# Will the FTSE....



## jampott (Sep 6, 2003)

....rise back over 4000 next week?

Its back up within a gnats whisker once again.......

So what does everyone reckon? Any stock tips?


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## scoTTy (May 6, 2002)

Shouldn't this be in the joke section? ;D


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## jampott (Sep 6, 2003)

Was thinking maybe "Flame Room" 

Well come on.... all you budding Financial Wonders........


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## chip (Dec 24, 2002)

i don't think you'll get a repeat performance like before.  Shame, but the memories vividly lives on in my head....

be careful, this thread may mysteriously disappear as well! ;D ;D ;D

So, to start the ball rolling, yes it will.....................


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## gunner (May 18, 2002)

Dream on, I think the days of rampant stock market growth is over, at least for the short term.

Two years ago, I sold all my stock investments and bought my TT, turns out to be a good move, I would have lost more in the shares than the TT has depreciated   

My advise is take your money and enjoy it, you never know what tomorrow will bring     ;D ;D


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## kce821tt (May 17, 2002)

> Any stock tips?


'Pile 'em high - sell 'em cheap - oh sorry that's Audi!
em..... buy low, sell high!
They said the other day that historically after the kind of recent performance of the FTSE, the market can take 10-20 years to recover!
Don't believe that it will take that long myself, as we are now in a more volatile age, with much greater fluctuations. Think I'll start looking after my own pension fund, and steer clear of long endowments (unless you're a porn queen, of course)


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## vlastan (May 6, 2002)

> 'Pile 'em high - sell 'em cheap - oh sorry that's Audi!
> em..... buy low, sell high!
> They said the other day that historically after the kind of recent performance of the FTSE, the market can take 10-20 years to recover!
> Don't believe that it will take that long myself, as we are now in a more volatile age, with much greater fluctuations. Think I'll start looking after my own pension fund, and steer clear of long endowments (unless you're a porn queen, of course)


When they say 10-20 years to recover they mean to reach the high levels that it was 3 years ago.

I believe that this can taken another 8-10 years. But of course the market will climb up a little now.


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## BreTT (Oct 30, 2002)

Oh - I thought this was a complete the caption competition. My answer was...

"kindly fek off".

What do I win?


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## bec21tt (Feb 27, 2003)

> Oh - I thought this was a complete the caption competition. My answer was...
> 
> "kindly fek off".
> 
> What do I win?


 [smiley=thumbsup.gif]


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## David_A (May 7, 2002)

You know I was going to post the will the ftse ever drop below 4000 last week but thought it would stir up too much deep seated hatred and bad feeling :

Yeah over the next couple of weeks it'll steadily rise up and upmy bets it'll be above 4000 by May 19th

These forecasts may go up as well as down and sideways. I know fuck all about finances, but I do walk past BOE and the stock exchange each day.

Dave


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## chip (Dec 24, 2002)

> I know fuck all about finances, but I do walk past BOE and the stock exchange each day.
> 
> Dave


that's good enough for me. Now, which stock do you recommend I invest my spare Â£300k? 

My financial tip is to bet against me on all my bets with Sporting Index. Only 50/50 chance, but I still manage to lose shedloads :'( :'(


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## David_A (May 7, 2002)

Spread betting is by far the easiest way to lose lots of money - I suggest trying that without reading the rules and how it works. :

Dave


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## Dotti (Mar 9, 2003)

I wouldn't invest anything on the market these days. With houses not selling nor going up much and banks offering so little on large amounts your better off investing large amounts in bonds and the like or even better in your home if you have an offset mortgage.

Investing in your home is beneficial if you have an offset mortgage particularly. If house prices fall and you have an offset mortgage it gets paid off quicker and if house prices rise with immediate effect afterwards you would get a better return on your money which is invested in your home. The percentage of profits made from this is would be greater.


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## garyc (May 7, 2002)

Invest in Art. Especially nudes. 8)


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## Dotti (Mar 9, 2003)

Garyc, are you offering to pose for a couple of quid ;D


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## racer (Feb 3, 2003)

> Invest in Art. Especially nudes. 8)


I'm contemplating a weekly investment of Â£2.50 at my local newsagent, is this wise at the moment given the recent 'bare' market. ;D Sorry


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## Dotti (Mar 9, 2003)

Invest in moi ;D. I will know how to save and spend it :


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## BreTT (Oct 30, 2002)

> Invest in moi Â ;D. Â I will know how to save and spend it Â :


Will you be earing and spending it naked though?


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## garyc (May 7, 2002)

> Garyc, are you offering to pose for a couple of quid Â ;D


If I was, I would't call it Art.......


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## Dotti (Mar 9, 2003)

Art with a bit of difference then . Oh go on GaryC you know you want to and hey look I think Brett wants to join in deep down aswell . You know he is very good at photo shoots too, particularly where his TT is involved 8). Very picturesque :-*. 
Brett you could earn a second income doing this to invest keeping the TT ;D.


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## BreTT (Oct 30, 2002)

> Brett you could earn a second income doing this to invest keeping the TT Â ;D.


It would be a damn site more interesting than working for a living! ;D Think I might have trouble selling the concept to the burrd though... ???


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## NickP (May 6, 2002)

I would predict it will be around 4000 on the 13th May....give or take 10 points either side :


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## jampott (Sep 6, 2003)

I can't (yet) find the original thread, so this one will have to do... 

When's it dropping under 4k then?  :lol:


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## garyc (May 7, 2002)

It'll go where the bankers take it.


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## RHTT (Jun 19, 2008)

The Stock Market hates uncertainty....so with so much around who knows where it will bottom out ???

Regards
Robin


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## saint (Dec 6, 2002)

Why can't they just print more money? :roll:


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## TommyTippee (May 31, 2007)

Can't decide if this is a serious thread or a "pervs paradise" 

FT 100 stands at 4391 at the moment
By the weekend it will be above 4500 and continue to rise thereafter.

If you have money to invest, now is the time, pick your stocks, not banks yet though and watch the values rise over the next 12 months


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## Wallsendmag (Feb 12, 2004)

If only our sharesave had started a couple weeks later.


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## PissTT (Apr 7, 2006)

Don't reckon its buy time yet....

Wait till unemployment starts to rise etc


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## garyc (May 7, 2002)

PissTT said:


> Don't reckon its buy time yet....
> 
> Wait till unemployment starts to rise etc


It started. My Co just annouced 3000 UK redundancies.


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## PissTT (Apr 7, 2006)

Sorry to hear that ....

Alas the tip of the iceberg...

The government have fucked up major... throwing 13k per head of population at a problem of their creation will only make matters worse...


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## PissTT (Apr 7, 2006)

TommyTippee said:


> Can't decide if this is a serious thread or a "pervs paradise"
> 
> FT 100 stands at 4391 at the moment
> By the weekend it will be above 4500 and continue to rise thereafter.
> ...


Hope nobody followed your advise!!!! [smiley=bomb.gif]


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## RHTT (Jun 19, 2008)

Absolutely !!!!!!!!!


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## Wondermikie (Apr 14, 2006)

PissTT said:


> TommyTippee said:
> 
> 
> > Can't decide if this is a serious thread or a "pervs paradise"
> ...


Crystal ball is needing a polish I reckon...



> Global stocks have fallen sharply on one of the worst days of trading in 30 years, despite continuing government efforts to tackle the crisis. The FTSE closed down 381.7 points lower at 3,932, wiping £91.2bn off the value of the largest UK shares. The index has fallen 21% this week - the second-biggest weekly fall in FTSE 100 history.


http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7662572.stm


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## Kell (May 28, 2002)

Wondermikie said:


> PissTT said:
> 
> 
> > TommyTippee said:
> ...


It's very easy to be critical, but you're looking at it as far too short term. It's still a good time to buy if you're prepared to wait for your returns. You should never look at investing as anything other than long-term. >5 years. The problem at the moment, is that people are holding off investing for the fear that the short term falls will put into them. Myself included.


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## jampott (Sep 6, 2003)

Kell - part of what you say is true - now is certainly a good time to buy...

But, the guy gave absolute predictions as to where he thought the FTSE would be, at a specific time. The predictions turned out to be totally incorrect.

A more general "It won't get much lower, expect it to recover quite quickly in the short term..." would have been believable (and probably correct) but predicting it to be at 4500 "by the weekend"... just plain wrong!

A bit like putting money on Spurs to win their next game, and expecting a payout if they lose, purely on the basis that they'll still probably escape relegation when judged on the season as a whole... :lol: :roll:


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## Kell (May 28, 2002)

Fair point Tim. But my "you're looking at in too much in the short term" comment applied accross the board.

It's an incredibly risky strategy to try and make money from stocks and shares in the short term and, unless you really know what you're doing could see you getting severely burned. In fact, as the recent history shows, even if you do know what you're doing, it's far more likely that you'll lose than win.

You might as well stick all on red.


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## John-H (Jul 13, 2005)

They said on the radio this morning that the sharp rise was a "frisky dead cat bounce" - watch you don't get clawed :wink:

Someone at work bought some Barclays shares! I know what'll appen if after the initial surge it drops further.... he'll say "I wasn't trying to make a quick profit - I was in it for the long term investment" - or at least long enough for us to forget if it's that embarrassing a loss. Could do well - who knows it's all a gamble. You'd be better off at the casino doing the red or black double each time bet until you win gamble :wink: .


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## garyc (May 7, 2002)

Some bargains for bottom feeders me thinks.

RBS values at 10% of it's worth a year ago. HBOS similar. Now that the Govt is in effect doing what the BOE used to do and has become in effect Lender of Last Resort (but with excutive power), and with US set to follow suit, things should stabilise.

Oil prices are down, inflation will slow, banks more stable and properly regulated. All the right ingredients. Expect a lean Xmas though - but that suits me, I hate shopping.

My biggest concern is that Gordon Brown startss to look good coming out of all this (even though he put us there in the first place)


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## John-H (Jul 13, 2005)

I thought it was Thatcher that started deregulation.


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## Wallsendmag (Feb 12, 2004)

John-H said:


> I thought it was Thatcher that started deregulation.


She has a lot to be blamed for.


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## garyc (May 7, 2002)

wallsendmag said:


> John-H said:
> 
> 
> > I thought it was Thatcher that started deregulation.
> ...


And much to be thanked for. But it was Gordon Brown who let the Bank of England go their own way with interest rates and money supply, credit regulations and general monetary policy -wuth a 2.5% max inflation objective - back in 1997 just after the New Labour election win. And now it has all come home to roost.

As one pundit put it, it is like someone setting fire to your house, then putting out the fire and expecting you to be eternally grateful.

This is what Brown did in 1997:

_1997: Brown sets Bank of England free
The Chancellor, Gordon Brown, has given the Bank of England independence from political control. 
His surprise announcement - coming only four days after Labour's landslide election win - is being described as the most radical shake-up in the bank's 300-year history.

Mr Brown has also announced a loan rate rise of a quarter-point to 6.25%. The increase was decided after Mr Brown's first and last meeting with the Governor of the Bank of England, Eddie George.

The chancellor went straight from that meeting to a news conference at which he unveiled his plans to give the bank freedom to control monetary policy.

Broad welcome

He said: "I want to set in place a longterm framework for economic prosperity... I want to break from the boom bust economics of previous years."

Labour MPs have applauded the chancellor's announcement - but the Conservatives were divided, with former chancellor Norman Lamont congratulating Mr Brown while former home secretary Michael Howard deplored it.

Business chiefs have broadly welcomed Labour's decision to give the bank its independence.

Under the new regime, a monetary policy committee will be set up to decide interest rates with a view to achieving an initial inflation target of 2.5% or less.

The committee will be made up of the Governor, his deputy, a new second deputy, two bank executive directors and four experts, appointed from outside the bank

It will meet monthly and each member will be entitled to one vote.

In the past, the chancellor held a monthly meeting with the governor at which interest rates were agreed.

It means the bank will now be free to decide monetary policy without taking the short-term wishes of politicians into account.

It is understood Mr Brown and his economic adviser, Ed Balls, put the final touches to their plans to give the bank independence over interest rates in a London hotel only 36 hours before the party's election victory.

Within hours of celebrating the party's win, Mr Brown was at the Treasury. Officials had to work through the bank holiday weekend to get the paperwork ready for the most sweeping reform in the bank's history.

The regular monthly meeting between the Chancellor and the Mr George was brought forward by one day but details of the final announcement were kept secret until the news conference. _

"LONG TERM FRAMEWORK FOR ECONOMIC PROSPERITY AND AWAY FROM BOOM/BUST"

Ha Ha Gordon. :lol: :lol: :lol:


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## ag (Sep 12, 2002)

With regards to what you posted above, Gary, do you not think that this is fairly typical of New Labour. They have thus far seemed incapable of realising their objectives and, indeed, in many cases made an already poor situation worse. Examples range from World Peace, through NHS performance to Child Poverty. Whilst their _stated_ objectives have, in most cases, been laudable, their ability to deliver on those objectives has been poor. They have frequently developed policy on the back of ideology and not based on any available facts. When faced with immediate problems they have always fallen back on knee-jerk over-reactions that have themselves caused more problems than they have solved. A perfect example of this is manipulating anti-terror laws to restrict the circulation of cash from and to Icelandic banks. 1. To treat the whole Icelandic nation as terrorists is both insulting and ridiculous to Icelanders and there will be a negative economic impact on the UK economy. (Will the last person to leave Grimsby please turn the lights off!) 2. Seizing assets will not suddenly create a £1Bn surplus, so the action was pointless.

The current economic situation was created by insufficient regulation of the Banking industry worldwide. As Britain prides its-self on being the core of World Banking and that London is the Financial capital of the world it falls to those individuals responsible for the regulation of Banking in the UK to admit their mistakes.

We have all benefitted in the past 6 or 7 years from the prosperity that the UK economy has offered, none more so than the Chancellor of the Exchequer. The more prudent among us have saved a proportion of our additional wealth and not squandered it. I only hope that the Chancellor has been as sensible.

Now is not the time to look at the causes of the crisis. It is a time to react and restore confidence. However, we do need to look to our leaders at this time and decide whether they have the skills to tackle this. If you have read all that I have written then you will come to the conclusion that the present administration, including the Govenor of the BOE and the US officials, are poorly placed to achieve anything worthwhile and long-lasting.


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## garyc (May 7, 2002)

ag said:


> With regards to what you posted above, Gary, do you not think that this is fairly typical of New Labour. They have thus far seemed incapable of realising their objectives and, indeed, in many cases made an already poor situation worse. Examples range from World Peace, through NHS performance to Child Poverty. Whilst their _stated_ objectives have, in most cases, been laudable, their ability to deliver on those objectives has been poor. They have frequently developed policy on the back of ideology and not based on any available facts. When faced with immediate problems they have always fallen back on knee-jerk over-reactions that have themselves caused more problems than they have solved. A perfect example of this is manipulating anti-terror laws to restrict the circulation of cash from and to Icelandic banks. 1. To treat the whole Icelandic nation as terrorists is both insulting and ridiculous to Icelanders and there will be a negative economic impact on the UK economy. (Will the last person to leave Grimsby please turn the lights off!) 2. Seizing assets will not suddenly create a £1Bn surplus, so the action was pointless.
> 
> The current economic situation was created by insufficient regulation of the Banking industry worldwide. As Britain prides its-self on being the core of World Banking and that London is the Financial capital of the world it falls to those individuals responsible for the regulation of Banking in the UK to admit their mistakes.
> 
> ...


Yes to all above.

Although my Icelandic solution is, I believe, a good'un to release the frozen assets - just nullify or seize back Icelandic shares in Hamleys, Oasis, Karen Millen and House of Fraser plus Debenhams, al worth about £1B - same as is frozen by the inbred seal-clubbers. :wink:

http://www.********.co.uk/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=125058

:lol:


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## ag (Sep 12, 2002)

Unfortunately they may be worth approximately £1Bn today. Let's see what six months of recession does to their value.


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## Kell (May 28, 2002)

3751 today.

London's FTSE 100 index of leading shares plunged by 8.2 per cent, or 336.07 points, to 3,751.76 as investors digested the worse-than-expected figures. Sterling also fell further, to a new five-year low of $1.5616 against the dollar.


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## Steve_Mc (May 6, 2002)

The current markets are simply untradeable, so don't bother trying. Trends, macro analysis, relative value studies etc all totally useless as the whole market is currently event driven which nobody can predict, and therefore trade.

If on the other hand you're looking to buy and hold, the current levels are beginning to look like an OK entry point to start getting in - my personal maxim has been that when everyone is bullish, get out (e.g. all the personal finance newspapers bullish on tech stocks throughout 2000/1). Now we have harbingers of doom on every corner (how many times have we heard about the Great Depression recently?) , price expectations are beginning to adjust to a universally gloomy level i.e. stocks are getting cheap. We will still have a few legs down in the market as the consumer stops spending, gloomy retail sales data are published, a few household name companies hit the wall, housing market corrects another 20-25% etc. but a lot of this is already in the price....

There are excellent returns for staying in cash, e.g. Natwest e-Savings at 6.50% AER, so I'm sticking my money there for now, and feeding a bit of money into the stock market every month or so for the next while.

Jampott, can we revisit this thread in 2013 and see how much egg is required for requisite faces? :mrgreen:


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## scoTTy (May 6, 2002)

Steve_Mc said:


> The current markets are simply untradeable, so don't bother trying. Trends, macro analysis, relative value studies etc all totally useless as the whole market is currently event driven which nobody can predict, and therefore trade.


I think some clever people are making an absolute killing at the moment. With gains in a day of 15%, you could be setup financially for a long time.....or of course get very very deep into trouble.


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## kmpowell (May 6, 2002)

scoTTy said:


> Steve_Mc said:
> 
> 
> > The current markets are simply untradeable, so don't bother trying. Trends, macro analysis, relative value studies etc all totally useless as the whole market is currently event driven which nobody can predict, and therefore trade.
> ...


I was doing ok up until a few days ago. I've been Spreadbetting both the FTSE and DJ (only a couple of quid a point!), trying to make calls on how the markets will open. But, I made a wrong 'short' call on the Dow last Wednesday afternoon and lost all my gains from the previous few days.

I got cocky and didn't bother with a stop loss. It's too easy to get carried away, so I've stopped myself for the time being. I have a few friends though who have made literally 10s of thousands over the past couple of weeks simply by SB'ing the FTSE and DJ at 'open'. They've had some serious risky margin open though!!


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## Steve_Mc (May 6, 2002)

Anyone buy VW shares? Up 400% in the last 2 days!


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## BAMTT (Feb 22, 2004)

Classic short squeeze this am back around 600 ish now, certainly help the rest of the indexes though, With the far east at 1980's levels yest i think we might be nearing the bottom (not talking my own book at all  )


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