arrived we might have gotten control of the disease. Vaccines, masking & social distancing were all part of the strategy to reduce the spread, but too many people declined to get vaccinated, wear masks or abstain from crowded events. Now unfortunately we're constantly one step behind and with infections on the rise again (no matter how minor) more mutations are likely to follow.


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## SwissJetPilot

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## John-H

I don't think It's meaningless. Data from Public Health England indicated (approximately) that being vaccinated reduced your chance of catching it by a factor of 10 (90% effective) and reduced your chances of passing it on by a factor of two (50%) so that's a 20 fold transmission reduction through a vaccinated person which gives a vaccination effectiveness in a population of around 95% if everybody was vaccinated.

There are other arguments against vaccine passports such as creating resentment because of discrimination etc, but the suggestion that vaccination doesn't affect transmission of the virus is clearly wrong and would mean that a herd immunity threshold doesn't exist when we know it does and that's what we are trying to achieve.

Vaccine passports would help reduce transmission by stopping the unvaccinated mixing so much who are more likely to spread the disease. In that respect it's like any other restrictive measure that reduces the probability of spread in a population, like social distancing or face mask etc but when enough people are vaccinated and herd immunity is reached through vaccination the disease will die out (R<1) and all the other preventative measures will not be needed.

I calculated that we need about 87.5% vaccine effectiveness of transmission reduction in the population against the Delta variant and with a 95% effective vaccine we therefore need 92% of the population vaccinated - We are some way off this target at the moment but when you add in natural immunity from people who have survived infection we could be quite close. The ONS released data recently that suggested 90% of UK adults have antibodies - that's from infected and vaccinated combined.

When we reach herd immunity there will be no point in vaccine passports because that extra help at reducing transmission won't be needed in the population. Some countries may require them but epidemiologically it makes more sense when they are protecting a less vaccinated population.


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## SwissJetPilot

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## John-H

No. You'd be putting words in my mouth there. I do not think vaccine passports in a society are a good thing. There are better ways such as explanation of the facts and incentives to get people to vaccinate. I was simply trying to explain the reasoning why unvaccinated people spread the virus more than vaccinated people and therefore the logic or _"point" of vaccine passports_ as you requested. I want condoning the implementation.

The data I have from PHE says that an infected vaccinated person is only half as likely to pass it on than an unvaccinated person. That's one "point" and the other bigger "point" is that a vccinated person is 10 times less likely to catch it in the first place. You multiply the two together to calculate the total probability difference of transmission between vaccinated and unvaccinated people. It is safer to be amongst vaccinated people than the unvaccinated.

As for that Massachusetts report - I did point out that the report itself says there is no inference or conclusion to be made about the effectiveness of vaccines. The reason why so many vaccinated people were infected at the event was simply because most were vaccinated who were exposed. If they hadn't been vaccinated you'd have 10 times as many infected. And who infected them? People coming in from a less vaccinated state. I think that proves the point about transmission.

But no, I don't think vaccine passports are a good idea in a society. There are better ones.


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## FNChaos

SwissJetPilot said:


> The only thing a passport does is create a false sense of security. It prevents nothing.
> 
> Ask yourself; who would you rather sit next to on a bus; an unvaccinated person who's just tested negative in the past 24-hours or someone who was vaccinated several months ago, and hasn't been tested, knowing they can still transmit the virus


Without arguing the merits for / against vaccine passports, I think passports are a natural (and expected) progression in public sentiment.

First, when vaccines were scarce, vaccine passports were considered controversial / unjust and most people were against them since it would allow those with early access special privileges. Once vaccines became widely available this argument became less effective.

Next, 'carrots' were offered (i.e. time off, $$, improved access, etc). For instance, vaccinated people were told they no longer needed to wear masks indoors (restaurants, bars, theaters) as a reward for getting vaccinated, but without a way to verify one's status the unvaccinated could take their masks off too... Compliance was based on an 'honor' system but not everyone was 'honorable' (it became obvious that many were cheating since everyone took off their masks...)

So that led to 'sticks'. That is, pressure to prove your not lying about your vaccine status.

You are right, a unvaccinated person who just tested negative is probably safer to be around than someone who been vaccinated but not tested, but then there is a sense of _'unfairness'_ in all this which (I think anyway) 'nudged' people towards considering passports as proof.

Add to the above a growing resentment against the unvaccinated by those that feel that the unvaccinated created the conditions for the Delta variant to spread (undermining the protection the vaccinated thought they had). This growing resentment has again nudged public support towards passports (and perhaps _'denying access'_ is seen by some as a way to punish those that cheated early on).

I haven't seen any recent polling on the issue, but I suspect that the tide has turned. Anger and frustration has driven more people to modify their position on passports and there is a growing acceptance for / toward them.


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## StuartDB

Just get the vaccine and move on, like the other 2 or 3 billion people so far.

Considering death from covid counts if you had a virus positive test within 28 days - means it potentially makes you infectious for weeks without a vaccine. Most vaccinated people will shrug it off like children do.. my sister's youngest foster child had a temperature for 2 hours, neither of his brothers caught it at all, my sister and brother in law were rough for a couple of days.

I love a vaccine passport, it makes me feel like 'Mrs Bucket'


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## John-H

Well, if everyone gets vaccinated there will be no point in a vaccine passport eventually. The reasoning for it would become self canceling.

We don't have one for smallpox or measles and the suggestion never arose because the deseases have effectively been eradicated with everyone having been vaccinated.

The more anti-vaxers keep refusing to take the vaccine the more likely governments are to introduce vaccine passports. They are their own worst enemy in that respect.


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## SwissJetPilot

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## StuartDB

John-H said:


> The more anti-vaxers keep refusing to take the vaccine the more likely governments are to introduce vaccine passports. They are their own worst enemy in that respect.


This is natural selection isn't it? If people die off who refuse to have a vaccine to save them, anti-vaxers will eventually be removed from the gene pool.. 
its about the most obvious sign of will to survive.. like people who don't look when they cross the road, they won't teach their children to either... and eventually only children from parents who know how to cross a road will be left.


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## FNChaos

SwissJetPilot said:


> It seems the *CDC* had planed ahead to segregated the population. But this shouldn't be a surprise to anyone. America already has a history of rounding up US citizens, denying their constitutional rights, forcibly removing them from their homes and putting them in internment camps.
> 
> Still think this is tin foil hat conspiracy talk? Read on, right off the CDC website


Agreed, the US does have a disgraceful history of interning American citizens during times of strife & war (i.e. Manzanar, et al). That said, I don't interpret what I read from the CDC link as suggesting 'rounding people up' and "segregating the population".

The title references "_Interim Operational Considerations_" in "_Humanitarian Settings_", or in other words, 'temporary plans' to deal with 'displaced individuals' (refugees, natural disaster victims, etc.)

This does not suggest removing people from their homes and placing them into interment camps, instead in considers what to do / how to respond should a pandemic strike a refuge camp or homeless shelter. Obviously, communal kitchens, restrooms, bathing facilities are all high density gathering places (the last thing you need in a pandemic). Planning ahead seems quite reasonable to me.

Anyway, there is another plan on how to deal with the un-vaxed... :twisted:


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## John-H

StuartDB said:


> John-H said:
> 
> 
> 
> The more anti-vaxers keep refusing to take the vaccine the more likely governments are to introduce vaccine passports. They are their own worst enemy in that respect.
> 
> 
> 
> This is natural selection isn't it? If people die off who refuse to have a vaccine to save them, anti-vaxers will eventually be removed from the gene pool..
> its about the most obvious sign of will to survive.. like people who don't look when they cross the road, they won't teach their children to either... and eventually only children from parents who know how to cross a road will be left.
Click to expand...

Three will be only partially true to a small extent given that the death rate is not 100% but more like 1% - so most anti-vaxers will survive infection. In fact most will survive and feel justified in their beliefs despite contributing to the spread of the disease and killing other people. Probably one in five however will suffer long-Covid which may change their minds over time.


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## SwissJetPilot

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## John-H

This'll drive you crackers.... Base rate fallacy explained:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w3ct2dkb


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## StuartDB

John-H said:


> StuartDB said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> John-H said:
> 
> 
> 
> The more anti-vaxers keep refusing to take the vaccine the more likely governments are to introduce vaccine passports. They are their own worst enemy in that respect.
> 
> 
> 
> This is natural selection isn't it? If people die off who refuse to have a vaccine to save them, anti-vaxers will eventually be removed from the gene pool..
> its about the most obvious sign of will to survive.. like people who don't look when they cross the road, they won't teach their children to either... and eventually only children from parents who know how to cross a road will be left.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> Three will be only partially true to a small extent given that the death rate is not 100% but more like 1% - so most anti-vaxers will survive infection. In fact most will survive and feel justified in their beliefs despite contributing to the spread of the disease and killing other people. Probably one in five however will suffer long-Covid which may change their minds over time.
Click to expand...

Yeah, but we still get paper stories - a 40 year old man who has his jabs and his brother and parents didn't have the vaccine and are now dead. Some people will say it serves them right, but it'll be in the survivors head that he didn't know he had it because he was vaccinated, so little or zero symptoms.. and took it to them over Sunday dinner.

Whose fault is it?

Boris?


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## John-H

He did encourage it in.

Have you seen this?


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## StuartDB

You know full well I'm not going to click on your links!!

I expect it'll flash a few times... then I will run down the beech saying 'I am not a number' being chased by a bouncing ball..


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## SwissJetPilot

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## John-H

The pandemic has killed three times as many people than in the blitz.

Whilst this was happening a secret back channel was set up by the government.






Rather than allowing the experienced bulk buying power of NHS procurement to source and obtain needed PPE, public money was diverted to MPs and party members and friends who were allowed to bring their considerable inexperience and fragmented purchasing ability into the effort. At least 47 such diversions were made benefiting the lucky recipients.

Ex-conservative councillor Steve Dechan was awarded a contract for £227 million to procure face masks and gowns. The year before the pandemic his company which sold devices to manage chronic pain recorded significant losses. However, the pandemic was good to him. He recently swapped his modest house in Stroud for a £1.5 million 17th century mansion with 100 acres of land.










He tweeted that he was "chuffed" and had done "very very well" out of the pandemic.

But quality issues regarding the PPE he obtained has meant that only 1 in 400 items could be used meaning that each usable item of PPE has cost the taxpayer the equivalent of £423.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tory ... -zgbmmtn8q

Some are known but the government are refusing to release details of the others.






Thanks to Stuart for indicating that this issue needed highlighting.


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## SwissJetPilot

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## StuartDB

You cannot really compare a pandemic to a war where the only way civilians could get hurt was from the air.. compare it to the Spanish flu.. instead

And also if there was the same amount of bombing over London today, I expect the deaths would be in excess of 1 million. What is the population density nearly 16000 per square km?


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## John-H

That's not the point being made.


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## SwissJetPilot

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## E.L.Wisty

StuartDB said:


> You cannot really compare a pandemic to a war where the only way civilians could get hurt was from the air


https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/world-war-two-casualties-by-country:
More than twice as many civilians died as members of the military. It's estimated that as many as 55 million civilians died during World War II, while military deaths are estimated to be as high as 25 million. While most people died as a direct result of the war, millions of deaths were caused by disease and famine from WWII.


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## SwissJetPilot

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## John-H

The blitz comparison was a separate point just to highlight the severity. Comparison to the Spanish flu is tangential to the point of the post.

The main point of my post was to highlight the corruption and squandering of resources in PPE procurement which should have been left to NHS procurement. Did you see the video? There's a lot more to come out about this - the government are trying to keep identities hidden and there's a court battle to make the details public.


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## SwissJetPilot

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## StuartDB

One wonders if the same focused antiestablishmentarianism would be applied if Tony Blair was at the Helm?

He never hurt anyone did he.... ?  I expect the drone strikes and bombing runs killed 10000 times more innocent children than long covid has given a slight cough to in the UK..

It's a sad world when politics gets to a point of whose the worst instead of whose the best...


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## John-H

One wonders how corrupt the Johnson government would have to go before receiving universal condemnation for their behavior.


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## SwissJetPilot

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## John-H

Mandating Covid testing services for travellers entering and leaving the UK has meant a bonanza for those firms lucky enough to get approved. An investigation by Good Law Project into the process for obtaining that lucrative approval has revealed the apparent existence of another VIP lane. Applicants for approval are asked to say whether they have a 'sponsor' who is a 'Member of Parliament or Minister' and to name them.









https://support-covid-19-testing.dhsc.g ... eclaration

The fact of a Minister 'sponsoring' your application is - or should be - irrelevant to your prospects of gaining authorisation. It is hard to see any reason - beyond a desire to red carpet those lucky enough to be on good terms with Government Ministers. Many of the firms operating in the lucrative PCR testing market have ties to the Conservative Party.

*Rapid Clinics*

Rapid Clinics was incorporated in December 2020 by Dr Ashraf Chohan and has a 'poor' rating on trust pilot with users labelling their service as "terrible" and "unprofessional".

On the other hand, Chohan does have strong ties to the Conservative Party. He is chairman of the 'Conservative Friends of the NHS', a Party donor and a member of the Party's 'treasury team'. He has also been snapped at events with Prime Minister Boris Johnson, Chancellor Rishi Sunak and Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab, and a host of other senior Conservative Party figures.

*Quick Clinics*

Dr Chohan's son Jamal Chohan also operates a Government approved Covid testing firm - Quick Clinics. Like his father's business it also has a 'poor' rating amongst consumers, who have labelled the firm "dishonest and avaricious".

*Qured *

Qured, another Government approved testing company, was last week labelled a "joke" and a "fraud" by UK travellers let down by the firm.

Qured's company name is Health Technologies Ltd and the firm appointed Stephen John Oakly Catlin as a director in April 2020. Catlin is a major Conservative Party donor and has handed the party £450,000 - including £50,000 as recently as February 2021.

Mr Catlin is also a member of the Conservative Party 'Leader's group'' - an elite Conservative dining club whose members get direct access to Boris Johnson.


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## SwissJetPilot

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## StuartDB

I had to correct my daughter, who is actually worried about - if we ever start to 'learn to live with covid' ...?

We are already there... just get on with your life little-un!


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## John-H

*Virus refused entry to the House of Commons so MPs can cram together and dispense with face masks.*










The virus was allowed into the opposition benches on the other side of the house where MPs were forced to keep their face masks on. Anyone speaking was immediately infected:










The politicisation of facemasks is a dangerous thing and could lead to selective evolution of a new politically biased strain of corona virus which favors one party over another.

Conspiracy theorists suggest this has already happened and claim the government has released a new B.1922.N.10 variant which is clearly proven by the fact that the government side don't need to wear face masks.

Speaker Lindsey Hoyle has been called to intervene to protect independent Commons staff as it's not clear how they will be affected.

Boris Johnson said: _*"I will obviously wear a mask in crowded places &#8230; to protect others and as a matter of simple courtesy."*_

Consistency and transparency clearly applies to government policy and the masks they wear.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/ ... s-24797588


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## StuartDB

I cannot make head nor tail of this Anti-Tory rant..

A virus was refused entry???? Get some sleep.. ha


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## StuartDB

Just a quick Reminder that the UK are miles ahead of any reasonably sized country, when it comes to testing - the UK really have proven a real point - we do get life back to normal through testing.


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## John-H

Do you know what irony is?
Do you think it's a bit like goldy or bronzey only made of iron?

The UK are now overtaken by the EU in vaccination. Our infection rate is not decreasing. We still have a problem - not least the evident misunderstanding of some through wishful thinking.


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## StuartDB

You lack positivity, we will always and probably should have Covid-19 flying around, to keep anti-bodies active. The fact that 95% of adults have anti-bodies is amazing.. its what was wanted this time last year.

Lord knows what happens if you overcook a boiled egg..


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## John-H

I'm an objective realist not a blind optimist. It's not good to get infected. That's like saying it's good to keep cutting yourself so you become practiced applying plasters.

The problem is, despite as has been shown by the recent ONS Oxford study that an estimated 93.6% of the adult population in England, 93.2% in Wales, 90.7% in Northern Ireland and 92.5% in Scotland tested positive for COVID-19 antibodies, a recent REACT study indicates that the vaccines are less effective at preventing transmission for the Johnson (B.1.617.2) variant than with the Alpha (B.1.1.7) variant to the extent that a fully vaccinated person is just as likely to pass on an infection as an unvaccinated person and is only 49% less likely to become infected compared to around 90% from the original trial data. This is only a pre-print study but ties in with other recent observations.

This is likely partially due to the observed drop in immunity over time after vaccination as shown in a recent Zoe study:










The vaccines still provide good protection against severe disease and hospitalisation from the Johnson variant but an increase in transmission means that herd immunity might not now be possible to achieve. That in turn means the virus will continue to spread amongst the vaccinated.

There are two important consequences of this: (1) the unvaccinated are going to be at increased risk of contracting COVID-19 to the extent that it's going to be very difficult to avoid, and (2) circulation of infection amongst the vaccinated will make an emergent strain that is resistant to vaccines more likely.


----------



## StuartDB

> ... I'm an objective realist not a blind optimist....


No......






You have not been 'UK Optimistic' since Billy Elliot, which was short lived when the South assumed it was a Comedy, and just asked when they can have another Cream Tea.


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## SwissJetPilot

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## FNChaos

So Boris says lockdowns, not vaccines had a bigger impact on reducing Covid infections, spread and death. I can't take issue with that. Can't catch a virus if your not exposed... and considering many people refused to get vaccinated, the full benefits of a vaccination program were not realized.

But you could also say abstinence from driving will have a bigger impact on reducing automobile accidents when compared to anti-lock brakes and airbags. However if you are going to drive, antilock brakes may reduce your chance of being in an accident and airbags might reduce your chance of being injured.

Now, if you never plan on driving again, lockdowns, I mean abstinence works, but most people want to get out and drive so...

On related tangent, the FDA just granted full approval for Pfizer's Covid-19 vaccine. One more reason for not getting vaccinated removed.


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## John-H

Very true. He also said that back in April when there hadn't been many vaccinations given and was more trying to justify the lockdown measures.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/news.sky.c ... n-12274266

Seems, someone on Twitter is being disingenuous in posting that in August when the vaccines have had a measurable effect.


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## FNChaos

John-H said:


> Seems, someone on Twitter is being disingenuous in posting that in August when the vaccines have had a measurable effect.


+1. 
For anybody who bothered to watch that I would suggest getting medical advice from your doctor, not a conspiracy theorist on Twitter.


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## SwissJetPilot

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## John-H

You got all your answers wrong.

Don't you realise that a vaccine does not necessarily provide 100% efficacy? The MMR vaccine for example is 97% effective against measles and 88% effective against mumps.

When the Covid vaccines were first trialled anything above 50% would have been considered a success, so achieving around 90% was considered a great success. The answers to your questions should be framed against a probability threshold, not an absolute, in which case they would all be the opposite of the seemingly naive and pedantic ones you provided.

No vaccine is perfect. I would have thought you would have known that.

I didn't think you were an anti-vaxer. Have you had the vaccine?


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## SwissJetPilot

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## John-H

But if you get measles after being vaccinated you can still transmit it. You're answers are wrong.

I think it's more about your pedantic interpretation of the definitions you presented as I said. You are ignoring the majority and over emphasising the minority and demanding perfection to be the only interpretation of your definitions - so yes it is the point.

It's quite clear that the Covid-19 vaccines do prevent disease and therefore transmission. It's approximately a 90% efficacy against contraction and 50% onwards transmission reduction with B.1.1.7, which is a 95% reduction in overall transmission in the population. For B.1.617.2 efficacy against contraction is reduced by around 7% and apparently onwards transmission reduction is not reduced but that's still an overall reduction in transmission in the population. There are similar results from different countries although protocols vary so exact comparisons are difficult. Three is also evidence of a reduction in immunity over time once vaccinated.

That's the majority effect, and so as to the _definitions_ of a vaccines ability to "protect", produce "immunity" and not cause "disease" or "complications" the majority answer is *yes* and not *no* as you had it.

Also I have to point out that Thalidomide was a drug taken multiple times through pregnancy as required whereas a vaccine is a "one off". There is no evidence of any long term issues with vaccines that show up years later and there is no effect from the Covid vaccines on pregnancy. If vaccines were to cause a problem you'd see it soon after vaccination and given the huge number given this year without any significant detrimental effect we are not likely to see a problem.


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## SwissJetPilot

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## FNChaos

A couple of quick points.

1.) It is quite clear that vaccines help reduce the spread and severity of infections. 
It shouldn't be a political issue, nonetheless an experiment has played out here in the US where 'Red' (conservative) states are experiencing bigger surges in infections (compared to 'Blue' states) due to the low rates of vaccination within these populations
Additionally, ICU beds in predominately unvaccinated areas are full and the people occupying those beds are almost exclusively unvaccinated.

2.) Protection and immunity are two difference things (i.e. should you find yourself in a gunfight, a bullet-prove vest might provide some protection but not immunity from bullets)

3.) There is something called minimum infective dose (MID). While it is theoretically possible to become infected by a single virus particle, in actuality infections usually don't occur unless you are exposed to hundreds (if not thousands) of particles. Since vaccinated-but-infected persons have been shown to carry a smaller viral load, their ability to infect others is reduced as their production of viral particles has been reduced.

4.) Not all risks are equal. The risks (and complications) associated with the disease are far greater than the risks of complications from vaccines. (i.e. we take precautions against automobile accidents but we don't worry about the odd-chance we could be struck by a meteor).

A drowning man worries about not drowning. Wondering if the water is clean enough for drinking should not get in the way of reaching for a life preserver.


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## John-H

Andrew, I'm sad to see that most of your posts on this subject are aimed against the vaccines. I am starting to form the reluctant and surprising conclusion that you are against them.

You ignore the majority positive effect and emphasise the negative.

Rather than accusing me of BS it's up to you to prove there is a long term negative effect before we consider your suggestions of long term effects seriously. The absence of evidence would not be proof of your claims however there have been many successful pregnancies to term of vaccinated females - which proves there has been no recorded problem. How long do you want to gather more evidence of no problem - five years, 10 years or 20 years before you accept the point?


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## StuartDB

Scotland declared 4000 new infections for the last 24 hours, that is the highest they have had for the 18month of the pandemic and 30% of those people had been double vaccinated - but none of the vaccine companies said you wont catch it, you just hopefully wont get seriously ill and I expect you will have it for a shorter time. but considering only 2 or 3 % of people got ill without a vaccine?


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## John-H

If everyone were vaccinated you would only have vaccinated people testing positive. What are we up to now over 75% of adults fully vaccinated now?


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## StuartDB

Don't know... you complained last week we were falling behind in jabs. someone phoned up at the weekend to suggest my son could have his 2nd jab quicker.. as it was booked when the gap was 12 weeks. Its due in 6 or 7 days..I wonder if they are just trying to make sure young people are having their 2nd jabs....

I got an invite for a flu jab last week is that an over 50s thing or because of other stuff... ?


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## SwissJetPilot

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## John-H

Given that most of your posts about vaccines highlight your concerns about them can you clear up two things for me?

(1) Given all you've said, and without repeating any of it, *on balance* (without caveats), do think our population should be vaccinated with current vaccines or not?

(2) Have you been vaccinated?


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## StuartDB

Weird Huh....

Call at the weekend about 'no need to wait for 2nd Jab, get it earlier' ... (booked for 6th September) Aspy young adult has left house 4 or 5 times in 18 months...
'Co-incidentally' followed 2 days later by 'your appointment has been cancelled.. please pick a new date...' could get it tomorrow morning.. or walk in virtually anywhere.. including Boots (I think) it was a Boots / Llyods etc.. so Saturday afternoon.. I expect its all about metrics.. and they're making space for winter boosters..


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## SwissJetPilot

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## StuartDB

When I tried a mood ring on in an incense shop back in the early 90s.. my girlfriend said - that could be a wedding ring.... it immediately went black.


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## John-H

I received this quite remarkable email:


> "Unimaginable resources" were thrown at Test and Trace. Yet it "cannot point to a measurable difference to the progress of the pandemic". That's what the Conservative-majority Public Accounts Committee found. There was a measurable difference, though, for the owners of the biggest of the pandemic contract winners, Innova. The LA Times reported that they flashed "an Innova bank statement with a $175-million balance as proof of funds". They also went on "a corporate and personal luxury buying spree", including several Gulfstream jets and luxury houses.
> 
> Things are no better when one turns to PPE procurement. The Government's own Counter Fraud Function "assessed a high risk of fraud in the procurement of PPE".
> 
> You might think this is cause for the Government's Anti-Corruption Champion, John Penrose MP, to take a look. His role, after all, is to "scrutinise and challenge the performance of departments and agencies". And the sums involved are no laughing matter. Together, the Test and Trace and PPE programmes cost a staggering £50bn - about the size of the whole annual defence budget.
> 
> But rather than chasing corruption, he seems to spend his time besmirching those who do. A follower of Good Law Project has shared with us an extraordinary letter he received from John Penrose, which contains a number of out-and-out falsehoods.
> 
> The letter says:
> 
> "Since the start of the pandemic [Good Law Project] have brought scores of legal cases against the Government and, so far, they've failed to make almost all of them stand up in court."
> That's just not true. At the time of writing, we have had only two substantive court decisions and have won both of them. And, of the 14 cases we have issued since the start of 2020, the Court has granted permission in 11 at the first time of asking. Official statistics (beginning in 2010) show that this happens in only 17% of all judicial reviews. Good Law Project's success rate is 78%.
> 
> It also says:
> 
> "In both cases, the judge said that their broader allegations of dishonesty or actual corruption (i.e. anything more than failing to follow the bureaucratic process precisely enough) weren't proven."
> That is also false. In none of the decided cases did we allege dishonesty or corruption. So, his statement that judges dismissed our allegations of dishonesty or actual corruption is a pure and false figment of his imagination.
> 
> Is Penrose indifferent to the truth of what he says? Or is our notional anti-corruption champion telling out-and-out lies to try and smear those doing the job he should be doing?
> 
> Penrose goes on to say:
> 
> "I should probably add that a couple of their cases are against appointments at NHS Test & Trace, where my wife worked as a senior volunteer."
> 
> That's not entirely frank either.
> 
> The truth is that the person in charge of the programme that delivered unimaginable wealth to Innova's owners but made no measurable difference to the progress of the pandemic is Baroness Dido Harding. And John Penrose is her husband. Yep, you read it right: he's charged with scrutinising whether there was corruption in the programme headed up by his own wife. It's laughable - but it's no laughing matter.
> 
> In fact, Good Law Project is bringing a judicial review - for which a court has granted us permission - of the decision to put Harding to lead the £37bn Test and Trace fiasco.
> 
> What does all of this add up to?
> 
> We wouldn't normally respond to baseless slurs from a Parliamentarian. But what makes Penrose's letter significant is that the anti-corruption champion has a responsibility to "engage with external stakeholders, including&#8230; civil society organisations".
> 
> There is likely to be - the Government itself has acknowledged - fraud in pandemic procurement. And despite being a small not-for-profit without the powers of a law enforcement agency, Good Law Project has uncovered two highly suspicious cases involving contracts worth hundreds of millions of pounds: one involving Priti Patel and another involving vast contracts awarded to a jeweller based in Florida.
> 
> Penrose's letter tells the truth about his role. He's not an anti-corruption champion - he's a man speaking falsehoods to try and stop those working to uncover it.
> 
> Thank you,
> 
> Jo Maugham - Good Law Project


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## John-H

The new Mu variant being monitored by the WHO which is showing signs of vaccine evasion.

https://www.euronews.com/2021/09/02/wha ... red-by-who


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## StuartDB

It's a thing we will always have to live with it, it's not really news anymore. I suppose we'll learn if politicians die or if some evidence of foul play simmers to the surface.


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## Surrey

StuartDB said:


> It's a thing we will always have to live with it, it's not really news anymore. I suppose we'll learn if politicians die or if some evidence of foul play simmers to the surface.


Agreed. It's a virus with a 99.91% (or whatever it is) survivability rate, time to move on and start focusing on some real issues.. like fixing bloody potholes.


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## StuartDB

It's a really good point. There are a few 'hangers on' my wife included, she still says 'this is bad' after reading worldometers coronavirus.. I just remind her she rarely leaves the house and has been vaccinated.

I think the biggest news to the UK Government, ignored the scientific advice and decided to make sure Labour had nothing to whine and whinge about and stated 12-15 year old kids would be vaccinated. The most interesting issue the scientific bods brought up was 
' vaccination of children, should not be used as a way to protect adults that didn't want to get themselves vaccinated '
This may be a thing in history where children suffer and are used to protect adults who disagree with vaccinations. 
But I think that enough entertainment and travel organisations are wanting to see covid passports, that most adults mixing with others will need to get vaccinated.

I really don't agree with any kind of belittling, abuse, bullying, mockery, science shouted nonsense etc as a way to encourage people to get vaccinated. One of my son-in-laws has not been vaccinated yet, and my mother-in-law lost her head visiting them and their new baby, that's not the way.. it really isn't... remember why we have Brexit? Political big-heads telling the UK ' Only stupid People will vote for Brexit! '
So a 65 year old woman losing her head at her Grandchild and her man in front of her 6 month old great-grandchild.. will achieve absolutely nothing..

It's like when a new neighbour asked if we are going to take down our Christmas decorations... I said if I take them down after you have asked me... next me you'll want me to go on a murder-spree


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## John-H

Do you both no longer wear masks in the shops? I've noticed now maybe a third to a half of people not wearing masks in supermarkets. Hardly anybody in DIY stores. If people were wearing masks for personal protection that's their own risk if they no longer wear them but if they were wearing them for the protection of others and now no longer do, then that community care is being lost. Either way it's going to encourage spread of the disease. It also makes it more risky for the vulnerable who now feel trapped at home again. With the schools also having gone back too, who are largely unvaccinated and with little done to protect classrooms, I can only see cases rising.

If you look at cases you can see the R rate is still over one despite 65% of the population being fully vaccinated (or 35% still unprotected and we know now that the vaccinated, although protected from severe disease can still catch it and once infected are just as likely as the unvaccinated to pass it on - possibly more so if they think they are invincible and have abandoned mask wearing.










Cases are now way higher than when SAGE called for a second lockdown or even six and a half weeks later when the government introduced it but hospital admissions are in ratio far less than then then. If you look at this graph where I've scaled the hospital admissions to match the cases for second and third lockdown peaks you can see there's a divergence now with hospital admissions now around 2.7 times less or 37% of what they were - that's the effect of the vaccines.










A similar effect is seen when comparing hospital admissions to deaths although this is not as marked. The people now being admitted are a younger cohort and less likely to die. However deaths are above the level of the second lockdown SAGE call as are infections and hospital admissions above the second lockdown start - hospitals are still stretched.










So with a 2.7 factor on admissions and perhaps a factor of 2 reduction in death once admitted the overall deaths after infection have been reduced by a factor of 2.7 x 2 = 5.4 (approximate). So original death rate was 1% it's now 0.18% (very approximate).

However there still seems to be a 1 in 5 to 1 in 7 chance of developing long-covid after catching covid if unvaccinated which can be debilitating and applies across all age groups. Death isn't the only important factor. Being vaccinated reduces your chance of catching it but your chance of catching it also depends on the precautions you and others take and how much infection is around : 1 in 70 estimated by the ONS - so someone in the supermarket is likely infected and their breath lingers.


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## Surrey

John H, you seem a bit obsessed with this? It's a virus which we have to live with. I'm not living in fear anymore, I've been double jabbed, time to start living life again.

I wish we'd spend this much time, effort and money on curing cancer, mental health and feeding starving kids.

It's utter madness.


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## StuartDB

Hi John, I do still wear them - just got back from the large (ish) Tesco and saw one member of staff wearing one whilst stacking shelves, and about 3 other people. It's at the stage now where people wearing masks are outcasts.


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## John-H

Good for you Stuart.

I know some are impatient to return to normal and the phrase "learn to live with the virus" is a common mantra but not everyone is vaccinated and we are not at the stage we are with the common cold yet whilst it is evolving along with our response to it - that will take far longer to settle. No doubt we will get there eventually.

We're it not for lock downs and vaccines, masks etc Covid-19 would have caused far more deaths than cancer. In 2017 there were 179,856 cancer deaths most of which we couldn't do much about and the figure is more constant year to year because it's not an infectuous disease that can grow exponentially.

In the mean time:

*"Covid cases 'set to soar in autumn with people returning to schools and offices'*

Fit boy, 11, who loved swimming and dancing now needs wheelchair due to Long Covid


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## Surrey

John-H said:


> Good for you Stuart.
> 
> I know some are impatient to return to normal and the phrase "learn to live with the virus" is a common mantra but not everyone is vaccinated and we are not at the stage we are with the common cold yet whilst it is evolving along with our response to it - that will take far longer to settle. No doubt we will get there eventually.
> 
> We're it not for lock downs and vaccines, masks etc Covid-19 would have caused far more deaths than cancer. In 2017 there were 179,856 cancer deaths most of which we couldn't do much about and the figure is more constant year to year because it's not an infectuous disease that can grow exponentially.
> 
> In the mean time:
> 
> *"Covid cases 'set to soar in autumn with people returning to schools and offices'*
> 
> Fit boy, 11, who loved swimming and dancing now needs wheelchair due to Long Covid


Are you seriously comparing covid 19's fatality rate to cancer's? I've seen it all now, that is utterly disgraceful.


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## StuartDB

John-H said:


> Good for you Stuart.
> 
> I know some are impatient to return to normal and the phrase "learn to live with the virus" is a common mantra but not everyone is vaccinated and we are not at the stage we are with the common cold yet whilst it is evolving along with our response to it - that will take far longer to settle. No doubt we will get there eventually.
> 
> We're it not for lock downs and vaccines, masks etc Covid-19 would have caused far more deaths than cancer. In 2017 there were 179,856 cancer deaths most of which we couldn't do much about and the figure is more constant year to year because it's not an infectuous disease that can grow exponentially.
> 
> In the mean time:
> 
> *"Covid cases 'set to soar in autumn with people returning to schools and offices'*
> 
> Fit boy, 11, who loved swimming and dancing now needs wheelchair due to Long Covid


There's always going to be some odd things happening, but maybe he would have died in a horse riding accident if not for the original lock-down. 
My previous next door neighbour laughed at me when I said I can walk without crutches now - 18 months after being hit by a people carrier and about 30 operations later .. he said but you can't do this and jumped up and down stamping on the floor - 6 months later he had MS and is now only just able to walk short distances without a frame - his wife still blames that comment and demonstration as the reason he got MS (they are not religious but she wont have him say things like that anymore).

I think my point is we cannot save them all  but for the sake of one child we cannot possibly give up the lives of 68 million people... a child had an insurance value of about 50K - 250K - 68,000,000 people create an awful lot of GDP needed by this amazing British nation - (sadly it's true) much more important than one child.. you might find the child will go to GOSH and they'll give him some chemotherapy and that will resolve this oddity - it resets the nerves and sometimes resolves unknown paralysis.

Interesting, you are using extreme Red Tops as your basis of facts - they were the same paper saying keep the TB alpaca alive and save Charlie Guard <-- both absolute lunacy .


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## Spandex

Surrey said:


> Are you seriously comparing covid 19's fatality rate to cancer's? I've seen it all now, that is utterly disgraceful.


At its peak, coronavirus was responsible for almost twice as many deaths per day in Europe, compared to cancer.

https://newseu.cgtn.com/news/2020-09-26 ... index.html

And that's treating cancer as a whole. 'Cancer' is actually a catch all for a huge number of unique diseases, so if you actually compare covid to individual cancers (and why wouldn't you.. we don't include every single coronavirus in the stats for covid-19), the picture gets even worse.

Obviously things have improved significantly since the peak, but anyone who believes that covid isn't an extremely serious disease is a fool. Oh, sorry Stuart. I forgot we're not supposed to tell fools that they're fools in case it encourages them to carry on being fools.


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## StuartDB

If the same 0.2% who die from covid are also the fools then there won't be any fools left 

People who die from old age die from cancer. It is a natural degradation of cells no longer able to replicate.. the fact more people are dying from cancer is a sign we (humans) are able to keep people alive long enough to detect cancer before they die...

more people are not dying from cancer... more people are living long enough to die from cancer...

More men die 'with' prostate cancer than 'from' prostate cancer.

It actually wouldn't surprise me if (in 200 years) humans conceived by a parent with cancer will eventually have some form of protection from said cancer via evolution (natural or bio-hacked)

But bringing 'cancer' into a conversation about a virus has already been rejected / poo-pooed / laughed at / shunned.. the nearest worthwhile comparison is the Spanish Flu...

You cannot just keep bullying people off of a thread until the only people left are those who agree with the ludicrous narrative of anyone with a 3d chart.

The fact of the matter is... People have moved on, if we have another lock down, that's not my fault, your fault, sid-snot's fault - and it would have happened with or without Tory, Labour, EU, Trump, Biden, Face masks, Cancer or the Premier League.

You either live your own life or shiver and shudder your life away.

Just 68 more months and we will be clear of this 25th new wave...


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## Spandex

StuartDB said:


> The fact of the matter is... People have moved on, if we have another lock down, that's not my fault, your fault, sid-snot's fault - and it would have happened with or without Tory, Labour, EU, Trump, Biden, Face masks, Cancer or the Premier League.
> 
> You either live your own life or shiver and shudder your life away.
> 
> Just 68 more months and we will be clear of this 25th new wave...


People have moved on? Covid isn't an attention seeking toddler. It's not going to stop impacting us just because we ignore it.

Yes, covid is probably with us for a very long time, but unfortunately the intellectually challenged amongst us have taken that to mean that we might as well just go back to normal. Some people just don't seem to grasp that the world has constantly changed and will continue to change, so attempting to 'go back to normal' is a fairly moronic concept. The situation that we live in has changed, and that will change how we live.


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## StuartDB

We have been told to 'cautiously return to normal'.

Vulnerable will hopefully look after themselves like adults should do... eg if you are on cancer meds, you tend to not kiss people with flu or pet chickens and goats.

Think of Covid-19 as essentially HIV... 98% of people were terrified for a couple of years back in the early 80s .. and they are not now. Western Europeans actually have quite a good natural immunity against HIV in any case(but that's a different thread) just like our children, grand-children, great-grand-children will have against Coronaviruses. I expect there's more young people affected with mental health issues introduced because of covid than from covid.. which is a shame.. I had 'teachers strikes' stopping after school sports etc.. and the kids today have been told if they hold someone's hand at school they will kill their nan.


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## Spandex

StuartDB said:


> We have been told to 'cautiously return to normal'.


Better do as you're told then. Don't forget to doff your cap to your betters.



StuartDB said:


> Western Europeans actually have quite a good natural immunity against HIV in any case.


No they don't.


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## Surrey

Spandex said:


> Surrey said:
> 
> 
> 
> Are you seriously comparing covid 19's fatality rate to cancer's? I've seen it all now, that is utterly disgraceful.
> 
> 
> 
> At its peak, coronavirus was responsible for almost twice as many deaths per day in Europe, compared to cancer.
> 
> https://newseu.cgtn.com/news/2020-09-26 ... index.html
> 
> And that's treating cancer as a whole. 'Cancer' is actually a catch all for a huge number of unique diseases, so if you actually compare covid to individual cancers (and why wouldn't you.. we don't include every single coronavirus in the stats for covid-19), the picture gets even worse.
> 
> Obviously things have improved significantly since the peak, but anyone who believes that covid isn't an extremely serious disease is a fool. Oh, sorry Stuart. I forgot we're not supposed to tell fools that they're fools in case it encourages them to carry on being fools.
Click to expand...

Spandex

CGTN? Really? This media outlet is owned by CCTV (China Central Television), which is controlled by the Propaganda Department of the Chinese Communist Party.

"Fool" and "intellectually challenged" spring to mind.....


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## Spandex

Surrey said:


> "Fool" and "intellectually challenged" spring to mind.....


Coming from the man who thinks we should move on from worrying about Covid and focus on "fixing potholes", that's rich.

Fair enough, not the best source. But as I said, cancer is a catch-all for a large number of unique diseases. How do you think the stats look if you compare covid to any one of them? The point is, covid is still extremely serious. More serious even than, and I don't say this lightly, pot holes. :wink:

<edit> Not a lot of comparisons around, but this fact check from USA Today of a claim that 'the cancer death rate was three times that of covid' concluded that, for a period in the US, covid killed almost as many people as all cancers combined.

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/fact ... 991452001/

Whichever way you look at it, your fake outrage at the comparison between cancer and covid is unconvincing.


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## StuartDB

Spandex said:


> .......
> 
> 
> StuartDB said:
> 
> 
> 
> Western Europeans actually have quite a good natural immunity against HIV in any case.
> 
> 
> 
> No they don't.
Click to expand...

Come on dude.. I wouldn't have said it if it wasn't true...

The plague immunity folks survived and made babies... (it was a benefit of being the worse impacted in the first place)










You really quickly jumped to a conclusion, it highlights a lack of wider considerations, it's a failing.. you wouldn't work well with others in a team. Singlemindedness doesn't feel like a word.. but that's what you are demonstrating.. you close off other opinions and push a narrative... do you sometimes stutter? I'm asking for a friend.

Next you're going to say alcohol doesn't effect Far-Eastern people more than western Europeans! Which is evolution 

We've all been there dude.. its part of growing up


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## Spandex

StuartDB said:


> Come on dude.. I wouldn't have said it if it wasn't true...


Yes you would. You can't stop yourself.

" The CCR5-delta 32 mutation in a sense locks "the door" which prevents HIV from entering into the cell. 1% of people descended from Northern Europeans, particularly Swedes, are immune to HIV infection. These lucky people are homozygous carriers of the mutated gene - meaning that they inherited a copy from both of their parents. Another 10 -15% (the number has even suggested to be 18%) of people with European heritage inherited one copy of the gene. *Just one copy of the mutation does not prevent against infection*. It does however reduce carrier's chances of infection and delays the progress of AIDS."

https://www.nature.com/scitable/blog/vi ... _mutation/

You see, ironically, you really quickly jumped to a conclusion. According to some idiot on the internet, that highlights a lack of wider considerations. It's a failing. Apparently (although I have no idea why this is relevant), you wouldn't work well with others in a team.



StuartDB said:


> I'm asking for a friend.


Now I know you're lying&#8230;


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## Surrey

.


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## Spandex

Well, at least your attempt to pretend you were joking about potholes is funnier than your joke about potholes.


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## StuartDB

Spandex said:


> StuartDB said:
> 
> 
> 
> Come on dude.. I wouldn't have said it if it wasn't true...
> 
> 
> 
> Yes you would. You can't stop yourself.
> 
> " The CCR5-delta 32 mutation in a sense locks "the door" which prevents HIV from entering into the cell. 1% of people descended from Northern Europeans, particularly Swedes, are immune to HIV infection. These lucky people are homozygous carriers of the mutated gene - meaning that they inherited a copy from both of their parents. Another 10 -15% (the number has even suggested to be 18%) of people with European heritage inherited one copy of the gene. *Just one copy of the mutation does not prevent against infection*. It does however reduce carrier's chances of infection and delays the progress of AIDS."
> 
> https://www.nature.com/scitable/blog/vi ... _mutation/
> 
> You see, ironically, you really quickly jumped to a conclusion. According to some idiot on the internet, that highlights a lack of wider considerations. It's a failing. Apparently (although I have no idea why this is relevant), you wouldn't work well with others in a team.
> 
> 
> 
> StuartDB said:
> 
> 
> 
> I'm asking for a friend.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> Now I know you're lying&#8230;
Click to expand...

lol... so you are agreeing with me at the same time as pretending you don't agree with me. but still haven't admitted you were wrong... not even an effort at trying to twist how your incorrect response could be twisted to being right.  

it's embarrassing... just say - "oh thanks for the information I didn't know about that... every days a learning day"










looks like western europe have some forms of immunity to Hepatitis C too... probably why so many people share needles in Europe   thank you Black Death - you have saved a 100 people  

I didn't wear a mask today at the pub, supermarket and corner shop - mainly because I took my wife to the GPs the other day and she used my last 2 new ones, when I seem to manage to make a pack of 10 masks last 9 months - I have only bought 2 packs since the beginning of cov-id   I stopped using reusable masks after a few weeks because they get moist, then dirty and gave me a throat infection. the only people I saw wearing a mask were a learner driver and the instructor.


----------



## Spandex

StuartDB said:


> lol... so you are agreeing with me at the same time as pretending you don't agree with me.


You said, "Western Europeans actually have quite a good natural immunity against HIV in any case." They don't. 1% of them have a 'natural immunity' and up to 18% of them have an increased resistance to HIV. Conflating those two things is dumb and doubling down to save face isn't going to help.

What you did was you read the completely misleading and inaccurate headline of that Science Daily article, and assumed they were talking about immunity, rather than an increased resistance. In fact, the University of Liverpool study it references doesn't really talk about immunity. It's actually a paper putting forward the hypothesis that the mutation is a result of the plague - a hypothesis that isn't widely accepted yet. People also believe it may have been smallpox which caused the mutation to become so prevalent, and others believe it predates both.

But either way, it's not about immunity. Having one copy of the gene doesn't give you immunity.



StuartDB said:


> I didn't wear a mask today at the pub, supermarket and corner shop - mainly because I took my wife to the GPs the other day and she used my last 2 new ones, when I seem to manage to make a pack of 10 masks last 9 months - I have only bought 2 packs since the beginning of cov-id   I stopped using reusable masks after a few weeks because they get moist, then dirty and gave me a throat infection. the only people I saw wearing a mask were a learner driver and the instructor.


Great story, old fella...


----------



## StuartDB

You and John-H should both do a "What's my IP" and post up the last 3 digits 

#clone


----------



## Spandex

StuartDB said:


> You and John-H should both do a "What's my IP" and post up the last 3 digits
> 
> #clone


Nah, John is much more polite than me. When you're being an idiot, he humours you.

Ignoring the fact that you can't even manage the simple task of replying to a conversation in the right thread, let's just look at this little gem:


StuartDB said:


> I didn't actually read anything - I watched Mankind and 101 of Earth History


So basically, you didn't know what you were talking about, but assumed you must know more than anyone else because you watched a bit of tv. You're a walking Dunning Kruger demonstration.

I know it must be embarrassing admitting you were wrong... just say - "oh thanks for the information I didn't know about that... every days a learning day" :wink:

Maybe you need to stop chain-watching Netflix, prime, Disney+, whatever and actually spend some time learning stuff. Or maybe just try getting out the house for a bit. At the very least, it would give your family a break.


----------



## StuartDB

Stop cr-cr-crying son.. x
You're embarrassing yourself.. 

Listen , ts a simple question with a yes or no answer.

Did the plague / black death result in an above average natural immunity to HIV or not.

YES = YES
NO = NO

it's not a trick question.


----------



## Spandex

Lol&#8230; it's not a trick question, it's a dumb question.

1. WTF is 'average natural immunity to HIV'? The CCR5-delta 32 gene, when inherited from both parents, makes a person approximately 100 times less likely to catch HIV than if they didn't have that gene. When inherited from one parent, it's shown to slow the progression of the disease once infected. It's not even conclusively shown to reduce the likelihood of infection at all. Some studies have shown a small effect, while others have shown no increased resistance at all.

2. There is no conclusive evidence it was the 'black death' that created the prevalence of this gene. There are a number of reasons why it's unlikely, but no one knows for sure either way.

And yes, I'm aware that me not answering your stupid question with a simple yes or no will have you mashing your paws together with glee and, like a toddler triumphantly displaying the contents of his potty, you're going to treat this as some kind of victory, but there we are.

Though let's not lose sight of the fact that you didn't mention anything about "above average immunity", you said "Western Europeans actually have quite a good natural immunity". They still don't.


----------



## StuartDB

Clicks to Mute ..
UR teh crazeee N00b

You dragged out 2-3 characters into a pointless essay. I said at the beginning this would need is own thread.

Just remember you're just a person on a car forum..


----------



## Spandex

StuartDB said:


> You dragged out 2-3 characters into a pointless essay. I said at the beginning this would need is own thread.


Ok, if you insist... Strictly speaking, the answer to your question is 'no', although that's mainly because you phrased it so badly there is literally no other logical way to answer it, without making a load of assumptions about what you might have actually meant. *The plague/black death/whatever resulted in an exactly average natural immunity*. Ask a stupid question, get a stupid answer.

This doesn't need it's own thread. We've covered everything already. I have no expectation of you admitting you're wrong and I don't need you to. Anyone reading this will be able to see everything they need in order to form an opinion, or to look into it further.


----------



## leopard

Lol. The narcissist tard is back :lol:


----------



## StuartDB

still digressing - but.... you can actually edit out CCR5 using CRISPR to be immune to HIV - Chinese doctors have successfully made this adjustment, although I think on an embryo rather than an adult.

Is this how RNA vaccines work by giving someone the DNA adjustment for recognising similar shapes to covid and remove them with bacteria? rather than AZ which give a dead virus and let persons the immune system make the change.

I can see how sci-fi films have spies, storing information in someone's DNA - there must be loads spare   - it would have been a better start to star wars a new hope, than the video.


----------



## StuartDB

Spandex said:


> StuartDB said:
> 
> 
> 
> You dragged out 2-3 characters into a pointless essay. I said at the beginning this would need is own thread.
> 
> 
> 
> Ok, if you insist... Strictly speaking, the answer to your question is 'no', although that's mainly because you phrased it so badly there is literally no other logical way to answer it, without making a load of assumptions about what you might have actually meant. *The plague/black death/whatever resulted in an exactly average natural immunity*. Ask a stupid question, get a stupid answer.
> 
> This doesn't need it's own thread. We've covered everything already. I have no expectation of you admitting you're wrong and I don't need you to. Anyone reading this will be able to see everything they need in order to form an opinion, or to look into it further.
Click to expand...

Another equivalence to the HIV immunity western europe reasons, is some countries have a high sickle-cell population for the exact same reason - these areas also have a high percentage of malaria mosquitos and people with sickle-cell are immune to Malaria - and some people have one sickle-cell gene and a normal gene mutation - these people do not suffer from sickle cell and are also immune to Malaria.

just in case you don't understand the above paragraph - people without sickle-cell die from Malaria and the Sickle-cell people create new children who also have sickle-cell and are also immune to malaria etc


----------



## Spandex

StuartDB said:


> still digressing - but.... you can actually edit out CCR5 using CRISPR to be immune to HIV - Chinese doctors have successfully made this adjustment, although I think on an embryo rather than an adult.
> 
> Is this how RNA vaccines work by giving someone the DNA adjustment for recognising similar shapes to covid and remove them with bacteria? rather than AZ which give a dead virus and let persons the immune system make the change.


The Chinese doctor in question (who is now in prison for that huge breach of medical ethics, and the law) edited the embryo of one twin. He rendered the CCR5 gene inoperable, which in theory should give the girl increased resistance to HIV, although he did it in a very different way to the mutation which is responsible for the natural resistance. So, no one is completely sure what impact that may have on the health of the girl. There is also the possibility that the edit was done after the single cell stage, which would mean she may have a mixture of normal and crippled CCR5 genes, giving her no increased resistance at all.

RNA doesn't affect DNA. At a basic level, DNA makes RNA and RNA makes proteins. It's a one way process, which is why all the people who were claiming the RNA based vaccines could/would alter their DNA were completely wrong.



StuartDB said:


> just in case you don't understand the above paragraph - people without sickle-cell die from Malaria and the Sickle-cell people create new children who also have sickle-cell and are also immune to malaria etc


Stuart discovers natural selection&#8230;


----------



## StuartDB

It clearly doesn't work properly


----------



## RobUK

I thought this might interest you all, I believe corona is a single strand enveloped RNA virus as is the common flu virus, they both enter the cell by endocytosis and both require an acid environment within the lysosome, Quinine appears to higher the ph of the lysosomes from acid to alkaline, this stops the progression of the virus and the immune system then destroys the infected cell.

Medical record. v.97 (1920). 









The flu : a brief history of influenza in U.S. America, Europe, Hawaii : Mouritz, A. A. St. M. (Arthur Albert St. M.), 1861-1943 : Free Download, Borrow, and Streaming : Internet Archive


Printer from verso of t.p



archive.org


----------



## StuartDB

so... are you saying, if we all eat "middle class jam" we will beat back Covid-19?


----------



## StuartDB

I wonder if the same people complaining about the weak government (policing road blockages etc) will also complain that savid javin is too harsh telling carers if they don't get vaccinated... they need to change their career! I also wonder if that includes caring for young people and also caring for loved ones (as you still get paid for that)


----------



## delmar.atlas




----------



## delmar.atlas




----------



## RobUK

Spandex said:


> RNA doesn't affect DNA. At a basic level, DNA makes RNA and RNA makes proteins. It's a one way process, which is why all the people who were claiming the RNA based vaccines could/would alter their DNA were completely wrong.


Read the article, don`t be mislead by fact checkers.








Scientific Study confirms Pfizer’s COVID Vaccine alters Human DNA


A Swedish study has demonstrated and confirmed that the mRNA in the Pfizer/BioNTech Covid injections infiltrates cells and transcribes its message onto human DNA within 6 hours, altering our own DN…




dailyexpose.uk





Anti-malaria drug chloroquine is highly effective in treating avian influenza A H5N1 virus infection in an animal model Anti-malaria drug chloroquine is highly effective in treating avian influenza A H5N1 virus infection in an animal model.

Chloroquine is a potent inhibitor of SARS coronavirus infection and spread Chloroquine is a potent inhibitor of SARS coronavirus infection and spread

Endocytosis and the RNA viral acidic step is the key to this.

Do mask give benefit or cause harm.

Is a mask necessary in the operating theatre? Is-a-mask-necessary-in-the-operating-theatre 









More than 170 Comparative Studies and Articles on Mask Ineffectiveness and Harms ⋆ Brownstone Institute


Do masks work? Current evidence implies face masks can be actually harmful. The body of evidence indicates masks are largely ineffective.




brownstone.org


----------



## delmar.atlas

I have a co worker, who is being forced out of the military because he's an anti vaxxer, who believes all of the hoax data on fakebook. His entire family is anti vaxx. His younger brother is currently fighting for his life in the ICU, my co worker has requested compassionate leave in order to be by his brothers side. 

People can claim all sorts of things, but the facts are clear, get vaxxed and covid19 feels like a common cold. Don't get vaxxed and you'll lose hair, deal with a severely deteriorated immune system or/& potentially pass away.

I lost my grandmother to Covid19, I've lost coworkers to the virus, and I hope that my current coworker won't regret the anti vaxx choices his entire family and he decided to take.

Can this thread be locked for fear of spreading misinformation?


----------



## RobUK

delmar.atlas said:


> I have a co worker, who is being forced out of the military because he's an anti vaxxer, who believes all of the hoax data on fakebook. His entire family is anti vaxx. His younger brother is currently fighting for his life in the ICU, my co worker has requested compassionate leave in order to be by his brothers side.
> 
> People can claim all sorts of things, but the facts are clear, get vaxxed and covid19 feels like a common cold. Don't get vaxxed and you'll lose hair, deal with a severely deteriorated immune system or/& potentially pass away.
> 
> I lost my grandmother to Covid19, I've lost coworkers to the virus, and I hope that my current coworker won't regret the anti vaxx choices his entire family and he decided to take.
> 
> Can this thread be locked for fear of spreading misinformation?


"I lost my grandmother to Covid19, I've lost coworkers to the virus",QUOTE

They had no treatment prior to hospital yes,
Search Doctor Zelenko protocol, my wife and I used that protocol when we contracted Covid flu in early January 2021, we are 78 and 81 respectively, I have a serious heart condition after a cardiac arrest 3 years ago, we had 3 days in bed and took another 2/3 weeks to recover. We are not jabbed and I have never worn a mask.
The 2 links I put up are from the NIH in the US so no misinformation there.
This is nothing to do with so called antivaxxers, vaccination is a life choice you obviousely took it I did not.
Quinine was used successfully by many doctors in 1918, Hydroxychloroquine has been used by many doctors successfully in 2020/22, these molecules are antivirals and are most effective when used within the first 48 hours after symptoms occur as their aim is to stop viral replication as early as possible. Quinine was used against influenza well into the 1950`s.
There always was a treatment for covid but there was no profit in it.

Chloroquine could be used for the treatment of filoviral infections and other viral infections that emerge or emerged from viruses requiring an acidic pH for infectivity - PMC (nih.gov)









Different pH requirements are associated with divergent inhibitory effects of chloroquine on human and avian influenza A viruses


Chloroquine is a 4-aminoquinoline previously used in malaria therapy and now becoming an emerging investigational antiviral drug due to its broad spectrum of antiviral activities. To explore whether the low pH-dependency of influenza A viruses might affect ...




www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov





Infectious Cell Entry Mechanism of Influenza Virus - PMC (nih.gov)

Quinine Inhibits Infection of Human Cell Lines with SARS-CoV-2 - PMC (nih.gov)


----------



## RobUK

.


----------



## delmar.atlas

RobUK said:


> "I lost my grandmother to Covid19, I've lost coworkers to the virus",QUOTE
> 
> They had no treatment prior to hospital yes,
> Search Doctor Zelenko protocol, my wife and I used that protocol when we contracted Covid flu in early January 2021, we are 78 and 81 respectively, I have a serious heart condition after a cardiac arrest 3 years ago, we had 3 days in bed and took another 2/3 weeks to recover. We are not jabbed and I have never worn a mask.
> The 2 links I put up are from the NIH in the US so no misinformation there.
> This is nothing to do with so called antivaxxers, vaccination is a life choice you obviousely took it I did not.
> Quinine was used successfully by many doctors in 1918, Hydroxychloroquine has been used by many doctors successfully in 2020/22, these molecules are antivirals and are most effect when used within the first 48 hours after symptoms occur as their aim is to stop viral replication as early as possible. Quinine was used against influenza well into the 1950`s.
> There always was a treatment for covid but there was no profit in it.



Sir, 

In the world of statistics there are outliers, that being known, outliers do not represent the mean and therefore are not used to action trials/tests or further action.

If a thousand people jumped out of a plane without a parachute but seven were able to survive the impact for whatever reason, I would not in any way state that jumping out of an airplane without a parachute is a wise idea all the while ignoring the high mortality rate and focusing on outliers. 

I will excuse myself from this thread.


----------



## Spandex

RobUK said:


> Read the article, don`t be mislead by fact checkers.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Scientific Study confirms Pfizer’s COVID Vaccine alters Human DNA
> 
> 
> A Swedish study has demonstrated and confirmed that the mRNA in the Pfizer/BioNTech Covid injections infiltrates cells and transcribes its message onto human DNA within 6 hours, altering our own DN…
> 
> 
> 
> 
> dailyexpose.uk


Mislead by fact checkers? That’s a very interesting way to phrase it. Do you often feel that all fact checkers disagree with you? If so, have you ever wondered why?

As for the studies referenced in that article, I don’t think they mean what you think they mean. Firstly, they refer to virus RNA, nothing to do with the vaccine. Avoiding the vaccine certainly won’t help you avoid virus RNA. Secondly, they don’t claim or prove that the virus RNA modifies the hosts DNA. I would say youve misunderstood the studies, but I doubt you actually clicked through to read any of them. You just took the article at face value because it aligned with your beliefs.


----------



## RobUK

"You just took the article at face value because it aligned with your beliefs".

Was covid a plandemic or a casedemic designed to scare populations into being injected with a new type of medication that had no long term safety record.
3 Youtube links, the first two are interviews with the inventor of the PCR test Kary Mullis, the third is an interview discussing the PCR cycles with Dr Anthony Fauci. A file showing a freedom of information request to a UK Hospital trust showing the trust used 42 cycles.

Plandemic or casedemic.






YouTube


Share your videos with friends, family, and the world.



studio.youtube.com














YouTube


Share your videos with friends, family, and the world.



studio.youtube.com


----------



## Spandex

Zev Zelenko? Jesus christ. That really is the medical equivalent of clutching at straws.

As for the PCR stuff, I’m not sure what point you’re trying to make as you forgot to actually say (Have a bit of respect for readers - explain your point instead of just forcing them to plough through your links. It’s lazy and it’s not going to win anyone over)

The FOI request simply confirms the maximum number of cycles they use (they have to have a maximum otherwise they’d just carry on running cycles forever on samples with no viral material). It doesn’t actually tell you what their positive/negative threshold was, nor does it tell you if they had any results at Ct42.

In addition to the above, there is nothing specifically wrong with running 42 thermal cycles. A sample that takes 42 cycles to generate detectable viral material doesn’t mean that person isn’t infected, or isn’t currently (or about to be) infectious. This is well documented if you want to educate yourself.

But the other issue here is your ridiculous reaction to this. Even if there was some magic Ct number above which you should never go (which there isn’t), it wouldn’t prove all the other nonsense. You can’t just say “well they’re doing the tests wrong, therefore they must be doing it on purpose, therefore they’re trying to trick us into thinking covid is worse than it is, therefore it must all be fake, therefore the vaccine isn’t real, therefore they’re injecting us with 7G nano tracking chips!”. It’s idiocy to base assumption on top of assumption on top of assumption.


----------



## RobUK

"Zev Zelenko? Jesus christ. That really is the medical equivalent of clutching at straws" REALLY!..

Wife and I contracted covid in Jan 2021 and treated as soon as symptoms appeared, 3 days in bed and about 3 weeks to fully recover, our ages are 78 and 81, we used the ZelenKo protocol. We are not not jabbed but we did take daily VitD3 4000iu`s and zinc sulphate 100mg for the past two years. 

"They’re injecting us with 7G nano tracking chips!"
Are they, I didn`t know that .

Hydroxychloroquine is a zinc ionophore, increasing intracellular zinc inhibits the viral replication system RdRp Polymerase in all enveloped RNA viruses. The mode of action of Quinine/chloroquine / hydroxychloroquine is to raise the PH of the acidic vesicles within a cell, this stops the essential acidic step required by the virus for its uncoating and replication phase. The virus then remains trapped within it`s own protective coating and also within the endosome, the infected cell is then destroyed. 

"Since acidification is crucial for endosome maturation and function, we surmise that endosome maturation might be blocked at intermediate stages of endocytosis, resulting in failure of further transport of virions to the ultimate releasing site".









Hydroxychloroquine, a less toxic derivative of chloroquine, is effective in inhibiting SARS-CoV-2 infection in vitro - Cell Discovery







www.nature.com













Zn2+ Inhibits Coronavirus and Arterivirus RNA Polymerase Activity In Vitro and Zinc Ionophores Block the Replication of These Viruses in Cell Culture


Increasing the intracellular Zn[2+] concentration with zinc-ionophores like pyrithione (PT) can efficiently impair the replication of a variety of RNA viruses, including poliovirus and influenza virus. For some viruses this effect has been attributed ...




www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov













Chloroquine Is a Zinc Ionophore


Chloroquine is an established antimalarial agent that has been recently tested in clinical trials for its anticancer activity. The favorable effect of chloroquine appears to be due to its ability to sensitize cancerous cells to chemotherapy, radiation therapy, and induce apoptosis. The present...




journals.plos.org













Origin and Evolution of RNA-Dependent RNA Polymerase


RNA-dependent RNA polymerases (RdRp) are very ancient enzymes and are essential for all viruses with RNA genomes. We reconstruct the origin and evolution of this polymerase since the initial stages of the origin of life. The origin of the RdRp was traced back from tRNA ancestors. At the origin...




www.frontiersin.org













The Role of Zinc in Antiviral Immunity


Zinc is an essential trace element that is crucial for growth, development, and the maintenance of immune function. Its influence reaches all organs and cell types, representing an integral component of approximately 10% of the human proteome, and encompassing ...




www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov


----------



## Spandex

RobUK said:


> Wife and I contracted covid in Jan 2021 and treated as soon as symptoms appeared, 3 days in bed and about 3 weeks to fully recover, our ages are 78 and 81, we used the ZelenKo protocol. We are not not jabbed but we did take daily VitD3 4000iu`s and zinc sulphate 100mg for the past two years.


Wow, that’s an amazing piece of scientific data. How many people were in your trial in total? What happened to the control group? Are you publishing a paper in one of the major journals, or sticking to posting about it on the TT Forum?

All you’ve really proved is that the ‘Zelenko protocol’ didn’t kill you. That’s it. You don’t know if you’d have been better or worse off without it (but of course you’ll just assume). You might as well claim it was your lucky underpants that saved you, for all the evidence you have. 

Seriously, the meta analyses for trials of HCQ show no benefit. You can sit there and think you know better because you ‘did the research’, but the people who are actually qualified to do that research say you’re wrong.


----------



## RobUK

Spandex said:


> "Seriously, the meta analyses for trials of HCQ show no benefit. You can sit there and think you know better because you ‘did the research’, but the people who are actually qualified to do that research say you’re wrong."


The Zelenko protocol is HCQ 200mg twice daily for 7 days, that`s 2.8 grams. Oxfords deadly recovery trial used HCQ on extremely ill elderly with an accumulated lethal dosage of 9.2 grams. They also used the medication late in the illness when it was known to have little effect.









Oxford, Recovery et Solidarity : Overdosage in two clinical trials with acts considered criminal? | FranceSoir


In the Recovery and Solidarity clinical trials, it is not excluded that patients died as a result of a therapeutic overdose of hydroxychloroquine (HCQ). Hydroxychloroquine continues to be the subject of many conversations. 27 Brazilian researchers are now facing legal charges for overdosing...




www.francesoir.fr









__





The Lancet Published a Fraudulent Study: Editor Calls it “Department of Error” – Philosophers Stone






philosophers-stone.info













WHO "Solidarity" and UK "Recovery" Clinical Trials of Hydroxychloroquine using Potentially Fatal Doses


By Meryl Nass, MD [Editor’s note: It should be noted that Dr Nass’s first objective has been achieved as following the publication of this article the WHO have halted these lethal trials.] Updates can be found here. The Solidarity Trial...



www.ageofautism.com









__





DEFINE_ME






www.thelancet.com





Coronavirus Epidemic Update 34: US Cases Surge, Chloroquine & Zinc Treatment Combo, Italy Lockdown - YouTube


----------



## Spandex

I didn’t mention any individual trial. I’m talking about meta analyses of all trials.

And by the way (because you‘re of a demographic that probably doesn’t understand this) if your ‘research’ involves, in any way at all, looking on YouTube, you’re in trouble and, if I’m being completely honest, you will look like a fool. I feel a little sorry for you and I’m glad you accidentally managed to beat covid, but posting this sort of rubbish on a public forum is misleading, dangerous and irresponsible. You don’t have the qualifications or ability to form a reliable opinion on this stuff, let alone recommend courses of action to others that may affect their health.

The fact that you have written almost nothing in your own words and are relying on posting link after link is a clear sign that you don’t really understand anything you‘re posting and you’re just parroting stuff you’ve read elsewhere. I’m sure this is a possibility you’ve not even considered, but what if you’re wrong? What if you’re spreading information that may end up affecting someones health? Are you so absolutely convinced of this stuff, despite not understanding a single bit of it, that you’re willing to bet other peoples health on it?

I don’t think that’s a very good position to put yourself in.


----------



## RobUK

"I didn’t mention any individual trial. I’m talking about meta analyses of all trials".
Spandex, HCQ has little benefit when given LATE in the illness, it`s action against covid is as an antiviral, it stops viral replication, this is not rocket science. Tamiflu is an antiviral and is effective only when taken within two days after symptoms appear, see NHS.


"Meta analysis using the most serious outcome reported shows 63% [53‑70%] improvement for the 38 early treatment studies. Results are similar after exclusion based sensitivity analysis and after restriction to peer-reviewed studies. The 11 RCTs show 39% [8‑59%] improvement, and the 15 mortality results shows 72% [57‑81%] lower mortality.
•21* early treatment studies* show statistically significant improvements in isolation (15 for the most serious outcome).
•Late treatment is less successful, with only 67% of the 231 studies reporting a positive effect. *Very late stage treatment is not effective and may be harmful,* especially when using excessive dosages."

*Oxford`s Recovery trial.*

Look at Haiti, Uganda, Nigeria, UAE, all used HCQ early.



https://hcqmeta.com


----------



## Spandex

The meta analysis I’ve seen covered both in-patient and out-patent trials, so was not limited to late use in hospitalised patients. It was published in Nature, unlike the analysis you posted which was published on a website called, suspiciously, hcqmeta.com.

So, if a cheap and widely available drug is so effective against Covid, why do you think so many first world countries, with advanced medical and scientific capabilities, decided not to use it and instead to damage their own economies whilst waiting for a vaccine? Genuinely curious where we’re going with this…


----------



## RobUK

Money Spandex, billions in vaccine profits, if there were successful early treatments this would deter populations from excepting a vaccine with no long term safety data, perhaps this recent video may provide some answers for you. As I have stated early treatment is essential for all diseases. 









FareedTyson_1.mp4


Shared with Dropbox




www.dropbox.com







https://covexit.com


----------



## Spandex

So rather than buying the cheap and widely available HCQ, governments all around the world decided to instead wait for, then buy at great expense, a completely unnecessary vaccine. And you think the logical explanation for this is that these governments all independently chose to do this because they wanted the vaccine developers to make lots of money out of them? That’s your plausible theory?

You see the problem here? In order to believe that nonsense, you then need to believe the governments are all in on it. THEN you have to believe they’re all working together. THEN you have to believe there’s a shadowy group controlling them all. Conspiracy theories are like an arms race - each theory you sign up to requires you to believe an increasingly more far-fetched theory in order to paste over the logical cracks in the first one…

I agree though, that early intervention is desirable for all diseases. And vaccination is surely the earliest form of intervention possible, no?

Out of curiosity, how long do you think you lot can keep saying the vaccine has no ‘long term safety data’ for? It’s been in use for well over a year and has been administered, multiple times, to billions of people. At this point, there is probably more data for the covid vaccines than any other prescription drug in existence.


----------



## RobUK

Spandex said:


> It was published in Nature, unlike the analysis you posted which was published on a website called, suspiciously, hcqmeta.com.


Thing is Spandex the analysis I provided linked to ALL study`s referred too, the Oxford metanalysis was designed to show HCQ had no benefit, this is obvious by the inclusion of the Oxford Recovery trial and WHO`s Solidarity trial both gave similar lethal doses late in the illness, HCQ has little efficacy late in the disease, it`s an antiviral which stops viral replication, it can`t do that after it has occurred, India warned the WHO their dosing regime was dangerous, this was understood with regard to quinine as early as 1870, early treatment was the key then and is today.
Neither the Oxford Recovery trial or the WHO solidarity trial used the combination therapy of HCQ + zinc, the majority of the trials sited in the Nature piece were late, especially the U.S study`s.

"So, if a cheap and widely available drug is so effective against Covid, why do you think so many first world countries, with advanced medical and scientific capabilities, decided not to use it"

Why indeed, even if HCQ was only 10% effective 10% is better than zero especially pre vaccine rollout on Dec 9th 2020, that`s 9 months from the WHO pandemic declaration on March 11th 2020 with NO treatment. From that date to the vaccine rollout on the 9th Dec 64,525 mainly elderly died of covid and our NHS stopped all doctors from treating anyone with flu like symptoms.

*No profit* in off patent drugs for big pharma, scare world populations into accepting a new type of vaccine and the cash just rolls in.

Efficacy and safety of chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine in moderate type of COVID-19: a prospective open-label randomized controlled study (from your Nature piece)

Email to me from a consultant, title ( Sam








)





__





Medical record. v.97 (1920).






babel.hathitrust.org












The flu : a brief history of influenza in U.S. America, Europe, Hawaii : Mouritz, A. A. St. M. (Arthur Albert St. M.), 1861-1943 : Free Download, Borrow, and Streaming : Internet Archive


Printer from verso of t.p



archive.org








__





Journal of the Medical Society of New Jersey v.19 1922.






babel.hathitrust.org












A manual of medical treatment or clinical therapeutics [electronic resource] : Yeo, I. Burney (Isaac Burney), 1835-1914 : Free Download, Borrow, and Streaming : Internet Archive


Vol. 1: xv, 631 p. ; vol. 2: vi, 746 p



archive.org








__





Fifty years a country doctor, by William N. Macartney, M. D.






babel.hathitrust.org


----------



## Spandex

Sweet baby jesus... That email!! 

"... help me suspect there is a massive global campaign by MegaPharma and globalist elite billionaires to push a compulsory universal "vaccine" agenda (coupled with identity implants for every human)"

Identity implants!! Where did you find this guy?? I can see why you're not posting his full name now.... 

On a more serious note, do you think this email (written back when there was virtually no clinical trial data on the effectiveness of HCQ on covid) is in any way compelling? If I found another doctor that said the opposite (and I think you know that wouldn't be hard) would that persuade you? If not, why do you believe your 'consultant' IS persuasive?


----------



## RobUK

Time will tell Spandex, it took 9 years before thalidomide was finally found to be causing severe abnormality`s.
This guy as you call him is an NHS consultant his wife is an NHS medical Doctor, they rented one of my houses, his name was redacted for reasons most would understand.
You would do well to read and digest the contents of the article below (never have blind faith in your leaders).








COVID UPDATE: What is the truth?







web.archive.org


----------



## Spandex

The side effects of thalidomide were visible within months. The connection was missed due to poor medical practises and the less than perfect information sharing of the time.

The ‘guy’ may be a consultant, but he’s not an epidemiologist (medial doctors actually receive woefully inadequate education in statistics and data analysis) his bizarre beliefs are genuinely worrying for someone in his position. So yes, I imagine most people would understand why his name is redacted - who would want that nut job as their doctor?

I don’t have the tiniest bit of faith in our leaders, blind or otherwise. I do have trust in the people doing the science though, and I’m willing to trust the majority view of those scientists because trusting a minority view on a subject I’m not an expert in is the very definition of blind faith.


----------



## RobUK

QUOTE
I don’t have the tiniest bit of faith in our leaders, blind or otherwise. I do have trust in the people doing the science though, and I’m willing to trust the majority view of those scientists because trusting a minority view on a subject I’m not an expert in is the very definition of blind faith.
QUOTE
*So you will only consider the consensus view,* 

Nobel prize winners Dr Barry Marshall and Dr Warren. 

"What seemed so obvious to Warren and Marshall met with enormous resistance. After all, the acid causation theory had been in place for almost a century. The treatment of peptic ulcer disease had spawned an industry. From Maalox to Mylanta to Tums, sodium bicarbonate and even to Coca Cola and dairy products, soothing patient’s gastric symptoms had become a cause celebré for Western medicine. Ulcer surgery in the form of the vagotomy and pyloroplasties (V&P), Bilroth1 and Bilroth2, even gastrectomies, had come to constitute the most widely practiced surgical procedures in the United States. *Gastric ulcers were good for business* and no one from the pharmaceutical industry, to the hospitals, or the operating surgeons, *were very interested in changing that*".

Of Helicobacter, Cancer and the Medical Establishment

"*Doctor Borody* is most famous for his ground-breaking work developing the triple therapy cure for peptic ulcers in 1981, which has saved hundreds of thousands of lives, and the Australian health system more than $10 billion in medical care and operations".




__





Doctor Thomas Borody – The Centre for Digestive Diseases







centrefordigestivediseases.com





Interview with Prof Borody, watch part 1 first " Covid is easier to cure than Flu".





__





Professor Thomas Borody Interview – Part 2







covexit.com


----------



## Spandex

RobUK said:


> *So you will only consider the consensus view,*


It's not about 'considering' it. There's no point me 'considering' a medical treatment because I have no personal ability to analyse that treatment. All I can do is let expert's 'consider' it and form a conclusion. So yes, in an area where I have no personal expertise, it is entirely rational and sensible to follow the current consensus view of the actual experts in that field. To claim otherwise is idiotic.

I'm well aware of the 'ulcer argument', and it's logically flawed. If if tells you anything, it's simply that scientific consensus can and does change. I don't follow the scientific consensus because I think it can't change, I follow it because I trust that it will if needed. Demonstrating that experts aren't always right isn't evidence that you shouldn't always trust them either. It just tells us that in trusting them, we are still taking a risk - we're just taking a smaller risk than if we didn't trust them.

You can sit there congratulating yourself for not following the consensus, but all that really means is that you've cherry picked a fringe theory to subscribe to, based on ideological and political beliefs (because you're not, clearly, in possession of any actual scientific expertise, so it's definitely not based on that).

Now can you see the difference between us? I don't actually care what the consensus is, and if the consensus changes to be that HCQ is the panacea, then I'll be perfectly fine with that. You, on the other hand, have picked a side and closed your mind.


----------



## RobUK

"You, on the other hand, have picked a side and closed your mind".

Did you take note of the date of that email, there was no side to pick at that time, it was a matter of finding some sort of treatment as the NHS *EXPERTS* offered *NOTHING*. French Prof Didier Raoult was trialling HCQ and my Doctor contact made me aware of this, I obtained the med, everywhere I looked there were positives, I followed the positives and discarded the negatives, my choice and it appears to have paid off for me.

HCQ was over the counter in France for over 40 years, that stopped in early Jan 2020 the decision to change the status of the med was made in Dec 2019 before covid , why?.
Doctors in the UK were instructed not to use HCQ for the treatment of covid in early Jan 2020, why?.

I ask questions you obviousely don`t.


----------



## Spandex

RobUK said:


> "You, on the other hand, have picked a side and closed your mind".
> 
> Did you take note of the date of that email, there was no side to pick at that time, it was a matter of finding some sort of treatment as the NHS *EXPERTS* offered *NOTHING*. French Prof Didier Raoult was trialling HCQ and my Doctor contact made me aware of this, I obtained the med, everywhere I looked there were positives, I followed the positives and discarded the negatives, my choice and it appears to have paid off for me.


I did take note of the date - it shows that doctor had absolutely zero information about the efficacy of HCQ. at the time. And your little experiment doesn’t ‘appear to have paid off’ at all. The fact that you think your individual experience is somehow significant enough to demonstrate the effectiveness of a drug shows a woeful lack of understanding. You and your wifes cases prove absolutely nothing. I’m not just being dismissive here, I mean you are genuinely statistically irrelevant. As am I, and every other individual on the planet. Proving a drug works takes numbers, and the numbers show HCQ is ineffective. Which means you and your wife were lucky. Nothing more.


RobUK said:


> HCQ was over the counter in France for over 40 years, that stopped in early Jan 2020 the decision to change the status of the med was made in Dec 2019 before covid , why?.


Who knows.


RobUK said:


> Doctors in the UK were instructed not to use HCQ for the treatment of covid in early Jan 2020, why?.


Why were doctors instructed not to use a drug with serious potential side effects and whose efficacy was completely unknown? Gosh mate, that’s certainly a puzzler…


RobUK said:


> I ask questions you obviousely don`t.


A five year old asks questions I obviously don’t, so don’t get too excited.

Have you ever spent any time talking to someone with paranoid schizophrenia? They do exactly what you’re doing - they sit there looking for ‘connections’ that they can use to prove whatever delusion they happen to have formed. Nothing is a coincidence. Everything is meaningful. If there’s a question that peopl don’t know the answer to, that means they can fill in the blank with whatever they want.

That‘s you right now. You have no idea why the French changed the status of a drug, but you don’t need to ‘know‘, do you? You‘ve found a connection and filled in the blanks.


----------



## RobUK

"Why were doctors instructed not to use a drug with serious potential side effects and whose efficacy was completely unknown? Gosh mate, that’s certainly a puzzler…

Err, what serious side effects would they be?."

Hydroxychloroquine cures seriously ill UK patient, that was before it didn`t.
I suggest you listen carefully to this early ITV news item 2.0. Modest is better than nothing, that was my choice, I chose modest and had mild covid symptoms.





.

"That‘s you right now. You have no idea why the French changed the status of a drug, but you don’t need to ‘know‘, do you? You‘ve found a connection and filled in the blanks".

The timing Spandex, its the timing.

Why France is hiding a cheap, tested virus cure. 

"it shows that doctor had absolutely zero information about the efficacy of HCQ. at the time". 









Hydroxychloroquine is effective, and consistently so when provided early, for COVID-19: a systematic review


Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) has shown efficacy against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in some but not all studies. We hypothesized that a systematic review would show HCQ to be effective against COVID-19, more effective when provided earlier, not associated ...




www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov





.................................................................................................................................................

April 2020

UAE, 2,302 deaths associated with covid, population 10.1 million.
Early treatment with HCQ.


----------



## Spandex

I give up. You’re a walking demonstration of the Dunning Kruger effect.

You are a perfect demonstration of why old people shouldn’t be allowed on the internet. You’re not equipped to handle it.


----------



## RobUK

Spandex said:


> I give up. You’re a walking demonstration of the Dunning Kruger effect.
> 
> You are a perfect demonstration of why old people shouldn’t be allowed on the internet. You’re not equipped to handle it.


Spandex, facts appear to be irrelevant if they are contrary to your beliefs. 
Always the same in the woke world, if they can`t support their position they attack the messenger. 

Covid-19: Lancet retracts paper that halted hydroxychloroquine trials (What happened to peer review).

Lets look at Switzerland in relation to the Lancet fraud, it`s the timing Spandex. 









Covid-19: hydroxychloroquine works, a proof ? | FranceSoir


Addendum as of July 16, 2020:On 14 July some people asked about the Swiss data. According to the latter, Switzerland has reclassified some patients. No information is available to date. We had contacted the OFSP without reply to date.




www.francesoir.fr


----------



## Spandex

RobUK said:


> Spandex, facts appear to be irrelevant if they are contrary to your beliefs.
> Always the same in the woke world, if they can`t support their position they attack the messenger.
> 
> Covid-19: Lancet retracts paper that halted hydroxychloroquine trials (What happened to peer review).
> 
> Lets look at Switzerland in relation to the Lancet fraud, it`s the timing Spandex.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Covid-19: hydroxychloroquine works, a proof ? | FranceSoir
> 
> 
> Addendum as of July 16, 2020:On 14 July some people asked about the Swiss data. According to the latter, Switzerland has reclassified some patients. No information is available to date. We had contacted the OFSP without reply to date.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.francesoir.fr


Your issue is that you think you can find one ‘fact’ that agrees with you and then ignore all the facts that don’t. Medical trials rarely give conclusive, binary answers which is why meta reviews exist. But you cherry pick the results you like and ignore the important fact that those results are in the minority.

And I’m not attacking the messenger because you’re not a messenger. You’re just a gullible old fool who has been tricked into believing a fringe scientific theory.

That guardian article actually clearly shows that peer review works. The lancet paper was retracted because issues were found with data provided by a company. It’s also over a year old and it state that the trials that stopped because of the lancet paper were restarted when it was retracted.

It shows that the scientific method works. That’s what I trust in, not the results of this or that trial.


----------



## RobUK

Spandex said:


> Your issue is that you think you can find one ‘fact’ that agrees with you and then ignore all the facts that don’t. Medical trials rarely give conclusive, binary answers which is why meta reviews exist. But you cherry pick the results you like and ignore the important fact that those results are in the minority.
> 
> And I’m not attacking the messenger because you’re not a messenger. You’re just a gullible old fool who has been tricked into believing a fringe scientific theory.
> 
> That guardian article actually clearly shows that peer review works. The lancet paper was retracted because issues were found with data provided by a company. It’s also over a year old and it state that the trials that stopped because of the lancet paper were restarted when it was retracted.
> 
> It shows that the scientific method works. That’s what I trust in, not the results of this or that trial.


Spandex, the the AEU early covid protocol is fact.

The Swiss bump in covid deaths caused by the removal and reinstatement of HCQ caused by the fraudulent Lancet study that had supposedly been peer reviewed before it was published is fact.

It took independent researches to uncover that fraudulent study *not the Lancet reviewers.*

It is irrelevant how old the Guardian piece is, the lancet study caused immense damage to HCQ as a treatment which was it`s sole intention, this action has probably caused the death of tens of thousands.

Never in the long history of the Lancet has a retraction occurred so swiftly, as an example, it took 12 years for the lancet to retract Dr Wakefield`s MMR study which has now been shown to be correct, that`s discussion for another day.

*The UK had NO covid early treatment and banned the use of HCQ,* ( self isolate for 14 days ).

*UK* as of the 29th May 2022 *178,465* covid linked deaths, population *68.5 million*. 

*Sudan* as of the 29th May 2022. HCQ was still effective even in the later stages of the disease as can be shown in their protocol and by the numbers.

*4,941* covid linked deaths, population *45.9 million*, HCQ.

Then there is India.

Facts Spandex, just Facts, nothing to do with age.








fact.


----------



## Spandex

I would class all scientific reviews of a paper as peer review, although it often refers to the reviews done prior to publication. The point is that errors were found and the paper retracted. That’s a good thing, no? That shows the system works.

The problem isnt the facts, it’s your interpretation of them. Causation and correlation. Look them up. You see a correlation when France changes the prescription status of HCQ, and you turn it into a causation. You do the same for all your other ‘facts’.

At the end of the day, you’re supporting a fringe theory without the medical, scientific or statistical qualifications required to interpret the data, or ‘facts’. I, on the other hand, am happy to leave it to the experts. Not the experts of my choosing, but all of them.

Oh, and by the way, no one actually believes the Sudanese governments official covid death figures. I suppose you believe North Korea only had its first covid death this month too?


----------



## RobUK

"The point is that errors were found and the paper retracted. That’s a good thing, no? That shows the system works".

Spandex, the Lancet reviewers Did *NOT* find any errors in the paper as it went into print, independent researches found the fraud within days, that shows the system *failed. *
Another Covid study linked to the same data source Surgisphere was also withdrawn around the same time, the NEJM reviewers did *NOT find fault* in the study These are the two most prodigious medical journals in the world and both *failed* in peer (pal) review.

Retraction: Cardiovascular Disease, Drug Therapy, and Mortality in *Covid-19**. *N Engl J Med. DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa2007621.









Retraction: Cardiovascular Disease, Drug Therapy, and Mortality in Covid-19. N Engl J Med. DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa2007621. | NEJM


Correspondence from The New England Journal of Medicine — Retraction: Cardiovascular Disease, Drug Therapy, and Mortality in Covid-19. N Engl J Med. DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa2007621.



www.nejm.org






https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2007621



"The problem isn't the facts, it’s your interpretation of them. Causation and correlation. Look them up. You see a correlation when France changes the prescription status of HCQ, and you turn it into a causation".

This is hard work, *The only country in the world* to ban doctors from visiting and treating anyone with flu like symptoms was the UK, 178,465 died.

Here is an example of *early* treatment in India with *HCQ.*










‘How I fought COVID-19 and won!’


As a doctor posted at the Apollo Emergency Clinic at the Chennai Airport, I was worried about the exposure to the SARS-CoV-2 virus while on duty. However, I continued to work until passenger operation




web.archive.org





"At the end of the day, you’re supporting a fringe theory without the medical, scientific or statistical qualifications required to interpret the data". 

The Nigerian population take HCQ weekly as a prophylactic against malaria, it is cheap and sold in most corner shops, NO prescription needed. It may not be as effective against malaria as it once was but it is all this third world population can afford. HCQ has a half life of around 30 days so builds up protection over time.

Nigeria, 200 million population and just 3,143 covid linked deaths, a correlation that Dr Roy Spencer found in early 2020.
Same for Haiti, endemic malaria, HCQ weekly as prophylaxis, 835 covid linked deaths and population of 11.7 million.

Haiti - FLASH : Health Alert of the Ministry of Health on the Coronavirus - HaitiLibre.com : Haiti news 7/7 

The Ministry calls that *chloroquine is a drug used in Haiti in the treatment of malaria* and invites the population to a rational use of this drug to avoid the development of antimicrobial resistance.

You see Spandex, Malaria prophylaxis = *early treatment *with an antiviral that provides benefit against Covid.

6 African Presidents that refused to vax their populations are now dead, probably just a coincidence.


----------



## Spandex

Yes, I agree, the pre-publication review missed the errors. I just don't see the significance. Seriously, so what? I doubt that's the first time that's happened with a paper and I doubt it's the last. The issue was spotted eventually and addressed.

I know what your idiotic argument will be though, because it's always the same with you nut jobs. If a review of a publication fails to pick up an error, it gives you carte blanche to ignore any publications you don't like the look of from then on. If a doctor makes a mistake, you can ignore any doctors that say things you don't want to hear. If the medical community make a discovery that changes how they treat a disease, you think that means you can just act like they don't know what they're talking about whenever it suits your moronic argument.

"6 African Presidents that refused to vax their populations are now dead, probably just a coincidence."

Once again, correlation is not causation. You are making a basic mistake that I remember being taught to avoid in secondary school.









Fact Check-No evidence five leaders were killed for opposing COVID-19 vaccines


Following the assassination of Haitian President Jovenel Moise on July 7, a new meme circulating on social media presents the unfounded claim that he and four other leaders, who also died while in office, were killed for opposing COVID-19 vaccines.




www.reuters.com





It seems the authors of this piece couldn't find any evidence, which amazes me, because you've managed to find conclusive proof from the comfort of your own armchair. Come on Columbo, lets see what evidence you have. I'm on the edge of my seat.

You're right about one thing though. This is hard work.


----------



## RobUK

"Yes, I agree, the pre-publication review missed the errors. I just don't see the significance".

The significance is, It *destroys* the scientific gold standard which is based on peer review. 

"I know what your idiotic argument will be though, because it's always the same with you nut jobs".

Name calling Spandex, is that all you have, tut tut. 

"If the medical community make a discovery that changes how they treat a disease, you think that means you can just act like they don't know what they're talking about whenever it suits your moronic argument".

Do you mean like the renowned French scientist and virologist Didier Raoult who championed *HCQ* as a treatment for covid when the medical community said there was *none*, or Doctor Barry Marshal who discovered Helicobacter pylori and had to fight the medical establishment for eights years to get this accepted.
It appears that you believe only big pharma are capable of discovering all present and future medications, like their next useless Tamiflu which is all the NHS has for the early treatment of flu in 2022. The NHS have now removed the direct link, but it still remains on the wayback Machine.









Effectiveness of Tamiflu and Relenza questioned


“Ministers blew £650 MILLION on useless anti-flu drugs,” the Daily Mail reports. The paper cites a large study, which investigated the effectiveness of the antiviral drugs Tamiflu (oseltamivir) and Relenza (zanamivir).




web.archive.org





"Once again, correlation is not causation."

I never said it was and totally agree.

"5 African leaders die", 

I mentioned (5 African leaders die) to get a reaction and you come up with Reuters fact checkers, that's like obtaining controversial information from Wikipedia and expecting it to be factual, Ha Ha Ha.

The sad thing for me is to see so many elderly still wearing masks in hot weather, this is what 2 years of relentless propaganda can do.


----------



## Spandex

No, name calling isn’t all I’ve got. I also spent way more time than you deserve explaining how stupid your arguments are. Name calling is just my little reward to myself for putting up with your nonsense up to now.

And you can say that you agree correlation isn’t causation as much as you want, but every single one of your arguments relies on confusing the two. If you want too prove me wrong about that, post up your evidence for WHY the French changed the prescription status for HCQ in 2019. Simple as that.


----------



## RobUK

Looks like you have swallowed the two years of propaganda hook line and sinker, did the jabs hurt.

*BMJ 2003*, big Pharma corruption has been evident for years.

*Who pays for the pizza? Redefining the relationships
between doctors and drug companies. 1: Entanglement *

Sci-Hub | Who pays for the pizza? Redefining the relationships between doctors and drug companies. 1: Entanglement | 10.1136/bmj.326.7400.1189, 

You will need *Tor* to read the content of this link, Sci-Hub is blocked in the UK. They don`t want the plebs getting wind of this and other scientific articles and study`s, it might open their eyes, probably not yours though.


----------



## Spandex

Shall I take it you can’t provide any evidence about the French decision then? Want to admit you’re treating correlation as causation there?


----------



## RobUK

Groupthink.pdf (thegwpf.org).

I have been a Climate skeptic for over 30 years, Steve MacIntyre ( Climate Audit), Anthony Watts (WUWT), correlation is not causation, but it should lead one to question the issue, not you though.

Nigerian deaths from *Spanish Flu*, (1) the population was young as in 2020, (2) there was endemic malaria as in 2020, (3) there was *NO* quinine as treatment for Malaria but in 2020 there was *Hydroxychloroquine*. There appears to be a correlation here, the widespread use of CQ/HCQ in 2020 as against *NO* quinine treatment in 1918.

Why did so many die in 1918, ( population 8.6 million, Flu deaths 199.3 thousand, 2.3% of population, in 2020/22, (3,143 Cov deaths with population of 215.8 million ).
As I earlier posted, Dr Roy Spencer saw the Africa correlation in early 2020, I noticed and followed the quinine link from 1918 to 2020.
1918 pandemic and the 2020 plandemic, it appears this time round African`s received treatment and the West didn`t.





__





Population Of Nigerians That Died During Spanish's Flu Pandemic In 1918 - Health - Nigeria






www.nairaland.com


----------



## Spandex

Still avoiding the question…


----------



## RobUK

Spandex said:


> Still avoiding the question…











Africa's largest Covid treatment clinical trial launched by 13-country network


Anticov study with international research institutions aims to stop disease progression and protect fragile health systems




www.theguardian.com




.

*24th Nov 2020*.

"Initially, Anticov will focus on drugs where large-scale randomised clinical trials could provide missing efficacy data in *mild-to-moderate patients*. The trial will begin testing, against a control arm, the HIV antiretroviral combination lopinavir-ritonavir and the *malaria drug hydroxychloroquine*, which remains *the standard of care for Covid-19 today in numerous African countries.

24th Nov 2020 Kenia, *5,651 covid linked deaths, population 56 million.
*23rd Nov 2020 UK*, 57,816 covid linked deaths, population 68.5 million, NO doctor visits outside of hospital, NO nursing home doctor visits just standard of care only, self isolate for 14 days or until you find breathing difficult.

Do you still believe NO treatment outside of hospital is best.

You have been *had* Spandex, correlation is not causation but it might be the death of you if you totally discount it and the opinions of credible independent researchers who have NO financial links to Big Pharma.









The Hydroxychloroquine Scandal


On Thursday, the UK's MHRA stopped two clinical trials testing Hydroxychloroquine's efficacy for treating COVID-19. Why?




www.ukcolumn.org




.

Honest reporting with LINKS provide.









Hydroxychloroquine Disgrace, COVID 19 And The Vaccine Fallacy – Part 1


Hydroxychloroquine may or may not be an effective prevetative treatment against COVID 19. The story of this drugs progress through trials is very revealing.




in-this-together.com







https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/bst/advpub/0/advpub_2020.01047/_pdf/-char/en


----------



## Spandex

RobUK said:


> [correlation is not causation but it might be the death of you if you totally discount it


So you’ve given up pretending that you haven’t been confusing correlation with causation and now you’re just trying to make excuses for doing it.

Correlation can lead you to look for evidence - it doesn’t mean you don’t need it.


----------



## RobUK

As I said earlier, it`s all about choices, you`ve been jabbed I haven't, we will see what happens in October, I will end it there for now.


----------



## Spandex

RobUK said:


> As I said earlier, it`s all about choices, you`ve been jabbed I haven't, we will see what happens in October, I will end it there for now.


October? Come on, if you have a theory, this is the perfect way to test it. Tell us what’s going to happen in October and we can come back in a few months to see if you were right.


----------



## RobUK

EPISODE 259: THE MOVIE THAT INSPIRED A MOVEMENT


How is it that The HighWire’s reporting on Covid has been so far ahead? How did we know so much about the public health players, and the games they would play with lockdowns and vaccines? Because, the




rumble.com





Fact or fiction, sound familiar, your choice.


----------



## Spandex

Just answer the question. What do you think is happening in October? Try actually telling us, instead of posting links.


----------



## RobUK

Spandex said:


> Just answer the question. What do you think is happening in October? Try actually telling us, instead of posting links.


4.


----------



## Spandex

RobUK said:


> 4.


Your ‘jokes’ land about as well as the rest of your posts.

Oh well, I look forward to a moronic post from you in October saying “see, I said it would happen” about some random connection you manage to make then.


----------



## RobUK

Spandex said:


> Your ‘jokes’ land about as well as the rest of your posts.
> 
> Oh well, I look forward to a moronic post from you in October saying “see, I said it would happen” about some random connection you manage to make then.


Me zero you Three, Vaccine programmes must consider their effect on general resistance.


----------



## Spandex

RobUK said:


> Me zero you Three, Vaccine programmes must consider their effect on general resistance.


If you can’t be arsed to actually write stuff, then why do you think others will be arsed to read your random links? You’re no better than a spambot.

Actually.. BobBot, is that you? No overlap in posting history, same chaotic style of posting, same obsession with constant posting of links without explanation and a willingness believe every fringe theory going. If you’re not BobBot, you must be his brother.


----------



## RobUK

Choices Spandex,

By the time this study below was posted I already had my med stash and in early Jan 2021 I used it, having my stash meant no masks, no fear and no jabs, you on the other hand had and still have the 3 monkeys syndrome.

The owner of Covexit.com, Jean-Pierre Kiekens thankfully gave me the hint to the med HCQ and it`s supply source, the other 2 meds Zinc sulphate and Doxycycline came from the UK.









Coronavirus: Treatment is on its Way


by Jean-Pierre Kiekens - Oxford trained economist and former lecturer at the University of Brussels. The author also holds a degree in bio-engineering / agronomy from the same university.




www.linkedin.com





In Jan 2020 France stopped the over the counter sale of HCQ.

Coalition: Advocacy for prospective clinical trials to test the post-exposure potential of hydroxychloroquine against COVID-19 - ScienceDirect


----------



## Spandex

You’ve started repeating yourself RobBot… Old age, or maybe a side effect?

No one cares about your cherrypicked links. No one cares that you survived because you wore your lucky pants (or whatever specious reasoning you‘re using). The only person still listening is me and I’m laughing at you.


----------



## RobUK

3 jabbed Spandex, good luck for the future, over and out.


----------



## Spandex

“3 jabbed”? I’ve had more than three jabs because I’ve had vaccines for other diseases too, as have you.

Thats the thing, isn’t it. Even if we accept your unsubstantiated theories about HCQ, it doesn't really explain why you're promoting cure rather than prevention for an incredibly infectious virus that is frequently asymptomatic.A vaccine is clearly the most logical long term method to combat to a viral pandemic (something even you couldn't disagree with), so that should be what we aim for. And we have multiple vaccines for Covid, so presumably, unless there are known, documented reasons not to use them, they should be used. No?

So, what is the reason for not using the vaccines?


----------



## ashfinlayson

ashfinlayson said:


> It isn't flu bob, it's a respiratory disease that is more likely to cause infection in anyone that doesn't have healthy lungs. I expect anyone that is often exposed to fumes/dust, smokers asthma sufferers etc is at higher risk. Unfortunately the government have opted to protect the economy over the population as it is not possible to do both. Relying on building a heard immunity means a great many more people will die over the coming weeks and months.


Wow, how misinformed I was.


----------



## RobUK

Spandex said:


> “3 jabbed”? I’ve had more than three jabs because I’ve had vaccines for other diseases too, as have you.
> 
> Thats the thing, isn’t it. Even if we accept your unsubstantiated theories about HCQ, it doesn't really explain why you're promoting cure rather than prevention for an incredibly infectious virus that is frequently asymptomatic.A vaccine is clearly the most logical long term method to combat to a viral pandemic (something even you couldn't disagree with), so that should be what we aim for. And we have multiple vaccines for Covid, so presumably, unless there are known, documented reasons not to use them, they should be used. No?
> 
> So, what is the reason for not using the vaccines?


You really don't get it do you, there was NO vaccine until until the end of December 2020, by then over 76,000 mainly elderly had died of covid flu, even though HCQ was being shown to be effective against covid across the world especially when given within 7-8 days of symptoms the UK gov banned ALL doctors from treating anyone with flu like symptoms pre hospital. There were NO doctor visits to nursing homes, eventually the UK gov gave a free 4 month supply of a paltry 400 iu`s of Vit D3 to nursing homes, I have taken 4000iu`s daily throughout this contrived plandemic.
The UK Gov waited for a vaccine with No long term safety history and let the elderly die until it arrived. By early March 2021, around 2 months after vax rollout 127,000 mainly elderly had died. I am not suggesting HCQ would have saved all those poor soles but it would certainly have saved many of them.


----------



## RobUK

ashfinlayson said:


> Wow, how misinformed I was.


If it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck it is a duck
Flu or corona, both have surface spikes that attach to certain receptors on our lung cells, both are then drawn into the cell by endocytosis, both travel toward the nucleus
encased in an endosome, both need an acid step within the endosome for their escape into the cytoplasm and replication. Different name, different shape but both are RNA enveloped single strand viruses.

Hydroxychloroquine is a weak base molecule and when protonated within an acid compartment it highers the Ph within and stops the viruses essential acidic step, the virus is then trapped and the infected cell is destroyed. Look it up.

The study below is related to Adenovirus, same method of travel towards the nucleus, HCQ has same action against this virus. It`s all smoke and mirrors guy`s, Big Pharma snake oil salemen, HCQ has history, Chloroquine, Quinine.









Adenovirus membrane penetration: Tickling the tail of a sleeping dragon


As is the case for nearly every viral pathogen, non-enveloped viruses (NEV) must maintain their integrity under potentially harsh environmental condit…




www.sciencedirect.com


----------



## RobUK

Watch


Watch live here every Thursday at 11 PM PT (2 PM ET) and catch up on past episodes and episode segments.



thehighwire.com





Real journalism with reference data.


----------



## Spandex

RobUK said:


> You really don't get it do you


Oh, I do get it. I’m just not talking about that. I’m talking about now that there is a vaccine. Don’t you agree that the vaccines *we now have* are the best approach, currently, to dealing with covid?

Also, why do you keep going on about how HCQ works on other viruses? There are lots of anti-virals in existence, but they don’t all work on all viruses, or even all similar viruses. It isn’t evidence of anything. The fact you’re even mentioning it is a clear sign that there isn’t enough evidence that HCQ is effective against covid - because if there was, you wouldn’t need to clutch at straws by trying to find parallels with other viruses it is known to be effective against. 



RobUK said:


> Real journalism with reference data.


LOL.. Real journalism? It’s an ICAN recruiting site. If you think you can get unbiased information about covid from a website run by a well known anti-vax group then you‘re an idiot.


----------



## RobUK

Spandex said:


> Oh, I do get it. I’m just not talking about that. I’m talking about now that there is a vaccine. Don’t you agree that the vaccines *we now have* are the best approach, currently, to dealing with covid?
> 
> Also, why do you keep going on about how HCQ works on other viruses? There are lots of anti-virals in existence, but they don’t all work on all viruses, or even all similar viruses. It isn’t evidence of anything. The fact you’re even mentioning it is a clear sign that there isn’t enough evidence that HCQ is effective against covid - because if there was, you wouldn’t need to clutch at straws by trying to find parallels with other viruses it is known to be effective against.
> 
> 
> LOL.. Real journalism? It’s an ICAN recruiting site. If you think you can get unbiased information about covid from a website run by a well known anti-vax group then you‘re an idiot.


Every flu type RNA enveloped single strand virus requires an acidic step to initiate it`s replication cycle, that is not an opinion it`s the results obtained by researches posting in some of the most prestigious medical journals in the world. It is a fact that weak based molecules inhibit that acidic step, HCQ is one of the safest and most powerful of them. 

The problem for Big pharma and their government stooges is that had that molecule been widely available as it is in some of the poorest county's in the world who by coincidence have some of the lowest covid deaths rates in the world the targeted populations in the west would have been less likely to have accepted these mRNA fast tracked jabs, I being one of them. From the very start of this plandemic fear played a significant part in enticing populations to accept a jab with NO long term safety data, you being one of them.


----------



## Spandex

You’re avoiding the question (a common theme, it seems). You still haven‘t explained why HCQ is preferable to the vaccines we now have, which are now known to be safe. You would agree at least, I assume, that prevention is better than cure - especially given the fact this virus can infect asymptomatically.

As for ‘plandemic’ - Jesus, you really did fall down a rabbit hole, didn’t you. We really must chat about the moon landings some time... . Or maybe chemtrails. 5G conspiracies are probably right up your alley too. Genuinely curious to see what other credulous nonsense you’ve fallen for just because you found an article with ‘reference data’.


----------



## RobUK

Spandex said:


> You’re avoiding the question (a common theme, it seems). You still haven‘t explained why HCQ is preferable to the vaccines we now have, which are now known to be safe. You would agree at least, I assume, that prevention is better than cure - especially given the fact this virus can infect asymptomatically.
> 
> As for ‘plandemic’ - Jesus, you really did fall down a rabbit hole, didn’t you. We really must chat about the moon landings some time... . Or maybe chemtrails. 5G conspiracies are probably right up your alley too. Genuinely curious to see what other credulous nonsense you’ve fallen for just because you found an article with ‘reference data’.


Bombshell Oxford Study: Less than 6% of "Approved" Medical Drugs Are Backed by "High-Quality Evidence" to Support Their Benefits - "Harms" are Significantly Underreported Across the Board 

Oxford study referred to below.









Most healthcare interventions tested in Cochrane Reviews are not effective according to high quality evidence: a systematic review and meta-analysis


To estimate the proportion of healthcare interventions tested within Cochrane Reviews that are effective according to high-quality evidence.We selecte…




www.sciencedirect.com




!

Here is an example of the NHS being in the pocket of Big Pharma, the original link has now been removed by the NHS, Tamiflu is still in 2022 the first line drug used to protect the UK elderly, it is useless for this age group. As I said earlier, you Spandex appear to believe everything without question, three monkeys syndrome..

Effectiveness of Tamiflu and Relenza questioned live

www.nhs.uk/news/medication/effectiveness-of-tamiflu-and-relenza-questioned/

Then there is the Statin wars.


----------



## Spandex

We’re talking about the covid vaccine, not other drugs. If you have evidence they‘re unsafe, or ineffective, or part of a conspiracy, post it. Trying to prove there are problems with one drug by showing there have been problems with other unrelated drugs is moronic.

If that’s the best you’ve got, it’s embarrassing.


----------



## RobUK

Use English translate if not fluent in French, Prof Didier Raoult. 13.06 relates to vaccines.
He was the most respected virologist in France until he decided to treat covid patients early with HCQ.






This is an early Spanish Study, 30 Sep 2020, it shows benefit, there was nothing else at the time yet the UK banned it for Covid.

"Our results, showing that HCQ is associated with positive outcomes, are consistent with the ones first reported in March 2020. A number of observational studies later conducted in China, France, Spain (in a hospital not included in our project), and the USA, have also reported the association between HCQ and lower mortality [22–27]."





__





Europe PMC


Europe PMC is an archive of life sciences journal literature.




europepmc.org


----------



## Spandex

I think I’ve found evidence HCQ causes brain damage. Have you not manage to actually read any of my last few post?

As for the subject of your latest brain fart, “He was the most respected virologist in France until he decided to treat covid patients early with HCQ”, that’s not true is it. He was respected, despite engaging in many unethical activities over the years, until he threw his toys out the pram over covid.


----------



## RobUK

"Hydroxychloroquine had been used in 1857 patients. *Hydroxychloroquine was associated with lower mortality *when the model was adjusted for age and gender, with OR (95% CI): 0.44 (0.29–0.67). This association remained significant when saturation of oxygen







<







90% and temperature







>







37 °C were added to de model with OR 0.45 (0.30–0.68) _p_








0.001, and also when all the other drugs, and time of admission, were included as covariates".

The authors of the study you failed to comment on are also misguided, yes/no.

It appears the incessant covid propaganda convinced you to get jabbed even though you were in an age group (20-39) with small chance of serious illness if fit (176 deaths out of a population of 56 million), you cannot now it appears accept that you may have made a mistake as the vax appears to be turning out to be more dangerous than the virus, only time will tell as the serious side effects now appearing build up over time.
For me, I have the meds that will protect against another RNA 
flu type virus attack just as they did for covid, you will have to go for another dodgy jab or chance it.


----------



## Spandex

Are you ok RobBot? Have you not noticed that I asked you a completely different question, unrelated to HCQ, repeatedly, a few posts ago? You’re stuck on autopilot. Has anyone tried turning you off and on again?

“a mistake as the vax appears to be turning out to be more dangerous than the virus”. There really is no end to what they can convince you of now, is there? Once you get down that rabbit hole, you’re their bitch. They can tell you just about anything and you’ll lap it up.


----------



## RobUK

What convinced you that the virus was dangerous for your age group, was it the MSM or the NHS covid death stats?.
If it was the stats provided by the NHS that convinced you to get jabbed perhaps you should take a second look.

It appears you took a new untried jab with NO long term safety data because of a total covid associated death count of healthy individuals in your age group (*20 - 39)* in the whole of England of *53,* this on 13th Jan 2021 at the beginning of the vax rollout.
In the age group 40-59, *389* fit individuals died with covid, that`s a total of *389 + 56* = *445 *for the age group *0 - 59* in England.
There are over *15.5* million people aged *60* or over, making up 23% of the *UK population, *say 20% for England which equates to approximately *45 million* in the age group* 0 -60.*
The continuous covid propaganda presumably convinced you that you may be one of those unlucky individuals that might die of covid even though only *445* healthy poor soles had actually died of covid out of a *0 - 59* age group of a population of approx *45 million*, that`s a *0.00098%* chance of dying from covid, that`s almost *zero* and you got jabbed for that. Forgot the 6 in the 0 -16 age group.


----------



## Spandex

I swear if we took everyone who used the acronym ‘MSM‘ as a pejorative and fired them into the sun, the average IQ of the planet would shoot up.

So, according to your amusingly amateurish screenshot, you’ve investigated how many people have died of covid.. So now you need to show me the evidence that more people have died from the vaccine. Because that’s what you said, right? The vaccine is more dangerous than the virus? Time to back that up.


----------



## E.L.Wisty

The most recent "The Life Scientific" (BBC R4) was interesting, though I only caught the first 10 minutes; covering how they approached the testing of promising solutions early on in the pandemic. Apparently they included HCQ but found it was not in the slightest bit effective. Podcast here.

[Doctor and drug-trial designer Martin Landray who as Professor of Medicine and Epidemiology at Oxford University, devised the protocol, or blueprint, for the world’s largest drug trial for Covid-19.]


----------



## RobUK

No Spandex, I tried to show you that at the time you decided to take the fast tracked untested vax with no long term safety data you made that decision on the relentless garbage spewed out by MSM and the BBC talking heads not on the freely available data available from the NHS. Had you looked at that data ( *0.00098%* chance of dying from covid ) even you would not I believe have taken the jab, I may in your case be wrong though.
All those that died of that virus received NO treatment prior to hospital and little once they were in there other than Medazepam which is mainly used in operations and is also an end of life drug, strange how the NHS got through a 2 two year supply of that drug between Jan and October 2020 when a large number of operations were cancelled.









You gave up two years of your life because Midazolam was used to prematurely end the lives of thousands who you were told had di


In March 2020 the British people were told that they must “stay at home” in order to “protect the NHS”




ac.news






E.L.Wisty said:


> The most recent "The Life Scientific" (BBC R4) was interesting, though I only caught the first 10 minutes; covering how they approached the testing of promising solutions early on in the pandemic. Apparently they included HCQ but found it was not in the slightest bit effective. Podcast here.
> 
> [Doctor and drug-trial designer Martin Landray who as Professor of Medicine and Epidemiology at Oxford University, devised the protocol, or blueprint, for the world’s largest drug trial for Covid-19.]


Martin Landray and the Uk Recovery Trial.
HCQ is most effective early in the disease, it is of little use late in the illness after the virus has overwhelmed the host unless used with ZINC.
The dosage used across the world is approx 200mg twice daily with zinc sulphate at 100mg daily for 7 - 8 days, just like Tamiflu the med must be started as soon as symptoms appear for maximum efficacy. 
Martin Landray`s killer study unlike the rest of the worlds 3.2 grams used 9.2 grams over 10 days, they gave it to elderly extremely ill patients LATE in the illness when they new it would have little effect. Read the link yourself then do some independent research, 4 grams max is considered as within safety limits. Do yourself a favour, forget the BBC it`s a propaganda machine.









WHO "Solidarity" and UK "Recovery" Clinical Trials of Hydroxychloroquine using Potentially Fatal Doses


By Meryl Nass, MD [Editor’s note: It should be noted that Dr Nass’s first objective has been achieved as following the publication of this article the WHO have halted these lethal trials.] Updates can be found here. The Solidarity Trial...



www.ageofautism.com





Oxford, Recovery et Solidarity : Overdosage in two clinical trials with acts considered criminal? | FranceSoir


----------



## Spandex

Post your evidence. If you think you’ve already posted it, it will take you no time at all to copy and paste. Even with your computer skills.

As for ‘untested’, stop making stuff up. I know it was tested, you know it was tested and everyone else knows it was tested. So why do you spout this bullshit? Have a bit of self respect. Idiot.


----------



## RobUK

"As for ‘untested’, stop making stuff up."

Pfizer Documents show Pfizer made its vaccine appear more effective than it was

With links.

*Relative Risk*, how to turn a 1.4% benefit into a 34% benefit. *BMJ 2007* 

Statin manufacturers have capitalized on this in their TV and media
blitz in the United States because of the power of direct to consumer
advertising. For example, you could be told of a statin that is safe and
will significantly "reduce the risk" of having a heart attack if taken
every day for the next five years. A study is cited showing that over
five years, patients on this statin had 34% fewer heart attacks than
controls on a placebo, which is correct, since this is relative risk
reduction. What you are not told is that 2.7% of patients on the drug had
a heart attack compared to 4.1% on placebos, so that the *absolute risk
reduction is only 1.4%. *









Statins, Statistics And Saving Lives







www.bmj.com


----------



## Spandex

1. This doesn’t show it was untested. My original point stands - You deliberately lie.
2. That link references an anonymous Twitter user and a sociologist. it’s about as convincing as all the other dumb things you’ve written though, I guess.

And you’ve still not shown that the vaccine is more dangerous than the virus, which is what you originally claimed. Come on, it should be easy - just show me the same data you used to come to that conclusion.


----------



## RobUK

Two examples,








Dad 'paralysed by Covid jab' wins £120k payout in UK first


Anthony Shingler's family have been campaigning for people who have fallen ill after taking the vaccine




www.stokesentinel.co.uk










Read the piece below then revisit my earlier post relating to actual NHS data, 0.00098% of dying from covid in the age group 0 - 59, will you vax your kids Spandex.









Warning for teenagers as vaccine deaths overtake Covid - The Conservative Woman


Warning for teenagers as vaccine deaths overtake Covid




www.conservativewoman.co.uk





My near neighbour's 70 year fit brother died 1 week after his first jab, blood clot in the brain.
My Brother in law hospitalised after his second jab, blood clots in heart and lungs, he survived.
In your world these are just isolated incidents.









Dr. Peter McCullough, MD, MPH, Jun 27, 2022 Texas Senate HHS Testimony


Peter A. McCullough, MD, MPH, Texas Senate Testimony, Health and Human Services Committee, "Lessons Learned on Pandemic Response" June 27,2022. Senator Lois Kolkhorst, Chair




rumble.com


----------



## Spandex

Let me get this straight. I asked you for evidence that the vaccine is more dangerous than the virus and the best you could manage was two people who may or may not have had a reaction to the vaccine. That’s it. Two people. Unless you think that the virus has only killed one person in the whole world, I’m not sure your two (potentially imaginary, given your willingness to tell outright lies) people is really the best evidence..


----------



## edwrai

RobUK said:


> Two examples,
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Dad 'paralysed by Covid jab' wins £120k payout in UK first
> 
> 
> Anthony Shingler's family have been campaigning for people who have fallen ill after taking the vaccine
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.stokesentinel.co.uk
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Read the piece below then revisit my earlier post relating to actual NHS data, 0.00098% of dying from covid in the age group 0 - 59, will you vax your kids Spandex.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Warning for teenagers as vaccine deaths overtake Covid - The Conservative Woman
> 
> 
> Warning for teenagers as vaccine deaths overtake Covid
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.conservativewoman.co.uk
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> My near neighbour's 70 year fit brother died 1 week after his first jab, blood clot in the brain.
> My Brother in law hospitalised after his second jab, blood clots in heart and lungs, he survived.
> In your world these are just isolated incidents.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Dr. Peter McCullough, MD, MPH, Jun 27, 2022 Texas Senate HHS Testimony
> 
> 
> Peter A. McCullough, MD, MPH, Texas Senate Testimony, Health and Human Services Committee, "Lessons Learned on Pandemic Response" June 27,2022. Senator Lois Kolkhorst, Chair
> 
> 
> 
> 
> rumble.com


This is anecdotal, conclusions can’t be drawn. Anecdotally I don’t know anyone that had the slightest issue from the vaccine. I do how know people that died of covid. 

Also I think your data set is using the non pre existing condition data set which is not very useful.

Honestly there is a really good more or less looking at these figures, worth a listen.









BBC Radio 4 - More or Less: Behind the Stats, Questioning claims about Covid and children


How likely are children to end up in hospital because of Covid? And how many have died?




www.bbc.co.uk






Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## Spandex

edwrai said:


> Also I think your data set is using the non pre existing condition data set which is not very useful.


I couldn’t be bothered to go there with him, but yes, it’s a common tactic of these nutters to randomly exclude anyone with pre-existing conditions from statistics in order to make numbers look better than they are.

It hasn’t occurred to RobBot that his idea of ‘facts’ are actually ‘Inferences’. He interprets data badly, then thinks his interpretation of the data is a ‘fact’ just because the data it was based on isn’t in dispute.


----------



## RobUK

Are these all nutters in your world Spandex.




__





Loading…






childrensunion.org





From Jan 2020 to Dec 2020 6,129 soles died supposedly of covid in England and Wales, that`s 0.01035% of the whole population of 59.2 million.

Deaths from influenza in England from years 2014 to 2018, no panic then. There never was a pandemic, you just thought there was.


----------



## RobUK

edwrai said:


> This is anecdotal, conclusions can’t be drawn. Anecdotally I don’t know anyone that had the slightest issue from the vaccine. I do how know people that died of covid.
> 
> Also I think your data set is using the non pre existing condition data set which is not very useful.
> 
> Honestly there is a really good more or less looking at these figures, worth a listen.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> BBC Radio 4 - More or Less: Behind the Stats, Questioning claims about Covid and children
> 
> 
> How likely are children to end up in hospital because of Covid? And how many have died?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.bbc.co.uk
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


"Also I think your data set is using the non pre existing condition data set which is not very useful"

So you want to vax all healthy kids from 0 to 19 with a new type of vax with *no long term safety data* because 280 pre existing and none pre existing children died *with* covid.
There are approx 13.2 million children between 0 - 19 in England, out of that number 380 died, 327 with underlying illness, that`s a 0.0029% chance of dying in that age group overall..
Would you want your heathy child to be vaxed with a chance of dying from covid of *0.00044%, *perhaps the risk benefit of those odds is acceptable to you..


----------



## Spandex

RobUK said:


> From Jan 2020 to Dec 2020 6,129 soles died supposedly of covid in England and Wales, that`s 0.01035% of the whole population of 59.2 million.


There were 69,771 deaths in England and Wales in 2020 where Covid was a factor. I can only assume your ‘data’ is carefully filtered to select only deaths where there were no factors other than Covid on the death certificate. I bet you didnt do that for the Flu death stats though, did you? No, those will be every death where Flu was a factor, won’t they? Because you cherry pick your data to prove whatever idiotic point you‘re trying to make at the time. There should be an IQ test before people are allowed access to the internet.

But let’s go with your incorrect 6129 figure for a second - how many people died from the vaccine in any given 12 month period? I know you’re desperately hoping I‘ll forget you said it, but you claimed the vaccine is more dangerous than the virus, so come on, let’s hear the numbers, chump.


----------



## edwrai

RobUK said:


> "Also I think your data set is using the non pre existing condition data set which is not very useful"
> 
> So you want to vax all healthy kids from 0 to 19 with a new type of vax with *no long term safety data* because 280 pre existing and none pre existing children died *with* covid.
> There are approx 13.2 million children between 0 - 19 in England, out of that number 380 died, 327 with underlying illness, that`s a 0.0029% chance of dying in that age group overall..
> Would you want your heathy child to be vaxed with a chance of dying from covid of *0.00044%, *perhaps the risk benefit of those odds is acceptable to you..


Really playing some mental gymnastics, to get from the data set you are using to 0-19 vaccinations.

To answer your question yes, I’m happy to have had my children vaccinated. I understand there is a very low risk to children in this age group, but this is not the reason for vaccine for the under 19s it’s many to reduce the spread I caught it myself from my unvaccinated at the time child who got it while in school. 


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## edwrai

Spandex said:


> There were 69,771 deaths in England and Wales in 2020 where Covid was a factor. I can only assume your ‘data’ is carefully filtered to select only deaths where there were no factors other than Covid on the death certificate. I bet you didnt do that for the Flu death stats though, did you? No, those will be every death where Flu was a factor, won’t they? Because you cherry pick your data to prove whatever idiotic point you‘re trying to make at the time. There should be an IQ test before people are allowed access to the internet.
> 
> But let’s go with your incorrect 6129 figure for a second - how many people died from the vaccine in any given 12 month period? I know you’re desperately hoping I‘ll forget you said it, but you claimed the vaccine is more dangerous than the virus, so come on, let’s hear the numbers, chump.


I think the figure stands at 9. 

But again I think he’s looking at the yellow card figures that include all deaths shortly after vaccination including if you fell in the shower for example.

ONS have a good blog post on this





__





How many people have died as a result of a COVID-19 vaccine? | National Statistical







blog.ons.gov.uk






Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## Spandex

edwrai said:


> But again I think he’s looking at the yellow card figures that include all deaths shortly after vaccination including if you fell in the shower for example.


I think you may be being a little optimistic in thinking that RobBot is looking at any figures at all when he makes these ridiculous claims. The yellow card figures are *still *significantly lower than RobBots artificially low covid death count. So even if you use his own completely innacurate figures, it doesn't come close to proving his stupid point.


----------



## edwrai

Spandex said:


> I think you may be being a little optimistic in thinking that RobBot is looking at any figures at all when he makes these ridiculous claims. The yellow card figures are *still *significantly lower than RobBots artificially low covid death count. So even if you use his own completely innacurate figures, it doesn't come close to proving his stupid point.


Normally the figures banded around from the tin hat brigade are based on something but usually completely out of context, but yes sometimes it’s all based on Chinese whispers from the internet 







Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## RobUK

"Normally the figures banded around from the tin hat brigade are based on something but usually completely out of context"
.................................................................................................................................................................................................

Age groups 2020.

"*21.3%* of the overall population of England and Wales was aged under 18 years, 29.5% was aged 18 to 39 years",

That`s approximately *13 million* children under 19 in England, at Dec 2020, over an approximate period of 12 months *6 healthy children had died* of covid flu, *NHS numbers.*
By April 2022 *29* healthy children had died of covid flu, which you were told was the *worst pandemic* since 1918, *29 healthy children* out of almost *13 million* and you want to vax all that age group with an mRNA DNA altering vax with NO long term safety data just to supposedly protect *29* children who may have died of covid, wow.

All data directly from the NHS, no figures banded around from this guy. Haiti 1.4% vaxed UK 80% vaxed.


----------



## edwrai

RobUK said:


> "Normally the figures banded around from the tin hat brigade are based on something but usually completely out of context"
> .................................................................................................................................................................................................
> 
> Age groups 2020.
> 
> "*21.3%* of the overall population of England and Wales was aged under 18 years, 29.5% was aged 18 to 39 years",
> 
> That`s approximately *13 million* children under 19 in England, at Dec 2020, over an approximate period of 12 months *6 healthy children had died* of covid flu, *NHS numbers.*
> By April 2022 *29* healthy children had died of covid flu, which you were told was the *worst pandemic* since 1918, *29 healthy children* out of almost *13 million* and you want to vax all that age group with an mRNA DNA altering vax with NO long term safety data just to supposedly protect *29* children who may have died of covid, wow.
> 
> All data directly from the NHS, no figures banded around from this guy.


Soooo RNA or messenger RNA (mRNA) is created from information in DNA in no way can RNA affect your DNA, that’s GCSE level science.

Learn more about this here 





__





Translation: DNA to mRNA to Protein


Genes encode proteins, and the instructions for making proteins are decoded in two steps: first, a messenger RNA (mRNA) molecule is produced through the transcription of DNA, and next, the mRNA serves as a template for protein production through the process of translation. The mRNA specifies, in...



www.nature.com





The point of vaccination for the 5-19 cohort is to reduce infection in other cohorts. 

Learn more about why vaccines are important here









Why vaccination is safe and important


Read about how vaccines work, what they contain and the most common side effects.




www.nhs.uk






Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## edwrai

RobUK said:


> "Normally the figures banded around from the tin hat brigade are based on something but usually completely out of context"
> .................................................................................................................................................................................................
> 
> Age groups 2020.
> 
> "*21.3%* of the overall population of England and Wales was aged under 18 years, 29.5% was aged 18 to 39 years",
> 
> That`s approximately *13 million* children under 19 in England, at Dec 2020, over an approximate period of 12 months *6 healthy children had died* of covid flu, *NHS numbers.*
> By April 2022 *29* healthy children had died of covid flu, which you were told was the *worst pandemic* since 1918, *29 healthy children* out of almost *13 million* and you want to vax all that age group with an mRNA DNA altering vax with NO long term safety data just to supposedly protect *29* children who may have died of covid, wow.
> 
> All data directly from the NHS, no figures banded around from this guy. Haiti 1.4% vaxed UK 80% vaxed.
> View attachment 488519


Also Haiti is an interesting one. Most likely a few factors here.

1. Lack of accurate reporting, due to the country being in a state of crisis. Haiti has continuously struggled to meet the basic needs of its people so covid reporting may not be a priority.

2. The median age is 24, for comparison the UK is 40.5 Italy is 47.3. 

3. Only 4.5% of the population is over 65, the UK this number is 19%.

4. Life expectancy is only 64 years in Halti it’s 81.7 in the UK. 


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## RobUK

"2. The median age is 24, for comparison the UK is 40.5 Italy is 47.3.

3. Only 4.5% of the population is over 65, the UK this number is 19%.

4. Life expectancy is only 64 years in Halti it’s 81.7 in the UK"

You finally got it, the young don`t die of covid and by taking Hydroxychloroquine weekly as protection against malaria neither do the elderly in Haiti, Nigeria, Uganda and many other Central African country`s.
You forgot that Haiti has the worst GDP in the western hemisphere, it has one of the highest population density's in the world, it`s infrastructure has been destroyed by two earth quakes in the last 12 years, it`s heath service is almost none existent and it has endemic malaria, that`s the reason the WHO thought Haiti would be hit hard and it wasn`t. 

Whether HCQ protected these African country`s or their young age is debatable, what is not debatable is that in 1918 there was still Endemic malaria in those country`s but the populations at that time did not have access to quinine and over 2% of those populations died from Spanish flu. Early treatment is the key to saving lives. https://babel.hathitrust.org/cgi/pt?id=hvd.32044103087086&view=1up&seq=247;attachment=0


----------



## Spandex

RobBot also believes North Korea has only had a handful of Covid deaths… I think they’ve prescribed ‘tea’.


----------



## edwrai

RobUK said:


> "2. The median age is 24, for comparison the UK is 40.5 Italy is 47.3.
> 
> 3. Only 4.5% of the population is over 65, the UK this number is 19%.
> 
> 4. Life expectancy is only 64 years in Halti it’s 81.7 in the UK"
> 
> You finally got it, the young don`t die of covid and by taking Hydroxychloroquine weekly as protection against malaria neither do the elderly in Haiti, Nigeria, Uganda and many other Central African country`s.
> You forgot that Haiti has the worst GDP in the western hemisphere, it has one of the highest population density's in the world, it`s infrastructure has been destroyed by two earth quakes in the last 12 years, it`s heath service is almost none existent and it has endemic malaria, that`s the reason the WHO thought Haiti would be hit hard and it wasn`t.
> 
> Whether HCQ protected these African country`s or their young age is debatable, what is not debatable is that in 1918 there was still Endemic malaria in those country`s but the populations at that time did not have access to quinine and over 2% of those populations died from Spanish flu. Early treatment is the key to saving lives. https://babel.hathitrust.org/cgi/pt?id=hvd.32044103087086&view=1up&seq=247;attachment=0
> View attachment 488540


Firstly it’s common knowledge that the death toll for covid is mainly in the over 65s. 

Quinine isn’t a very good anti malaria drug, and has loads of side effects. 

Using it for covid has been very much disproved, it came about as it was effect when used in a Petri dish of covid cell, but so would battery acid or bleach. 

Quinine may cause blurred vision and may impair your thinking or reactions, any chance you’ve been taking quinine Rob?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## RobUK

edwrai said:


> Firstly it’s common knowledge that the death toll for covid is mainly in the over 65s.
> 
> Quinine isn’t a very good anti malaria drug, and has loads of side effects.
> 
> Using it for covid has been very much disproved, it came about as it was effect when used in a Petri dish of covid cell, but so would battery acid or bleach.
> 
> Quinine may cause blurred vision and may impair your thinking or reactions, any chance you’ve been taking quinine Rob?
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


We are taking about HCQ which is a safer derivative of quinine, quinine was all they had in 1918, it is also an anti viral as was shown in the study I posted.









Why the Gin and Tonic Was the British Empire’s Secret Weapon


The gin and tonic is having a moment. From Spain—where gin and tonics are practically the national drink—to our summer shores, the venerable G-and-T is...




slate.com





The Haiti population were not only treating Malaria with CQ but were at the same time inadvertently treating covid.

Haiti - FLASH : Health Alert of the Ministry of Health on the Coronavirus - HaitiLibre.com : Haiti news 7/7 

The Ministry calls that chloroquine is a drug used in Haiti in the treatment of malaria and invites the population to a rational use of this drug to avoid the development of antimicrobial resistance.

The *UAE* covid death Rates, deaths *2,322* out of *10.1 million population*, unlike the UK they treated covid* immediately symptoms occurred*, they did not wait *14 days* until you could not breath.
They treated with a number of drugs including *Chloroquine*, the UK banned our doctors from using this drug for covid.
Two actions caused the majority of the UK`s covid deaths, *NO early treatment* with anything and banning the off label use of HCQ.

You really should stop watching the BBC and the MSM in general, ( don`t have blind faith in your leaders).

To end, you should read this article below, this happened in the worlds second most prestigious medical journal, obviousely NO peer review.

Lancetgate: why was this “monumental fraud” not a huge scandal? | Dissident Voice


----------



## Spandex

RobBot, if HCQ is effective in treating covid then just PROVE IT. Stop dancing around the subject, with your circumstantial evidence, coincidences and suspicions.

You never actually offer proof for anything. You can’t prove HCQ works (because apparently the researchers all did the trials ‘wrong’). You can’t prove the vaccine is more dangerous than the virus. You can’t prove any of the things you say.


----------



## edwrai

Spandex said:


> RobBot, if HCQ is effective in treating covid then just PROVE IT. Stop dancing around the subject, with your circumstantial evidence, coincidences and suspicions.
> 
> You never actually offer proof for anything. You can’t prove HCQ works (because apparently the researchers all did the trials ‘wrong’). You can’t prove the vaccine is more dangerous than the virus. You can’t prove any of the things you say.


Lots of trails. All of which show it caused more harm than without using it.

I think again the confusion is caused by the fact that quinine works extremely well against covid when you are just testing with cells in a dish (in-vitro) and not all cells just certain cells and in a lot of case not human cells. This is the reason Trump mentioned it in one of his briefing at the start of the pandemic as there was hope it would be extremely effective, however in-vitro is not the human body.

Well-designed trials and retrospective studies with large sample size not only reported non-significant efficacy but also showed more cardiac adverse reactions. 









Chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine in the treatment of COVID-19: the never-ending story


The anti-malarial drugs chloroquine (CQ) and hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) have been suggested as promising agents against the new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 that induces COVID-19 and as a possible therapy for shortening the duration of the viral disease. The ...




www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov






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----------



## Spandex

edwrai said:


> Lots of trails. All of which show it caused more harm than without using it.


Yes, you and I know this, but RobBot always finds a reason why he can ignore any trial that doesn’t agree with him. What he can’t do though, is offer any actual proof to back up any of his claims. Everything is speculation, inference and circular arguments.


----------



## RobUK

"Yes, you and I know this, but RobBot always finds a reason why he can ignore any trial that doesn’t agree with him"








Every trial that has used HCQ early in the community, within 2-3 days of symptoms occurring has has showed benefit, the ONLY trials showing no benefit were either giving near to lethal doses ( Oxfords recovery trial) or were giving HCQ in the hospital environment. HCQ has little efficacy when given late in the illness. Look for yourself Spandex. Early treatment is *essential.*
b been


----------



## edwrai

RobUK said:


> "Yes, you and I know this, but RobBot always finds a reason why he can ignore any trial that doesn’t agree with him"
> View attachment 488678
> 
> 
> Every trial that has used HCQ early in the community, within 2-3 days of symptoms occurring has has showed benefit, the ONLY trials showing no benefit were either giving near to lethal doses ( Oxfords recovery trial) or were giving HCQ in the hospital environment. HCQ has little efficacy when given late in the illness. Look for yourself Spandex. Early treatment is *essential.*
> b been
> View attachment 488678


Jesus Rob make an effort, what on earth is that source. 


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----------



## RobUK

"Jesus Rob make an effort, what on earth is that source"

What you should remember is that the UK was the *only* country in the world that STOPPED doctors treating patients with flu like symptoms in the community, the trials listed in the link below show a positive result of up to 72% when the patient is *treated early* with HCQ, add zinc to the treatment and the efficacy improves further. Both the AEU, Switzerland and many other country's across the world used HCQ from the start, ask yourself why would they do that if the drug had no benefit.
I fail to see why you are so against an early treatment regime, maybe it is because you got sucked into the daily propaganda over this last two years and are now fully vaxed with a gene editing novel treatment, god knows what`s in it.
Even if HCQ were only 5% effective lives would have been saved especially as the drug has an impeccable safety profile.
The treatment for covid is the same as for Rheumatoid Arthritis and Lupus emeritus 400mg daily, in the case of covid the treatment lasts 7-10 days, for Arthritis and Lupus it can last for 20-30 years.

*WHO* (The cardiotoxicity of antimalarials WHO Evidence Review Group Meeting, 13–14 October 2016 Varembé Conference Centre, Geneva, Switzerland)

*4 Conclusions and recommendations*,

"Despite *hundreds of millions of doses* administered in the treatment of malaria, there have been *no reports of sudden unexplained death* associated with quinine, chloroquine or amodiaquine, although each drug causes QT/QTc interval prolongation".

The MSM didn`t mention that fact did they.

















COVID-19 early treatment: real-time analysis of 2,187 studies


COVID-19 early treatment: real-time analysis of 2,187 studies




c19early.com


----------



## RobUK

These are two real doctors treating real patients, Doctor Tyson was one of the very first to use HCQ, Doctor Fareed states his hero was Dr Zelenko, drag your self out of your box and venture into the real world.









The First Tyson/Fareed Study Text


Understand that I say "first" because I don't know that I won't just volunteer my time to sort through the rest of their data when there is a good moment. However, it feels like the world is moving too fast for now, and I can work nearly every waking hour and not come close to keeping up with...




roundingtheearth.substack.com





Make of this what you will.









Estimating Vaccine-Induced Mortality, Part I


The Chloroquine Wars Part LII




roundingtheearth.substack.com


----------



## Spandex

I'll make this simple for you RobBot. What you are posting is still not evidence. The fact that you think it is simply shows you're not mentally equipped to judge.

c19early.com is not a reliable source and, from a cursory glance, much of their positive outcomes for HCQ come from non-randomised retrospective studies. These are very challenging to include in meta analysis, and there's nothing about the methodology described on hcqmeta.com that fills me with any confidence in the quality of their work. Ignoring the retrospective studies, I skimmed through the list and selected a few of the randomised trials - they all showed no discernible effects. You should be very wary of positive outcomes that only show themselves in retrospective studies and suddenly become extremely shy whenever anyone does an actual randomised trial. It's not a good sign.

As for 'venturing into the real world' the irony is hilarious. You are literally spending all your time scouring the internet for anything (and I really mean anything - quality control is basically non-existent) that backs you up.


----------



## RobUK

"c19early.com is not a reliable source"

Its just a repository for the study`s and has all the links to them, early and late, good or bad, no idea why you cannot accept that or the fact that early treatment for any disease is advantageous. Even the deadly Oxford Recovery trial is in there I believe. Name calling only shows your immaturity, seems you have never grown up. 

"I skimmed through the list and selected a few of the randomized trials - they all showed no discernible effects". 

I assume they were all late study`s, most in an hospitalized environment or postal, I cannot understand why you are so vehemently against experienced doctors trying to save lives, sad really. 
Perhaps you could could post those study`s.


----------



## Spandex

RobUK said:


> "c19early.com is not a reliable source"
> 
> Its just a repository for the study`s and has all the links to them, early and late, good or bad, no idea why you cannot accept that or the fact that early treatment for any disease is advantageous. Even the deadly Oxford Recovery trial is in there I believe. Name calling only shows your immaturity, seems you have never grown up.


It’s not just a repository at all. The fact you think its just a repository is a clear sign that you simply don’t understand this as well as you think you do.

They are also processing the outcomes and presenting them in a simplified format that obscures the issues with the underlying data. And when you look at that data it becomes clear that the results of the meta analysis are massively skewed by the worryingly large number of non randomised retrospective studies included. In fact, I don’t believe there is a single randomised trial which produced positive effects. This should ring alarm bells for anyone reading that site, and the fact that it doesn’t for you is telling.

I‘m not name calling. You’re not a clever man, and under normal circumstances that would be fine. But in this discussion it is an important factor that can’t be glossed over. In short, the reason you’re making all these mistakes is because you’re not clever enough to understand that it’s happening, let alone work out how to avoid it. This isn’t an insult, it’s a fact.



RobUK said:


> "I skimmed through the list and selected a few of the randomized trials - they all showed no discernible effects".
> 
> I assume they were all late study`s,


No, they weren’t.


----------



## bobclive22

Spandex, forget the processing, that`s irrelevant, the site has all the links to ALL the study`s where anyone can read and decide for themselves the validity of those study`s and not just rely on the MSM`s take on it as you appear to do.

The UAE were aware that early treatment was essential and because of that they treated early, NOT so the UK.
The Oxford Recovery trial showed HCQ had little benefit when used late, this was also clearly shown within the list of study`s collected by c19early.com.

Perhaps you might post those outlier EARLY study`s that showed no discernible benefit.

"the results of the meta analysis are massively skewed by the worryingly large number of non randomised retrospective studies included".

Perhaps you might comment on the Oxford recovery trial and the Lancet fraud, one a world class university the other a world class medical journal. 

"the reason you’re making all these mistakes is because you’re not clever enough to understand that it’s happening",

I am still healthy and totally unjabbed, you on the other hand have that nasty little spike protein in your system busily altering your DNA, good luck with that.


----------



## Spandex

bobclive22 said:


> Spandex, forget the processing, that`s irrelevant, the site has all the links to ALL the study`s where anyone can read and decide for themselves the validity of those study`s and not just rely on the MSM`s take on it as you appear to do.
> 
> The UAE were aware that early treatment was essential and because of that they treated early, NOT so the UK.
> The Oxford Recovery trial showed HCQ had little benefit when used late, this was also clearly shown within the list of study`s collected by c19early.com.
> 
> Perhaps you might post those outlier EARLY study`s that showed no discernible benefit.
> 
> "the results of the meta analysis are massively skewed by the worryingly large number of non randomised retrospective studies included".
> 
> Perhaps you might comment on the Oxford recovery trial and the Lancet fraud, one a world class university the other a world class medical journal.
> 
> "the reason you’re making all these mistakes is because you’re not clever enough to understand that it’s happening",
> 
> I am still healthy and totally unjabbed, you on the other hand have that nasty little spike protein in your system busily altering your DNA, good luck with that.


Oh, this is brilliant... 'RobBot' accidentally signed in using his old BobBot account. "Healthy and unjabbed", but senility is clearly setting in... 

Nailed it:


Spandex said:


> Actually.. BobBot, is that you? No overlap in posting history, same chaotic style of posting, same obsession with constant posting of links without explanation and a willingness believe every fringe theory going. If you’re not BobBot, you must be his brother.


Well RobBotBobBot, the processing isn't irrelevant, because it's the processing that allows us to compare results from vastly differing studies where none of the parameters are remotely the same. That's the whole point of a meta analysis. Without the processing, you just have a list of studies that tells you next to nothing.

And yes, that site does have links to ALL (!) the studies, and unlike you, I've actually looked at some of them. Which is how I know that all the data where HCQ has a positive effect on outcomes is from non-randomised retrospective studies, whereas all the randomised trials reported no effect whatsoever. And if you had the first clue about any of this stuff, that would be waving red flags all over the place for you.

Proteins altering DNA? Have you been on the crack pipe again RobBotBobBot?


----------



## bobclive22

"Proteins altering DNA? Have you been on the crack pipe again RobBotBobBot?"

Time will tell Spandex, you will be part of the long term trial data.

Here is an early 2020 study, surprisingly the treatment was given late, ie in the hospital not in the community and still gave a positive result. 

"large-scale retrospective analysis of 2,541 patients hospitalized between March 10 and May 2, 2020 across the system’s six hospitals, the study found 13% of those treated with hydroxychloroquine alone died compared to 26.4% not treated with hydroxychloroquine".

Treatment with Hydroxychloroquine Cut Death Rate Significantly in COVID-19 Patients, Henry Ford Health System Study Shows

https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(20)30534-8/fulltext


----------



## Spandex

bobclive22 said:


> "Proteins altering DNA? Have you been on the crack pipe again RobBotBobBot?"
> 
> Time will tell Spandex, you will be part of the long term trial data.


Time will tell if proteins can change our DNA?? 

And I won’t be part of the long term trial data because I’m not part of a trial. You’re still struggling with the definitions here, aren’t you.


----------



## Spandex

Here you go, RobBotBobBot:









The anonymous meta-analysis that’s convincing people to use ivermectin


What happens when you leave the analysis out of a meta-analysis?




arstechnica.com




A useful explanation of what's wrong with the methods used by the suspiciously anonymous authors of the c19early website. I'd not seen this article before, but it confirms everything I suspected.



> So, to sum up: the methods the people behind the website are using appear to be badly flawed, and their approach appears to be biased toward producing positive results, even with treatments that are pretty clearly ineffective. They criticize other researchers for sticking with rigorous standards but wall themselves off from criticism for their lack of standards by remaining anonymous.


And whilst this article primarily refers to their Ivermectin research page, the 'researchers' and their methods are the same across the site.


----------



## Delta4

This must be the most entertaining thread on this forum, carry on.


----------



## bobclive22

Spandex said:


> Here you go, RobBotBobBot:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The anonymous meta-analysis that’s convincing people to use ivermectin
> 
> 
> What happens when you leave the analysis out of a meta-analysis?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> arstechnica.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> A useful explanation of what's wrong with the methods used by the suspiciously anonymous authors of the c19early website. I'd not seen this article before, but it confirms everything I suspected.
> 
> 
> 
> And whilst this article primarily refers to their Ivermectin research page, the 'researchers' and their methods are the same across the site.


*John Timmer* science editor, scraping the barrel there Spandex, did you forget about *Dr Tess Laurie.*

Tess Lawrie - Director - The Evidence-Based Medicine Consultancy Ltd | LinkedIn

Dr Tess Laurie interview with Dr Andrew Hill, (money is the cause of all evil), watch this, you might learn something usefull Spandex.

A letter from Dr Tess Lawrie to Dr Hill – a great short film (drtrozzi.org)

This is an open letter to the Lancet which used the same Surgisphere data as the now retracted NEJM study, NO request for data and obviously little or NO peer review by either journal and you question the validity of the study`s in c19early.com. 
.
I suggest you look at the signatory's, world class independent's brought that fraud to light. 





__





Major medical journals retract Covid-19 studies — MORU Tropical Health Network


On 4 June 2020, after a week of increasing scientific concern and scrutiny, first The Lancet, then the New England Journal of Medicine, retracted studies that were based on inaccessible data. The studies have been extremely damaging to chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine COVID-19 clinical trials...




www.tropmedres.ac









__





An open letter to Mehra et al and The Lancet


Open letter to MR Mehra, SS Desai, F Ruschitzka, and AN Patel, authors of “Hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine with or without a macrolide for treatment of COVID-19: a multinational registry analysis”. Lancet. 2020 May 22:S0140-6736(20)31180-6. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)31180-6. PMID: 32450107...




zenodo.org





If you have been vaxxed you are in the vaxxed leg, I am in the control, Pfizer’s trial ends on 15 May 2023.

Covid-19 vaccines and treatments: we must have raw data, now | The BMJ


----------



## Spandex

bobclive22 said:


> *John Timmer* science editor, scraping the barrel there Spandex


Bottom of the barrel? I mean, he definitely knows more than you… but then, a potato knows more than you.

”John is Ars Technica's science editor. He has a Bachelor of Arts in Biochemistry from Columbia University, and a Ph.D. in Molecular and Cell Biology from the University of California, Berkeley. John has done over a decade's worth of research in genetics and developmental biology at places like Cornell Medical College and the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center.”

Amazingly, without the slightest bit of irony, you’re questioning the qualifications of that journalist whilst simultaneously not caring that the authors of your favourite website are anonymous. They could literally be anyone, and you simply don’t care. Don’t you ever feel a bit embarrassed?



bobclive22 said:


> did you forget about *Dr Tess Laurie.*


Erm. Have you changed the subject yet again? What has she got to do with the c19early website - which is what we were just talking about, right? 



bobclive22 said:


> If you have been vaxxed you are in the vaxxed leg, I am in the control, Pfizer’s trial ends on 15 May 2023.
> 
> Covid-19 vaccines and treatments: we must have raw data, now | The BMJ


You still don’t get it, do you… the difference between a trial and a retrospective study. I’m not in a trial. If you can’t understand why, you’re a moron.


----------



## pcbbc

Keep up the good work Spandex, although I suspect there’s just no reasoning with some people.

I have a neighbour down the street who’s unfortunately deep down the conspiracy rabbit hole as well. He was telling me the other week that “Covid vaccine doesn’t work”. When I questioned him he replied, ”Well, name a single other vaccine that works against a virus?”. I responded with polio, smallpox, measles, etc. But he remained adamant that there wasn’t a single one.

It wasn’t until a couple of weeks later I realised where he had gone wrong, and where he had got his “facts” from. Obviously he’d been told (rightly) that antibiotics do not work against viruses! Unfortunately I haven’t seen him since in order to be able to correct his very basic misunderstanding that vaccine ≠ antibiotic.

The other one that got him was HPV vaccine, and that it can protect against cervical cancer, and genital warts and various other cancers in males and females. You can’t vaccinate against cancer apparently… only now we can.


----------



## edwrai

Spandex said:


> Bottom of the barrel? I mean, he definitely knows more than you… but then, a potato knows more than you.
> 
> ”John is Ars Technica's science editor. He has a Bachelor of Arts in Biochemistry from Columbia University, and a Ph.D. in Molecular and Cell Biology from the University of California, Berkeley. John has done over a decade's worth of research in genetics and developmental biology at places like Cornell Medical College and the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center.”
> 
> Amazingly, without the slightest bit of irony, you’re questioning the qualifications of that journalist whilst simultaneously not caring that the authors of your favourite website are anonymous. They could literally be anyone, and you simply don’t care. Don’t you ever feel a bit embarrassed?
> 
> 
> Erm. Have you changed the subject yet again? What has she got to do with the c19early website - which is what we were just talking about, right?
> 
> 
> You still don’t get it, do you… the difference between a trial and a retrospective study. I’m not in a trial. If you can’t understand why, you’re a moron.


I do think there is a terrifying level or misinformation and mistrust that creates this, I’ve know people over the years that have gone into cults or became obsessive over this stuff, there are normally a few factors. Drugs (especially cannabis), PTSD, stress, abuse, education. In my experience one or a combination of these are normally a factor in creating a level of mistrust or paranoia that leads to looking for an alternative reality, I also think for some it gives them a rush feeling that they have uncovered something no one’s else knows. 


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## bobclive22

"I do think there is a terrifying level or misinformation and mistrust that creates this."

Exactly, do you trust the Covid advice coming from governments of county`s that have high covid death levels or the advice from county`s that have low levels of Covid deaths.
Me I went with the Latter and obtained my stash of HCQ early, it`s all about choices, you either cross your fingers and wait and see or do something.


----------



## edwrai

bobclive22 said:


> "I do think there is a terrifying level or misinformation and mistrust that creates this."
> 
> Exactly, do you trust the Covid advice coming from governments of county`s that have high covid death levels or the advice from county`s that have low levels of Covid deaths.
> Me I went with the Latter and obtained my stash of HCQ early, it`s all about choices, you either cross your fingers and wait and see or do something.


Wow nice YouTube channel

I trust evidence based research and methodology. Please don’t tell me you take quinine!


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----------



## Spandex

bobclive22 said:


> Exactly, do you trust the Covid advice coming from governments of county`s that have high covid death levels or the advice from county`s that have low levels of Covid deaths.


So you’ve started trusting governments over scientific research? Good work RobBotBobBot.


----------



## bobclive22

1, No I took Hydroxychloroquine zinc sulfate and Doxycycline as my covid treatment.
2 "So you’ve started trusting governments over scientific research?" The scientific research at the time frames of those articles showed HCQ had benefit, but what was more important was that the disease should be treated *early* with any medication that showed efficacy. The advice to UK doctors was NOT to treat anyone with flu like symptoms in the community,* NO* other country in the world imposed that restriction on doctors. There were no vaccines until Jan 2021 in the UK, tens of thousands died because of that mandate. 

The Pic below is from a UK consultant.


----------



## Spandex

bobclive22 said:


> The Pic below is from a UK consultant.


What are the odds… that consultant sent exactly the same email to RobUK.


----------



## edwrai

bobclive22 said:


> 1, No I took Hydroxychloroquine zinc sulfate and Doxycycline as my covid treatment.
> 2 "So you’ve started trusting governments over scientific research?" The scientific research at the time frames of those articles showed HCQ had benefit, but what was more important was that the disease should be treated *early* with any medication that showed efficacy. The advice to UK doctors was NOT to treat anyone with flu like symptoms in the community,* NO* other country in the world imposed that restriction on doctors. There were no vaccines until Jan 2021 in the UK, tens of thousands died because of that mandate.
> 
> The Pic below is from a UK consultant.
> View attachment 488934


I could understand this view over 2 years ago, but the weight of evidence is now so great there is 0 doubt in the conclusion. I’m very confused by why you are pushing this narrative. 


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## Spandex

edwrai said:


> I could understand this view over 2 years ago, but the weight of evidence is now so great there is 0 doubt in the conclusion.


This is his standard behaviour. If you ask him about climate change (dear god, don’t actually do it), he bangs on about the ‘climategate’ email leaks from 13 years ago, as though no one has bothered looking at the data at all since then.

Basically, he's just trying to deceive people. He knows there’s loads of evidence that counters his views, but he deliberately avoids talking about it. Ask him specific questions about specific evidence and he will just reply with something new, and about a million links to random youtube videos. He does it on purpose to try to baffle people into not noticing that he dodged the question.

As for motives, in his mind he’s smart because he can see through the lies. So ultimately I think this is about ego. When you read his posts, they’re almost always about being able to see things others haven‘t, or about seeing the truth before everyone else. And because it’s all about ego, there is no way he will ever see that he’s wrong - his ego wouldn’t allow that. He is the absolute definition of the Dunning Kruger effect.


----------



## bobclive22

Edwrai _"I could understand this view over 2 years ago, but the weight of evidence is now so great there is 0 doubt in the conclusion. I’m very confused by why you are pushing this narrative"._

Obviously you couldn`t otherwise, you would question why Oxfords Recovery trial gave *lethal* doses of HCQ *late* in the illness when they were aware HCQ was most effective when given early and why the Lancet let that fraudulent Surgisphere study through into print.

Jan 2021, daughter tested Positive, wife and I had flu like symptoms, me 80 years old with 30% heart function, took course of HCQ spent 2 days in bed, wife 3 we recovered in less than 7 days, was that luck or the medication, who knows, did the med course cause us harm? NO, have we had flu since that time NO, did w social distance NO, did I where a mask never. Having belief in HCQ enabled my wife and I to live normally throughout this contrived pandemic, how about you.

Spandex,
The UK directive to general practitioners was *NOT* to visit or treat anyone with flu like symptoms in the community including nursing homes, every other country in the world did the opposite, those country`s I listed used HCQ as part of that early treatment, they also had far lower fatalities.

"_When you read his posts, they’re almost always about *being able to see things others haven‘t*, or about seeing the truth before everyone else_".

Those early HCQ country posts appear to show the *exact* opposite Here is another early post, you will know of this author.
Dr Roy Spencer initiated my research.





__





 Hydroxychloroquine Now Being Advocated to Fight Coronavirus; Trump Supporting? « Roy Spencer, PhD






www.drroyspencer.com





The original link below is no more.




__





Chloroquine for COVID19


Prevention & Treatment of COVID19 using Chloroquine




web.archive.org





Lupus, April 2020

Lupus and COVID-19: What You Need to Know Live Webcast - YouTube start 3:30 mins.

You see Spandex, my research started early.


----------



## Spandex

bobclive22 said:


> Jan 2021, daughter tested Positive, wife and I had flu like symptoms, me 80 years old with 30% heart function, took course of HCQ spent 2 days in bed, wife 3 we recovered in less than 7 days, was that luck or the medication, who knows, did the med course cause us harm? NO, have we had flu since that time NO, did w social distance NO, did I where a mask never. Having belief in HCQ enabled my wife and I to live normally throughout this contrived pandemic, how about you.


You might as well just write, “I don’t understand probability”.


bobclive22 said:


> You see Spandex, my research started early.


Lol. ‘Research’. No wonder you have so little respect for scientists when you think what you‘re doing is ‘research’. You’re an unqualified, uneducated pensioner who can’t even remember what he’s posted before and which account he’s using. You’re not ‘doing research’. I wouldn’t even trust you to spell ‘research‘ correctly three times in a row.


----------



## bobclive22

_Lol. ‘Research’. No wonder you have so little respect for scientists when you think what you‘re doing is ‘research’. You’re an unqualified, uneducated pensioner who can’t even remember what he’s posted before and which account he’s using. You’re not ‘doing research’. I wouldn’t even trust you to spell ‘research‘ correctly three times in a row".

"No wonder you have so little respect for scientists, what scientist, name some"._

Perhaps this interview with one of the top Lupus specialists might wake up your one brain cell.

All those country`s I listed gave HCQ as part of their early treatment regime, Doctor Wallace noticed HCQ appeared to give protection but you ignored all this early evidence and got yourself jabbed with a secret concoction of god knows what, the sheep dog didn`t have much trouble guiding you through the gate did it.

Why Lupus Patients May Hold The Key To Whether Hydroxychloroquine Could Work - Part 2 - YouTube 
April 2020


----------



## Spandex

Thats from over two years ago… so, instead of posting the speculation about whether it *could *work, why didn’t you post their conclusion?


----------



## edwrai

bobclive22 said:


> _Lol. ‘Research’. No wonder you have so little respect for scientists when you think what you‘re doing is ‘research’. You’re an unqualified, uneducated pensioner who can’t even remember what he’s posted before and which account he’s using. You’re not ‘doing research’. I wouldn’t even trust you to spell ‘research‘ correctly three times in a row".
> 
> "No wonder you have so little respect for scientists, what scientist, name some"._
> 
> Perhaps this interview with one of the top Lupus specialists might wake up your one brain cell.
> 
> All those country`s I listed gave HCQ as part of their early treatment regime, Doctor Wallace noticed HCQ appeared to give protection but you ignored all this early evidence and got yourself jabbed with a secret concoction of god knows what, the sheep dog didn`t have much trouble guiding you through the gate did it.
> 
> Why Lupus Patients May Hold The Key To Whether Hydroxychloroquine Could Work - Part 2 - YouTube
> April 2020


Doctor Oz is also know for baseless bollocks

A 2014 study in the peer-reviewed British Medical Journal found that of 40 randomly selected episodes from Oz's television show, his health recommendations were based on evidence just 46% of the time. 









Dr. Oz is running for US Senate in Pennsylvania. Here are 8 times he's made false or baseless medical claims.


Dr. Oz has an Ivy-League medical degree, the trust of President Donald Trump, and a history of supporting misleading or downright false claims.




www.businessinsider.com





And here is that study from the BMJ









Televised medical talk shows—what they recommend and the evidence to support their recommendations: a prospective observational study


Objective To determine the quality of health recommendations and claims made on popular medical talk shows. Design Prospective observational study. Setting Mainstream television media. Sources Internationally syndicated medical television talk shows that air daily ( The Dr Oz Show and The...




www.bmj.com






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----------



## edwrai

bobclive22 said:


> _Lol. ‘Research’. No wonder you have so little respect for scientists when you think what you‘re doing is ‘research’. You’re an unqualified, uneducated pensioner who can’t even remember what he’s posted before and which account he’s using. You’re not ‘doing research’. I wouldn’t even trust you to spell ‘research‘ correctly three times in a row".
> 
> "No wonder you have so little respect for scientists, what scientist, name some"._
> 
> Perhaps this interview with one of the top Lupus specialists might wake up your one brain cell.
> 
> All those country`s I listed gave HCQ as part of their early treatment regime, Doctor Wallace noticed HCQ appeared to give protection but you ignored all this early evidence and got yourself jabbed with a secret concoction of god knows what, the sheep dog didn`t have much trouble guiding you through the gate did it.
> 
> Why Lupus Patients May Hold The Key To Whether Hydroxychloroquine Could Work - Part 2 - YouTube
> April 2020


Also after this he made a statement that:

“ it’s better to wait for randomized clinical trials.”









Dr. Oz Now Says Of COVID-19 Treatment Hydroxychloroquine: “We Are Better Off Waiting”


After weeks of being a booster of the use of hydroxychloroquine as a potential treatment for coronavirus, celebrity doctor Mehmet Oz now says it’s better to wait for randomized clinical trial…




deadline.com






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## Spandex

If you want to understand RobBotBobBots motives, this right here reveals a lot:


bobclive22 said:


> the sheep dog didn`t have much trouble guiding you through the gate did it.


A huge influence on his decision making process is ‘not following the crowd’. He thinks there’s genuine virtue in that, in and of itself. He starts with the overriding certainty that the majority, or the mainstream, will be wrong about any given topic and that inflexible belief clouds every judgement he makes.

The reality is that most of us aren’t qualified or in a position to do actual research into this topic, so we’re all just getting the ‘executive summary’ and following other peoples advice. The difference is though, that most people understand that, whereas RobBotBobBot genuinely believes he’s avoided that ‘trap‘ and is working all this stuff out for himself. Instead, he’s just being told what to think by a different group of people. Unfortunately, he’s _just_ stupid enough to be convinced that he’s clever.

<edit> Sorry RobBotBobBot, I missed this earlier:


bobclive22 said:


> _what scientist, name some_


Why do you want me to name scientists?


----------



## bobclive22

_"Unfortunately, he’s just stupid enough to be convinced that he’s clever". _

I am still alive, fit and unjabbed, you on the other hand.

Read the article, check it`s validity by downloading the UK data link below and verify, you can do that, yes.

Watch the interview with Dr Harvey Risch, explaining why mRNA vaccines are failing, then come back with some rational comments, if that is at all possible.









While you were distracted by Boris resigning & a “Doomsday” Heatwave, the UK Gov. quietly published data confirming the Triple Vaccinated account for 91% of COVID Deaths since the beginning of 2022


The British public has been distracted for the past week with non-stop news of Boris Johnson’s resignation as Prime Minister of the UK, speculation over who might replace him, and doomsday sc…




expose-news.com







https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/deathsbyvaccinationstatusengland/deathsoccurringbetween1january2021and31may2022/referencetable06072022accessible.xlsx



Yale Prof. Dr. Harvey Risch: Vaccinated People Getting COVID at Higher Rates Than the Unvaccinated July 17th 2022


----------



## Spandex

bobclive22 said:


> _"Unfortunately, he’s just stupid enough to be convinced that he’s clever". _
> 
> I am still alive, fit and unjabbed, you on the other hand.
> 
> Read the article, check it`s validity by downloading the UK data link below and verify, you can do that, yes.
> 
> Watch the interview with Dr Harvey Risch, explaining why mRNA vaccines are failing, then come back with some rational comments, if that is at all possible.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> While you were distracted by Boris resigning & a “Doomsday” Heatwave, the UK Gov. quietly published data confirming the Triple Vaccinated account for 91% of COVID Deaths since the beginning of 2022
> 
> 
> The British public has been distracted for the past week with non-stop news of Boris Johnson’s resignation as Prime Minister of the UK, speculation over who might replace him, and doomsday sc…
> 
> 
> 
> 
> expose-news.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/deathsbyvaccinationstatusengland/deathsoccurringbetween1january2021and31may2022/referencetable06072022accessible.xlsx
> 
> 
> 
> Yale Prof. Dr. Harvey Risch: Vaccinated People Getting COVID at Higher Rates Than the Unvaccinated July 17th 2022


See what I mean... Just stupid enough.

First of all, 'the vaccinated' make up the vast majority of the population, and that percentage goes up when you select for the most vulnerable people in the country, so it's expected that the majority of covid deaths will be amongst the vaccinated. If 100% of the population was vaccinated then guess what? 100% of covid deaths would be people who were vaccinated. Secondly, you would also expect the vaccinated to catch covid at a higher rate than unvaccinated, because people who are vaccinated are unlikely to be taking many, if any, precautions against catching it. That, after all, was the whole point of the vaccine, no?

So yes, the data is all available to be downloaded by anyone, regardless of their intelligence (as confirmed by this forums village idiot, RobBotBobBot). But drawing valid conclusions from that data is clearly not something that should be left to anyone (as confirmed by this forums village idiot, RobBotBobBot).

For the record, I'm also alive (although I don't think that's a requirement to win an argument against you) and I'm also fit and healthy. I've been vaccinated against a wide range of diseases during my life, as have you, I suspect, and am all the better for it, thanks.


----------



## bobclive22

No comment regarding Dr Risch, how about Dr McCullough. 









PART 1: Dr. Peter McCullough—The Inexplicable Suppression of Hydroxychloroquine, Ivermectin, and Oth


EPOCHTV - “There’s been no monthly review of new therapies. There’s been no monthly review of data safety and efficacy for the vaccines. Nothing. Americans for two years have been stonewalled on any scientific information on COVID-19.” In this tw…




www.bitchute.com




see 37: 00, This was evil, there always was early treatment.


----------



## Spandex

bobclive22 said:


> No comment regarding Dr Risch, how about Dr McCullough.


You do realise I’m not watching any of your videos? The fact you honestly thought anyone had enough respect for you to sit through an hour of that is, frankly, laughable.


----------



## bobclive22

Spandex said:


> You do realise I’m not watching any of your videos? The fact you honestly thought anyone had enough respect for you to sit through an hour of that is, frankly, laughable.


Dumb and Dumber,

Study below 2009.

Same viral family, Coronavirus OC43 uses same P2 receptor and relys an the same acidic step as Cov2, chloroquine is a zinc ionophore and increasing introcellular zinc inhibits viral polymerase RdRp replicase. If it works for sars and mers it works for ALL corona viruses including influenza. As I have repeatedly told you Spandex All in the community treatment for covid was banned by the UK, no other country implemented that draconian ruling, the intention was to terrify the UK population into believing this virus was more dangerous than it was and the only protection was the vax, certainly worked on you.

"Although coronaviruses have been recognized as human
pathogens for about 50 years, no effective treatment strategy
has been APPROVED". ( this does NOT mean there is NO treatment )

Antiviral Activity of Chloroquine against Human Coronavirus OC43
Infection in Newborn Mice
Els Keyaerts, Sandra Li, Leen Vijgen, Evelien Rysman, Jannick Verbeeck,
Marc Van Ranst,* and Piet Maes
Laboratory of Clinical Virology, Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Rega Institute for Medical Research,
University of Leuven, Leuven, Belgium
Received 12 November 2008/Returned for modification 24 December 2008/Accepted 9 April 2009



https://journals.asm.org/doi/pdf/10.1128/AAC.01509-08?download=true


----------



## edwrai

bobclive22 said:


> Dumb and Dumber,
> 
> Study below 2009.
> 
> Same viral family, Coronavirus OC43 uses same P2 receptor and relys an the same acidic step as Cov2, chloroquine is a zinc ionophore and increasing introcellular zinc inhibits viral polymerase RdRp replicase. If it works for sars and mers it works for ALL corona viruses including influenza. As I have repeatedly told you Spandex All in the community treatment for covid was banned by the UK, no other country implemented that draconian ruling, the intention was to terrify the UK population into believing this virus was more dangerous than it was and the only protection was the vax, certainly worked on you.
> 
> "Although coronaviruses have been recognized as human
> pathogens for about 50 years, no effective treatment strategy
> has been APPROVED". ( this does NOT mean there is NO treatment )
> 
> Antiviral Activity of Chloroquine against Human Coronavirus OC43
> Infection in Newborn Mice
> Els Keyaerts, Sandra Li, Leen Vijgen, Evelien Rysman, Jannick Verbeeck,
> Marc Van Ranst,* and Piet Maes
> Laboratory of Clinical Virology, Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Rega Institute for Medical Research,
> University of Leuven, Leuven, Belgium
> Received 12 November 2008/Returned for modification 24 December 2008/Accepted 9 April 2009
> 
> 
> 
> https://journals.asm.org/doi/pdf/10.1128/AAC.01509-08?download=true


Again in Vitro. Seriously there have been enough studies there is no doubt, there are a number of effect covid treats and most importantly a highly effective vaccine .

What you do need to watch out for is dihydrogen monoxide, it kills thousands every year!






__





Dihydrogen Monoxide Research Division - dihydrogen monoxide info


Dihydrogen Monoxide resources, information, research and more. Dihydrogen Monoxide is a dangerous chemical. Buy a Ban Dihydrogen Monoxide T-shirt.



www.dhmo.org






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----------



## bobclive22

"_Again in *Vitro*. Seriously there have been enough studies there is no doubt, there are a number of effect covid treats and most importantly a highly effective vaccine "._

Edwrai, did you actually read the study,

"In conclusion, we demonstrate here that chloroquine shows
strong in *vitro and in vivo* antiviral activities against *HCoV-
OC43*. Moreover, treatment with daily doses of chloroquine
has a long-lasting protective effect against lethal coronavirus
OC43 infection in newborn mice".

_"Most importantly a highly effective vaccine_" 
Where you need at least 4 doses which do not stop infection, transmission or hospitalisation, those near to useless vaccines were NOT available in the UK prior to Jan 2021. Over 77,000 deaths prior to the vaccine rollout and ALL in the community treatment banned.

*Water*

.


----------



## bobclive22

Zn2+ Inhibits Coronavirus and Arterivirus RNA Polymerase Activity _In Vitro_ and Zinc Ionophores Block the Replication of These Viruses in Cell Culture









Zn2+ Inhibits Coronavirus and Arterivirus RNA Polymerase Activity In Vitro and Zinc Ionophores Block the Replication of These Viruses in Cell Culture


Increasing the intracellular Zn[2+] concentration with zinc-ionophores like pyrithione (PT) can efficiently impair the replication of a variety of RNA viruses, including poliovirus and influenza virus. For some viruses this effect has been attributed ...




www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov





HCQ is a zinc ionophore.









Chloroquine Is a Zinc Ionophore


Chloroquine is an established antimalarial agent that has been recently tested in clinical trials for its anticancer activity. The favorable effect of chloroquine appears to be due to its ability to sensitize cancerous cells to chemotherapy, radiation ...




www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov





Teaching vid by Professor Roger Seheult, MD, if you don`t understand the above study the vid below will explain it.






*Zinc(II)—The Overlooked Éminence Grise of Chloroquine’s Fight against COVID-19? *









Zinc(II)—The Overlooked Éminence Grise of Chloroquine’s Fight against COVID-19?


Zn(II) is an inhibitor of SARS-CoV-2′s RNA-dependent RNA polymerase, and chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine are Zn(II) ionophores–this statement gives a curious mind a lot to think about. We show results of the first clinical trials on chloroquine (CQ) and hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) in the...




www.mdpi.com





When tens of thousands are dying there is no time for randomised trials, using placebo's is also unethical at that time.


----------



## bobclive22

Physicians work out treatment guidelines for coronavirus < Hospital < 기사본문 - KBR (koreabiomed.com)

Reference Medcram vid.

"However, if patients are old or have underlying conditions with serious symptoms, physicians should consider an antiviral treatment. If they decide to use the antiviral therapy, they *should start the administration as soon as possible*, the task force noted.

For the antiviral treatment, the doctors recommended lopinavir 400mg/ritonavir 100mg (Kaletra two tablets, twice a day) or chloroquine 500mg orally per day.

As chloroquine is not available in Korea, doctors could consider hydroxychloroquine 400mg orally per day, they said. There is no evidence that using lopinavir/ritonavir with chloroquine is more effective than monotherapies, they added".

출처 : KBR(KBR)


----------



## edwrai

bobclive22 said:


> Physicians work out treatment guidelines for coronavirus < Hospital < 기사본문 - KBR (koreabiomed.com)
> 
> Reference Medcram vid.
> 
> "However, if patients are old or have underlying conditions with serious symptoms, physicians should consider an antiviral treatment. If they decide to use the antiviral therapy, they *should start the administration as soon as possible*, the task force noted.
> 
> For the antiviral treatment, the doctors recommended lopinavir 400mg/ritonavir 100mg (Kaletra two tablets, twice a day) or chloroquine 500mg orally per day.
> 
> As chloroquine is not available in Korea, doctors could consider hydroxychloroquine 400mg orally per day, they said. There is no evidence that using lopinavir/ritonavir with chloroquine is more effective than monotherapies, they added".
> 
> 출처 : KBR(KBR)







__





Chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine for COVID-19: time to close the chapter | Postgraduate Medical Journal






pmj.bmj.com





It can be concluded now that 4-aminquinolines have some in vitro activity on SARS-CoV-2, but its efficacy on human disease is doubtful. It does not work for treatment of severe illness and does not prevent infection after high to moderate risk exposure. Its role in pre-exposure prophylaxis and treatment of mild-to-moderate disease remains to be investigated. As far as pre-exposure prophylaxis is concerned, other preventive methods exist which have proven efficacy,25 and exposing a large population to a potentially toxic drug when its benefits are not proven beyond doubts is not justified. The Indian Council of Medical Research recently published a case–control investigation asserting that four or more doses of hydroxychloroquine results in a significant decline in the odds of catching infection.26 Moreover, this study is severely limited by its design and case–control methodology. Recent practice guidelines by the American College of Physicians do not recommend chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine either for prophylaxis or treatment.27 Treatment of mild or moderate COVID-19 illness responds well to conservative therapy or approved antiviral agents, and the same logic as metioned earlier applies for not using hydroxychloroquine in this subset of patients as well. This becomes even more relevant because RECOVERY trial data have shown mortality benefit with dexamethasone, which is much cheaper, more easily available in and arrhythmic risk is least as compared to hydroxychloroquine. Finally, pursuing and investing in this direction does not appear to be prudent and it is time to close the chapter of 4-aminoquinolines for usage in COVID-19.


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## bobclive22

Chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine for COVID-19: time to close the chapter

Study is Dated August 2020, are you having a laugh, they site Oxfords disgraced Recovery trial where a lethal 9.2 gramms of HCQ was given to the most ill elderly patients. WHO`s SOLIDARITY trial used the same lethal dosage, India warned WHO the dosage was dangerous.
They missed out the Lancet HCQ fraud 5th June 2020, wonder why.


----------



## bobclive22

New Zealand an island nation and one of the most highly vaxxed in the world, also look at Australia, what happened.
































Why the Highly Vaccinated Are Seeing Higher Deaths: Dr. Robert Malone [Part 2]


Data on COVID-19 deaths are revealing a concerning trend, where higher death rates are being seen among the ...




www.theepochtimes.com


----------



## edwrai

bobclive22 said:


> New Zealand an island nation and one of the most highly vaxxed in the world, also look at Australia, what happened.
> View attachment 489132
> View attachment 489133
> View attachment 489134
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Why the Highly Vaccinated Are Seeing Higher Deaths: Dr. Robert Malone [Part 2]
> 
> 
> Data on COVID-19 deaths are revealing a concerning trend, where higher death rates are being seen among the ...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.theepochtimes.com


What’s happening is an incredibly low fatality rate, 1.56m cases and 1925 deaths.

Now look at Eastern European counties, low vaccine rates and incredibly high death rates, the only non Eastern European country in the top 12 is Peru. 

So the question is Clive are you mouth foaming loony or do you somehow benefit form systematically spreading miss information, what’s your motivation? 


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----------



## bobclive22

I would suggest you listen to this interview.

*Dr. Michael Yeadon, former chief scientific officer at Pfizer’s Global Allergy & Respiratory Research Department.*









The Epoch Times - Truth & Tradition. Fact Based. Unbiased. Accurate News


Reporting important news other media ignore. Clear, fact-based journalism without spin or hidden agendas: US, politics, China, world, opinion, business, science, art…




www.theepochtimes.com


----------



## Spandex

Isn’t that guy basically famous for making false claims about covid and the vaccine?


----------



## edwrai

Spandex said:


> Isn’t that guy basically famous for making false claims about covid and the vaccine?


And published in the epoch times, which is a looney paper pushing conspiracy theories and misinformation, that’s it’s literal operating model. 


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----------



## bobclive22

"Isn’t that guy basically famous for making false claims about covid and the vaccine?"

Do you mean by Big Pharma`s fact checkers, I would have thought *Dr. Yeadon`s* credentials and past experience might have given him credence.
In your W**e world any independent news outlet that prints anything that disagrees with the narrative is pushing conspiracy theory`s, the science is settled is it?. 

Covid Vax Mandate Itallian Lawsuit *Successful* data shows vax does not stop infection and is dangerous for some,* Dr. Reiner Fuellmich, *you really should watch this interview*.*

What are the contents of the vax, without the contents list there can be no informed consent, therefor you two took the vax on face value, good luck with that.









ITALY: Covid Vax Mandate Lawsuit Successful – Dr Reiner Fuellmich Interviews & Renate Holzeisein


The Florence Regional Court overturned Suspension of Psychologist (who was subject to mandatory vaccination) On Excellent Grounds. The judge explicitly identifies the mRNA injections as experimental.




rumble.com


----------



## bobclive22

*Dr** Shankara Chetty, South Africa.*









BRAVE PEOPLE - DR. SHANKARA CHETTY


Dr. Shankara Chetty is a Medical Doctor and Biological Scientist with over 30 years experience in Rural and Remote Primary Care. I personally think he is one of the bravest person I know. You can supp




rumble.com


----------



## edwrai

bobclive22 said:


> *Dr** Shankara Chetty, South Africa.*
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> BRAVE PEOPLE - DR. SHANKARA CHETTY
> 
> 
> Dr. Shankara Chetty is a Medical Doctor and Biological Scientist with over 30 years experience in Rural and Remote Primary Care. I personally think he is one of the bravest person I know. You can supp
> 
> 
> 
> 
> rumble.com


That’s such a strange website, truly truthiness.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Truthiness 


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## Spandex

bobclive22 said:


> "Isn’t that guy basically famous for making false claims about covid and the vaccine?"
> 
> Do you mean by Big Pharma`s fact checkers, I would have thought *Dr. Yeadon`s* credentials and past experience might have given him credence.


Lol. He literally is ‘big pharma’. Or did his retirement from the pharmaceutical industry suddenly make him trustworthy?

Most of your argument hinges on, “you can’t trust the pharmaceutical industry!” and yet, in a massive but totally in character fit of irony, you think the entire reason we should find Yeadon credible is because of his involvement in the pharmaceutical industry.

Whenever I talk to you, I have to keep reminding myself of Hanlon’s razor, which states, “never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity”.



bobclive22 said:


> What are the contents of the vax, without the contents list there can be no informed consent, therefor you two took the vax on face value, good luck with that.


I believe in probability, not luck. Based on the data, probability seems to be on my side in this one. You, on the other hand, prefer fringe theories so you constantly find yourself betting on the long shot.


----------



## edwrai

Spandex said:


> Lol. He literally is ‘big pharma’. Or did his retirement from the pharmaceutical industry suddenly make him trustworthy?
> 
> Most of your argument hinges on, “you can’t trust the pharmaceutical industry!” and yet, in a massive but totally in character fit of irony, you think the entire reason we should find Yeadon credible is because of his involvement in the pharmaceutical industry.
> 
> Whenever I talk to you, I have to keep reminding myself of Hanlon’s razor, which states, “never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity”.
> 
> 
> I believe in probability, not luck. Based on the data, probability seems to be on my side in this one. You, on the other hand, prefer fringe theories so you constantly find yourself betting on the long shot.


The ingredients are published, a very widely…









What are the ingredients in the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine?


The Pfizer BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine includes the following ingredients: Active Ingredient nucleoside-modified messenger RNA (modRNA) encoding the viral spike glycoprotein (S) of SARS-CoV-2 Lipi...




faqs.in.gov






Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## bobclive22

Are they the only ingredients, seems a Uruguayan judge and many independent researchers believe there are more.

Juez intimó al gobierno y a Pfizer a que presenten en 48 horas toda la información sobre las vacunas contra el covid-19 July 2nd 2022.

Why would Pfizer want to hide vaccine safety data for 75 years?.

*Judge scraps 75-year FDA timeline to release Pfizer vaccine safety data, giving agency eight months*









Judge scraps 75-year FDA timeline to release Pfizer vaccine safety data, giving agency eight months


The Food and Drug Administration won't have 75 years to release thousands of pages of documents it relied on to license its COVID-19 vaccine. Instead, the federal agency will have just over eight months to do so, per a federal judge's ruling.




www.washingtonexaminer.com





Interesting vid regarding side effects of your Pfizer ingredient list.






DR. RYAN COLE & DR. RICHARD URSO TESTIFY BEFORE TENNESSEE HOUSE HEALTH SUBCOMMITTEE

DR. RYAN COLE & DR. RICHARD URSO TESTIFY BEFORE TENNESSEE HOUSE HEALTH SUBCOMMITTEE 

Round 2, roll your sleeve up.



https://www.cbc.ca/radio/thecurrent/the-current-for-july-28-2022-1.6534022/people-at-risk-of-monkeypox-need-help-not-stigma-dr-anthony-fauci-1.6534028


----------



## edwrai

bobclive22 said:


> Are they the only ingredients, seems a Uruguayan judge and many independent researchers believe there are more.
> 
> Juez intimó al gobierno y a Pfizer a que presenten en 48 horas toda la información sobre las vacunas contra el covid-19 July 2nd 2022.
> 
> Why would Pfizer want to hide vaccine safety data for 75 years?.
> 
> *Judge scraps 75-year FDA timeline to release Pfizer vaccine safety data, giving agency eight months*
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Judge scraps 75-year FDA timeline to release Pfizer vaccine safety data, giving agency eight months
> 
> 
> The Food and Drug Administration won't have 75 years to release thousands of pages of documents it relied on to license its COVID-19 vaccine. Instead, the federal agency will have just over eight months to do so, per a federal judge's ruling.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.washingtonexaminer.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Interesting vid regarding side effects of your Pfizer ingredient list.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Round 2, roll your sleeve up.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/radio/thecurrent/the-current-for-july-28-2022-1.6534022/people-at-risk-of-monkeypox-need-help-not-stigma-dr-anthony-fauci-1.6534028


Yep and over turned within a few days and it was bat shit crazy. Seriously, all of this is bat shit crazy and I’m damn sure you know it. 


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## PineTree

I wonder when all this story with COVID will finally end. Just for real.


----------



## bobclive22

"I wonder when all this story with COVID will finally end. Just for real".

Not yet I am afraid, 5th Jab now offered for autumn, good luck with that.

LOCKDOWNS KILLED especially with the NO TREATMENT in the community of anyone with flu like symptoms, ie isolate for 14 days.
My doctor tenant recently stated that all UK doctors had to abide by the GMC directives, no treatment for covid infection in the community was one of them.

"Conclusions
While our understanding of viral transmission mechanisms leads to the assumption
that lockdowns may be an effective pandemic management tool, this assumption cannot
be supported by the evidence-based analysis of the present COVID-19 pandemic, as well
as of the 1918–1920 H1N1 influenza type-A pandemic (the Spanish Flu) and numerous
less-severe pandemics in the past. The price tag of lockdowns in terms of public health is
high: we estimate that, even if somewhat effective in preventing death caused by infection,
lockdowns may claim 20 times more life than they save. It is suggested therefore that a
thorough cost-benefit analysis should be performed before imposing any lockdown in the
future. Our conclusions are summarized in Table 2".





__





Loading…






mdpi-res.com


----------



## Spandex

bobclive22 said:


> 5th Jab now offered for autumn, good luck with that.


I wonder just how long we have to go on with no sign of these vaccine dangers before you finally admit they‘re safe. Surely eventually you’ll have to give up on the ‘no long term data’ rubbish - or will you always just claim that the impending disaster is just around the corner?



bobclive22 said:


> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Loading…
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> mdpi-res.com


MDPI is a fairly suspect publisher. The general consensus is that they make money by charging high publishing fees whilst having a pretty lightweight review process.


----------



## edwrai

Spandex said:


> I wonder just how long we have to go on with no sign of these vaccine dangers before you finally admit they‘re safe. Surely eventually you’ll have to give up on the ‘no long term data’ rubbish - or will you always just claim that the impending disaster is just around the corner?
> 
> 
> MDPI is a fairly suspect publisher. The general consensus is that they make money by charging high publishing fees whilst having a pretty lightweight review process.


MDPI's warehouse journals contain hundreds of lightly-reviewed articles that are mainly written and published for promotion and tenure purposes rather than to communicate science


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## bobclive22

You either believe dedicated honest scientists and physicians who have everything to loose or government talking heads and main stream media hacks, take your choice.

Forget about the messenger look at the data.









The Pfizer Inoculations Do More Harm Than Good


BREAKING: Pfizer's own 6 month report data on its COVID-19 inoculation shows that greater illness and death in the inoculation arm than the placebo arm. Plus, poor trial design, missing data, underpow




rumble.com





"*The claim by Pfizer was that the inoculations were safe and showed 95% efficacy 7 days after the 2nd dose. But that 95% was actually Relative Risk Reduction. Absolute Risk Reduction was only 0.84%. (Big Pharma always use the RR statistic in isolation to inflate the benefits) *









Massive Pfizer/FDA Corruption, Lethal Batches, and Autopsies Reveal COVID-19 Jab Genocide


(Corey Lynn) Not only were Pfizer’s trials a fraud, but the FDA knowingly approved it, putting millions of people at high risk. This report will show how autopsies reveal that the Covid-19 jabs are…




whiskeytangotexas.com








__





Loading…






www.canadiancovidcarealliance.org












The Pfizer Inoculations Do More Harm Than Good


BREAKING: Pfizer's own 6 month report data on its COVID-19 inoculation shows that greater illness and death in the inoculation arm than the placebo arm. Plus, poor trial design, missing data, underpow




rumble.com


----------



## Spandex

bobclive22 said:


> You either believe dedicated honest scientists and physicians who have everything to loose or government talking heads and main stream media hacks, take your choice.


And yet you are more than willing to ignore dedicated, honest scientists and physicians when they disagree with you. Which, lets face it, is most of them. You might like to dress this up as you and science on one side, and us and 'mainstream media hacks' on the other but that is, frankly, bollocks. You are anti-science. You're a tin foil hat wearing loony with a comically over-inflated opinion of your own intelligence. I genuinely pity any of your family and friends who have to humour you when you start off on your rambling nonsense (and they are just humouring you - notice how they don't really contribute much to the 'conversation' other than nodding along and agreeing? See how they just politely act shocked and surprised by your 'revelations', whilst suspiciously never really asking for more details?)


bobclive22 said:


> Forget about the messenger look at the data.
> "*The claim by Pfizer was that the inoculations were safe and showed 95% efficacy 7 days after the 2nd dose. But that 95% was actually Relative Risk Reduction. Absolute Risk Reduction was only 0.84%. (Big Pharma always use the RR statistic in isolation to inflate the benefits) *


As for the difference between RRR and ARR, what's your point? Yes, RRR sounds more impressive than ARR - that's to be expected, isn't it? But that doesn't mean RRR is a con, or a scam. It's a useful figure in calculating the efficacy of a vaccine, because what you often want to know is how well a vaccine works at preventing disease, in isolation from all the other factors that affect a persons likelihood of becoming infected in the first place, and of becoming ill from that infection. And 'big pharma' didn't use the RRR in isolation, they provided *both *figures (otherwise how do you know them?) - it's the press that only report the RRR because it makes for better headlines. Again, that's hardly unexpected - the Daily Fail has famously been telling us for decades about all the things that will give us cancer, based on cherry-picking results from isolated studies.

You know how anyone can tell you're a conspiracy nut? because your 'argument' is all over the place. There's no coherence - 'the virus isn't dangerous', 'the vaccine isn't effective', 'the vaccine is dangerous', 'the governments are covering up X, Y or Z', 'big pharma are manipulating it', etc. It's a scattergun approach because you don't actually know anything. You have no actual evidence for any of it, so you throw everything at the wall in the hope something sticks.

You were the same when you were talking about climate change. In one breath you'd be telling me the climate wasn't changing, and in another you'd be claiming the changes were natural cycles and not caused by humans. The contradiction was irrelevant to you because your aim was to just throw mud and sow seeds of doubt. And the thing is, you personally have nothing to gain from doing so - but you've been tricked into being a puppet for the people who do. You're fed talking points and arguments to use by all these dodgy websites you read and you parrot them (often copy/pasting without bothering to write anything yourself) like a good little boy.

BTW RobBotBobBot, just a little FYI for you - no one is reading your links. I mean, just look at those URLs...


----------



## bobclive22

"As for the difference between RRR and ARR, what's your point? Yes, RRR sounds more impressive than ARR - that's to be expected, isn't it? But that doesn't mean RRR is a con, or a scam. It's a useful figure in calculating the efficacy of a vaccine, because what you often want to know is how well a vaccine works at preventing disease",

"It's a useful figure in calculating the efficacy of a vaccine, because what you often want to know is how well a vaccine works at preventing disease, in isolation from all the other factors that affect a persons likelihood of becoming infected in the first place, and of becoming ill from that infection. And 'big pharma' didn't use the RRR in isolation, they provided *both *figures (otherwise how do you know them?)" 
Others had to dig deep, has any other number other than 95% been stated in the public domain or the MSM, if 95% efficacy were accurate why is the 5th jab needed for my age group.

When RR is used in* isolation* it provides a biased result as can be seen with the 95% RR and the 0.85 ARR efficacy of the Pfizer Jab, the same occurred with the dodgy Statin study`s.

Just for you Spandex, 1000 subjects are involved in a study, 500 in the treatment leg and 500 in the placebo leg, 1 dies in the treatment leg and two die in the placebo leg, RR is calulated at 50% benefit for that drug, 1/2 x 100 = 50%, the ACTUAL RISK REDUCTION ( ARR ) is 0.2%, ( 2/1000 x 100 = 0.2%. Who in their right mind would take a drug with an actual benefit of just 0.2% , probably you.









Statins: Flawed Studies, False Advertising and Lack of Transparency


The ‘Deadly Dangers of Saturated Fat’ & the ‘Superlative Safety of Statins’ Part 3



www.i-sis.org.uk





The Problem Is Relative

Graphs & Images - Dissolving Illusions | Disease, Vaccines, and the Forgotten History ( links to the graphs ).


----------



## Spandex

RRR isn’t ‘used in isolation’ though. It is often *reported *in isolation in the press, but that’s not the same thing, is it.

As for your deliberately misleading example, thanks for explaining RRR vs ARR in a pointlessly simplistic way. I was completely baffled by it until you made up an example using a conveniently lethal drug in the hope no one would notice the sleight of hand.

Don’t worry BobBot. If you, an actual idiot, can understand the difference between RRR and ARR, I think we can trust the rest of the population above the age of 2 to get it. To be honest, the fact you managed to wrap your melon around it has inspired me to sit my dog down tonight to go through it. I’m optimistic.


----------



## edwrai

Spandex said:


> And yet you are more than willing to ignore dedicated, honest scientists and physicians when they disagree with you. Which, lets face it, is most of them. You might like to dress this up as you and science on one side, and us and 'mainstream media hacks' on the other but that is, frankly, bollocks. You are anti-science. You're a tin foil hat wearing loony with a comically over-inflated opinion of your own intelligence. I genuinely pity any of your family and friends who have to humour you when you start off on your rambling nonsense (and they are just humouring you - notice how they don't really contribute much to the 'conversation' other than nodding along and agreeing? See how they just politely act shocked and surprised by your 'revelations', whilst suspiciously never really asking for more details?)
> 
> As for the difference between RRR and ARR, what's your point? Yes, RRR sounds more impressive than ARR - that's to be expected, isn't it? But that doesn't mean RRR is a con, or a scam. It's a useful figure in calculating the efficacy of a vaccine, because what you often want to know is how well a vaccine works at preventing disease, in isolation from all the other factors that affect a persons likelihood of becoming infected in the first place, and of becoming ill from that infection. And 'big pharma' didn't use the RRR in isolation, they provided *both *figures (otherwise how do you know them?) - it's the press that only report the RRR because it makes for better headlines. Again, that's hardly unexpected - the Daily Fail has famously been telling us for decades about all the things that will give us cancer, based on cherry-picking results from isolated studies.
> 
> You know how anyone can tell you're a conspiracy nut? because your 'argument' is all over the place. There's no coherence - 'the virus isn't dangerous', 'the vaccine isn't effective', 'the vaccine is dangerous', 'the governments are covering up X, Y or Z', 'big pharma are manipulating it', etc. It's a scattergun approach because you don't actually know anything. You have no actual evidence for any of it, so you throw everything at the wall in the hope something sticks.
> 
> You were the same when you were talking about climate change. In one breath you'd be telling me the climate wasn't changing, and in another you'd be claiming the changes were natural cycles and not caused by humans. The contradiction was irrelevant to you because your aim was to just throw mud and sow seeds of doubt. And the thing is, you personally have nothing to gain from doing so - but you've been tricked into being a puppet for the people who do. You're fed talking points and arguments to use by all these dodgy websites you read and you parrot them (often copy/pasting without bothering to write anything yourself) like a good little boy.
> 
> BTW RobBotBobBot, just a little FYI for you - no one is reading your links. I mean, just look at those URLs...


Spandex, if I ever meet you I’d like to buy you a drink. Batshit Bob’s disturbing kink for miss information really is disturbing and saddening. And it’s important to show it for what it is. 


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----------



## bobclive22

"Spandex, if I ever meet you I’d like to buy you a drink. Batshit Bob’s disturbing kink for miss information really is disturbing and saddening. And it’s important to show it for what it is."

Here are the actual stats, ( no misinformation here ) check them yourself ( Statistics » COVID-19 Total Deaths Supplementary File Archive )

In the age group 0 - 59, 429 healthy individuals died with Covid-19 from *early Jan 2020 to Early Jan 2021* prior to the mRNA untested shot being made available.

The population of England is approx *56 million*, the age group 60+ is approx *13.6 million*, to calculate the actual risk of dying from covid-19 in the 0-59 group is *429 actual deaths divided by 42.4 million the under 60 population multiplied by 100*, this gives an *actual risk* of dying from covid-19 of *0.00101%* or next to *ZERO* and you two took the jab for that, I wish you well. 
Over the next 12 months Jan 2021 to Jan 2022 the death rate increased from 429 from Jan 2020 to Jan 2021 to 758 over the next 12 months up to Jan 2022 even though most were now Jabbed, odd that, you would expect the opposite if the jab was 95% effective.


----------



## Spandex

bobclive22 said:


> Here are the actual stats, ( no misinformation here ) check them yourself ( Statistics » COVID-19 Total Deaths Supplementary File Archive )


You constantly act like ‘misinformation’ can’t exist if the figures are provided. The figures require interpretation and that is where misinformation can appear. For example, someone trying to manipulate the evidence to prove a stupid point might only look at data taken while the entire country was under numerous lockdowns and everyone was working from home and avoiding social contact. They might ignore the fact that the point of the vaccine was to allow the lifting of those restrictions.


bobclive22 said:


> In the age group 0 - 59, 429 healthy individuals died with Covid-19 from *early Jan 2020 to Early Jan 2021* prior to the mRNA untested shot being made available.


The vaccine was tested. You even know it was tested. So, that begs the question, why do you deliberately refer to it as ‘untested’ when you know that’s a lie? And the only answer I can think of is that you’re just a grubby little liar who will literally say anything to try to win an argument. Which is one of the many reasons why I have zero respect for you.


bobclive22 said:


> The population of England is approx *56 million*, the age group 60+ is approx *13.6 million*, to calculate the actual risk of dying from covid-19 in the 0-59 group is *429 actual deaths divided by 42.4 million the under 60 population multiplied by 100*, this gives an *actual risk* of dying from covid-19 of *0.00101%* or next to *ZERO* and you two took the jab for that, I wish you well.


Why are you only considering the risk of death? Personally, I don’t want to catch covid at all, but if I do catch it, I don’t want to die, I don’t want to go to hospital and ideally I don’t want any vaguely severe symptoms at all. I also don’t want to suffer from long covid.

The vaccine improves the odds of me avoiding all those things, but for some reason you ignore all that. see above - misinformation doesn’t just mean dodgy stats, it also means dodgy interpretation of reliable stats.


bobclive22 said:


> Over the next 12 months Jan 2021 to Jan 2022 the death rate increased from 429 from Jan 2020 to Jan 2021 to 758 over the next 12 months up to Jan 2022 even though most were now Jabbed, odd that, you would expect the opposite if the jab was 95% effective.


Surely only a simpleton wouldn‘t notice that during 2021 the covid restrictions were slowly lifted, furlough ended, travel opened up and through all of this, new, more infectious variants appeared. In that context, presumably you can agree that the vaccine did its job, no?


----------



## edwrai

bobclive22 said:


> "Spandex, if I ever meet you I’d like to buy you a drink. Batshit Bob’s disturbing kink for miss information really is disturbing and saddening. And it’s important to show it for what it is."
> 
> Here are the actual stats, ( no misinformation here ) check them yourself ( Statistics » COVID-19 Total Deaths Supplementary File Archive )
> 
> In the age group 0 - 59, 429 healthy individuals died with Covid-19 from *early Jan 2020 to Early Jan 2021* prior to the mRNA untested shot being made available.
> 
> The population of England is approx *56 million*, the age group 60+ is approx *13.6 million*, to calculate the actual risk of dying from covid-19 in the 0-59 group is *429 actual deaths divided by 42.4 million the under 60 population multiplied by 100*, this gives an *actual risk* of dying from covid-19 of *0.00101%* or next to *ZERO* and you two took the jab for that, I wish you well.
> Over the next 12 months Jan 2021 to Jan 2022 the death rate increased from 429 from Jan 2020 to Jan 2021 to 758 over the next 12 months up to Jan 2022 even though most were now Jabbed, odd that, you would expect the opposite if the jab was 95% effective.
> View attachment 490464


We’ve been here before and have gone over this one, 

The population at risk of severe COVID-19 (defined as either aged ≥70 years, or younger with an underlying health condition) comprises 18.5 million individuals in the UK, including a considerable proportion of school-aged and working-aged individuals. 


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## bobclive22

*edwria said.*

"_The population at risk of severe COVID-19 (defined as either aged ≥70 years, or younger with an underlying health condition) comprises 18.5 million individuals in the UK, including a considerable proportion of school-aged and working-aged individuals". _

The posted data from the *ONS* refers to *England* NOT the *UK* and the group I refer to is the *0-59 age group* with *NO* *comorbidity* which is made up of *42.4* million, of those *42.4* million only *429 fit English* individuals died in hospital, that equates to *0.00101%* of that age group, is that so difficult for you to understand.
I am not discussing the *over 59 age group*, I am trying to show you with government data that anyone fit 60 years of age and under had almost *ZERO* risk of dying from Covid but had a *higher risk* of dying from a new type of vax developed in less than 9 months which has *NO* long term safety data.

Lets say out of that 42.4 million *12.4 million* have at least one comorbidity, that leaves 30 million fit healthy individuals, the Actual risk of dying from covid for those 429 individuals out of that 30 million is *still *only *0.00143% *or still *next to zero* and you got the jabbed for those odds.

*Spandex said,*

_"The vaccine was tested" _

Yes for 9 months but has *NO* long term safety data, the trial ends in *2023.*

"Why are you only considering the risk of death?"

Because death is the *only end point that matters*, that`s why it is referred to in the data I posted, that end point was *no*t considered in the mRNA trials.
Death numbers were designed to *intimidate* folks into having the dodgy jab they otherwise would not have had.
Do you have the flu jab each year?.

_"The vaccine improves the odds of me avoiding all those things", _

Does it?, if that was the case why is a fifth jab being offered and why are so many jabbed in hospital with covid?.

_"Surely only a simpleton wouldn‘t notice that during 2021 the covid restrictions were slowly lifted, furlough ended, travel opened up and through all of this, new, more infectious variants appeared". _

*NO*, the variants were more inffective but *less* deadly, because of this there is* no evidence *that the mRNA jabs had any effect as they were all designed around the *original strain* which was long gone before the rollout of the Jab in *Jan 2021.*

Lockdowns made no difference, Sweden didn`t lockdown and imposed no restrictions, the virus took its course same as the UK, both county's achieved herd immunity but Sweden didn`t *destroy* it`s economy doing it.


----------



## Spandex

bobclive22 said:


> ,I am trying to show you with government data that anyone fit 60 years of age and under had almost *ZERO* risk of dying from Covid but had a *higher risk* of dying from a new type of vax developed in less than 9 months which has *NO* long term safety data.


Surely if you were really trying to show that, you would also have to demonstrate that the vaccine wasn’t safe? You literally wrote, right up there, that you have a “*higher risk*” of dying from the vaccine, yet you know that you have no evidence to back that up. I’ve asked you to produce evidence for this claim numerous times and every time you just change the subject - which is what you’ll do this time too. See? You’re a liar BobBot. You have absolutely no morals.


bobclive22 said:


> _"The vaccine was tested" _
> 
> Yes


 Well that little quote is being stored away for later.

so, you admit the vaccine has been tested - perhaps now you can stop your childish little game of calling it the untested vaccine every time you refer to it. I don’t have high hopes though, as you can’t even remember which account you’re logging in with, so remembering what you’ve said from one day to the next may be beyond you.


bobclive22 said:


> "Why are you only considering the risk of death?"
> 
> Because death is the *only end point that matters*


What?? No it’s not. Not even close. The biggest issue we faced early on was that the NHS was going to be overwhelmed by the number of people in hospital. You may be close enough to death that it’s now the only thing that concerns you on a regular basis, but personally I was never worried about dying from covid. I’m vaccinated because I don’t want to get ill. 


bobclive22 said:


> Do you have the flu jab each year?.


I’m not getting involved in your little false equivalency.


bobclive22 said:


> _"The vaccine improves the odds of me avoiding all those things", _
> 
> Does it?, if that was the case why is a fifth jab being offered and why are so many jabbed in hospital with covid?.


Because the effects of the vaccine don’t last forever and because the efficacy of the earlier vaccines is lower for the new mutations. It’s not difficult to understand, even for someone with your level of education, which makes me think your deliberately pretending not to get it in order to prove some point.


bobclive22 said:


> _"Surely only a simpleton wouldn‘t notice that during 2021 the covid restrictions were slowly lifted, furlough ended, travel opened up and through all of this, new, more infectious variants appeared". _
> 
> *NO*, the variants were more inffective but *less* deadly, because of this there is* no evidence *that the mRNA jabs had any effect


There *is* evidence on the efficacy of the original vaccines against the new strains. 


bobclive22 said:


> as they were all designed around the *original strain* which was long gone before the rollout of the Jab in *Jan 2021.*


 It’s odd that you happily accept that your magic HCQ can work on any strain of covid, and a load of other vaguely similar viruses, yet you are completely baffled by the concept that the different strains of covid might be similar enough that the vaccine could be effective, to some degree, against them. 


bobclive22 said:


> Lockdowns made no difference, Sweden didn`t lockdown and imposed no restrictions, the virus took its course same as the UK, both county's achieved herd immunity but Sweden didn`t *destroy* it`s economy doing it.


Just checking, as its hard to keep up with the chaos that is your brain sometimes - have we now moved from pretending covid isnt dangerous, and pretending that the vaccine *is* dangerous, to complaining about the lockdowns?

Right. If you look at the actual data you’ll see that Sweden began the pandemic on a very different infection trajectory to the uk, so direct comparison is complex (certainly beyond your child-like mind). a better comparison would be with Denmark, as they began the pandemic in a nearly identical way to Sweden, but imposed restrictions sooner.

The fundamental issue with the UKs response was that it was too late, relative to the infection rate in the country. Had we reacted sooner (as Denmark did, relatively speaking), we potentially could have kept infections lower which would have allowed us to use less strict restrictions, or reduced them sooner, which would have protected the economy.

The data, and comparisons between countries, doesn’t back up the notion that the restrictions didn’t help, or were too strict - we simply waited too long to introduce them, giving us a mountain to climb instead of a hill.


----------



## bobclive22

Unfortunately in your case NO amount of evidence will convince you that there was more risk than benefit for your age group 0 - 59 in having the fast tracked jab than NOT having it.

"have we now moved from pretending covid isnt dangerous, and pretending that the vaccine *is* dangerous, to complaining about the lockdowns?"

Covid-19 is a single strand RNA enveloped virus same as H1N1 they only become dangerous when left untreated and allowed to replicate unhinded, covid became dangerous when the UK instructed doctors not to treat the infection at the very EARLIEST time after symptoms occurred.

"It’s odd that you happily accept that your magic HCQ can work on any strain of covid",

Spandex,
HCQ can do that as it does not target the spike protein, it alkanises the cell and stops the essential acidic step needed by the virus for it`s uncoating and replication stage.
It stops viral replication within the cell which stops other cells being infected, that`s the reason HCQ must be used early in the infection and the reason it works for all strains.

"What?? No it’s not. Not even close. The biggest issue we faced early on was that the NHS was going to be overwhelmed by the number of people in hospital".

The Nightingale Hospitals were *never used* and the hospitals were not overwhelmed any more than in a normal flu year.


----------



## Spandex

bobclive22 said:


> Unfortunately in your case NO amount of evidence will convince you that there was more risk than benefit for your age group 0 - 59 in having the fast tracked jab than NOT having it.


In order to show there’s more risk than benefit, you have to show there is some risk. You havent done so. In fact, every time you’re asked to, you try to dodge the question - like you just did.


bobclive22 said:


> "have we now moved from pretending covid isnt dangerous, and pretending that the vaccine *is* dangerous, to complaining about the lockdowns?"
> 
> Covid-19 is a single strand RNA enveloped virus same as H1N1 they only become dangerous when left untreated and allowed to replicate unhinded, covid became dangerous when the UK instructed doctors not to treat the infection at the very EARLIEST time after symptoms occurred.


Unfortunately, there was no effective treatment early on. There were ineffective treatments, such as your beloved HCQ, but nothing effective.


bobclive22 said:


> "It’s odd that you happily accept that your magic HCQ can work on any strain of covid",
> 
> Spandex,
> HCQ can do that as it does not target the spike protein, it alkanises the cell and stops the essential acidic step needed by the virus for it`s uncoating and replication stage.
> It stops viral replication within the cell which stops other cells being infected, that`s the reason HCQ must be used early in the infection and the reason it works for all strains.


But HCQ has been shown not to be effective against covid.

As for the vaccine, it’s targeting isn’t so narrow that it becomes ineffective when covid mutates. It can become less effective though, as we’ve seen.


bobclive22 said:


> "What?? No it’s not. Not even close. The biggest issue we faced early on was that the NHS was going to be overwhelmed by the number of people in hospital".
> 
> The Nightingale Hospitals were *never used* and the hospitals were not overwhelmed any more than in a normal flu year.


Are you on crack? Covid admissions were many times higher than typical flu admissions. Do you just make stuff up and hope no one bothers checking?

But covid didn’t completely overwhelm the NHS because lockdowns were enforced. Did you sleep through 2021 or something? I know you’re getting a bit senile now, but surely you remember some of it?


----------



## bobclive22

Just listen to the medical experts not the propaganda spewed out by the MSM, the second interview should scare you, over and out





__





Interview of covexit.com’s Editor by Dr Craig Wax







covexit.com





EARLY TREATMENT SAVES LIVES.





__





Early Treatment of COVID-19


Libbabyhear Page: Craig M. Wax, DO, LLC of Mullica Hill, NJ provides information on health, nutrition, family medicine, preventive medicine, wellness, natural treatments, alternative medicine, integrative medicine, osteopathic manipulative medicine and just plain common sense. Libbabyhear page.



healthisnumberone.com


----------



## Spandex

bobclive22 said:


> over and out


This is the first thing you’ve said that I actually hope is true…


----------



## edwrai

bobclive22 said:


> Just listen to the medical experts not the propaganda spewed out by the MSM, the second interview should scare you, over and out
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Interview of covexit.com’s Editor by Dr Craig Wax
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> covexit.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> EARLY TREATMENT SAVES LIVES.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Early Treatment of COVID-19
> 
> 
> Libbabyhear Page: Craig M. Wax, DO, LLC of Mullica Hill, NJ provides information on health, nutrition, family medicine, preventive medicine, wellness, natural treatments, alternative medicine, integrative medicine, osteopathic manipulative medicine and just plain common sense. Libbabyhear page.
> 
> 
> 
> healthisnumberone.com


Listen to the medical experts “healthisnumberone.com” lol


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## bobclive22

*Listen to your experts*,

BBC, ITV , Daily Mail etc, Government talking heads, modeler Neil Furgusan of Imperial colledg, any actual practicing doctors on your list Edwrai?.

Here are *some *on my list, there are many more.

Video Interviews (list 1 - 5).

....................................................................................................................................................
Medical Researcher Stuart Wilkie Exposes State Murder In The UK Midazolam









Dr. Ardis, DC interviews Stuart Wilkie - Remdesivir is killing Innocent Americans...Stuart Wilkie exposes the deadly drug used to kill Seniors in the UK! - VokalNow.com


Remdesivir is killing Innocent Americans...Stuart Wilkie exposes the deadly drug used to kill Seniors in the UK! - VokalNow.com offers the best in live podcasting from Dallas, Texas.




vokalnow.com





UK Midazolam Murders, Dr. Mike Yeadon With Dr. Reiner Fuellmich (UK Midazolam Murders, Dr. Mike Yeadon)


----------



## edwrai

bobclive22 said:


> *Listen to your experts*,
> 
> BBC, ITV , Daily Mail etc, Government talking heads, modeler Neil Furgusan of Imperial colledg, any actual practicing doctors on your list Edwrai?.
> 
> Here are *some *on my list, there are many more.
> 
> Video Interviews (list 1 - 5).
> 
> ....................................................................................................................................................
> Medical Researcher Stuart Wilkie Exposes State Murder In The UK Midazolam
> 
> UK Midazolam Murders, Dr. Mike Yeadon With Dr. Reiner Fuellmich (UK Midazolam Murders, Dr. Mike Yeadon)
> 
> Elderly euthanised with Midazolam The only thing these experts talk about is death nothing about saving lives.


Everyone one of your links are from bitchute the service is known for accommodating far-right individuals and conspiracy theorists, and for hosting hate speech.

I come from a family of doctors, you are a bullshit peddler with far too much time on his hands who gets his kicks trying to push 2 bit conspiracies.

My brother worked in the covid wards in Swansea during the second wave, let me tell you if there was some magical treatment it would have been done. There wasn’t ,lots were tried, there are now some effective treatments. Lots of early preventive drugs were tried, don’t forgot huge numbers already in hospital got covid, and it was often detected early in high risk individuals. It was a truly awful way to go, and the staff were at breaking point, the change since the vaccine has been night and day.

If you want to see the list of drugs by their effectiveness see the BMJ guide.





__





Loading…






www.bmj.com






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## Spandex

I should have known ”over and out” would just be yet another of your lies. 


bobclive22 said:


> any actual practicing doctors on your list Edwrai?.


The actual stupidity of you… the fact you genuinely believe people would struggle to find practising doctors who disagree with you is hilarious. You’re a moron.


----------



## bobclive22

Early treatment Spandex, HCQ or Ivermectin, same result, you don`t die from covid flu if treated early.

Published Aug 31st 2022.
*Regular Use of Ivermectin as Prophylaxis for COVID-19 Led Up to a 92% Reduction in COVID-19 Mortality Rate in a Dose-Response Manner: Results of a Prospective Observational Study of a Strictly Controlled Population of 88,012 Subjects *









Regular Use of Ivermectin as Prophylaxis for COVID-19 Led Up to a 92% Reduction in COVID-19 Mortality Rate in a Dose-Response Manner: Results of a Prospective Observational Study of a Strictly Controlled Population of 88,012 Subjects


Background We have previously demonstrated that ivermectin used as prophylaxis for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), irrespective of the regularity, in a strictly controlled citywide program in Southern Brazil (Itajaí, Brazil), was associated with reductions in COVID-19 infection...




www.cureus.com


----------



## bobclive22

Edwrai,

_"Everyone one of your links are from bitchute the service is known for accommodating far-right individuals and conspiracy theorists, and for hosting hate speech_".

They do mainly provide links to the articles and study`s being discussed, unlike your BBC/ ITV etc. Always safest to obtain information from both sides otherwise how do you know which is true or false.

"Bitchute has free speech and is not censored, there are many other similar sites. Here is one for you Sci-Hub *free* scientific study`s, UK has banned it same as they did with EARLY TREATMENT for Covid flu.
If you are smart and you are* not*, it is possible to gain access to Sci-hub via, figure that out for yourself.

_"I come from a family of doctors", 
*And they have all been jabbed I expect, Ask your family doctors if they agree with Dr Brian Tyson below*_.









6000 covid-19 patients and ZERO deaths: Australian MP Craig Kelly interviews US Dr Brian Tyson MD


6,000 Covid-19 patients, and not one death! This is one of the most important videos I've seen. Please copy and share it far and wide. Original is on MP Craig Kelly's Telegram. https://t.me/s/craigkelly If you're an Aussie, we have 59,000+ Aussies i…




www.bitchute.com





*Dr. George Fareed Early treatment.*









International Covid Summit Dr. George Fareed Speech


Dr. George Fareed explains this is the most important speech of his life and shares his experience and knowledge of treating Covid patients with early treatment protocols he and Dr. Brian Tyson developed.




www.bitchute.com





Here is the regime which my wife and I used in early Jan 2021, HCQ 200mg x 2 daily + 100 mg zinc sulfate once daily + 100mg Doxycycline x 2 daily ( with food ), 7 day treatment, 2/3 days in bed gone in 7 days. We were also taking 50 mg zinc daily and VitD3 8000iu`s daily, reduced VitD to 4000iu`s in summer. Since that one event we have had NO colds/coughs or sore throats since that date.
Check this out with the doctors in your family.[/URL]


----------



## edwrai

bobclive22 said:


> Edwrai,
> 
> _"Everyone one of your links are from bitchute the service is known for accommodating far-right individuals and conspiracy theorists, and for hosting hate speech_".
> 
> They do mainly provide links to the articles and study`s being discussed, unlike your BBC/ ITV etc. Always safest to obtain information from both sides otherwise how do you know which is true or false.
> 
> "Bitchute has free speech and is not censored, there are many other similar sites. Here is one for you Sci-Hub *free* scientific study`s, UK has banned it same as they did with EARLY TREATMENT for Covid flu.
> If you are smart and you are* not*, it is possible to gain access to Sci-hub via, figure that out for yourself.
> 
> _"I come from a family of doctors",
> *And they have all been jabbed I expect, Ask your family doctors if they agree with Dr Brian Tyson below*_.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 6000 covid-19 patients and ZERO deaths: Australian MP Craig Kelly interviews US Dr Brian Tyson MD
> 
> 
> 6,000 Covid-19 patients, and not one death! This is one of the most important videos I've seen. Please copy and share it far and wide. Original is on MP Craig Kelly's Telegram. https://t.me/s/craigkelly If you're an Aussie, we have 59,000+ Aussies i…
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.bitchute.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> *Dr. George Fareed Early treatment.*
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> International Covid Summit Dr. George Fareed Speech
> 
> 
> Dr. George Fareed explains this is the most important speech of his life and shares his experience and knowledge of treating Covid patients with early treatment protocols he and Dr. Brian Tyson developed.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.bitchute.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Here is the regime which my wife and I used in early Jan 2021, HCQ 200mg x 2 daily + 100 mg zinc sulfate once daily + 100mg Doxycycline x 2 daily ( with food ), 7 day treatment, 2/3 days in bed gone in 7 days. We were also taking 50 mg zinc daily and VitD3 8000iu`s daily, reduced VitD to 4000iu`s in summer. Since that one event we have had NO colds/coughs or sore throats since that date.
> Check this out with the doctors in your family.[/URL]


I’ve had covid, it was like a mild cold, however loosing my taste was annoying, what comes from spending a lot of time in the city I guess.

Let’s see bitchute for what it is a place for content that is banned from places like YouTube for being misleading/extremist, it’s what liveleak used to be for terrorist content. It’s very important to understand your sources.

Scihub is cool yes, the pirate bay for published studies. The idea that you think getting on it would require any type of intelligence is very amusing, I mean I’m sure my 5 year old could figure it out.

As for your daily regime, it’s crazy you are still so afraid of covid you have to go through this, so glad I’m vaccinated so I don’t have to. Can’t go wrong with Vit D especially is you are a shut in who doesn’t get out much.

Now the link to the study, why would you link to one of the 355 studies of this drug? Why not just look at the meta analysis of all the studies. Which you could do here.









Ivermectin under scrutiny: a systematic review and meta-analysis of efficacy and possible sources of controversies in COVID-19 patients - Virology Journal


Background We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to evaluate the efficacy of ivermectin for COVID-19 patients based on current peer-reviewed RCTs and to address disputes over the existing evidence. Methods MEDLINE (Pubmed), Scopus, Web of Science, Cochrane library, Google scholar...




virologyj.biomedcentral.com





or here









Ivermectin for Prevention and Treatment of COVID-19 Infection: A Systematic Review, Meta-analysis, and Trial Sequential Analysis to Inform Clinical Guidelines - PubMed


Moderate-certainty evidence finds that large reductions in COVID-19 deaths are possible using ivermectin. Using ivermectin early in the clinical course may reduce numbers progressing to severe disease. The apparent safety and low cost suggest that ivermectin is likely to have a significant...




pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov




My advise, get a hobby get out a bit more and stop letting covid rule your life, advisable to get the vaccine first but you know Darwin and all that, your choice.


----------



## Spandex

bobclive22 said:


> Always safest to obtain information from both sides otherwise how do you know which is true or false.


This pretty much sums up the problem with the ‘do your own research’ idiots. The notion that getting information from ‘both sides’ makes it possible to then identify which is true, is just dumb. When faced with a subject that requires expertise and experience to understand, you find experts you can trust, you don’t just ask everyone then have a punt at working it out yourself. Unless you’re a genius like RobBotBobBot, of course.


edwrai said:


> Scihub is cool yes, the pirate bay for published studies. The idea that you think getting on it would require any type of intelligence is very amusing, I mean I’m sure my 5 year old could figure it out.


RobBotBobBot is famous for thinking he’s more intelligent than everyone else, whilst doing things that any old half-wit could accomplish. I‘m reminded of the time, when discussing something to do with electronics (and being spectacularly wrong, as you’d expect), he produced evidence of his electronic engineering talents - a photo of a circuit board he’d made. Maybe he was hoping no one would know what it was, and would just be impressed by the apparent ‘complexity’. Unfortunately it was obviously just a veroboard ‘altoids tin’ audio amplifier which he’d made by following someone else’s instructions. A soldering project frequently done by children.


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## edwrai

Spandex said:


> This pretty much sums up the problem with the ‘do your own research’ idiots. The notion that getting information from ‘both sides’ makes it possible to then identify which is true, is just dumb. When faced with a subject that requires expertise and experience to understand, you find experts you can trust, you don’t just ask everyone then have a punt at working it out yourself. Unless you’re a genius like RobBotBobBot, of course.
> 
> RobBotBobBot is famous for thinking he’s more intelligent than everyone else, whilst doing things that any old half-wit could accomplish. I‘m reminded of the time, when discussing something to do with electronics (and being spectacularly wrong, as you’d expect), he produced evidence of his electronic engineering talents - a photo of a circuit board he’d made. Maybe he was hoping no one would know what it was, and would just be impressed by the apparent ‘complexity’. Unfortunately it was obviously just a veroboard ‘altoids tin’ audio amplifier which he’d made by following someone else’s instructions. A soldering project frequently done by children.


Seriously read the comments on those bitchute video (or don’t) serious mental health issues going on. 


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## bobclive22

_"This pretty much sums up the problem with the ‘do your own research’ idiots". _

Like these conspirator theorists below, there is no chance that Spandex and his mate edwrai might just be the idiots, time will tell.

Edward Dowd linked in.

‘Friday Roundtable’ Episode 14: Exposing Fraud With Edward Dowd + Andy Wakefield - Friday Roundtable - CHD TV: Livestreaming Video & Audio





__





‘Friday Roundtable’ Episode 14: Exposing Fraud With Edward Dowd + Andy Wakefield - Friday Roundtable - CHD TV: Livestreaming Video & Audio


Live events, weekly shows, educational videos and podcasts.




live.childrenshealthdefense.org













Friday Roundtable - CHD TV: Livestreaming Video & Audio


Live events, weekly shows, educational videos and podcasts.




live.childrenshealthdefense.org





_"RobBotBobBot is famous for thinking he’s more intelligent than everyone else", _

*NO*, unlike Spandex I post *links* to all my comments and research.

_"Scihub is cool yes, the pirate bay for published studies". _

Here is how it works, Big pharma funds the clinical study`s that are printed in the journals, they then purchase thousands from the journals ensuring those journals make a profit, University`s pay yearly fees to the journals for access to those study`s, those fees are funded by the tax payer.
If the tax payer wants access to those study`s they have to pay again for that access, the fees can run into hundreds of pounds, this cost stops the general public from accessing study`s that may be crucial to their well being. Sch-Hub provides free access to those study`s, in fact Sch-Hub is often accessed by the *university`s and students.*
The aim of charging high fees is the keep the general public in ignorance, similar the the invention of the printing press and the translation of the Bible from Latin into English.

"Police are warning students and universities not to use a popular pirate website offering free access to millions of scientific research papers as Students should be aware that accessing such websites is illegal, as it hosts *stolen intellectual property.* ". Which the general public have already paid for.









Police warn students and universities not to use pirate Sci-Hub website


Site offers access millions of scientific research papers which detectives say were illegally obtained through phishing attacks




web.archive.org


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## edwrai

bobclive22 said:


> _"This pretty much sums up the problem with the ‘do your own research’ idiots". _
> 
> Like these conspirator theorists, theirs no chance that Spandex might just be the idiot is there?..
> 
> Edward Dowd linked in.
> 
> ‘Friday Roundtable’ Episode 14: Exposing Fraud With Edward Dowd + Andy Wakefield - Friday Roundtable - CHD TV: Livestreaming Video & Audio
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ‘Friday Roundtable’ Episode 14: Exposing Fraud With Edward Dowd + Andy Wakefield - Friday Roundtable - CHD TV: Livestreaming Video & Audio
> 
> 
> Live events, weekly shows, educational videos and podcasts.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> live.childrenshealthdefense.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Home - CHD TV: Livestreaming Video & Audio
> 
> 
> Live events, weekly shows, educational videos and podcasts.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> live.childrenshealthdefense.org


Na you’re proper nuts mate

Also dude quit with the really bad sources. 

“Children's Health Defense is an American 501(c)(3) nonprofit activist group mainly known for anti-vaccine propaganda and has been identified as one of the main sources of misinformation on vaccines”


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## Spandex

bobclive22 said:


> *NO*, unlike Spandex I post *links* to all my comments and research.


Yes, and most of your links are to dodgy sources, or you completely misunderstand or misinterpret decent sources.

RobBotBobBot, the majority of experts disagree with you. That’s all the information anyone needs. Standing in a crowd of ten thousand people who think you’re dumb, whilst repeatedly banging on about the two people who think you’re not, isn‘t particularly convincing.


----------



## bobclive22

Spandex, "Yes, and most of your links are to dodgy sources, or you completely misunderstand or misinterpret decent sources". 

Now why would all these virologists be wasing their time researching Chloroquine and zinc..

Inhibitors of endosomal acidification suppress SARS-CoV-2 replication and relieve viral pneumonia in hACE2 transgenic mice | Virology Journal | Full Text (biomedcentral.com)

In vitro inhibition of human influenza A virus replication by chloroquine | Virology Journal | Full Text (biomedcentral.com) 

In vitro inhibition of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus by chloroquine - PMC (nih.gov)

Zinc and respiratory tract infections: Perspectives for COVID‑19 (Review) (spandidos-publications.com)


----------



## bobclive22

edwrai said:


> Na you’re proper nuts mate
> 
> Also dude quit with the really bad sources.
> 
> “Children's Health Defense is an American 501(c)(3) nonprofit activist group mainly known for anti-vaccine propaganda and has been identified as one of the main sources of misinformation on vaccines”
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


 It appears all comments contrary to your beliefs are either right wing ( what-ever-that means) or conspiracy theorists.
The thing is, you have had numerous covid jabs that may in the future have a detrimental effect on your health, I being unjabbed will have no worry`s in that regard. 









New study links COVID vaccines to 25% increase in cardiac arrest for both males & females


Study based on data from emergency services. COVID infection itself not linked to significant increase in cardiovascular complications.




www.israelnationalnews.com












Increased emergency cardiovascular events among under-40 population in Israel during vaccine rollout and third COVID-19 wave - Scientific Reports


Cardiovascular adverse conditions are caused by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infections and reported as side-effects of the COVID-19 vaccines. Enriching current vaccine safety surveillance systems with additional data sources may improve the understanding of COVID-19 vaccine safety. Using...




www.nature.com












Israeli study: Natural immunity gives better protection than COVID shot


Study based on Maccabi Health data finds that natural immunity based on prior infection offers considerably better protection than 2 doses.




www.israelnationalnews.com












Comparing SARS-CoV-2 natural immunity to vaccine-induced immunity: reinfections versus breakthrough infections


Background Reports of waning vaccine-induced immunity against COVID-19 have begun to surface. With that, the comparable long-term protection conferred by previous infection with SARS-CoV-2 remains unclear. Methods We conducted a retrospective observational study comparing three groups...




www.medrxiv.org


----------



## edwrai

bobclive22 said:


> It appears all comments contrary to your beliefs are either right wing ( what-ever-that means) or conspiracy theorists.
> The thing is, you have had numerous covid jabs that may in the future have a detrimental effect on your health, I being unjabbed will have no worry`s in that regard.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> New study links COVID vaccines to 25% increase in cardiac arrest for both males & females
> 
> 
> Study based on data from emergency services. COVID infection itself not linked to significant increase in cardiovascular complications.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.israelnationalnews.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Increased emergency cardiovascular events among under-40 population in Israel during vaccine rollout and third COVID-19 wave - Scientific Reports
> 
> 
> Cardiovascular adverse conditions are caused by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infections and reported as side-effects of the COVID-19 vaccines. Enriching current vaccine safety surveillance systems with additional data sources may improve the understanding of COVID-19 vaccine safety. Using...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.nature.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Israeli study: Natural immunity gives better protection than COVID shot
> 
> 
> Study based on Maccabi Health data finds that natural immunity based on prior infection offers considerably better protection than 2 doses.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.israelnationalnews.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Comparing SARS-CoV-2 natural immunity to vaccine-induced immunity: reinfections versus breakthrough infections
> 
> 
> Background Reports of waning vaccine-induced immunity against COVID-19 have begun to surface. With that, the comparable long-term protection conferred by previous infection with SARS-CoV-2 remains unclear. Methods We conducted a retrospective observational study comparing three groups...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.medrxiv.org


That’s just a quote from Wikipedia about that the website you used as a source, I’ve re-read it and I can’t see how on earth you have misunderstood this?

Also that study you have linked to has a Reuters fact checking article, maybe worth a read.









Fact Check-Study using Israeli emergency services data does not prove COVID-19 vaccines cause heart problems


Social media users who are sharing a recently published study that they are falsely claiming proves COVID-19 vaccines cause heart problems.




www.reuters.com






Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## Spandex

bobclive22 said:


> Now why would all these virologists be wasing their time researching Chloroquine and zinc..


Presumably the whole point of carrying out studies is that you don’t know if they’re a waste of time until AFTER you’ve done them?


----------



## bobclive22

Perhaps you just might accept that HCQ might be useful when there is NOTHING else. Read the linked article and especially the comments, click on the authors of those comments, all 3 pages, open your minds just for once.

Chloroquine effective in COVID-19: True or false? March 2020.



https://www.researchgate.net/post/Chloroquine_effective_in_COVID-19_True_or_false



*Comment, No 2.*
8th Nov, 2021
Abdelkader BOUAZIZ
SOUGUEUR Division - Chemistry (POLYMERS), Université Ibn Khaldoun Tiaret

Dear all, I think this subject is ill-investigated or still under contreversy between politicians and scientists. If one look at more recent publications, a good and optimist impression will be noticed. Please at the following documents. My Regards

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7128816/?fbclid=IwAR0aSHA3TEAwrqkx12_NRr_mUTPFfYTFK6blKsE6ylKmfxSmpuN4KCUDjpI

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41565-020-0674-9?fbclid=IwAR37RJXV0m0159IedhP1Xj8Ax2wo5qh-ZlYIZ6OMI4vcPhkMAo_XF-rXivw

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7492153/

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7118659/

https://doi.org/10.3389/fimmu.2020.01409

https://doi.org/10.3389/fphar.2021.576093

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41421-020-0156-0

https://virologyj.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1743-422X-2-69

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2020.e04900

1st Apr, 2020
Kenneth Bentum Otabil

University of Energy and Natural Resources

I agree with Tomas Koltai that it is not a question of true or false. It is a matter of not having enough evidence to show whether it works or not. That notwithstanding, in this particular situation where we have no proven effective treatment, it might be worth administering chloroquine in COVID-19 especially for patients in very critical conditions, as the alternative to not giving the drug could be worse.
Doxycycline is known to be very potent even in atypical infections and hence could be useful in combination with chloroquine. However, it is also important to check for the effects of this combination to know if the combination is synergistic.

10th Apr, 2020
Antonella Marcoccia
ASL Roma 2 - Sandro Pertini Hospital Roma

Chloroquine and Hydroxychloroquine share the same mechanism of action but hydroxychloroquine has more tolerable safety profile that makes it the preferred drug to treat malaria and autoimmune conditions.
The recent data, presented as the first results obtained from clinical studies ongoing in several Chinese Hospitals, show that the chloroquine treatment, compared to control group treatments, can reduce the length of hospital stay and decrease the evolution of COVID-19 pneumonia. This has led China to include Chloroquine in the recommendations regarding the prevention and treatment of COVID -19 Pneumonia (1). A recent paper, supported the in vitro antiviral activity of Hydroxychloroquine and its more potent effect to inhibit SARS-COV-2, if compared to chloroquine.(2) The drug can contrast the fusion of the virus with the cell membrane. It can also inhibit nucleic acid replication , glycosylation of viral proteins , viral assembly , new virus particle transport , virus release . (2,3). Furthermore, the immunomodulatory effects of hydroxychloroquine may be useful in preventing the cytokine storm that occurs in critically ill SARS-CoV-2 infected patients (4)
At the moment in Italy, especially in the nothern regions, political and health authorities are making incredible efforts to contain the spread of COVID -19 . In this setting, the Hydrossichloroquine results an ideal drug to fight the epidemia, for its antiviral and immunomodulatory effects combined with its tolerable safety profile and very low cost .
Hydrossichloroquine would appear to have a crucial role in the early treatment of covid 19 patients.5-6 .

17th Apr, 2020
Sunny Chi Lik Au

Tung Wah Eastern Hospital
No evidence of clinical efficacy of hydroxychloroquine in patients hospitalised for COVID-19 infection and requiring oxygen: results of a study using routinely collected data to emulate a target trial. medRxiv. 2020 Apr.

ME, It has little efficacy in the later stages of infect

17th Apr, 2020
Francesco Saverio Dioguardi
Università degli studi di Cagliari

If chloroquine works, and I believe it does not and is also often deadly due to cardiotoxicity, why are we all looking for some different and effective therapies? On the contrary, EIDD-2801 seems a serious answer. Please look at:
T. P. Sheahan et al., Sci. Transl. Med.10.1126/scitranslmed.abb5883 (2020).
I trust on them.

26th Apr, 2020
Md Rabiul Alam
Evercare Hospital Dhaka

Indian gift of *0.1 million HCQ tab* is already received in Bangladesh today. It is also sending this (HCQ) to 55 COVID-19 hit countries. Ref: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/india-sending-hydroxychloroquine-to-55-coronavirus-hit-countries/articleshow/75186938.cms?from=mdr

5th May, 2020
Pieter Borger
W+W Research Association

In fact, SARS-CoV2 (COViD19) and SARSCoV are one of the same kind. Low doses of chloroquine should be beneficial. In both viruses.

Article A SARS-like Coronavirus was Expected, but nothing was done t...

12th May, 2020
Antonella Marcoccia
ASL Roma 2 - Sandro Pertini Hospital Roma

I prefer to wait the results of the many randomized controlled clinical trials that are ongoing .
I don’t understand what is the rational for using very hight dosage of hydroxichororquine in the TRIAL RECOVERY
*Hydroxychloroquine*by mouth for a total of 10 days as follows
Initial dose 800 mg
6 hours after initial dose 800 mg
12 hours after initial dose 400 mg
24 hours after initial dose 400 mg
Every 12 hours thereafter for 9 days 400 mg
The same hight dosage is applied in SOLIDARITY (the WHO megatrial)
Toxic-pharmacological data and the clinical activity of chloroquine, given its worldwide use, are unquestionably acquired; chloroquine is reported on all official texts and is therefore to be considered a well-established drug.
Acute chloroquine intoxication (after high overdoses of 2-5 g) can cause death within 1-3 hours as a result of cardiocirculatory and respiratory arrest. ((( The RECOVERY dosage of 1600 mg is very close to 2 grams))).
Despite I use this drug every day and I'm sure that has a good safety profile and a good rational for using aganist SARS COV 2 , I would be afraid to recruit patients for these two studies.



This comment is apt for Spandex and Edwrai,

11th May, 2020
Vivica Grotelueschen
Universität zu Lübeck

Dear Steingrimur Stefansson,

I just read a few of your recent comments and the more I read the more I wondered about your rude wording.
I totally agree with you that not everything that is presented as "science" here and even in papers is good science in terms of study/experimental design, controls or interpretation of results.
From my point of view it's probably an outcome of the "publish-or-perish" principle and competing groups working against each other on the same field (being the first to publish becomes more important than having the better results) both leading to quantity over quality which is further pushed by the economical interest of some editors.
We all started on a low level once; critical reading of information is definitely not easy especially if something fits into your own theory. Unproven theories served as information tend to become fact-like in your head if they are just repeated often enough – the basic principle of (willingly) creating fake news.

Therefore it is absolutely okay to scrutinize statements made in a discussion and to show how "good science" should be done. This is what the purpose of research gate is to me: Fact-based discussion on the Pros and Cons helping others to improve their knowledge and their scientific skills. Unproven ideas may also be mentioned as long as they are not taken as facts but as a baseline for discussion. Research is done to gather new information and often by setting up a theory and trying to prove it by trial and error experiments. This can be even crude ideas. If your theory is that "somewhere in the arctic lives a green elephant" you are free in spending your live trying to find it and discuss the hypothetical existence with others as long as you don’t take a gray elephant from africa, paint it green, ship it into the arctic and present a picture of it as a proof for your publication titled “The existence of green elephants in the artic region”.

Pointing out missing/wrong facts in a discussion is a good thing generally and providing *facts *about elephants might show the nonsense of such a project before starting it.

But at least in my eyes your *personally insulting *comments against others and their ideas here mainly discredit *you *and not them. What I read between the lines is: “I’m loud, therefore I’m right”. Not a very scientific justification which makes me doubt that your posts on the topics are much better…

23rd May, 2020
Juan Antonio Aguilera
Stanford University

FALSE.
The Lancet just published results in over 96 000 patients: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31180-6/fulltext
It actually led to a DECREASE IN SURVIVAL RATES.

23rd May, 2020
Antonella Marcoccia
ASL Roma 2 - Sandro Pertini Hospital Roma

I agree with you . HCQ is an ideal drug available for using in a large population , it has a rationale of efficacy, side effects already known because already employed for other indications in rheumatology, easy to do and low cost. Too much to put it all together ... The interesting role of hydroxychloroquine seems to be not the antiviral activity but the immunomodulation in a early stage of covid 19. On march 17th AIFA approved the off label use of hydroxychloroquine for covid 19 in italy and many general practitioners started to use this drug for treatment of not severe ill covid patients at home . The hospitalizations decreased and especially acute ill patients admitted in critical unit decreased. Now we are waiting for the results of currently randomized controlled large-scale trials.
WHAT'S THE PROBLEM?
I don’t understand what is the rational for using very hight dosage of hydroxichororquine in the TRIAL RECOVERY
*Hydroxychloroquine* by mouth for a total of 10 days as follows
Initial dose 800 mg
6 hours after initial dose 800 mg (1600 mg in 12 h ????)
12 hours after initial dose 400 mg
24 hours after initial dose 400 mg
Every 12 hours thereafter for 9 days 400 mg (800 mg for 9 days)
The same hight dosage is applied in SOLIDARITY the megatrial of WHO
Toxic-pharmacological data and the clinical activity of chloroquine, given its worldwide use, are unquestionably acquired; chloroquine is reported on all official texts and is therefore to be considered a well-established drug.
Acute chloroquine intoxication (after high overdoses of 2-5 g) can cause death within 1-3 hours as a result of cardiocirculatory and respiratory arrest. ( the RECOVERY dosage of 1600 mg is very close to 2 grams)
Despite I use this drug every day and I'm sure that has a good safety profile and a good ration for using aganist SARS COV 2 , I would be afraid to recruit patients for these two studies.
Moreover, this high dosage could not be used on a large population . So what is the goal of these trials ?


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## Spandex

bobclive22 said:


> Perhaps you just might accept that HCQ might be useful when there is NOTHING else. Read the linked article and especially the comments, open your minds just for once.


All I need in order to accept that HCQ might be useful is for the scientific community to determine that it is. I don’t need to be influenced by conspiracy theories or weird, biased anti-vac websites. I don’t need to imagine government coverups. I won’t need to scour the internet for things that agree with me in order to persuade people that I’m not an idiot.


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## bobclive22

"All I need in order to accept that HCQ might be useful is for the scientific community to determine that it is".

Perhaps Spandex you can explain what scientific community, would it be the Pharma funded scientific community or the Doctors in the field and the independent scientific community.









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## bobclive22

The Chinese used Chloroquine as an EARLY anti viral treatment for covid, the UK instructed doctors NOT to treat anyone with flu like symptoms EARLY, they also banned the off label use of Hydroxychloroquine which is a SAFER version.
The image below shows the difference in deaths this UK madness made.

Notice on Adjusting the Usage and Dosage of Chloroquine Phosphate for the Treatment of Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia 关于调整试用磷酸氯喹治疗新冠肺炎用法用量的通知 — (chinalawtranslate.com)


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## edwrai

bobclive22 said:


> The Chinese used Chloroquine as an EARLY anti viral treatment for covid, the UK instructed doctors NOT to treat anyone with flu like symptoms EARLY, they also banned the off label use of Hydroxychloroquine which is a SAFER version.
> The image below shows the difference in deaths this UK madness made.
> 
> Notice on Adjusting the Usage and Dosage of Chloroquine Phosphate for the Treatment of Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia 关于调整试用磷酸氯喹治疗新冠肺炎用法用量的通知 — (chinalawtranslate.com)
> 
> View attachment 491259


China had limited studies for these drugs as did a lot of countries, you are right Chloroquine was added to an approved list. The Chinese national health commission did this with the following statement.

“Some drugs may demonstrate a certain degree of efficacy for treatment in clinical observation studies but there are no effective antiviral drugs confirmed by double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trials,” 

“The use of hydroxychloroquine, or the combined use of it with azithromycin, is not recommended.”

The use of Choroquine was limited and I very much doubt is still even on the approve list. 


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## Spandex

bobclive22 said:


> "All I need in order to accept that HCQ might be useful is for the scientific community to determine that it is".
> 
> Perhaps Spandex you can explain what scientific community, would it be the Pharma funded scientific community or the Doctors in the field and the independent scientific community.


Its EVERY community. They all disagree with you. All you’re doing is finding the odd doctor or researcher here or there who thinks HCQ is effective whilst the majority of their peers disagree. Then you end up having to invent reasons why we can’t trust that majority, but can definitely trust a couple of people you found on the internet.

It’s exactly what you do with every discussion, from climate to WiFi to smart meters to Covid. Mabe you should have a bit of a think about why you’re always in this position.


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## edwrai

Spandex said:


> Its EVERY community. They all disagree with you. All you’re doing is finding the odd doctor or researcher here or there who thinks HCQ is effective whilst the majority of their peers disagree. Then you end up having to invent reasons why we can’t trust that majority, but can definitely trust a couple of people you found on the internet.
> 
> It’s exactly what you do with every discussion, from climate to WiFi to smart meters to Covid. Mabe you should have a bit of a think about why you’re always in this position.


What’s the WiFi thing?


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## Spandex

edwrai said:


> What’s the WiFi thing?


I think it was part of a wider discussion about how the radios in smart meters were boiling us alive... He then produced 'evidence' that WiFi was bad for your health (I vaguely remember him finding a study where they used RF at 2.4GHz, at power levels orders of magnitude beyond anything you can legally buy, to give mice cancer or something) and gave us a fascinating insight into his ridiculous life with an anecdote about how he or his wife were ill, then got better as soon as he turned the upstairs WiFi range extender off.

To paraphrase Forest Gump, BobBot is not a smart man.


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