# Is there validity to Vladimir's rhetoric regarding the international security dilemma? CHATGPT



## delmar.atlas (Dec 9, 2021)

I ask the AI particular questions regarding International Relations to better understand holistically, the historical actions that have led to a 10 month old war.

The annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014 is a highly disputed matter, and there are differing views on its legality.
Russia claims that the annexation was legal, citing a referendum held in Crimea in which a majority of the voters chose to secede from Ukraine and join Russia. However, the referendum has been widely criticized as being conducted under the control of Russian military forces and not meeting international standards for a free and fair vote.
Many countries, including the United States, have condemned the annexation of Crimea as a violation of international law, including the United Nations Charter, which prohibits the use of force to alter the territorial integrity of states. The United Nations General Assembly has also adopted several resolutions condemning the annexation and calling on Russia to respect Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity.
In summary, the legality of the annexation of Crimea is a matter of debate, with different perspectives on whether it was a legitimate exercise of self-determination or a violation of international law

The situation in Ukraine in 2014, when Russian forces intervened and annexed Crimea, was complex and highly controversial.
Viktor Yanukovych was the President of Ukraine at the time, and he fled from the capital, Kiev, amid widespread protests against his government. The protests, known as the Maidan movement, were sparked by Yanukovych's decision to suspend talks on an association agreement with the European Union and instead pursue closer ties with Russia. The protests eventually led to the ousting of Yanukovych from power.
Russia has claimed that it intervened in Ukraine to protect the rights of Russian-speaking minorities living in the country, particularly in Crimea. However, many countries and international organizations have disputed this justification, arguing that Russia's actions were a violation of Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity.
The situation in Ukraine and the annexation of Crimea by Russia have led to a significant escalation of tensions between Russia and the West, and the conflict has continued to be a major source of international controversy.

It is not clear what Russia's official position is on the hypothetical reversal of roles in the Cuban Missile Crisis, or whether the country views the expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to the east as analogous to the placement of Soviet missiles in Cuba during the Cuban Missile Crisis.
During the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, the Soviet Union placed nuclear missiles in Cuba, leading to a tense standoff with the United States and the threat of nuclear war. The crisis was eventually resolved through negotiations and the removal of the missiles.
Since the end of the Cold War, NATO has expanded to include several former Eastern Bloc countries, including some that were formerly part of the Soviet Union. Russia has expressed concern about this expansion, arguing that it threatens the country's security and undermines the balance of power in the region. However, NATO has argued that its expansion is necessary for the defense of its member states and is in line with its principles of collective defense.
It is not clear whether Russia views the expansion of NATO as equivalent to the placement of Soviet missiles in Cuba, or whether it views the hypothetical reversal of roles in the Cuban Missile Crisis as relevant to the current situation.

Russia's policy on international security is shaped by a number of factors, including the country's historical experiences, its strategic interests, and its geopolitical position.
Russia has traditionally viewed itself as a great power and has sought to play a significant role in global affairs. It has also sought to protect its own security and defend its interests, particularly in its immediate neighborhood.
Russia has often emphasized the importance of international law and the rules-based international order, and it has called for the resolution of conflicts through diplomacy and negotiations. At the same time, it has also used military force to pursue its objectives, particularly in conflicts involving its neighbors, such as in Georgia and Ukraine.
Russia has also sought to strengthen its own military capabilities and has invested in modernizing its armed forces. It has also sought to develop its own security partnerships and alliances, such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the Collective Security Treaty Organization.
Overall, Russia's policy on international security reflects a combination of its desire to protect its own interests and play a significant role in global affairs, as well as its commitment to upholding international law and resolving conflicts peacefully.

A security dilemma occurs when a country's efforts to increase its own security lead to a perceived or actual decrease in security for other countries, creating a vicious cycle of increased insecurity and militarization.
It is possible that Russia could be seen as facing a security dilemma in some contexts, particularly in its relations with some of its neighbors and with the United States and its allies. For example, Russia's actions in Georgia in 2008 and in Ukraine in 2014 were viewed by some as efforts to protect its own security, but they were also seen as threatening the security of those countries and leading to increased tensions and militarization in the region.
Similarly, Russia's efforts to modernize and strengthen its military capabilities and to develop its own security partnerships and alliances may be perceived by some as threats to the security of other countries. This could potentially lead to a security dilemma, as those countries may respond by increasing their own military capabilities or forming countervailing alliances, leading to a further escalation of tensions.
It is important to note, however, that the concept of a security dilemma is complex and can vary depending on the specific context and the actions and perceptions of the involved parties.

A security regime is a set of rules, norms, and practices that govern the behavior of states and other actors in a specific region or issue area, with the aim of promoting security and stability.
Russia has participated in and influenced various security regimes throughout its history, both as part of the Soviet Union and as an independent state. Some examples of security regimes in which Russia has played a significant role include:

The United Nations: Russia is a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, which is responsible for maintaining international peace and security. Russia has often used its veto power in the Security Council to protect its own interests and has played a key role in shaping the UN's approach to various conflicts and crises.
The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE): Russia is a founding member of the OSCE, which is a regional security organization comprising 57 countries in Europe, North America, and Central Asia. Russia has actively participated in the OSCE's efforts to promote dialogue and cooperation on security issues and has used the organization to advance its own security interests.
The Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO): The CSTO is a regional security organization comprising six member states in the post-Soviet space, including Russia. Russia has played a leading role in the CSTO and has used the organization to strengthen its security partnerships with other member states.
These are just a few examples of security regimes in which Russia has exercised significant influence. Russia has also participated in other regional and global security regimes, such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

It is difficult to predict the future actions of any country, and it is not possible to say with certainty how Russia will behave in the future. However, Russia has historically sought to protect its own interests and defend its sovereignty, and it has at times challenged the dominant role of the West in the global order.
Since the end of the Cold War, Russia has pursued a foreign policy that has often been at odds with the interests and policies of the United States and its allies. This has included Russia's actions in conflicts such as those in Georgia and Ukraine, which have led to increased tensions with the West.
Russia has also sought to strengthen its own military capabilities and to develop its own security partnerships and alliances, such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the Collective Security Treaty Organization, as a counterbalance to Western-led organizations such as NATO.
Overall, it is possible that Russia may continue to challenge the dominant role of the West in the global order in the future, particularly in areas where it perceives its interests to be at stake. However, it is also important to recognize that Russia's actions and policies are shaped by a complex set of factors, and it is not possible to predict the future course of its relations with the West with certainty.


It is not possible to predict with certainty whether any country would choose to use weapons of mass destruction (WMD) in the future. The use of WMD, which includes nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons, would have catastrophic consequences for both the target and the attacker, and it is generally viewed as a violation of international law.

Russia is a signatory to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), which is a global treaty that aims to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and promote disarmament. Russia is also a party to other international agreements that seek to prohibit the use of chemical and biological weapons, such as the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) and the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC).

However, like any other country, Russia has the capability to develop and possess WMD, and it has a significant arsenal of nuclear weapons. The use of WMD is generally considered a last resort, and it is hoped that the deterrent effect of such weapons will prevent their use.

It is important for all countries to adhere to their obligations under international law and to refrain from developing, producing, or using WMD. It is also important for countries to work together to promote disarmament and non-proliferation efforts in order to reduce the risk of WMD being used in the future.

It is not possible to categorize Russia's approach to security as strictly following one particular theory or ideology, as its actions and policies are shaped by a complex set of factors and are influenced by a range of considerations.

That being said, some analysts have characterized Russia's approach to security as primarily realist, meaning that it is driven by the country's own interests and the pursuit of power and security in the international system. Realist approaches to security tend to emphasize the role of the state as the primary actor in international relations and view international relations as a competitive struggle for power and resources.

However, Russia's approach to security is not necessarily limited to realism and may also be influenced by other factors, such as its domestic politics, its historical experiences, and its cultural and geopolitical context.

It is also worth noting that different branches of the Russian government and different groups within Russian society may have different perspectives on security issues, and these perspectives may not always be aligned or consistent.

Russia's security actions and policies are likely motivated by a combination of microeconomic and macroeconomic factors.

Microeconomic factors are those that relate to the behavior of individual firms and households, such as the allocation of resources, pricing, and competition. These factors can have an impact on Russia's security by influencing the country's economic performance and the availability of resources for defense and security-related activities.

Macroeconomic factors, on the other hand, are those that relate to the overall performance of an economy, such as inflation, employment, and economic growth. These factors can also affect Russia's security by influencing the country's economic strength and its ability to finance and sustain security-related activities.

It is important to note that the relationship between economics and security is complex, and the specific economic factors that influence Russia's security actions and policies may vary depending on the specific context and the nature of the security challenge being faced. Additionally, other factors, such as domestic politics, international relations, and historical experiences, can also play a role in shaping Russia's security actions and policies.




In conclusion, it is not easy to understand the EXACT motivator for Russian aggression, except that its aggression directed to its closest neighbors based on a variety of reasons and motivators. The CHATGPT has some insight into the topics due to its ability to look at Russian actions historically, however, academic exposure is required to comprehend why Russia faces a security dilemma even though it holds itself in an international security regime. This is where I find myself at odds with the AI. It's good, at giving you information as long as you ask the right questions, but the essence of the information can only be interpreted properly with an already existing grasp of IR.

Russia faces a daunting international landscape affecting its micro and macro economy brought on by a world wide financial crisis. In 2014 under the guise of protection, Russia established a naval port furthering its "defensive" combat reach. One can only imagine what other defensive positions Russia wanted to establish by its military advancement both economical and strategically geographical.


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## Beryl (3 mo ago)

Seems like a lecture disguised as a question 
When I come across something as detailed and lengthy as this I always recall the Budapest memorandum. That was also detailed and lengthy and, didn’t in the end amount to a can of beans. Call me a closed mind on this but I shan’t be commenting again.


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## delmar.atlas (Dec 9, 2021)

Beryl said:


> Seems like a lecture disguised as a question
> When I come across something as detailed and lengthy as this I always recall the Budapest memorandum. That was also detailed and lengthy and, didn’t in the end amount to a can of beans. Call me a closed mind on this but I shan’t be commenting again.


I'm sure the AI won't take offense. 

I asked it questions about history, financial implications and agendas formulated international security. My conclusions based on the information gathered was that, unless you have an academic background in IR, you would not truly appreciate the reality of the situation.


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## FNChaos (Nov 30, 2016)

Putin sees himself as the one who will reunite the ancient Russian empire (and presumably mark his place in history as the great uniter) but several former Soviet-satellite countries want no part in it. 

Ukraine in particular was treated extremely poorly during Stalin's reign. During '_collectivization_' Ukrainian farmers were expected to give up their lands to feed the Red army. When the Ukrainians refused, Stalin created a man-made famine (Holodomor or Terror-Famine) that killed millions of Ukrainians. (Estimates range from 3.5 to 10 million deaths) The famine was so severe it is reported than some resorted to cannibalism for survival. Ukrainians might have been forced to be part of the former USSR but there is no love lost between the two countries. 

After the fall of the Soviet Union, Russia & Ukraine reached an agreement where as Ukrainian would remove all Soviet-era nuclear weapons from it's lands (presumably for Russian safekeeping) in exchange for a promise of peaceful (but separate) coexistence. 

The invasion of Crimea broke this agreement. Putin claims that the people of Crimea are pro-Russian but that is questionable. No doubt that there are some, but many of those were intentionally moved to Crimea as part of an effort to 'assimilate' the native population into Russian ways.

Former Soviet-satellites know that they will never be treated as equals should they agree to become part of a bigger Russian empire. Instead they will be used once again as a shield to protect Russia proper, their lands exploited and their people used.

The loss of this 'buffer' is portrayed (and mostly believed) as “Western power” encroachment in Moscow but I think a better question for Russians to ask themselves is, “why do former Soviet states dislike Russia so much?” "Would fair and equal treatment work better than indiscriminate missile attacks?"


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## Beryl (3 mo ago)

“After the fall of the Soviet Union, Russia & Ukraine reached an agreement where as Ukrainian would remove all Soviet-era nuclear weapons from it's lands (presumably for Russian safekeeping) in exchange for a promise of peaceful (but separate) coexistence.”

ie the Bucharest Memorandum. This was also promised by the Uk and America as well as Russia. Frankly, you can’t trust any of us! What a surprise.


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## FNChaos (Nov 30, 2016)

Beryl said:


> ie the Bucharest Memorandum. This was also promised by the Uk and America as well as Russia. Frankly, you can’t trust any of us! What a surprise.


Budapest not Bucharest (you got it right the first time )

Follow-up comment:

If Putin's aim was to reduce the threat of western encroachment via NATO alliances, he failed miserably... After Russia's invasion into Ukraine, both Sweden and Finland applied for NATO membership as a hedge against further Russian aggression.

Sweden and Finland's inclusion into NATO has been accepted by 28 of the 30 current NATO members w/ Turkey & Hungary being the two hold-outs (Turkey is expected to reach an agreement within months and Hungary has stated it won't be the last to sign on so pretty much a done deal...)

Finland is particularly troublesome for Russia due to its proximity to the Kola Peninsula and its massive artillery stockpile.

Ukraine has also requested NATO membership, and while not guaranteed they will almost certainly join the west by becoming a member of the EU.

Add Bosnia, Herzegovina and Georgia to the list as they've also expressed a desire to join.

Russia's invasion has also had the effect of re-energizing existing NATO members who, after years of lethargy are now increasing military funding and updating their military hardware.

On top of all of that, Russia's “_special military operation_” has shown the world that its military is no longer _"World-Class"_. Ukrainian fighters are proving to be more formidable than previously thought (they sunk Rusia's Black Sea flagship Moskva!) and they might even have a chance of taking back Crimea... Russian tactics have been reduced to launching missiles from a distance since Russian artillery is rapidly destoyed via Himars and their jets are routinely knocked out of the sky... Russia is losing the war of attrition, forced to purchase dated ammunition from North Korea and drones from Iran (since they can no longer get enough parts to make their own).

Russian citizens haven't yet felt the real pain that sanctions are creating (since the Russian government is artificially propping up its economy) but that money will run out and they will find out the true cost of this war. They will also come to realize just how many of their sons have been killed in action when enough time passes and they fail to come home. Public support will surely falter once reality sets in.

Addtionally, one would expect insurgent forces from Georgia, Chechnya and Ukraine to take advantage of Russia's weakened / depleted war machine (meaning security closer to home cannot be guaranteed).

Putin wants the world to view and treat Russia as a superpower (like the former USSR) but currently it can only claim to have the second best military in Ukraine.


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## delmar.atlas (Dec 9, 2021)

Interesting read.


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